Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 020405 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1205 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1205 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

LOOKS LIKE THE WEATHER HAS SETTLED DOWN AND SHOULD STAY QUIET
THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT. ACCORDINGLY...HAVE UPDATED THE
FORECAST TO LOWER POPS...ADD SOME FOG...AND ALSO TO DROP THE
FLOOD WATCH AND CLEAN UP THE HWO. THESE GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT TO
THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 813 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FEATURE SOME STORMS THAT HAVE
TRACKED OVER THE SAME AREA NORTH OF THE HAL ROGERS PARKWAY THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING. AS WELL...A OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
GENERATED FROM FROM THE CONVECTION TO THE NORTH WILL SHIFT
SOUTHEAST GENERATING MORE CONVECTION OVER AREAS THAT HAVE BEEN HIT
WITHIN THE LAST 24 HOURS. SO HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO COVER THIS AS ADDITIONAL FLOODING WITH
TRAINING STORMS IS POSSIBLE.

THERE APPEARS TO BE A BREAK IN THE CONVECTION TONIGHT BEFORE THE
NEXT WAVE SHIFTS NORTHEAST UP THE OH VALLEY WITH ANOTHER WAVE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS WILL LIKELY REQUIRE THE FLOOD
WATCH TO BE EXTENDED THROUGH TOMORROW AND INTO MONDAY EVENING.
HAVE MENTIONED ALL THIS IN THE LATEST HWO.

ADDRESSING THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH...WHILE A FEW STRONG
STORMS REMAIN...MUCH OF THE INSTABILITY HAS BEEN TAPPED.
HOWEVER...EVIDENCE OF SOME UNTAPPED INSTABILITY IN THE SOUTH MAY
BE ENOUGH FOR FURTHER CONVECTION IN THE SOUTH WITH MORE POTENTIAL
FOR A HAIL OR WIND THREAT. WILL KEEP THE WATCH GOING FOR NOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FEATURE EAST KENTUCKY IN THE
WARM SECTOR OF AN APPROACHING FRONT. SOME CLEARING CLOUD COVER
ACROSS THE AREA HAS RESULTED IN SOME INCREASED INSTABILITY WITH CU
FIELDS DEVELOPING AS WELL. WITH DECENT SHEAR IN PLACE ACROSS THE
AREA AND A PASSING DECENT WAVE OVERHEAD...STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING. AMPLE INSTABILITY AND CIN FULLY
ERODED...WILL ALLOW FOR THE SEVERE THREAT TO LAST INTO THE
EVENING. HAVE PUT THIS INTO THE HWO FOR THIS EVENING AND INTO
EARLY TONIGHT WITH HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS AS THE MAIN THREAT.

HEADING INTO TONIGHT...MUCH OF THE SEVERE THREAT WILL DIMINISH
WITH THE LOSS OF INSTABILITY TONIGHT. HOWEVER...NUMEROUS
SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WILL KEEP THE CHANCE OF THUNDER
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT. WITH A SATURATED
ATMOSPHERE...A FEW HEAVY RAINERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE AND HAVE
MENTIONED THIS IN THE HWO AS WELL.

HEADING INTO THE DAY ON MONDAY...ANOTHER WAVE DIVING FURTHER
SOUTHEAST INTO THE MID MS VALLEY WILL THEN PUSH NORTHEAST UP
THROUGH THE APPALACHIAN RANGE AS ANOTHER ROUND OF RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE
ANOTHER SATURATED SOUNDING THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY AND INTO
MONDAY NIGHT WITH PWATS AGAIN NEAR 1.4. WITH THE AMOUNT OF
RAINFALL ALREADY FALLEN THROUGH THE PAST 48 HOURS...THERE MAY BE
MORE FLOODING ISSUES AND A WATCH MAY BE NEEDED. WITH EXITING
FORCING AND GOOD INSTABILITY DIMINISHED...CONVECTION AND LARGELY
THE FLOODING THREAT SHOULD END BY MONDAY NIGHT 06Z.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

FAIRLY ACTIVE PATTERN TO BEGIN THE WEEK AND ALSO A COOL DOWN. THE
PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH SHORTWAVE RIDING INTO PORTIONS OF THE OHIO
VALLEY...SO KEPT POPS FROM SLIGHT TO CHANCE AREA WIDE. STILL LOOKS
LIKE A BREAK WILL OCCUR TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AND
COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST FOR YOUR WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING
LIKELY SHOWERS TO THE NORTH RIGHT NOW LOOKS LIKE LITTLE IF ANY
INSTABILITY SO NO THUNDER. THIS FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW
WILL LEAD TO COOLER AIR DROPPING SOUTH INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL
LEAD TO OVERNIGHT LOWS INTO THE LOWER 40S FOR SOME. GIVEN THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE EAST AND LOBES OF ENERGY RIDING ALONG THE
FAR EAST WILL KEEP CHANCE SHOWERS THURSDAY. WHILE UPPER LEVEL LOW
SLIDES EAST TOWARD THE LOWER MID ATLANTIC WILL KEEP SLIGHT SHOWERS
ACROSS THE FAR EAST...BUT WE DO SEE A REPRIEVE BY THE WEEKEND.
THIS AS A LONG WAVE RIDGE MOVES EAST OUT OF THE PLAINS AND SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST. ONCE THIS RIDGE SHIFTS
EAST IT WILL BRING WARM AIR ADVECTION BACK INTO THE REGION
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL SEND TEMPS BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S
BY SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 813 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA IS BECOMING ISOLATED AS MUCH OF THE
ACTIVITY WINDS DOWN. SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL LINGER THROUGH
THE EVENING BEFORE COMING TO AN END BY 06Z. THERE WILL BE A BREAK
IN THE ACTIVITY BEFORE THE NEXT WAVE BRINGS MORE ACTIVITY INTO THE
AREA AFTER 12Z. OTHERWISE...THE AREA BECOMING STABILIZED AND CALM
WINDS LATE TONIGHT WILL LEAD TO LOWER VIS AND CIGS LATE TONIGHT
BEFORE LIFTING AGAIN AFTER 12Z. SOME ISOLATED MVFR CONDITIONS WILL
DEVELOP AGAIN AS THE NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS MOVES NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE AREA ON MONDAY.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER


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