Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 130804
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
204 AM MDT SUN APR 13 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1057 PM MDT SAT APR 12 2014

LIFT AND NEGATIVE THETA-E LAPSE RATES MAKING GOOD USE OF WHAT
LITTLE MOISTURE THERE IS CURRENTLY IN THE COLUMN. SOME VERY LIGHT
RAINFALL WITH SPORADIC LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE DEVELOPED NEAR THE
WESTERN END OF THE FORECAST AREA. SO UPDATED TO INCREASE POPS
SLIGHTLY AND ADDED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM MDT SAT APR 12 2014

EXPECT A FEW SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
AND MOVE INTO THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
EVENING. WITH WEAK INSTABILITY AND A WEAKENING CAP AROUND 00Z WITH
INSTABILITY DECREASING AND THE CAP STRENGTHENING AGAIN BY
03Z...EXPECT ANY POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORM TO BE SHORT LIVED
THIS EVENING.

SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD MORE STRATIFORM THROUGH THE
NIGHT AND DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH
THROUGH THE REGION AND THE UPPER TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHERLY
BRANCH LIFTS EAST OF THE ROCKIES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS.  THE SURFACE LOW CENTER LIFTS OUT FROM THE PANHANDLE REGION
EARLY SUNDAY INTO WESTERN MISSOURI BY LATE SUNDAY.  THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE EXITING LOW WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH
TO PRODUCE NORTH WINDS THAT WILL APPROACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA
DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY.  SINCE WIND SPEEDS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO
ME MARGINAL...HAVE DECIDED TO NOT ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY AT THIS
TIME. WITH COLDER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
DROP TONIGHT AND REMAIN NEARLY STAGNANT THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY
BEFORE TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO DROP FURTHER LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...POSSIBLY PRODUCING A RAIN/SNOW MIX LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 152 AM MDT SUN APR 13 2014

SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPPING OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL BEGIN
TO APPROACH ON WEDNESDAY. ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BE
MOVING INTO THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...SO WILL HAVE COOLER
TEMPERATURES NORTHWEST. COLD FRONT WILL CLEAR THE AREA BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND AS LIFT INCREASES WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
HAVE A CHANCE FOR SNOW NORTHWEST AND RAIN AND SNOW ELSEWHERE
THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS EVENT LOOKS VERY SIMILAR TO THE ONE
OCCURRING TODAY ACROSS THE AREA AND COULD BRING ANOTHER FEW INCHES
OF SNOW...ALTHOUGH GFS FORECAST OF UP TO A FOOT LOOKS
OVERDONE. DROPPED TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY AS MUCH AS ISC
ALLOWED...BUT WITH CLOUDS/UPSLOPE/PRECIPITATION NOT EXPECTING MUCH
WARMING. SHORTWAVE RIDGING REBUILDS ON FRIDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS
AND TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. SOUTHERN
STREAM SYSTEM ON SATURDAY LOOKS RATHER WEAK AT THIS TIME AND MAY
BE TOO FAR SOUTH...SO WILL KEEP IT DRY WITH TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1057 PM MDT SAT APR 12 2014

VFR CONDITIONS FOR ABOUT THE FIRST 6 HOURS OF THE PERIOD AND THEN
CONDITIONS WORSEN RAPIDLY NEAR OR SHORTLY AFTER 12Z. THESE CONDITIONS
ARE DEVELOPING A LITTLE SLOWER THAN WHAT EARLIER EXPECTATIONS SO
SLOWED THAT AND THE ONSET OF THE PHASE CHANGE AS WELL. BY
18Z...IFR TO NEAR LIFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. VERY STRONG AND GUSTY NORTH WINDS
WILL DEVELOP BY 12Z AND THEN WILL BE SUSTAINED IN THE 25 KNOT TO
30 KNOT RANGE WITH GUSTS NEAR 40 KNOTS BY 18Z. THIS WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BULLER
SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...BULLER




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