Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 182006
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
206 PM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 205 PM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014

LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATE A BROAD
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND HIGH PLAINS.
UNDERCUTTING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WAS A COMPACT SHORT WAVE TROUGH
BRINGING LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL TO THE TX/OK PANHANDLES. THE
SHORT WAVE WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA SO DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY
RAINFALL FROM IT OVER THE SOUTHERN PARTS.  MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE
BREEZY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON THEN BECOME LIGHT
BY EARLY EVENING AS MIXING ENDS.

TONIGHT SOUTH WINDS WILL BE LIGHT.  WITH A WARMER AIRMASS IN
PLACE...DUE TO THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FROM LAST NIGHT MOVING
FURTHER EAST INTO MISSOURI...LOWS WILL WARMER.

SUNDAY SOUTH WINDS WILL TURN TO THE NORTH THROUGH THE DAY BEHIND A
SURFACE TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST.  DUE TO
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVERHEAD BEHIND THE SURFACE TROUGH WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT THROUGH THE DAY.  HIGHS WILL BE ALMOST 10 DEGREES WARMER
THAN TODAY DUE TO WARMER AIR MOVING IN UNDER THE RIDGE.


.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 AM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014

FORECAST GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. THIS INCLUDES THE OVERALL WEATHER
PATTERN...A PRECIPITATION-PRODUCING SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT MOVES
THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND A CONTINUATION OF THE ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE MAIN CONCERN OVER THIS PERIOD IS THE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

PERIOD BEGINS WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH HEADS INTO THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS. SOUTH/SOUTHEAST
WINDS WITH WARM/MOIST AIR ADVECTION THROUGHOUT TUESDAY SHALL PRIME
THE ATMOSPHERE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS ON WEDNESDAY. CLIMATOLOGICAL
NORMALS SUGGEST THAT HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TUESDAY SHOULD BE IN THE
LOW TO MID 60S. BASED ON 850 MB TEMPERATURES...THOSE NORMALS ARE
EASILY EXCEEDED WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S EXPECTED.

THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE ROCKIES TUESDAY TRAVERSES THE
HIGH PLAINS WEDNESDAY...BRINGING A BOUT OF ACTIVE WEATHER. THIS
SYSTEM HAS AN INTRIGUING LOOK TO IT AS THERE ARE FAVORABLE HEIGHT
FALLS...AN INCREASE IN 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR TO 30-40 KTS...MUCAPE OF
500-1000 J/KG...850-500 MB LAPSE RATES OF 7-8 C/KM AND PRECIPITABLE
WATER (ACCORDING TO THE GFS) UP TO AROUND 1.2 INCHES. THESE FORECAST
PRECIPITABLE WATER READINGS REPRESENT AN ATMOSPHERE 2-3 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL IN TERMS OF MOISTURE CONTENT. DUE TO THE
PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM...DO NOT THINK FLOODING WOULD BE A
CONCERN BUT BRIEF HEAVY RAINS WOULD BE POSSIBLE. THE WIND
SHEAR/INSTABILITY/SHORTWAVE PARAMETERS INDICATE A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WITH A WINDOW FOR SOME STRONG/SEVERE STORMS. WILL HOLD
OFF ON A STRONG/SEVERE MENTION FOR WEDNESDAY DUE TO CONCERNS ABOUT
INSTABILITY AND CLOUD COVER BUT IT IS A SYSTEM THAT NEEDS TO BE
WATCHED.

BEYOND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...YET ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD
BUILD IN AND REMAIN OVERHEAD THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE BASICALLY GUARANTEED WITH NO INDICATIONS OF
A STRONG FALL COLD FRONT MOVING IN. PRECIPITATION-FREE WEATHER
RESUMES THURSDAY BEHIND THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1117 AM MDT SAT OCT 18 2014

VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE 18Z TAFS. BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON THEN BECOME LIGHT BY EARLY
EVENING. TOWARD SUNRISE A SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
TRI-STATE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST...CAUSING THE WINDS TO TURN
TOWARD THE NORTH BEHIND IT DURING THE MORNING.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JTL
LONG TERM...RRH
AVIATION...JTL


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