Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 011954
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
354 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 354 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FEATURE EAST KENTUCKY IN THE
WARM SECTOR OF AN APPROACHING FRONT. SOME CLEARING CLOUD COVER
ACROSS THE AREA HAS RESULTED IN SOME INCREASED INSTABILITY WITH CU
FIELDS DEVELOPING AS WELL. WITH DECENT SHEAR IN PLACE ACROSS THE
AREA AND A PASSING DECENT WAVE OVERHEAD...STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING. AMPLE INSTABILITY AND CIN FULLY
ERODED...WILL ALLOW FOR THE SEVERE THREAT TO LAST INTO THE
EVENING. HAVE PUT THIS INTO THE HWO FOR THIS EVENING AND INTO
EARLY TONIGHT WITH HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS AS THE MAIN THREAT.

HEADING INTO TONIGHT...MUCH OF THE SEVERE THREAT WILL DIMINISH
WITH THE LOSS OF INSTABILITY TONIGHT. HOWEVER...NUMEROUS
SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WILL KEEP THE CHANCE OF THUNDER
ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF TONIGHT. WITH A SATURATED
ATMOSPHERE...A FEW HEAVY RAINERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE AND HAVE
MENTIONED THIS IN THE HWO AS WELL.

HEADING INTO THE DAY ON MONDAY...ANOTHER WAVE DIVING FURTHER
SOUTHEAST INTO THE MID MS VALLEY WILL THEN PUSH NORTHEAST UP
THROUGH THE APPALACHIAN RANGE AS ANOTHER ROUND OF RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE
ANOTHER SATURATED SOUNDING THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY AND INTO
MONDAY NIGHT WITH PWATS AGAIN NEAR 1.4. WITH THE AMOUNT OF
RAINFALL ALREADY FALLEN THROUGH THE PAST 48 HOURS...THERE MAY BE
MORE FLOODING ISSUES AND A WATCH MAY BE NEEDED. WITH EXITING
FORCING AND GOOD INSTABILITY DIMINISHED...CONVECTION AND LARGELY
THE FLOODING THREAT SHOULD END BY MONDAY NIGHT 06Z.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 523 AM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

A DRASTIC PATTERN CHANGE WILL TAKE EFFECT OVER THE REGION AS WE
HEAD THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH MUCH COOLER WEATHER
ANTICIPATED HEADING THROUGH THE FIRST WEEK OF MAY. THE PERIOD WILL
START AS MOISTURE FROM A SHORTWAVE LEADS TO SOME LIGHT SHOWERS
ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. BEST POPS WILL BE IN SOUTHEASTERN
KENTUCKY...TRAILING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW
MUCH RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY LINGERS INTO TUESDAY AS MODELS KEEP IT
FAIRLY UNSETTLED THROUGH THE DAY WITH ANOTHER WEAK WAVE DROPPING
IN FROM THE NORTH. THUS...WILL MAINTAIN SOME LOW POPS THROUGH
TUESDAY. A POSSIBLE BREAK FROM SHOWERS WILL BE SEEN TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...OUR NEXT POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
DROP SOUTH LATE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PRODUCING ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR RAIN...ALONG WITH USHERING IN MUCH COOLER WEATHER.
TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY MAY HOLD IN THE 50S...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS
INTO FRIDAY INTO THE LOW 40S. WE MAY STAY IN THE 50S YET AGAIN ON
FRIDAY...BEFORE WE START TO MODERATE HEADING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND RAIN CHANCES THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK...AND POSSIBLY INTO THE WEEKEND AS A DEEP
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS WILL SETUP
UP SEVERAL WAVES DROPPING SOUTH ALONG WITH UPSLOPE NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL PROVIDE PLENTY OF SUPPORT FOR SHOWERS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 133 PM EDT SUN MAY 1 2016

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE CLEARED OUT OF THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A FEW MVFR CIGS LEFTOVER FROM LINGERING LOW LEVEL
CLOUD CLOVER. MUCH OF THE AREA IS BREAKING OUT INTO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE INTO THE AREA. MUCH OF THE AREA WILL BE IN
VFR CONDITIONS WITH SOME ISOLATED LOW CIGS AND VIS WITH THE
SCATTERED STORMS. WITH A MOIST AREA HEADING INTO TONIGHT...SOME
FOG AND LOW CIGS WILL DEVELOP IN THE VALLEYS TONIGHT WITH MOST TAF
SITES GOING DOWN TO IFR AND BELOW. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT
THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER



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