Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 042038
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
138 PM MST Sun Dec 4 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 137 PM MST Sun Dec 4 2016

Currently across the Tri-State region there is a surface ridge. This
is allowing temperatures to reach the upper 40s to low 50s. The main
portion of surface ridge is in the eastern portion of the area,
therefore this is bringing southwest flow across the CWA. Winds are
primarily light at 5 to 10 mph but some gusty winds have developed
over the eastern Colorado counties and Nebraska counties early this
afternoon.

The remainder of the day into the evening are expected to be dry
with winds from the west, southwest at 5 to 15 mph. There will be
some high clouds that move into the northwest half of the region
this evening as a surface trough begins to push east into the
region. Temperatures will drop into the 20s tonight.

As for Monday, temperatures will be in the 50s due to warm air
moving across the region before a cold frontal passage. Current
guidance has this cold front moving over the region during the mid
to late afternoon hours. This will cause the winds to shift to the
northwest and increase to around 10 to 20 mph.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 252 AM MST Sun Dec 4 2016

Main focus will be drastically cooler temperatures for latter half
of the work week and snowfall chances for Tuesday night and
Wednesday.

Overview of impacts for this period...
Rapid wind increase behind cold front Monday evening, with an
hour or so of gusts of 35-40 MPH.

Wind chills in the single digits early Tuesday morning across the
area.  Wind chills in the single digits above and below zero
expected late Tuesday night through early Wednesday morning.  Wind
chills of 10 to 15 below zero Wednesday night and early Thursday
morning.

Two to three inches of snowfall forecast for Tuesday night with an
additional inch or so expected for Wednesday for NW KS. Not
expecting much wind so no drifting expected. Minor impacts to
travel expected.

Monday high temperatures will be even warmer as warm air advection
increases ahead of an arctic cold front which will move through
during the early evening.  During the afternoon a pre-frontal trough
will move through from the northwest.  Behind the trough winds will
turn to the northwest and gradually increase.

Monday night the arctic front will move through during the early
evening.  Along the front northwest winds will rapidly increase as a
shallow mixed layer allows the stronger low level jet to mix to the
ground briefly.  Wind gusts of 35 to 40 MPH are likely along the
front.  The wind will decline behind the front.

Latest data indicates a dry frontal passage despite a shallow
saturated layer developing between 700 and 600mb.  The saturated
layer develops behind the 700mb short wave trough.  There is some
weak lift over East Central Colorado due to another short wave
trough further west, so some flurries are possible.

After midnight wind chills will fall to the single digits, a stark
contrast from the low to mid 50s Monday afternoon.

Tuesday morning wind chills in the single digits will continue until
mid morning before warming.  Highs will be around 25 degrees cooler
than Monday.  Fortunately winds will be light as a surface high
moves through.

Tuesday late afternoon through the night a stronger upper level
short wave trough will move through the Tri-State Area.  During the
evening a band of frontogenesis in the 700-600mb layer will develop
over the northern part of the Tri-State Area.  While weak isentropic
lift will be occurring over the entire Tri-State Area, the
frontogenesis should lead to the formation of a band of slightly
heavier snowfall.  There will be light to moderate lift occurring in
the dendritic growth zone over the entire forecast area as well. The
frontogenesis band remains fairly stationary during the evening then
moves south overnight.  The environment looks fairly stable for most
of the night which may limit how much snowfall the frontogenesis and
lift in the dendritic growth zone will generate.

Frontogenesis increases as the band moves south.  The frontogenesis
may end up producing the same amount of snow as it moves southward
over the south half as over north half despite not moving much over
the north.

As the first band of frontogenesis moves south overnight a second
band develops over the north part of the area.  This band does not
appear to be as strong due to the frontogenesis being lower.  The
stability is also higher over the north half of the area which will
hinder how much snow is generated with the frontogenesis.

Current forecast has two to three inches of snow possible for the
forecast area Tuesday night. Noticed winds will be from the east
during the night. In past snowfall events with an east wind the
snow was heavier and wetter than we typically have. Not too sure
this event will be a wet snow due to the passage of the arctic
front Monday evening.

Wednesday...clouds and precipitation steadily decrease from west to
east during the day as upper ridging moves ashore on the west coast
pushing the upper trough that impacted the area Tuesday east.
Additional accumulation an inch or two, mainly east of the CO/KS
border. A clear to mostly clear sky expected during the night.
Forecast concern will be on temperatures and impact(s) of potential
snow cover on them. A 1035-1040mb sfc high noses into the area
during the day with a 1043mb high over the area during the night.
After high temperatures only in the mid teens to low 20s ideal
conditions possible for very cold low temperatures. We`ll have some
snow cover, clear sky, and northwest winds around 10 mph. Should see
lows in the zero to -5F range in far eastern Colorado with 0 to +5F
elsewhere, certainly subject to change. Wind chills -10F to near -
20F.

Thursday...broad but deamplifying upper ridge starts to move over
the area with some mid and high clouds with it. Dry weather is
expected with high temperatures in the low to mid 20s and overnight
lows in the single digits above zero. Overnight wind chills in the
zero to -10F range.

Friday...mid and upper level clouds increase across the area as a
fast moving weather disturbance approaches the area. There is a
small chance for some light after midnight. High temperatures warm
into the low to upper 30s (east to west) with low temperatures in
the upper teens to low 20s.

Saturday...there is some suggestion that Friday nights weather
disturbance moves across the area during the afternoon with
wraparound mixed precipitation mainly along and north of the
interstate. Northwest winds may approach the breezy category with
gusts around 25 mph possible. Current forecast has this area of
precipitation moving east and out of the area around or shortly
after midnight. High temperatures in the mid 30s to around 40 north,
low 40s far south. Low temperatures in the mid teens.&&

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1032 AM MST Sun Dec 4 2016

VFR conditions are expected at both KGLD and KMCK through the TAF
period. Skies will be clear for both sites until the early evening
when high clouds move into the area. Winds will shift from west to
south/southwest during the majority of the period, and then back
towards the northwest towards the end of the period with the
approach of a cold front.

KGLD will see some gusty winds up to 20 kts during the mid
evening just into the very early morning hours on Monday, then
will decrease. KMCK will see LLWS for a 3 to 4 hour period during
the late evening into the early morning hours on Monday up to 40
kts from the southwest.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLT
LONG TERM...99/JTL
AVIATION...CLT



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