Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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876
FXUS63 KJKL 060614 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
114 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 114 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

FRESHENED UP THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS THROUGH DAWN
BASED ON THE LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS. HIGH CLOUDS AND VERY
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE ALLOWED FOR A BIT OF RIDGE/VALLEY
TEMPERATURE SPLIT...WITH VALLEYS IN THE LOW TO MID 20S...WHILE
RIDGES ARE CURRENTLY REPORTING IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S. THE
COLDEST VALLEYS LOOK TO STILL MAKE IT INTO THE TEENS...BUT BASED
ON THE CURRENT RATE OF DROP AND PERSISTENT HIGH CLOUDS...DID
SCALE BACK THE COOL OFF JUST A TOUCH. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1047 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

EXTENSIVE HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO ROLL IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND
LOOK LIKE THEY MAY HOLD THROUGH THE NIGHT. UPDATED TO INCREASE THE
CLOUD COVER. DESPITE THE HIGH CLOUDS...THIS WON`T HAVE MUCH IMPACT
ON TEMPERATURES AND IN FACT VALLEYS ARE ALREADY INTO THE MID 20S
WITH RIDGES FALLING INTO THE LOW 30S. UPDATED TEMPERATURES TO
DECREASE THEM A BIT IN A FEW MORE PLACES INTO THE UPPER TEENS
BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS. THESE UPDATES HAVE BEEN SAVED AND SENT TO
THE NDFD AND WEB.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 716 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS THE AREA...BUT
REGARDLESS...VALLEYS ARE ALREADY DROPPING FAST WITH VALLEYS
ALREADY INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S. NO MAJOR CHANGES AT THIS TIME
OUTSIDE OF UPDATING THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 530 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

UPDATED THIS EVENING TO INCREASE SKIES TO PARTLY CLOUDY AREAWIDE
AS AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS HAS SPREAD ACROSS THE
AREA. BASED ON SATELLITE TRENDS...WE SHOULD SEE SKIES GO BACK TO
MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT...BUT IT MIGHT TAKE MOST OF THE EVENING
BEFORE THIS HAPPENS. GIVEN THE TEENS WE HAD LAST NIGHT FOR
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS THAT MIXED INTO THE MID TEENS
TODAY...WE SHOULD SEE SOME TEENS IN THE VALLEYS AGAIN TONIGHT.
THUS...LOWERED TEMPERATURES A BIT IN THE VALLEYS AND ON RIDGES TO
MATCH THE COLDER GUIDANCE A BIT BETTER. UPDATED FORECAST HAS BEEN
SAVED AND SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE BENIGN WEATHER AS EASTERN
KENTUCKY WILL BE UNDER CONTROL OF WEAK SFC RIDGING THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING. CURRENTLY...TEMPS HAVE WARMED INTO THE LOW 40S
WITH PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE. THERE IS SOME HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS MOVING
INTO THE AREA BUT THESE CLOUDS WILL NOT HAVE ANY EFFECT ON
TONIGHT/S LOW TEMPERATURES WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO GET INTO THE LOW
AND MID 20S. TOMORROW...AN UPPER LEVEL SOUTHERN STREAM LOW WILL
EJECT OUT OF TX AND PASS BY TO OUR SOUTH. AS THIS LOW APPROACHES
THE REGION ...WE WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER THROUGHOUT
THE DAY...THOUGH TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO GET INTO THE
UPPER 40S. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT WON/T GET AS CHILLY DUE TO
THE LINGERING CLOUDS...BUT WILL LIKELY STILL DIP INTO THE UPPER
20S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 439 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

A VERY LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE IN THE PROCESS OF DEVELOPING
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...WITH A CLOSED
LOW DEVELOPING AND DESCENDING FROM MN TO THE OHIO VALLEY BY
TUESDAY MORNING...THEN WEAKENING AND OPENING. A VERY LARGE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK JUST A BIT FURTHER
NORTH. THE SYSTEM WILL SEND A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA ON
SUNDAY NIGHT...BRINGING A PROLONGED PERIOD OF MUCH COLDER
TEMPERATURES. PRECIP WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THE FRONT IN THE FORM
OF RAIN AND SNOW...BUT ASIDE FROM HIGH TERRAIN NEAR THE VA
BORDER...IT SHOULD NOT BE COLD ENOUGH FOR ACCUMULATION WITH THE
FRONTAL PRECIP. REMAINING FRONTAL PRECIP WILL MOVE OUT TO THE
EAST ON MONDAY. AS THE UPPER LOW APPROACHES...ADDITIONAL PRECIP
SHOULD DEVELOP IN THE DEEP...MOIST...UPSLOPE...COLD AIR ADVECTION.
IT COULD BE A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW AT FIRST ON MONDAY...BUT
WOULD GO OVER TO SNOW QUICKLY LATE MONDAY OR MONDAY EVENING. IT
WILL BE PERSISTENT...ESPECIALLY IN OUR NE COUNTIES. LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY BEFORE WINDING DOWN BY TUESDAY NIGHT OR
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THERE IS STILL NOT GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT LATE IN
THE WEEK...ESPECIALLY FOR TEMPERATURES. A MODEL BLEND WAS
USED...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 114 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD AS
HIGH PRESSURE MAINTAINS CONTROL AT THE SURFACE. MAINLY SOME
PASSING HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE SEEN THROUGH SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH
SOME SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS IN THE 5-8K FEET AGL RANGE WILL
MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LIGHT SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PEAK BETWEEN 5 AND 7 KTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...JVM
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN



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