Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 091527
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1027 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1027 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

WSR-88D RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME SCATTERED MODERATE TO LIGHT
SNOW MOVING EAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING. SOME OF THE
HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS WILL CAUSE QUICK REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY AND
A QUICK COATING OF SNOW. DID OPT TO INCREASE POPS IN THE AFTERNOON
GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR A BIT MORE LIFT AND DECENT LAPSE RATES.
OTHERWISE JUST SOME MINOR UPDATES TO DEAL WITH OBS AND TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN ACTIVE ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY TODAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY DUE TO A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT THAT
IS CURRENTLY SPINNING IN PLACE OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION. THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO PULL MOISTURE OFF OF
LAKE MICHIGAN DOWN THROUGH THE CENTRAL OHIO VALLEY AND EVENTUALLY
INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY TODAY AND TONIGHT. AS THIS MOIST AIR
INTERACTS WITH OUR ROUGH TERRAIN...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE VIRGINIA
BORDER...SNOW SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AND INTENSE. THE
PRIMARY CONCERNS WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SHORT BUT INTENSE
BURSTS OF SNOW THAT WILL QUICKLY REDUCE VISIBILITY TO NEAR ZERO
AND SLICK SNOW COVERED ROADS. HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS WILL
EXIST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE WEDNESDAY MORNING COMMUTE.
BECAUSE OF THIS...WE DECIDED TO EXTEND THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
FOR OUR WESTERN TIER OF COUNTIES THROUGH 10 AM ON WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT MAKE IT OUT OF THE 20S TODAY FOR ALL BUT A
FEW LOCATIONS...AND WILL BE HARD PRESSED TO CLIMB INTO THE MID 20S
ON WEDNESDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE TEENS
ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

ENTRENCHED CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS EASTERN NORTH AMERICA WILL PERSIST
FROM MIDWEEK INTO THIS WEEKEND THANKS TO RENEWED SPOUTS OF ARCTIC
AIR SPILLING THROUGH HUDSON BAY INTO ONTARIO AND QUEBEC. NEGATIVE
PHASE OF THE ARCTIC OSCILLATION WILL ALLOW FOR THESE MULTIPLE COLD
INTRUSIONS TO MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY AND INTO EASTERN
KENTUCKY...KEEPING TEMPERATURES BELOW AVERAGE UNTIL PERHAPS EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

ISOLATED/SCATTERED UPSLOPE-INDUCED SNOW SHOWERS WILL END FROM WEST
TO EAST WEDNESDAY EVENING IN WAKE OF A DEPARTING TROUGH AXIS AS
SURFACE RIDGING BUILDS EASTWARD AND INTO THE REGION. NWP CONTINUING
TO HINT AT A WEAK LAGGING BAND OF LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES BEHIND THIS
FEATURE WEDNESDAY EVENING/NIGHT...BUT SHOULD SEE ANY DEVELOPMENT
REMAIN NEAR AND WEST OF THE INTERSTATE 71 CORRIDOR IF THIS SHALLOW
LIFT IS EVEN ENOUGH TO GENERATE ANY SEMBLANCE OF SNOW ALONG A
COLD FRONT.

AFTER TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 30S FRIDAY AS A PORTION OF THE COLD
DOME DISLODGES EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS...ANOTHER ARCTIC SURGE
REMAINS ON TAP FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THUS LEADING TO HIGH TEMPERATURES
BACK IN THE 20S SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY SINGLE DIGIT LOWS SUNDAY
MORNING UNDERNEATH CLEARING SKIES. THE PARENT TROUGH OF THIS SYSTEM
WILL BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF SNOW FOR MUCH OF EAST KENTUCKY LATER
FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY...POSSIBLY MIXING WITH A LITTLE RAIN
NEARER THE TENNESSEE BORDER PENDING ON HOW MUCH COLD AIR CAN BE
SHUNTED EAST FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

SHORTWAVE RIDGING SHOULD THEN SPELL A DRY SECOND HALF OF SATURDAY
AND MOST OF SUNDAY...BEFORE A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. PRECIPITATION WILL
BEGIN AS SNOW WITH A TRANSITION TO LIQUID ONCE AGAIN DEPENDENT ON
HOW QUICKLY ANY WARMER AIR CAN FILTER NORTH. ACTIVE NORTHERN STREAM
SHOWS HINTS OF CONTINUING BEYOND THIS WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES
LINGERING TOWARD MIDWEEK. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR REGENERATION OF
HUDSON BAY LOW REGARDING TEMPERATURE MODIFICATION THROUGH THE
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 635 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY TODAY AND TONIGHT. SOME OF THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE QUITE
INTENSE AND COULD PRODUCE MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES. LOW
CIGS AND BLOWING SNOW WILL BE THE HAZARDS OF NOTE AT THE TAF SITES
TODAY AND TONIGHT.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR KYZ044-
050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DJ
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...GUSEMAN
AVIATION...AR


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