Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 242105

National Weather Service Jackson KY
505 PM EDT Wed May 24 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 505 PM EDT WED MAY 24 2017

20z sfc analysis shows a stacked low moving through eastern
Kentucky and this is responsible for two separate areas of
thunderstorms this afternoon. The first started out as a large
area of showers over our eastern counties that grew to have
several embedded thunderstorms - all rotating and rather
organized. Concern was greater for the western area of storms
associated with the system`s cold front due to a clear patch in
the clouds allowing for rapid destabilization through the
Cumberland Valley and across much of the JKL CWA in the wake of
the first batch of showers - justifying the watch issuance.
However, just as the watch was going out for those western storms,
the ones in the east strengthened to the point of needing severe
warnings while also training brief, but very heavy, rains through
parts of Floyd and Pike county leading to localized flash
flooding. Now those eastern storms have cleared off and the
western ones are working into eastern Kentucky. We will see how
long they can be sustained and whether there was enough sunshine
ahead of them to make for a favorable environment for further
development and support for the storms. There is a potential for
the watch to be cancelled early depending on these trends.
Readings did make it too the lower 70s ahead of these next storms,
but were in the 60s elsewhere, while dewpoints held in the upper
50s to lower 60s and winds remained rather light beneath the sfc
low and away from any storms.

The models are in good agreement aloft swinging the closed low
through the Ohio Valley with the best energy focused well to the
south of the state tonight though some weaker amounts will swing
through the east this evening and overnight wrapping around to the
north through dawn Thursday. This low then flattens out and works
east of the Ohio Valley by Friday morning with heights rebounding
locally in its wake. Given the model agreement have favored a
blended solution with a strong lean toward the HRRR and other CAMS
in the near term.

Sensible weather will feature the storms settling down by dusk
with showers remaining, mainly to the west and north of the CWA
initially before shifting southeast into the area later tonight.
Lighter rains will then set up over the area into Thursday morning
with some training possible and the need to watch for localized
flooding. The showers will gradually shift northeast and fade out
later Thursday as dry weather returns from southwest to northeast
and eventually clearing later that night. Patchy fog will be
possible in the east this evening and early overnight where the
clouds will be thinnest for a time while patchy - more valley
concentrated - fog will be possible Thursday night.

Again the CONSShort and ShortBlend were used as a starting point
for the grids with only minor adjustments made to temps and
dewpoints through the period. As for PoPs, made some significant
adjustments to them to better represent the spatial and timing
aspects of the shower clusters through Thursday.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 346 PM EDT WED MAY 24 2017

The blended model data was suggesting that after a dry day on
Friday, eastern Kentucky will be in for a period of wet weather
from Friday night through Monday, with another period of rain
possible on Tuesday and Tuesday night. The wettest period looks to
be from Saturday afternoon through Sunday evening, when it appears
that a frontal boundary will stall across the area. Scattered to
numerous showers and storms will possible during this time.
Temperatures during the extended should be running at or slightly
above normal, with daily highs ranging from the upper 70s to lower
80s, and nightly lows in the mid to upper 50s.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)

It looks like multiple bands of convection will be crossing the
area through the evening with thunderstorms possible at all the
TAF sites. Initially the eastern ones will see storms with the
west having a round between 19 and 22z. Some of these western ones
may make it east into the JKL/SJS sites toward sunset, but
uncertainty is high with the evolution and progression of this
next band for the CWA. Following the convection later this
evening, cigs will fall to MVFR or lower through the night with
more scattered showers and less organized convective development.
Outside of any storms winds will be light and variable.




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