Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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552
FXUS63 KJKL 060855
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
355 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 114 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

FRESHENED UP THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS THROUGH DAWN
BASED ON THE LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS. HIGH CLOUDS AND VERY
LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE ALLOWED FOR A BIT OF RIDGE/VALLEY
TEMPERATURE SPLIT...WITH VALLEYS IN THE LOW TO MID 20S...WHILE
RIDGES ARE CURRENTLY REPORTING IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S. THE
COLDEST VALLEYS LOOK TO STILL MAKE IT INTO THE TEENS...BUT BASED
ON THE CURRENT RATE OF DROP AND PERSISTENT HIGH CLOUDS...DID
SCALE BACK THE COOL OFF JUST A TOUCH. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1047 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

EXTENSIVE HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO ROLL IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND
LOOK LIKE THEY MAY HOLD THROUGH THE NIGHT. UPDATED TO INCREASE THE
CLOUD COVER. DESPITE THE HIGH CLOUDS...THIS WON`T HAVE MUCH IMPACT
ON TEMPERATURES AND IN FACT VALLEYS ARE ALREADY INTO THE MID 20S
WITH RIDGES FALLING INTO THE LOW 30S. UPDATED TEMPERATURES TO
DECREASE THEM A BIT IN A FEW MORE PLACES INTO THE UPPER TEENS
BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS. THESE UPDATES HAVE BEEN SAVED AND SENT TO
THE NDFD AND WEB.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 716 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

HIGH CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS THE AREA...BUT
REGARDLESS...VALLEYS ARE ALREADY DROPPING FAST WITH VALLEYS
ALREADY INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S. NO MAJOR CHANGES AT THIS TIME
OUTSIDE OF UPDATING THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 530 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

UPDATED THIS EVENING TO INCREASE SKIES TO PARTLY CLOUDY AREAWIDE
AS AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS HAS SPREAD ACROSS THE
AREA. BASED ON SATELLITE TRENDS...WE SHOULD SEE SKIES GO BACK TO
MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT...BUT IT MIGHT TAKE MOST OF THE EVENING
BEFORE THIS HAPPENS. GIVEN THE TEENS WE HAD LAST NIGHT FOR
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS THAT MIXED INTO THE MID TEENS
TODAY...WE SHOULD SEE SOME TEENS IN THE VALLEYS AGAIN TONIGHT.
THUS...LOWERED TEMPERATURES A BIT IN THE VALLEYS AND ON RIDGES TO
MATCH THE COLDER GUIDANCE A BIT BETTER. UPDATED FORECAST HAS BEEN
SAVED AND SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE BENIGN WEATHER AS EASTERN
KENTUCKY WILL BE UNDER CONTROL OF WEAK SFC RIDGING THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING. CURRENTLY...TEMPS HAVE WARMED INTO THE LOW 40S
WITH PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE. THERE IS SOME HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS MOVING
INTO THE AREA BUT THESE CLOUDS WILL NOT HAVE ANY EFFECT ON
TONIGHT/S LOW TEMPERATURES WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO GET INTO THE LOW
AND MID 20S. TOMORROW...AN UPPER LEVEL SOUTHERN STREAM LOW WILL
EJECT OUT OF TX AND PASS BY TO OUR SOUTH. AS THIS LOW APPROACHES
THE REGION ...WE WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER THROUGHOUT
THE DAY...THOUGH TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO GET INTO THE
UPPER 40S. TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT WON/T GET AS CHILLY DUE TO
THE LINGERING CLOUDS...BUT WILL LIKELY STILL DIP INTO THE UPPER
20S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

THE FIRST HALF OF THE EXTENDED STILL LOOKS TO BE QUITE ACTIVE...AS
A STRONG AND RATHER LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DIVES OUT OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS SUNDAY
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE LATEST MODEL DATA SUGGESTS THAT
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL ENTER OUR WESTERN
COUNTIES LATE MONDAY EVENING IN THE FORM OF SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS. THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD WILL STEADILY OVERSPREAD EASTERN
KENTUCKY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH MOST OF THE AREA EXPERIENCING RAIN
SHOWERS BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN WELL
ABOVE FREEZING FOR MOST OF THE DAY ON MONDAY. HOWEVER...A SURFACE
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LARGE PARENT LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN KENTUCKY BETWEEN 18Z MONDAY AND 0Z TUESDAY.
ONCE THE WIND SHIFTS TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY...TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN DECREASING RATHER QUICKLY. THE
NONDIURNAL TEMPERATURE DROP WILL ALLOW PRECIPITATION TO MIX WITH
AND CHANGE OVER TO SNOW LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY MONDAY
EVENING. A DOME OF COLD AIR IS THEN FORECAST TO REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. IN
FACT...TEMPERATURES COULD VERY WELL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING FROM
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH ALL BUT A HANDFUL OF OUR
SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES REMAIN BELOW 32 DEGREES ON THURSDAY.

ACCUMULATING SNOW FALL IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR FROM MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE BULK OF THE ACCUMULATING SHOULD OCCUR
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...AS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE PAST
JUST TO OUR NORTH AND LIFT IS BEING MAXIMIZED. AT THIS TIME IT IS
TOO EARLY TO HONE IN ON PRECISE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS THE
AREA...BUT IT IS APPEARING MORE AND MORE LIKELY THAT WE WILL SEE
AROUND 36 HOURS OF ACCUMULATING SNOW EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE LAST OF
THE SNOW SHOULD BE EXITING EASTERN KENTUCKY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
AFTER THAT...A DOME OF COLD HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO SETTLE
OVER THE AREA...WHICH SHOULD BRING DRY ALBEIT COLD WEATHER TO
EASTERN KENTUCKY.

TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL EACH
DAY...WITH A FEW DAYS IN A ROW OF BELOW FREEZING TEMPS A GOOD BET.
LOW TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY ARE EXPECTED TO
BOTTOM OUT IN THE TEENS AS THE COLD AIR BECOMES FIRMLY ENTRENCHED.
HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE HARD PRESSED TO REACH 32 DEGREES FOR MOST
LOCATIONS...WITH MAX VALUES MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 20S EXPECTED.
WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE EVEN COLDER DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF THE
GROUND BEING COVERED IN SNOW ACROSS AREA. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY ARE
LIKELY TO ONLY MAKE IT INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S. THE END OF THE
WEEK SHOULD BE WARMER...BUT NOT BY MUCH AS NEXT FRIDAYS HIGHS AREA
ONLY FORECAST TO TOP OUT AROUND 40 FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 114 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD AS
HIGH PRESSURE MAINTAINS CONTROL AT THE SURFACE. MAINLY SOME
PASSING HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE SEEN THROUGH SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH
SOME SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS IN THE 5-8K FEET AGL RANGE WILL
MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LIGHT SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PEAK BETWEEN 5 AND 7 KTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...JVM
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN



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