Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 172300

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
500 PM MDT Sun Sep 17 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 235 PM MDT Sun Sep 17 2017

Main forecast issue will be the chance of precipitation. There is
some elevated instability at this time with very little lift aloft.
Despite that isolated thunderstorms have developed over the eastern
portion of the area. Later this afternoon and mainly tonight, a
stronger shortwave trough along with increasing instability and
negative theta-e lapse rates will thunderstorm coverage to increase

Considering the presence of a weak coupled jet structure and rather
strong mesoscale forcing, raised pops into the high chance to likely
category with the higher pops further east. However, there is not a
lot of agreement in the high resolution models in regards to timing
and location of greater coverage. Also because of problems with the
convective specifics, some models are also producing fog with that
output not even agreeing on where that will be. Decided not to
introduce fog at this time, and brief the evening shift on this.

Precipitation moves out early tomorrow with a warmup but just sure
how much. Wind field is not that helpful to a huge warmup plus not
sure how fast the clouds will although I think faster clearing is
more likely. So went ahead and went with a blend on the high

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 219 PM MDT Sun Sep 17 2017

Monday night-Thursday: Dry through this period. Cool, cold front
will push through the area Tuesday night. Temps will be well above
normal Tuesday and Thursday and near normal on Wednesday.

Friday-Sunday: Very active weather for the weekend. Deepening
longwave trough/closed low will be approaching the area Friday. At
the surface, a cold front will move through portions of the area and
stall out. This will help to provide the focus for numerous showers
and storms. Models still differ on timing and strength of cold air.
ECMWF looks to be slower with the upper level low and warmer, while
the GFS is much more progressive and much colder. Some areas could
receive over 1 of rain through Sunday afternoon. If today`s 12Z
GFS MOS Guidance verifies, high temperatures on Saturday and
Sunday would only be in the low 60s for much of the area.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 500 PM MDT Sun Sep 17 2017

KGLD, mvfr cigs expected from taf issuance through about 08z then
lowering to ifr/vlifr range through 14z-15z then vfr for rest of
the taf period. There will be a chance for showers/possible
thunderstorms in the 03z-06z timeframe as a weather disturbance
moves through. Winds will be all over the compass through the
period at speeds under 11kts.

KMCK, mvfr cigs expected from taf issuance through 07z then
ifr/vlifr cigs expected from 08z-17z then vfr after 18z. Could see
showers/possible thunderstorms move across in the 05z-08z
timeframe. Winds begin the period from the southeast near 11kts
but should quickly decrease below 06kts and be variable in
direction this evening through rest of taf period.




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