Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 131218

National Weather Service Jackson KY
718 AM EST Sat Jan 13 2018

Issued at 718 AM EST SAT JAN 13 2018

Light snow and flurries continue to taper off toward the east this
morning. Ridgetops along the Virginia border, especially Black
Mountain, may see additional accumulations of a few tenths upwards
of half an inch. Elsewhere, a dusting to couple tenths of an inch
should be the extent of it. Nonetheless, will highlight slick road
conditions as temperatures sit in the teens and low 20s.


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 350 AM EST SAT JAN 13 2018

The upper wave that pushed through eastern Kentucky yesterday now
continues to work northeast across Pennsylvania as it shears out
and becomes absorbed by another Great Lakes shortwave trough. Its
attendant surface low resides just off the Atlantic Coast east of
New Jersey, bringing moderate to heavy snowfall to northeastern
Ohio and western Pennsylvania up into lower New York.

Eastern Kentucky currently sits on the far southwestern reaches of
the wrap-around moisture, resulting in only very light snow as
drier air works in aloft. Brisk northwest winds will aid in
additional light snow this morning, followed by isolated/scattered
flurries into early this afternoon courtesy of upslope flow along
the higher terrain. Any additional accumulations will largely be
confined to half an inch or so, with amounts up to 1-1.5 inches on
ridgetops near the Virginia border. This upslope component to the
low level flow will make it tough to shake low clouds this
morning, with some clearing finally working in later this
afternoon as surface ridging approaches from the northwest.
Although winds will diminish in magnitude through the day, raw
conditions will be on tap with highs only mustering the low-mid

Aforementioned high pressure working into the lower Ohio Valley
tonight will cool temperatures into the single digits for the most
part, with a few locales south of Mountain Parkway perhaps
remaining in the 10-12 degree range. Although a few degrees
warmer, cyclonic flow will keep temperatures on Sunday well below
normal, in the mid 20s, as light downslope winds develop on the
backside of the departing surface ridge.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 350 AM EST SAT JAN 13 2018

The Central and Eastern CONUS will be dominated by a deepening
trough through the majority of the extended period. By Tuesday,
the trough will become more positively tilted as it deepens. There
is still some disagreement between the ECMWF and GFS regarding
how amplified the trough will become. The ECMWF shows more
deepening by mid-week, with almost a cutoff low forming to the
east of the CWA. The GFS, however, shows more of a shortwave going
through the region than a deepening/cutoff low. Although, both
models are in fairly good agreement that ridging will take hold by
Friday into Saturday.

The main system of focus looks to impact the region Monday evening
into Tuesday morning, bringing increased chances of rain/snow
showers. This doesn`t look to be a particularly strong system in
terms of precipitation, but it will bring much colder temps into
the region. The ECMWF and GFS both agree that the system will
move into the CWA by Monday evening. The ECMWF shows a thicker
line of precip with higher amounts that does not exit until after
Wednesday morning. The GFS shows a thinner, weaker line of precip
that will move out late Tuesday evening. Therefore, there is
still uncertainty in the time frame and precip amounts with
regards to this system.

As the system passes through Monday evening and into mid-week,
this will bring much colder temps into the CWA. This will result
in single digit lows in areas Tuesday and Wednesday nights.
However, high pressure and WAA will take hold over the region
later on in the week, causing temps to increase Friday. Also,
with high pressure building into the region, less cloud cover,
and calmer winds, there are chances of ridge/valley temperature
splits starting Wednesday and increasing through Friday night.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)

MVFR conditions still plaguing much of eastern Kentucky as light
snow continues to fall across the higher terrain, particularly
near the Virginia state line. Northwest winds of near 10-12 knots
will gradually diminish this morning and afternoon as residual
snow tapers to flurries. However, low ceilings may be difficult to
escape as upslope flow persists. Winds will continue to diminish
to near or below 5 knots this evening as ceilings scour out and
lift ahead of approaching high pressure.




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