Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 171720

National Weather Service Jackson KY
120 PM EDT Mon Oct 17 2016

Issued at 120 PM EDT MON OCT 17 2016

We are nearing 80 degrees in many spots as of 1 pm, with within
about 3 to 4 degrees of records at Jackson and London. With a few
more hours of heating, those records are still on track to go down
today. Again, no changes need early this afternoon.

UPDATE Issued at 1108 AM EDT MON OCT 17 2016

Temperatures are about 1 to 2 degrees ahead of where they were
yesterday and based on these trends, had to trim a bit off the
forecast highs for today as it looks like we should reside just a
few degrees above what we saw yesterday. This still put us up into
the lower 80s, leading to a very pleasant fall day. Also, updated
to remove morning fog from the forecast. No other changes planned.

UPDATE Issued at 740 AM EDT MON OCT 17 2016

Updated the grids to tweak them toward the latest obs and trends.
These have been sent to the NDFD and web servers.


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 320 AM EDT MON OCT 17 2016

06z sfc analysis shows high pressure off to the southeast of
Kentucky with broad low pressure to the northwest. Between these
systems, southwest flow continues to support a mild air mass over
the state along with above normal dewpoints, for this time of
year. Despite the dewpoints running in the middle 50s for most
places, mostly clear skies and light south/southwest winds have
set up another ridge to valley temperature split through eastern
Kentucky this night. Thanks to good radiational cooling going on
in the valleys readings have fallen into the low to mid 50s there
while ridges and more open areas are holding in the lower to
middle 60s. Do anticipate fog in the deeper valleys and along the
rivers through dawn.

The models are in good agreement aloft through the short term.
They all depict ridging building east and northeast from the
western Gulf Coast. This will bring rising heights to eastern
Kentucky through Tuesday while the faster mid level flow remains
just to the north of the area and keep the bulk of the energy
bypassing the JKL CWA. Given the good model agreement have
favored a general blend of the near term higher resolution data as
well as a healthy dose of persistence.

Sensible weather will feature an extension of the warm and dry
weather we have seen since the end of last week. The high off to
the southeast will support near record high temperatures today and
Tuesday with low to mid 80s expected. Mostly sunny skies and good
mixing will lead to a few higher afternoon wind gusts, but for
most places winds will be around 10 mph from the southwest today
and between 10 and 15 mph on Tuesday - also supporting well above
normal temperatures. For tonight, anticipate a similar situation
as the past couple of nights with a moderate ridge to valley
temperature split and river valley fog developing during the early
morning hours - dissipating shortly after sunrise.

Used the CONSShort and ShortBlend models as the starting point for
most weather elements. Did make some adjustments, particularly
for temps to hit warmer daytime highs and better define the
ridge/valley differences at night. PoPs were again near zero and
kept that way through Tuesday.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 400 AM EDT MON OCT 17 2016

Models are starting to converge on a solution with the cold front
passage towards the end of the week, so forecast confidence is
increasing for the late week period.  Strong ridging will reside
over the area through Wednesday, keeping the mild and dry conditions
in place and providing 2 more days of potential record highs.  It
looks now that a cold front will move through Kentucky late
Wednesday night through Thursday evening with a good chance of rain
for the area.  Any rainfall would be very beneficial and models seem
in reasonable agreement on producing a quarter to a half inch of
rainfall with the frontal passage.  It now looks like the front will
be on the way out on Friday with dry conditions returning for the
weekend.  In fact, a shortwave ridge will move overhead on Saturday
and could spell a pleasant fall weekend.  The mornings could be a
bit chilly, with lows possibly dipping into the 30s.  Not out of the
question we could see some frost at some point next weekend, but
models have been a bit inconsistent on temperatures, so will hold
off on mentioning any frost for now.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)

VFR conditions are expected to continue at the TAF sites through
Tuesday. Gusty southwest winds will continue through the afternoon
before subsiding early this evening. Gusty southwest winds will
develop again late Tuesday morning.




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