Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 261911
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
111 PM MDT WED AUG 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 110 PM MDT WED AUG 26 2015

WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS RIDGE IN PLACE ACROSS
THE PLAINS WITH 596 DM CENTER AXIS EXTENDING NORTH OVER OUR CWA.
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY ROTATING AROUND WESTERN EDGE OF RIDGE
WITH MOISTURE PLUME EXTENDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AHEAD OF
THIS FEATURE. AT THE SURFACE LO PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM EASTERN
MONTANA ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO AND OVER OUR CWA. A WEAK
STATIONARY FRONT IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE FROM SW NEBRASKA AND ACROSS
CENTRAL KANSAS (NEAR HLC).

THIS AFTERNOON-TONIGHT...VERY DRY AIR MASS...STRONG CAP...AND
LIMITED LARGE SCALE FORCING WILL CONTINUE TO LIMIT CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL. CAP MAY BEGIN TO WEAKEN ALONG STALLED FRONT IN OUR
EASTERN CWA LATER THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER AT THIS POINT
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE A MENTION OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. AS WAS EXPECTED HOT TEMPERATURES AND
FAVORABLE MIXING HAVE RESULTED IN VERY LOW RH VALUES THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF OF OUR FORECAST AREA...WITH
SOME LOCATIONS GUSTING TO NEAR RFW CRITERIA. WITH FUELS STILL NOT
CONSIDERED FAVORABLE FOR RAPID FIRE SPREAD I HAVE HELD BACK ON RFW
ISSUANCE.

THURSDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL ROTATE AROUND THE NORTH SIDE OF
THE RIDGE AND DEEPEN AS IT TRACKS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
LARGE SCALE FORCING WILL OVERSPREAD OUR CWA ON THE SOUTHERN EXTENT
OF THIS FEATURE...WITH DRY AIR MASS INITIALLY LIMITING CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE UNTIL LATER THURSDAY AFTERNOON. RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF
APPROACHING FRONT MAY LEAD TO INCREASED TDS AND HIGHER CAPE VALUES
ACROSS OUR EASTERN CWA. GFS AND NAM BOTH SHOWING VERY DIFFERENT
PICTURE REGARDING MOISTURE/CAPE PROFILES WITH NAM SHOWING BETTER
MOISTURE RETURN AND HIGHER CAPE BY 00Z. EFFECTIVE SHEER VALUES
35KT OR HIGHER WILL BE POSSIBLE...SO IF THE MORE AGGRESSIVE
GUIDANCE WAS TO VERIFY WE COULD SEE A MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT
ROUGHLY ALONG/EAST OF HIGHWAY 83. REGARDLESS OF SEVERE
THREAT...GFS/NAM BOTH SHOW THE BEST PRECIP SIGNAL IN OUR
EAST/SOUTHEAST ALONG PRE FRONTAL TROUGH...AND I RAISED POPS
ACCORDINGLY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 154 AM MDT WED AUG 26 2015

H5 RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY AND BEGINS MOVING
EASTWARD. MID TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES WESTERLY AND EVENTUALLY
SOUTHWESTERLY ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THE RIDGE MOVES OVER THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST AND MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION. GOOD AGREEMENT
BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF ABOUT THE OVERALL PATTERN ARE LEADING TO
ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE WITH REGARDS TO THE MOVEMENT OF THE RIDGE.
MOST OF THE CWA WILL REMAIN DRY ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF EASTERN COLORADO DUE TO THE ADVECTION OF MONSOONAL
MOISTURE ALONG THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE WHERE SLIGHT RAIN
CHANCES ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY EVENING AND INTO TUESDAY. ON TUESDAY
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MARGINAL INSTABILITY ALONG A WEAK THETA E
BOUNDARY FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE WESTERN AND
NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA ONCE MORE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. THIS BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE MOST PART
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD AND LEAD TO SLIGHT RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ONCE MORE ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1150 AM MDT WED AUG 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT BOTH KGLD
AND KMCK TERMINALS. GUSTY WINDS SHOULD DEVELOP AT BOTH TERMINALS
THIS AFTERNOON WITH INCREASED MIXING. AS WINDS DECREASE THIS
EVENING A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL JET WILL LEAD TO LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEER 35-40 KT AT BOTH TERMINALS (FIRST AT KGLD AND THEN AT KMCK).
AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MAY BRING SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORMS TO EITHER TERMINAL BY MIDDAY THURSDAY...HOWEVER
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW IN COVERAGE TO INCLUDE MENTION IN TAFS
DURING THIS UPDATE.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...DR



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