Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000
FXUS63 KJKL 210738
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
338 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

AFTER THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT LAST NIGHT...MUCH OF THE
REGION SHOULD EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS INTO THE DAY TODAY UNDER
GENERALLY NW FLOW. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE FAR EAST...WHICH WILL
SEE ENOUGH WRAP AROUND MOISTURE FROM THE STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CURRENTLY SITTING JUST TO OUR NE...THAT UPSLOPE FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR
SCT SHOWER CHANCES BOTH TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE MOISTURE AND FORCING
WILL BE WEAK...SO RAIN ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT...IF NOT
INSIGNIFICANT. THE MOISTURE WILL ALSO LEAD TO CONTINUED CLOUD COVER
ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE CWA AS WELL...WITH ONLY THE FAR SW
COUNTIES EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY CLEAR TODAY AND TONIGHT. BY
TOMORROW...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TREK SLIGHTLY FARTHER
EASTWARD...JUST ENOUGH TO PULL ANY FURTHER MOISTURE POTENTIAL OUT OF
THE FAR EAST.

IN ADDITION TO THE MOISTURE PULL ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS LOW...KY
WILL ALSO FIND ITSELF UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A STRONG NORTH TO SOUTH
ORIENTED UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK...PULLING STRONG NRLY COOLER AIR
FROM CANADA. THIS JET STREAK WILL MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST FOLLOWING
THE UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE PATTERN. JKL CAN EXPECT TO FIND ITSELF
UNDER THE BEST INFLUENCE OF THIS JET STREAK OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND
INTO THE DAY TOMORROW. SO ALTHOUGH THE MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO KEEP
CLOUD COVER ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE REGION...THE STRONG PULL OF
CANADIAN AIR WILL STILL PLAY A LARGE INFLUENCE IN THE OVERNIGHT
TEMPS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT OUT OF THE UPPER
30S...ESPECIALLY IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN
HAVE A HARD TIME REBOUNDING TOMORROW. LOW TO MID 50S ARE TO BE
EXPECTED FOR HIGHS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. AS THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH CONTINUES TO SLOWLY TREK EASTWARD TOMORROW...THE LOW AND WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO MOVE OUT OF EASTERN KY...WITH
CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED TO ENSUE AS WE HEAD INTO LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

PERSISTENT TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL KEEP COOLER THAN
NORMAL CONDITIONS AROUND FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. AS THE
TROUGHING SLOWLY DEPARTS TO THE EAST...HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND
TOWARDS WEEKS END...WITH TEMPERATURES STARTING TO MODERATE. EVEN
WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL SURGE INTO THE AREA FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND AS STRONG RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.

AS FOR THE DETAILS...CLOUDS WILL LIKELY HOLD ON WELL INTO WEDNESDAY
AS NORTHERLY WINDS LOCK IN THE LOW STRATUS. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME
DRIZZLE OR SPRINKLES ON WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING...BUT
OPTING TO LEAVE IT MAINLY DRY AT THIS TIME. AS THE TROUGHING PUSHES
EAST...SKIES SHOULD CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. STILL SOME QUESTION ON HOW FAST THIS
CLEARING WILL REACH THE FAR EAST AS SOMETIMES IT CAN BE VERY
STUBBORN TO DEPART. GIVEN THE CHILLY CONDITIONS IN PLACE...IF ENOUGH
CLEARING CAN OCCUR...WE SHOULD SEE A FAIRLY GOOD OPPORTUNITY FOR A
BIT MORE FROST THAN WE HAVE SEEN THUS FAR THIS SEASON.
HOWEVER...SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES DO NOT LOOK LIKELY AT THIS
TIME.  WHATEVER CLOUD COVER CAN PERSIST INTO THURSDAY MORNING SHOULD
QUICKLY BE ON THE WAY OUT...AS DRY AIR TAKES OVER...ALLOWING FOR
SUNNY SKIES. WITH THE RIDGING VERY SLOW TO MOVE IN LATE IN THE
WEEK...MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR A FAST MOVING VORT
MAX TO PUSH SOUTH ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT. THIS FEATURE SHOULD BE WEAKENING WITH TIME...BUT GIVEN HOW
THINGS HAVE GONE LATELY...WOULD BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW RAIN
SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES PUSH ACROSS THE AREA WITH THIS WAVE. FOR
NOW...OPTING TO STICK WITH SOME SPRINKLES WITH THIS WAVE AS MOISTURE
SEEMS RATHER LIMITED. BY SATURDAY...RIDGING WILL SURGE
EAST...ALLOWING FOR A WARM AND DRY WEEKEND WITH HIGHS JUMPING BACK
ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 159 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY TRAVERSING EASTERN KY HAS LED TO A LINE OF
SHOWERS AND A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER. THESE SHOWERS ARE NOW MOVING
ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PORTION OF THE STATE...WITH VCSH STILL
POSSIBLE AT KJKL AND KSJS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THE CHALLENGE
OF THIS FORECAST WAS TO PUT TOGETHER AN IDEA OF WHAT WILL OCCUR FOR
THE REST OF THE NIGHT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
NW BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT SO FAR MUCH OF THE AREA IS CLOUD FREE. THIS
MAY ALLOW SOME MORE PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP IN PLACES...THOUGH MOST
OBSERVATIONS ARE SHOWING DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS LARGE ENOUGH TO LEAVE
OUT MENTION OF FOG AT ALL TAF SITES BUT KSME. EVEN HERE...ONLY WENT
MVFR GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY OF FOG TO OCCUR. UPSTREAM...A DECK OF
CLOUDS IS NEARING THE OHIO RIVER AND MOVING TOWARDS EASTERN KY AS A
RESULT OF WRAP AROUND MOISTURE FROM THE LOW OFF TO OUR NE. EXPECT
THE CIG HEIGHTS TO LOWER SOMEWHAT AS THEY REACH THE TAF SITES
/GENERALLY BY AROUND 12Z/...WITH MVFR TO LOW END VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. THESE CLOUDS...AS WELL AS SOME TRAPPED MOISTURE/BR...SHOULD
FINALLY LIFT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...JMW





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