Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KJKL 282053
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
353 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

WINDS WILL SHIFT TO A MORE SRLY DIRECTION ON THE BACKSIDE OF EXITING
HIGH PRESSURE THIS EVENING...CREATING A PSEUDO WARM FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ALONG A DEVELOPING LLVL JET. OVERRUNNING PRECIP WILL
THEN DEVELOP BY THIS EVENING IN NORTHERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
KENTUCKY...INTO INDIANA AS WELL AS OHIO. THIS WILL BRING PRECIP
INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY BY OR SHORTLY AFTER 06Z TONIGHT. THERE
CONTINUES TO BE A FEW CONCERNS WITH THIS SYSTEM...NAMELY A LIGHT
ICE AND SNOW POTENTIAL.

LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE CONTINUING TO SUPPORT A STEADY OR
GRADUAL WARMING OF TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT AS SOUTHERLY WINDS...
CLOUD COVER...AND PRECIP TAKE CONTROL. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE
ANTECEDENT COLD CONDITIONS...IT IS LIKELY THAT EVEN AS SURFACE TEMPS
SLOWLY RISE...THE PAVEMENT AND GROUND TEMPS WILL TAKE AN HOUR TO 3
HOURS LONGER. TEMPERATURES IN THE LLVLS WILL RISE ABOVE FREEZING
BETWEEN 0 AND 6Z...HOWEVER...SURFACE TEMPS WILL LIKELY LAG BEHIND BY
A FEW HOURS. THIS WILL CREATE THE SET UP FOR SOME SNOW/IP POTENTIAL
JUST AT ONSET /AND CONTINUING IN THE NORTH FOR A BIT LONGER/...THEN
A FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL GIVEN THE LATEST NAM12 AND GFS40 FORECAST
SOUNDINGS THROUGH AROUND 12Z...BEFORE SURFACE TEMPS FINALLY WARM
ENOUGH ACROSS THE REGION THAT ALL PRECIP FALLS AS RAIN AFTER 12Z TO
15Z. GIVEN THE WARMER SRLY FLOW TOMORROW...TEMPS WILL FINALLY
INCREASE TO CLOSER TO SEASONABLE NORMAL VALUES DURING THE
AFTERNOON...GENERALLY IN THE 40S.

FROM HERE...FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A DEEP LAYER OF MOISTURE
CONTINUING THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH SOME CONTINUOUS/WIDESPREAD RAINFALL POSSIBLE. RAIN WILL
THEN CHANGE BACK OVER TO SNOW AS TEMPS DROP BELOW FREEZING AFTER
DARK...BEFORE FINALLY LOSING INTENSITY AND TAPERING OFF MONDAY
MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN OVERHEAD.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

VERY ACTIVE AND MESSY WEATHER ON TAP IN THE EXTENDED. THE GFS AND
ECMWF MODELS WERE NOT IN THE BEST OF AGREEMENT REGARDING PRECIP
ONSET AND EVOLUTION DURING THE PERIOD...WITH THE ECMWF BEING
SLOWER AND NOT QUITE AS WET AS THE GFS TO BEGIN THE PERIOD. THE
INITIAL PRECIP EVENT LOOKS TO BE IN FULL SWING SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY...AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA. MOST OF THE
PRECIP WITH THIS FIRST BOUNDARY SHOULD BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN.
SOME SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW BEHIND
THE DEPARTED FRONT ON MONDAY. ANY ACCUMULATIONS WITH THIS SNOW
SHOULD BE MINIMAL AT BEST. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN
EXPECTED TO SETTLE OVER THE AREA FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME MONDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THEN...A SECOND MORE DYNAMIC WEATHER SYSTEM
IS PROGGED TO TAKE SHAPE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWARD...PUSHING ITS WARM FRONT ACROSS THE
TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEY REGIONS MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING. MOIST AIR OVERRUNNING THE FRONT MAY ALLOW FOR A MESSY
MIX OF RAIN...FREEZING RAIN...AND PERHAPS SOME SNOW DURING THIS
PERIOD. LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
NORTH OF THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY...WHERE A COUPLE OF HUNDREDTHS OF AN
INCH OF ICE MAY ACCUMULATE ON EXPOSED AND ELEVATED SURFACES. THE
AIR AT THE SURFACE SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH MY MIDMORNING ON TUESDAY
FOR THE PRECIP TO FALL AS ALL RAIN. ONCE THE WARM FRONT HAS PAST
US BY...A STRONG COLD FRONT IS THEN ON TAP TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA
FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS BOUNDARY WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA FOR
A COUPLE OF DAYS. WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AT TIMES...WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA
TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS RAIN IN AND OF ITSELF MAY LEAD TO
FLOODING ISSUES. COMBINE THIS RAIN WITH RUNOFF FROM MELTING
SNOW...AND THINGS MAY GET INTERESTING. THE PRIMARY CONCERN WITH
THIS EVENT WILL BE WARMING TEMPERATURES AND THE MELTING OF THE
SNOW PACK THAT IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE IN THE HEADWATERS OF THE
KENTUCKY...CUMBERLAND...AND BIG SANDY RIVERS. WITH THE MODELS
STILL PRODUCING A GOOD DEAL OF PRECIP TO BEGIN THE WEEK...WE WILL
CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING NEXT WEEK.

THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH THE END OF THE DAY
ON THURSDAY BEFORE FINALLY MOVING OF TO OUR EAST. THE RAIN WILL
CHANGE TO SNOW WEDNESDAY EVENING...AS COLD AIR BEGINS FILTERING
INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE
NORTH...AND UPSLOPE FLOW BEGINS TO OCCUR...THE SNOW WILL BECOME
MORE WIDESPREAD. LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS SNOW
MOVES OVERSPREADS THE ENTIRE AREA BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE
SNOW WILL TAPER OFF THURSDAY MORNING AS THE FRONT MOVES FURTHER
EAST...AND THE FRONTS PARENT TROUGH ALOFT TAKES ITS ENERGY EAST AS
WELL. LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON BEFORE FINALLY COMING TO AND END JUST BEFORE 0Z FRIDAY.

TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL FLUCTUATE QUITE A BIT.
TEMPS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY LOOK TO BE A BIT BELOW NORMAL...WITH
LOWS IN THE 30S AND HIGHS IN THE 40S. AFTER ANOTHER COLD NIGHT
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 20S IN OUR NORTH AND
THE LOWER 30S IN OUR SOUTH...THE MERCURY IS EXPECTED TO SURGE INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 50S BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO
ALMOST AS WARM WITH MOST OF THE AREA LIKELY TO SEE HIGHS IN THE
LOW TO MID 50S. AFTER THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER SURGE OF VERY COLD AIR IS FORECAST TO
SETTLE OVER THE AREA. THURSDAY MORNINGS LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP
INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...WITH A FEW
LOCATIONS NORTH OF I64 PERHAPS FALLING INTO THE UPPER TEENS. THIS
AIR MASS WILL MAKE ITS PRIMARY PUSH INTO THE AREA THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGHS ON THURSDAY TOPPING OUT MOSTLY IN THE
LOW TO MID 30S. FRIDAY MORNINGS LOWS WILL MARK THE COLDEST
TEMPERATURES OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH MINIMUM VALUES RANGING
BETWEEN 10 AND 15 DEGREES ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY
BE SLIGHTLY WARMER FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS WINDS GRADUALLY
SHIFT TO WEST AND THEN SOUTHWEST. WE WILL SEE ONLY A SLIGHT
IMPROVEMENT IN TEMPERATURES TO END THE WEEK...WITH FORECAST HIGHS
ON FRIDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S FOR MOST LOCATIONS...AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS AROUND 20.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1253 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

MID/HIGH SCT TO BKN CLOUDS ARE BEGINNING TO INTRUDE INTO THE
CWA FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING BOUNDARY. AS THE AREA
OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO NEAR FROM THE
WEST...EXPECT CIGS TO GRADUALLY LOWER TO MVFR BY LATE TONIGHT AS
LIGHT PRECIP SPREADS ACROSS THE CWA...THEN TO IFR AS PRECIP TAKES
HOLD OF THE REGION AND CONTINUES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF
PERIOD. THERE IS STILL SOME QUESTION ABOUT THE FREEZING PRECIP
POTENTIAL...WITH A WARM LAYER ALOFT...AND SURFACE TEMPS NEAR
FREEZING. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ENOUGH AT THIS TIME THAT IT WAS
INCLUDED IN THE TAFS...BUT EXACT TIMING AND IMPACTS ARE STILL YET
TO BE PINNED DOWN. LIGHT AND MAINLY VARIABLE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY...INCREASING
SLIGHTLY OUT OF THE SOUTH DURING THE DAY TOMORROW.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...JMW



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.