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000
FXUS63 KGLD 020545
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1045 PM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 PM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

WEATHER DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST CORNER OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY SUNSET THIS EVENING LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
AREA TONIGHT. DRIER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM SHORTLY BEFORE
SUNRISE AND CONTINUES TO SPREAD NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MORNING BEFORE
HIGH CLOUDS MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. NAM/GFS CONTINUE TO SHOW A
SATURATED BOUNDARY LAYER WHICH COINCIDENTALLY MATCHES UP WITH
WHERE SNOWFALL OCCURRED A FEW DAYS AGO. COMPARING IT TO CURRENT
SATELLITE IMAGE SUGGESTS IT BE IGNORED.

SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY ONLY A FEW TENTHS OF AN
INCH.

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY TO WINDY DURING THE DAYLIGHT
HOURS MONDAY. LOCAL WIND GUST PROGRAM SUGGESTING WIND GUSTS AROUND
40KTS POSSIBLE. THIS MATCHES WELL WITH THE HIGHER MAV GUIDANCE WINDS
AND SUPPORTED BY SREF 30 MPH SUSTAINED WIND PROBABILITIES. MET
GUIDANCE WIND SPEEDS A BIT LOWER.

LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT MID TEENS TO LOW 20S.

DIFFICULT HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST MONDAY. ABOVE MENTIONED LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IS CO-LOCATED WITH WHAT THE NAM MODEL THINKS IS
ANYWHERE FROM 1 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW...HIGHEST ACROSS SOUTHERN KIT
CARSON AND ALL OF CHEYENNE COUNTIES IN COLORADO. CO-OP AND COCORAHS
DATA SUGGESTS THESE VALUES ARE GROSSLY OVERDONE. WILL WORK TO IGNORE
NAM/SREF 2M TEMPERATURE FORECASTS. OTHER CONCERN IS HOW FAST THE
WARMER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. GFS (AS HAS BEEN THE
CAST THE PAST FEW DAYS) CONTINUES TO BRING IT IN FASTER AND FARTHER
EAST COMPARED TO THE NAM/SREF/ECMWF/UKMET. SOUTHEAST/SOUTH LOW LEVEL
WINDS ARENT THE BEST FOR BRINGING THIS AIRMASS INTO THE AREA THUS
WILL TREND TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF THE 850MB TEMPERATURE FORECASTS.
SO...WHEN ALL IS SAID AND DONE WILL AIM FOR HIGHS IN THE UPPER
30S TO LOW 40S. COULD SEE MID 40S ALONG THE NEBRASKA/KANSAS
BORDER.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 123 PM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

THE NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN
06Z-12Z MONDAY NIGHT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED ACCORDING
TO SHORT RANGE MODELS...SO WILL DOWNPLAY POPS EXCEPT OVER YUMA
COUNTY COLORADO AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA WHERE ARCTIC FRONT WILL
EXTEND BY 12Z. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...AND THERE IS A SLIGHT DISCREPANCY BETWEEN
THE MODELS WITH TIMING AS THE NAM IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN THE
GFS/ECMWF. THIS STRONG OF ARCTIC PUSH WILL NOT SLOW...SO BOUGHT
THE GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS WITH FALLING TEMPERATURES DURING THE
AFTERNOON. MODEL SOUNDINGS REMAIN DRY UNTIL THE LATE AFTERNOON. BY
THEN...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA IN
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. WITH COLD AIR IN PLACE AND INCREASING LOW/MID
LEVEL MOISTURE...THERE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE OF SNOW TUESDAY
NIGHT. ACCUMULATIONS AGAIN WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN
1/2 INCH.

WILL HAVE SOME LINGERING FLURRIES DURING THE EARLY MORNING
WEDNESDAY...BUT THEN DRY NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS AND CONTINUES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF DEVELOP PRECIPITATION
WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS WYOMING SATURDAY. THIS FEATURE
SLIDES SOUTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...BUT MODELS KEEP THE
SYSTEM JUST TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. OTHERWISE...WARM AIR
ADVECTION REALLY INCREASES THURSDAY WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES
EVENTUALLY REACHING 6-8 DEGREES CELSIUS. SO EXPECT TEMPERATURES
TO REACH INTO THE 50S LATE THIS WEEK...A WELCOME CHANGE FROM THE
PAST FIVE DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1040 PM MST SUN MAR 1 2015

LITTLE CHANGE IN THINKING FROM THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE. FOR KGLD...LITTLE
TO NO SNOW EXPECTED BUT WILL KEEP IT VCSH SINCE IT WILL BE CLOSE.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD WITH NAM/GFS
CONTINUING TO OVERESTIMATE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE. SOUTHERLY WILL
INCREASE DURING THE MORNING AND BECOME GUSTY. HIGHEST WINDS WILL
BE DURING THE DAY WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS NEAR 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS
TO NEAR 40 KNOTS. WINDS WILL DECREASE BY EARLY EVENING BUT STILL
STRONG AND GUSTY WIND SUSTAINED SPEEDS NEAR 20 KNOTS AND GUSTS
NEAR 25 KNOTS.

FOR KMCK...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE MORNING BUT WILL NOT BE
AS STRONG AND GUSTY AS KGLDS. SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF AROUND 22 KNOTS
WITH GUSTS NEAR 32 KNOTS WILL OCCUR UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON WHEN THE
GUSTINESS WILL STOP.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...MENTZER
AVIATION...BULLER