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000
FXUS63 KGLD 151700
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1100 AM MDT SAT MAR 15 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 900 AM MDT SAT MAR 15 2014

GENERAL FORECAST ON TRACK TODAY. ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO ALL
WEATHER PARAMETERS HOWEVER.

EXPECT AN INCREASE IN WINDS THROUGH THE DAY WITH A PEAK FROM 18Z-
00Z AS STRONGER WINDS ALOFT COMBINE WITH 3-6MB 3-HOUR PRESSURE
RISE COUPLET COMING DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST. LOCAL WIND GUST
PROGRAM FROM 00Z NAM SUGGESTING GUSTS FROM NEAR 35KTS ACROSS THE
FAR EAST TO NEAR 45KTS ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA. 12Z GUIDANCE
HAS NOT COME IN YET.

WITH THAT SAID...AIR QUALITY FORECAST GUIDANCE FROM 06Z NAM
SHOWING A PLUME OF DUST ORIGINATING NEAR SIDNEY NEBRASKA BETWEEN
10AM AND NOON TO MOVE SOUTHEAST IN A NARROW CORRIDOR TO GOODLAND
BY NOON. AS THE AFTERNOON GOES ON AND STRONGER WINDS SPREAD ACROSS
THE REST OF THE AREA BLOWING DUST SHOULD EXPAND ALONG THE ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE 3 HOUR PRESSURE RISE COUPLET. THE EXTENT OF JUST
HOW LOW THE VISIBILITY COULD GET IS IN QUESTION BUT LOOKING AT
DUST CONCENTRATIONS FROM THE MODEL SUGGEST AREAS GENERALLY ALONG
AND EAST OF A LINE FROM NEAR MCCOOK TO COLBY TO WALLACE OR TRIBUNE
KANSAS. OF COURSE JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE COULD GET LOCALLY REDUCED
VISIBILITIES BUT THIS IS MY BEST GUESS.

OTHERWISE SHOULD SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 40S NORTHWEST
TO MID 60S EAST BY NOON OR SO WITH STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING
TEMPERATURES AS COLDER AIR MOVES FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. THIS
HAS BEEN ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE GRIDS.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOOK RATHER LIMITED AND CONFINED TO MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON.

NO OTHER CHANGES MADE AT PRESENT TIME. FURTHER UPDATES LIKELY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 301 AM MDT SAT MAR 15 2014

A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM MID DAY THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

THE FORECAST FOCUS IS ON THE WINDS TODAY IN ADDITION TO THE
POSSIBILITY OF PRECIPITATION TONIGHT FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A
COLD FRONT AND TROUGH ALOFT.

A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY MID
DAY TODAY. WITH THE STRONG GRADIENT BEHIND THE FRONT...EXPECT
WINDS TO INCREASE DRAMATICALLY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT FROM THE
NORTHWEST TO THE SOUTHEAST DURING THE LATE MORNING AND INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES SHOULD ALSO BEGIN TO DECREASE AS
WINDS BECOME MORE NORTHERLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. SOME AREAS OF
BLOWING DUST WITH DECREASED VISIBILITY ARE POSSIBLE. IT APPEARS
THE BEST LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION COMES IN WELL AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT...MORE IN
THE 00Z-06Z TIME FRAME AND EVEN THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING WITH
SKIES BEGINNING TO CLEAR BEHIND THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 12Z. HAVE THEREFORE
DELAYED THE INITIATION OF PRECIPITATION UNTIL RIGHT AROUND 00Z WITH
VERY LOW POPS CONTINUING THROUGH ABOUT 09Z AS THE UPPER SHORT WAVE
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH.

SUNDAY WILL BE COLDER THAN AVERAGE WITH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING
WELL INTO THE 70S ON MONDAY AS THE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES MOVES EAST OVER THE PLAINS AS IT IS FLATTENED BY A TROUGH
MOVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON MONDAY. BOTH SUNDAY AND
MONDAY WILL BE DRY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 AM MDT SAT MAR 15 2014

MODEL AGREEMENT HAS ONCE AGAIN IMPROVED FOR THE EXPECTED WEATHER
SYSTEM THAT MOVES ACROSS THE PLAINS TUESDAY. CONFIDENCE IS GROWING
THIS SYSTEM COULD PRODUCE STRONG WINDS FOR THE HIGH PLAINS.
UNFORTUNATELY...IT ALSO APPEARS THAT THERE IS A LOWER CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION AS MODELS TRENDED NORTH WITH THE MOST FAVORABLE ZONE
FOR PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT.

AS FOR THE WINDS ON TUESDAY...THE MAIN COLD FRONT SHOULD BE WELL
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BY TUESDAY MORNING...LIKELY DOWN INTO
OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS. A LARGE MID-LATITUDE CYCLONE WILL DEVELOP MONDAY
NIGHT ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS BEFORE MOVING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS
TUESDAY. ONCE THAT HAPPENS...A STRENGTHENING WIND FIELD ALOFT IS
EXPECTED ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE CYCLONE. THESE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT
SHOULD MOVE OVER THE TRI-STATE AREA TUESDAY. THE BIG QUESTION WILL
BE THE DEGREE OF DAYTIME MIXING TO BRING STRONGER GUSTS TO THE
SURFACE AND IF THERE WILL BE AN PRECIPITATION OR VIRGA TO ASSIST IN
THIS PROCESS. FORECAST ANOMALY PLOTS INDICATE THAT THE WIND FIELD AT
925 MB...850 MB AND 700 MB IS 1-2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS STRONGER THAN
NORMAL. THE GFS MODEL IS INDICATING THE STRONGEST WINDS ALOFT AT
THIS TIME WITH THE EUROPEAN AND CANADIAN MODELS LAGGING BEHIND. THIS
SEEMS TO BE A FAIRLY COMMON TREND WITH THE EUROPEAN AND CANADIAN
MODELS. MOS GUIDANCE HAS PERFORMED WELL FOR THE STRONGER WIND EVENTS
OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF MONTHS...AND MOS GUIDANCE FOR TUESDAY
INDICATES WINDS OF WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA...APPROACHING HIGH WIND
WARNING CRITERIA. THIS PATTERN IS CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORABLE FOR A
HIGH WIND EVENT AND SEVERAL RECENT EVENTS...ESPECIALLY THE HIGH
WIND/BLOWING DUST EVENTS OF APRIL 14 2013...SEPTEMBER 23 2013...
JANUARY 16 2014 AND JANUARY 18 2014...WERE A RESULT OF THIS PATTERN.
THINKING THAT STRONGER WINDS ARE A GOOD POSSIBILITY...ESPECIALLY
WITH STRONG MIXING AND A STRONG...UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND FIELD OVER THE
REGION. WAS NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO PLACE BLOWING DUST IN THE GRIDS
AT THIS TIME AS THERE ARE SOME CONCERNS OF POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION
WETTING THE GROUND. WILL NEED TO CONTINUE WATCHING THIS SYSTEM
CLOSELY FOR WINDS BUT THE THREAT OF PRECIPITATION...AND ANY
POTENTIAL BLIZZARD...HAS DECREASED SIGNIFICANTLY DUE TO MODELS
TRENDING WARMER AND FARTHER NORTH.

OUTSIDE OF POSSIBLE HIGH IMPACT WEATHER TUESDAY...THE EXTENDED
FORECAST APPEARS FAIRLY QUIET WITH PRIMARILY WARM AND DRY WEATHER.
TEMPERATURES WARM FOR THE MID-WEEK BEFORE ANOTHER DISTURBANCE AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PASSES BY LATE IN THE WEEK. SOME GUIDANCE IS
INDICATING POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF THIS FRONT BUT MODEL
DISAGREEMENT IS A PROBLEM. WILL NOT ADVERTISE ANY PRECIPITATION WITH
THIS FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1100 AM MDT SAT MAR 15 2014

KGLD...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TIL 03Z WITH MVFR CIGS FROM 03Z-
14Z. AFTER 14Z VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. NORTHWEST WINDS ALREADY
GUSTING TO 35KTS AT TERMINAL AND PEAK GUSTS OF 42KTS EXPECTED
THROUGH 23Z. ITS IN THIS 20Z-23Z TIME FRAME THAT THE HIGHER GUSTS
MAY CREATE BLOWING DUST WITH VIS AROUND 4SM AND CIGS POSSIBLY 2K
FT. ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE IN THE 23Z-02Z TIME FRAME BUT
CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN TAF AT PRESENT TIME.
OTHERWISE PLENTY OF CLOUDINESS AND REDUCED CIGS AS MENTIONED ABOVE
TONIGHT WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS MID MORNING SUNDAY. WINDS
TONIGHT GUSTING 25-30KTS FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH A DECREASE BELOW
12KTS AFTER 17Z.

KMCK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 04Z WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
MVFR VIS/CIGS FROM 21Z-02Z IN BLOWING DUST. PEAK WIND GUSTS DURING
THIS TIME NEAR 40KTS. FOR TONIGHT MVFR CIGS MOVE IN BY 05Z AND
CONTINUE THROUGH 13Z WITH NORTH WINDS GUSTING 25-30KTS. AFTER 13Z
CIGS IMPROVE TO VFR WITH WINDS BELOW 12KTS.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM MDT /8 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
     KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.

CO...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ090>092.

NE...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM MDT /8 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
     NEZ079>081.

&&

$$

UPDATE...99
SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...RRH
AVIATION...99