Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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697
FXUS63 KJKL 281332
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
932 AM EDT Wed Jun 28 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 932 AM EDT WED JUN 28 2017

Some high clouds are starting to move into the region late this
morning, however these should pose little concern throughout the
day. Otherwise forecast remains quite benign through today. Loaded
in the latest observations for temps, dew points, and winds to
make sure the near term forecast was on track with current
conditions. These updates have been published and sent to
NDFD/web. A new zone package was sent out to remove morning fog
wording.

UPDATE Issued at 701 AM EDT WED JUN 28 2017

The forecast is on track so far this morning. The latest obs were
ingested into the hourly forecast grids a couple of times to
establish new trends. Aside from that, no other changes to the
forecast were necessary.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 300 AM EDT WED JUN 28 2017

A period of dry and warmer weather is in store for the residents
of eastern Kentucky today and tomorrow, as a ridge of high
pressure settles over the region. High temperatures will return to
closer to normal values today and tomorrow, with max readings in
the low to mid 80s expected. Tonights lows will also be warmer,
with ridgetop temperatures forecast to fall into the lower 60s,
while the surrounding valleys bottom out in the upper 50s. Winds
will be generally light and variable with mostly clear skies also
on tap across the area through tomorrow morning. Clouds will be on
the increase Thursday afternoon, as an area of low pressure passes
by to the south of the area. A few showers and thunderstorms may
evening across the Tennessee border into our southwestern counties
Thursday afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 424 AM EDT WED JUN 28 2017

Moisture from the Gulf of Mexico and off the southeast coast will be
moving around the western side of surface high pressure over the
Atlantic, resulting in rising dew points in our area at the start of
the period. There should be little in the way of features on the map
locally at the start of the period, and convective precip is
expected to be mainly diurnal in nature, with very little left by
00Z on Thursday evening. Redevelopment is expected with
destabilization on Friday, but still with very limited coverage due
to lack of features.

A shortwave trough rotating around a general trough over the north
central CONUS will bring falling geopotential heights and
temporarily nudge the upper level westerlies further south,
supporting a weakening cold front to move into our area on Saturday.
This will bring the highest POP of the extended forecast period.

The upper trough lifts out to the northeast on Sunday and some
limited drying occurs as the cold front washes out with passage.
Forecast soundings suggest this will be enough to knock out
convective precip for a couple of days. However, with little change
in air mass and more sunshine, temperatures should actually climb
Sunday and Monday.

Another upper level trough moves in from the northwest on Monday
night and Tuesday, and low level moisture creeps higher. This
supports at least a mention of thunderstorms once again. However,
the highest POP will remain to our northwest.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
ISSUED AT 701 AM EDT WED JUN 28 2017

VFR conditions will prevail through out the period at all five
TAF sites. Mostly clear skies, light winds, and dry conditions
will be on tap. Valley fog is still likely early this morning,
especially near bodies of water and in our deepest and most
sheltered valleys. The fog should remain suppressed enough to not
affect any of the TAF sites. Cloud cover will be on the increase
late tonight as an area of low pressure moves by just to our
south, but VFR conditions should still prevail.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JMW
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...AR



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