Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 051448
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
948 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 947 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

UPDATED FORECAST TO REFINE BETTER POPS AND SNOW COVERAGE TO THE
MORNING HOURS. ALREADY SEEING THE BETTER RETURNS SHIFTING
EAST...AND BACK EDGE OF SNOW PUSHING TOWARDS CENTRAL KENTUCKY.
WINTER STORM WARNING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 1 PM AS
ADVERTISED...AND WILL LIKELY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE ON TIME AS THERE
SHOULD ONLY BE SOME VERY LIGHT SNOW HANGING ON IN THE EAST FOR AN
HOUR AFTER THAT. THUS...AN EXTENSION IS NOT LOOKING LIKELY AT THIS
TIME. HOWEVER...WILL RE-EVALUATE AS NEEDED AS WE HEAD TOWARDS
EARLY AFTERNOON.

ALSO ADJUSTED SKY COVER INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS IT
LOOKS LIKE SOME PRETTY GOOD CLEARING EXPECTED AS VERY DRY AIR
WORKS INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL YIELD CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHTER
WINDS FOR TONIGHT...SETTING THE STAGE FOR A FRIGID NIGHT. WITH THE
FRESH SNOW AND HIGH PRESSURE SETTING UP OVERHEAD...WE COULD
EASILY FALL BELOW ZERO IN SEVERAL AREAS...LIKELY SETTING SOME
RECORDS. FOR THIS REASON...WENT AHEAD AND ADJUSTED TEMPERATURES
DOWN A BIT MORE TONIGHT WITH AREAS AS COLD AS -8 NOW...BUT WE
COULD CERTAINLY GO LOWER THAN THAT. PLAN TO TAKE A CLOSER LOOK AT
THIS WITH THE NEW MODEL GUIDANCE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 750 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

WITH PRECIPITATION HAVING LONG CHANGED OVER TO SNOW AND OR SLEET
ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY...AND WITH FLOODING OCCURRING ACROSS A
LARGE OF PART OF THE AREA...THE FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED.
THE FORECAST WERE FRESHENED UP WITH THE LATEST OBS DATA...AND THE
ZONE FORECAST TEXT PRODUCT WAS UPDATED TO REMOVE THE FLOOD WATCH
HEADLINES. ASIDE FROM THAT NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE
FORECAST. THE WINTER STORM IS STILL IN FULL SWING ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY...WITH NUMEROUS ROUNDS OF SNOW AND SLEET STILL EXPECTED
FOR THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE MORNING. THE HIGHEST SNOWFALL TOTALS
SO FAR HAVE OCCURRED ALONG AND NORTH OF I64 AND BETWEEN THE
MOUNTAIN PARKWAY AND I64 CORRIDOR. OUR FAR EASTERN COUNTIES HAVE
BEEN EXPERIENCING QUITE A BIT OF SLEET SO FAR THIS MORNING WITH
SNOW JUST NOW BEGINNING TO TAKE OVER. A NUMBER OF COUNTIES IN THE
WARNING HAVE VERIFIED ALREADY AND IT APPEARS THAT WITH THE AMOUNT
OF SNOW AND SLEET THAT ARE STILL MOVING ACROSS THE AREA...THAT IT
WILL NOT BE LONG BEFORE MOST OR ALL OF OUR COUNTIES MEET WARNING
CRITERIA FOR SLEET AND OR SNOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 514 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

A MAJOR WINTER STORM CONTINUES TO AFFECT EASTERN KENTUCKY EARLY
THIS MORNING. A LARGE AREA OF MODERATE SNOW IS CURRENTLY MOVING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY GENERALLY EAST OF THE I75
CORRIDOR. ANOTHER BAND OF INTENSE SNOW IS ALSO REORGANIZING AND
MOVING BACK INTO OUR FAR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES. A QUICK CHECK OF
UPSTREAM RADAR LOOPS CLEARLY SHOWS MORE BANDS AND AREAS OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW MOVING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY THAT
WILL EVENTUALLY MAKE THEIR WAY INTO OUR AREA. EVEN THOUGH SNOW
TOTALS ACROSS THE AREA HAVE NOT BEEN QUITE AS HIGH TO THIS POINT
AS WE HAD PREVIOUSLY FORECAST...IT DOES APPEAR WE WILL HAVE PLENTY
OF CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE MORNING TO PICK UP WARNING CRITERIA SNOW
FALL FOR ALL OF THE AREA. THE ONE AREA WHERE THE SNOW HAS BEEN
PILING UP QUICKLY IS NORTH OF THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY. THE I64
CORRIDOR HAS SEEN A NUMBER OF LOCATIONS PICK UP 6 TO 8 INCHES OF
SNOW SINCE YESTERDAY EVENING. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT MORE
SNOW IS ON THE WAY...SO THERE COULD BE AREAS UP THERE THAT SEE
AROUND A FOOT OF SNOW BEFORE THE EVENT COMES TO AND LATE THIS
MORNING.

THE FORECAST GRIDS WERE MODIFIED TO REFLECT THE HIGHER SNOW FALL
AMOUNTS IN OUR FAR NORTH IN RELATION TO A NARROW BAND OF HEAVY
SNOW THAT MOVED THROUGH THERE OVERNIGHT. THE NEW FORECAST WILL
ALSO REFLECT HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA PER THE LATEST HRRR MODEL OUTPUT.
TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY WILL NOT RISE VERY MUCH DUE TO ALL THE
SNOW...SO HIGHS WILL LIKELY ONLY TOP OUT 20S ACROSS THE AREA. THE
SNOW SHOULD BEGIN WINDING DOWN BY MID MORNING...AND BE OUT OF
EASTERN KENTUCKY BY MID AFTERNOON.

FLOODING WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE TODAY AND TOMORROW...AS
AREA RIVERS HAVE BECOME SWOLLEN DUE TO HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THE
PAST 24 HOURS AND RUNOFF FROM SNOW MELT. NUMEROUS FLOOD WARNINGS
ARE CURRENTLY IN AFFECT ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. A NUMBER OF OUR
RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN HIGH THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 545 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

AFTER THE NEAR TERM SYSTEM DEPARTS...THE EASTERN CONUS TROUGH
SHOULD BECOME MORE BROAD WITH TIME...WHILE THE WESTERN RIDGE
REMAINS IN PLACE. THE MAIN BAND OF WESTERLIES WILL BE DISPLACED
FURTHER NORTH WITH TIME...WITH DISTURBANCES IN NW FLOW LATE IN THE
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND GENERALLY PASSING NORTH. AT THE
SFC...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES
EARLY IN THE PERIOD...BEFORE DEPARTING LATE IN THE WEEKEND. BY THE
END OF THE WEEKEND...RIDGING SHOULD BUILD OFF THE SOUTHEAST US
COAST AND ALLOW DISTURBANCE MOVING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES
AND APPALACHIANS.

AFTER A COLD MORNING WITH SOME POSSIBLE SINGLE DIGITS IN SOME OF
THE NORMAL COLD SPOTS WITH SNOW COVER EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT...THE
PATTERN SHOULD BRING MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES TO CLOSER TO
NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
DISTURBANCES PASSING TO OUR SOUTHEAST COULD BRING CHANCES FOR
LIGHT PRECIPITATION AT TIMES FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF
THE PERIOD. IF PRECIP OCCURS DURING THAT PERIOD...MOST OF...IT
NOT ALL THIS SHOULD FALL AS RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 709 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

THE TAF SITES WILL CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE WINTRY WEATHER THROUGH
LATE THIS MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL VARY FROM MVFR WHEN THE SNOW IS
NOT SO INTENSE TO LIFR CONDITIONS IN HEAVY SNOW DURING THE MOST
INTENSE SNOW SHOWERS. THE SNOW SHOULD BE EXITING LOZ AND SME BY
AROUND 20Z...JKL...SYM...AND SJS BY AROUND 22Z. BROKEN CIGS ARE
THEN EXPECTED TO GIVE WAY TO SCATTERED CIGS AND VFR CONDITIONS BY
3Z TONIGHT.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR KYZ044-
050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.

&&

$$

UPDATE...KAS
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...AR


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