Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000
FXUS63 KJKL 301158 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
758 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 758 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

FRESHENED UP THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS TO JIVE BETTER
WITH THE LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS. OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST
REMAINS ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

THE LATEST SURFACE MAP FEATURES HIGH PRESSURE ORIENTED FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS DOWN ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. UNSEASONABLY COOL
AIR IS ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS...WITH
THE DEEPER VALLEYS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY CURRENTLY REPORTING IN THE LOW
50S. ALOFT...CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS...
STEMMING FROM A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW ROTATING NEAR HUDSON BAY.

A SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING SOUTH ALONG THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY...ALLOWING FOR A THREAT
OF A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHEASTERN KENTUCKY. WILL MAINTAIN SOME
ISOLATED POPS AS WE HEAT UP MORE AT THE SURFACE TODAY...WHILE COOLER
MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN PLACE. HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID
TO UPPER 70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

ANOTHER COOL NIGHT IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...WITH THE DEEPER VALLEYS
LIKELY DROPPING DOWN INTO THE LOW 50S ONCE AGAIN. RIDGES WILL BE A
BIT MILDER...WINDING UP IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60.

THURSDAY WILL FEATURE MILDER TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN
THE LOW 80S. A PASSING SHORT WAVE TROUGH ALONG THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
WILL THREATEN FAR SOUTHEASTERN KENTUCKY WITH SOME ISOLATED
CONVECTION...HOWEVER MOST OF THIS LOOKS TO STAY ON THE TENNESSEE
SIDE...AND WILL STICK WITH DRY WEATHER FOR NOW.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

LITTLE HAS CHANGED FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST. AMPLIFIED TROUGHING
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO BE BLOCKED ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...WITH
STRONG RIDGING SITTING OVER THE SW CONUS AND OFF THE ATLANTIC
SEABOARD. BY FRIDAY...EASTERN KY WILL FIND ITSELF ON THE LEEWARD SIDE
OF THE TROUGH...PUTTING MUCH OF THE APPALACHIAN REGION IN SW FLOW IN
THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS. THOUGH TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL...THIS FLOW OF WARMER AIR FROM THE SOUTH WILL PULL TEMPS BACK
UP SLIGHTLY FROM PREVIOUS DAYS...INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. IT WILL ALSO CAUSE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN THE
HUMIDITY LEVELS AS WELL.

AS FOR THE PRECIP CONCERNS...THE BLOCKING PATTERN WILL KEEP A COLD
FRONT NEARLY STATIONARY ALONG THE GULF AND EASTERN SEABOARD.
THIS...IN ADDITION TO THE MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE DEEP SW-TO-NE
FLOW...WILL MAKE THIS REGION PRIME FOR ONGOING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. EXPECT THESE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO BE PREDOMINATELY DIURNALLY DRIVEN...WITH ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED CONVECTION PULLING INTO KY TO SOME EXTENT EACH
DAY...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. USED THE LATEST NAM12 AND
GFS40 SOUNDINGS TO DETERMINE THE LIKELIHOOD OF THUNDER EACH DAY...AS
IS REFLECTED IN THE WX FORECAST.

THEN BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK...THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL BEGIN SINKING SOUTHWARD. THIS WILL
WORK TO INCREASE HEIGHTS ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS AND...AS A
RESULT...DAMPEN THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY ACROSS THE REGION.
ALTHOUGH A FEW DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY ALONG
THE TN AND VA BORDER...COVERAGE WILL BE QUITE ISOLATED. PRECIP
CHANCES SHOULD THEN FADE ALL TOGETHER FROM THE FORECAST BY MONDAY
NIGHT. ON THE FLIP SIDE...INCREASING HEIGHTS ALSO WILL DIRECTLY
CORRELATE TO INCREASING TEMPS. EXPECT MORE SEASONABLE MID TO UPPER
80S BY TUESDAY FOR HIGHS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 758 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

LIFR FOG WILL LIFT AND DISSIPATE THROUGH 13Z...WITH SCATTERED
STRATOCU IN THE 4 TO 6K FEET AGL RANGE DEVELOPING DURING THE DAY. ANY
ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS THIS AFTERNOON LOOKS TO STAY
NORTH OF THE TAF SITES. SOME PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN
AFTER 06Z...ALTHOUGH IT LOOKS TO BE LESS DENSE THAN THIS MORNING.
WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE WEST AND NORTHWEST THROUGH THE
PERIOD...GENERALLY AROUND 5 KTS OR LESS.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN






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