Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 230943
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
243 AM MST FRI JAN 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 213 AM MST FRI JAN 23 2015

FORECAST FOCUS IS ON TEMPERATURES AS NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED
IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE INTRUDES FROM THE WEST COAST INTO THE
INTERMOUNTAIN REGION BETWEEN FRIDAY AND SUNDAY. GENERAL TROUGHING
REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE UNITED STATES WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION.
SEVERAL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW WITH THE
MAIN ONES EXPECTED TONIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT. IN INCREASE IN MID
TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH THESE
WAVES.

WITH A STRENGTHENING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW
THROUGH THE COLUMN WITH SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORT WAVE
TROUGH ON SUNDAY...COULD SEE SOME BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON SUNDAY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT A GENERAL
WARMING OF TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES WELL
ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S BY SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 213 AM MST FRI JAN 23 2015

FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD...DRY AND WARM WEATHER BEGINS NEXT WEEK
BEFORE A PATTERN CHANGE ALLOWS COOLER...NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO
RETURN BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. OVERALL NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS
PRESENTLY ANTICIPATED.

TO BEGIN NEXT WEEK...ALL INDICATIONS SUGGEST THAT WELL ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE A CERTAINTY FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. 850 MB
TEMPS CLIMB TO 13-16 DEGREES CELSIUS ON MONDAY...WHICH LOOKS TO BE
THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK. A BRIEF COOLING IN 850 TEMPS IS
INDICATED TUESDAY BUT REBOUNDING TO NEAR 13 DEGREES CELSIUS AGAIN BY
WEDNESDAY. A STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES...WEST AND SOUTH WINDS...STRONG MIXING EACH DAY AND CLEAR
SKIES ARE FACTORS THAT FURTHER EXPLAIN WARM TEMPERATURES SUGGESTED
BY MEX/ECE GUIDANCE. IN ADDITION...THERE HAS BEEN A COOL BIAS WITH
RESPECT TO MOST GUIDANCE RECENTLY. THEREFORE...BROUGHT TEMPERATURES
UP SEVERAL DEGREES...ESPECIALLY FOR MONDAY. FORECAST MONDAY`S HIGHS
TO BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S...TUESDAY`S IN THE LOW TO UPPER
60S AND WEDNESDAY`S TO BE IN THE LOW 60S. TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY MAY
NEED TO BE NUDGED UP MORE BUT THE THREAT OF A TROUGH/COLD FRONT
PASSING DIDN`T BRING CONFIDENCE TOWARD MAKING A WARM ADJUSTMENT.

BY THURSDAY...A PATTERN CHANGE SHOULD OCCUR AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE BREAKS DOWN. THE TRI-STATE REGION SHOULD BE SANDWICHED BETWEEN
THE LARGE EASTERN UNITED STATES TROUGH AND A DEVELOPING CLOSED LOW
OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. THIS WOULD SUPPORT SOME COOLER
AIR...NEAR NORMAL TEMPS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...MOVING BACK IN. AS
FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES...SPLIT FLOW IS TYPICALLY NOT A GOOD SIGN
FOR OUR REGION AND WHICH SYSTEM BECOMES DOMINANT FOR OUR WEATHER IS
ANYBODY`S GUESS. MAINTAINED THE SLIGHT CHANCES GIVEN BY THE CENTRAL
REGION INITIALIZATION PROCEDURE BUT WILL NEED TO SEE MODELS COME
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT BEFORE PRECIP CHANCES HAVE MORE CONFIDENCE
BEHIND THEM.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1000 PM MST THU JAN 22 2015

KGLD...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 12KTS AT TAF
ISSUANCE EXPECTED THROUGH 09Z BEFORE VEERING TO THE WEST AROUND
10KTS 10Z-14Z. WINDS THEN BECOME NORTHWEST AROUND 13Z BY 15Z AND
GUST NEAR 30KTS FROM 17Z-22Z AS A SFC TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. GUSTS
SUBSIDE AROUND 00Z-01Z. CLOUDS INCREASE DURING THE LATE MORNING
THROUGH EARLY TO MID EVENING AND SOME MVFR CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE
FROM 23Z THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD.

KMCK...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS FROM TAF ISSUANCE TO 09Z
LIGHT FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH WEST WINDS UNDER 10KTS FROM 10Z TO
15Z. SFC TROUGH MOVES THROUGH AROUND 16Z WITH NORTHWEST WINDS
AROUND 12KTS. START TO GET GUSTS AROUND 25KTS FROM 19Z-22Z WITH
SUBSIDING GUSTS AND OVERALL SPEEDS AFTER 23Z. SIMILAR TO KGLD
CLOUDS INCREASE MID TO LATE MORNING THEN DECREASE QUICKLY AFTER
00Z. MAY SEE SOME MVFR CLOUDS AFTER 23Z.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...RRH
AVIATION...99


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