Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 251918
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
318 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 318 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

AFTER THE PASSAGE OF A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE CWA THIS
MORNING...WINDS HAVE OBTAINED A MORE SW HEADING WITH DECENT MIXING
RESULTING IN GUSTS BETWEEN 15 AND 25KTS. MEANWHILE...THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT HAS STALLED OUT JUST NORTH OF THE OHIO
RIVER...CONNECTED TO ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY SITTING
OVER NORTHERN TX. THIS SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT TO THE NE
THROUGH THIS EVENING...FOLLOWING THE OHIO RIVER AND KEEPING THE
COLD FRONT NEARLY STATIONARY. THIS WILL BE IN CONJUNCTION WITH A
STRONG UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE CENTRAL
CONUS AROUND THIS SAME TIME. IT WON/T BE UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT THAT
THE LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL PUSH THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
AND COLD FRONT FAR ENOUGH EAST TO AFFECT THE CWA.

MOST OF THE MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE LOCATED ALONG AND
BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF EASTERN KY AFTER
6Z AND CONTINUING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. STILL EXPECTING THE BEST
INSTABILITY AND HEAVIEST RAIN ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE...WITH
CHANCES FOR THUNDER EXPECTED INTO THE DAY TOMORROW. AFTER THE COLD
FRONT PASSES THROUGH...BETWEEN 12 AND 18Z...A STRONG PULL OF
COLDER NW AIR WILL STREAM IN...QUICKLY DROPPING NEAR SURFACE TEMPS
AND CREATING A STRONG LLVL INVERSION. THIS WILL CREATE A LOSS OF
INSTABILITY AND LIKELY PREVENT ANY FURTHER THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY AS THE UPPER LEVELS BEGIN TO COOL
THROUGH THE EVENING AS WELL. DROPPED MENTION OF THUNDER AS TEMPS
DROPPED THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON...WITH COMPLETE LOSS OF
INSTABILITY BY 21Z. WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING SO QUICKLY...LOW TO
MID 30S CAN BE EXPECTED BY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR ANY
LINGERING MOISTURE IN THE AREA TO POTENTIALLY CHANGE OVER TO A MIX
OF RAIN AND WET SNOW. THIS IDEA HAS CHANGED LITTLE FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGES...AND SHOULD BE MINIMAL ENOUGH TO CAUSE
LITTLE TO NO IMPACTS. GROUND TEMPS WILL STILL BE WARM ENOUGH TO
PREVENT ANY STICKING TO SURFACES THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

AT THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD THE EASTERN U.S. TROUGH
WILL BE DEEPENING AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE UNDERWAY ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. COLD AIR WILL
CONTINUE TO POUR INTO THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...WITH 85H
TEMPERATURES FALLING TO BETWEEN -10 TO -14 C BY 12Z SATURDAY. LOW
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY MORNING WILL BE DEPENDENT ON SKY COVER. AT
THIS TIME IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER
LINGERING FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT LOWS INTO THE MID AND UPPER 20S STILL
LOOK GOOD. ANY LINGERING PRECIPITATION FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN
THE FORM OF FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL NOSE ITS WAY INTO THE OH VALLEY ON SATURDAY...AND CLEARING
SKIES WILL ALLOW FOR BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING SATURDAY NIGHT...
ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN VALLEYS WHERE DECOUPLING WILL OCCUR.

BY SUNDAY NIGHT A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING THE
AREA...BRINGING ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN. THERE WILL BE LITTLE IMPACT
ON TEMPERATURES WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE. IN FACT NEXT WEEK WILL
SEE A SIGNIFICANT WARM UP AS THE LONG WAVE TROUGH IN THE EASTERN
U.S. SHIFTS EAST AND THE MEAN FLOW DEAMPLIFIES OVER OUR REGION. A
SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR RAIN FOR THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 144 PM EDT WED MAR 25 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD ON ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH
TONIGHT. SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS OF AROUND 10 TO 15 KTS...AND
GUSTS OF 15 TO 25 KTS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY
WITH STRONG MIXING IN PLACE. THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH TOWARDS DUSK
WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY. EXPECT
OCCASIONAL CEILINGS OF 4 TO 5K FEET AGL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
LOWER THRESHOLDS LIKELY HOLDING OFF UNTIL AFTER 12Z THU. AT THIS
POINT...RAIN SHOWERS WILL BEGIN PUSHING INTO THE REGION. BEST
CHANCES WILL LIKELY BE AFTER 12Z THU AS WELL...SO LEFT OUT OF TAFS
UNTIL THIS TIME. SOME THUNDER MAY ACCOMPANY THE -SHRA...ESPECIALLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON...THOUGH CONFIDENCE ON THIS MATERIALIZING AND
WHERE IS STILL SOMEWHAT LOW.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...SBH
AVIATION...JMW


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