Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 251753

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1153 AM MDT SUN SEP 25 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Monday)
Issued at 1153 AM MDT Sun Sep 25 2016

A quiet weather forecast with clear skies prevailing through the
short term. Gusty N-NW winds will continue for most of the
afternoon and then abruptly become light and variable around
sunset as the atmosphere stabilizes and winds decouple.

Drier air will continue to filter in from the northwest during
period as a surface high builds in from Wyoming. Excellent
radiational cooling will set up for tonight with calm winds and
dewpoints dropping into the upper 20s. Will issue a frost advisory
for later tonight for our western two tiers of counties. The
situation is a little marginal as most temperatures will hold in
the upper 30s, but low lying areas will likely drop to the 32-35 F
range resulting in patchy frost.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 157 AM MDT Sun Sep 25 2016

At the start of the extended period, an upper closed low is spinning
over the Great Lakes region while another area of low pressure is
over southern California. Upper level ridging establishes itself
between these two lows. The ridge brings dry weather to the forecast
Wednesday through Thursday as it progresses across the Plains and
moves east of the region.

The closed low over the southwestern CONUS shears out on Thursday
and a series of shortwaves bring shower and thunderstorm chances to
the region Thursday night through Saturday. There are still some
differences between guidance regarding the timing of these
disturbances as they move through the southwesterly flow of the
departing ridge, along with how the Great Lakes low pressure will
play out. Will continue to monitor these discrepancies in the
upcoming days. Meanwhile, the next system moves onto the west coast
on Saturday.

Temperatures slowly decrease across the region as the ridge of high
pressure moves eastward. Expect highs in the low to mid 80s on
Wednesday dropping into the upper 70s to near 80 degrees by Friday.
Lows stay generally in the upper 40s to mid 50s.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1153 AM MDT Sun Sep 25 2016

VFR at both TAF sites with clear skies through the period. Gusty
NW-N winds will continue at both sites until sunset then rapidly
become light and variable for the rest of the period as surface high
pressure settles over the area and winds decouple.


.GLD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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