Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 011206
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
806 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 806 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

UPDATED NEAR TERM POP BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS.
OTHERWISE...JUST BLENDED OBS INTO THE FORECAST.|

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 454 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER MISSOURI WAS BRINGING WARM AIR
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT TO OUR AREA DURING THE NIGHT AS A
DIFFUSE WARM FRONT PASSES NORTH AND EAST...WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS RESULTING. THERE HAS BEEN TRAINING OF CELLS...AND
HYDRO PROBLEMS WERE STARTING TO CROP UP. HARDEST HIT AREAS SHOULD
BE SEEING PRECIP TAPER OFF IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...AND AT
THIS POINT WILL HANDLE PROBLEMS WITH STATEMENTS/WARNINGS.

THE WARM FRONT WILL BECOME BETTER DEFINED AS IT MOVES TO OUR
NORTH AND EAST TODAY...LEAVING US IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE
WEATHER SYSTEM. THE EXISTING PRECIP SHOULD FOLLOW THE BEST
ISENTROPIC LIFT...AND SHIFT EAST OF OUR AREA THIS MORNING. THIS
WILL LEAVE A BREAK FOR AT LEAST A TIME TODAY. HEATING WILL RESULT
IN STRONG DESTABILIZATION BY THIS AFTERNOON. THE QUESTION WILL BE
WHETHER OR NOT ANY PERTURBATIONS IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BE ENOUGH
TO HELP INITIATE CONVECTION. IF CONVECTION DOES GO UP...THERE IS A
SEVERE THREAT DUE TO THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND STILL SOME
MARGINAL SHEAR LATE TODAY/THIS EVENING.

WILL LOOK FOR PRECIP TO DWINDLE TONIGHT WITH LOSS OF HEATING. THE
LOW CENTER WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS OH AND INTO PA TONIGHT...SENDING
A COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST INTO KY. IT WILL STALL AND ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE WAVE RIPPLING NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT WILL BRING A
POTENTIAL FOR MORE SHOWERS/STORMS ON MONDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE
AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 523 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

A DRASTIC PATTERN CHANGE WILL TAKE EFFECT OVER THE REGION AS WE
HEAD THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH MUCH COOLER WEATHER
ANTICIPATED HEADING THROUGH THE FIRST WEEK OF MAY. THE PERIOD WILL
START AS MOISTURE FROM A SHORTWAVE LEADS TO SOME LIGHT SHOWERS
ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. BEST POPS WILL BE IN SOUTHEASTERN
KENTUCKY...TRAILING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW
MUCH RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY LINGERS INTO TUESDAY AS MODELS KEEP IT
FAIRLY UNSETTLED THROUGH THE DAY WITH ANOTHER WEAK WAVE DROPPING
IN FROM THE NORTH. THUS...WILL MAINTAIN SOME LOW POPS THROUGH
TUESDAY. A POSSIBLE BREAK FROM SHOWERS WILL BE SEEN TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...OUR NEXT POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
DROP SOUTH LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PRODUCING ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR RAIN...ALONG WITH USHERING IN MUCH COOLER WEATHER.
TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY MAY HOLD IN THE 50S...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
INTO FRIDAY INTO THE LOW 40S. WE MAY STAY IN THE 50S YET AGAIN ON
FRIDAY...BEFORE WE START TO MODERATE HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK...AND POSSIBLY INTO THE WEEKEND AS A DEEP
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS WILL SETUP
UP SEVERAL WAVES DROPPING SOUTH ALONG WITH UPSLOPE NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL PROVIDE PLENTY OF SUPPORT FOR SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 806 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE STILL ONGOING IN SOME LOCATIONS AT
THE START OF THE PERIOD...WITH THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION NEAR THE
VA BORDER. A DIFFUSE WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH OF THE REGION WAS
RESPONSIBLE FOR THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. IT WAS RESULTING IN
A WIDE RANGE OF CONDITIONS FROM IFR TO VFR. OVERALL IMPROVEMENT IS
EXPECTED THIS MORNING AS THE PRECIPITATION TAPER OFF AND MOVES OUT
TO THE EAST. THIS SHOULD LEAVE A FAIRLY QUIET PERIOD WITH VFR
AROUND MID DAY. HOWEVER...AS HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION
OCCUR...REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE BIG QUESTION/UNCERTAINTY IS
INITIATION OF CONVECTION AND THE EXTENT OF COVERAGE. STORMS THAT
DO DEVELOP HAVE A POTENTIAL FOR HAIL AND STRONG WINDS ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE POSSIBILITY OF STORM WILL LAST INTO THE
NIGHT.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...HAL



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