Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 310819
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
219 AM MDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 152 PM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

FORECAST PROBLEMS WILL BE FOG/STRATUS LATER TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES/LOCATION ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. SATELLITE
SHOWING THE FLOW HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN THE LAST 24 HOURS WITH A
BLOCKY AND AMPLIFIED PATTERN FROM THE PACIFIC INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC.

AT JET LEVEL...MODELS WERE CLOSE BUT THE NAM/SREF/CANADIAN WERE
DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE ECMWF/GFS. AT MID LEVELS...THE GFS
AND CANADIAN WERE DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE UKMET AND ECMWF.
RAP...ECMWF AND SREF WERE DOING BEST ON THE SURFACE WIND AND
PRESSURE FIELD. ALTHOUGH THEY WERE DOING WELL WITH THE DEWPOINTS.
THE NAM...GFS...CANADIAN...AND SREF WERE DOING WELL ON THE LOW LEVEL
THERMAL FIELD.

FOR TONIGHT...WITH NO LIFT...MOISTURE OR INSTABILITY...FORECAST WILL
REMAIN DRY. VISIBILITIES THIS AFTERNOON HAVE BEEN REDUCED DUE TO
SMOKE AS A RESULT OF IT BEING MIXED DOWN. SO HAVE SMOKE IN THR0UGH
MID EVENING.

FOG AND STRATUS WAS FURTHER WEST THIS MORNING THAN WHAT WAS
INDICATED YESTERDAY. EVEN THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS THIS MORNING
WERE NOT CATCHING. BELIEVE THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG AND STRATUS IS NOT
ONLY GOOD TONIGHT BUT BELIEVE IT WILL BE EVEN FURTHER WEST. THIS DUE
TO THAT MOISTURE NOT GOING ANYWHERE WITH SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH
SOUTHEAST WINDS DEVELOPING OVER MOST OF THE AREA. HOWEVER MODELS ARE
NOT VERY EXCITED ABOUT THIS RIGHT NOW BUT IT IS LOOKING LIKE THEY
MAY NOT HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS. SO INSERTED FOG INTO THE EASTERN
HALF DURING THE LAST HALF OF THE NIGHT. MINS WILL BE WARMER DUE TO
MORE WIND.

FOR MONDAY...INITIAL CONCERN WILL BE HOW MUCH OF THE STRATUS AND FOG
WILL BE AROUND. LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD BURN OFF RATHER QUICKLY...BY
MID MORNING. JET STAYS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE AREA ALTHOUGH IT IS
MUCH CLOSER THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY.

QUESTION THEN BECOMES WHERE DOES INCOMING BOUNDARY SETUP WITH THIS
BEING THE KEY FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. MODELS ARE NOT ONLY
INCONSISTENT ON THIS BUT DIFFER A GREAT DEAL ON HOW MUCH IF ANY
DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR IN THE AREA. AT THIS TIME BOUNDARY IS OVER
THE WESTERN QUARTER OF THE AREA AS A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE COMES OVER
THE TOP OF IT. THERE IS MODEL DISAGREEMENT ON THE AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE...ESPECIALLY AT LOW LEVELS. LIFT LOOKS FINE BUT JUST ENOUGH
UNCERTAINTY THAT AT THIS TIME WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS
IN THE AFTERNOON. OF NOTE STORM MOTIONS WILL BE SLOW AND ALONG THE
FRONT. SO SOME TRAINING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE HOTTEST TO THE EAST OF THE BOUNDARY. LATEST
GUIDANCE HAS RAISED MAXES...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS
OF THE AREA. SO RAISED MAXES ACCORDINGLY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 217 AM MDT MON AUG 31 2015

THE LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS WITH THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE CONUS AND AN
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.  THE
INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE WILL PROVIDE MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
TRI STATE AREA WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. AS HEIGHT FALLS
ALOFT BECOME STRONGER WITH THE APPROACHING TROUGH...CHANCES WILL
INCREASE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FOR THE
WEEKEND. THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE HIGH PLAINS
REGION AND PROVIDES SURFACE LIFT IN COMBINATION WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL FLOW PATTERN. LAPSE RATES DURING THE PERIOD ARE NOT
IMPRESSIVE VIA MODEL SOUNDINGS...SO NOT EXPECTING STRONG STORMS TO
DEVELOP.

TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT IN THE MID 90S THURSDAY BEFORE DECLINING
SLIGHTLY FRIDAY INTO THE LOWER 90S.  AS COLDER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO THE HIGH PLAINS...HIGH
TEMPERATURES INTO THE WEEKEND WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 70S TO MID
80S BY SUNDAY AND INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S FOR NEXT MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1147 PM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT BOTH SITES.
THIS MORNING...AN AREA OF FOG SHOULD DEVELOP PRIMARILY ACROSS
CENTRAL KANSAS AND NEBRASKA. MOISTURE ADVECTION MAY ALLOW LIGHT
FOG TO OCCUR AT KMCK BUT THIS LIKELY WILL NOT REDUCE VISIBILITIES
TO MVFR. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE A SHARP BOUNDARY ONCE AGAIN
BETWEEN DENSE FOG AND NO FOG SO THIS BEARS WATCHING. LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR SEEMS LESS LIKELY AS THE LATEST VAD WIND PROFILE
INDICATES A 40 KT JET WITH 10 KT SURFACE WINDS. THEREFORE...WILL
NOT MEET LLWS CRITERIA. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SOMEWHAT IN DOUBT
TOMORROW AS CONVECTION SHOULD BE WEAKENING AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE
COLORADO BORDER. FOR NOW...REFRAINED FROM PLACING THUNDER IN TAFS.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...RRH


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