Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 211859

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1259 PM MDT Sun May 21 2017

Issued at 925 AM MDT Sun May 21 2017

Update to forecast to adjust temps from latest obs. Overall
forecast is in good shape with region a psunny/msunny mix.
Inverted surface trough over the southern Rockies. Showers ahead
of this feature currently moving eastward along and south of
southern CWA border. As this system works eastward into the
southern Plains region this expect increased
activity along and ahead of trough.


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 235 AM MDT Sun May 21 2017

The upper low continues to lift into the Great Lakes region today
with surface high pressure sliding out of the forecast area and
into the southern high plains as a weak surface trough moves
across the region overnight. A weak short wave trough embedded in
the westerly flow aloft will move east across the region this
evening, which will aid in the development of thunderstorms across
the forecast area following the destabilization of the airmass
this afternoon as highs reach into the lower 70s.

Scattered thunderstorms are possible again Monday afternoon and
evening as a weak low center caught up in the flow around the low
over the Great Lakes region begins to orbit the main low as a
short wave trough that sweeps through the central high plains
region during the evening and overnight hours. With the assistance
of the stronger short wave aloft, there is a marginal risk of a
few storms becoming severe with hail and damaging wind gusts.

Tuesday will be 5-10 degrees cooler than Monday as stronger cold
air advection with unidirectional northerly flow through the
column pulls a cooler area of high pressure at the surface southward
from the northern plains into the central and southern high
plains regions. A few showers may be observed across the forecast
area on Tuesday as another weaker short wave trough circulates
around the main upper low center and moves over the forecast area.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 1255 PM MDT Sun May 21 2017

Chc PoPs remain in the forecast Monday night as an upper low moves
southeastward into the southern Great Lakes region, extending a
trough to the southwest. Showers and thunderstorm chances are
highest before midnight with diminishing chances from midnight
through sunrise. Slgt chc to chc PoPs are again in the forecast
Tuesday with showers/thunderstorms possible mainly during the
afternoon hours. Shortwave high pressure moves into the region on
Wednesday with dry weather expected to prevail through the day and
into the overnight.

Thursday and Friday will be more active, with afternoon
thunderstorms expected both days. An upper low will traverse the
northern plains, extending a trough southward into the region that
will interact with increasing instability and moisture. Shear will
increase through the afternoon on Thursday with only minimal deep
layer shear in place across the entire CWA on Friday. The main
thunderstorm chances will be during the late afternoon on Thursday
with a more prolonged chance of thunderstorms on Friday. At this
point, severe thunderstorms are possible both days with Thursday`s
threat being mainly in the southeastern portions of CWA and Friday`s
threat extending westward across the entire CWA.

Shower and thunderstorm chances will continue into the weekend as
the upper low stalls in the northern Plains. Instability will be in
place; however, it will be much lower than on previous days. Shear
will be a bit lower as well, leading to a lingering threat of strong
storms but with far less coverage of severe thunderstorms.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1129 AM MDT Sun May 21 2017

For KGLD...VFR conditions thru the forecast period. VCTS from 21z
this afternoon thru 04z Monday. Winds...NW 5-10kts thru 21z then
light/variable. By 04z Monday...WSW around 10kts thru 14z
Monday...then NW.

For KMCK...VFR conditions thru the forecast period. Winds
meandering from WNW to WSW around 10kts.




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