Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000
FXUS63 KJKL 290736
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
336 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE HAS SHIFTED OFF TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD...
WITH SURFACE WINDS BECOMING MORE SOUTHEASTERLY ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY. MOISTURE HAS BEEN ON THE INCREASE...WITH HIGHER BASED CU
DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT AND ADVECTING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S IN THE
VALLEYS...TO THE UPPER 60S ON THE RIDGETOPS. ALOFT...A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH IS MOVING INTO THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY REGION...WITHIN
A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH STRUNG OUT BACK TOWARDS THE OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLE. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW ALSO CONTINUES TO CHURN ACROSS GULF
COAST STATES.

MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TODAY AS THE TROUGH GRADUALLY
MOVES FURTHER EAST. HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE
WEST...WHERE THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE OF BREAKING THE CAP. FURTHER
EAST...IT APPEARS THE CAP WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP MOST
CONVECTION AT BAY...BESIDES A STRAY SHOWER OR STORM. HIGHS TODAY
WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID 80S...GENERALLY A FEW DEGREES WARMER
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY.

THE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DAMPEN AS IT HEADS ACROSS THE OHIO
AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS THROUGH SUNDAY...HOWEVER THE GULF COAST
UPPER LEVEL WILL ALSO GET PULLED NORTH...HELPING TO REINFORCE AT
LEAST A WEAKER CAP ENVIRONMENT. AS SUCH...EXPECT MORE SCATTERED
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE ON SUNDAY. THICKER CLOUDS WILL KEEP THE HIGHS
CONFINED TO THE LOWER 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

OUR FORECAST IS A TAD BIT MUDDLED AS THE AREA LIES IN BETWEEN TWO
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CORES...ONE LOCATED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
AND THE OTHER OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. WEAK SHORTWAVES IN
BETWEEN THESE RIDGE CORES WILL AFFECT US THROUGH TIME. MOISTURE
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS WELL AS SOUTHWEST FLOW AROUND THE RIDGE
CORE TO OUR EAST TAPS INTO SOME TROPICAL MOISTURE...INCLUDING
POTENTIALLY SOME MOISTURE FROM WHAT IS NOW TROPICAL STORM ERIKA
LATE IN THE PERIOD.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE THE THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW NOW
LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF SHIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR REGION.
ONCE THIS PASSES...THE THREAT FOR RAIN DIMINISHES WITH PERHAPS AN
AFTERNOON SHOWER OR STORM POSSIBLE OVER OUR HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG
THE VIRGINIA AND TENNESSEE BORDERS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. RAIN
CHANCES...ALBEIT LOW...WILL THEN CREEP BACK INTO THE FORECAST
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS MODELS INDICATE A REINFORCING SHOT OF
MOISTURE MOVING BACK NORTH INTO THE AREA PERHAPS ASSOCIATED WITH
ERIKA...ALTHOUGH THERE IS NOT REAL CONSENSUS ON WHERE THAT SYSTEM
WILL BE BY THAT FAR OUT IN TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 210 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

MVFR OR WORSE FOG WILL SET IN ACROSS MAINLY THE VALLEYS THROUGH
THE REST OF THE NIGHT...INCLUDING SME...LOZ AND SJS. SOME
TEMPORARY IFR IS POSSIBLE AT LOZ...HOWEVER EXPECT THE SCATTERED
HIGHER BASED CU TO KEEP VISIBILITIES IN CHECK THROUGH
DAWN. ONCE THE FOG BURNS OFF BY BETWEEN 12 AND 13Z...EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL. SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL THREATEN
DURING THE DAY...HOWEVER WILL LEAVE OUT A MENTION AT THE TAF SITES
FOR NOW GIVEN THE EXPECTED LIMITED AREAL COVERAGE. WINDS WILL
ENGAGE OUT OF THE SSW AT AROUND 5 KTS DURING THE DAY.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN



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