Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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070
FXUS63 KJKL 212358 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
758 PM EDT Fri Jul 21 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 758 PM EDT FRI JUL 21 2017

Isolated convection initiated north of I-64 early this evening.
This is on the demise now, as outflow from earlier storms
gradually lifts to the northeast. Ongoing more organized
convection up in Illinois looks to stay to our north through the
rest of the night, so will keep the area dry. Consequently, have
reduced the sky cover and played up the valley fog a bit more.
Lows generally in the low to mid 70s looks on target, although did
nudge a few valley readings down a bit more based on the trends in
observations. Updates have been sent.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 325 PM EDT FRI JUL 21 2017

Convection associated with the MCS that moved across OH affected
the northern part of our forecast area this morning, but the
convection quickly dissipated as it moved into the northern part
of our forecast area. A couple of outflows were associated with
this with one pushing into VA where more convection was triggered,
and a secondary residual boundary which remains across the
central part of the forecast area. It is still possible something
could develop along this residual boundary late this afternoon
and evening.

Satellite also shows an MCV across IN with convection beginning
to develop in west central IN, and there is yet another MCS across
WI. The HRRR is not showing much development this evening over
IN with the MCV, but latches onto the system now in WI.

Both the NAM and GFS point towards the possibility of convection
across the north early tonight, possibly associated with the
Indiana MCV. The ECMWF points towards a chance in the north closer
to dawn as the main MCS now in WI passes by to our north. For the
near term forecast have leaned towards the HRRR with support from
the ECMWF. This results in lower rain chances for tonight than
either the GFS or NAM MOS.

As we move into Saturday another steamy day is on tap with maximum
forecasts mostly in the lower 90s and heat indices near 100. How
much convection we see on Saturday is still in question and
followed the standard model blend for rain chances Saturday.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 325 PM EDT FRI JUL 21 2017

The period begins with a upper level short wave trough and
associated surface low pushing SSE across the northern Great
Lakes. This will progress on into the northeastern U.S. early next
week, with the associated cold front moving across our area on
Monday. At this point it appears the best chance for showers and
storms will be Sunday afternoon even though the front won`t clear
the area until Monday. The front looks to stall to our south next
week. This will result in temperatures closer to normal, but with
at least a small chance of daily showers and storms especially in
the southern part of the forecast area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
ISSUED AT 758 PM EDT FRI JUL 21 2017

Mainly VFR conditions will prevail through the period, as we
remain under the influence of an upper level ridge. Some MVFR or
worse fog will be seen in the deeper valleys once again between 06
and 12z. Some relatively drier air did mix down at SME and LOZ
late this afternoon into the early evening hours. As such, have
only kept a temporary window of MVFR fog at SME to between 09 and
12z. Isolated to scattered convection will threaten eastern
Kentucky during the afternoon hours, and have included VCTS at
all sites by 16z Saturday. Light and variable winds through the
night will increase to between 5 and 10 kts out of the west
southwest by Saturday afternoon.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...SBH
LONG TERM...SBH
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN



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