Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS63 KGLD 051652
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1052 AM MDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 402 AM MDT THU MAY 5 2016

FORECAST ISSUES WILL BE HOW HOT IT GETS THROUGH FRIDAY...LOW
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FRIDAY NIGHT...AND THE ENTIRE FORECAST FOR
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. SATELLITE SHOWING A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
FLOW FROM THE PACIFIC INTO NORTH AMERICA. PATTERN IN THIS ENTIRE
AREA HAS BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS. MID AND UPPER
RIDGING IS ESTABLISHING ITSELF OVER THE AREA WITH A DRY AIR MASS IN
PLACE.

AT JET LEVEL...MODELS ARE STARTING OUT FINE. AT MID LEVELS...MODELS
DID WELL WITH THE CANADIAN/GFS/NAM DOING THE BEST. THE SREF...
CANADIAN...ECMWF WERE DOING THE BEST ON THE SURFACE PATTERN. THE GFS
...CANADIAN...AND NAM WERE DOING THE BEST ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL
FIELD.

TODAY/TONIGHT...THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE IN CONTROL
BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS AND ALLOWING FOR PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. SURFACE
RIDGE PULLING OFF TO THE EAST AND A STRENGTHENING LEE TROUGH WILL
CAUSE SOUTH WINDS TO DEVELOP AND INCREASE. NEW DATA SUPPORTS GOING
HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST AND MADE ONLY MINOR CHANGES AS HIGHS RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. VERY MILD CONDITIONS TONIGHT AS
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES.

FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT...MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE GRADUALLY WORKS ITS WAY
TO THE EAST WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. AT THE SAME A LARGE...COMPLEX AND SLOW MOVING CLOSED LOW
DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. MODEL GUIDANCE
TRENDED WARMER FROM YESTERDAYS GUIDANCE. SO DID RAISE MAXES A LITTLE
WITH A FEW 90 DEGREE READINGS SHOWING UP.

MODELS STILL HAVING TROUBLE WITH HOW FAR SOUTH TO BRING A COLD
FRONT. MOST OF THE MODEL OUTPUT HAS TRENDED FURTHER NORTH WITH ONLY
THE GFS AND ECMWF BRINGING THIS INTO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
AREA. THE GFS LOOKS TOO FAR SOUTH. A COUPLE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVE
THROUGH DURING THIS PERIOD WITH SOME DIFFLUENCE SETTING UP DURING
THE NIGHT. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BRING LIGHT QPF INTO THE NORTHERN
AND WESTERN LOCATIONS. CONSIDERING THE SHORTWAVES AND PROXIMITY OF
THE FRONT HAVE PROBLEM KEEPING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THOSE AREAS
ALTHOUGH THE NORTHWARD TREND OF THE FRONT IS A LITTLE
DISCONCERTING.

SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...A UNCERTAIN AND COMPLICATED FORECAST
DURING THIS PERIOD. THE AREA WILL SEE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP.
HOWEVER...MODEL DIFFERENCES AND MESOSCALE INFLUENCES FROM THESE
STORMS MAKE IT MORE DIFFICULT IN PINPOINTING WITH MORE CERTAINTY THE
FAVORED LOCATIONS. AGAIN THIS WILL BE TIED TO WHERE EXACTLY THE
FRONT WILL END UP.

ALSO CAUSING DIFFICULTY IS THE PASSAGE OF A NUMBER OF SHORTWAVES
DURING THIS PERIOD. DURING THE MORNING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM MAY
OCCUR AS EARLY AS MID TO LATE MORNING AS DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND AN
INITIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH. MODEL OUTPUT/WPC DOES HAVE
QPF IN THE MORNING. ALSO THE CAP BY MORNING DECREASES ALONG WITH A
DRAMATIC INCREASE IN CAPE.

IN GENERAL THE FRONT WILL BE NEAR OR OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF
OUR AREA IN THE AFTERNOON AND THEN SLOWLY SAGS SOUTH THROUGH THE
NIGHT OR WAFFLES BACK AND FORTH. STRONGER SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. WHAT IS THE MOST CERTAIN AND
IMPRESSIVE IS ALL THE MODEL OUTPUT SHOWS A RATHER STRONG A LEFT
FRONT QUADRANT OF MID/UPPER JET OVER THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON WITH
THIS FEATURE STICKING AROUND DURING THE NIGHT.

SO DO EXPECT STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP IN THE
AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY EXTEND WELL INTO THE NIGHT DUE TO THE JET
LIFT AND PROXIMITY OF THE FRONT. THE FAR SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST LOOK TO
HAVE THE LEAST CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO THE DRIEST AIR AT LOW
LEVELS. THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST LOOKS TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE DEEPER LIFT AND BETTER MOISTURE IN THIS AREA.
ALL THIS COULD BE FOR NAUGHT IF FRONT IS MUCH FURTHER SOUTH OR NORTH
THAN EXPECTED OR IF THE MESOSCALE OVERLY INFLUENCES WHAT HAPPENS.
ALSO DEPENDING ON HOW THINGS EVOLVE...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL COULD
OCCUR IN THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA.

OF SECONDARY CONCERN IS HOW WARM IT GETS AND THAT WILL DEPEND ON
THE FRONT. FRONT DOES LOOK FURTHER NORTH THAN YESTERDAY. WITH THAT
AND COLLABORATION...RAISED MAXES OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF. IT ALSO
LOOKS BREEZY TO WINDY DURING THIS PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM MDT THU MAY 5 2016

AN ACTIVE PATTERN GENERATES SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES DURING
THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH THE BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR PRECIPITATION ON
SUNDAY. CHANCES TAPER OFF ON MONDAY BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN WHEN THE
NEXT DISTURBANCE LOOKS TO IMPACT THE AREA MIDWEEK. TEMPERATURES
REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S
TO MID 70S AND LOWS IN THE 40S.

ON SUNDAY...MOISTURE IMPROVES OVER THE HIGH PLAINS AS THE UPPER LOW
MOVES OUT OF THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. IN
THE MEANTIME...THE SURFACE LOW SEEMS TO STAY SOMEWHERE AROUND THE
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE/WESTERN KANSAS. AT THIS TIME...CANNOT RULE OUT
SEVERE WEATHER AGAIN ON SUNDAY MAINLY FOR THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE
AREA DEPENDING ON BOUNDARY/DRYLINE PLACEMENT. THE SPEED OF THIS
SYSTEM WILL DETERMINE HOW LONG THE SEVERE THREAT WILL EXIST IN THE
REGION SINCE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY COULD QUICKLY PUSH EAST.

THE UPPER LOW CONTINUES NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE UPPER MIDWEST ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON
MONDAY AS THE THE SYSTEM SLOWLY EXITS THE REGION. TUESDAY LOOKS
DRIER TO START...BUT GUIDANCE IS PICKING UP ON A SECOND UPPER LOW
COMING IN FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS. THIS SYSTEM PROGRESSES
EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BRINGING THE NEXT ROUND OF
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO THE HIGH PLAINS LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
MODELS VARY WITH THIS SECOND DISTURBANCE...SO WILL SEE HOW THINGS
PLAY OUT IN THE UPCOMING DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1050 AM MDT THU MAY 5 2016

VFR AT BOTH TERMINALS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SKC-SCT250 EXPECTED.
DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW/TROUGH OVER COLORADO WILL STRENGTHEN LOW
LEVEL FLOW OVERNIGHT WITH 18035-45KTS DEVELOPING ATOP 8-12 KT SFC
WINDS. BEST CHANCES FOR LLWS WILL BE 09-14Z AT BOTH TERMINALS.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...JBH
AVIATION...DLF


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.