Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 130435
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1135 PM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014

A MID/UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO SPRAWL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL CONUS WHILE A VIGOROUS TROUGH WAS DIGGING SOUTHEAST OVER
MANITOBA AND INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS STATES. THIS WILL SERVE TO
DRIVE A COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. ANOTHER
MORE ROBUST COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE IN THE WAKE OF A MORE
VIGOROUS TROUGH MOVING OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/GREAT LAKES
AREA ON MONDAY KEEPING HIGHS 15+ DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TUE-WED ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WAS MEANDERING ALONG A LINE FROM NORTHWEST
KANSAS INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO SAG SOUTHWARD TONIGHT POSSIBLY PROVIDING A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIMITED WITH
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST EXTENT AS THE CAP INCREASES AND THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR
DECREASES. A STRONG STORM OR TWO MAY BE POSSIBLE...HOWEVER ORGANIZED
SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

STORMS MAY REDEVELOP AFTER 17-19Z...MAINLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS AS THE CAP DIMINISHES ALONG THE FRONT.
ONCE AGAIN...AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM OR TWO MAY BE POSSIBLE BUT
ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED. THE FOCUS IS EXPECTED TO
SHIFT SOUTH ALONG THE FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER MAINTAINED LOW
POPS WEIGHTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES FOR UNCERTAINTY IN HOW FAR
SOUTH THE FRONT WILL PROGRESS.

ANOTHER MORE POTENT COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY
BUT DUE TO A SLOW ARRIVAL TEMPERATURES MAY RISE TO AROUND 90 PRIOR
TO FROPA. SCATTERED STORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE FRONT POSSIBLY
LINGERING INTO MONDAY EVENING ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS BEFORE DRIER
AND MUCH COOLER AIR ADVECTED ACROSS THE AREA.

TUE-WED...AN UNSEASONABLY COOL AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL CONUS ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO CLIMB MUCH
ABOVE NORMAL LOW TEMPERATURES FOR MID JULY. MAINTAINED LOW POPS
WEIGHTED IN THE WESTERN ZONES LATE TUE NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGS OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ROCKIES IN
NORTHWEST MID/UPPER FLOW. IT STILL APPEARS THE FOCUS FOR DEEP MOIST
CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA BUT SOME ACTIVITY
MAY DRIFT INTO CENTRAL KANSAS BEFORE DISSIPATING.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014

RISING HEIGHTS AND INCREASING THICKNESS WILL SUPPORT RISING
TEMPERATURES AS WE MOVE TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. HIGHS BY
SATURDAY WILL BEGIN TO FEEL MORE LIKE JUNE WITH MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES NEAR 90 AND MINIMUMS NEAR 70. MAINTAINED LOW POPS ON
SATURDAY BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS FAIRLY LOW AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1133 PM CDT SAT JUL 12 2014

A FRONT BOUNDARY WILL SAG SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS
TONIGHT AND REACH SOUTHERN KANSAS BY SUNDAY MORNING. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER MAINLY CENTRAL
KANSAS TONIGHT. MEANWHILE WINDS WILL VEER AROUND TO THE NORTH
BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG WITH SOME MID-LEVEL CLOUDS
FLOATING OVERHEAD.

JAKUB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    72  89  70  89 /  20  30  20  30
HUTCHINSON      72  87  69  90 /  20  20  20  30
NEWTON          71  87  68  89 /  20  30  20  30
ELDORADO        70  89  68  88 /  10  30  20  30
WINFIELD-KWLD   71  93  69  90 /  10  20  20  30
RUSSELL         70  87  68  87 /  40  20  20  30
GREAT BEND      70  86  67  89 /  30  20  20  30
SALINA          72  89  70  90 /  30  20  20  30
MCPHERSON       71  87  69  90 /  20  20  20  30
COFFEYVILLE     71  95  71  88 /   0  30  30  30
CHANUTE         72  90  69  88 /  10  30  20  30
IOLA            72  89  69  88 /  10  30  20  30
PARSONS-KPPF    71  92  70  88 /   0  30  30  30

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$






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