Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 251759

National Weather Service Jackson KY
159 PM EDT Thu May 25 2017

Issued at 1038 AM EDT THU MAY 25 2017

Updated pops and QPF based on latest radar trends, to better
account for precip placement and movement over the next few hours.
Overall changes were not overly significant, but did reflect the
slightly quicker trend the radar was having over the current
forecast. Also made sure the near term temp, dew point, and wind
forecasts were up to date by loading in the latest observations.
All grids have been published and sent to NDFD/web. A new set of
zones was sent out to update morning wording.

UPDATE Issued at 728 AM EDT THU MAY 25 2017

WSR-88D radar is showing an area of rain slowly progressing SE
toward the region and you can see the spin of this vertically
stacked low when animated. This surface low and upper level low
will progress east today and rain will continue to spread east
across the region. Updated grids to better reflect the latest
radar trends and also updated with latest obs.


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 353 AM EDT THU MAY 25 2017

Morning surface analysis shows an area of quasi stationary low
pressure resides across SW OH as it becomes vertically stacked. A
spoke of PVA and area of surface convergence will swing across the
region today. This will bring periods of showers to much of the
region through the day. There will be some convective element, but
really start to transition to stratiform elements. Therefore, not
overall impressed with the efficiency these showers will have
through the day. However, FFGs remain low in parts of the far east
i.e. Martin/Pike counties, but still just below one inch range
for even the 1 hour. That said think this will be a longer
duration rainfall than 1 hour and not confident we will see
widespread issues in these areas given the longer duration
rainfall. Given leaned away from issuing a FFA, but will mention
the isolated issue in the HWO.

This pesky upper level low will push east through the evening into
tonight. This will pull the surface low pressure east and
subsequently the showers will taper off from west to east through
the night. Heights will be on the rise and some clearing could
lead to some minor temperatures splits by Friday morning mainly in
the western parts of the CWA. The previously mentioned height
rises will also usher in warmer 850mb temperatures by Friday
afternoon and lead to temperatures 15 to 20 degrees warmer than
today. Clouds will likely be on the decrease, but some high clouds
will remain particularly in the afternoon on Friday.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 404 AM EDT THU MAY 25 2017

Cyclonic flow will remain locked in place from the southern shores
of Hudson Bay into the Tennessee Valley from this weekend well into
next week, as upper ridging traverses the Gulf Coast into the
western Atlantic and split flow sets up across the western U.S. Net
impact for eastern Kentucky will be an unsettled pattern
characterized by periods of showers and thunderstorms along with
seasonable temperatures, beginning the weekend above normal and
falling to near or slightly below normal by mid next week.

Quasi-zonal flow Friday night will back southwesterly Saturday as an
upper low migrates into Manitoba, sending several upper impulses
downstream as far south as the Volunteer State. Isolated showers and
storms will develop Friday evening and night, with scattered storms
occurring throughout the day Saturday. These should remain rather
low-topped as height falls and deep layer shear will be weak along
with their primary forcing being driven aloft as an earlier day warm
front should be well north of eastern Kentucky by peak heating. More
widespread convection will materialize into Sunday as the upper low
moves east toward the western Great Lakes and an attendant surface
low slides across the upper Ohio Valley toward the lower Great
Lakes. An approaching cold front will serve as focus for
thunderstorm development through the day into Monday morning. Will
have to monitor progression of the boundary for flooding potential
Sunday, before a damaging wind threat likely materializes later in
the afternoon into the night. This widespread precipitation will
knock a few degrees off of temperatures when compared with readings
in the low 80s Saturday, as Sunday`s highs top out in the upper 70s.

Rain chances will diminish from west to east Monday behind the
front, with another round of storms possible Tuesday ahead of a
secondary upper wave and front. Dry conditions should return for a
portion of midweek before another round of showers looks possible
thereafter on the western edge of the slowly eastward meandering
upper low. This feature should keep temperatures in check with highs
near the mid 70s and lows in the mid 50s.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)

As an area of low pressure rotates just to our north, rain
continues across all TAF sites this afternoon. Expect this rain to
eventually come to an end first in the SW (SME and KLOZ) just
before 0Z, and then to the other TAF sites in the few hours
following. CIGS and VIS will remain borderline IFR to MVFR up
until this point. After rain clears out, CIGS will increase a
bit, though may still remain MVFR throughout the night. Latest
forecast soundings are not supporting much in the way of fog with
the thick clouds in place. Skies will slowly start to break up
into the day tomorrow, with generally SCT MVFR to low end VFR
cigs. Winds will be gusty today near the center of the low,
generally from the SW. Winds will lesson to generally less than 10
knots overnight, and then to less than 7 knots by during the day




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