Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 211925
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
325 PM EDT Fri Jul 21 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 325 PM EDT FRI JUL 21 2017

Convection associated with the MCS that moved across OH affected
the northern part of our forecast area this morning, but the
convection quickly dissipated as it moved into the northern part
of our forecast area. A couple of outflows were associated with
this with one pushing into VA where more convection was triggered,
and a secondary residual boundary which remains across the
central part of the forecast area. It is still possible something
could develop along this residual boundary late this afternoon
and evening.

Satellite also shows an MCV across IN with convection beginning
to develop in west central IN, and there is yet another MCS across
WI. The HRRR is not showing much development this evening over
IN with the MCV, but latches onto the system now in WI.

Both the NAM and GFS point towards the possibility of convection
across the north early tonight, possibly associated with the
Indiana MCV. The ECMWF points towards a chance in the north closer
to dawn as the main MCS now in WI passes by to our north. For the
near term forecast have leaned towards the HRRR with support from
the ECMWF. This results in lower rain chances for tonight than
either the GFS or NAM MOS.

As we move into Saturday another steamy day is on tap with maximum
forecasts mostly in the lower 90s and heat indices near 100. How
much convection we see on Saturday is still in question and
followed the standard model blend for rain chances Saturday.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 325 PM EDT FRI JUL 21 2017

The period begins with a upper level short wave trough and
associated surface low pushing SSE across the northern Great
Lakes. This will progress on into the northeastern U.S. early next
week, with the associated cold front moving across our area on
Monday. At this point it appears the best chance for showers and
storms will be Sunday afternoon even though the front won`t clear
the area until Monday. The front looks to stall to our south next
week. This will result in temperatures closer to normal, but with
at least a small chance of daily showers and storms especially in
the southern part of the forecast area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 139 PM EDT FRI JUL 21 2017

The showers and storms that moved into the northern part of the
forecast area this morning quickly dissipated as they moved
southeast further into southeast KY. The outflow boundary
associated with the storms has pushed into VA. Storms have
developed along this boundary. While an isolated storm cannot be
ruled out in eastern KY this afternoon most storms will remain
east or southeast of our area for the remainder of the day.

Another thunderstorm complex is expected to pass to the north of
the forecast area late tonight into early Saturday. It is possible
some of this activity could affect the northern part of the
forecast area, but it is too uncertain to include in any TAFs,
though will carry VCTS for SYM and SJS for Saturday morning.

VFR conditions will continue to prevail across the area although
some haze will be possible in a few spots this afternoon. Similar
to last night, some fog should develop tonight, with SME and LOZ
the sites expected to be affected.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SBH
LONG TERM...SBH
AVIATION...SBH


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