Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 250253 RRA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...DELAYED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
953 PM EST TUE FEB 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 800 PM EST TUE FEB 24 2015

A FEW CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE GRIDS THIS EVENING. FLURRIES
HAVE BEEN INSERTED INTO THE FORECAST FOR LATE TONIGHT AND INTO
EARLY ON WEDNESDAY AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE MAY BRING ENOUGH MOISTURE
TO SQUEEZE OUT A FEW FLAKES AS IT PASSES. THIS WAS ALSO IN BETTER
ALIGNMENT WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES. HOURLY GRIDS HAVE BEEN
TRENDED BASED ON RECENT OBSERVATIONS.

THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS THE NEXT SYSTEM TO TRACK TO OUR
SOUTH ON WED NIGHT INTO EARLY ON THURSDAY. IT CONTINUES TO APPEAR
THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL AFFECT LOCATIONS FURTHER TO THE NORTH THAN
THE ONE WAS LAST NIGHT AND THIS MORNING. QPF...OF UP TO TWO TENTHS
IN THE FAR SOUTH AND ANTICIPATED SNOW RATIOS NEAR 14 TO 1 OR 15
TO 1 FROM 18Z MODEL RUNS AND 21Z SREF AS WELL AS NEW 0Z NAM KEEP
AMOUNTS IN THE ADVISORY RANGE AT THIS TIME. THERE HAD BEEN SOME
CONCERN WITH SOME THE 12Z RUNS AND 15Z SREF DATA THAT POINTED
TOWARD A CHANCE OF MORE THAN 4 INCHES OF SNOW FROM WHITLEY AND
BELL COUNTIES NORTHEAST TOWARD HARLAN OR BELL COUNTIES...BUT THE
21Z SREF HAS CUT THESE BACK TO NEAR ZERO. THE MORE SOUTHERN
LOCATIONS HOWEVER...FROM BELL COUNTY NORTHEAST TO LETCHER COUNTY
AND EXTREME SOUTH OR SOUTHEASTERN PARTS OF ADJACENT COUNTIES JUST
NORTH AND WEST SHOULD GET A SOLID ADVISORY SNOW...OF 2 TO 3
INCHES. THE HIGHEST PEAKS ABOVE 3000 FEET MIGHT GET 4 INCHES OR
SLIGHTLY MORE.

LOCATIONS FROM MONTICELLO TO SOMERSET TO LONDON TO JACKSON TO
PAINTSVILLE SHOULD GET AMOUNTS AROUND 1 INCH OR NO MORE THAN 1 TO
2 INCHES. THE FAR NW COUNTIES SHOULD PICK UP LESS THAN AN INCH.
AGAIN...THESE AMOUNTS COULD GO UP OR DOWN BASED ON THE EVENTUAL
TRACK...BUT THE CURRENT CONSENSUS PRODUCES THESE NUMBERS AND THE
NEW 0Z NAM SUPPORTS THIS. AN SPS HAS BEEN ISSUED TO HIGHLIGHT
WHAT WILL LIKELY BE AN ADVISORY EVENT FOR THE SOUTHERN PART OF
OUR AREA. THIS IS ALSO HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HWO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EST TUE FEB 24 2015

WE HAVE PRETTY MUCH ONE ISSUE OF CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM AND
THAT WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR YET ANOTHER SNOW EVENT FOR LATE
TOMORROW NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THE NAM12...SREF...AND
GFS MODELS ALL HAVE SIMILAR TIMING WITH PRECIP ONSET WEDNESDAY
EVENING AND WITH THE AREAL EXTENT AND AMOUNTS OF PRECIP FOR
TOMORROW NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

AS IT STANDS...WE HAVE PRECIP ONSET BEGINNING AROUND 0Z THURSDAY
IN OUR FAR SOUTH...WITH A RAPID UPTICK IN POPS THROUGH 6Z
THURSDAY...PARTICULARLY IN OUR SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN COUNTIES.
AT THIS TIME WE ARE FORECASTING ANYWHERE FROM AROUND HALF AN INCH
OF SNOW IN OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES...UP TO AN INCH IN OUR
SOUTHWESTERN AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES...AND 1 TO 3 INCHES POTENTIALLY
IN SOME OF OUR CENTRAL AND EASTERN COUNTIES.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...THE PATTERN OF WELL BELOW NORMAL READINGS IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE...WITH LOWS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT IN THE
TEENS AND 20S...AND TOMORROWS HIGHS IN THE 30S ACROSS THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 555 PM EST TUE FEB 24 2015

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE BULK OF THE
EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THEY ALL DEPICT A FAIRLY MAJOR
PATTERN CHANGE FOLLOWING AN INITIAL SHORTWAVE THAT DIVES THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY BEFORE RETREATING NORTH.
IN ITS WAKE HEIGHTS WILL RISE OVER THE REGION AND SOUTHWEST FLOW
WILL COMMENCE AT ALL LEVELS THROUGH THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH AN
AMPLE SUPPLY OF ENERGY STREAMING FROM A FAIRLY DEEP TROUGH OVER
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THESE ENERGY CLUSTERS WILL ALSO BE ABLE TO
INTERACT WITH AN INCREASING RETURN FLOW OF GULF MOISTURE THROUGH
THE LOWER LAYERS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. SOME RIDGING WILL DEVELOP AT
THE START OF THE NEW WORK WEEK OVER THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE
NATION AS THE CALIFORNIA LOW STARTS TO COME EAST INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. WITH THE AGREEMENT HAVE FAVORED A GENERAL MODEL BLEND FOR
THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST...LEANING ON THE ECMWF FOR
DETAILS WHERE DIFFERENCES EXIST.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE THE DEPARTURE OF ANOTHER SNOW MAKER
FOR AT LEAST THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY. SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY LINGER ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...THOUGH...AS A REINFORCING COLD
FRONT SINKS THROUGH THE AREA INTO FRIDAY MORNING. ONCE AGAIN WE
WILL TRY TO WARM UP THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF A WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES TO THE EAST AND A LOW TAKES SHAPE OVER THE
SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE NATION. A WARM FRONT WILL SET UP NEAR OR
JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA BY SUNDAY MORNING WITH PLENTY OF
MOISTURE RIDING NORTHEAST ALONG AND OVER IT. FOR LOCATIONS NORTH
OF THE BOUNDARY...AT THIS POINT...INITIALLY NORTH OF THE OHIO
RIVER...THERE WILL BE A CONCERN FOR FLOODING WITH THE RAINS IN
ADDITION TO THE MELTING SNOW PACK. A NEW SFC WAVE WILL FORM OVER
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON MONDAY AND THIS SHOULD HELP DRAG
THE FRONT SOUTH INTO KENTUCKY WITH OUR AREA SEEING A BIGGER THREAT
FOR OVERRUNNING RAINS AND A FLOOD POTENTIAL TO START THE WORK
WEEK. THIS BOUNDARY WILL STAY NEARBY WITH A LIKELY INCREASING
THREAT FOR EXCESSIVE RAINS INTO THE DAY TUESDAY ALONG WITH WARMER
TEMPERATURES. SHOULD THIS PATTERN HOLD HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOKS AND
FLOOD WATCHES MAY BE IN ORDER FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY. THIS
DEVELOPING WEATHER SITUATION DEFINITELY BEARS WATCHING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 740 PM EST TUE FEB 24 2015

VFR IS ANTICIPATED FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST 6 TO 8 HOURS OF THE
PERIOD. THEN A WEAK DISTURBANCE PASSING THROUGH THE OH VALLEY
REGION WILL BRING SOME MID AND LOW CLOUDS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME FLURRIES. SOME OF THE LOW CLOUDS BETWEEN 8Z AND 16Z SHOULD BE
MVFR OR AT THE LOWER END OF THE VFR RANGE WITH SOME VIS REDUCTIONS
ANTICIPATED. FROM 15Z OR 16Z ON THESE LOW CLOUDS SHOULD
THIN...BUT THEN HIGH CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM
TO AFFECT THE AREA MAINLY AFTER THE END OF THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY FROM THE WEST OR SOUTHWEST...BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE
NORTH OR NORTHEAST11Z TO 16Z...AT LESS THAN 10 KT.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...GREIF
AVIATION...JP



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