Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 250347

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
847 PM MST Fri Feb 24 2017

Issued at 844 PM MST Fri Feb 24 2017

Just completed an update. Main change was to lower the mins a
little, mainly in the eastern portion of the area due to a longer
period of little to no winds and lesser cloud cover. In fact cloud
cover looks not as extensive/thick, especially to north, as
models currently depict. Also started the flurries a little sooner
in the southwest portion of the area per recent radar trends.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 131 PM MST Fri Feb 24 2017

Flurries beginning to wane across the area this afternoon as
shortwave ridging builds in behind the departing system. Not
expecting any further activity this evening, though overnight
might see more flurries moving off the Palmer Divide as a weak
shortwave trough quickly moves out of the central Rockies. No
accumulation is expected with that activity. Some clouds may
accompany it across the forecast area on Saturday as it weakens.
Temperatures will fall into the lower teens tonight and recover to
the upper 30s to lower 40s on Saturday afternoon. Winds will
slacken off tonight but wind chills will still dip into the single

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 1244 PM MST Fri Feb 24 2017

Surface to 700mb flow will remain slightly split Saturday night
through Wednesday before trending more zonal as we head into the end
of next week. A deep synoptic low will develop in northern Canada
late Sunday in to Monday with lobes of low pressure rotating around
the axis, moving southeastward out of western Canada and into the
northern Plains. These H7 lows will extend weak troughs southward on
Monday, Wednesday, and Friday. There is quite a bit of difference in
how the GFS and ECMWF handle the synoptic low, with the GFS giving a
solution where the low is in north-central Canada and the ECMWF
settling for a location in the Hudson Bay region. GFS solutions are
consistently dry with less in the way of cold air moving into the
region thanks to a more zonal scenario across the central Plains.
The ECMWF on the other hand gives the CWA a more northwesterly fetch
aloft thus giving us a better chance of a slightly cooler pattern
and better precipitation chances. Currently, the best chance of rain
and snow will occur on Tuesday night and early Wednesday morning,
along and ahead of a weak trough, with the ECMWF being the favorable
model for this solution. Any precipitation will be very light due to
lack of antecedent moisture advection and weak isentropic lift.

High temperatures Sunday will remain in the lower to middle 40s from
northwest to southeast. Warmer highs in the 50s will prevail on
Sunday with cooler air moving back into the region on Monday
trailing a trough. Near normal temperatures in the middle to upper
40s are expected on Wednesday and Thursday. Overnight lows will fall
into the teens to lower 20s on Saturday night with lower to middle
20s expected Sunday night onward through Thursday night.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 441 PM MST Fri Feb 24 2017

For Kgld...Mvfr conditions are expected for the first couple of
hours of the period. After that vfr conditions are expected as the
cloud layers raise and thin. Light north winds at the beginning of
the period will become light and variable as winds shift to the
southwest at around 10 knots during the overnight/morning hours.
Around 19z the winds will shift to the northwest at around 10

For Kmck...vfr conditions are expected through the period. North
to northwest winds of 5 to 10 knots will become light and variable
around 06z. Around 09z those will shift to the southwest at around
7 knots. Around 18z those winds will shift to the west and
increase to around 12 knots.




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