Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 251134
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
534 AM MDT THU AUG 25 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 242 AM MDT Thu Aug 25 2016

As of 3 am CDT, 2 am MDT, skies across the Tri-State Region are
overcast once again. Temperatures are in the mid 50s to low 60s.
Winds are light and variable. At the surface, a weak low pressure is
centered over western Oklahoma while a high pressure was spreading
east across the High Plains. Aloft, a shortwave trough was visible
on latest water vapor imagery, currently located over southeastern
Colorado and rapidly advancing northeast. Latest WSR-88D radar
imagery indicates a band of showers/embedded thunderstorms moving
across northwest Kansas, spreading east into north central Kansas.
In addition, it is evident precipitation is waning to the south
behind the incoming shortwave trough.

For the rest of this morning, anticipate a rapid downward trend in
precipitation coverage across northwest Kansas. Subsidence behind
the exiting shortwave is putting a quick end to the precipitation.
Once precipitation dissipates/exits, expecting a rather quiet
morning/afternoon in terms of precipitation. Cloud cover should
persist for most of the forecast area. Decided to lower high
temperatures from forecast guidance where highest confidence exists
for persistent dense cloud cover. This primarily affects northwest
Kansas.

Overnight tonight, yet another disturbance is expected to begin
moving east towards the high plains. This shortwave trough is
currently centered over southwestern Idaho. Some members of forecast
guidance also indicate a lead shortwave trough traversing the region
late tomorrow night. This lead shortwave trough should have a direct
influence on convective development late tomorrow night, similar to
what occurred tonight. Anticipate convection to develop over
southeast Colorado and southwest Kansas, spreading northeast during
the early morning hours. In addition to the trough, moisture
advection is forecast to begin from the southeast. As boundary layer
moisture increases and temperatures cool, one would expect fog
development, especially with east to southeast winds. This is a
climatologically favorable pattern for fog/stratus. Kept the fog
mention in the forecast. Was unsure where to pinpoint a higher
threat of fog so maintained "patchy fog" wording.

The primary shortwave trough is expected to arrive Friday afternoon
and evening. This disturbance will bring the highest precipitation
chances. In fact, latest guidance indicates a widespread band of
showers/storms moving through the High Plains. Precipitation chances
gradually diminish after midnight as the storms move east.
Atmospheric instability and lapse rates do improve, likely a result
of the moisture surge and slightly warmer conditions over Colorado.
However, severe parameters are still not overly impressive. A few
stronger storms are possible and would not be surprised to see a
severe storm or two.

Saturday is expected to be relatively quiet with regards to
precipitation. Some clearing of the cloud cover is likely so a
warmer day appears in store for the region. Afternoon temperatures
are expected to climb into the low to mid 80s.

Yet another weak disturbance should move through Saturday night.
Expecting showers/storms to develop over east Colorado and southwest
Kansas, then spreading northeast through the evening hours. Severe
weather parameters do indicate favorable instability and wind shear.
Will need to monitor Saturday`s severe weather potential as storm
organization, persistence and strength should all be to a higher
degree. The primary threats with any strong/severe storms would be
large hail and damaging winds. Storms should continue into Saturday
evening and gradually diminish/spread east after midnight.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 204 AM MDT Thu Aug 25 2016

A ridge builds into the region during the extended
period, causing thunderstorm chances to trend downward and
temperatures to rise.

On Sunday, an upper trough continues to pass east of the High
Plains, with upper level ridging starting to build in behind.
Monsoonal moisture will continue to travel north under the ridge as
it develops and pushes over the area. The highest chance for showers
and thunderstorms during this period appears to be Sunday night when
a disturbance passes through the flow and a boundary moves back into
Kansas. Precipitation chances quickly dwindle early next week as the
ridge amplifies, with only slight chances for storms Monday through
Tuesday in the southeastern CWA and nil PoPs Tuesday night and
Wednesday.

Temperatures jump into the mid to upper 80s at the start of the
extended period and remain there through Tuesday before a slight
increase into the upper 80s/low 90s for Wednesday. Low temperatures
look to be generally in the mid 50s to mid 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
Issued at 534 AM MDT Thu Aug 25 2016

VFR Conditions expected to persist until after midnight at both
KGLD and KMCK. Stratus developed this morning across portions of
northwest Kansas but will remain south of TAF sites. Mid- and
High-level clouds should continue streaming in from the southwest
today. Anticipate breaks in the clouds by afternoon. Stratus is
likely to redevelop after midnight tonight as a moisture surge
spreads in from the southeast. Also anticipate fog to accompany
the stratus but confidence is low in exact locations to be
affected. In addition, east to southeast surface winds are
forecast, a climatologically favorable set-up for poor aviation
conditions. Currently forecast MVFR cigs/vis but conditions could
reach IFR. A few showers are possible around KGLD after midnight
as well as the next upper level disturbance encroaches.

&&

.GLD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RRH
LONG TERM...JBH
AVIATION...RRH



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