Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 242052
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
352 PM EST WED DEC 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 352 PM EST WED DEC 24 2014

SURFACE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY ALIGNED FROM FLEMINGSBURG TO BOONEVILLE
TO BARBOURVILLE. A SOLID LINE OF INTENSE SHOWERS HAS FORMED ALONG THE
BOUNDARY...WITH WIND GUSTS RANGING FROM 35 TO 50 MPH WITHIN THE LINE
FOR MOST LOCATIONS. MOST OF THESE WINDS ARE LASTING LESS THAN 10
MINUTES BEFORE DIMINISHING. WILL LET THE CURRENT WIND ADVISORY
HEADLINES RIDE THROUGH THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR AT
LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER. THE LINE WILL EXIT EASTERN KENTUCKY
BY AROUND 6 PM.

THERE WILL BE A LULL IN THE ACTION THIS EVENING...BEFORE THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH AND PROVIDES A RENEWED...BUT OVERALL
SMALLER CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. ICE CONTINUES TO LOOK
MARGINAL ALOFT...AND THE LOW LEVELS ARE FORECAST TO NOT COOL OFF
QUITE ENOUGH FOR SNOW...SO WILL ONLY MAINTAIN A SMALL CHANCE FOR
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 2500 FEET.

CLOUDS WILL LINGER AROUND THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF CHRISTMAS
DAY...BEFORE BREAKING UP FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST IN THE
AFTERNOON...AS RIDGING BUILDS IN. THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE MOSTLY
CLEAR...WITH VALLEYS LIKELY DIPPING INTO THE MID 20S AT LEAST.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM EST WED DEC 24 2014

MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH DY4...SUNDAY. THEREAFTER
MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE ENOUGH THAT CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST WANES
CONSIDERABLY THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD. ONE TREND MODELS
DO APPEAR TO AGREE ON HOWEVER IS AN INCREASINGLY AMPLIFIED UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN. MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MEAN...
GENERALLY DEEP AND BROAD WESTERN CONUS TOUGH WHICH OPENS UP INTO A
SOUTHWEST FLOW REGIME ALOFT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY REGION. MODELS
ADVERTISE A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES KICKING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST...
AND/OR BAJA. IF CORRECT THIS SHOULD KEEP OUR WEATHER GENERALLY
UNSETTLED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...AFTER A VERY WARM START TO THE EXTENDED WE
SHOULD EXPECT A GRADUALLY COLDER PATTERN WITH TIME. THIS COMBINED
WITH AN INCREASINGLY ACTIVE SOUTHERN STREAM MAY SET US UP FOR SOME
INTERESTING WEATHER BEFORE OR BY THE FIRST OF THE YEAR...BUT AGAIN
OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS LOW AFTER DY4. OUR FIRST SYSTEM WILL BE
WARM...WITH SHOWERS OVERSPREADING THE AREA AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH LATE THIS WEEKEND. THEREAFTER OUR WEATHER BECOME MORE
UNCERTAIN. THE 0Z ECMWF...WITH SOME SUPPORT FROM THE CANADIAN
SUGGESTS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA...KEEPING OUR WEATHER UNSETTLED THROUGH MONDAY. BUT
WHAT HAD BEEN A VERY CONSISTENT ECMWF HAS NOW COME IN WITH A FASTER
SECONDARY WAVE FOR MONDAY...SIMILAR TO THE GFS BUT NOT NEARLY AS
PROGRESSIVE. BOTTOM LINE IS THAT CONFIDENCE IS LOW THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED...WITH A MODEL BLEND HANGING ONTO SOME
LOWS POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD AND GRADUALLY COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 158 PM EST WED DEC 24 2014

VFR CONDITIONS OUT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY CRASH TO MVFR
AND EVENTUALLY IFR FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE REST OF THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH A 2-3 HOUR PERIOD OF SHOWERS. SUSTAINED SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KTS...WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS...WILL TURN
TO THE WEST AT 10 TO 25 KTS...WITH GUSTS IN THE 25 TO KTS RANGE.
THESE HIGHER WINDS WILL LAST AN HOUR OR SO BEFORE THE GUSTS SETTLE
BACK DOWN TO AROUND 20 KTS THROUGH THIS EVENING. ONCE THE FRONTAL
SHOWERS EXIT OFF TO THE EAST THIS EVENING...SOME LIGHTER PRECIPTATION
WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. WSW WINDS WILL DIMINISH TOWARDS
DAWN...WITH IFR CEILINGS LIKELY IMPROVING TOWARDS MVFR AS WELL.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR KYZ044-050>052-
058>060-068-069-088-104-106>120.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...RAY
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN





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