Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 162055
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
355 PM EST Tue Jan 16 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 355 PM EST TUE JAN 16 2018

A positively tilted trough is currently aligned from eastern
Canada down to northern Mexico. This feature is slowly working its
way east. A lingering upper level jet, lending sustained deeper
lift, has brought widespread moderate to heavy snow to eastern
Kentucky through the day. So far, totals have ranged from about an
inch across our far southeast, with 2 to 5 inches elsewhere. The
back edge of the snow is moving through the I-64 corridor, and
this will gradually work off to the southeast through this
evening.

Some partial clearing may work in temporarily tonight, before the
trough axis moves in, allowing for a return of clouds and a few
snow showers. Temperatures will drop into the single digits for
lows. On Wednesday, isolated snow showers and flurries will
diminish generally from west to east through the day, with highs
only at around 20.

The center of a surface high pressure will build in closer to us
Wednesday night, especially in the southern portion of our area.
This will allow for a cold night, with temperatures likely
dropping down to near zero or lower in places, given the lingering
snow pack and clearing skies.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 355 PM EST TUE JAN 16 2018

The overall pattern for the long term shows a distinct separation
between the northern stream over the Great Lakes and the southern
stream over the Mississippi Valley. This will lead to more zonal
flow evolving to ridging for eastern KY through the weekend before a
disturbance moves through early next week. The models seem to be
in decently good agreement with the overall pattern, but differ in
timing and intensity of the cold front next Monday. The ECMWF
shows a slightly faster and more intense band of precip as
compared with the GFS. Therefore, the uncertainty for precip
totals and timing into the CWA is high.

Looking closer to the surface, high pressure will set up to the
SW of eastern KY for the beginning of the extended period. The
high will gradually shift to the east and be to our SE by the
weekend. This will bring in SW to S winds, and this combined with
minimal cloud cover, will increase the potential for ridge/valley
temperature splits Thursday and Friday night. This also means WAA
into the region over the weekend leading to warmer high temps in
the 50s and 60s. With such high temps, the precip brought in by
the cold front Monday will likely be rain showers. The passage of
the cold front will usher in cooler temps, with precip possibly
ending as a mix of rain/snow on the higher elevations.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 133 PM EST TUE JAN 16 2018

Light snow and IFR conditions will gradually improve from
northwest to southeast through this evening. Expect MVFR
ceilings to remain in place through the rest of the period, with
intermittent flurries/isolated snow showers continuing across
the area. Northwest winds of 5 to 10 kts will continue through
the period as well.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for KYZ044-
050>052-059-060-080-084>087-104-106>117-119.

Winter Storm Warning until 7 PM EST this evening for KYZ058-068-
069-079-083.

Winter Weather Advisory until midnight EST tonight for KYZ088-
118-120.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...CGAL
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN



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