Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 210814

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
214 AM MDT THU JUL 21 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Thursday)
Issued at 127 PM MDT Wed Jul 20 2016

Large scale mid-upper level ridging continues to dominated the
pattern across the US, with monsoonal flow (apparent on WV imagery)
rotating around the western edge of the ridge.

Regarding heat advisory: Temperatures are still in the process of
increasing early this afternoon and already in the mid to upper 90s
for most locations. Tds have mixed lower in the west (as expected),
however they have held up in our east and heat index values should
approach advisory criteria before temperatures begin decreasing.
There is a little less certainty on highs Thursday due to the
possibility of better thunderstorm coverage (discussed below),
however consensus continues to favor at least similar highs as today
and possibly higher Tds raising the possibility some eastern
locations could see heat indices approach 110. Friday highs are
discussed in the long term section. Confidence continues to remain
high enough to maintain current advisory through Friday, though
there could be a larger spread in heat index values in advised area
than currently indicated.

This afternoon-Tonight: Shower/thunderstorm activity has already
developed over higher terrain in colorado and mean flow sill tend
to bring this towards the northwest part of our CWA. Local CAPE
values are relatively weak (500 J/KG MU CAPE), CIN is very strong,
and with main region of forcing well to the west I am not confident
we would see see local initiation this afternoon in all but our far
west near surface trough axis. Better chances would be associated
with activity spreading eastward or outflow weakening the CIN
locally. Strongest signal from high resolution guidance is in our
far western CWA, and this is where I kept chance PoPs.

Thursday: There is a shift in the ridge to the east allowing for
southwest flow to develop over our cwa. This shifts the monsoonal
axis towards northwest Kansas and results in increasing in moisture
profiles and forcing above 700mb. Higher resolution guidance still
favors isolated to widely scattered activity, however considering
the shift in pattern I could see coverage being better than
consensus indicates. CAPE values increase to the 1500-2000 J/KG
range, however effective bulk shear will roughly be in the 15 kt to
25 kt range, so an organized severe threat is unlikely. PWAT values
will increase to be almost 1.5" and considering warm air mass and
skinny CAPE profiles we could see localized heavy rainfall with any
thunderstorm activity.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 212 AM MDT Thu Jul 21 2016

A cold front will approach the region on Sunday and provide a focus
for afternoon and evening thunderstorms. Areas in the northeastern
portions of the CWA could see storms persist through sunrise on
Monday as the front stalls and begins to retract north and eastward.
A weak shortwave and associated trailing theta-e boundary will be
just northwest of the CWA and provide a focus for thunderstorms
Tuesday afternoon and evening before moving east overnight.
Temperatures sunday through Tuesday will be around the seasonal
average in the upper 80s to low 90s.

Lingering thunderstorms will exit the region to the east Wednesday
morning with dry weather expected the remainder of the day as high
pressure builds to the west. Temperatures will begin increasing once
more in the presence of the building ridge and we could once more
see above normal temps in the middle to upper 90s heading into the
middle/end of next week.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1030 PM MDT Wed Jul 20 2016

For KGLD and KMCK, vfr conditions expected through the period.
Upper level high pressure currently centered over southern Kansas
is forecast to drift slowly west late tomorrow afternoon through
midnight. Moisture plume that has produced late afternoon and
evening showers and thunderstorms to the west of the terminals is
forecast to shift eastward a bit bringing a slight increase in
precipitation potential for both terminals. With precipitable
water values increasing and fairly slow storm motions mvfr
visibilities are possible. Given the possibility of convection is
18 or so hours out wont include a mention at present time.
Otherwise expect some mid and high clouds through the period.
Winds begin the period from the southwest under 10kts with a
gradual veering to the west then northwest through 16z. After 17z
winds become light and variable.


.GLD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Friday for KSZ002>004-014>016-028-

NE...Heat Advisory until 6 PM MDT /7 PM CDT/ Friday for NEZ079>081.



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