Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS63 KGLD 261759
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1159 AM MDT TUE APR 26 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT) ISSUED AT 215 AM MDT
TUE APR 26 2016

A RELATIVELY STRONG H5 TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION AND
SPARKING THUNDERSTORMS IN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
MORNING. FOG IS POSSIBLE THROUGH MID MORNING WITH STRATUS LINGERING
INTO THE MIDDAY HOURS MAINLY OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED FRONT COMBINED WITH GOOD INSTABILITY AND SHEAR IS
CREATING A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP. BEHIND THE FRONT...TO THE SOUTHWEST AND WEST...THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED. WE WILL SEE SLIGHT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
ACROSS THE CWA FROM WEST TO EAST THIS MORNING WITH STRONGER STORMS
DEVELOPING AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. THIS AFTERNOON WE WILL SEE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AT THAT TIME. CURRENT GUIDANCE PUTS THE
STRONGEST CONVECTION MAINLY EAST OF HWY 283 HOWEVER ANYTHING THAT
DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT/DRYLINE COULD QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE WITH
RISKS INCLUDING VERY LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE
VERY SLOWLY ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON AND SPREAD ACTIVITY
EAST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. WEAK JET STREAM FORCING WILL KEEP
THE SYSTEM FROM BEING PUSHED EAST VERY QUICKLY AND AS A RESULT WE
COULD SEE A CHANCE OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS PERSIST INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING. SHORTWAVE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WITH ONLY PARTIAL CLEARING POSSIBLE FOR THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AND INTO THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY) ISSUED AT 215 AM MDT
TUE APR 26 2016

SHORTWAVE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE REGION LATE THURSDAY
AND INTO FRIDAY AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES THE REGION
FRIDAY MORNING. INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE AS THE DAY PROGRESSES AND
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP ALONG THE ASSOCIATED BOUNDARY AND
FRONT. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE AT LEAST MARGINAL INSTABILITY
DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ALONG A THETA E
BOUNDARY THAT WILL BE DRAPED FROM NORTH NORTHWEST TO SOUTH
SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL BE ANOTHER SLOW MOVING SYSTEM WITH
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ONCE MORE ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS THE H5
LOW MOVES OFF TO THE EAST NORTHEAST. LOWER POPS ARE FORECAST FOR
MONDAY AS THE SYSTEM EXITS THE REGION WITH DRY WEATHER ON TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1159 AM MDT TUE APR 26 2016

A WARM FRONT IN THE REGION WILL LEAD TO PERSISTENT MVFR AVIATION
CONDITIONS AT KMCK. STRATUS IS DISSIPATING SOUTH OF KANSAS BORDER
BUT ANTICIPATE STRATUS TO HOLD FIRM AT KMCK. IN ADDITION...TSTORM
DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. INCLUDED VCTS MENTION HOWEVER
COVERAGE MAY BE SPARSE. VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE OBSERVED AT KGLD
THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON. THIS EVENING...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
KICKS OUT OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. EXPECT SHOWER/STORM DEVELOPMENT
ALONG A COLD FRONT OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO. STORMS CONSOLIDATE
INTO A BROKEN LINE...SPREADING SOUTHEAST AND POTENTIALLY IMPACTING
BOTH TAF SITES. AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH...WINDS SHIFT TO
NORTHWEST AND BECOME GUSTY. ALSO EXPECTING ANOTHER ROUND OF
STRATUS TO MOVE IN BEFORE SLOWLY LIFTING TOMORROW MORNING AS WINDS
PICKUP AGAIN.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...RRH



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.