Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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565
FXUS63 KJKL 042059
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
359 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016

THE LOW STRATUS DECK CONTINUES TO SLOWLY ERODE THIS AFTERNOON FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION.
THE BACK EDGE OF THIS CLOUD DECK IS CURRENTLY MAKING ITS WAY
THROUGH CENTRAL KENTUCKY...AND SHOULD PUSH THROUGH THE AREA
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. AS THIS GRADUAL CLEARING TAKES
PLACE TONIGHT...THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF RADIATIONAL COOLING
ALLOWING FOR TEMPS TO DIP INTO THE LOW 20S. TEMPERATURES WILL
REBOUND ON FRIDAY TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES WITH PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE
AND HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. FRIDAY NIGHT...TEMPS WILL ONCE AGAIN
DIP INTO THE LOW 20S WITH A RIDGE/VALLEY SPLIT EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016

THIS WILL BE A PERIOD OF TRANSITION...WITH SEASONABLY MILD
TEMPERATURES GIVING WAY TO READINGS MUCH BELOW NORMAL. AN UPPER
TROUGH WILL PASS BY WHILE CLOSING OFF AN UPPER LOW TO OUR SOUTH
DURING THE WEEKEND...WITH LITTLE IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER...BUT
TRIGGERING STRONG SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT OFFSHORE. OUR IMPACT
WILL COME FROM A TROUGH DESCENDING SOUTHEAST OUT OF CANADA AND
BECOMING HIGHLY AMPLIFIED OVER THE EASTERN CONUS EARLY IN THE NEW
WEEK. ACCOMPANYING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY TRACK ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES...SENDING A COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST THROUGH OUR LOCAL
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. A DEEP MOIST LAYER UNDER THE UPPER LOW AND
PERSISTENT UPSLOPE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL FAVOR A PROLONGED PERIOD
OF LIGHT PRECIP AT TIMES. THERE COULD BE SOME RAIN EARLY ON AS THE
AIR MASS TRANSITIONS...BUT FROM LATE MONDAY ON...IT SHOULD BE
MAINLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW. MOST AREAS WILL PROBABLY SEE
ACCUMULATION AT SOME POINT...BUT IT IS LIKELY TO BE OF THE
NUISANCE VARIETY. THE BEST CHANCE AT MORE SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS IN THE SOUTHEAST PART
OF THE STATE.

DIFFERENCES IN MODELS START TO SHOW UP BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
THE LATEST RUN OF THE ECMWF HOLDS ONTO THE UPPER TROUGH MORE
STRONGLY OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WHEN COMPARED TO THE GFS...GFS
ENSEMBLE...AND THE PREVIOUS RUN OF THE ECMWF. NOT LEANING TO THE
COLDER NEW ECMWF SCENARIO AT THIS POINT...BEING THAT IT DOES NOT
HAVE MUCH OTHER SUPPORT. HAVE ONLY GIVEN IT LIGHT WEIGHTING IN THE
NEW FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM EST THU FEB 4 2016

A DECK OF LLVL STRATUS CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF KY AS OF 18Z THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH THE BACK EDGE NOW STARTING TO PUSH INTO CENTRAL KY.
EXPECT GENERALLY LOW END VFR CIGS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...WITH SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF HIGH END MVFR POSSIBLE. AS
DAYTIME HEATING CONTINUES...EXPECT MIXING TO HELP BREAK APART THE BKN
CLOUD COVER...WITH GENERALLY SCT SKIES EXPECTED BY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. EXPECT OVERALL CLEARING TO START
OCCURRING LATE TONIGHT...ACCORDING TO THE LATEST NAM 12 MODELS.
THEN...VFR CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION. THE LIGHT NW WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KNOTS SHOULD
REMAIN THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD AS WELL.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JVM
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...JVM/JMW



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