Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 280544
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1144 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1022 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

DECIDED TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF THE REGION
THIS EVENING. BASICALLY CHOSE TO OUTLINE THE LOCATIONS MOST
SUSCEPTIBLE TO FLASH FLOODING TOMORROW WHICH IS BASICALLY THE SAME
LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVED HEAVY RAIN TODAY AND IN THE VICINITY OF
THE DRYLINE. REASONING IS MANY LOCATIONS RECEIVED HEAVY RAIN WITH
REPORTS OF FLASH FLOODING...PARTICULARLY IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TOMORROW WITH
ANEMIC FORWARD SPEEDS AND PRECIPITABLE WATER READINGS WELL ABOVE
NORMAL.

AMENDED FORECAST FOR LATEST TRENDS IN POPS...FOG/STRATUS EXPECTED
TONIGHT AND STORM CHANCES TOMORROW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

NOT A LOT OF TIME TO WRITE DUE TO ONGOING SEVERE WEATHER. MODELS
HAVING A HARD TIME WITH THE CONVECTION. RUC WOULD LOOK TO HAVE THE
RIGHT IDEA WITH THE MAIN CLUSTER OF CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHEAST
PORTION OF THE AREA. TWO DIFFERENT AREAS OF SURFACE
CONVERGENCE...ONE RUNNING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS THE CENTER OF
THE AREA AND ANOTHER AREA APPROACHING THE NORTHWEST CORNER. WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD TRANSITIONING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE
EVENING. SO STORMS LOOK TO GRADUALLY END FROM WEST TO EAST DURING
THE NIGHT.

INDICATIONS ARE THAT WILL DEFINITELY HAVE STRATUS MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA BEHIND THE RAIN WITH SOME PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE. HAVE THIS LAST
THROUGH MID MORNING. BY THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY...SURFACE BOUNDARY
SETS UP JUST EAST OF THE KANSAS AND COLORADO BORDER. MID AND UPPER
LEVEL LIFT LOOKS TO BE STRONGER THAN TODAY SO AGAIN LOOK TO HAVE
ANOTHER GOOD CHANCE OF STORMS...SOME SEVERE...IN THE AFTERNOON.

DUE TO LACK OF TIME DID NOT CHANGE THE TEMPERATURES THROUGH
TOMORROW TOO MUCH. IT DOES LOOK WARMER TOMORROW.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 301 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

AGAIN NOT A LOT OF TIME DUE TO ONGOING SEVERE WEATHER. HIGH CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS TO OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT DUE TO RATHER STRONG
UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH. SAME TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TO THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. RIDGING AND
DRY CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE IN STORE FROM SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY NIGHT.

FROM TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...FLOW BECOME MORE SOUTHWEST WITH A
BETTER CHANCE OF STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGHS TO MOVE THROUGH. SO
THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE A LITTLE BETTER DURING THIS
PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WERE NOT CHANGED FROM WHAT THE CRH_INIT
PRODUCED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1144 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

SEVERAL AVIATION CONCERNS ANTICIPATED THIS FORECAST. FIRST...LOW
LEVEL JET HAS STRENGTHENED OVER KGLD. HOWEVER...STRONGER WINDS AT
THE SURFACE THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT MAY PREVENT LLWS DEVELOPMENT.
SECOND...FOG/STRATUS IS LIKELY BY MORNING AT BOTH SITES. FEEL
CONDITIONS MAY BE WORSE AT KGLD WHERE THERE IS MORE OF AN
OPPORTUNITY FOR CLEARING OF THUNDERSTORM ANVIL MATTER. THIRD...A
STRONG DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM INITIATION ALONG THE DRYLINE. BOTH SITES
HAVE A HIGH CHANCE FOR STORMS SO WENT AHEAD WITH A TEMPO GROUP AS
TIMING REMAINS A LITTLE SUSPECT DUE TO POTENTIAL EARLIER
DEVELOPMENT AND ANEMIC STORM MOVEMENT.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR KSZ001-002-013>015-028-029-042.

CO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR COZ090.

NE...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR NEZ079-080.

&&

$$

UPDATE...RRH
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...BULLER
AVIATION...RRH


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