Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS63 KGLD 230803
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
203 AM MDT TUE AUG 23 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday night)
Issued at 203 AM MDT Tue Aug 23 2016

Across the Tri State region this morning...a warm overnight period
persists as the area sits out ahead of a lee-side trough on the edge
of the Front Range. The remnants of an area of slowly moving rw/trw
continues a trudging exit NE but should clear the region over the
next hour or so into SW Nebraska. Otherwise mainly clear skies will
persist as temps range in the mid 60s thru the lower 70s w/ a
southerly wind over much of the CWA...with gusts in spots in the 20-
30 mph range.

As with the past several model runs...the forecast area will expect
to see the lee-side trough work its way eastward off the Front Range
during the day today...followed by a cold front late tonight into
Wednesday that will linger in some fashion over the Central Plains
right into Thursday night.

The result of these aforementioned events will bring an increased
chance for rw/trw over the 72-hour period. The meandering/slow
movement of the expected cold front will mean best chances for
precip are going to occur during the day Wednesday for the entire
CWA...trending ESE into Thursday night with the movement of the
front. High PW values ahead of the front could trigger some storms
producing heavy rainfall like seen during the early evening hrs
overnight in NW Kansas. Training of precip along the front could be
of concern for potential flooding issues and will have to be
monitored. Chances for severe wx conditions appear to be focused
well east of the CWA where the front will tap into better unstable
air over Central/Eastern Kansas...but isolated severe storms could
occur over far eastern zones due to proximity of the front.

For temps...today will have the CWA see one more hot day in the
lower 90s ahead of the movement of the lee-side trough. Cooler
conditions will ensue with the arrival of the cold front...with
highs Wed/Thurs mainly in the 70s. Overnight lows will see a decent
drop as well with upper 50s to mid 60s later tonight giving way to
the 50s for Wed/Thurs nights.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 152 AM MDT Tue Aug 23 2016

Rising temperatures are expected during the extended period as
unsettled weather continues, with thunderstorm chances almost every
period.

On Friday, upper high pressure is located over the southeastern
CONUS while a trough persists over the northwestern portion of the
country. The trough advances from Montana and Wyoming towards the
northern Plains Friday night, bringing the region its best chance of
precipitation during the extended. West to southwest flow continues
into the weekend, filtering monsoonal moisture northward towards the
High Plains. Occasional disturbances pass through the flow near the
area, generating thunderstorm chances. Guidance indicates a
shortwave advancing over the High Plains Sunday night, which may
bring another decent shot at precipitation. Drier conditions are
anticipated on Monday as upper level ridging builds further north.

Temperatures gradually increase throughout the extended as a ridge
amplifies over the CONUS. Highs start out in the upper 70s to low
80s on Friday and rise into the upper 80s for Monday. Lows remain
generally in the mid 50s to mid 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1123 PM MDT Mon Aug 22 2016

VFR conditions should prevail through the TAF period, with a
temporary drop to MVFR likely at KMCK early in the TAF period due
to passing thunderstorm activity. I couldn`t rule out vis dropping
to around 2 sm at KMCK if heavy rain were to impact the terminal,
however confidence was too low to include IFR during this update.
Winds should slowly diminish early in the TAF period as a surface
trough slides southeast over both terminals with winds generally
below 12 kt after 10-12Z. Wind direction should shift from the
south to the southwest tonight, then to the northwest and north
Tuesday afternoon.


&&

.GLD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...JBH
AVIATION...DR



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.