Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 170534

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1134 PM MDT Wed Aug 16 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 216 PM MDT Wed Aug 16 2017

Forecast issues will be how cool it gets tonight and onset of
thunderstorms tomorrow. Precipitation should be done by the
beginning of the period. Winds will become light and variable and
stay the lightest in the eastern portion of the area. So lowered the
lows a little with the eastern portion of the area having the
potential to be cooler.

Surface boundary moves into the far western portion of the area late
tomorrow. At the same time shortwave trough will move over the top
of this. There looks to be no cap. So thunderstorms should develop
in eastern Colorado. Severe parameters would indicate that
thunderstorms will have a chance to become severe, especially right
after this period.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 102 PM MDT Wed Aug 16 2017

A relatively active pattern will emerge over the next week. A
shortwave will push through the region Thursday afternoon with an
associated theta-e boundary providing an axis for thunderstorm
development. CAPE values will climb into the 1500 to 2000 J/Kg range
with deep layer shear approaching 35 knots. A few strong to severe
storms are possible. West to northwest flow aloft will prevail on
Friday with dry conditions expected.

Another shortwave forms in the lee of the Rockies as we head into
Saturday. Scattered thunderstorms are possible mainly north of
Interstate 70 with an isolated strong storm or two possible. A
strengthening theta-e boundary will develop on Sunday and allow a
more organized setup for strong to severe thunderstorms mainly for
the northeastern portions of the forecast area. There will be a
brief window of opportunity for supercell development along the axis
of higher CAPE, which will approach 4000 J/Kg per 12Z GFS soundings.

Strong to marginally severe storms are possible once more Monday
afternoon in association with a developing area of low pressure that
will traverse the region through the afternoon and evening. Very little
model agreement is in place for Tuesday and Wednesday; however, there is
a general consensus for dry weather on Tuesday with another chance for
showers and thunderstorms on Wednesday.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1130 PM MDT Wed Aug 16 2017

VFR conditions forecast for the TAFs. Surface high is over the
Tri-State Area and will continue to move slowly south through the
rest of the night. This will cause winds to turn to the south for
both sites. Am still expecting thunderstorms to develop in East
Central Colorado late Thursday afternoon and move east. Storm
coverage may increase as storms approach KMCK, but have very low
confidence of any storms approaching the site at this time. Storm
coverage will be even lower for KGLD.




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