Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KJKL 020530
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1230 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 911 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

UPDATED FORECAST TO TOSS IN SOME FOG THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
AS SOME LOCALLY DENSE FOG HAS DEVELOPED. WILL ALSO UPDATE THE ZFP
AND HWO TO INCLUDE A MENTION OF FOG. FREEZING RAIN THREAT APPEARS
TO BE MINIMAL AS BEST RETURNS WILL LIKELY OCCUR WELL AHEAD OF
AREAS WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE REACHING THE FREEZING MARK.
THUS...WILL LIMIT THE FORECAST TO JUST RAIN OR SNOW FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. AGAIN...ANY SNOW WILL BE MINOR AND HAVE
VERY LITTLE IMPACT. IN FACT...LATEST OBS ARE HANGING UP MUCH
HIGHER THAN EXPECTED TO THIS POINT...WITH MID TO UPPER 30S STILL
BE REPORTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA WITH LOW TO
MID 40S TO THE SOUTH.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 641 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

UPDATED TO REMOVE POPS THROUGH THE EVENING AS WE REMAIN DRY
SLOTTED. HOWEVER...THE COLD FRONT...CURRENTLY PUSHING SOUTH ACROSS
NORTHERN KENTUCKY WILL SLIP SOUTH LATER THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. AS THIS HAPPENS...A MID LEVEL WAVE WILL PUSH EAST WITH
MOISTURE RAPIDLY INCREASING ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE. THIS WILL MEAN
INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AS THE
FRONT SLIPS SOUTH...PRECIPITATION WILL END FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY HOLD ON THE
LONGEST IN SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY. ADJUSTED THE POPS TO REFLECT THE
HIGHEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES (CATEGORICAL) IN SOUTHEAST
KENTUCKY...TRAILING OFF TO JUST CHANCE IN THE NORTH...WHERE THE
FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH MUCH FASTER THIS EVENING. HRRR CONTINUES
TO SHOW A GOOD HANDLE ON PRECIPITATION COVERAGE THIS EVENING...SO
WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW IT FAIRLY CLOSELY WITH EXPECTED ARRIVAL OF
MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT. THE PATTERN WOULD SUGGEST
TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE A TOUGH TIME COOLING FAST ENOUGH TO ALLOW
FOR MUCH FREEZING RAIN AND WITH GROUND TEMPERATURES FAIRLY WARM
GOING INTO THINGS TONIGHT...NOT NEARLY AS CONCERNED ABOUT ICING
TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE HRRR WOULD SUGGEST
SOME PRECIPITATION RATES COULD GET FAIRLY GOOD LATER
TONIGHT...PERHAPS ALLOWING A QUICK CHANGEOVER TO SNOW IN THE
HEAVIER SHOWERS. THIS WOULD SEEM REASONABLE AND WILL HAVE TO WATCH
FOR THIS AS THIS COULD PUT DOWN A QUICK COATING OF SNOW IN SOME
AREAS...LEADING TO SOME SLICK ROADS. AT THE SAME
TIME...TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO FALL MUCH BELOW FREEZING
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...SO ANY SNOW MAY NOT LAST ON ROADS GIVEN THE
WARMTH TODAY. THUS...IT MAY JUST BE A VERY SHORT TERM ISSUE TO
CONTEND WITH OVERNIGHT FOR THOSE DRIVING ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY...ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY. WE MAY CONSIDER DOING A
SHORT TERM SPS IF THE HEAVIER SNOW BURSTS APPEAR TO BE MORE LIKELY
LATER ON. ALL FORECAST CHANGES HAVE BEEN INCORPORATED INTO THE
UPDATE WITH THE MAIN IMPACTS TO JUST HAVE LESS FREEZING RAIN
POTENTIAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

ZONAL FLOW WILL HOLD ON THROUGH THE NIGHT AS A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY
FINALLY SHIFTS EASTWARD AND OUT OF THE REGION BY 12Z MONDAY MORNING.
THIS WILL LEAD TO CONTINUED RAIN CHANCES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...POSSIBLY MIXING WITH SOME FREEZING RAIN AND EVENTUALLY
SNOW BEFORE TAPERING OFF MONDAY MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. AS ROAD
TEMPERATURES WARM THROUGHOUT TODAY...EXPECT THEM TO LAG BEHIND THE
AIR TEMPERATURE FALLING OVERNIGHT BY AT LEAST AN HOUR OR
TWO...THOUGH A FAIRLY STRONG WARM NOSE EXISTS BETWEEN 6 AND 12Z
ACROSS EASTERN KY. EXPECT THE FREEZING RAIN TO OCCUR AS THE RAIN IS
SWITCHING OVER TO SNOW...WITH SOME MIXING POSSIBLE THROUGH 12Z. MOST
OF THE IMPACTS WILL LIKELY BE OVER THE NORTHER HALF OF THE
CWA...WHERE TEMPS WILL BE THE COLDEST.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO TAKE
HOLD DURING THE DAY TOMORROW. DRY AIR WILL QUICKLY CUT OFF ANY
LINGERING PRECIP BY LATE TOMORROW MORNING ACROSS EASTERN KY...AND
ALLOW FOR SOME BREAKING UP OF THE ONGOING CLOUD COVER. UNDER LIGHT
WINDS...AND WITHOUT THE INFLUENCE OF THE SOUTHERLY FLOW WE HAD
TODAY...EXPECT TEMPS TO BE SLIGHTLY COOLER IN THE AFTERNOON...ONLY
REACHING THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE VERY SHORT
LIVED UNFORTUNATELY...AS THE HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY SHIFTS EAST OF
THE REGION BY 6Z TUESDAY...WINDS BECOME MORE SRLY ONCE MORE...AND WE
START TO SEE THE INFLUENCES OF OUR NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM.

CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT...AS A
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...FOLLOWING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING PATTERN AND SHIFTING
NORTH EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. WITH STRONG SRLY FLOW
PULLING IN DECENT GULF MOISTURE...EXPECT PRECIP TO BEGIN WELL AHEAD
OF THIS SYSTEM...WITH POPS EXPECTED IN EASTERN KY AS EARLY AS LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT. THOUGH SURFACE TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEAR OR BELOW
FREEZING BY TUESDAY MORNING...THIS STRONGER SRLY FLOW WILL INTRODUCE
AN IMPRESSIVELY LARGE WARM NOSE INTO THE LOWER LEVELS. ONCE
AGAIN...THIS LOOKS LIKE A GOOD SET UP FOR SOME FREEZING RAIN AT THE
ONSET THROUGH 12Z...EVENTUALLY CHANGING TO ALL RAIN AS TEMPS CONTINUE
TO WARM AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AN AMPLIFIED LONG WAVE
PATTERN CONTINUING TO RULE ACROSS THE CONUS THROUGH THE END OF THE
WORKWEEK...BEFORE DAMPENING A BIT NEXT WEEKEND. A POSITIVELY
TILTED TROUGH OUT WEST WILL RESULT IN DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW SETTING
UP ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A STOUT
BAROCLINIC ZONE TO MEANDER THROUGH THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...WITH MUCH WARMER AND WETTER AIR
BEING ADVECTED INTO THE REGION. ANOTHER SHARP COOL DOWN WILL
FOLLOW...WITH ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION GOING OVER TO SNOW
BEFORE ENDING THE WEEK MUCH COLDER AND DRIER.

DETAILS ON WHERE THE AXIS OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION SETS UP AND
LINGERS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO VARY OVER THE COMING DAYS. AS
SUCH...HAVE CONTINUED TO STICK TO A GENERAL BLEND OF THE
SOLUTIONS...INCLUDING THE QPF AMOUNTS. IN GENERAL...THE MODELS
CONTINUE TO PAINT 2 TO 3 INCHES OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA
BETWEEN TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY MORNING. THE BULK OF THIS
WILL FALL TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH HEAVIER
AMOUNTS STARTING OUT IN THE NORTHWEST...AND THEN EVENTUALLY
SPREADING TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH TIME. THIS WILL BE MORE THAN
ENOUGH TO CAUSE FLOODING CONCERNS AND WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT
THIS THREAT IN AN ONGOING HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK.

PRECIPITATION MAY START OUT AS A WINTRY MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND
RAIN FOR THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY...
BEFORE QUICKLY GOING OVER TO JUST RAIN AS MUCH WARMER AIR ADVECTS
INTO THE REGION. A SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT THROUGH DURING THE
DAY...WITH THE BETTER RAINFALL AMOUNTS LIKELY FALLING WEST OF I-75
AND NEAR THE I-64 CORRIDOR...AS SOME DOWNSLOPING MAY CUT INTO
TOTALS TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW AND VERY
GRADUALLY SLIDE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PROVIDING THE BULK OF THE HEAVIER RAINFALL.

MUCH COLDER AIR WILL MOVE IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY BEHIND
THE FRONT...WITH ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION GOING OVER TO
SNOW...WITH SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE. SOME OF THE MODELS
ARE INDICATING THAT THE COLD AIR WILL MAKE IT IN BEFORE THE DEEPER
MOISTURE EXITS...IN PARTICULAR THE ECMWF...RESULTING IN THE
POTENTIAL FOR A GOOD WINDOW OF HEAVY WET SNOW. THIS IS NOT A
TYPICAL OUTCOME FOR THIS PATTERN...BUT WILL STILL NEED TO BE
WATCHED IN THE COMING DAYS.

AFTER ENJOYING HIGHS IN THE 50S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...READINGS
WILL FALL BACK INTO THE 20S AND 30S FOR THURSDAY...WITH LOWS
BOTTOMING OUT NEAR THE 10 DEGREE MARK FRIDAY MORNING. HIGHS WILL
RETURN TO THE 40S FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1230 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

NEAR LIFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE AS RAIN SHOWERS PUSH SOUTH ACROSS
EASTERN KENTUCKY OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL ESSENTIALLY PUT CIGS AT OR
BELOW AIRPORT MINIMUMS THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT WITH LITTLE
IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED. VISIBILITIES WILL ALSO BE SHARPLY REDUCED
AT TIMES DUE TO THE PRECIPITATION AND SOME FOG THAT HAS BEGUN TO
FORM ACROSS THE AREA...MEANING THERE WILL ALSO BE A GOOD CHANCE
THAT VSBYS WILL FALL BELOW AIRPORT MINIMUMS AT TIMES. CIGS SHOULD
BREAK UP AND LIFT TOMORROW MORNING AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHIFTS
SOUTH OF THE AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS
BY MIDDAY TOMORROW.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KAS
SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...AR



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.