Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 142016
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
216 PM MDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 110 PM MDT SUN SEP 14 2014

UPPER FLOW WILL BE NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND MONDAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS
TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY.

SUBSIDENCE WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING WITH DRY CONDITIONS BUT AROUND
MIDNIGHT THERE IS FORCING WITH A COLD FRONT AND SHORTWAVE MOVING
INTO THE REGION. CAPE WILL RANGE FROM 1400 TO 2200J/KG. SHEAR WILL
VARY FROM 35 TO 40KTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FA.  THIS WILL
BE FAVORABLE FOR A FEW LATE NIGHT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. INSTABILITY
DROPS OFF BY 12Z WITH SHOWERS BECOMING THE DOMINANT WEATHER TYPE.
SOME PATCHY FOG WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE FA
OVERNIGHT.  BY 18Z THE FRONT SHOULD BE SOUTH OF THE FA WITH
PRECIPITATION COMING TO AN END. POPS WILL RANGE FROM SLIGHT CHANCE
IN THE WEST TO CHANCE IN THE EASTERN FA.

MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL COOL TO THE LOWER 50S.  MAX
TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 60 IN THE NORTHWEST FA TO
68 IN THE SOUTHEAST.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 216 PM MDT SUN SEP 14 2014

FORECAST PROBLEMS WILL BE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TUESDAY NIGHT
AND DURING THE END OF THE WEEK. SATELLITE SHOWING A CONTINUED
AMPLIFIED PATTERN FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC INTO WESTERN NORTH
AMERICA. ACROSS THE REST OF THE COUNTRY IS A MORE PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN.

AT MID LEVELS...THE UKMET WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE GFS...ECMWF
AND CANADIAN. THE SREF WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE ECMWF ON
THE LOW LEVEL PRESSURE AND WIND FIELD. THE SREF...GFS...NAM AND CANADIAN
WERE DOING THE BEST ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELD.

MONDAY NIGHT...WEAK JET MOVES ACROSS DURING THE NIGHT. AIR MASS
LOOKS TO BE TOO DRY SO THIS PERIOD WILL BE DRY. RETURN FLOW
DEVELOPS ESPECIALLY IN THE WESTERN HALF. ALL MODEL OUTPUT IS IN
AGREEMENT ON SATURATING THE BOUNDARY LAYER RH. RECENT PATTERN HAS
BEEN FAVORABLE FOR REGULAR DEVELOPMENT OF STRATUS AND FOG. SO
INCREASED THE CLOUD COVER AND KEPT THE MENTION OF FOG TO THE WEST.
MINS WILL BE WARMER IN THE WEST WITH THE HIGHER WINDS AND INCREASE
IN CLOUD COVER. EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA WILL HAVE LIGHT WINDS
AND NOT AS MUCH CLOUD COVER. SO PUT THE LOWER MINS THERE.

TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...FOG AND STRATUS WILL LAST INTO THE MORNING
AND HOW FAST THAT BURNS OFF WILL DETERMINE THE HIGH TEMPERATURES.
AT THIS TIME IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKE IT WILL SIGNIFICANTLY AFFECT
TEMPERATURES. IT LOOKS LIKE THE EASTERN PORTION WILL STAY THE
COOLEST AS IT STILL STAYS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE EXITING
SURFACE HIGH. WINDS COULD GET BREEZY EAST OF THE COLORADO BORDER
IN THE AFTERNOON.

INTERESTING PRECIPITATION FORECAST FOR THE NIGHT. AIR MASS STAYS
DRY THROUGH THE EVENING. WEAK JET LIFT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
THIRD TO HALF DURING THE EVENING HOURS. SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALSO
MOVES THROUGH IN THE LAST HALF OF THE NIGHT. FRONT BACKDOORS INTO
THE NORTHEAST DURING THIS SAME TIME. LOW LEVEL JET DOES NOT LOOK
THAT STRONG. ELEVATED INHIBITION STAYS VERY HIGH UNTIL AFTER
MIDNIGHT. AT THIS TIME PUT A SLIGHT CHANCE INTO THE NORTHEAST HALF
BUT THIS PERIOD WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY. ONCE AGAIN
BOUNDARY RH BECOMES SATURATED/NEARLY SATURATED ALONG AND NORTH OF
THE FRONT. SO INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND INTRODUCED SOME PATCHY FOG
ALONG AND NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY.

WEDNESDAY...POSSIBLE THAT SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE IN THE
EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA THROUGH MID MORNING. ALSO FOG WILL BE
AROUND DURING THE MORNING. STRATUS/COLD FRONT ALONG WITH UPSLOPE
WINDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM GETTING TOO WARM. COULD SEE THE
POSSIBILITY OF HAVING HIGH TEMPERATURES COOLER IF CLOUD COVER
HANGS AROUND LONGER OR IF THE FRONT DOES NOT MOVE BACK NORTH AS
FAR AS IT IS INDICATED. COULD DEFINITELY BE A GRADIENT OF
TEMPERATURES FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH COMES THROUGH
IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS MAKES THE
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FAR EASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA
REASONABLE AND DID NOT CHANGE. RIDGING ALOFT WILL KEEP IT DRY
THURSDAY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF FRIDAY.

MODELS HAVE INTO BETTER AGREEMENT IN REGARDS TO THE GENERAL
PATTERN FROM FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY. HOWEVER THERE ARE STILL SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES. GFS IN GENERAL IS CAPTURING THE GENERAL
SCENARIO THE BEST. THE GEFS DOES SUPPORT IT BETTER THAN OTHER
INPUT. BASICALLY THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH REMAINS TO THE WEST OF THE
AREA WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH TROUGH MOVING THROUGH LATE FRIDAY
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. IF THIS IS RIGHT THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE
ODILE COULD POSSIBLY MAKE THIS A WET SETUP.

PER THE NEWEST GUIDANCE AND COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORS...PULLED
POPS BACK FURTHER WEST ON FRIDAY. WE SHOULD NOT SEE ANY
PRECIPITATION UNTIL LATE FRIDAY AND WILL BE CONFINED TO THE
SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA. DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE OUTPUT
POINT TO THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT
AND THE INIT POPS IN THERE LOOK REASONABLE. HOWEVER...PER
REASONING ABOUT...COULD SEE THESE NEEDING TO BE HIGHER.

BECAUSE OF TIMING DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS...AM CONTENT TO
LEAVE WHAT THE CRH_INIT GAVE ME WHICH IS SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT THE MAIN SHORTWAVE COULD BE EAST OF US WITH RIDGING
SETTING IN. THIS COULD MAKE IT DRIER. HOWEVER...COULD ALSO SEE A
WETTER SCENARIO PER THE GEFS OUTPUT OF AREA STAYING IN SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WITH PERIODIC SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING THROUGH.

SO WILL WAIT ON MAKING ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THIS PERIOD
UNTIL IT BECOMES MORE CLEAR. OVERALL OUTSIDE OF FRIDAY POPS MADE
NO CHANGES TO THE INIT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1133 AM MDT SUN SEP 14 2014

VFR CONDITIONS HAVE RESUMED AT KGLD AND WILL CONTINUE AT KGLD AND
KMCK THE REST OF TODAY AND UNTIL AROUND 09Z MONDAY. AT THAT TIME A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA BRINGING SOME PATCHY FOG AND
GUSTY NORTH WINDS. A DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL PROVIDE FORCING FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL. THE FOG WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT
SO IT SHOULD NOT LAST LONG. HOWEVER STRATUS WILL PERSIST CAUSING A
REDUCTION TO MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS UNTIL LATE MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...BULLER
AVIATION...FS


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