Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 192332
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
632 PM CDT Sat Aug 19 2017

...Updated for Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 316 PM CDT Sat Aug 19 2017

Water vapor imagery shows upper trough swinging across the
northeast CONUS with a southern stream impulse approaching
southern NM. At the surface, a very moist airmass is in place
across the southern Plains into southern KS with dewpoints in the
mid to upper 70s. A weak convergence zone is setup south of I-70
in the Flint Hills where a couple storms have developed.

With an extremely unstable airmass and a weak boundary, should
see a storm or two continue over eastern KS into the early evening
hours. Meanwhile, the more widespread convection should occur
over southern Nebraska/northern KS tonight as afternoon high
Plains convection rolls southeast aided by increasing 850-700mb
moisture transport. Some of this activity my skirt locations along
and north of I-70 tonight with some of it lingering across
eastern KS Sun morning.

Another warm muggy day is expected Sun with current thinking the
mid to upper 70 dewpoints remain over southeast KS. Should see
another MCS Sun night along the baroclinic zone which will be
situated over Nebraska. Just like tonight, some of this activity
may try and flirt with northern portions of our forecast area with
the better chances northeast of the forecast area. Still good
model agreement that unseasonably strong shortwave energy will
track across the northern Plains and into the northern Mississippi
Valley Mon and into the Great Lakes Mon night. This will allow a
strong cold front to start pushing south. At the same time,
southern stream impulse approaching NM, will lift out across
western KS Mon-Mon evening. All of these features will combine to
produce widespread convection along the front Mon evening through
Tue morning. By Tue evening the front south be south of our
forecast area with much cooler and drier air spilling into KS.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 316 PM CDT Sat Aug 19 2017

By Wed afternoon, deep upper trough will stretch from Quebec into
the northeast CONUS with nw flow aloft over the Plains. This will
keep well below normal temps in place through the work week along
with dry conditions. Highs Tue-Fri look to be around 10 degrees
below average as they top out in the low to mid 80s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 632 PM CDT Sat Aug 19 2017

A few isolated hit-or-miss thunderstorms will impact portions of
south-central and southeast Kansas this evening. Suspect activity
may tend to linger a bit longer than expected as nocturnal low-
level jet increases some, with this activity possibly impacting
Wichita and Chanute. Another cluster of thunderstorms is expected
to move east across generally northern Kansas and Nebraska this
evening and overnight. This activity could impact Russell and
Salina after roughly 03-05z. Otherwise, breezy south/southwest
winds expected Sunday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    74  97  74  94 /  20  10  10  20
Hutchinson      73  97  73  93 /  10  10  10  30
Newton          73  96  73  92 /  10  10  10  30
ElDorado        73  96  73  92 /  20  10  20  20
Winfield-KWLD   75  97  74  94 /  10  10  10  20
Russell         70  98  72  93 /  30  10  20  30
Great Bend      71  97  73  92 /  20  10  20  30
Salina          72  98  74  94 /  20  10  20  40
McPherson       73  96  73  93 /  20  10  20  30
Coffeyville     74  94  73  93 /  10  10  20  20
Chanute         73  94  73  92 /  30  10  30  30
Iola            73  93  73  91 /  30  10  20  30
Parsons-KPPF    74  94  74  92 /  20  10  20  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for KSZ068>072-082-083-
091>096-098>100.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RBL
LONG TERM...RBL
AVIATION...ADK



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