Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000
FXUS63 KJKL 290244
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1044 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1044 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015

MADE ONLY MINOR UPDATES TO GRIDS...BLENDING OBS INTO THE
FORECAST.


UPDATE ISSUED AT 737 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015

MADE ONLY MINOR UPDATES TO GRIDS...MAINLY TO BLEND EVENING OBS
INTO THE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 347 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY NOSED IN ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY FROM THE SOUTHWEST. A PLEASANT AIR MASS IS CURRENTLY IN
PLACE...WITH DEW POINTS HAVING MIXED DOWN INTO THE UPPER 40S AND
LOWER 50S ACROSS THE AREA...WITH SOME FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS
OVERHEAD. ALOFT...AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN IS CURRENTLY RULING ACROSS
THE CONUS...WITH RIDGING OUT WEST...AND TROUGHING IN THE EAST.

CUMULUS WILL BE ON THE DEMISE TOWARDS DUSK...WITH HIGH CLOUDS
LIKELY ON OUR DOORSTEP FROM THE NORTHWEST. LOW LEVEL DRY AIR WILL
FOSTER ANOTHER COOL NIGHT FOR US...WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE
LOWER TO MID 50S IN THE COOLER VALLEYS...TO AROUND 60 ON THE
RIDGES. A STOUT SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING RENEWED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. THE NORTHERN COUNTIES WILL SEE THE BEST
OVERALL CHANCE...CLOSEST TO THE FORCING...AND HAVE GONE WITH
LIKELY POPS...WITH LESSER CHANCES TO THE SOUTH. DESPITE THE
INCREASED CLOUD COVER...BREEZIER SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD HELP TO
PUSH HIGHS UP INTO THE LOWER 80S FOR MOST SOUTH OF I-64.

THERE STILL REMAINS UNCERTAINTY WHETHER THE BETTER AVAILABLE
SHEAR AND INSTABILITY CAN ALIGN ON MONDAY...HOWEVER GIVEN THE
UPGRADE FROM SPC ON THE DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...WILL MENTION
THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME SEVERE STORMS ON MONDAY.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH MONDAY
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH EXITS AND WE
LOSE HEATING. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE MORE BALMY...GENERALLY IN
THE MID 60S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015

THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS ON TUESDAY WITH AN ACTIVE RIDGE
TROUGH PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS. THIS NORTHWEST FLOW INTO THE OH
RIVER VALLEY WILL PERSIST INTO MUCH OF THE EXTENDED. IN THIS
PATTERN...AN MCS LIKE TREND STILL SEEMS POSSIBLE AND THE GFS AND
EURO ARE PRETTY CONSISTENT WITH THIS PATTERN CONTINUING THROUGH
SATURDAY. TUESDAY BEGINS WITH A WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA BUT AS
OF RIGHT NOW...THE PRECIP LOOKS TO BE TIED TO THE FRONT OR JUST OUT
AHEAD OF IT. WEDNESDAY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SEEMS TO BE MORE LIKE A
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX. HOWEVER...THE FEATURES MOVING THROUGH ON
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY SEEM TO BE MORE OF AN MCS TYPE NATURE WITH
THIS PATTERN CONTINUING INTO THE END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE
OVERALL UPPER LEVEL PATTERN SEEMS TO BE WELL IN HAND AND CONSISTENT
WITH THE NEWEST RUNS OF THE GFS AND EURO.

WHILE IT DOES SEEM THAT DIURNAL TRENDS WILL HAVE QUITE AN IMPACT ON
HOW THE COMPLEXES WILL PLAY OUT IN THE EXTENDED AND TIMING COMPOUNDS
THIS...WILL BE SURE TO INCREASE POPS EACH DAY DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING TIME FRAME. THE SUPER BLEND ALSO SEEMS TO AGREE WITH
THIS PATTERN AS IT KEEPS POPS EVERY PERIOD THROUGH THE EXTENDED.
WHILE THIS MAY BE A BIT EXCESSIVE...TIMING AS MENTIONED...WILL BE
AN ISSUE AS WELL. THEREFORE...DID ADJUST THE POPS TO HAVE A
DIURNAL TREND BUT KEEPING THE MAX POPS DURING THE DAYTIME AND
EVENING AS SUGGESTED BY THE BLEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 737 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WITH WINDS LESS THAN 10 KT ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH
TONIGHT. AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD
THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST ON MONDAY MORNING. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE THEN EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE
PRECIPITATION MAY BRING LOCALIZED IFR...ESPECIALLY IN AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTAIN HAIL AND
STRONG WINDS. EVEN OUTSIDE OF STORMS...WINDS WILL PICK UP OUT OF
THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY...WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KTS IN THE
AFTERNOON.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...HAL


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