Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 262047
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
247 PM MDT Sun Mar 26 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 229 PM MDT Sun Mar 26 2017

Across the forecast area this afternoon...skies are mainly cloudy
with a few breaks showing up over portions of the CWA. The shortwave
bringing the veil of low cloud to the area is moving slowly across
extreme SW Kansas at this time...with a continued slow trudge
eastward for the rest of the afternoon into the evening hrs.
Temperatures across the area have upticked a few degrees since this
morning...with all locales in the 40s. With the CWA being on the
north edge of the passing system...showers still continue to
pinwheel thru the CWA. There have been a few lightning strikes with
these passing showers...so will be continuing a mention of until 03z
Monday.

Going into tonight...as the shortwave and associated precip band
shifts eastward away from the forecast area...do expect a slow
clearing trend into Monday morning. High pressure does begin to
shift east to replace the exiting system. As it does so...with
skies clearing out...winds will also become more light and
variable. With this and the abundant low level moisture in place
from the past few days...do expect fog to develop overnight into
Monday morning. Have trended wording to show patchy fog at
first...but as more of the region clear out after 06z
Monday...have brought in areas of fog. Overnight lows will drop
into the low 30s. Some locales could see near 30F overnight...and
with moisture on roadways...monitoring for slick roadways will
have to occur.

For Monday...looking for fog to dissipate/burn off by the mid-morning
hrs under full sunshine as surface ridge continues to build over the
area. Dry conditions expected for the remainder of the day. Current
expected conditions will have daytime highs top off in the mid
60s for the entire CWA.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 247 PM MDT Sun Mar 26 2017

Monday night-Thursday night: Large Upper Level Low pressure is still
advertised to bring rain (possibly mixed with snow during
night/morning periods beginning Monday night through Thursday
morning. Guidance is still showing anomalously moist air mass
advecting towards our CWA, and now GFS is showing enough instability
that we may see isolated or even scattered thunderstorms embedded
within the periods/waves of precipitation rotating through the region
Tuesday night through Wednesday. ECMWF is not as favorable, but I
felt it was worth adding thunder wording to the forecast. GFS shows
enough CAPE coinciding with strong shear in our west to raise the
possibility of a few strong or even marginally severe thunderstorms
Tuesday afternoon/evening. I also trended temps back down from blend
to account for impact of widespread precip Tuesday and Wednesday
(towards cooler end of statistical guidance).

Two other recent model trends worth mentioning for these periods:
Models are starting to favor the eastern and southern CWA for
heaviest precip potential, but this shouldn`t impact precip
potential. The other trend is for models to speed up the exit of
precip and arrival of shortwave ridge Thursday. Current guidance now
favors dry conditions returning by Thursday night (instead of
Friday). I made adjustments to account for these trends, but it still
appears everyone in our CWA is in line for at least measurable
precip Tuesday night-Wednesday and I kept PoPs in line with previous
forecast.

Friday night-Sunday: The next upper low is shown to arrive by Friday
(faster than previous guidance had indicated), and blend picked up
on this quicker trend. Models are showing a little better CAA on the
back side of this system and this could result in a better chance of
snow accumulations. Even then it would be on the slushy side and
models are varying on the evolution of the system and where the main
cold pool would develop. Due to the change in timing and uncertainty
on finer details the only change I made during these periods was to
CAP PoPs below "likely" category.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1126 AM MDT Sun Mar 26 2017

For KGLD...MVFR/IFR mix thru 23z Sunday with ceilings BKN005-025.
6sm in light showers and fog. After 23z...VFR thru 06z Monday.
From 06z-14z...MVFR/IFR fog with visibility down to a range of 1
1/2sm to 5sm at times. By 14z Monday...VFR. Winds...ENE around
10kts thru 06z Monday with a transition to WSW around 5-10kts by
12z Monday.

For KMCK...MVFR/IFR mix thru 03z Monday with ceilings BKN008-015
and light showers or sprinkles. From 03z-08z VFR. From 08z to 15z
Monday MVFR/IFR mix in fog with visibility 1 1/2sm to 3sm at
times. VFR from 15z onward. Winds ENE around 10kts thru 03z
Monday...then becoming light and variable.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...JN


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