Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 011021
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
421 AM MDT MON JUN 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 348 AM MDT MON JUN 1 2015

SHORT TERM FORECAST CONCERN IS THE INCREASING POSSIBILITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS AND THE INCREASING POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

THE UPPER RIDGE IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES
TRANSLATES EASTWARD OVER THE PLAINS WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
EXPECTED TO CARRY SEVERAL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW
ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK.

A SURFACE LOW BEGINS TO DEEPEN OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS LATE
TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH A TROUGH DEEPENING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE
FRONT RANGE. WITH GULF MOISTURE CONTINUING TO STREAM NORTHWARD
INTO THE HIGH PLAINS REGION...EXPECT AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP IN THE AXIS OF INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE
DEEPENING LEE TROUGH AND DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET AS THE FIRST
UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE REGION.

A SECOND SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE REGION BY
LATE TUESDAY WITH STRONGER STORMS MOVING EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM
THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AS THE SURFACE
LOW CONTINUES TO DEEPEN SOUTHWARD ALONG THE FRONT RANGE.

BY LATE WEDNESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING...A STRONGER SHORT
WAVE TROUGH LIFTS EAST OF THE ROCKIES ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS REGION. BY THIS TIME THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE IN THE
VICINITY OF THE PANHANDLE REGION WITH A DRYLINE EXTENDING
SOUTHWARD AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN PLACE IN THE VICINITY OF THE
FORECAST AREA. STRONG INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL BE IN PLACE ALONG
WITH A STRENGTHENING NOCTURNAL SOUTHERLY JET AHEAD OF THE SURFACE
LOW WITH SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE DAY
CONTINUING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOES POSSIBLE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 246 AM MDT MON JUN 1 2015

AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD MODELS STILL SHOW THE SAME
PATTEN AS THEY DID THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES GRADUALLY
DEEPENING/AMPLIFYING UNTIL A CUTOFF/CLOSED LOW DEVELOPS TOWARDS THE
END OF THE PERIOD. AT THE SAME TIME THEY SHOW A DOWNSTREAM RIDGE
DEVELOPING. THIS WILL CAUSE A MID/UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER
THE REGION. WITHIN THIS UPPER LEVEL FLOW MULTIPLE SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS... SOME STRONGER THAN OTHERS... ARE ANTICIPATE TO PASS OVER
THE AREA. MEANWHILE... ON THE SURFACE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE UP FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO REGION.

THIS WILL PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY FOR THE TRI
STATE AREA LATER THIS WEEK AND OVER THE WEEKEND. LOOK FOR RAIN
SHOWERS AND CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS TEMPERATURES HOLDING IN
THE MID TO UPPER 70S RANGE WHILE THE LOW TEMPERATURES DIPS INTO THE
UPPER 50S FOR THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1142 PM MDT SUN MAY 31 2015

VFR TO IFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE 6Z TAFS. CLOSE TO SUNRISE
A FEW DIFFERENT MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR THE TAF SITES INDICATE IFR
CEILINGS DEVELOPING FOR A FEW HOURS. WAS INITIALLY SKEPTICAL OF
THIS...BUT AFTER MORE INVESTIGATING THREE DIFFERENT MODELS HAD
VERY SIMILAR CEILING HEIGHTS FOR THE TAF SITES WITH AN ENSEMBLE
MODEL INDICATING A 50-50 SHOT AT THOSE CEILINGS. CLIMATOLOGY ALSO
SUPPORTS THE TIMING OF THE LOWER CEILINGS...ALTHOUGH THE ODDS OF
HAVE CEILINGS THIS LOW ARE NOT TOO GOOD. WITH SEVERAL DIFFERENT
MODELS AND AN ENSEMBLE ALL SHOWING THE SAME THING...THIS BOOSTED
CONFIDENCE TO PLACE A MENTION IN THE TAFS. LOW CEILINGS WILL CLEAR
OUT BY MID MORNING IN TIME FOR THE SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME
BREEZY. THERE WILL BE SOME STORM CHANCES FOR BOTH SITES DURING THE
NIGHT. HOWEVER WILL NOT PLACE A MENTION OF STORMS IN THE TAF AT
THIS TIME.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...BW
AVIATION...JTL



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