Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 160846
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
246 AM MDT Sat Mar 16 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Benign weather through early next week.

- Unsettled weather pattern returns mid-week, mainly Wednesday
  into Thursday. Light precipitation (rain) possible. Hazardous
  weather presently not anticipated.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 240 AM MDT Sat Mar 16 2024

Synoptic Overview: A pronounced upper level ridge /omega block/
anchored to the Pacific Coast.. and a cut-off low, trapped
within, over the Desert Southwest.. will persist.

Benign weather, characterized by dry conditions and near average
temperatures, will prevail through the weekend.. in association
with an increasingly subsident /confluent flow aloft/ synoptic
regime over the Central Plains.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 200 PM MDT Fri Mar 15 2024

Tuesday...this mornings GFS/ECMWF/GEM/GEFS models are
advertising the upper low over western Arizona Monday to slowly
move into the four corners area of Colorado by 12z Wednesday. At
this time, the only impact for area is a bit of increasing
cloudiness from the southwest overnight. High temperatures in
the lower 60s to around 70 look good based on typical mixing at
850mb from a blend of the GFS/ECMWF/GEM models and MEX guidance.
Low temperatures fall into the lower to middle 30s.

Wednesday...the upper low is forecast to become an open wave as
it moves across the area during this time period. Enough
moisture exists in the 850-500mb layer to support some isolated
(20%) chances for a few rain showers. Based on model qpf, we may
need to introduce some pops into the forecast during the day.
High temperatures remain mild for mid March with readings in the
middle 60s to lower 70s. There is quite a spread in 850mb
temperatures from the GFS/ECMWF/GEM models so further
adjustments to the high temperature forecast (warmer or cooler
than current forecast) are likely. Low temperatures fall into
the middle 30s to around 40.

Thursday...500mb flow becomes zonal in general ahead of some
troughing just about to move onshore across the western part of
the country. No precipitation is forecast. High temperatures are
forecast to be in the lower to middle 60s with low temperatures
in the lower 30s.

Friday...looks like we`ll have some precipitation chances (20%-30%)
move in from the west/northwest ahead of the above mentioned upper
low as moisture ahead of it moves in. High temperatures are
currently forecast to be in the middle 50s to lower 60s with low
temperatures in the upper 20s to lower 30s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 953 PM MDT Fri Mar 15 2024

For KGLD, VFR conditions through the forecast period. Winds,
west-southwest 5-10kts through 16z Saturday, then shifting
northwest 10-20kts. By 19z, becoming northerly and eventually
light/variable by 03z Sunday.

For KMCK, VFR conditions through the forecast period. Winds,
west-southwest around 5-10kts through 14z Saturday, then
northwest. By 16z, north 10-20kts becoming light/variable by
03z Sunday.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Vincent
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...JN


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