Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 280529
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
129 AM EDT Wed Jun 28 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 128 AM EDT WED JUN 28 2017

The forecast is on track so far tonight. Mostly clear skies, light
winds, and unseasonably cool temperatures are still on tap for the
rest of tonight into into early Wednesday morning. The dry and
pleasant weather will continue through Thursday morning.

UPDATE Issued at 1044 PM EDT TUE JUN 27 2017

Made a few adjustments to the temperatures based on the current
trends in observations. Some of the cooler valleys in the east are
on pace to achieve upper 40s, and lowered a few sites a degree or
so based on the rate of drop. Also included a bit more of a
ridge/valley split as the high pressure center gradually moves
east into West Virginia/Virginia by dawn. Updates have been sent.

UPDATE Issued at 708 PM EDT TUE JUN 27 2017

Scattered cumulus from earlier this afternoon is dissipating
quickly. Have freshened up the hourly temperatures and dew points
into this evening. Will reassess the lows a bit later this
evening, but at first glance, the current temperatures look very
reasonable.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 256 PM EDT TUE JUN 27 2017

Surface high pressure will move across our area tonight and then
off to our east tomorrow. Afternoon cu field will diminish by
around sunset leaving clear skies and calm winds overnight. These
nearly perfect radiational cooling conditions will enable temps to
plummet into the upper 40s to low 50s. Another beautiful day is
in store for tomorrow with sunshine and low humidity helping boost
temps back into the lower 80s. Wednesday night should again be
relatively clear but southerly flow will begin to engage in
response to an approaching weather system to our west. This will
result in a wider temperature range across the area, with temps
varying from the mid 50s in our deeper eastern valleys to the low
to mid 60s elsewhere.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 406 PM EDT TUE JUN 27 2017

Multiple shortwaves are expected to move across the region
through the remainder of the workweek. By Friday afternoon, a
upper level low will begin pushing southeast into the Dakotas, the
shift eastward across the Upper Great Lakes during the day
Saturday, before pushing back northeast into Canada again. This
will result in lowering heights across Kentucky through the
weekend. By Monday, zonal flow will return, however several more
shortwaves are expected to pass through and into the state.

As for sensible weather, strong S to SW flow will be in place to
start out the period, continuing into the weekend. This will allow
for warm and moist air to flow in from the Gulf of Mexico,
increasing temperatures back to normal values but also increasing
the humidity levels as well. This airmass will interact with the
passing shortwaves to create shower and thunderstorm chances both
Thursday and Friday. By Saturday, a cold front will begin
approaching the region from the west. This cold front will be
associated with a low pressure system passing across the Upper
Great Lakes in conjunction with the upper level low. The front is
expected to stall out just along the Ohio River during the day
Saturday, increasing the instability and resulting in more
widespread showers and thunderstorms across eastern Kentucky.

The front is then expected to remain in place throughout the rest
of the forecast period as it becomes elongated more west to east
and loses considerable strength. However, there will still be
enough lift present to keep shower and thunderstorm chances in
from Sunday on. Since the cold front never actually pushes through
the region by the end of the period, we will remain in the warm
sector, with mid and upper 80s expected for high temperatures each
day.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
ISSUED AT 128 AM EDT WED JUN 28 2017

VFR conditions will prevail through out the period at all five TAF
sites. Mostly clear skies, light winds, and dry conditions will be
on tap. Valley fog is still likely, especially near bodies of
water and in our deepest and most sheltered valleys. The fog
should remain suppressed enough to not affect any of the TAF
sites.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AR
SHORT TERM...ABE
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...AR


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