Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 281832

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1232 PM MDT Tue Mar 28 2017

Issued at 1232 PM MDT Tue Mar 28 2017

Updated to forecast issued to remove morning wording and to add
in areas of fog for the entire area for the remainder of the
afternoon. Despite light to moderate rainfall occurring over
portions of the cwa...latest obs still showing a decent range of
visibility in fog.


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday night)
Issued at 410 AM MDT Tue Mar 28 2017

Main forecast concern will be upcoming prolonged rain event.
Satellite showing a somewhat amplified but still progressive wave
train from the Pacific into North America with this flow remaining
split across the country. Next upper storm system is now
digging/strengthening near the four corners region.

The Nam followed by the Gfs was starting better with the jet
associated with the incoming upper trough. Models started out well
at mid levels. Satellite would indicate that the Nam and Ecmwf are
handling the position of incoming storm system the best through 06z.
The Nam and Ecmwf were starting out the best on the surface pattern.
the Sref, Gfs, and Nam looked to be starting out the best on the low
level thermal field.

Today/tonight...Preliminary shortwave and jet lift ahead of main
upper system has produced a narrow band of light rain showers. This
and the thicker mid level cloud cover has diminished the extent
of the fog. Once this band moves through the fog and stratus may
pull back to the west a little. So I adjusted accordingly.

Right rear quadrant of the upper jet continues to affect the
northwest half of the area in the morning. And as yesterday this
rotates during the afternoon and will affect the western half. Mid
level forcing, moisture, and instability increase through the day as
storm system moves in from the southwest. Will start off with a
brief lull early this morning then the precipitation will ramp up
through the day. So followed that trend in the pops. Minor note,
there will be little if any chance to warm up from expected low
temperatures so lowered the high temperatures for today.

Models start showing some disagreement during the night. General
consensus is that right rear quadrant will continue to affect the
western portion of the area with a hint of a coupled jet structure
occurring as well. Mid level circulation stays to our south as it
slowly shifts to the east. This will shift the flow aloft from east
to northeast. Mid/upper level deformation and frontogenetic forcing
strengthen as well. So widespread rain is expected. Considering the
moisture content of atmosphere, strong lift, and some instability,
have moderate rain and embedded thunderstorms in the forecast for
this afternoon into tonight.

For phase late tonight into very early Wednesday, believe the
temperatures will stay in the mid and upper 30s in the far west.
Based on that and forecast soundings, there looks to be a short
period of a rain and snow mix in the far west.

Wednesday/Wednesday night...Jet axis/lift moves across the area
during the day with again another hint of a coupled jet structure
setting up. Mid level low slowly moves east and north through the
day decreasing moisture and lift from west to east, mainly during
the afternoon. With the moisture content and good lift, kept the
moderate rain for most of the area. With no instability indicated,
kept thunderstorms out of the forecast. Again minor note, little to
no temperature rise during the day is expected, and lowered high
temperatures a little from what the builder gave me.

Thursday/Thursday night...Shortwave ridging and a much drier air
mass in advance of next storm system will keep this period dry. High
temperatures will be much warmer with plenty and kept what the
forecast builder gave me.

For the night, low level moisture returns as incoming low will
strengthen lee trough. All the models showing a saturated low level
air mass later tonight. This makes sense considering widespread wet
ground and the synoptic setup. So introduced fog into the forecast
for late in the night into early Friday morning.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 410 AM MDT Tue Mar 28 2017

Model solutions show reasonably good agreement through Saturday, but
become increasingly divergent between Sunday and Monday.

The upper ridge in place over the central U.S. Friday morning moves
east as the next low pressure system to affect the forecast area
moves through the 4-corners region and into northern New Mexico by
Saturday morning.

On Saturday night and Sunday the low moves slowly into the panhandle
region of Texas.  By late Sunday into Monday the upper pattern is
out of phase according to the solutions offered by the ECMWF and
GFS.  While the ECMWF is more progressive moving features eastward
across the country, the GFS is slower and deeper with the series of
low pressure centers over west Texas and approaching off the coast
of southern California.  Confidence in any particular solution past
Saturday is very low.

While Friday looks like it will stay dry with the upper ridge in
place, there is a good fetch of Gulf moisture developing ahead of
the associated deepening surface low over eastern New Mexico and
Texas panhandle region by late Friday.  The result of this good
moisture fetch ahead of the approaching upper low is a large area of
rain that develops across the central and southern high plains
region as the upper low moves east of the Rockies.  Rain is expected
to develop by late Friday and persist through Saturday night before
moving mostly out of the area by Sunday before rain redevelops over
the area on Monday.

Temperatures through the long term period should remain near to
slightly above climatological normals for this time of year with
highs in the upper 50s to middle 60s and lows in the 30s.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1137 AM MDT Tue Mar 28 2017

IFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period at both KGLD
and KMCK. Strong upper low will move slowly from New Mexico to
southern Kansas during TAF period which will bring periods of
mostly light to occasional moderate rain to the entire area.
Ceilings will generally hold around 200-500 feet. Fog will become
more of an issue overnight with visibility dropping to 1 mile or
less. Winds will transition from easterly this afternoon to NNE
overnight into Wednesday morning.




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