Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 281824
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
224 PM EDT Tue Mar 28 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 215 PM EDT TUE MAR 28 2017

Hourly grids have been adjusted based on recent observations and
trends. Some light rain or drizzle continues across portions of
the area especially from Menifee County southeast toward Pike
County with some upslope flow on the backside of a departing low
pressure system. Some breaks or thin spots in the clouds have
allow many locations to reach the low to mid 60s. Overall, no
significant changes were needed compared to the previous
forecast.


UPDATE Issued at 1120 AM EDT TUE MAR 28 2017

Upslope flow with low level moisture lingering behind a surface
low and shortwave moving into the mid Atlantic states is leading
to bands of light rain and drizzle across East KY. Short term
models indicates that light rain or drizzle should continue off an
on through evening. The persistent low clouds should lead to lower
max T than the previous forecast. Hourly temperatures as well as
max temperatures have been adjusted accordingly with hourly pops
adjusted for radar and the latest trends.

UPDATE Issued at 740 AM EDT TUE MAR 28 2017

Issued another quick update to touch up the PoP and Wx grids
through the first part of the morning and also to hit the latest
obs and trends. These have been sent to the NDFD and web servers.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 410 AM EDT TUE MAR 28 2017

07z sfc analysis shows a low pressure moving through the Ohio
Valley. This brought strong to severe thunderstorms to the area
during the evening hours. Now the bulk of these initial showers
and storms have moved off to the east while a few lighter ones
trail back toward the system`s cold front now pressing through
western Kentucky. Conditions remain quite mild overnight as the
moist environment, south to southwest breezes, and overcast
conditions are supporting temperatures in the mid 50s - or just a
degree or two higher than the dewpoints. Patchy fog is also noted
in the wake of the more steady rainfall that cleared out earlier.

The models are in good agreement aloft through the short term
portion of the forecast. They all depict a trough passing through
Kentucky this morning as it moves off to the East Coast by
evening. This will be followed by rising heights and broad ridging
through the mid part of the country tonight into Wednesday.
Meanwhile, the next in a series of deep troughs will be moving
through the Four Corners region. This trough will break northeast
toward the High Plains on Wednesday with the timing and
placement similar among the models - though the GFS is coming in
weaker than the ECMWF at 00z Thursday. Downstream, this trough,
will help to pump up the ridge over Kentucky with energy staying
well to the north of our area.

Sensible weather for eastern Kentucky will feature a cloudy day
with near normal temperatures as the typical diurnal rise is
hampered by west to northwest winds and cold advection. Scattered
to isolated showers will be the rule today with a diminishing
trend by afternoon as support moves off to the east. Plenty of low
level moisture will keep skies mostly cloudy into tonight
limiting terrain distinctions and supporting just some patchy
valley fog towards Wednesday morning. Wednesday will be a bit
warmer of a day - helped by a late day return of southeast winds
and also some sunshine - though a nearby front and lower
thicknesses will keep a lid on this warmth.

Used the ShortBlend and CONSShort as a starting point for the
grids with some minor, spot adjustments made to temperatures
tonight. As for PoPs, have tamped them down faster than the
guidance today with low QPF and afternoon drying expected.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 324 AM EDT TUE MAR 28 2017

Mild conditions will return early in the period ahead of another
shortwave trough that will push into the region on Thursday. This
will send afternoon highs on Thursday well into the 70s. Moisture
will also be on the increase with a few isolated showers or storms
possible late in the day. Better forcing will slide east Thursday
night and Friday with widespread showers. The wave will be on top
of eastern Kentucky on Friday and will yield some instability
leading to a small chance for a few storms. The whole system will
exit Friday night with rain showers exiting the area. Most of the
weekend is setting up dry as a strong surface ridge slides by just
to the north. Another wave will take aim on the area early next
week, but still some uncertainty on timing of this next wave with
models quite a bit off. Either way, active pattern will continue.
In addition, mild conditions will continue through the weekend and
into next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 210 PM EDT TUE MAR 28 2017

MVFR to VFR sailings were reported at observation and these
should continue for the first 4 to 8 hour of the period. Patchy
light rain, drizzle or showers may also affect JKL and SJS early
in the period. Despite high pressure building into the area,
subsidence from mid and upper level ridging should help keep low
level moisture and clouds in place. Bases of these low clouds
should tend to lower 0Z to 6Z with lowering to IFR in some
locations and to MVFR in others. Daytime heating by the 12Z to 18Z
period and drier air moving in should lead to improvement through
the MVFR range and into the VFR range in most locations. Some
stratus build down and or radiation fog is also possible during
the 0Z to 14Z period, but confidence was not high enough to
include attm. Winds should generally remain light through the
period.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...JP



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