Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000
FXUS63 KJKL 050818
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
418 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER MIDDLE TENNESSEE EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NE TO NEAR THE OH/WV BORDER BY MONDAY
EVENING. THE SYSTEM HAS A VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE UNDER IT ALONG
WITH WEAK INSTABILITY. THIS IS RESULTING IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WERE SPREADING NORTH INTO THE REGION DURING
SATURDAY NIGHT. PRECIPATION WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP TO THE
NORTHEAST TODAY...AND THEN EXIT TO THE EAST LATE TODAY INTO MONDAY
AS THE SYSTEM DEPARTS. THE GREATEST PRECIP IS EXPECTED IN THE
SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE JKL FORECAST AREA...WITH
THE LOWEST POP IN THE NW. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING TALL THIN
CAPE...HIGH PW/NEARLY SATURATED COLUMN...AND WEAK STEERING
CURRENTS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR EFFICIENT PRODUCTION OF RAIN. WITH
THE GROUND ALREADY WET IN MOST PLACES...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
CONTINUES IN OUR SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES UNTIL THE
THREAT OF PRECIP DIMINISHES.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 415 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

THE PERIOD BEGINS AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW EXITS THE REGION TO THE
NORTHEAST AND GETS EMBEDDED INTO A TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. EXTENDING FROM THIS TROUGH IS A SFC BOUNDARY THAT WILL
MOVE INTO THE OH VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY. HEIGHTS ARE PROGGED TO RISE
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AND INTO
NEXT WEEKEND WHICH WILL KEEP THE SFC BOUNDARY GENERALLY STALLED OUT
OVER THE OH VALLEY AND/OR EASTERN KENTUCKY AS IT SLOWLY SAGS
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH THE STRENGTH OF THE SOUTHEASTERN
RIDGE AND THE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL DURING NEXT WEEK SO HAVE STAYED
CLOSE TO THE CR SUPERBLEND WITH POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR THE PERIOD WILL BE UNSETTLED AND WET ACROSS
EASTERN KENTUCKY WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS EVERY DAY. THIS
WILL INCLUDE A THREAT FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING THROUGHOUT THE
WEEK...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT SEE REPEATED/EXCESSIVE DAYS OF RAIN.
POPS HAVE A GENERAL DIURNAL TREND FOR THE PERIOD...EVEN THOUGH
CANNOT RULE OUT SHOWERS/STORMS AT ANY TIME DUE TO THE NATURE OF THE
STALLED SFC BOUNDARY. TEMPERATURES WILL STAY JUST A BIT BELOW
NORMAL...IN THE LOW 80S FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD WITH MILD
LOWS IN THE MID 60S. BUT AS HEIGHTS RISE NEXT WEEK...TEMPS WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE EACH DAY AND MIGHT ACTUALLY TOP OUT ABOVE NORMAL
VALUES BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 326 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

CONDITIONS WERE HIGHLY VARIABLE ACROSS THE REGION AT THE START OF
THE PERIOD...RANGING FROM LIFR TO VFR. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WERE OCCURRING NEAR THE TN BORDER. WIDELY VARYING CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST OVERNIGHT...AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD
SLOWLY TO THE NE. PRECIPITATION AND SUB VFR SHOULD CONTINUE OVER
SE KY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT PRECIP SHOULD TAPER OFF IN THE
VICINITY OF KSME AND KLOZ BY LATE IN THE DAY SUNDAY WITH
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR KYZ068-069-079-080-
083>086-111-114-116.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR KYZ087-088-109-110-
112-113-115-117>120.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...JVM
AVIATION...HAL



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