Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KJKL 271754
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
154 PM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 153 PM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015

THE LINE OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO PUSH
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD
FRONT JUST TO THE WEST PUSHING THROUGH. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS THROUGH
THIS PERIOD TO MATCH UP WITH THE TRENDS IN THE HI RES MODELS. WITH
SUBSIDENCE PUSHING THROUGH TONIGHT AS WELL...HAVE NIXED POPS IN
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS WELL AND HAVE ADDED SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG
AS WITH A WEAK GRADIENT AND A SATURATED BOUNDARY LAYER...FOG SEEMS
TO BE A GOOD BET. WITH THIS UPDATE ISSUED A NEW ZFP.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1009 AM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015

CURRENT CONDITIONS THIS MORNING FEATURE A FEW LINES OF SHOWERS
TRAVELING ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. THIS IS RESULTING IN SOME LOW
CIGS ACROSS THE AREA BUT OVERALL NOTHING NOT MENTIONED IN THE
CURRENT FORECAST. WILL EXPECT THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY TO MOVE ON TO
THE EAST WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON. THE
GRIDS HAVE BEEN UPDATED WITH THE MOST CURRENT OBS AND SENT TO NDFD
AND WEB SERVERS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 630 AM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015

REGIONAL WSR-88D RADAR CONTINUES TO SHOW ACTIVITY ACROSS MIDDLE TN
AND SOUTH CENTRAL KY MOVING ENE TOWARD EASTERN KY THIS MORNING.
HRRR HAS SOME CLUE ON THIS...HOWEVER IT SEEMS TO BE QUITE ROBUST
IN SPOTS. THIS INITIAL RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH
SOME DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND WAVE AS TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEEPEN
ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. THE COLD FRONT LOOKS TO BE ACROSS
WESTERN KY THIS MORNING AND WILL PROGRESS EAST TODAY WITH
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. UPDATED
GRIDS WITH LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. GRIDS FINALIZED AND SENT TO
NDFD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015

OVERALL MODELS INITIALIZED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN QUITE WELL BASED
ON 00Z UA DATA. THIS MORNING GOOD AGREEMENT WITH LOW BEGINNING TO
CUTOFF ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...WHILE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS
ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD EXPECTING
THIS UPPER LOW TO MOVE NORTHEAST IN NEW ENGLAND. WHILE ANOTHER
WAVE DROPS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST BY LATE IN THE PERIOD.

MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS PAINTS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTERED
ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA WITH COLD FRONT STRETCHING BACK INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. HERE IN EASTERN KENTUCKY WE REMAIN IN THE WARM
SECTOR WITH WARM FRONT TO THE NORTH. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING NE INTO THE SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND AS IT BECOMES VERTICALLY STACKED. THIS WILL SWEEP A COLD
FRONT ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS AFTERNOON. SOME OF THE SOME CAM
MODELS WOULD SUGGEST CONVECTION DOES FIRE UP ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THEREFORE DID KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. GIVEN THAT WE WILL HAVE A
APPROACHING COLD FRONT...DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S...0-6 KM SHEAR
NEAR 40 KNOTS COULD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A ISOLATED STRONGER
STORM IN THE AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCES LOOK TO BE IN THE FAR
EAST AND SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION AND GIVEN THAT MANY
OF THE CAMS ARE MODEST...CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON THIS AT THIS
JUNCTURE. OTHERWISE THIS FRONT WILL USHER IN COOLER AND DRYER
WEATHER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. IN IT/S WAKE EXPECT SUNNY
SKIES AND HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 AM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN TO
CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK...WITH A RIDGE HOLDING ACROSS
THE WEST AND A TROUGH IN THE EAST. TOWARDS THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK...THE FLOW WILL FLATTEN A BIT MORE AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY
BECOMES A BIT MORE CONFINED FURTHER NORTH. STILL...THIS WILL MEAN
A CONTINUED BOUT OF UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR EASTERN
KENTUCKY...ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE BELOW NORMAL WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.

SUNDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE THE ONLY DRY PERIOD IN THE EXTENDED...AS
SOME TEMPORARY RIDGING WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY...BEFORE TROUGHING AND PASSING SHORT WAVES TAKE OVER
THEREAFTER. AT THE SURFACE...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL ALSO BE
NEARBY...ADDING TO THE LIKELIHOOD OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTEND WITH EVERYDAY FROM MONDAY ONWARD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 153 PM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015

IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS AFTERNOON. THE
COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH THROUGH ALL OF EASTERN KENTUCKY BY 23Z
LEAVING SOME WESTERLY WINDS GUSTING UP TO 20 KNOTS IN SOME AREAS.
THIS WILL LEAD TO SOME VFR CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES WITH CLEAR
SKIES EXPECT AFTER 00Z TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THIS WILL ALSO LEAD TO
SOME FOG DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT WITH MOST TAF SITES DROPPING BELOW
MINS. MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD RECOVER TO VFR CONDITIONS TOMORROW
SHORTLY AFTER 13Z TOMORROW.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SHALLENBERGER
SHORT TERM...DJ
LONG TERM...KAS/GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.