Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 221020
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
419 AM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 419 AM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

FORECAST PROBLEM WILL BE ACTIVE WEATHER PERIOD FROM TODAY INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING. THIS INCLUDES STRONG WINDS...FIRE WEATHER...AND
THE CHANCE/SEVERITY OF THUNDERSTORMS. SATELLITE SHOWING AN AMPLIFIED
AND BLOCKY PATTERN FROM THE CENTRAL PACIFIC INTO WESTERN NORTH
AMERICA. FLOW BECOMES MORE PROGRESSIVE EAST OF THAT.

AT JET LEVEL...HARD TO TELL WITH THE BULK OF THE JET NOT OVER LAND
BUT LOOKS LIKE THE ECMWF WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN GFS...UKMET
...CANADIAN AND NAM. AT MID LEVELS...MODELS WERE CLOSE. BASED ON
SATELLITE THE NAM STARTED OUT BETTER INITIALLY WITH SYSTEM NEAR THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND SOUTHWEST CANADA. HOWEVER BY 06Z ALL THE
MODELS WERE SPOT ON. UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED THAT THE ECMWF MAY
HAVE A SLIGHT ADVANTAGE OVER THE OTHER OUTPUT. THE ECMWF...SREF AND
NAM WERE DOING THE BEST ON THE SURFACE WIND AND PRESSURE FIELD. THE
SREF...NAM AND CANADIAN WERE DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE OTHER
OUTPUT ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD.

UNCERTAIN FORECAST DUE TO THE SYSTEM THAT WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR
DRIVING THE WEATHER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY...
IS STILL NOT OVER LAND YET AND HAS NOT BEEN SAMPLED BY THE UPPER
NETWORK YET. MODEL WAFFLING ON THIS TIME PERIOD HAS NOT GENERATED
ANY CONFIDENCE AS WELL.

TODAY/TONIGHT...3 HOUR PRESSURE FALLS AND TIGHT GRADIENT CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT NEAR TO A LITTLE ABOVE WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. HEIGHT FALLS
OVER THE GREAT BASIN IN ADVANCE OF STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
EXCEED 100 METERS. USUALLY LARGE HEIGHT FALLS LIKE THAT WILL INDUCE
LARGE PRESSURE FALLS AND CAUSE A STRONG LEE TROUGH TO DEVELOP. THAT
CAN BE SEEN IN THE GRADIENT AND PRESSURE FALLS. BELIEVE MODELS MAY BE
UNDERDOING THIS SO WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR MY
WESTERN HALF.

NEWER MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS THE INSTABILITY AXIS...LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AND MID LEVEL LIFT OCCURRING A LITTLE LATER IN THE DAY
AND A LITTLE FURTHER WEST. SO LOWERED THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON AND CONFINED THE CHANCE TO ALONG AND WEST OF THE
COLORADO BORDER. SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND STRONG LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD
SUSTAIN THE CONVECTION ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BEFORE IT ENDS LATER
TONIGHT. IF THERE WAS MORE MOISTURE AVAILABLE...THE CHANCE FOR STORMS
COULD BE MUCH HIGHER BUT LACK OF MOISTURE WILL LIMIT THE COVERAGE.
EVEN THOUGH THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL NOT BE GREAT...THE SHEAR AND
LAPSE RATES COULD CAUSE A FEW STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS.

HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST LOOKED REASONABLE WITH THE NEWER GUIDANCE
AND CHANGED LITTLE IF ANY. WINDS WILL STAY 15 TO 30 MPH DURING THE
NIGHT AND KEEP THE MINS RATHER WARM FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT...UNLIKE YESTERDAY...MODELS ARE MUCH CLOSER
ON WHEN THE FRONT ARRIVES. THE ECMWF HAS SLOWED UP CONSIDERABLY FROM
YESTERDAY. THE 00Z AND 06Z NAM WERE VERY CLOSE TO EACH OTHER WITH
THE IT ONLY SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE ECMWF. AS MENTIONED YESTERDAY
DUE TO THE ARRIVAL TIME OF THE COLD FRONT...IT LOOKS LIKE THE
STRONGER SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GET PUSHED TO THE SOUTH AND
EAST OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...IT COULD GET CLOSE TO A WIND ADVISORY
IN THE SOUTHEAST.

SO WITH MORE AGREEMENT ON THE FRONTAL POSITION...FELT A LITTLE
MORE CONFIDENT WITH THE THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF
THE JET WILL BEGIN AFFECTING THE AREA DURING BY LATE MORNING. DURING
THE AFTERNOON THE JET POSITION ACTUALLY SHIFTS BACK TO THE WEST A
LITTLE LEAVING THE AREA...ESPECIALLY THE EASTERN HALF...SOLIDLY IN
THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT. IN ADDITION TO THIS LIFT...VERY STRONG LOWER
AND MID LEVEL LIFT WILL GIVE A GOOD CHANCE TO THE AREA...ESPECIALLY
THE EASTERN HALF. DETAILS WILL STILL NEED TO BE IRONED OUT BUT
FINAL POSITION OF FRONT AND DRY LINE WILL BE A BIG DETERMINER. DUE
TO THE LIFT...INSTABILITY AND LAPSE RATES IN PLACE...CONTINUED WHAT
THE DAY SHIFT DID AND KEPT THE MENTION OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND SLIGHTLY EXPANDED IT. IF ANY ADDITIONAL
SLOWING OF THE FRONT OCCURS...WHAT NOW LOOKS TO BE A SIGNIFICANT
SEVERE WEATHER EVENT COULD AFFECT EVEN A LARGER AREA. AS IT LOOKS NOW
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD END IN THE EAST BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z.

ONCE AGAIN A LARGE AREA OF 10 MB OR HIGHER PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL MAKE FOR A WINDY EVENING. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA WILL BE MET FOR A BRIEF PERIOD. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT THE GRADIENT WINDS MAY BE UNDERDONE AND ANY
THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW COULD ENHANCE THE SPEEDS. BECAUSE OF THE
ABOVE REASONING AND PER A GOOD SOURCE REGION FOR DUST AND PREVIOUS
SIMILAR SCENARIOS IT WAS DECIDED TO ADD BLOWING DUST TO THE GRIDS
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...SOME CLOUD COVER MAY BE AROUND DUE TO SOME
LIFT COMING ACROSS BUT ON THE WHOLE IT LOOKS LIKE A DECENT AMOUNT
OF SUN. WINDS COULD STILL BE A LITTLE GUSTY THROUGH THE DAY AS WELL.
WINDS WILL BE DOWNSLOPE. SOME DISAGREEMENT ON HOW COOL TO MAKE
HIGH TEMPERATURES. MODELS HAVE BEEN RUNNING A LITTLE COOL BIAS
RECENTLY SO DECIDED TO GO BETWEEN THE COOLER AND WARMER GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

FRIDAY...WEAK/BROAD UPPER RIDGE MOVES OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF LARGE
UPPER TROUGH MOVING ASHORE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST DURING THE
DAY THEN INTO THE GREAT BASIN BY 12Z SATURDAY. DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED. GFS/ECMWF 850 TEMPERATURES OF 18C-22C WOULD SUPPORT
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S BUT WITH
EAST/SOUTHEAST WINDS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS FULL MIXING
POTENTIAL MAY BE IMPACTED THUS THE COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO
MID 70S THAT ARE CURRENTLY IN THE FORECAST MAY BE THE WAY TO GO.
LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID 40S.

SATURDAY...UPPER FLOW FORECAST TO BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY AS UPPER
RIDGE AXIS SLOWLY MOVES EAST OF THE AREA. WEST COAST NEGATIVELY
TILTED TROUGH SLOWLY APPROACHES DURING THE DAY THEN MOVES OVER THE
AREA DURING THE NIGHT. STILL TOO EARLY TO GET DETAILED AS SFC
FEATURES...INSTABILITY AND LIFTING MECHANISMS NOT HANDLED WELL BY
ECMWF/GFS THUS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST. NO CHANGES MADE TO SLIGHT
CHANCE AND CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURE
FORECAST ALSO IN QUESTION GIVEN LACK OF AGREEMENT IN FRONTAL
POSITION SO WILL GO WITH CURRENT FORECAST OF LOW 60S NORTH TO NEAR
MID 70S SOUTH FOR HIGHS AND LOW 40S WEST...UPPER 40S EAST FOR LOWS.
BREEZY TO WINDY EAST/SOUTHEAST WINDS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON
WITH A SLIGHT DECREASE OVERNIGHT.

SUNDAY...CLOSED LOW WITHIN NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH FORECAST
TO LIFT NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA AREA DURING THE DAY WITH
PERHAPS A VERY SLOW EASTWARD MOTION SUNDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH DURING THE DAY SUNDAY WITH GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS. OCCASIONAL
GUSTINESS CONTINUES SUNDAY NIGHT. 850 TEMPERATURES DROP INTO THE 5C
NORTH TO 15C SOUTH RANGE BEHIND THE FRONT WITH UPPER 50S TO MID 60S
FORECAST FOR HIGHS. FOR SUNDAY NIGHT 850 TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO
DROP BELOW ZERO FOR MOST OF THE AREA WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW
TO UPPER 30S (WEST TO EAST). WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW
CHANCE POPS FOR RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE DAY. FOR SUNDAY NIGHT
GENERALLY SOME LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE DURING THE EVENING WITH A MIX OF
RAIN/SNOW MOVING INTO PARTS OF FAR EASTERN COLORADO VERY EARLY
MONDAY MORNING.

MONDAY...BREEZY TO PERHAPS WINDY NORTH WINDS EXPECTED MONDAY
DECREASING MONDAY NIGHT. GENERAL IDEA AT 500MB IS FOR THE CLOSED LOW
AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH TO SLOWLY SLIDE SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTHEAST
KANSAS BY 12Z TUESDAY. 850MB TEMPERATURES REMAIN RATHER CHILLY FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH 1C EAST TO NEAR 10C WEST. WONT MAKE CHANGES
TO EXTENDED PROCEDURE FORECAST OF LOW TO MID 50S HIGHS. MONDAY NIGHT
COULD SEE WIDESPREAD FROST/FREEZE CONDITIONS WITH LOWS INT HE MID TO
UPPER 20S. MAY SEE SOME RAIN/SNOW MIX OVER FAR EASTERN COLORADO FOR
AN HOUR OR TWO AFTER SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
RAIN SHOWERS THE REST OF THE DAY. FOR MONDAY NIGHT WILL CONTINUE
WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH MIDNIGHT WITH A MIX OR
CHANGEOVER TO SNOW SHOWERS MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST WITH THE COLDER
AIR AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1152 PM MDT MON APR 21 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT MCK AND GLD THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
DEEPENING LEE SURFACE TROUGH AND CORRESPONDING INCREASING PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL PRODUCE INCREASING SOUTH WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS REGION ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE TROUGH THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF TONIGHT AND DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY MOVE OFF THE FRONT RANGE
AS THE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE VICINITY OF THE KANSAS/COLORADO
BORDER AREA. HAVE PLACED A PROB30 GROUP INTO THE GLD TAF BETWEEN
22Z-01Z...BUT EXPECT SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DIMINISH AS THEY MOVE
EAST AND HAVE LEFT ANY MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF THE MCK TAF.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 419 AM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

FOR TUESDAY...DESPITE THE SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS
TO NEAR 45 MPH...RELATIVE HUMIDITIES LOOK TO STAY ABOVE 20 PERCENT
SO DO NOT EXPECT ANY FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS.

FOR WEDNESDAY....GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED IN ADVANCE AND FOLLOWING A COLD
FRONT. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL NE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW 20
PERCENT ALONG AND WEST OF THE COLORADO BORDER. HOWEVER WITH THE
FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA BELIEVE IT WILL BE HARD TO BE ABLE TO
REACH 3 HOURS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. WHERE THE LATER
FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED...THE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE MUCH
HIGHER. SO DID NOT FEEL CONFIDENT ABOUT ISSUING ANY FIRE WEATHER
HIGHLIGHT.

FOR THURSDAY...RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE IN THE 15 TO 20 PERCENT
RANGE. HOWEVER IT NOW LOOKS LIKE WINDS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AS
PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED AND THE 3 HOUR REQUIREMENT WILL NOT BE REACHED.
HOWEVER THIS WILL NEED TO BE LOOKED AT AGAIN.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM MDT /10 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING TO 7 PM
     MDT/8 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR KSZ001-002-013-014-027-028-
     041-042.

CO...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING
     FOR COZ090>092.

NE...WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM MDT /10 AM CDT/ THIS MORNING TO 7 PM
     MDT/8 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR NEZ079-080.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...LOCKHART
FIRE WEATHER...BULLER




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