Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000
FXUS63 KJKL 311928
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
328 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

NONE OF THE MODELS ARE REALLY HANDLING THIS AFTERNOONS SHOWER AND
STORM ACTIVITY VERY WELL. AS IT STANDS...THE NAM12 IS CLOSEST BUT
STILL IS NOT DOING A VERY GOOD JOB. AS FOR TONIGHT THROUGH THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT...A BLEND OF THE VARIOUS SHORT TERM MODELS WAS USED DUE
TO UNCERTAINTY...WITH SOME MASSAGING DONE TO MAKE THE RESULTING
FORECAST GRIDS LOOK REASONABLE. A WEAK ATMOSPHERIC WAVE WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND EVENTUALLY ACROSS KENTUCKY
AND THEN THE OHIO VALLEY THIS EVENING. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
BEGINNING TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE WAVE MOVES
THROUGH. OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WE CAN EXPECT TO SEE SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS...ALL WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL. ONCE THE SUN BEGINS TO SET...THE LOSS OF
HEATING...AND THE MOVEMENT OF THE WAVE OUT OF THE AREA INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY AND POINTS NORTH...SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL QUICKLY DECREASE IN
COVERAGE. THE OVERNIGHT HOURS MAY FEATURE SOME ISOLATED
ACTIVITY...BUT BY SUN RISE ON MONDAY THE AREA SHOULD BE FREE OF RAIN.
AFTER A LULL DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY AND AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT...A
FAIRLY WELL DEFINED COLD FRONT WILL FINALLY APPROACH THE AREA FROM
THE NORTHWEST...AS A LARGE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT PUSHES OFF TO
THE EAST OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SHOWERS AND STORMS FIRE ALONG
THIS FRONT AS IT MOVES ACROSS INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY. BY 12Z ON
TUESDAY WE SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS BEGIN MOVING INTO OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES. A FLOOD WATCH
IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING...AND WE WILL BE LEAVING THIS IN
PLACE SINCE IT IS BEGINNING TO RAIN A BIT MORE ACROSS THE AREA. THE
EVENING SHIFT WILL DO AS THEY SEE FIT WITH THE FLOOD WATCH.
TEMPERATURES DURING THE SHORT TERM WILL LIKELY BE ABOVE NORMAL DUE
TO THE PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MOISTURE FEED OFF THE GULF OF
MEXICO. TOMORROWS HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S...WITH LOWS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

THE MODELS START OUT IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS
THE US WITH AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL US. AT THE
SURFACE...THE BERMUDA HIGH IS RETREATING TO THE EAST AS THE UPPER
TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. A SURFACE LOW WILL BE LOCATED OVER
THE GREAT LAKES WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
WISCONSIN AND THEN CURVING ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. WARM MOIST
AIR IS IN PLACE OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY AND WILL RESULT IN THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME AIR MASS THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY
MOSTLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
MOVING TO THE EAST AND IT WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA ON
TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT MOVE TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY.
ON WEDNESDAY MORNING THE UPPER FLOW WILL BE VERY ZONAL ACROSS THE US
WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE WHICH WILL STAY IN PLACE
ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR WARM MOIST FLOW WITH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AIR MASS THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH FRIDAY. BY
SATURDAY MORNING A DEVELOPING SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL BE PUSHING A
COLD FRONT INTO THE BLUEGRASS. THIS WILL INCREASE THE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE FOR THE WEEKEND. BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD...THE TIMING OF THE SHORT WAVES BEGIN TO DIFFER AND
CONFIDENCE STARTS TO PLUMMET. PREFER THE SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION TO
THE GFS. FOR TEMPERATURES...STAYED CLOSE TO THE MODEL BLEND AS THE
MODELS WERE IN BETTER THAN AVERAGE AGREEMENT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 130 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

MVFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES THROUGH AROUND 13Z
ON MONDAY...AS RAIN AND FOG FROM SHOWER AND STORM ACTIVITY AFFECT THE
TAF AIRPORTS. THE SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF
QUICKLY AFTER 0Z THIS EVENING...WITH ISOLATED ACTIVITY AT BEST ACROSS
THE AREA AFTER 8Z. EASTERN KENTUCKY MIGHT EVEN BE RAIN FREE DURING
THE MORNING HOURS ON MONDAY...BEFORE SHOWERS AND STORMS BEGIN FIRING
UP AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON DURING PEAK HEATING AND AS YET ANOTHER
ATMOSPHERIC WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE REGION.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR KYZ044-050>052-
058>060-068-069-079-080-083>086-104-106-108-111-114-116.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...JJ
AVIATION...AR






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