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000
FXUS63 KGLD 181718
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1118 AM MDT Sun Jun 18 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 253 AM MDT Sun Jun 18 2017

Forecast issues will be precipitation chances tonight and Tuesday
and how much to warm up temperatures on Tuesday. Satellite
showing a somewhat amplified but still progressive flow from the
Pacific across North America. The flow has amplified somewhat
especially over North America. A ridge located the west coast with
a trough over the eastern portion of the country. This leaves a
rather strong northwest flow across the region. Cold front has
moved south and east of the area.

Models started out well at jet and mid levels. The Rap and Nam were
doing the best at the surface. The Gfs and Nam were doing the best
on the low level thermal field.

Today/tonight...It does look like precipitation will be done by the
beginning of the day and will make needed adjustments if not. For
temperatures, model guidance looks reasonable and made only slight
adjustments, mainly a little warmer, based on recent performance and
trends.

Fast northwest flow aloft and another shortwave trough looks to come
into the area tonight. At the very least it should increase cloud
cover which should keep the temperatures from dropping too much. If
did not have any cloud cover would go cooler, especially in the east
due to very light winds.

Although less than yesterday, some models still producing light
precipitation during the night. Models show only mid level moisture
present above 700 mb with no instability indicated. However, models
are once again showing a decent baroclinic zone/mesoscale forcing
along with negative theta-e lapse rates over the northern half to
two thirds of the area. If the moisture was a little lower, I would
be inclined to add a mention of rainfall. What looks like will
happen will be virga or sprinkles. Will keep it dry for now and have
the day shift take another look at this.

Monday/Monday night...Above mentioned shortwave trough and
associated cloud cover looks to move out of the area around late
morning/early afternoon. This shortwave looks to be push a surface
trough/weak cold front across the area early in the day. Models look
like they do not cool off temperatures very much if at all.

Depending on which model you choose, 850 mb temperatures are 1 to 3
degrees C warmer. That does make sense since the ridge is building
in and the heights are a little higher. What the builder gave me
looks reasonable and did not make any changes. For the night, the
winds look to be light in the east, and did nudge the mins down a
little.

Tuesday/Tuesday night...Area comes more under of the influence of
ridge building into the area. Models want to move a weak surface
trough into the western portion of the area. However, this looks to
be a day where there is a big warm up. Based on plenty of sun,
westerly flow aloft, and the increase in 850 mb temperatures, the
builder maxes for this day look a little cool. So raised them a
little toward the warmer guidance.

Surface trough mentioned above looks to be a focus for thunderstorm
development in the afternoon. At the same time a weak shortwave
trough/baroclinic zone moves over the surface trough. There is a
narrow axis of instability in advance of these features. Lapse
rates/theta-e lapse rates are favorable for a good response to what
lift is there. There is not a lot of moisture in the column but
enough. The forecast builder gave me 20 percent for the eastern half
of the area through the evening and that looks reasonable for now.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 216 AM MDT Sun Jun 18 2017

The upper ridge over the southwestern CONUS breaks down on Wednesday
and Thursday as a couple of shortwaves travel along the Canadian
border, sending cooler air south. Disturbances pass through the
zonal flow from Colorado, generating shower and thunderstorm chances
each afternoon and evening. Better forcing will be north of the
region, resulting in generally low PoPs.

Cool air continues to filter into the High Plains on Friday with a
cold front passing through. Dry weather is currently anticipated.
However confidence is low Friday into Saturday due to differences in
guidance. At this time, precipitation chances return on Saturday,
but will continue to monitor.

A cooling trend is anticipated during the extended period with highs
in the 90s on Wednesday falling into the upper 70s through mid 80s
on Saturday. Low temperatures follow suit, generally falling from
the 60s on Wednesday night to the upper 50s/low 60s Friday night.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1115 AM MDT Sun Jun 18 2017

VFR expected at both KGLD and KMCK through the TAF period. Surface
high will move across the area today, resulting in light and
variable winds. Tonight...isolated showers/virga will be possible
associated with weak disturbance in the northwest flow aloft, but
not expected to have any operational impacts.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...JBH
AVIATION...024