Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 261918
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
318 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1004 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

DIURNAL LULL IN PRECIP SHOULD COME TO AN END OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. LARGE POCKETS OF SUNSHINE ARE ALLOWING FOR DESTABILIZATION
THIS MORNING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST CONVECTION WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE BY EARLY AFTERNOON. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY ALREADY
SHOWS NEW CU DEVELOPING OVER OUR SW COUNTIES. HAVE BLENDED MID
MORNING OBS INTO THE LATE DAY FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

ACTIVE WEATHER IN STORE TODAY THROUGH TOMORROW ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY. WARM MOIST AIR OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL INTERACT WITH
A POTENT SHORT WAVE AS IT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE SOUTH
CENTRAL PLAINS AND INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT.
A POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE
PARENT SHORT WAVE LOOKS TO BE THE TRIGGER FOR SHOWER AND STORM
ACTIVITY TODAY AND TONIGHT. BASED ON CURRENT OBS DATA...AND THE
LATEST RUN OF THE NAM12 AND GFS MODELS...IT LOOKS AS IF THE SHOWER
AND STORM ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN TO FIRE EARLY THIS MORNING AS THE
SHORT WAVE EJECTS OUT THE PLAINS AND TOWARD THE CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD OF RAIN TODAY
WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING DURING PEAK HEATING. THERE WILL
BE A SLIGHT LULL IN THE ACTION OVERNIGHT AS WE LOSE HEATING. RAIN
CHANCES WILL THEN INCREASE AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AS A COLD FRONT
FINALLY MAKES ITS WAY EASTWARD AS A SECOND SHORT WAVE MOVES OUT OF
THE PLAINS AND ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION. SOME THUNDERSTORMS
MAY REACH SEVERE LIMITS LATER TODAY...WITH DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS...LARGE HAIL...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THE PRIMARY
THREATS.

TEMPERATURES TODAY AND TOMORROW WILL BE RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL...WITH HIGHS EACH DAY TOPPING OUT IN THE LOWER 80S
TODAY AND AROUND 80 ON WEDNESDAY. TONIGHTS LOWS WILL BE WARM AND
MUGGY...WITH READINGS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE MID 60S ACROSS THE
AREA.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL REIGN ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A RIDGE GRADUALLY BREAKS DOWN ACROSS THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEASTERN CONUS...IN RESPONSE TO TROUGHING
TRAVERSING THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER. MULTIPLE SHORT WAVE TROUGHS
WILL TAKE AIM AT THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS...PROVIDING A
FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY...PARTICULARLY DURING
PEAK HEATING. STUCK FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE BLENDED GUIDANCE...ALTHOUGH
DID UNDERCUT THE POPS A BIT DURING PERIODS OF ADVERTISED WEAKER
FORCING...AS MODELS TEND TO INFLATE THE CONVECTION IN GENERAL. THE
BEST OVERALL CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION LOOK TO BE NEXT WEEKEND AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS A COLD FRONT NEARS FROM THE NORTHWEST IN
TANDEM WITH BETTER UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S
AND HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 318 PM EDT TUE MAY 26 2015

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE ON THE INCREASE AS THE PERIOD
STARTED...ESPECIALLY TO OUR NORTH AND WEST. THE GREATER
CONCENTRATION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD PROGRESS
EASTWARD INTO THE JKL FORECAST AREA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. A DIMINISHING TREND IS EXPECTED AS THE AREA OF PRECIP
CROSSES EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS EVENING AND EVENTUALLY EXITS TO THE
EAST LATE TONIGHT. MVFR CAN BE EXPECTED AT TIMES WITH THE
PRECIP...AND POSSIBLY LOCALIZED IFR IN THE HEAVIEST PRECIP. AFTER
A RELATIVE LULL IN PRECIP WEDNESDAY MORNING...SOME RENEWED
DEVELOPMENT MAY TAKE PLACE AS DIURNAL HEATING OCCURS TOWARD THE
END OF THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO WARRANT ANY
INCLUSION IN TAFS ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...HAL



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