Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS63 KGLD 192059
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
259 PM MDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 PM MDT TUE AUG 19 2014

LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATE A
RIDGE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
EASTERN NEW MEXICO.  MONSOONAL MOISTURE IS CIRCULATING AROUND THE
RIDGE AND OVER THE HIGH PLAINS.  FURTHER NORTH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
IS LOCATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES.  AT THE SURFACE A WARM FRONT WAS
GRADUALLY MOVING NORTHWARD NEAR THE HIGHWAY 24 CORRIDOR.  BEHIND THE
FRONT DEW POINTS HAVE DROPPED.  TO THE SOUTHWEST A LINE OF STORMS
HAVE DEVELOPED IN AN AREA OF SURFACE CONVERGENCE OVER SOUTHEAST
COLORADO.

FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
NORTHWARD.  DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE AFTERNOON EXPECT STORMS TO
BEGIN TO FIRE ALONG THE FRONT WHERE A NARROW CORRIDOR OF CINH LESS
THAN 50 J/KG WILL DEVELOP.  EXPECT THE BEST STORM COVERAGE TO BE
OVER YUMA COUNTY WHERE MID LEVEL LIFT OVER THE 850MB TROUGH WILL
PROMOTE A GOOD ENVIRONMENT FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT.  THE STRONGEST
STORMS WILL BE ALONG THE FRONT OVER THE NORTH OF HIGHWAY 24.  0-6KM
SHEAR IS 30KTS AND 0-1KM MIXED LAYER CAPE IS AROUND 1500J/KG WHICH
WILL ALLOW SEVERE STORMS TO DEVELOP.  WITH CAPE PROFILES IN THE HAIL
GROWTH ZONE BROADER THAN YESTERDAY WHEN GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL WAS
REPORTED...AM THINKING HAIL UP TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER IS POSSIBLE.
HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIKELY WITH ANY STORM THAT DEVELOP DUE TO STORM
MOTION AROUND 15 MPH.  MEANWHILE OVER THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE AREA
MORE ISOLATED TO POSSIBLY SCATTERED STORMS MAY FIRE WHERE ISENTROPIC
LIFT WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT AND SURFACE CONVERGENCE WILL MOVE
IN FROM SOUTHEAST COLORADO.  DO NOT ANTICIPATE STORMS OVER THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA TO BECOME SEVERE.

THIS EVENING THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN NEBRASKA.  STORM
COVERAGE SHOULD BE CONFINED TO ALONG THE FRONT...MOVING NORTH OF THE
AREA BY MID TO LATE EVENING.  STORM INTENSITY WILL PEAK BY MID
EVENING.

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT OVERNIGHT.  MEANWHILE A SURFACE
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST.

WEDNESDAY THE SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL STALL OVER THE
CENTRAL SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DIAGONAL OF THE AREA.  DURING THE
AFTERNOON MID LEVEL LIFT WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE TROUGH AXIS.
STORM MOTION WILL BE PARALLEL TO THE TROUGH AXIS...SO EXPECT
TRAINING STORMS TO DEVELOP BY LATE AFTERNOON.  DUE TO THE TRAINING
STORMS HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED.

DID NOTICE 0-1KM MIXED LAYER CAPE OF 1500-2500J/KG EAST OF THE
SURFACE TROUGH WITH 25-30KTS OF 0-6KM SHEAR.  THIS MAY ALLOW SOME
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP...HOWEVER THE MAJORITY OF THE
SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE SURFACE TROUGH...SO
WHILE SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE...AM THINKING THEY SHOULD REMAIN
ISOLATED.

WINDS EAST OF THE TROUGH WILL BE BREEZY...SIMILAR TO TODAY WHILE
WINDS TO THE WEST WILL BE LIGHT TO VARIABLE.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 218 PM MDT TUE AUG 19 2014

BLOCKY PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE CONUS...WITH H5
RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SLOWLY TRANSITIONING
TO THE SE US. UPSTREAM A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN
ACROSS THE WESTERN US...WITH HEIGHT FALLS AND SEVERAL FRONTAL
PASSAGES HELPING TO COOL THE AIR MASS OVER OUR CWA BY THIS WEEKEND.
PLUME OF MONSOONAL PACIFIC MOISTURE AND GULF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE
TO ADVECT THROUGH MID-UPPER LEVELS BETWEEN THE MID-UPPER RIDGE AND
TROUGH INTO OUR CWA. AS A RESULT PWAT VALUES WILL CONTINUE TO BE
ANOMALOUSLY HIGH SUPPORTING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN WITH
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP. A SERIES OF EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS/VORT MAXES WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FLOW AND CONTINUE TO BRING
SHOTS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIODS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY NIGHT...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL SLOWLY
TRANSITION EASTWARD WEDNESDAY NIGHT EVENTUALLY DECREASING IN
COVERAGE...BEFORE REDEVELOPING THURSDAY. DEEP LAYER EFFECTIVE SHEER
IS ACTUALLY QUITE IMPRESSIVE WITH VALUES IN EXCESS OF 40KT OVER THE
CWA...AND COMBINED WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY IT LOOKS LIKE WE COULD
SEE ANOTHER SHOT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. HAIL/WIND BEING THE MAIN
EXPECTED IMPACTS AT THIS POINT CONSIDERING THE SHEER PROFILES AND
HIGHER LCLS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL SLIGHT SOUTH AND EAST WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND STALL ACROSS THE CWA...WHICH WILL ALLOW THE AIR MASS TO
COOL SLIGHTLY...THOUGH HIGHS WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR MOST
LOCATIONS (VALUES IN THE 90S).

FRIDAY-TUESDAY...A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND OVER THE CWA LATER THIS WEEKEND...WITH HIGH
TEMPS RETURNING TO AT MOST SEASONAL VALUES IN THE MID 80S BY
SUNDAY...AND DEPENDING ON PRECIP/CLOUD COVER WE COULD SEE TEMPS
COOL OFF MORE THAN THIS. PRECIP CHANCES ALSO INCREASE AS THIS
FRONT STALLS AND AN ELEVATED BAROCLINIC ZONE SETS UP SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. BEST PRECIP SIGNAL (SUPPORTED BY
CONSENSUS GUIDANCE) IS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT WHEN I
HAVE LIKELY POPS IN PLACE. I COULD ACTUALLY SEE UN NEEDING TO BUMP
UP POPS AND POSSIBLY LOWER TEMPS SUNDAY-TUESDAY AS WE GET A LITTLE
MORE CONFIDENCE IN THE TIMING OF THE EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES. FOR
NOW I DID MAKE ANY MAJOR CHANGES FROM CONSENSUS GUIDANCE.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1139 AM MDT TUE AUG 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE 18Z TAFS. WARM FRONT JUST SOUTH OF
KGLD WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...MOVING
INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA BY EARLY EVENING. SOUTH WINDS WILL BECOME
BREEZY BEHIND THE FRONT. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS WILL DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA...WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS
EXPECTED ALONG THE FRONT. AT THIS TIME BELIEVE THE STORM COVERAGE
WILL BE TOO SPARSE TO WARRANT A MENTION IN THE TAF FOR EITHER
SITE. GUSTY WINDS...HEAVY RAINFALL...AND LARGE HAIL UP TO 2 INCHES
IN DIAMETER WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH THE HAIL MORE LIKELY
ALONG THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

OVERNIGHT A SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST...STALLING
OVER THE AREA TOMORROW. ANTICIPATE STORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
SURFACE TROUGH DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON. EAST OF THE TROUGH
SOUTH WINDS WILL BE BREEZY WITH LIGHT WINDS TO THE WEST.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JTL
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...JTL


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.