Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KJKL 191132
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
632 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

THE SHORT TERM PERIOD OF THE FORECAST WILL START OFF RATHER QUIET AS
WEAK RIDGE OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT REMAINS SITUATED OVER THE REGION.
LOW AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN TRAPPED BENEATH THE
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIDGE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY.
THESE CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY BREAK UP AND MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AS
ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM TAKING SHAPE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BEGINS
TO MOVE IN OUR DIRECTION. THIS NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO
BEGIN AFFECTING OUR FAR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES SOMETIME DURING THE PRE
DAWN HOURS ON SATURDAY. MOIST AIR FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA ON THE NORTHERN FRINGE OF AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT
WILL PASS BY TO OUR SOUTH. THE TREND IN THE MODEL DATA THE PAST FEW
RUNS HAS BEEN TO MOVE THIS LOW FURTHER AND FURTHER SOUTH OF OUR AREA.
THAT BEING SAID...THE NEW FORECAST WAS TRENDED IN THIS DIRECTION
BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS. THE AMOUNT OF COLD AIR
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW ON SATURDAY LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BE JUST COLD
ENOUGH AND AROUND JUST LONG ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR A MIX AND RAIN AND
SNOW. CONSIDERING THE LACK OF GOOD ICE CRYSTAL GROWTH AVAILABLE...AND
LACK OF STRONG LIFT...AND THE FACT THAT TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY BE
IDEAL FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME...LITTLE IF ANY SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. THE PRECIP SHOULD BE OUT OF EASTERN
KENTUCKY BY LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD LOOK TO BE BELOW NORMAL FOR DAY TIME
HIGHS DUE TO PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER AND COLD AIR ADVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH NORTHERLY WINDS. IN GENERAL...DAY TIME HIGHS TODAY AND SATURDAY
SHOULD MAX OUT FROM THE UPPER 30S IN OUR NORTH TO THE LOWER 40S SOUTH
OF THE HAL ROGERS PARKWAY. TONIGHTS LOW SHOULD FALL TO AROUND FOR
MOST LOCATIONS...WITH THE WARMER READINGS SOUTH OF THE HAL
ROGERS...AND A FEW MID 20S READINGS POSSIBLE NORTH OF I-64.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PORTION OF
THE FORECAST. FORTUNATELY...THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM SHOULD HOLD OFF
UNTIL LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...WITH A DRY END
EXPECTED TO THE WEEKEND. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHING NORTH ALONG THE
SPINE OF THE APPALACHIANS WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE UNSETTLED
WEATHER LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW FAR
NORTHWEST PRECIPITATION WILL EXTEND AND WHAT SOUTHEAST DOWN SLOPING
WINDS WILL PLAY ON PRECIPITATION TRYING TO SPREAD INTO EASTERN
KENTUCKY. WE MAY FIND IT DIFFICULT TO SATURATE UP ENOUGH TO ALLOW
FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. THUS...WILL STAY IN THE CHANCE
CATEGORY FOR PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM INTO MONDAY MORNING.
THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN ALL RAIN AS MILDER AIR SURGES NORTHWARD WITH
THIS SYSTEM. AS THIS WAVE DEPARTS...NOT MUCH FORCING TO SUPPORT MUCH
BY LATE IN THE DAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...A DEEP LOW
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND TRACK INTO THE GREAT
LAKES INTO TUESDAY COULD CLIP OUR AREA WITH SOME WEAK FORCING FROM
TIME TO TIME. THUS...WILL MAINTAIN SOME VERY LOW POPS (AGAIN ALL
RAIN) THROUGH THIS TIME. ITS VERY POSSIBLE THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEK ENDS UP BEING FAIRLY DRY.

OUR NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL ENTER THE PICTURE TUESDAY NIGHT AS A
SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH PHASES WITH THE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT LAKES.
THIS WILL SEND ANOTHER DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EAST ACROSS
THE REGION. MODELS ARE NOT IN GREAT AGREEMENT WITH THE EXACT TRACK
OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT AS IT STANDS NOW...MOST SOLUTIONS WOULD KEEP
PRECIPITATION MAINLY RAIN THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM IS
REALLY LACKING THE COLD AIR. COLDER AIR WILL FINALLY START TO WRAP
INTO THE SYSTEM AS IT BEGINS TO DEPART...WITH RAIN MIXING WITH SNOW
THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY ON RIDGES. BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...ENOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING SHOULD TAKE PLACE TO ALLOW FOR
MORE SNOW THAN RAIN. HOWEVER...THE COLD AIR DEPICTED IS REALLY NOT
ALL THAT COLD AND THIS FAR OUT...WE MAY SEE MODELS TRY TO MODERATE
THIS COLD AIR A BIT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ALL IN ALL...NOT A VERY
IMPRESSIVE SNOW PRODUCING SYSTEM...BUT SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
COULD TAKE PLACE...ESPECIALLY IN UPSLOPE FLOW AREAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO CHRISTMAS MORNING. SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD BE WINDING DOWN ON
CHRISTMAS DAY AS RIDGING SPREADS EAST INTO THE REGION. WHILE ANOTHER
STORM SYSTEM COULD APPROACH BY LATE FRIDAY...LATEST ECMWF SOLUTION
IS ALREADY SHOWING SIGNS OF A SLOWER SYSTEM...SO IT LOOKS LIKE THIS
WOULD SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL SATURDAY OR SUNDAY. FOR WHAT ITS
WORTH...THIS ONE LOOKS LIKE IT MAY BE PRIMARILY RAIN YET AGAIN...BUT
THIS FAR OUT...THIS COULD CLEARLY CHANGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 632 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

LOW AND MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO BLANKET THE AREA
THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING. LOZ...SME...AND SYM WILL EXPERIENCE VFR
CONDITIONS WITH BROKEN TO OVERCAST CIGS BETWEEN 5 AND 7K. JKL AND
SJS...HOWEVER...WILL BE EXCEPTIONS TO THIS RULE. THESE TWO TAF SITES
WILL SEE PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS OF AROUND 1.5K THROUGHOUT THE MORNING.
SJS...IN FACT...HAS BEEN REPORTING CIGS OF 1.6K FOR THE PAST FEW
HOURS WITH NO SIGNS OF THIS CHANGING ANY TIME SOON. THE CLOUDS WILL
FINALLY BREAK UP AN BIT LATER TODAY...GIVING WAY TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES FOR SEVERAL HOURS THIS AFTERNOON. THE CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY
THICKEN AND LOWER AGAIN AFTER 3Z TONIGHT...AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVES BY TO OUR SOUTH. THIS SYSTEM MAY BRING SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS TO LOZ AND SME AFTER 6Z TONIGHT WITH MVFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...AR






USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.