Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 211822
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1222 PM MDT MON JUL 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1220 PM MDT MON JUL 21 2014

WILL BE ADDING GOVE COUNTY TO HEAT ADVISORY. SITES IN THE COUNTY
AT HEAT INDICES OF 105. DEWPOINTS NOT FALLING AS MUCH AS MODELS
SUGGESTING SO AM PESIMISTIC THAT THEY WILL IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
AS A RESULT GOVE COUNTY SHOULD HAVE SEVERAL HOURS OF HEAT INDICES
AROUND 105.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1159 AM MDT MON JUL 21 2014

HEAT INDEX VALUES HAVE REACHED 105 IN PARTS OF GRAHAM AND NORTON
COUNTIES...ABOUT 2 HOURS EARLIER THEN EXPECTED. WILL START THE
ADVISORY NOW WITH EXPIRATION REMAINING UNCHANGED.

HAVE ALSO INTRODUCED THUNDERSTORMS A FEW HOURS EARLIER THEN
PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED GIVEN CURRENT RADAR/MODEL TRENDS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 945 AM MDT MON JUL 21 2014

AT 15Z A SFC TROUGH EXTENDED NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE
AREA. AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH AND WHERE MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS
WERE OBSERVED TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. WEST OF
THE TROUGH PLENTIFUL MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WERE OBSERVED ALONG WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 70S TO MID 80S...ABOUT THE SAME OR AS MUCH
AS 6 DEGREES COOLER WHEN COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO.

CURRENT THINKING FOR THE REST OF THE DAY IS FOR CURRENT AREA OF
CLOUDINESS TO REMAIN OVER THE AREA OR PERHAPS DRIFT EAST. A
WEATHER DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY MOVING NORTHEAST TOWARD TRINIDAD
COLORADO IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE NORTHEAST AND INTO THE
WEST/SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL
BE THE TRIGGER FOR FOR THUNDERSTORMS...SOME POSSIBLY SEVERE. THE
AREAL EXTENT OF THUNDERSTORMS IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM
RED WILLOW AND DECATUR COUNTIES SOUTHWEST THROUGH COLBY/GOODLAND
INTO THE TRIBUNE AND CHEYENNE WELLS AREAS.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...A BIT TRICKY GIVEN THE CLOUDINESS AND LATER
UPDATES LIKELY NEEDED. FOR NOW HAVE MID/UPPER 90S IN FAR EASTERN
COLORADO WITH 100-105 EAST OF THE STATE LINE.

LOOKING AT THE CURRENT HEAT ADVISORY...DESPITE FORECAST HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 103-105 RANGE MODELS ARE SHOWING DEWPOINTS
FALLING DURING THE DAY AS VERY DRY AIR IN THE 850-700 LAYER
EXISTS. THESE LOWER DEWPOINTS WOULD BE TOO LOW AND AS A RESULT
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS (AROUND 105 OR HIGHER) WOULD NOT BE MET. FOR
NOW WILL KEEP IT GOING AND MONITOR TRENDS BUT LATER UPDATES WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 558 AM MDT MON JUL 21 2014

NO MAJOR UPDATES FOR THIS FORECAST. GOING FORECAST IS LOOKING GOOD
AT THIS TIME WITH ONLY ADJUSTMENTS FROM LATEST OBS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 258 AM MDT MON JUL 21 2014

CURRENTLY ACROSS THE REGION...MOSTLY CLEAR TO CLEAR SKIES WITH
TEMPERATURES RANGING IN THE 70S WITH A FEW SPOT 80S...AND DEW POINTS
IN 50S IN WESTERN ZONES...TO THE 60S IN EASTERN ZONES. GOING INTO
SUNRISE...CURRENT CONDITIONS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR YET ANOTHER
HOT DAY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...AS REGION REMAINS UNDER BROAD
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.

SUNNY SKIES WILL ENSUE THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE DAY AND WITH 925 MB
TEMPS RANGING FROM +28C TO +31C...MANY SPOTS WILL SEE 100F. SOME
LOCALIZED AREAS EXPECTED TO GO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE THIS MARK(AIDED
BY HIGHER DEW PT TEMPS)...PROMPTING CONTINUANCE OF HEAT ADVISORY
FOR EASTERN ZONES...WHERE HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL REACH THE 105
RANGE. PLEASE REFER TO LATEST UPDATE FOR MORE INFORMATION.

GOING INTO TONIGHT WITH LEE-SIDE TROUGH TO OUR WEST...WEAK MODEL
INSTABILITY AS IT TRANSFERS SLOWLY COULD TRIGGER A FEW TRW...BUT
WILL BE LIMITED DUE TO STRONG CAP IN PLACE. FOCUS OF ACTIVITY WILL
OCCUR IN CENTRAL/EASTERN ZONES WHERE BETTER DEW POINT FIELD
PERSISTS FROM DAYTIME HRS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 AM MDT MON JUL 21 2014

FOR TUESDAY GOING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MORE OF SAME OVER THE
FORECAST AREA FOR TEMPERATURES AS BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS
OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. ONLY CAVEAT WILL BE
ADDITION OF CLOUD COVER FROM MEANDER FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM LEE-
TROUGH REMNANTS. MINOR INSTABILITY ALONG FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR
MENTION OF TRW...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF BOUNDARY. MODELS
FOR WED/WED NGT HAVE SHORTWAVE MOVING ALONG NORTHERN EDGE OF UPPER
RIDGE AND ACROSS THE CWA...PROMPTING CHANCE FOR TRW/RW. EXPECT
CHANCE POPS FOR THE OCCURRENCE AND WILL BE DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER
AHEAD OF SYSTEM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AND WHETHER SYSTEM CAN
OVERCOME CAP IN PLACE FROM HOT DRY AIR MASS.

CLOSE TO MODEL GUIDANCE FOR HIGH TEMPS TUESDAY...BUT HAVE UNDERCUT
BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES FOR WEDNESDAY AS CLOUD COVER WILL HAMPER
DAYTIME HEATING EFFECTS. OVERALL...90F TO 100F EXPECTED.

LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WILL CONTINUE THE TREND FOR ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS WITH OCCASIONAL CHANCES FOR PRECIP. GUIDANCE IS IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN AND HAS BEEN
CONSISTENT OVER THE PAST FEW CYCLES...AND GIVEN THIS PATTERN IS
FAIRLY TYPICAL FOR JULY HAVE ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE IN THE
FORECAST.

ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE AN UPPER HIGH WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH A GRADUAL
RETROGRADE MOVEMENT TO THE WEST AS IT WEAKENS. ABOVE THIS UPPER HIGH
A RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN EXISTS WITH THE FAIRLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE OVER
THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS ON THURSDAY MOVING EAST AND WEAKENING BY
THE WEEKEND WHILE THE TROUGH BEHIND IT LIFTS FROM THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST NORTHWEST INTO CANADA. THIS EVOLUTION WILL GRADUALLY
CHANGE MID/UPPER FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS FROM ZONAL TO
NORTHWESTERLY.

THURSDAY...AT THE SURFACE A COLD FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH EARLIER IN
THE WEEK WILL LIFT NORTHEAST AS A WARM FRONT ON THURSDAY. AT THE
SAME TIME A WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS
NORTHERN COLORADO AND INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...PROVIDING
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR TERRAIN-BASED STORMS...MOSTLY OFF THE
CHEYENNE RIDGE. STORM MOTIONS DO NOT APPEAR FAST ENOUGH TO BRING
MANY OF THESE STORMS TO THE CWA. SOUNDINGS INDICATE STEEP LOW TO MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH LITTLE CAPE /LESS THAN 500 J/KG MUCAPE/ FOR
ANYTHING THAT DEVELOPS TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF...AND A VERY POOR WIND
PROFILE TO SUSTAIN MORE THAN POP-UP SHOWERS/STORMS /NOTHING STRONGER
THAN 15 KTS BELOW 500MB/. FRONTAL LOCATION WILL BE IMPORTANT FOR
WHETHER OR STORM STORM COVERAGE ENDS UP BEING NOTHING TO ISOLATED OR
MORE SCATTERED ALONG THE FRONT. SOME GUIDANCE KEEPS THE FRONT IN THE
VICINITY BY THE TIME THE BEST LARGE SCALE LIFT ARRIVES...SO FEEL
OKAY WITH SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE PERIOD WITH LOW QPF
VALUES. TEMPS HOT...NEAR 100.

FRIDAY...HOT WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR STORMS ALONG/SOUTH OF US-40 IN
EASTERN COLORADO AND WESTERN KANSAS. GFS DOES INDICATE A STRONG CAP
IN PLACE FOR THE AFTERNOON...AND WHILE THE GEM/ECMWF DO NOT SHOW
THIS CAP THIS MAY SIMPLY BE DUE TO THE LOWER VERTICAL RESOLUTION OF
DATA IN AWIPS. ANOTHER WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN COLORADO...WHICH WILL KICK OFF SOME TERRAIN
BASED STORMS ACROSS THE PALMER DIVIDE. AGAIN...BEST CHANCE LOOKS TO
BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF US-40. TIMING WILL PROBABLY BE LATE IN THE DAY
GIVEN EXPECTED TERRAIN-DRIVEN NATURE OF STORMS...AND IN THE EVENING
1500 TO 2500 J/KG MUCAPE WOULD BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR SOME
INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD THEY SURVIVE THEIR JOURNEY ACROSS THE
COLORADO PLAINS...WITH HEAVY RAIN BEING THE MAIN CONCERN DUE TO VERY
SLOW STORM MOTIONS AND PWATS OVER 1.5 INCHES. HIGHS AGAIN NEAR
100...MAYBE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER.

SATURDAY...COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION LATE FRIDAY
OR EARLY SATURDAY BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS AND A GOOD CHANCE FOR
STORMS. UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IS JUST OKAY...A NUMBER OF WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING ACROSS THE COLORADO ROCKIES WILL MAKE FOR
AT LEAST SOME LARGE-SCALE LIFT...BUT NOTHING OVERLY IMPRESSIVE.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS WITH 1000 TO 2000 J/KG MUCAPE AND 40 TO 50 KTS OF EFFECTIVE
SHEAR WITH A GOOD MIX OF DIRECTIONAL AND SPEED SHEAR. STORM MOTIONS
WILL BE SOUTHEASTERLY...GENERALLY PERPENDICULAR TO THE FRONT MOTION.
EASTERLY FLOW AT LOW LEVELS WILL BRING IN MOISTURE CAUSING PWATS TO
RISE TO 1.3 TO 1.5 INCHES ON SATURDAY NIGHT. EXPECT AT LEAST A WEAK
LOW LEVEL JET TO DEVELOP...SUSTAINING STORMS WELL PAST MIDNIGHT.
HIGHS A BIT COOLER...LOW 90S.

SUNDAY AND BEYOND...SEASONABLE TEMPS WITH AFTERNOON CHANCE FOR
STORMS. AS THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME RETURNS WILL SEE TERRAIN
BASED STORMS MOVE INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE DAY. CAPE/SHEAR VALUES
AGAIN FAVORABLE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS...MUCAPE OVER 2000 J/KG
AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR 40 TO 50 KTS. QUESTIONABLE ON THE LARGE SCALE
LIFT AND WHETHER THE COLD FRONT FROM SATURDAY STALLS OUT ACROSS
WESTERN KANSAS OR NOT...BUT OTHERWISE THERE WILL BE A GOOD POTENTIAL
FOR STRONG STORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1055 AM MDT MON JUL 21 2014

KGLD...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS THROUGH 13Z GENERALLY
FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 10KTS OR LESS. AFTER 13Z COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH SHIFTING WINDS TO THE NORTH THEN NORTHEAST AROUND
10KTS...POSSIBLY A BIT HIGHER AND WITH SOME GUSTS. THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED AT/NEAR THE TERMINAL IN THE 20Z-02Z TIME FRAME...PRIMARY
THREATS WILL BE STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS WHICH COULD PRODUCE AREAS OF
BLOWING DUST AND MVFR VISIBILITIES/CIGS. NO MENTION IN CURRENT
TAF AT THE MOMENT BUT WILL ADD IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES.

KMCK...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS THROUGH 14Z
GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT 10KTS OR LESS. AFTER 14Z WINDS
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST THEN NORTH AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
SPEEDS GENERALLY UNDER 10KTS. THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED AT/NAR THE
TERMINAL IN THE 22Z-24Z TIME FRAME...PRIMARY THREATS SIMILAR TO
KGLD WITH STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS AND POSSIBLY SOME BLOWING DUST AND
REDUCED VISIBILITIES WHICH MAY CREATE MVFR CONDITIONS.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ003-004-015-016-
     029.

CO...NONE.
NE...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ081.

&&

$$

UPDATE...99
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...99





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