Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 271201 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
801 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 801 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

FRESHENED UP THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS TO JIVE BETTER
WITH THE CURRENT CONDITIONS...OTHERWISE THE FORECAST REMAINS ON
TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

SOME PESKY CU HAVE MOVED INTO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA SO HAVE BUMPED UP SKY COVER TO ACCOUNT FOR THE CLOUD
COVER. OTHERWISE...TRICKY PART OF THE FORECAST TONIGHT IS THE LOW
TEMPS. SOME SPOTS ARE ALREADY IN THE LOW 50S SO BUMPED THE LOWS
DOWN 1-2 DEGREES...WITH THE COLDEST SPOTS FORECAST TO DIP INTO
THE UPPER 40S.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR
THE SHORT TERM. AT UPPER LEVELS...THE TROUGH WILL FINALLY PUSH EWD
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE SFC RIDGE FOLLOWING SUITE BY LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. AS THE SFC HIGH SLIDES
EAST...MID LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF A
DEVELOPING SHORTWAVE IN THE NRN PLAINS. ADDITIONALLY...THE LL
RETURN FLOW FROM THE GULF WILL BEGIN USHERING IN 60 DEGREE DEW
POINTS AND WARMER TEMPS...MAKING THINGS FEEL A BIT MORE HUMID BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL BUT WILL FINALLY RETURN TO THE LOWER 80S ON FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

THE MODELS REMAIN IN ONLY DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST. A STRONG PACIFIC NORTHWEST SYSTEM WILL
BE MOVING ONSHORE...HELPING TO PIVOT THE RIDGE AXIS FROM THE
ROCKIES TO THE PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY
THE WEEKEND. IN THE EAST...A SHORT WAVE WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY REGION...WITH ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY
TO CONTEND WITH ALONG THE GULF STATES.

THE ECMWF AND GFS REMAIN AT ODDS WITH EACH OTHER WITH REGARDS TO
THE EVOLUTION OF THE PATTERN IN THE EAST. THE ECMWF REMAINS SLOWER
AND MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE NORTHERN SHORT WAVE...WHILE WEAKER IN
THE SOUTH. THIS ALLOWS FOR MORE DECISIVE RIDGING TO BUILD IN
ACROSS THE AREA AFTER TUESDAY. THE GFS IS FASTER AND WEAKER WITH
THE NORTHERN WAVE...WHILE STRONGER WITH THE SOUTHERN
WAVE...KEEPING MORE TROUGHINESS IN ACROSS THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO
VALLEYS INITIALLY...BEFORE THEN DEPICTING SOME INFLUENCE FROM
ERIKA BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY AMONGST THE MODELS AND PARTICULARLY THE
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FOR NEXT WEEK...A CONSERVATIVE BLEND OF THE
GUIDANCE WAS USED. SMALL CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
RETURN TO THE FORECAST FROM SATURDAY ONWARD...WITH THE BEST
OVERALL CHANCE OCCURRING ON SUNDAY...WHEN MORE FORCING WILL BE IN
PLACE. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S AND LOWS IN
THE LOW TO MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 801 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

IFR OR WORSE FOG WILL BE LIFTING OUT IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL THEN RETURN...BESIDES SOME SCATTERED STRATOCU IN
THE 4-6K FEET AGL RANGE EXPECTED TO FORM DURING THE DAY. PATCHY
RIVER VALLEY FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT BETWEEN 06
AND 12Z...BUT SHOULD STEER CLEAR OF THE TAF SITES. WINDS WILL
AVERAGE AT AROUND 5 KTS OR LESS THROUGH PERIOD AS WELL.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...JVM
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN



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