Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000
FXUS63 KJKL 262127
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
427 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 410 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

AS OF MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING EAST OF
THE REGION INTO THE DEVELOPING DEEP TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS.
MEANWHILE THE CLIPPER SYSTEM THAT MOVED ACROSS THE AREA LAST NIGHT
INTO THIS MORNING IS BEGINNING TO REORGANIZE INTO A DEEP
NOR`EASTER/BLIZZARD EAST OF THE MID ATLANTIC STATES. THE REGION WILL
REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NW ALOFT BETWEEN THE DEEPENING TROUGH
ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND RIDGING EXTENDING FROM MEXICO INTO THE
ROCKIES. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALSO GRADUALLY BUILD INTO THE
GREAT LAKES AND LOWER OH VALLEY REGION ONCE THE CLIPPER SFC LOW
APPROACHING FROM THE OH VALLEY DEPARTS ON TUESDAY.

THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO WV WILL TAKE THE STEADIER SNOW WITH
IT. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA WITH UPSLOPE
FLOW AND SATURATION IN THE LOW CLOUDS TO COLDER THAN -8C...USUALLY
ENOUGH FOR SMALL SNOWFLAKES OF LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES. THE CLIPPER
SYSTEM WILL TRACK TO OUR SW FROM WESTERN KY TO THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS. THIS TRACK WILL FAVOR LOCATIONS ACROSS THE SW PART OF
THE AREA FOR LIGHT SNOW OR SCATTERED SNOW SHOWER CHANCES...ALTHOUGH
MODEL TIMEHEIGHT SECTIONS FORM THE NAM AND GFS MODELS DO HAVE A
WINDOW OF RATHER DEEP MOISTURE AND RATHER WEAK OMEGA NEAR 12Z...OR 7
AM ON TUESDAY. SNOW SHOWER CHANCES WILL REMAIN NEAR THE VA BORDER ON
THE UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THIS EVENING...WITH CHANCES FOR SNOW INCREASING
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE AREA THROUGH THE EVENING AND INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. DAYTIME HEATING AND COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL
LEAD TO A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES ON TUESDAY
AND UNTIL THE FLOW BECOMES MORE NORTHERLY LATE TUE INTO TUESDAY
EVENING. QPF WITH THIS WILL BE LIGHT WITH ANY ACCUMULATIONS OF
A HALF AN INCH OR LESS ON AVERAGE WHERE SNOW DOES OCCUR. AN SPS WAS
REISSUED TO HIGHLIGHT THE LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL AND
REFREEZE POTENTIAL THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE COLDEST IN THE NORTH AND EAST WHERE 850 MB TEMPS
ARE PROGGED TO BE COLDEST. WE HAVE UNDERCUT MOST GUIDANCE TEMPS ON
AVERAGE ON TUESDAY AS THERE WILL BE SNOW ON THE GROUND IN SOME AREAS
AND MODELS WERE GENERALLY TOO WARM WITH TEMPS TODAY. GRADUAL CLEARING
SHOULD OCCUR FROM LATE TUE INTO TUE NIGHT AND WITH A DRY AIRMASS
PROGGED AND SNOW COVER LIKELY REMAINING IN SOME AREAS...VALLEYS
SHOULD FALL WELL INTO THE TEENS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

THE EXTENDED PERIOD BEGINS WITH A TROUGH EXITING TO OUR EAST AS SHORTWAVE
RIDGING BUILDS INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY. THIS RIDGING SHOULD PROVIDE A
TEMPORARY RELIEF OF PRECIP WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY
MORNING. BY 12Z THURSDAY... BOTH GFS/ECMWF SHOW A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM CLIPPING NORTHERN KENTUCKY AND LIFTING NEWD FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND... WITH THE GFS PROVIDING MORE SUPPORT
FOR THE MORE ROBUST ECMWF SOLUTION. ANOTHER LULL IN PRECIP FOLLOWS
UNTIL SUNDAY MORNING. AT THAT POINT... MODELS DEPICT A LARGE CLOSED
LOW IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM...OPENING UP AND SPILLING ITS ENERGY EAST
INTO THE FLOW RIDGING OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THE MODELS CONTINUE
TO SHOW SOME CONNECTION TO THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS WHICH
WOULD CERTAINLY MAKE THINGS MORE INTERESTING FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND IF THAT PANS OUT. FOR NOW... WILL SHOW ONLY LIMITED
INTERACTION AND EASE INTO A MORE DYNAMIC SCENARIO GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY AND LACK OF MODEL RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WITH THIS PART
OF THE FORECAST.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE THE ENDING OF THE UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES IN THE FAR EAST EARLY WENDNESDAY MORNING WITH SOME
SUNSHINE RETURNING. THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS THE
AREA FRIDAY MORNING. ONLY A BRIEF WINDOW FOR DRYING CAN BE EXPECTED
FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE POTENTIAL FOR
MAINLY SNOW ARRIVES FROMT THE SOUTHWEST IN FAST LOW AND MID LEVEL
FLOW RIDING ALONG A WEST TO EAST ARCTIC BOUNDARY LYING OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY. THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ON THROUGH KENTUCKY BY
MONDAY MORNING WITH SNOW CHANCES CONTINUING...MAINLY IN THE
SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE CWA. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE TO BE CLOSELY
MONITORED AS MODELS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE PHASING OF
THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY AS WELL AS HOW QUICKLY THE
COLD AIR SETTLES INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 109 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

EXPECT VARYING CIGS THROUGH THE EVENING AND INTO TONIGHT AS SOME
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. WITH
THIS...ACTIVITY...CIGS WILL GENERALLY BE AT AIRFIELD MINS OR JUST
ABOVE FOR THE TAF SITES. VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS WILL BE SHORT IN
DURATION DUE TO THE SHOWERY NATURE OF THE SNOW SHOWERS THIS EVENING.
A BRIEF BREAK IN THE ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR AROUND 00Z THROUGH 06Z
TONIGHT BEFORE THE NEXT SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH AND BRINGS ANOTHER
ROUND OF SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE WEST AND NORTHWEST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
SOME GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS AT TIMES THROUGH THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...JVM
AVIATION...JVM/SHALLENBERGER






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