Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 210302 AAC
AFDJKL

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
1102 PM EDT WED JUL 20 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1055 PM EDT WED JUL 20 2016

Showers have dissipated across the region with only some debris
clouds remaining. Some valley locations in the east have already
reached the upper 60s while ridgetop locations and some more open
terrain locations closer to the Interstate 75 corridor are in the
mid to upper 70s. The previous forecast remains on target for the
most part. Valley fog should again develop with high pressure
dominating, but should have less areal coverage than last night
with a drier airmass in place.

UPDATE Issued at 812 PM EDT WED JUL 20 2016

A few light showers are moving across the Lake Cumberland Region
and additional weakening showers are approaching that region at
this time. Deeper moisture and higher dewpoints remain across this
area although sunset occurs in less than an hour. Isolated showers
and perhaps a stray thunderstorm remain possible for locations
near and west of Interstate 75 although activity should continue
to weaken overall and dissipate by 10 PM.

UPDATE Issued at 530 PM EDT WED JUL 20 2016

Hourly pops have been increased slightly on the western and
southwestern fringe of the CWA generally for locations nearer to
or to the west of Interstate 75 to the isolated range. Activity
over portions of the Bluegrass region and Central KY could survive
into this region or the outflows from this could lead to at least
a shower developing prior to sunset. This area has higher sfc
dewpoints on average and PW is closer to the 1.4 to 1.5 inch rain
in this area and this area lies closer to the PW gradient. Any
activity should wane with the loss of daytime heating.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 245 PM EDT WED JUL 20 2016

High pressure will remain in control of our weather through
Thursday night. MCS activity to our northwest may throw some
debris cloudiness overhead from time to time, but dry air in place
over east Kentucky should keep any precip just to our west. This
dry air, with dewpoints noted as low as the mid and upper 50s in
a few locations this afternoon, will allow temperatures tonight to
fall back into the 60s. Highs tomorrow should warm to around 90,
but again with bearable humidity levels. Models then indicate our
low level flow veers to more of a southerly direction Thursday
night, which will set us up for higher dewpoint air to advect in
for Friday and beyond.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 245 EDT wed JUL 20 2016

The long term portion of the forecast will be dominated by a
persistent mid/upper level ridge across the southern United States.
This will result in hot humid weather into the weekend. Heat index
values during the afternoon are expected to be around 100 in some
locations from Friday into Sunday, and possibly on Monday. A series
of short waves will move west to east along the northern periphery
of the ridge, with the most significant wave early next week.
This particular wave and associated surface low will help push a
cold front towards the area Monday, and it is on Monday that the
best chance for thunderstorms will exist. With the ridge in our
area being somewhat suppressed next week, temperatures will remain
above average, but not as warm as this weekend.

A couple of items of note: Timing of any specific short wave remains
uncertain, and there will be at least a low chance of showers and
thunderstorms throughout the forecast period. The best chance as
supported by a blended model approach appears to be Monday. Another
area of uncertainty is the afternoon temperature forecast for the
weekend, as maximum temperatures will depend on how much debris
cloudiness moves across the area from any upstream convection, and
how much convection occurs locally. Generally the model blends are
indicating slightly lower, but still well above average high
temperatures for the weekend, as compared to our current forecast
maximums.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
ISSUED AT 81 PM EDT WED JUL 20 2016

A stray shower or perhaps a thunderstorm cannot be ruled out for
locations generally west of Interstate 75 through about 2Z, but
most locations should remain dry. VCSH and VFR CIG around 5KFT was
used at both SME and LOZ to reflect this. Otherwise, with high
pressure dominating, VFR conditions will prevail throughout the
period with one caveat. Patchy valley fog will develop around or
just after 6Z at non TAF site locations. With a drier airmass in
place compared to 24 hours ago, particularly at the three eastern
sites of JKL, SYM, SJS, there should be less coverage of fog than
on Wednesday morning. Winds will be light and variable and average
less than 10KT.

&&

.JKL Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...ABE
LONG TERM...SBH
AVIATION...JP


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