Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 042015
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
215 PM MDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 106 PM MDT FRI SEP 4 2015

ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
WORK WITH THE LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT. SHEAR AND INSTABILITY PARAMETERS
CONTINUE TO BE UNFAVORABLE FOR A SEVERE THREAT...THOUGH GUSTY
WINDS AND PERHAPS SOME SMALL HAIL COULD ACCOMPANY ANY STRONGER
STORM THAT DEVELOPS. THE SET UP FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE
VERY SIMILAR WITH A STAGNANT PATTERN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 PM MDT FRI SEP 4 2015

SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT...MOISTURE PLUME BISECTING THE AREA FROM
NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST AROUND 00Z SUNDAY STEADILY MOVES
EAST/NORTHEAST BY 12Z SUNDAY BRINGING A DECREASING TREND FOR
PRECIPITATION CHANCES. FOR SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT PRECIP CHANCES NEARLY
NIL AS DRY AIR ALOFT COVERS MUCH OF THE AREA...EXCEPTION BEING THE
PALMER DIVIDE AREA NEAR FLAGLER BUT WITH LITTLE IF ANY INSTABILITY
DOUBT ANYTHING CAN GET GOING.

LOW TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60
WEST...LOW 60S TO LOW 70S ELSEWHERE. HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY LOOK
TO RANGE FROM THE MID 80S TO NEAR 90 IN FAR EASTERN COLORADO...LOW
90S TO AROUND 100 ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA...HOTTEST IN THE HILL CITY AND NORTON AREAS. LOW
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 50S WEST TO LOW 60S EAST.

MONDAY...MOISTURE AVAILABILITY INCREASES QUITE A BIT GENERALLY
ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS/EXTREME SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA SOMEWHAT FAVORING
CURRENT PRECIPITATION CHANCES. NOT MUCH INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH SO
ONLY ISOLATED CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS. FOR MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE
EXPECTING A GENERALLY DRY FORECAST...PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS FROM
MCCOOK TO HILL CITY AND POINTS EAST THROUGH MIDNIGHT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S WITH LOWS AGAIN IN THE MID
50S TO LOW/MID 60S.

TUESDAY...BROAD UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
BRINGING FURTHER COOLING TO THE AREA. SURFACE HIGH SLOWLY MOVES IN
FROM THE NORTH DURING THE NIGHT BRINGING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
HIGH TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID
80S WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 50S TO NEAR 60.

WEDNESDAY...SFC HIGH MOVES EAST TOWARD THE MIDWEST ALLOWING RETURN
FLOW OF SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH SFC WINDS. 850MB TEMPERATURES ARE
SIMILAR OR PERHAPS A DEGREE OR TWO CELSIUS WARMER COMPARED TO
TUESDAY SUPPORTING AT LEAST BELOW NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES. FOR
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AM EXPECTING CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
BUT A BIT MILDER COMPARED TO TUESDAY NIGHTS GIVEN THE WARMER AIR
ALOFT AND CONTINUED LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SFC WIND. HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID
50S.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY...UPPER LEVEL PATTERN STARTS TO CHANGE WITH BROAD
UPPER RIDGE AXIS BUILDING ACROSS THE WEST AND TROUGH DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TO GREAT LAKES NORTHWARD. SHOULD SEE
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S WITH LOWS IN
THE LOW TO MID 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1214 PM MDT FRI SEP 4 2015

VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON IN EASTERN COLORADO AND SPREAD
NORTHEAST TONIGHT...BUT DUE TO LIMITED COVERAGE WILL NOT MENTION
IN THE TAFS ATTM.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...024



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