Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 080255
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
855 PM MDT MON JUL 7 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 855 PM MDT MON JUL 7 2014

DOWNWARD TREND IN SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE THIS
EVENING. MONITORING SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER COLORADO. DEPENDING ON
THE CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS...A STORM OR TWO MAY BE ABLE TO SLIDE INTO
EAST COLORADO LATER THIS EVENING. OVERALL...ATMOSPHERE HAS
STABILIZED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH...LOCATED ALONG
AND SOUTH OF A KIT CARSON COLORADO TO GOVE KANSAS LINE. IN
ADDITION...SHORTWAVE TROUGH HAS PASSED THROUGH WITH SUBSIDENCE
MOVING IN ON THE BACK SIDE...REDUCING CONVECTIVE CHANCES FURTHER.
HAVE ADJUSTED THE FORECAST TO FIT CURRENT TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 146 PM MDT MON JUL 7 2014

UPPER FLOW WILL BE NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
TONIGHT AND CONTINUE BUILDING INTO THE AREA TUESDAY.

THE NAM BRINGS THE COLD FRONT INTO THE NORTHERN FA EARLY THIS
EVENING.  THERE IS GOOD FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT THIS
EVENING.  SURFACE DEWPOINTS FROM 55 TO 60 WILL BE ALIGNED WITH THE
COLD FRONT AS WELL. CAPE WILL RANGE FROM 1400 TO 2800 J/KG AND SHEAR
WILL RANGE FROM 30 TO 40KTS AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH ACROSS
THE FA.  BOUNDARY LAYER HELICITY VALUES WILL BE HIGH ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT ISOLATED TORNADOES IN THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE FA NEAR THE
FRONT. VERY WARM TEMPERATURES AT H7 (16,17C) WILL NEED TO BE OVERCOME
FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP. PLAN TO CONTINUE CHANCE POPS FOR THIS EVENT.

SUBSIDENCE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TUESDAY AND WILL PRECLUDE A
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OTHER THAN POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED STORM NEAR
THE FRONT OVER THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE FA.  OTHER THAN A SLIGHT
CHANCE TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN THAT AREA, POPS WILL BE NIL.

MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL COOL TO THE LOWER 60S ACROSS MOST
AREAS WITH MID 60S POSSIBLE IN THE EASTERN FA.  MAX TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY WILL BE COOLER WITH READINGS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 146 PM MDT MON JUL 7 2014

GOING INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...MODELS BEGIN SHIFT OF BROAD 500MB
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY...TO MORE OVER THE
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK...BEFORE
SHIFTING BACK WEST BY THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

DOWN TO THE SURFACE...MODELS BRING SURFACE RIDGE OVER EASTERN KANSAS
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH LEE-SIDE TROUGH DEVELOPING
DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY OVER EASTERN COLORADO...SHIFTING SLOWLY
EASTWARD INTO WESTERN KANSAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. A
SHORTWAVE DOES DEVELOP AT BASE OF TROUGH BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND
RIDE ALONG THE REMNANTS OF SYSTEM AND SETTLE OVER THE REGION FOR THE
WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. AS A RESULT OF SYNOPTIC SETUP...THE CHANCE
FOR TRW/RW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. INITIALLY BEST
CHANCES WILL OCCUR OVER WESTERN ZONES ASSOCIATED WITH DEVELOPING
LEE-SIDE TROUGH...THEN TRANSITION TO MORE BROAD COVERAGE THEREAFTER
AS SHORTWAVE SETTLES OVER THE AREA. MODELS POPS OF 20-40 PERCENT
LOOK GOOD. THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH THESE STORMS WILL
HAVE TO BE WATCHED WITH PW/S 1.00-1.50" FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING
POTENTIAL.

850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD FROM
AROUND +20C AT NIGHT UP TO AROUND +30C/+31C DURING THE DAY. WITH
RADIATIONAL COOLING EFFECTS AT NIGHT AND ALMOST FULL SUNSHINE DURING
THE DAY...THE FORECAST AREA WILL SEE OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING IN THE
UPPER 50S/LOW 60S...AND HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING WELL INTO THE
90S(WHICH WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL). SOME VARIATION IN
DAYTIME HIGHS ARE POSSIBLE BY A FEW DEGREES AS A RESULT OF CLOUDS
AND EXPECTED CONVECTION THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 535 PM MDT MON JUL 7 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A STORM HAS
DEVELOPED SOUTH OF GLD AND WILL CONTINUE ITS HEADING SOUTHEAST.
COLD FRONT WITH ASSOCIATED WIND SHIFT REMAINS JUST NORTH OF GLD AND
SHOULD MOVE THROUGH OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. NEXT AVIATION
CONCERN IS STORMS OVER SE WYOMING AND NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. HAVE
PLACED VCTS IN BOTH TAFS AS THIS ACTIVITY MAY BECOME A LINE AND
MOVE THROUGH ACCORDING TO SOME HIGH RES MODEL GUIDANCE. ONCE
STORMS CLEAR THE AREA...CALM CONDITIONS...CLEARING SKIES AND WEAKER
WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED AS FRONT SURGES SOUTH.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RRH
SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...RRH






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