Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 170940

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
340 AM MDT Mon Jul 17 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 330 AM MDT Mon Jul 17 2017

An upper level low pressure area that has been over the area the
past few days is forecast to lift northeast toward McCook by 18z
then across the far northeast and east by days end and finally out
of the area by sunrise Tuesday morning. Plenty of moisture exists in
the vicinity of the low which will help promote shower and
thunderstorm activity, some of which will produce locally heavy
rainfall. For Tuesday and Tuesday night weather disturbances will
graze the far northern zones around periphery of upper ridge
continuing a low chance for thunderstorms. For Wednesday 596dm upper
high is centered over central Kansas into Oklahoma with better
moisture needed for precipitation well west and northwest of the

High temperatures today in the low to mid 90s. For Tuesday 850mb
temperatures warm another 3F to 7F supporting highs in the mid 90s
to around 104, hottest in extreme southwest Nebraska and Norton/Hill
City areas. For Wednesday looking again for highs in the upper 90s
to around 107, hottest in McCook southeast through Hill City. Low
temperatures through the period in the low 60s to low 70s (west to

A Heat Advisory may be needed Tuesday afternoon through early
evening generally along and east of a line from near Benkelman
Nebraska to Hoxie and Gove Kansas. In this area heat index values of
104 to 108 degrees are forecast. For Wednesday afternoon through
early evening A Heat Advisory may be needed generally along and east
of a line from near Trenton Nebraska to Hoxie and Quinter Kansas
where values of 104 to 108 are forecast.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 151 AM MDT Mon Jul 17 2017

Thursday and Friday: CWA will be influenced by the upstream side of
H5 high pressure. Instability will begin to increase very slowly
from the west and northwest through the afternoon; however, CAPE
looks to only build to around 800 to 1500 J/Kg with the Canadian
being the most aggressive model. A few thunderstorms could form
along a theta-e boundary through Thursday afternoon mainly in the
far northwestern corner of the CWA. This boundary will sag further
southeastward and weaken as we head into Friday, bringing
thunderstorm chances slightly further into the CWA. Once more,
instability will be high enough for thunderstorm development during
the afternoon and evening with a few stronger storms possible.
Temperatures on Thursday and Friday will be well above average,
climbing into the upper 90s to just over 100 degrees both days.

Saturday through Monday: A cold front will push through the region
on Saturday with more widespread thunderstorm chances during the
afternoon and evening hours. CAPE will approach 2000 J/Kg with deep
layer shear around 45 knots. This should provide an environment that
will support a few strong to severe thunderstorms along and ahead of
the front as it moves from northwest to southeast, slowing down atop
the CWA overnight. Another round of thunderstorms will develop
Sunday afternoon as the front slowly moves out of the region. The
influence of the ridge will move further east at this point;
however, the general tendency of the pattern will likely build
another ridge to the west as we head into Monday and Tuesday.  High
temperatures Saturday through Monday will be much cooler with highs
generally reaching the middle 80s to middle 90s with Saturday being
the warmest day of the three.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 330 AM MDT Mon Jul 17 2017

KGLD, vfr conditions expected through the period. May have rain
showers in the vicinity from 12z to 13z otherwise should see
decreasing cloudiness through the day into the evening. Some high
clouds move in after midnight. Winds generally from the south to
southeast around 10kts except in the 15z-22z timeframe where
gusts to 20kts possible.

KMCK, vfr conditions expected. However, locally heavy rainfall
from showers and thunderstorms could produce mvfr visibilities
anytime from taf issuance through about 00z. Winds begin light
from the southeast but increase slowly through the day with gusts
to 25kts possible from the south/southeast through 00z. After 01z
winds subside to 11kts from the southeast.




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