Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 311925
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
325 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

THERE ARE TWO UPPER LEVEL VORTS IN THE VICINITY OF KY THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT ONE OF THEM WILL SLIDE OFF TO THE NE OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT AS THE OTHER MEANDERS TO THE WEST. THE VORT THAT MEANDERS TO
THE WEST WILL COME BACK TO THE EAST ACROSS NORTHERN KY ON
WEDNESDAY. THERE ARE SOME SLIGHT MODEL DIFFERENCES IN HOW THIS
FEATURE IS HANDLED GIVEN THE WEAK FLOW THAT ITS EMBEDDED IN...BUT
THE MODELS AT LEAST ALL AGREE ON KEEPING TUESDAY DRY.

MEANWHILE...AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE
SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR THE SHORT TERM. OTHER THAN A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON...DO NOT EXPECT ANY RAIN UNTIL POSSIBLY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LEVEL VORT MOVES BY THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S TUESDAY...WITH A
DECENT RIDGE/VALLEY SPLIT IN THE 60 DEGREE RANGE ANTICIPATED BOTH
NIGHTS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE OUR REGION
WITH MAINLY DRY AND VERY WARM CONDITIONS EARLY IN THE PERIOD. THE
WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE WHICH IS TODAY SPAWNING STORMS OVER
SOUTHERN OHIO WILL MEANDER VERY SLOWLY TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH
TIME AND THIS MAY SPAWN AN ISOLATED SHOWER/STORM OVER OUR FAR EAST
AND SOUTHEAST COUNTIES BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE
DISTURBANCE IS THEN PROGGED TO MERGE WITH A PIECE OF A WESTERN
ATLANTIC TROUGH AND MEANDER ABOUT OVER THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS...CAROLINAS OR DEEP SOUTH...DEPENDING ON YOUR MODEL
OF CHOICE...THROUGH THE LONG LABOR DAY WEEKEND. THIS WILL INCREASE
THE THREAT FOR A SHOWER OR STORM ACROSS THE AREA AS WE HEAD INTO
THE WEEKEND BUT WILL KEEP POPS LOW AS FORECAST MODELS HAVE NOT
BEEN CONSISTENTLY HANDLING THE WEAK FEATURES EMBEDDED IN THE MORE
DOMINANT RIDGE VERY WELL. THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER MAY ALSO
TEMPER THE HEAT SOME...BUT TEMPS SHOULD STILL RUN WELL INTO THE
80S EACH DAY THROUGH LABOR DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 145 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

SCATTERED CU AROUND 4-5KT FEET HAS DEVELOPED AREA-WIDE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A FEW SHOWERS POPPING UP ON RADAR. THESE SHOWERS
SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED IN NATURE SO HAVE KEPT THEM OUT OF THE TAF
SITES WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING. CLOUDS
AND ANY REMAINING SHOWERS SHOULD DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET. WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA TONIGHT...FOG DEVELOPMENT WILL BE
EXTENSIVE TOWARDS DAWN SO HAVE PUT IN IFR AND BELOW CONDITIONS AT
THE TAF SITES BETWEEN 8Z AND 13Z. FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 14Z
ALLOWING FOR A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JVM
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...JVM


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