Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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526
FXUS63 KGLD 221933
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
133 PM MDT FRI JUL 22 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 105 PM MDT Fri Jul 22 2016

19Z Water Vapor Imagery and RAP analysis indicated large 597 ridge
centered over eastern New Mexico. WSR-88D KGLD noted small
vorticity center embedded with the morning showers, which
continued to move to the east. At the surface, weak surface
trough/convergent area was noted across eastern cwa extending into
central KS.

Two main concerns for the short term will be ongoing heat and
thunderstorm chances. A weak elevated cap this morning allowed for
scattered storms to develop with rather weak forced ascent.
Similar pattern in store for this afternoon as CU field developing
near higher terrain, but not seeing any organized sfc features to
focus storms on. Convection allowing models have been struggling
with the pattern so overall confidence in evolution is low. A few
storms will form off the higher terrain and push east tonight but
with winds aloft weak and shear minimal not expect to see a lot
of organization. Another round of elevated storms possible tonight
along edge of H7 thermal ridge. Relatively strong WAA develops
across MCK and NRN area and maintains itself for several hours.
Looks like a good chance for LFC`s to be reached in this area and
do not see a reason why a storm or two wont from after 06z.

For Saturday...Cold front will work its way across Nebraska
through the day. While cooler air will likely remain to the north
through the day, surface trough ahead of front may provide area
for potential convective initiation. Instability should be
favorable for severe weather, but wind shear rather weak in warm
humid airmass south of front/trough. Given persistent near sfc
convergence and instability think thunderstorm chances look good,
but with weak shear do not expect to see a lot of storm
organization.

For the heat, already seeing 105 heat indices across advisory area
today so will let things stand as is. For tomorrow, looks like
dewpoints will dry out a bit during the afternoon but with temps
remaining around 100 will see some borderline heat index values
across a portion of the area. With the heat continuing, will
slightly expand current advisory for Saturday.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 227 AM MDT Fri Jul 22 2016

Long term will begin with ridging beginning to take shape over the
Four Corners region and general troughing in the middle and upper
Mississippi River valley on Monday. A series of H5 shortwave
troughs will move from northwest to southeast Monday through
Wednesday along the outer northeastern fringes of the ridge. This
will slightly enhance the afternoon PoPs on Monday and especially
on Tuesday when a stronger shortwave pushes across the CWA. The
mean flow aloft during the Monday/Tuesday time frame will be west
to northwest. This will shift to more of a westerly flow as we
head into Wednesday due to a weakening of the western ridge over
the southwestern States. Cross mountain flow and lee troughing
will likely develop toward the end of the period, leading to a
continued unsettled pattern with daily afternoon thunderstorm
chances.

Temperatures during the early extended period will be around or just
above the seasonal average as the western high pressure influences
the region, especially the western/southwestern portions of the CWA.
Toward the end of the period, I expect afternoon highs to be right
around the seasonal average of upper 80s to lower 90s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1132 AM MDT Fri Jul 22 2016

With warm and humid airmass and periods of weak forcing...overall
confidence in forecast specifics fairly low. A few thunderstorms
will be near KGLD around 01z...with second round of elevated
storms possible after 6z at MCK. Confidence too low to bring down
any flight categories and if storms do form...cloud bases will be
at or above 050.


&&

.GLD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Saturday for KSZ002>004-015-016-029.

     Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for KSZ014-028.

CO...NONE.
NE...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Saturday for NEZ080-081.

     Heat Advisory until 6 PM MDT this evening for NEZ079.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRM
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...JRM



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