Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 220545 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
145 AM EDT Thu Sep 22 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 130 AM EDT THU SEP 22 2016

Touched up the grids through the rest of the night mainly to fine
tune the temperature forecast - capturing the ridge and valley
distinctions through dawn. Also tweaked the fog and Wx grids per
the anticipation of some valley fog toward dawn becoming locally
dense - similar to yesterday morning in this persistence
environment. These updates have been sent to the NDFD and web
servers.

UPDATE Issued at 1029 PM EDT WED SEP 21 2016

The valleys have dropped off into the low to mid 60s as of 10 pm.
These values are similar compared to last night at that time. The
forecast is on track, so mainly adjusted the diurnal drop off over
the next few hours to incorporate the latest trends in
observations. Updates have been sent.

UPDATE Issued at 740 PM EDT WED SEP 21 2016

The surface high pressure center is a bit further east into New
England than it was 24 hours ago. Dry air mixed down late this
afternoon, and despite highs in the mid to upper 80s across
eastern Kentucky, think that valley minimum temperatures will
still mainly be below the 60 degree mark once again, especially
since fog will form later and likely be more restricted to the
river valleys. Updates have been sent.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 303 PM EDT WED SEP 21 2016

Ridging at the surface and aloft will continue to control the
weather across eastern Kentucky, with very warm sunny days and
mild nights. As has been the case recently, we do expect some
locally dense fog in the river valleys the next two nights,
especially in the far east and southeast part of the forecast
area.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 303 PM EDT WED SEP 21 2016

An upper level ridge of high pressure will dominate our weather
through the weekend. Models indicate a backdoor cold front will drop
into the Ohio Valley late in the weekend, but this stays north of
our area. In fact, weak high pressure in place at the surface will
provide for plenty of sunshine throughout the weekend. Temperatures
will remain well above normal each day through Sunday, and we bumped
up highs each day a few degrees above the Super Blend guidance with
dry ground, relatively low humidity and lots of sunshine each day.
Low humidity will allow overnight lows to fall back into the low 60s
for most locations each night.

Beyond Sunday, forecaster confidence decreases quite a bit as models
indicate the development of a blocking pattern and continue to show
quite a bit of timing differences with the passage of a cold front.
If the 21/12Z ECMWF were to pan out, we wouldn`t see any rain until
Wednesday. However, the 21/12Z GFS solution would bring a prolonged
rain event from Monday night through at least Wednesday. With such
differences in the models, the Super Blend offered a great
compromise, offering low PoPs Monday night through Wednesday with
decreasing temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
ISSUED AT 145 AM EDT THU SEP 22 2016

High pressure centered across New England will provide for VFR
conditions across eastern Kentucky. However, IFR, or worse, fog
will likely form once again overnight setting in along the river
valleys from 07 to 13Z, but not expand too far from these
locations. As such, will not include any visibility restrictions
at the TAF sites. Winds will continue to average 5 kts or less,
mainly out of the east and northeast, through the period.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...SBH
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...GREIF



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