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000
FXUS63 KGLD 070905
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
205 AM MST SAT DEC 7 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 124 PM MST FRI DEC 6 2013

LATEST SATELLITE AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS DEPICT A LONG WAVE TROUGH
OVER THE PLAINS WITH MID AND HIGH CLOUDS UNDER THE TROUGH.  THE
WARMING GROUND TEMPERATURES UNDER THE ARCTIC AIR MASS HAVE ALLOWED
SOME CUMULUS CLOUDS TO FORM AHEAD OF A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH
OVER EASTERN COLORADO.  AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED
OVER SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA.

TONIGHT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST WITH THE WINDS
REMAINING LIGHT.  WITH NO CHANGE IN AIR MASS THE TEMPERATURES WILL
FALL TO NEAR/BELOW ZERO.  OVERNIGHT THE WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN BEHIND
THE DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH WHICH WILL CAUSE WIND CHILLS TO FALL TO
15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE AREA.  THE CURRENT WIND CHILL
ADVISORY LOOKS GOOD SINCE THE ENTIRE AREA WILL FALL TO AT LEAST 15
BELOW ZERO BY SUNRISE.

SATURDAY THE STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET BEHIND THE SURFACE RIDGE
WILL MIX TO THE GROUND BY LATE MORNING.  AS THE WINDS STRENGTHEN
WIND CHILL VALUES WILL CONTINUE TO FALL TO NEAR 25 DEGREES BELOW
ZERO DURING THE MORNING.  BY EARLY AFTERNOON THE TEMPERATURES WILL BE
WARM ENOUGH FOR WIND CHILLS TO WARM TO AROUND 10 BELOW ZERO.  DUE TO
WIND CHILLS LESS THAN 15 BELOW ZERO LINGERING AN HOUR OR SO AFTER
THE CURRENT ADVISORY EXPIRES...WILL BE EXTENDING THE TIME OF THE
ADVISORY AS A RESULT.

MEANWHILE A 700MB SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES OVER THE AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON AS THE RIGHT ENTRANCE OF THE 300MB JET AND LEFT EXIT OF
THE 500MB JET MOVE OVERHEAD.  MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW THE ENVIRONMENT
SATURATED MAINLY ALONG THE INVERSION FROM 850 TO 700MB.  THETA-E
LAPSE RATES OF 10C/KM SUGGEST A VERY STABLE ENVIRONMENT BUT WITH
SOME OF THE SATURATED AIR IN THE DENDRITIC ZONE WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT
AND MOISTURE ADVECTION...DECIDED TO KEEP THE MENTION OF SNOWFALL.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR SNOWFALL WILL BE OVER SOUTHWEST PART OF THE
AREA.  AM EXPECTING SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TO REMAIN BELOW AN INCH DURING
THE AFTERNOON DUE TO THE LIMITED AMOUNT OF LIFT AND UNFAVORABLE
LAPSE RATES.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 205 AM MST SAT DEC 7 2013

PRECIPITATION FREE AND SLIGHTLY WARMER WEATHER WILL BE THE MAIN
STORY FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST. THERE MIGHT BE A SMALL CHANCE FOR
SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
ON TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS CHANCE COMES AS A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH DROPS DOWN FROM CANADA AND THE DENDRITIC GROWTH LAYER NEARS
SATURATION. MODELS INDICATE THAT MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD
REMAIN TO THE NORTH...OVER WYOMING AND THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE. FOR
NOW...HAVE LEFT POPS DRY BUT THIS WAS THE ONLY PERIOD THAT WAS
CONSIDERED FOR AN INCREASE IN POPS OR MENTION OF FLURRIES.

BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH...ANOTHER COLD SURFACE HIGH SAGS
SOUTH AND COOLS TEMPERATURES OFF A FEW DEGREES FOR WEDNESDAY. THE
WHOLE AREA SHOULD SEE HIGHS BELOW FREEZING AGAIN WEDNESDAY WITH THE
ONLY POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OVER EAST COLORADO. THE CANADIAN AND
EUROPEAN MODELS BOTH AGREE ON THE COLDER TEMPERATURES WITH THE GFS
2-4 DEGREES WARMER AT 850 MB. DUE TO THE PERFORMANCE/VERIFICATION OF
THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN OVER THE PAST WEEK...HAVE NUDGED HIGH
TEMPERATURES TOWARDS ECMWF MOS GUIDANCE. SIMILARLY...DUE TO THE
PERFORMANCE OF CONSMOS OVER THE PAST MONTH...HAVE NUDGED LOW
TEMPERATURES TOWARDS CONSMOS WHICH LOWERS THEM A DEGREE OR TWO EACH
NIGHT.

THE COLD SURFACE HIGH SHOULD BE QUITE PROGRESSIVE AS MODELS AGREE ON
A QUICK EXIT TO THE EAST BY THURSDAY. IN ADDITION...AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED
STATES WITH A TRANSITION TO MORE ZONAL FLOW BY THE WEEKEND. THIS
WOULD INDICATE A GENERAL WARMING PATTERN WITH THE ARCTIC AIR FINALLY
FORCED EAST. THIS IDEA IS REFLECTED WELL IN THE LATEST EUROPEAN RUN
BUT WAS NOT AS AGGRESSIVE TO WARM TEMPERATURES AS THE EUROPEAN SINCE
THE GFS SUGGESTS A MUCH SLOWER WARMING TREND. WITH A FAVORABLE
PATTERN FOR WARMING AND AN INCREASE IN 850 MB TEMPS...THOUGHT A HIGH
TEMP FORECAST OF LOW 40S AND A SLIGHT NUDGE TO THE WARMER EUROPEAN
MODEL WAS A DECENT FIRST GUESS. THIS WOULD FINALLY BRING
TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...A MUCH WELCOME
CHANGE FROM THE VERY COLD WEATHER THAT HAS BEEN EXPERIENCED THESE
PAST FEW DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 926 PM MST FRI DEC 6 2013

GLD WILL START OUT VFR WITH SOUTH WINDS INCREASING THROUGH THE
MORNING AND BECOMING GUSTY. BETWEEN 18Z-21Z...CEILINGS WILL BECOME
MVFR WITH VISIBILITIES ALSO LOWERING AFTER 21Z AS AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW
DEVELOP. AFTER 03Z...CONDITIONS MAY BOUNCE BETWEEN IFR AND MVFR.

MCK WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS
BECOMING GUSTY DURING THE AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS WILL TRANSITION TO
MVFR AS LOWER CEILINGS MOVE IN ALONG WITH AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW
AFTER 02Z.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST /NOON CST/ THIS MORNING FOR
     KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.

CO...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST THIS MORNING FOR COZ090>092.

NE...WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM MST /NOON CST/ THIS MORNING FOR
     NEZ079>081.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JTL
LONG TERM...RRH
AVIATION...LOCKHART