Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 241834

National Weather Service Jackson KY
234 PM EDT Sat Jun 24 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 234 PM EDT SAT JUN 24 2017

Cooler and drier air continues to invade the region in the wake of
the cold frontal passage last night. A rather extensive field of
fair weather cumulus is evident on satellite across the OH valley
and most of eastern KY with some cirrus streaming in from the
southwest. The cumulus field will diminish this evening, and
mostly clear skies will prevail overnight with temperatures
falling into the 50s. Some fog will form tonight, but it should be
confined to the river valleys. On Sunday dewpoints will continue
to fall reaching the upper 40s and lower 50s, thus providing for
quite comfortable conditions with maximum temperatures in the
middle to upper 70s. A reinforcing shot of cool air will occur
Sunday night as another cold front moves across the area. There
will be very little moisture associated with this, with little or
no increase in cloud cover and no precipitation expected.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 343 AM EDT SAT JUN 24 2017

Models remain in good agreement with a area of Canadian high
pressure building southeast toward the region and remaining in
control of the sensible weather through midweek. This will lead to
fair weather but upper level trough will also dig across the area.
This trough will lead to below normal temperatures, as NAEFS and
ECMWF ensembles standardized anomalies shows significant signals
for below normal temperatures at multiple levels. Given this high
temperatures will top out on the low to mid 70s through Tuesday
and low temperatures will drop into the lower to mid 50s through
Wednesday morning. Now there have been some inconsistencies in the
models on moisture for Tuesday morning and therefore kept with the
drier model blend for now.

The trough does pull east and height rises will ensue across the
region. This will lead to warming temperatures and increases in
moisture, as we see return flow around the aforementioned surface
high now east of eastern KY. Therefore by the end of the period
shower and thunderstorm chances increase amid warming
temperatures, with highs in the low to mid 80s and increased
instability with MUCAPE in the 500 to 1000 J/kg range. The biggest
issue here will be does a surface front make it south or is this
more of a diurnally driven/orographic lift situation. Given the
lack of consistency here kept the blend approach which may be too
high given the synoptic frontal boundary reflection from the
Canadian model. However, blended POPs still remain chance and was
comfortable with that at this stage of the forecast process.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)

Cooler and drier air has invaded the region after the passage of a
cold front last night. Fair weather cumulus and some cirrus will
be the rule today, with VFR conditions expected. The cumulus
should mostly be scattered but some broken ceilings around 3500
feet are possible especially across the northern part of the
forecast area. The cumulus will diminish this evening. Some fog is
forecast to form in the river valleys late tonight but is not
expected to affect the TAF sites. VFR conditions will prevail
again on Sunday.




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