Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 191756
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1156 AM MDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1139 AM MDT TUE AUG 19 2014

LATEST MODEL DATA AND SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATE THE WARM FRONT TO
BE NEAR HIGHWAY 24...WITH THE FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA EARLY THIS EVENING. SOMEWHAT DIFFICULT TO PIN
DOWN WHERE STORMS WILL FIRE/MOVE SOUTH OF THE FRONT WHERE MODELS
SUGGEST ISENTROPIC LIFT TO DEVELOP DESPITE FAIRLY STOUT LOW LEVEL CINH.
AT THIS TIME HAVE THE HIGHER CHANCES FOR RAINFALL OVER
GREELEY/WICHITA COUNTIES WHERE NEAR TERM MODELS HAVE BEEN
SUGGESTING STORMS WILL INITIALLY DEVELOP.

DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE AFTERNOON STORMS SHOULD BEGIN TO
FIRE ALONG ADVANCING WARM FRONT. AM THINKING HAIL UP TO 2 INCHES
IN DIAMETER WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS SINCE THE 0-6KM
SHEAR IS SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...NEAR 30KTS...AND THE CAPE PROFILE
IN THE HAIL GROWTH ZONE IS MUCH BROADER THAN YESTERDAY WHEN GOLF
BALL SIZE HAIL WAS REPORTED. DUE TO SLOW STORM MOVEMENT AROUND
15MPH HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIKELY WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP.

DID REMOVE THE TORNADO MENTION FROM THE HWO. LOOKING AT 0-1KM EHI
AND SHEAR...BOTH SHOW A LOW POSSIBILITY OF THE ENVIRONMENT BEING
SUITABLE FOR TORNADO DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER CANNOT NOT RULE OUT A
POSSIBILITY OF ONE DEVELOPING ALONG THE WARM FRONT...BUT DO NOT
HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO KEEP THE MENTION IN ANY PUBLIC PRODUCTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 AM MDT TUE AUG 19 2014

TODAY-TONIGHT...STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM NEAR FLAGLER TO
LEOTI THIS MORNING EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH/NORTHEAST TOWARD THE KS/NE
BORDER BY 18Z CONTINUING NORTH AND OUT OF THE AREA BY 00Z. FOR
TONIGHT BROAD SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED. AS FAR AS
PRECIPITATION CHANCES...PLUME OF BETTER MONSOONAL (700-300) MOISTURE
STARTS TO INFRINGE ON THE FAR WEST/NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA BY
12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING. WILL KEEP SOME SMALL CHANCES OF PRECIP FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST AS CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH THIS
AFTERNOON. TONIGHT SHOULD BE DRY. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO
MID 90S IN EASTERN COLORADO...MID 90S TO NEAR 100 EAST OF THE
STATE LINE. LOWS IN THE 60S. A FEW 70 DEGREE READINGS POSSIBLE IN
THE NORTON AND HILL CITY AREAS.

WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MONSOONAL MOISTURE WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES OF 1.25 TO 1.60 INCHES MOVES OVER THE AREA DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH OVERNIGHT HOURS. WITHIN THE PLUME WILL BE A
FEW WEATHER DISTURBANCES THAT COULD PRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE
POPS ACROSS THE AREA WITH THE BETTER CHANCES IN THE VICINITY OF A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S TO LOW
90S IN EASTERN COLORADO WITH MID TO AROUND 100 EAST OF THE STATE
LINE. LOWS AGAIN IN THE 60S EXCEPT A FEW LOW 70S FROM NORTON TO
HILL CITY.

THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...GENERAL IDEA IS FOR MONSOONAL MOISTURE TO
REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA. DIFFERENCES APPEAR WITH REGARD TO TIMING OF
INDIVIDUAL DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW BUT BEST GUESS IS
THAT A LULL IN PRECIP ACTIVITY EXISTS THURSDAY MORNING WITH AN
INCREASE IN PRECIP CHANCES DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S IN EASTERN COLORADO
WITH MID TO UPPER 90S EAST OF THE STATE LINE. LOWS IN THE 60S
EXCEPT AROUND 70 IN HILL CITY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM MDT TUE AUG 19 2014

ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND WITH COOLER TEMPS ON
THE WAY. BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIP WILL BE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH LINGERING CHANCES INTO NEXT
WEEK. CONFIDENCE IS A BIT BELOW NORMAL DUE TO THE LARGE AMOUNT OF
DIVERGENCE IN MODEL SOLUTIONS...BUT OVERALL THE PATTERN SHOULD
SUPPORT DAILY CHANCES FOR STORMS AND COOLER TEMPS.

ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE AN UPPER HIGH WILL DEVELOP AND HOLD STEADY
OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER REGION WITH A LONGWAVE TROUGH
ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. THIS WILL PLACE THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS IN
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT MID/UPPER LEVELS AND BRING ACROSS NUMEROUS
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS TO PROVIDE AMPLE LARGE-SCALE LIFT FOR STORMS TO
DEVELOP THIS WEEKEND. IN ADDITION...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION ON SATURDAY...WITH COOLER TEMPS BEHIND THE FRONT. EARLY
NEXT WEEK IT APPEARS THIS FRONT WILL RETURN NORTH AS AN EAST-WEST
ORIENTED STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS AND EASTERN
COLORADO...SERVING AS A FOCUS FOR STORMS.

TEMPERATURES HAVE MODERATE BUST POTENTIAL DEPENDING ON COLD FRONT
TIMING AND STRENGTH. WHILE THE LATEST GUIDANCE NOW SUPPORTS A
COOLING TREND...PREVIOUS RUNS HAD BEEN RUNNING WARMER DUE TO
PLACEMENT OF COLD FRONT AND ACCOMPANYING COOLER AIR MASS BEHIND THE
FRONT. ULTIMATELY DID NOT MAKE ANY MAJOR CHANGES BEYOND THE USUAL
MODEL BLEND...BUT COULD SEE WEEKEND HIGHS ANYWHERE BETWEEN THE MID
70S AND LOW 90S. SUNDAY AND MONDAY LOOK PARTICULARLY COOL...WITH
MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES DURING THE DAY LIMITING HEATING POTENTIAL.

PRECIP CHANCES LOOK BEST SATURDAY NIGHT WHEN THE COLD FRONT WILL BE
ON ITS WAY OUT AND UPPER LEVEL FORCING APPEARS GOOD. LATEST GFS IS
MUCH LESS PESSIMISTIC REGARDING UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...BUT OTHER RUNS
AS WELL AS ECMWF AND CANADIAN INDICATE GOOD SUPPORT FOR WIDESPREAD
THUNDERSTORMS. CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY WILL BE SUPPORT OF STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THANKS TO OVER 2000 J/KG MUCAPE AND 30 TO 40
KTS 0-6KM SHEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1139 AM MDT TUE AUG 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE 18Z TAFS. WARM FRONT JUST SOUTH OF
KGLD WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...MOVING
INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA BY EARLY EVENING. SOUTH WINDS WILL BECOME
BREEZY BEHIND THE FRONT. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS WILL DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA...WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS
EXPECTED ALONG THE FRONT. AT THIS TIME BELIEVE THE STORM COVERAGE
WILL BE TOO SPARSE TO WARRANT A MENTION IN THE TAF FOR EITHER
SITE. GUSTY WINDS...HEAVY RAINFALL...AND LARGE HAIL UP TO 2 INCHES
IN DIAMETER WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH THE HAIL MORE LIKELY
ALONG THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

OVERNIGHT A SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST...STALLING
OVER THE AREA TOMORROW. ANTICIPATE STORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
SURFACE TROUGH DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON. EAST OF THE TROUGH
SOUTH WINDS WILL BE BREEZY WITH LIGHT WINDS TO THE WEST.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JTL
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...JTL


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