Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY
FXUS63 KJKL 300232 AAA
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
1032 PM EDT MON AUG 29 2016
Issued at 1032 PM EDT MON AUG 29 2016
Convection has ended and skies are clearing. Freshened up the
hourly temperatures and dew points according to the latest trends
in observations. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track.
UPDATE Issued at 900 PM EDT MON AUG 29 2016
Only a few storms remain across the far southeast. This will be
diminishing in the next hour, so for now have freshened up the
downward trend in POPs through this evening. Areas of dense fog
will likely be setting in across locations that saw heavier
rainfall into the overnight hours. Lows Tuesday morning will be
similar to early this morning, generally in the mid to upper 60s.
Updates have been sent.
UPDATE Issued at 512 PM EDT MON AUG 29 2016
Convection has increased in areal coverage across the middle of
the forecast area. As such, have increased pops to match up a bit
better with radar trends. Some of the storms have been producing
gusty winds and small hail, but overall, these are not as intense
as the ones from yesterday afternoon. Storm motions are also
a little more progressive, allowing for a lower threat of
localized flooding. Expect a gradual weakening trend to the
convection towards sunset. Updates have been sent.
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 316 PM EDT MON AUG 29 2016
Isolated showers and storms will continue to form and move across
portions of eastern Kentucky this afternoon and evening. There is
just enough energy and moisture around for this convection to feed
off of. This activity is generally drifting from northeast to
southwest across the area. These showers and storms will likely
be short lived and weak and should be gone by the time the sun
begins to set. Overnight, we can expect to see mostly clear skies,
light winds, and areas of valley fog. Patchy dense fog may form
near bodies of water and in our deeper and more sheltered valleys.
A ridge of high pressure will finally take firm control of area
weather tomorrow, bringing warm and dry conditions to the eastern
Kentucky. Temperatures the next two nights should be slightly
cooler, with readings in the mid to upper 60s. Tomorrows highs
will still be quite warm, upper 80s and lower 90s, but the
humidity should be quite a bit lower, with max values in the 40s
and 50s during the afternoon, so the air should feel a bit more
pleasant tomorrow than it has over the past week or so.
.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 347 PM EDT MON AUG 29 2016
The long term period will offer a reprieve from the heat and
humidity that has plagued the area over the past few weeks. At
upper levels, a long wave trough in place over Kentucky (through
the work week) will shift east, being replaced with ridging for
Labor Day Weekend. At the surface, a weakening cold front will
drop through the region late Wednesday night into Thursday. This
late timing of the frontal passage along with limited instability
should keep precipitation to a minimum with only a slight chance
for showers or storms. A cooler and much drier air mass will then
push into the area as high pressure builds across the Great Lakes
Thursday afternoon. As a result, temperatures will fall from the
upper 80s on Wednesday into the upper 70s and low 80s behind the
front beginning Thursday and lasting through the first half of the
weekend. Humidity levels will also be lower and more comfortable.
Temperatures and humidity start moderating back towards summer-
time levels Sunday as the surface high shifts to our east and
southerly flow returns. Labor Day looks to be warm and muggy with
dew points in the mid 60s and temperatures in the upper 80s. No
precipitation is expected beyond Thursday.
.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
ISSUED AT 900 PM EDT MON AUG 29 2016
Isolated convection will end across far southeastern Kentucky in
the next hour. IFR or worse fog will likely set in across the
deeper river valleys, especially where heavier rainfall occurred.
Most of the TAF sites have avoided the more sustained
precipitation; however, am a little bit concerned at JKL, where
valley fog may raise up and cause some visibility restriction
around dawn for an hour or two. As such, have included a small
window of IFR. Once the fog burns off by the mid-morning hours
on Tuesday, expect some cumulus to form once again by the
afternoon hours. A stay shower or storm may be possible towards
peak heating, but will not include a mention for now. Winds will
average around 5 kts or less through the period.