Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 230900

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
300 AM MDT Tue May 23 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday night)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Tue May 23 2017

Today-tonight...rain showers and perhaps a thunderstorm will develop
late this morning through much of the afternoon as a weather
disturbance moves south across the area. Precipitation will quickly
come to an end around sunset with the loss of daytime heating and
decreasing moisture availability as dry air aloft moves in. A clear
sky is expected tonight. North winds of 20 to 30 mph with higher
gusts are expected from late morning through mid afternoon before
falling below 10 mph this evening through the overnight hours. High
temperatures should reach the low to mid 60s with overnight lows in
the mid 30s to around 40.

Wednesday-Wednesday night...northeast to southwest oriented ridge
axis moves into the area in between low pressure systems over
Kentucky and north of Montana. 850mb temperatures warm about 8F
(east) to 18F (west) supporting highs in the mid 70s (east) to mid
80s west. Partial mixing supports readings a few degrees lower. Will
stay the course with previous forecast of low to mid 70s. Low
temperatures not as cold with mid 40s to around 50.

Thursday-Thursday night...dry weather is expected in the morning
with thunderstorm chances increasing in the afternoon as a weather
disturbance moves off the Colorado front range and into the western
2/3 of the forecast area. Area will also be under left front quad of
upper jet aiding in upper divergence below modestly unstable
atmosphere. Thunderstorm chances continue through about midnight or
so for the area as the afternoon convection moves east. High
temperature forecast will be tricky given timing of convection and
frontal boundary. Currently have low 70s northwest to mid 80s far
south. Low temperatures in the mid 40s to mid 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 209 AM MDT Tue May 23 2017

Active weather persists during the extended period, with
temperatures near to below normal.

At the start of the period, a closed low spins in southern
Saskatchewan and Manitoba. The corresponding trough extends to the
southwest of the low, leaving nearly zonal flow across the High
Plains. Multiple disturbances pass through the trough during the
extended as the low gradually moves across the US/Canadian border.

On Friday, shower and thunderstorm chances increase in the afternoon
and evening, spreading into Kansas from Colorado. Decent shear and
instability could support a few severe thunderstorms. Precipitation
chances continue on Saturday as the trough progresses from the
Rockies onto the Plains. Mainly dry conditions with an occasional
slight chance for showers and thunderstorms, are forecast on Sunday
and Monday as the system pushes east. Guidance differs with the
track of this system, so will continue to monitor.

Temperatures decrease from the upper 60s/upper 70s on Friday to the
60s/low 70s on Saturday. Then highs slightly rebound and are back in
the 70s across the region by Monday. Low temperatures remain in the
mid 40s to mid 50s.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Tue May 23 2017

For KGLD and KMCK, vfr conditions expected through the period.
Northwest winds around 10kts at taf issuance will increase to
15kts and gusty by 14z then 20kts with gusts 30kts or so from
17z-00z. After 01z winds quickly subside below 10kts from the
north then northwest. There will be a slight chance for rain
showers generally from 17z-23z as a weather disturbance moves
south across the area. Right now cant pinpoint when/if a shower
will move over either terminal so have left them out of the




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