Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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478
FXUS63 KGLD 161950
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1250 PM MST Sat Dec 16 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday night)
Issued at 238 AM MST Sat Dec 16 2017

Across the Tri State region this morning...much of the CWA is under
a clear sky with only NW portions of the area starting to see the
leading edge of a low/mid cloud mix. This line is associated with a
frontal boundary set to traverse the region late today into tonight.
Temperatures are currently ranging from the mid 20s up to the mid
30s...with a light WSW surface wind.

Going into today...the region will see a slow increase in cloud
cover as the cold front trudges slowly southeastward. This will work
out ahead of a digging upper trough thru the Rockies that sets up
over the Plains region thru the weekend into next Monday. It will be
the set up of the front over the region that will be the main wx
concern during the first 72 hours of the forecast. Models carry the
surface over western KS...with much of the CWA on the north side of
the boundary later tonight into 12z Sunday. Abundant low level
moisture is present and will provide some patchy freezing
drizzle/fog to set up over the area...especially after 06z Sunday.

Lack of any major push/progression from the upper trough going into
Sunday is going to allow clouds to linger...as well as the chances
for patchy freezing fog/drizzle to linger thru at least 16z Sunday
when area temps start to go above freezing. Light glazing of ice is
possible on exposed surfaces during this time. Travel could be
impacted thru midday Sunday.

Surface ridging from the Rockies slowly nudges into the area late
Sunday on thru Monday night...providing dry conditions.

For temps...low to mid 50s at best for the area...but will be capped
thru the day due to increasing clouds from the NW. CAA behind the
expected front will give daytime highs Sunday in a range from the
upper 30s to low 40s. With the return of high pressure Monday...low
to mid 50s. Overnight lows will range from the upper teens into the
mid and upper 20s...coldest Sunday night into Monday due to clearing
skies.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 1250 PM MST Sat Dec 16 2017

Sunday night-Monday night...may have a few low clouds early Sunday
night before drier air moves in from the west. For Monday and Monday
night a few mid and high clouds move in from the northwest with dry
conditions expected. Low temperatures Sunday night in the mid teens
to low 20s. High temperatures Monday look to reach the mid to upper
50s. For Monday night low temperatures in the low to mid 20s.

Tuesday-Tuesday night...perhaps a few high clouds per 300mb humidity
otherwise little if any clouds and dry. High temperatures expected
to be in the low to mid 50s with lows in the low to mid 20s.

Wednesday-Wednesday night...upper flow shifts to the southwest late
in the day ahead of an upper level trough diving southeast into
Nevada and Utah. This trough deepens with a closed 500mb low over
southwest Utah by 12z Thursday per GFS/GEM. 850mb temperatures warm
into the 7C to 10C range supporting highs in the mid 50s to around
60. High clouds increase from the west ahead of the trough during
the day. For the overnight hours could see some low clouds and
perhaps some fog from McCook to near Gove and points east through
midnight as saturated boundary layer moisture moves up from the
south ahead of cold front. Otherwise am expecting breezy to windy
north winds after midnight as cold front moves through. Moisture in
the 850-500mb layer and model qpf supports a very brief period of
light rain and snow before changing over to light snow before
sunrise across the northwest 1/3 of the area. Low temperatures in
the mid teens northwest to mid 20s far east.

Thursday...breezy to windy north winds expected through much of the
day becoming 10 mph or less during the night. 850mb temperatures of
-9C to -14C expected with MEX guidance showing highs in the mid
 20s. These "high" temperatures may come early in the day before
 slowly falling during the afternoon as colder air filters in from
 the north. Low temperatures generally in the single digits above
 zero range. Regarding precipitation chances, they appear to
 increase into the chance to likely category during the day as
 moisture in the 850-500mb layer moves in ahead of a separate
 upper level trough to the northwest of the area. Precipitation
 type will primarily be light snow. The combination of the snow
 and gusty north winds may produce some blowing snow.

Friday...daytime period looks dry with high temperatures in the low
30s. Precipitation chances increase across the northwest corner of
the area after midnight as an area of 850-500mb moisture moves in
from the northwest supporting some light snow. Low temperatures in
the single digits to 15 degree range above zero.

Saturday...area of moisture noted above slowly sinks south during
the day supporting a slight chance to low chance of light snow
across the western 1/2 or so of the area under a partly to mostly
cloudy sky. High temperatures in the upper 20s to low 30s.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1037 AM MST Sat Dec 16 2017

Conditions at MCK and GLD will start out VFR today and transition
through MVFR conditions between 05-07Z as lower clouds spread
across the region following the passage of a cold front.
Conditions will lower to IFR between 09-11Z due to lower ceilings
with intermittent light freezing drizzle possible briefly between
11-13Z.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...LOCKHART



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