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000
FXUS63 KGLD 142036
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
236 PM MDT Mon Aug 14 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 236 PM MDT Mon Aug 14 2017

Across the Tri State region this afternoon...summer temperatures
have returned to the area with locales currently seeing a range
mainly from the mid 80s to the lower 90s...under mainly sunny/mostly
sunny skies. SSE winds allowing for moist airmass with dewpts
ranging from the mid 50s to the mid 60s.

For the rest of the afternoon into the evening hours...increasing
low level clouds expected from the west as a weak shortwave slowly
works east from the NC Rockies. Some weak showers activity is
currently working across the NC Colorado in tandem with the
shortwave. Models do track the system out into the Plains Region
later tonight and east of the CWA by Tuesday morning. Even after
sunset...instability will remain over the region prompting the
potential for some rw/trw...but below severe limits. Have continued
trend of pops from previous shift keeping locales along and north of
Interstate 70 seeing the best chances for precip. Overnight lows
will be in the 60s.

Have continued mention of patchy fog after midnight tonight to
around 14z Tuesday.

Going into Tuesday...similar airmass over the region as strong WAA
on southerly flow will once again bring temps into the upper 80s to
lower 90s. Models shift a stronger shortwave off the central Rockies
northeast into the Plains Region. Convection is expected to begin by
late afternoon and carry into the evening hrs. The approach of this
system combined with the very unstable low level airmass will create
the potential for severe wx. The SPC has the entire forecast area
under a Slight Risk as a result. Large hail...damaging winds and
even a few tornados are possible...especially along and north of the
KS/NE border. With high PW values over an inch expected...locally
heavy rainfall could bring about flash flooding issues to many
locales.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 200 AM MDT Mon Aug 14 2017

Showers and thunderstorms persist through the long term with below
to near normal temperatures.

The best opportunity for precipitation during this extended period
is on Thursday. A weak cold front nudges into the area from the
north early in the morning with moisture and instability returning
to the region throughout the day. Additionally, a disturbance
travels across the region through the zonal flow aloft. This
setup generates shower and thunderstorm chances throughout
Thursday, with the best chances in the evening.

The aforementioned cold front lingers near the area heading towards
the weekend. On Friday, a shortwave trough pushes across the
northern and central Plains, keeping slight to low chance PoPs in
the forecast. Drier air moves into the region over the weekend as
upper ridging builds in behind the trough. This will limit showers
and thunderstorms, with only spotty slight chances remaining.

High temperatures are generally in the 80s throughout the period
with a few locations reaching the low 90s on Sunday. Low
temperatures will range from the mid 50s to mid 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1121 AM MDT Mon Aug 14 2017

For KGLD and KMCK...VFR conditions expected through the period.
Slight chance of thunderstorms across the area this evening.
Omitted mention of VCTS or VCSH due to lack of confidence in where
storm formation would be, if any. Skies should remain clear and
winds light and out of a southerly direction through the morning.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...JBH
AVIATION...SME