Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 240005
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
505 PM MST FRI JAN 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 PM MST FRI JAN 23 2015

SATELLITE AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATE NORTHERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW
OVER THE PLAINS DUE TO A RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST AND A TROUGH OVER
SOUTHEAST CANADA.  A BAND OF MIDLEVEL CLOUDS WAS PRESENT IN THE FLOW
AHEAD OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH.  AT THE SURFACE NORTHWEST WINDS WERE
GUSTING UP TO 30 MPH BEHIND A SURFACE TROUGH THAT HAS MOVED EAST OF
THE TRI-STATE AREA.

TONIGHT AND SATURDAY DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED DUE
TO THE DRY NORTHERLY FLOW AND WAA.  THE BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
BECOME LIGHT BY EARLY EVENING.  SATURDAY THE WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN
DURING THE LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON DUE TO 850MB WINDS OF
20-30KTS.  THE STRONGEST WINDS LOOK TO BE OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 PM MST FRI JAN 23 2015

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY.  SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BEHIND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT.

DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY ACROSS THE FA.  DYNAMICS
AND MOISTURE WILL BE JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE FA AS THE SHORTWAVE
MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.  SUBSIDENCE WILL FOLLOW THE EXITING
SHORTWAVE ON SUNDAY. A WEAK WAVE IS ADVERTISED TO COME THROUGH
THE FLOW SUNDAY NIGHT BUT ONCE AGAIN MOISTURE IS LACKING.
SUBSIDENCE FOLLOWS THE WAVE ON MONDAY. AS A RESULT, OTHER THAN
SOME SILENT POPS IN THE NORTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT POPS WILL BE NIL.

WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY TO WINDY BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE SUNDAY. THE
GFS BUFKIT HAS THE POTENTIAL OF 35KT GUSTS SUNDAY. WINDS SHOULD NOT
BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR A REQUIRE A WIND HIGHLIGHT.

MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD COOL TO THE LOWER
AND MID 30S.  MAX TEMPERATURES WILL WARM FROM THE MID 50S SUNDAY TO
THE MID 60S MONDAY.

IN THE EXTENDED...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...A RIDGE WILL BE
OVER THE PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AND THEN FLATTENS AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES UP THE WEST SIDE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL THEN TURN WESTERLY.  SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE PLAINS THROUGH TUESDAY.  A
SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY AND THEN SHIFT
EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. THE FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO BE DRY WITH LACK OF ANY
SIGNIFICANT FORCING.  SYSTEMS ARE EITHER TOO FAR NORTH OR SOUTH OF
THE FA.

MAX AND MIN TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOUT 20 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH READINGS IN THE LOWER 60S AND MID
30S RESPECTIVELY.  MAX TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL BE
COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 40S AND MINS IN
THE MID 20S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 502 PM MST FRI JAN 23 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE GLD AND MCK TAF SITES THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION OVERNIGHT AND WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OUT OF THE REGION AFTER
06Z. LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME GUSTY OUT
OF THE NORTHWEST AGAIN ON SATURDAY AFTER ABOUT 16Z AS STRONGER
FLOW ALOFT MIXES TO THE SURFACE.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JTL
LONG TERM...FS
AVIATION...LOCKHART


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