Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 241115 AAA

National Weather Service Jackson KY
715 AM EDT Mon Apr 24 2017

Issued at 700 AM EDT MON APR 24 2017

Updated the forecast in the near term to fine tune the QPF and
PoPs. Also tweaked the T and Td grids per the latest obs and
trends. These have been sent to the NDFD and web servers.


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 405 AM EDT MON APR 24 2017

07z sfc analysis shows a deep and stacked area of low pressure
passing off to the southeast. Up until this point, this low has
been pumping in wave after wave of showers into eastern Kentucky.
Now just a few light ones remain and primarily just targeting the
far east near the Virginia and West Virginia border. With the
end of the significant rain have decided to drop the Flood Watch,
though local areas of high water remain - particularly near the
Cumberland and Kentucky Rivers where flood warnings or advisories
are currently in effect. Skies are mostly cloudy throughout the
area early this morning while winds continue from the northeast to
east at 5 to 10 mph. Temperatures through the area are rather
uniform, generally from 50 to 55 degrees while dewpoints vary from
the mid 40s northwest to the low 50s for much of the rest of the

The models are once again in excellent agreement aloft through the
short term. They all depict a closed and semi-cutoff low dropping
through the Deep South and then east to the Atlantic Coast today.
As this low moves further away from Kentucky heights will rebound
and attention will shift to the flow pattern to the northwest.
This mid level pattern will be in the process of developing a
large trough over the Southern Rockies on Tuesday. Meanwhile, the
closed low will be continuing its trek up the east coast -
located over Cape Hatteras at this time. Given the good model
agreement will favor a blended/consensus solution along with a
lean toward the high res HRRR early on.

Sensible weather will feature a cloudy and still rather cool day
across eastern Kentucky as most places dry out. A few lingering
showers will continue to affect the area - particularly east but
just small amounts of QPF are expected. Plenty of low level
moisture will continue to keep skies rather cloudy tonight and
into Tuesday which will limit the temperature drop off tonight but
should not impact the rebound much on Tuesday as highs will be in
the mid to upper 70s with a return of partial sunshine.

Used the CONSShort and ShortBlend guidance to start off the grids
through the short term. Did not have to make much adjustment to
temperatures but did nudge dewpoints down a few degrees this
afternoon and again Tuesday afternoon. Also made some minor
tweaks to the PoPs and QPF grids to limit their range and
coverage today.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 335 AM EDT MON APR 24 2017

Very mild air will build into the region for the middle of the
week as shortwave ridging pushes east across the region. A
shortwave trough will then drive a cold front across the area on
Thursday. Models are tending towards a slightly more active front
on Thursday, so confidence is increasing for at least some
scattered showers and storms with the front passage. In fact,
0-6km shear magnitude is 40 knots. This coupled with some surface
instability will lead to some potentially damaging wind gusts.
Instability and mid level lapse rates not impressive enough to
support updrafts capable of hail, so it looks like any threat from
storms would be limited to damaging wind gusts. Dry weather would
return by late Thursday evening. However, a warm front will lift
north across the area Friday and Friday night and bring more
chances of showers and storms. Some model differences emerge by
Friday, but depending on how things work out, more strong to
severe storms would be possible. The warm front exits to the north
by early Saturday morning with dry weather returning for the
weekend. In the wake of the front, summer-like weather will surge
north across the area with highs well into the mid to upper 80s on
Saturday and Sunday. As upper levels amplify with a large ridge
developing over the eastern US, the warm weather may continue into
the following week. However, at some point, a cold front will work
into the Ohio river valley and interact with the warm and moist
air to provide another unsettled period sometime early next week.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)

Cigs will bounce between low end MVFR and IFR through the day, for
most locations - along with a few brief pockets of VFR moving
through. Look for shower activity to be mainly light and very
isolated today having little impact on the TAF sites. For tonight,
cigs could be a bit trickier with most guidance keeping them MVFR
or higher, but also a potential for some light fog to develop
rather than stratus. Winds will be generally out of the northeast
to east at 5 to 10 kts through Tuesday morning.




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