583
FXUS63 KGLD 021053
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
453 AM MDT Wed Jul 2 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Storm potential returns Friday continuing possibly into next
  week.

- Highs in the 90s throughout the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 257 AM MDT Wed Jul 2 2025

Today through tomorrow, we will be sitting under a high pressure
system that will keep the sky pretty clear and keep our chances
at precipitation pretty low. Through the mid morning this
morning, as a 500 mb high moves off the Rockies from our west to
be absorbed by the larger ridge to our east, some mild vorticity can
be expected in the northern portions of the CWA. This could
lead to a few sprinkles or virga showers, but POPs are being
kept to 10 or less.

Today and tomorrow, thanks to the high pressure to our east, we
can expect southerly winds at around 15 kts, with some gusts
getting around to the 20-25 kts mark, similar to yesterday.
Overnight, winds look to weaken about 5-10 kts, but tomorrow we
can expect sustained winds around 15, maybe 20 kts and gusts up
to 30 kts. However, the NBM is showing gusts up around 40 kts by
the afternoon, which seems too high. Before 1-2Z on the 4th, the
only levels in the vertical column seeing winds above 25 kts is
around 250 mb, and I have my doubts we`re going to mix that
deeply. It seems like the NBM wants the 850 mb LLJ to kick up
around 18Z and that`s where it`s getting these 30-35% higher
winds.

Temperatures today look to warm into the low to mid 90s,
although some locations may hit 97-99. Tomorrow looks to be a
degree or two cooler, but not much difference than today.
Overnight tonight we can expect temperatures to cool into the
60s across the area.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 138 PM MDT Tue Jul 1 2025

Potentially active pattern late week into the following week. H3-5
trof across western N America weakens N as the summer-time pattern
evolves with a monsoonal high across the 4-corners region of the
CONUS. It`s during the evolution we see a return of 1.0 to 1.5 inch
precipitable waters across the central plains and midwest out ahead
of a series of disturbances that train through the broader SW to an
evolving zonal pattern. It`s within this pattern that wave impulses
will invigorate a more organized convective weather event for Friday
seemingly east of our forecast area. Thereafter for the rest of the
weekend into early next week heat and instability will prevail upon
which any lift and forcing mechanisms, if present, will invigorate
additional storm activity.

So, in brevity, organized storms for Friday in our vicinity. A close
eye on a likely evolving dryline out ahead of which instability will
prevail. Better shear parent with an anticipated mid-level trof axis
makes the case for organized storm activity. Just a bit too early to
say with any certainty on convective mode and potential threats.

For the weekend into next week, continued instability beneath the
evolving zonal pattern that we`ll have to watch for any dips with
energy from the N in invigorating shower and thunderstorm activity
across our area. This as a frontal boundary will likely remain over
the N CONUS along which low level winds overnight will focus meso-
scale convective storm systems sweeping southeastward away from our
region so will have to keep an eye out for any potential influences.

As the previous forecaster mentioned, a messy pattern, prevailing S
winds, upsloping both heat and instability. Wash, rinse, repeat of
daily shower and thunderstorm activity in a weak-sheared environment
yielding a low risk for any severe weather. Highs around the low 90s
with lows down in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 448 AM MDT Wed Jul 2 2025

VFR conditions and southerly winds will prevail through the
period, overall a pretty good time to fly. This morning,
southwesterly winds look to gust up around 15-25 kts, and in the
midday they will gradually become southeasterly. In the late
evening, winds should slow to under 15kts, closer to the 10 kts
mark by 12Z Thursday. KMCK has a 5% chance of seeing some virga
showers this morning, ending by 20Z, but no impacts are
expected even if the showers form.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CA
LONG TERM...Sipprell
AVIATION...CA