Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 182016
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
216 PM MDT Mon Mar 18 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above normal temperatures continue through Thursday.

- Unsettled weather returns with increasing rain and snow
  chances and below normal temperatures Friday night through
  Monday.


&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 215 PM MDT Mon Mar 18 2024

Tonight...a surface trough/wind shift is forecast to move through
the area under a generally clear sky. Low temperatures are forecast
to be in the upper 20s to middle 30s.

Tuesday-Tuesday night...an upper low pressure area just south of the
Nevada/Arizona border tonight (Monday night) is forecast to drift
into Arizona during the day then become a bit elongated while moving
into New Mexico overnight. Under a sunny sky, look for high
temperatures to warm into the middle 60s to lower 70s. A few high
clouds are possible overnight with low temperatures in the 30 to 35
degree range.

Wednesday-Wednesday night...at the surface, there is pretty good
agreement on high pressure nosing into the area from the northeast.
building into the area from the northeast. It, along with low
pressure along the front range of the rockies will produce some
breezy east to southeast winds during the day.

At 500mb, the upper low/trough to our southwest in the morning is
forecast to move toward the Texas panhandle during the day then
slowly east into western Oklahoma overnight. The slightly further
southerly track looks to push the prior precipitation chances out of
the area. However, GFS/NAM 850-500mb relative humidity and qpf
suggest a few showers and possibly a few thunderstorms from central
Yuma county southwest toward Flagler where some low level wind
convergence is advertised. Will need to watch this scenario for
possible including of precipitation into the forecast here over
the next day or so. We should also mention that stratus and fog
are possible Wednesday night west of Highway 25 as rich
boundary layer moisture moves into the area from the
south/southeast.

High temperatures are forecast to be in the upper 50s to upper 60s
with low temperatures in the lower to middle 30s.

Thursday-Thursday night...the forecast area is under northwest flow
aloft. Currently, high temperatures are forecast to be in the middle
60s to lower 70s. Based on NAM/GFS 850mb temperatures and the better
performing temperature guidance from the past 7 days, locations
generally east of Highway 25 may need their temperature lowered as
high pressure and cooler air hold on out there. They may be 3 or 4
degrees to warm at present time. Low temperatures are forecast to be
in the lower to middle 30s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 215 PM MDT Mon Mar 18 2024

Friday...broad, flat upper level ridging moves over the area from
the west, ahead of a low pressure system off the Oregon coast.
Presently, we have 20%-30% chances for light rain showers during the
night which seems reasonable given a wave in the 850-500mb relative
humidity forecasts from the GFS/ECMWF moves off the Colorado Front
Range and through our area. High temperatures are currently forecast
to be in the middle 50s to middle 60s. GFS/ECMWF/GEM 850mb
temperatures suggest this may be a tad optimistic by only a few
degrees so little adjustments were made. Low temperatures are
forecast to be in the upper 20s to lower 30s.

Saturday...a broad upper level trough is forecast to move toward the
Continental Divide. At the surface, low pressure is forecast to
reside somewhere along the CO/KS border during the night. The
increasing pressure gradient will likely produce increasing
southeasterly winds where gusts up to 30 mph are currently forecast.
Breezy south to southwest winds continue during the night. Regarding
precipitation chances, Friday nights precipitation exits the area in
the morning, leaving dry conditions in the afternoon before another
wave moves across the area from the east during the night, bringing
with it 20%-40% chances for light rainfall. With such a tight
pressure gradient, the temperature gradient is just as tight and any
deviation east or west will greatly impact temperatures. For now,
highs are forecast to be in the upper 40s (east) to lower 60s
(west). Low temperatures look to be in the 30s.

Sunday...this mornings GFS/ECMWF/GEM/GEFS models all show a large
upper level trough crossing the Rockies and onto the northern and
central plains. Surface low pressure is currently forecast over
southern Kansas by the end of the day then into central Kansas
overnight as strong high pressure moves in from the north. North to
northeast winds will become breezy with gusts presently up to 35
mph. High temperatures in the middle 50s to middle 60s are currently
forecast and would likely be reached by late morning/early afternoon
before falling from north to south behind the cold front.
Precipitation chances in the form of rain showers slowly increases
from north to south (20%-40%) during the day as moisture wraps
around the surface low. Overnight, precipitation chances continue to
increase (40%-70%) with rain gradually changing over to snow from
northwest to southeast as the colder air moves through. Presently,
under one inch of snow accumulation is forecast, subject to change.
Low temperatures drop into the upper teens to middle 20s.

Monday...precipitation chances (20%-40%) continue during the day,
falling a bit overnight as the large upper trough continues moving
across the area. Light snow will be the dominant weather type. High
temperatures are currently forecast to be in the middle 30s to lower
40s with low temperatures in the middle teens to around 20. It will
continue to be breezy with northerly winds gusting 25 to 30 mph.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1035 AM MDT Mon Mar 18 2024

For KGLD and KMCK...VFR conditions are expected through the
period. A light west-northwest wind under 10kts at taf issuance
will back to the southwest at similar speeds this afternoon.
Tonight, winds veer back to the west-northwest at speeds up to
11kts or so. Tuesday morning, winds continue to veer to the
north at speeds up to 10kts.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99/Trigg
LONG TERM...99/024
AVIATION...99


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