Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 082318

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
418 PM MST Fri Dec 8 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Saturday)
Issued at 215 PM MST Fri Dec 8 2017

Amplified ridge-trough pattern remains in place across the CONUS,
with north-northwest flow over our CWA. Unidirectional flow through
the deep layer of the atmosphere and a strong mid level jet streak
have supported windy conditions this afternoon. Mixing has been
limited however, and so far earlier guidance appears to have
overestimated mixing heights over our CWA, with strongest winds
near downslope regions of higher terrain in eastern Colorado. I
still can`t rule out a few brief gusts near or just past High Wind
Warning criteria in our far west, so I`ve held off on canceling
the warning early.

RH values have also remain above RFW criteria, however
considering the magnitude of the wind and dry fuels I have been
inclined to keep the warning in place. Both Red Flag Warning and
High Wind Warning are still scheduled for a 00Z (5 PM MST)

Tonight-Saturday: Air mass continues to moderate as heights rise
from the west to the east. Northerly flow remains in place and
breezy to windy conditions will still be possible depending on
daytime mixing. Highs may approach 60F Saturday, and RH values may
drop to near 15% in our west. I have less confidence in winds as
stronger gusts (25mph+) will tend to be favored further east where
stronger gradient in advertised. There has been a trend for models
to overestimate depth of dry adiabatic layer, and even in eastern
locations predominant gusts may remain below 25 mph. It could be
close, and ultimately we may see a narrow corridor of 1hr 15% RH/25
mph gusts in our far west. I am hold off on fire weather highlights
for Saturday, but have kept "near critical" mention in HWO.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 140 PM MST Fri Dec 8 2017

For the extended period...the region will see amplified H5/H7
ridging over the western portion of the country...w/ a cutoff upper
low/trough combo over the east. The Tri State region lies between
these two systems.

From Saturday night right on thru next Friday...the area will be
under mainly NW flow aloft with WNW flow at the surface. Latest
models runs do bring several shortwaves up and over the upper
ridge...but carry the dynamics north of the area before getting
caught in the circulation of the trough/low to the east.

This is going to bring dry conditions to the area thru the period.
What will be brought to the area though are several periods of windy
conditions on Monday and again on Wed/Thurs. For now with models
showing potential mixing to near 700mb Monday...this looks to be the
strongest potential around 25-35 mph with higher gusts.

West-northwest downslope conditions from the surface up to 500mb
will also bring surface RH readings down to 15 percent or less for
Sunday...and mainly 20 percent or less for areas west of Highway 25
on Monday and Tuesday. Lacking will be the wind criteria to be met
at this time for Fire Wx concerns.

The area will see above normal temps thru the period with highs
Sunday in the 60s tempering down to the 50s for the
remainder...reinforced by CAA with the passage of each shortwave
next week. Overnight lows will drop into the mid and upper 20s.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 416 PM MST Fri Dec 8 2017

VFR conditions forecast for the TAFs. Winds will be around 15kts
through the night. KGLD will have breezy winds Saturday while
winds at KMCK will change little from the night.


CO...High Wind Warning until 5 PM MST this afternoon for COZ090>092.

     Red Flag Warning until 5 PM MST this afternoon for COZ252>254.



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