Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 282001
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
401 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 359 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY FEATURE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA SLOWLY SHIFTING OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST
AS THEY DEVELOP. THE MAIN CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON BEING THE HEAVY
RAINFALL POTENTIAL WITH PWATS IN THE 1.8 TO 2.2 RANGE AND PLENTY
OF INSTABILITY. THIS HAS BEEN OCCURRING WITH A WEAK DISTURBANCE
OVERHEAD WITH A FADED SURFACE BOUNDARY STRETCHING ACROSS THE AREA.
DUE TO THE SATURATED AIRMASS IN PLACE AND INSTABILITY IN
PLACE...WILL GO WITH CHANCE POPS WELL INTO THE EVENING TONIGHT AS
PERSISTENCE WOULD ALSO SUGGEST THIS. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE
MENTION OF HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE IN THE HWO. THIS HAS ALSO
TEMPERED THE HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON.

HEADING INTO TONIGHT...LINGERING CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST PART OF TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY WITH THIS
SATURATED AIRMASS IN PLACE. WITH THIS INSTABILITY WILL BE SLOW TO
WANE ALONG WITH PWATS STILL IN THE 2 INCH RANGE. A BRIEF BREAK IN
PRECIP AND CLOUD COVER WILL LEAD TO FOG DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT
AND WITH DEW POINTS REMAINING IN THE LOWER 70S WITH SOME MID
70S...FOG WILL BE DENSE IN SOME AREAS. MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AND REMAIN PRONOUNCED WITH A BETTER DEFINED
FEATURE ON THE WAY IN THE FORM OF A COLD FRONT. THIS WILL PROVIDE
ENOUGH LIFT FOR CONTINUED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT INTO
THE AFTERNOON ON WEDNESDAY. IN FACT...INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PWAT
VALUES JUMP BEYOND THE 2 INCH RANGE WITH MODEL PROFILES SATURATED
TO NEARLY 500MB IN MOST LOCATIONS. FOR THIS...HAVE PUT LIKELY POPS
WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SPC HAS ALSO MENTIONED
A MARGINAL WIND THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY ALONG THE FRONT BUT THE
MAIN IMPACT WILL AGAIN BE SLOW STORM MOTION WITH HEAVY RAINFALL
POSSIBLY CAUSING SOME MINOR FLOODING ISSUES.

IN ADDITION TO THE HEAVY RAINFALL...TEMPERATURES WILL REACH TO
AROUND 90 ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES REACHING
AROUND 100 POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS ADDING ANOTHER IMPACT TO BE
MINDFUL OF.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 130 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER OVER THE AREA HAS THINNED OUT FOR THE DAY AS
HEATING CONTINUES INTO THE AFTERNOON. WITH THIS VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED BUT WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STILL EXPECTED...HAVE
PUT IN VCTS BUT ANY LOCATIONS THAT DOES GET A CELL MOVE OVER WILL
SEE BRIEF IFR AND BELOW CONDITIONS. AFTER CONVECTION WANES AFTER
02Z...A BREAK IN THE ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR BEFORE FOG FORMATION
OCCURS TONIGHT. WITH THE AIR MASS IN PLACE AND THE SHOWER ACTIVITY
EARLIER IN THE DAY...FOG WILL BE DENSE IN SOME AREAS AND HAVE PUT
BELOW FIELD MIN CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES TONIGHT. SITES SHOULD
IMPROVE BY 14Z TOMORROW MORNING BEFORE CU BEGINS TO BUILD BACK IN
FOR THE DAY.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER


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