Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 242018

National Weather Service Jackson KY
418 PM EDT Mon Jul 24 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 418 PM EDT MON JUL 24 2017

Coverage of showers/t`storms has increased this afternoon and
warrants a higher POP than was previously carried. Have used high
chance POPs with the broken line dropping south through the
forecast area. This line roughly agrees with what the mesoscale
models suggested, and have extrapolated the precip southeast
across the area and allowed it to dissipate this evening as
models depicted.

The precip was occurring near a cold front dropping south through
the area. It will bring slightly cooler and drier air southward.
However, there`s not a strong influx tonight, and it will be
difficult to scour out all of our surface air mass, especially in
valleys. With drier air arriving aloft, this will set us up for
fog. It seems a safe bet in valleys. Just how far it spreads in
breadth and depth is the bigger question. Suspect it could get
rather dense.

Fog and low clouds will dissipate on Tuesday morning. Following
this, high pressure passing by to our northeast will provide fair
weather through Tuesday night.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 418 PM EDT MON JUL 24 2017

An updated long term discussion will be issued shortly.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)

Isolated showers and t`storms were occurring over the northern
half of the forecast area at the start of the period. Outside of
the heavier precip, conditions were VFR. The precip was occurring
near a cold front. The front and the precip will slowly sink south
through the area this afternoon and evening. Precip coverage
should remain sparse enough so that nothing more than VCSH or VCTS
is warranted in the TAFs. Even though the front will drop to our
south tonight, the influx of drier air will be relatively weak.
This will make it difficult to scour out our humid air, especially
in valleys. The end result will be fog developing in valleys. The
issue is how far it spreads in breadth and depth. The current
forecast takes most of the area to IFR or lower. The places most
likely to avoid it will be on ridges and in the far north. Fog and
low clouds will eventually dry up on Tuesday morning, with VFR
expected by the end of the period.




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