Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY
FXUS63 KJKL 081725
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
1225 PM EST Thu Dec 8 2016
Issued at 952 AM EST THU DEC 8 2016
Surface analysis shows area of center of high pressure is
currently parked across the Central Plains and we are currently
stuck in between. That said we will continue to see west to
northwest CAA flow across eastern KY. Overall forecast grids are
on track and only updated with latest obs and trends.
UPDATE Issued at 743 AM EST THU DEC 8 2016
Radar returns have diminished across the area, and most of the
higher based cumulus is starting to scatter out. As such, removed
flurries from the forecast. Also freshened up the hourly
temperatures and dew points according to the latest trends in
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 312 AM EST THU DEC 8 2016
A strong surface high pressure ridge, stemming from the Arctic
center anchored across the Northwest Territories, remains nosed
in from the Continental Divide through the Plains, Midwest, and
Ohio Valley regions. Aloft, a deep trough remains poised across
the CONUS, with an upper level low moving eastward into Quebec,
with a short wave trough moving across the Midwest.
In eastern Kentucky, some light radar returns have been showing up
for the past few hours, although cloud bases remain at or above 7k
feet agl for most locations, with any flurry activity few and far
between. Current temperatures are in the low 30s, with some upper
20s invading from far northern Kentucky.
Much colder temperatures will continue to be the main story
through the short term, as the upper trough gradually shifts
east, with a secondary surface high pressure center eventually
becoming established across the mid-Mississippi Valley through
Today will feature perhaps a few flurries into the mid-morning
hours, before clouds thin out and west to northwest winds pick up
and turn a bit gusty, as the cusp of the arctic air invades. Highs
today will be in the mid 30s, with most marks established by noon.
Temperatures will then fall off through tonight, reaching the
teens to lower 20s by dawn Friday. Lower clouds, containing some
flurries at times, will also move in overnight and will linger
into Friday. Highs on Friday will range from the upper 20s to
.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 312 AM EST THU DEC 8 2016
We start the period with high pressure in control at the surface.
Any residual low clouds remaining from the day should erode pretty
quickly Friday evening but some mid and high clouds may interfere
with radiational cooling conditions across our northern counties.
Nonetheless, it will be cold with lows in the teens. Saturday will
then be cold but with some sunshine through increasing high level
cloudiness. These clouds should thicken up Saturday night but temps
will likely still drop toward 20 in our eastern valleys.
Our next weather maker is still due to begin affecting our area on
Sunday as a shortwave tracks across the Midwest and Great Lakes
region sending a surface low across the Ohio Valley to our north.
Models are a tad slower with the onset of precip with this system
when compared to last night and the bulk of any precip is now shown
to enter the scene late Sunday into Sunday night. Temps are cold
enough along and north of I-64 that it is possible a little snow may
mix in Sunday evening before warm advection kicks in and temps
actually warm overnight. The 08/00z ECMWF continues be slower in
exiting the rain on Monday and that slower trend will be found in
Confidence on forecast details tank beyond Monday. The 08/00z GFS
brings one heck of an arctic front through the area dropping temps
from the 50s Tuesday into the teens on Wednesday. The 08/00z ECMWF
is much tamer, keeping the real cold air to our north. The
SuperBlend looks like a great compromise and will be followed.
This results in a small chance of rain or snow Tuesday into
Tuesday night, and then a small chance of snow on Wednesday with
highs dropping from the 40s on Tuesday back down toward freezing
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM EST THU DEC 8 2016
Much of the lower deck from this morning has scattered out and now
we are left with mostly high clouds across eastern KY. While we
have returned to VFR this afternoon Vis Sat and Obs are showing a
area of low MVFR building SE toward the region. These clouds will
stream in through evening and overnight and some snow
showers/flurries will also be possible. We have seen winds
increase out of the west at around 7 to 10 knots this hour and
would expect that to continue through the afternoon. Gusts will
generally be around 15 to 20 knots. These winds are still expected
to reduce through the evening.