Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 311050

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson KY
650 AM EDT TUE MAY 31 2016

Issued at 650 AM EDT TUE MAY 31 2016

Patchy dense fog has finally developed at a few valley locations
this morning but should mix out within an hour or two. Otherwise,
today will be quiet, sunny and warm. Forecast remains on track so
did a quick refresh to the hourly grids and sent updates to NDFD
and web servers.


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 330 AM EDT TUE MAY 31 2016

The short term period will feature quiet weather and warm
temperatures as high pressure takes hold of the region. Latest
satellite imagery shows some high level clouds pushing into the
region but for the most part skies remain clear. Clear skies
should prevail through the morning before some cu develops due to
daytime heating. Any precip that develops in the afternoon should
stay well southeast of the region.

Skies are expected to clear again Tuesday night, potentially
setting up valley fog again. Mid to upper level moisture begins
increasing Wednesday morning as return flow sets up. High pressure
shifts off to the northeast, allowing for shower chances to return by
Wednesday afternoon. These showers will likely be contained to
the higher terrain along the VA/KY border.

Temperatures will remain on the warm side with afternoon highs
peaking in the mid 80s. Morning lows will feature ridge valley
splits with valleys potentially dipping into the uppers 50s while
ridges stay in the 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 355 AM EDT TUE MAY 31 2016

The models are in good agreement aloft with the broader scale
pattern for the extended portion of the forecast, but shorter wave
details will have a large impact on the weather specifics through
the weekend. It is these details that lead to lower than normal
confidence in the sensible wx during at least the first part of the
extended. For the longwave pattern, the models all have southeast
ridging weakening in the face of a broad trough sliding east through
Texas and into the lower Mississippi Valley for the weekend. The
northern stream contributes to the end of the southeast ridge with a
decent trough dropping into the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes on
Saturday in fairly good model agreement. This trough will settle
deeper into the Ohio Valley Sunday into Monday with the ECMWF
shallower and more progressive than the GFS, at this time. Will
favor a general blend through the bulk of the extended, but also
give a nod toward the latest 00z ECMWF solution for the SFC pattern
into the weekend when the models are most different across our area.

Sensible weather will feature moisture return and an approaching
front returning PoPs to the forecast for Thursday with the best
chances that afternoon and into the night. Any storms could be
strong on Thursday given the instability so will continue the
mention of a gusty wind threat in the HWO. Friday is where the
model frontal differences come into play with the GFS taking its
boundary south through East Kentucky by afternoon while the ECMWF
is, for at least the second run in a row, lingering its front
through the CWA, or just to the northwest into Saturday. It actually
doesn`t push its front to the south of eastern Kentucky until midday
Sunday with upper support from the trough moving into the Great
Lakes. Meanwhile, the GFS allows a wave to takes its front back into
the area on Saturday before clearing out in tandem with the ECMWF on
Sunday. So, the issue is how much of a lull will we see in
convective activity from Friday afternoon through Saturday
afternoon. Currently am playing a little break, but confidence in
that is low given the disagreement from the ECMWF. Regardless, with
the fairly high moisture content associated with the front and
potential for training cells will continue to highlight flood
concerns for Thursday into Friday in the HWO. The rest of the
forecast will feature a solid cool down Sunday into Monday when the
trough induced front brings a true change in air mass along with
drier conditions, into our area.

Adjusted the grids from the CR initialization mainly to tweak some
low temperatures for terrain distinctions on Thursday and Monday
mornings. Also, nudged the PoPs to a certain extent more toward the
latest ECMWF going more pessimistic with respect to the front
clearing the area.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)

Early morning valley fog should dissipate by 14z this morning then
VFR conditions will prevail throughout most of the period with
high pressure overhead. Decided to introduce MVFR fog again late
tonight. Winds will remain light and variable through the period.


.JKL Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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