Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 280845
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
245 AM MDT Sun May 28 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 703 PM MDT Sat May 27 2017

Made adjustment to timing of PoPs, decrease in coverage of
thunder mention, and removed severe mention from HWO. Showers are
trending slightly faster, and instability is significantly lowered
as front remains well south of our CWA. There are some isolated
showers behind the main precip area, but with decreasing mid level
lapse rates this activity should diminish after sunset. Timing of
main area of precip associated with shortwave should be out of
our CWA by midnight.

UPDATE Issued at 254 PM MDT Sat May 27 2017

Am becoming increasingly doubtful of severe weather developing
over the southwest portion of the Tri-State Area this afternoon.
Wave clouds on visible satellite continue to be prevalent, while
the cumulus field continues to remain further south by the front.
Can`t completely rule out the possibility of severe weather along
the far southern edge over the forecast area, but am not very
confident it will occur given the front should remain to the
south.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 115 PM MDT Sat May 27 2017

Latest upper air analysis shows a trough axis over the Northern
Plains extending southwest to the Central Rockies.  Satellite
imagery shows a defined line of clouds accompanying the trough axis
east with colder cloud tops at the base of the trough.  Ahead of the
trough axis wave clouds indicated a stable environment.  Latest
radar imagery showed a line of showers accompanying the trough axis
east. On the south end of the line a cluster of storms had developed
at the base of the trough axis.  At the surface the cold front was
near the KS/OK border arcing northwest to near Denver.

Am expecting this cluster to be the focus for attention this
afternoon for the potential of strong to severe storms as the
cluster moves southeast.  The better chance for severe weather will
be south of Cheyenne and Greeley/Wichita counties near the front
where the higher instability will be.  Main hazard with this cluster
will be large hail up to ping-pong ball size if severe storms
develop. Have limited optimism due to CAPE of 1000j/kg or less.
However effective deep layer shear is 55kts by early evening, so if
an updraft can avoid being sheared apart large hail will be very
likely.  DCAPE values and HRRR ensemble model runs both show a low
probability of severe wind gusts.

Tonight the threat for severe weather will be southeast of the
forecast area, if any is still ongoing.  There may be some lingering
storm activity ahead of the approaching trough axis. Cloud cover
will exit ahead of the trough axis.  Behind the trough axis a
surface high will move through.

Sunday will be warmer as northwest winds bring in WAA.  Winds will
be light as a 850mb ridge moves through.  A clear sky is expected
due to dry northwest flow overhead.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 242 AM MDT Sun May 28 2017

Shortwave ridging will move slowly east as several weak shortwaves
begin to traverse the central Rockies, moving into the central High
Plains on Wednesday. The H7 pattern is in decent agreement as the
global models all are relatively close; however, at the H5 level
and up, there are profound differences. The GFS is a bit more
consistent run to run thus I am leaning more toward a GFS
solution. Chance PoPs will prevail through the afternoon on
Wednesday with strong to severe thunderstorms being possible.
Thunderstorm activity will be less likely on Thursday as upper
support is lost; however, there is no consistent and reliable
model solution for Thursday as GFS, ECMWF, and Canadian all
indicate sharply different solutions.

Friday brings another chance of thunderstorms to the CWA as a very
weak shortwave is expected to push through the area. Instability
will be relatively high with CAPE ranging from 2500 to 3500 J/Kg;
however shear is lacking with the GFS only indicating around 20
knots of 0-6 km shear. Severe thunderstorms are possible but will
likely be limited to pulse type multi-cell storms as supercell
development will be difficult given the lack of shear.

A very weak cold front will push across the region on Saturday with
showers and thunderstorms possible through the afternoon to early
evening.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1124 PM MDT Sat May 27 2017

VFR conditions will continue through the TAF period at both KGLD
and KMCK terminals. Winds shift to the northwest and increase to
around 12-13kt during the day Sunday, otherwise winds should
remain below 12kt through the TAF period mainly out of the west-
southwest with surface low pressure lingering near the region.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DR
SHORT TERM...JTL
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...DR


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