Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 010532
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1132 PM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

THE UPPER RIDGE IN PLACE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION AND ROCKIES
FLATTENS SOMEWHAT AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH TOPPING THE RIDGE TODAY
MOVES EAST OF THE ROCKIES AND THROUGH THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS REGION OVERNIGHT WITH NORTHWEST FLOW PERSISTING OVER
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE SURFACE LEE TROUGH DEEPENING ALONG THE FRONT RANGE MOVES EAST
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH THROUGH
THE AREA BETWEEN 06Z-12Z. AS A RESULT...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ABOUT 5 DEGREES COOLER ON WEDNESDAY THAN ON TUESDAY.

THE GFS IS CONSISTENTLY DEPICTING PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING ALONG
THE FRONT AS IT APPROACHES THE REGION AND MOVES THROUGH OVERNIGHT.
THE NAM ALSO HINTS AT PRECIPITATION ONLY OVER THE FAR NORTHWEST
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WHILE THE ECMWF REMAINS DRY. HAVE
TENDED TO FOLLOW THE NAM A BIT MORE CLOSELY WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO IN THE FORECAST
OVERNIGHT AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN SHOULD
LARGELY REMAIN UNCHANGED. OVERALL...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
PERSISTS FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT WEEK. WITH A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
SITUATED OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES...RESULTING NORTHWEST FLOW
OVER THE HIGH PLAINS WILL ALLOW SHORTWAVE TROUGHS TO PASS THROUGH.
EACH TROUGH WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

BEGINNING WITH WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...THE FIRST OF A SERIES
OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS PASSES THROUGH. MOST FORECAST GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT THIS WILL BE A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT DISTURBANCE. MOST
LIKELY...THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP OVER MONTANA AND WYOMING...CONGEALING
INTO A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM AND CONTINUING SOUTHEAST.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS UNTIL
THE THUNDERSTORMS MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. INSTABILITY SHOULD
PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT SO SEE NO REASON THAT THESE STORMS
COULDNT REACH THE FORECAST AREA. THE MAIN THREATS WITH THESE STORMS
WOULD BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. ALSO...PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES SHOULD APPROACH TWO STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR. HEAVY RAINS MAY BE POSSIBLE AS A RESULT. AM A LITTLE
UNSURE OF A FLASH FLOOD THREAT DUE TO THE RECENT DRY SPELL WHICH
ALLOWED SOILS TO DRY SOME COMPARED TO EARLIER THIS MONTH.

THUNDERSTORM REDEVELOPMENT APPEARS LIKELY THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH
RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES...AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE AND SHORTWAVE
TROUGH IN PLACE. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WOULD BE POSSIBLE.
THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST IS SOMEWHAT COMPLICATED THURSDAY DUE TO
RESIDUAL CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES. FORECAST HIGH
TEMPERATURES MAY BE TOO WARM. ONCE THE SHORTWAVE PUSHES INTO THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... PRECIPITATION CHANCES SHOULD BRIEFLY COME TO
AN END THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVE WITH PASSING DISTURBANCES
FRIDAY EVENING...SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. A
FEW STRONG AND SEVERE STORMS WOULD BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES...SUNDAY APPEARS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD. OTHERWISE...NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE
ANTICIPATED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1132 PM MDT TUE JUN 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT BOTH KGLD AND
KMCK TERMINALS. CURRENTLY MONITORING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER
NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO AND CENTRAL NEBRASKA. WHILE THE MOTION IS
TOWARDS THE SOUTH...SHORT RANGE HI RES GUIDANCE STILL FAVORS THIS
ACTIVITY DISSIPATING BEFORE IT REACHES EITHER TERMINAL...SO I HAVE
OPTED TO KEEP MENTION OUT OF TAFS FOR NOW. THERE HAVE BEEN
REPORTS OF 50 MPH OUTFLOW SPREADING SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF THIS
ACTIVITY...AND AT THIS POINT IT IS HARD TO SAY IF THIS WILL MAKE
IT TO EITHER TERMINAL BEFORE LOOSING MOMENTUM...SO WILL NEED TO
MONITOR UPSTREAM TRENDS. OTHERWISE PREVAILING WINDS WILL
EVENTUALLY SHIFT TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST BY THE LATER PART OF
THE TAF PERIOD WITH A PERIOD OF GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE AT KGLD
WEDNESDAY BEHIND SURFACE TROUGH AXIS/WEAK FRONT.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...RRH
AVIATION...DR



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