Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 270807
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
207 AM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 905 PM MDT SAT JUL 26 2014

DUE TO ENVIRONMENT BEING MORE STABLE THAN ANTICIPATED...HAVE
LOWERED RAINFALL CHANCES OVER EAST CENTRAL COLORADO FOR THE
EVENING. HAVE NOTICED SOME STORMS ARE FINALLY ABLE TO MOVE INTO
EAST CENTRAL COLORADO AS ELEVATED CAPE HAS BEGUN TO DEVELOP AND
THE 500MB SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES IN. MODELS KEEP THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST PART OF THE AREA TONIGHT WHICH IS
WHERE THE ELEVATED CAPE WILL BE. STORM MOTION WILL BE AROUND 10
MPH SO IF STORMS DEVELOP THEY WILL BE MOVING VERY SLOW TO THE
SOUTHEAST WHICH MAY LEAD TO HEAVY RAINFALL. MOVED CHANCES FOR RAIN
FURTHER SOUTH...MAINLY ALONG/SOUTH OF HWY 40 WHERE LIFT AND
INSTABILITY ARE BEST. AM STILL THINKING THE MAJORITY OF THE STORM
COVERAGE WILL BE SOUTH OF GREELEY/WICHITA COUNTIES WHERE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY IS STRONGEST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 647 PM MDT SAT JUL 26 2014

ALLOWED HEAT ADVISORY TO EXPIRE FOR NORTON/GRAHAM COUNTIES.

AS FAR AS PRECIP. FORECAST GOES...AM HAVING MORE CONFIDENCE THE
BETTER STORM COVERAGE WILL BE JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA WHERE STORMS
ARE CURRENTLY FIRING. OVERNIGHT ELEVATED CAPE DEVELOPS OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES IN. LIMITING
FACTOR WILL BE THE STRENGTH OF THE WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING
OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA AT THAT TIME. WILL CONTINUE TO
ANALYZE LATEST MODEL DATA BEFORE ALTERING FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 131 PM MDT SAT JUL 26 2014

LATEST WV IMAGE AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOW BROAD RIDGE STILL
IN PLACE FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
INTO THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A PLUME OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO ROUND THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE
INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS. A CLOSED LOW IS CENTERED
OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA CANADA WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OUT AHEAD OF
THIS ENTERING THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE IS IN PLACE OVER OUR CWA WITH SEVERAL WEAK CONVERGENT AREAS
ACROSS OUR SOUTH...AND A COLD FRONT ENTERING NORTHWEST KANSAS FROM
COLORADO AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA.

RAP ANALYSIS INDICATES MODERATE SB/MIXED LAYER CAPE VALUES AHEAD OF
MEAN SURFACE TROUGH AXIS ACROSS MOST OF OUR CWA. SHEER IS NOT
PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE...HOWEVER WITH SOUNDINGS SHOWING INVERTED V
TYPE SOUNDINGS AND DCAPE 1000 J/KG OR HIGHER MICROBURST POTENTIAL IS
THERE FOR ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FAVOR THE
SOUTHERN PART OF OUR CWA FOR THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE...MAINLY ALONG
AND AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. WEAK FORCING ROTATING FROM THE NORTH
LATER THIS EVENING MAY ALSO SUPPORT ADDITIONAL POST FRONTAL
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. POP ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO REFLECT
THESE TRENDS THROUGH TONIGHT. SUBSIDENT AIR MASS APPEARS TO BE IN
PLACE OVER MOST OF THE CWA SUNDAY...THOUGH BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON
UPSLOPE COMBINED WITH OVERRUNNING ALONG STALLED FRONTAL ZONE IN
COLORADO MAY ALLOW FOR SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT INTO THE SW
PART OF THE CWA IN THE AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES SATURDAY SHOULD BE COOLER...HOWEVER THERE IS QUITE A
BIT OF SPREAD DUE TO NAM/SREF LINGERING PRECIP MOST OF THE DAY
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. I AM NOT FAVORING THIS SOLUTION AS BETTER
SUPPORT FOR SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM (AND ANY LOW CLOUD COVER) WOULD BE
FURTHER WEST AND SOUTHWEST. IF THE NAM/SREF WERE CORRECT THEN HIGHS
IN THE LOW 80S FOR WESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA. BASED ON THE FAVORED
WARMER SOLUTION WE SHOULD SEE HIGHS WARM TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES IN
THE UPPER 80S FOR A LOT OF THE CWA SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MWEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 204 AM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

UPPER AND LOWER LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN QUIET FOR THE LONG TERM
PERIOD AS A DOMINANT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL KEEP MAIN JET FLOW WELL
TO THE NORTH OF THE TRI STATE AREA.  HOWEVER...MODEL SOUNDINGS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE AMPLE PROFILE MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THE FIRST HALF OF THURSDAY.  PRECIPITABLE WATER
AMOUNTS BETWEEN 1.25 AND 1.5 INCHES WILL BE PRESENT AREA WIDE AS
LOWER LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW IS BELOW NORTHERLY FLOW ABOVE 700 MB.  THE
COLDER AIR ADVECTION ABOVE 700 MB IN COMBINATION WITH MOISTURE
ADVECTION IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE WILL BRING WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE HIGH PLAINS THURSDAY EVENING AS WINDS
BELOW 800 MB SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST...WHICH SHOULD END WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.  WARM AIR ADVECTION
AND A ZONE OF CONFLUENCE OVER THE FORECAST AREA COMBINED WITH SOME
CAPE ALOFT FRIDAY AFTERNOON COULD SPARK SOME THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IN EASTERN COLORADO INTO FRIDAY EVENING. A SURFACE
BOUNDARY JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BRING CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 70.

THE COOLER AIR ADVECTION IN THE MID LEVELS WILL BRING BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE MID 70S TO THE LOWER 80S.  HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
REBOUND WITH WARM AIR RETURNING ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID 80S.  LOW TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE ABOUT
NORMAL IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1119 PM MDT SAT JUL 26 2014

VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE 6Z TAFS. LATEST GUIDANCE HAS PUSHED
THE BETTER CHANCE FOR MVFR CEILINGS FURTHER WEST OF KGLD SO THAT
WILL NO LONGER BE A CONCERN. OTHERWISE LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT WILL
BECOME BREEZY LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS A SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH INTO KANSAS. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT
AGAIN SUNDAY EVENING. STORM COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN WELL SOUTHWEST
OF KGLD.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JTL
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...JTL






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