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000
FXUS63 KGLD 201911
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
111 PM MDT MON MAY 20 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 227 AM MDT MON MAY 20 2013

VERTICALLY STACKED LOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE DAKOTAS TODAY AND
TONIGHT BEFORE FINALLY MOVING EAST TUESDAY NIGHT. A WEAK VORTICITY
LOBE WILL MOVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING BRINGING
SCATTERED SHOWERS ESPECIALLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70. EXPECT THE
AIR MASS TO BE ONLY SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH CAPES
AROUND 300 J/KG...BUT UNSTABLE ENOUGH TO KEEP MENTION OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. LOW LEVEL TRAJECTORIES CONTINUE TO
BRING COLD AIR ADVECTION ACROSS THE REGION...AND EXPECT AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES TO REACH ONLY THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S. DECENT
850-700 MB FLOW WILL MIX TO THE SURFACE WHICH WILL PRODUCE NORTHWEST
WINDS 15-30 KNOTS ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA.

FOR TONIGHT...ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL ADVECT OVER THE AREA...SO
WILL CONTINUE WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN LOWS THIS MORNING...MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO
MID 40S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 106 PM MDT MON MAY 20 2013

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...UPPER RIDGE AXIS MAKES ITS WAY
ACROSS THE AREA WITH LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS TO THE EAST AND NORTHWEST.
DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY THEN PERHAPS A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A WEATHER DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS
FROM WEST TO EAST. ON THURSDAY LOOKS LIKE A MONSOONAL TYPE FLOW
DEVELOPS WITH MOISTURE MOVING NORTH. PRECIPITATION AGAIN POSSIBLE.
HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE 70S...COOLING THURSDAY INTO THE MID 60S TO
LOW 70S AS COOLER AIR MOVES IN AND CLOUDS INCREASE.

FRIDAY-MONDAY...LITTLE CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS DAYS DISCUSSIONS.
FORECAST AREA CAUGHT IN BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WITH
MONSOONAL TYPE MOISTURE RETURN INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD
LEADING TO SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH TEMPERATURES RETURN TO
ABOVE NORMAL READINGS IN THE 80S TO AROUND 90 WITH LOWS IN THE 50S
AND 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1109 AM MDT MON MAY 20 2013

SATELLITE AND RADAR DATA SHOW INCREASING TREND FOR SHOWERS THAT
WILL LIKELY IMPACT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK FROM THIS AFTERNOON UNTIL
EARLY THIS EVENING. EVEN WITH SHOWERS EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO
LAST AND CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS LOWER CLOUDS CLEAR OUT. WIND WILL
DECREASE SOME OVERNIGHT AND THEN PICK UP AGAIN TUESDAY MORNING.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MENTZER
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...FS