Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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885
FXUS63 KJKL 270522
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
122 AM EDT Mon Mar 27 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1054 PM EDT SUN MAR 26 2017

Thunder has ended across the area, and will remove this for the
rest of the night. Some isolated to scattered showers will
continue to linger across the area through the next few hours,
before diminishing. There are some thinner spots in the cloud
cover upstream, and with a slackening pressure gradient expected
through the rest of the night and recent rainfall, will include
some patchy dense fog across the area. Low temperatures will
average in the mid 50s, and have mainly freshened up the hourly
temperature drop off. Updates have been sent.

UPDATE Issued at 813 PM EDT SUN MAR 26 2017

A few clusters of showers and isolated thunder are shifting
northeast across portions of eastern Kentucky early this evening.
One of these will pivot through the I-64 in the next hour, while
another one will exit into West Virginia. The latest HRRR has been
showing additional activity firing up in the next 2 to 3 hours;
however, with the better forcing moving off to the northeast and
the loss of heating, am leaning more towards a gradual weakening
trend, which has been the case upstream. Have freshened up the
POP trends over the next few hours, with thunder chances ending
in the next 1 to 2 hours, as the aforementioned clusters of
convection exit. Have also included some patchy fog, with pockets
of clearing and some locally heavy rainfall having occurred.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 300 PM EDT SUN MAR 26 2017

The short term period will be active, with numerous showers and
isolated thunderstorms moving across the area through around 2Z
this evening. A few of the storms this afternoon could produce
hail and strong wind gusts. The thunder chances should only last
through 23 or 0Z, as any remaining instability and best forcing
should be gone after that. General rain showers are expected
overnight, and these will taper off steadily through 6Z, and
should be gone by around 9Z. After a very brief reprieve, we
should see more showers moving into the area from the south and
southwest between 12 and 13Z on Monday. Isolated to scattered
thunderstorms will be possible again after 17Z on Monday. There
will be a good chance of thunder Monday night as well, as a strong
area of low pressure aloft and a fast moving but weak cold front
both move across the region. Mostly cloudy to cloudy skies will
also be on tap, as ample moisture will continue streaming into the
area from the south. Temperatures through out the period will
continue to run well above normal, with nightly lows in the 50s,
and highs on Monday in the low to mid 70s expected.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 440 PM EDT SUN MAR 26 2017

The period is expected to begin with a mid and upper level trough
moving through the OH Valley region and into the Appalachians that
shifts east during the day on Tuesday and takes deeper moisture
with it. The associated surface low is expected to move into the
Mid Atlantic states by Tuesday evening and take the cold front
across the area on Tuesday morning. Mid and upper level ridging
should build in behind it, with surface high pressure nosing into
the OH Valley at midweek. This should bring a break in the
unsettled weather with mild and drier weather from late Tuesday
evening through Wednesday night.

The pattern will remain rather active with the next in a series
of upper lows or shortwaves moving from the Southern Rockies
across the Plains and into the mid MS and OH Valleys from Wed
through Thursday evening. There is also some timing and strength
differences with the upper and surface low beyond Thursday. The
general consensus however, is for the upper and surface system to
track to the west and north of the area from Thursday through
Friday night and bring additional rounds of showers and a few
thunderstorms to the area. This system should continue to depart
on Saturday with surface and upper level ridging building in for a
dry end to the weekend.

Chances for showers will be highest to start the period, followed
by a lull at midweek. The next system will bring another period of
unsettled weather with pops in the good chance to likely range
form Thursday into Friday evening. At this point, next weekend is
expected to end on a dry note.

High temperatures should average above normal for most of the
period, although highs on Wednesday and Saturday should be near
normal for late March/Early April. Lows will also be mild and at
this point are not expected to fall below 40 at any point, even in
the normally colder valley locations.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
ISSUED AT 122 AM EDT MON MAR 27 2017

Coverage of showers have decreased this hour, but not out of the
question that a shower will move over SYM. That said, the upstream
ob at IOB stayed VFR based on the obs and therefore opted to keep
SYM VFR. Some guidance still suggests a layer of stratocu is not
out of the question overnight, but the trend in the guidance has
been VFR CIGs. This will be tough to forecast given the scatter
holes in the cloud deck seen in the IR SAT. These holes in the
clouds will also lead to fog particularly in the valleys and areas
that saw rain today. Given the latest guidance did opt to keep
the TAF sites VFR for now. Then the challenge will be how much
convection develops and where for this afternoon. Right now will
add showers and VCTS to all sites at 18Z and some of these will
probably linger into the evening. The winds are expected to
remain light generally out of the south and southwest through the
TAF period. However, any stronger thunderstorm that develop this
afternoon could contain gusty winds.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...DJ



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