Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 221115

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
515 AM MDT Wed Mar 22 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 345 AM MDT Wed Mar 22 2017

Upper ridge axis shifts slightly eastward today but still remains
over the area resulting in above normal temperatures. Only
limiting factor will be cloud cover, which should erode west to
east through the day. So kept cooler temperatures in eastern areas
while northeast Colorado will warm well into the 60s. No fire
weather concerns today due to persistent southeast winds and
higher dew points. Low level moisture return overnight and weak
shortwave trough climbing the ridge will result in a few light
rain showers which may skirt the eastern part of the forecast
area late.

Large scale forcing gets underway Thursday afternoon with approach
of the deep system in the Four Corners which will emerge onto the
southern and central plains. Still considerable differences
between the models on the mesoscale set up for Thursday afternoon.
NAM has the dry line/surface trough near the Kansas and Colorado
border while GFS has it much further east near Hill City.
Instability axis will be along and east of wherever the dry line
sets up, with weak to moderate instability but excellent deep
layer shear. However, lower levels will be quite dry. Might see a
few severe storms with large hail and strong winds, but low
confidence on location. The other concern Thursday afternoon will
be fire weather. Lowest humidity and strongest winds will be in
northeast Colorado and adjacent counties in Kansas and Nebraska.

Instability gradually weakens Thursday evening with thunderstorm
threat diminishing, but attention shifts to precipitation type on
the back side Thursday night and Friday. NAM continues to be the
most aggressive model with rain changing to snow or a mix, and
possibly strong winds, as far east as Highway 25 by Friday morning.
Surface based layer will be above freezing, so even if a change
over occurs it will melt on contact, so little if any accumulation
anticipated at this point. However, will need to monitor the wind
speeds on Friday as the NAM suggests it will be close to high
wind warning criteria. Precipitation chances will continue into
Friday night with this slow moving, wound up system, with the
rain/snow line slowly moving eastward.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Tuesday)
Issued at 345 AM MDT Wed Mar 22 2017

An active pattern continues in the extended, along with near to
above normal temperatures.

Precipitation chances exit the region at the start of the forecast
period, with only a slight chance of showers for the extreme eastern
portion of the area early Saturday morning. Shortwave ridging builds
in behind the system as it tracks east, bringing dry and warmer
weather to the High Plains for the remainder of the day.

Moisture increases on Sunday as a disturbance moves from the Great
Basin to the Plains. This quick moving wave generates rain shower
chances through the daytime hours before winding down Sunday night.

Flow aloft turns northwesterly on Monday as a shortwave ridge forms
once again between disturbances. This leads to a brief dry period,
followed by the return of precipitation Monday night and Tuesday
when a potentially strong system develops over the west coast. There
is a lot of variation among guidance at this point regarding the
timing and position, so will continue to monitor this system as
discrepancies are resolved.

Temperatures do not vary much throughout the extended period, with
highs in the upper 50s to upper 60s and lows in the 30s.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 515 AM MDT Wed Mar 22 2017

Low level southeasterly winds around the periphery of a surface
high will continue through the TAF period, occasionally gusting to
20-25kts. Ceilings at KGLD will hover right around VFR/MVFR
through the morning hours, then gradually lift by late morning to
early afternoon. Ceilings at KMCK should stay VFR through today,
but may lower later tonight to MVFR or even IFR by early Thursday
morning with a stray shower possible.


KS...Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday
     evening for KSZ001-013-027-041.

CO...Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday
     evening for COZ252>254.

NE...Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday
     evening for NEZ079.



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