Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 161143
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
543 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 543 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

UPDATE ISSUED TO REMOVE MENTION OF FOG IN ALL ZONES. PERSISTENT
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS OVERNIGHT COMBINED WITH SOUTHERLY
FLOW...ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN ZONES HAS KEPT THE AIRMASS MIXED
KEEPING FOG AWAY. EXPECTING CLD DECK TO REMAIN THRU MORNING HRS
BEFORE CLEARING OUT LATER TODAY. REST OF FORECAST ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 243 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING
WITH TEMPS RANGING FROM THE MID 40S TO THE MID 50S...WARMEST UNDER
THICKER CLOUD COVER. CURRENTLY SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES EASTWARD
PUSH AWAY FROM THE CWA...ALLOWING FOR SSW FLOW OVER THE AREA. WITH
THIS SET UP AND CLOUD COVER WORKING NORTH OVERNIGHT...WILL ONLY KEEP
IN PATCHY FOG FOR THE REST OF MORNING HRS...AND WILL EVALUATE AT
NEXT UPDATE TIME TO SEE IF REMOVAL IS WARRANTED. OVERALL FOR THE
TODAY/TONIGHT PERIOD NICE WARM 24 HR ON TAP AS WAA WORKS INTO REGION
AS SOUTHERLY FLOW TAPPING INTO WARMER AIR OVER THE SW...AND UPPER
FLOW AT 500/700 MB AIDED BY RIDGE TO OUR WEST. LOW LEVEL INVERSION
OVER THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...SO EXPECT AREAS/PATCHY FOG TO SET
UP MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS WINDS ABATE SOME FROM DAYTIME MAXES.
OVERALL...LOOKING FOR DAYTIME HIGHS TO RANGE IN THE LOWER TO MID
80S...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS DROPPING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S. THESE
NUMBERS WILL DEPEND CLD COVER...BUT WILL BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

MAIN WEATHER FEATURE FOR WEDNESDAY ON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE ABOVE NORMAL WARMER TEMPERATURES BROUGHT ABOUT
BY SFC RIDGE TO OUR EAST. SOUTHERLY FETCH DURING THIS TIME FRAME
WILL BRING TEMPS DURING THE DAY INTO THE MID 80S TO AROUND
90F...ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY. WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING HAS
MODELS DO SHOWING A WEAK 925/850 MB TROUGH STRETCHING OUT FROM THE
EASTERN SIDE OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE CWA. THIS ALONG WITH SE
FLOW AHEAD OF IT FROM RIDGE POSITION...LOOKS TO BRING IN A SL
CHANCE FOR RW/TRW WITH ONLY EASTERN ZONES TO BE AFFECTED. LOW
LEVEL INVERSION STILL HAS CHANCE TO BRING ABOUT AREAS OF FOG IN
MANY LOCALES FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
RANGE IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S WED NIGHT TO WELL INTO THE 60S FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT...AS WIND REGIME FROM THE SE WILL TAP INTO THE
MORE HUMID GULF MOISTURE.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA
ON FRIDAY.  HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE MID 80S BEFORE COOLER
AIR MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.
AS WITH PAST MODEL RUNS...THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME SLIGHT
DIFFERENCES AS TO THE PROGRESSION AND TIMING OF THE UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM INTO THE HIGH PLAINS.  WITH SURFACE FRONTAL FORCING AND SOME
INSTABILITY ALOFT...THERE WILL BE INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER FRIDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY ACROSS THE
REGION. ONCE THE SURFACE FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY
MORNING...SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION
WITH HIGHS OVER THE WEEKEND REACHING THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S. AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD TO THE WEST...WHICH WILL BRING DRY
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION FOR SUNDAY AND INTO THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 543 AM MDT TUE SEP 16 2014

MVFR SKIES BKN020-030 THRU MIDDAY THEN VFR FOR REST OF FORECAST
WITH SCT030 BECM SKC BY 00Z WED. SSW WINDS 10-20KTS...BECM WSW
5KTS FOR GLD BY 07Z WED...VRB05KT FOR MCK.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...JN/MK
AVIATION...JN



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