Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
FXUS63 KGLD 251946
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
146 PM MDT WED MAY 25 2016
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 146 PM MDT Wed May 25 2016
Across the forecast area this afternoon...the remnants of the low
cloud deck which lingered over central portions of the area...now
resides only over far eastern zones and continues to thin out. Temps
in areas where clouds have finally left have rebounded nicely by
several degrees. Most of the CWA now in the 70s with some upper 60s
east. Weak ridging over the area giving the region mainly variable
conditions of 5 mph or less.
Going into tonight and on into Thursday...weak shortwave moving
through the Central Rockies at this time...will move at a northeast
vector across mainly northern zones tonight. Models do hint at
potential for some light rw/trw development..but chances do look
thin. Have put in a slight chance for isolated trw/rw concentrating
in locales over NE Colorado and those along the Nebraska/Kansas
This quick moving system will give way to an approaching warm front
going into Thursday morning. Out ahead of this front...do expect
linger isolated rw/trw...along with areas of fog. The focus of the
fog will be from a few hours before sunrise thru the mid morning
hours before burning off.
It will be along and ahead of this frontal boundary that the focus
for the next round of severe wx will be for the afternoon hours.
Going into the afternoon hrs Thursday...increased instability occurs
with the influx of higher dewpts...daytime highs reaching will into
the mid to upper 70s...and strong wind shear. Strong to severe
thunderstorms are expected to develop...and as a result the storm
prediction Center has put the majority of the region into Enhanced
Risk for severe wx...with only a small portion in Slight Risk to the
SW. Have put in enhanced wording for the afternoon hours to reflect
For temps...daytimes highs will range mainly in the mid to upper
70s. Some locales may even reach near 80F in far E/SE zones. Locales
in NE Colorado may only reach near 70F as a result of cloud cover.
Overnight lows tonight will range from the upper 40s west...to the
mid 50s east.
.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 242 AM MDT Wed May 25 2016
At the start of the extended mid level ridging will allow for
periods of dry conditions heading into Saturday. Starting Saturday
night and going through the end of the extended period, expect an
increase chance of rain showers and thunderstorms as shortwaves
will move around the base of approaching upper level low over the
Pacific Northwest/Northern Rockies area.
Temperatures will be in the near to above normal range during the
extended period with highs mainly in the mid to upper 70s, with some
areas reaching the lower 80s. Overnight lows will range in the 50s
with some upper 40s in Northeastern Colorado.
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1128 AM MDT Wed May 25 2016
For KGLD...Mainly VFR conditions after 20z-21z. MVFR skies thru
20z-21z...and 3-5sm -shra br from 04z-08z Thursday.
Winds...Variable from the NW thru 21z then SSE 5-10kts...becoming
ENE around 5kts by 08z Thursday as front approaches.
For KMCK...Mainly VFR conditions...w/ some MVFR from 04z-09z
thursday w/ 3-5sm -shra br. Winds ESE around 10kts thru 00z
Thursday...then ENE 5-10kts.