Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 232053
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
353 PM EST Mon Jan 23 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 351 PM EST MON JAN 23 2017

Current conditions across the area feature the last of the banded
rainfall weakening and lifting off to the east as the parent low
shifts up the east coast. As this happens tonight, winds will
shift around to the north and northwest. This will create a bit of
an upslope component allowing for continued cloud cover and shower
activity through the night. Therefore will keep at least some
chance pops in the grids through tonight. With the event nearly
over and the moderate rainfall pushing off to the northeast, will
pull the mention of the minor flooding from the HWO. As well,
with the moisture fallen over the area, have put in some instances
of patchy fog through tonight and into tomorrow morning.


For Tuesday, a slow exit for the cloud cover and northwesterly
flow will keep highs in the 40s for Tuesday with the shower
activity finally coming to an end on Tuesday afternoon. This will
finally lead to another brief dry period Tuesday afternoon and
Tuesday night. This will signal the beginning of a pattern change
ahead of the next cold front drying out as it reaches the OH
valley.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 351 PM EST MON JAN 23 2017

The period will feature the completion of a large scale pattern
change, putting an end to our long stretch of above normal
temperatures, and marking the beginning of a run of below normal
temperatures.

Deep low pressure moving northeast toward the Great Lakes will
initially bring us warm air advection as the period starts. One more
mild day will result on Wednesday. A cold front trailing from the
low will approach late in the day Wednesday and move through in the
evening. Moisture return will be limited and occur just ahead of the
advancing front, but the 12Z GFS is a bit more aggressive with it as
compared to yesterday. A model blend supports a POP as high as 50%
with fropa near the VA border. POPs to the northwest will be lower,
with only 20% used in our Bluegrass region.

Our regime after fropa will feature persistent low level west to
northwest cyclonic upslope flow and cold air advection- a recipe for
clouds and flurries/snow showers. There will be multiple impulses
moving through the flow aloft. Trying to forecast specifics with
these at long range is problematic. Have used an extended period of
very light precip potential, with some minor peaks when a model
blend shows the best agreement for embedded upper level waves
passing through the large scale northeast CONUS trough. The
strongest impulse is expected late Sunday and Sunday night. The GFS
now even shows a weak surface feature associated with it.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1244 PM EST MON JAN 23 2017

Current conditions across the area feature the swath of rainfall
associated with the upper low finally lifting northeast up the
east coast as it exits eastern Kentucky. Rainfall will slowly exit
the area through the afternoon. However, northerly flow and
continued wrap around moisture will keep IFR and below cigs
through the rest of the TAF period. Expect winds to remain
northerly to northwest at 10 to 20 knots adding to the lingering
cloudiness due to upslope.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER



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