Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 222009
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
309 PM EST Thu Feb 22 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1111 AM EST THU FEB 22 2018

Most showers have dissipated (a bit faster than was forecast),
and the POP through the afternoon hours has been adjusted
downward.

UPDATE Issued at 908 AM EST THU FEB 22 2018

Fine tuned the POP over the next few hours based on latest radar
trends. This entailed extending a higher POP a bit further east.

UPDATE Issued at 728 AM EST THU FEB 22 2018

A line of moderate to heavy showers is working its way east this
morning. The more intense cores have been putting down a half
inch of rainfall in less than 30 minutes. Northwestern Fleming
County has seen more sustained rainfall overnight, and have
included a Flood Warning for this area through the mid-morning.
Once these showers move out this morning, activity will be more
spotty this afternoon and into tonight. Have freshened up the POP
and temperature trends through the rest of this morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 333 AM EST THU FEB 22 2018

The latest surface map features a stationary frontal boundary
aligned from central Virginia southwest to the Tennessee/Kentucky
border and then into Mississippi and Louisiana. Aloft, an
amplified pattern remains in place, with an unseasonably strong
ridge across the western Atlantic, and troughing across the West.
This is allowing for deep southwest flow to stream in across the
Mississippi Valley.

Showers have been ongoing across the western two thirds of
Kentucky during the overnight hours, with locations mainly along
and north of I-64 seeing the more sustained precipitation over
the past few hours. Temperatures reflect the stalled frontal
boundary in the vicinity of the area, with mid to upper 40s being
reported north of I-64, and lower 60s noted near the Tennessee
border to the south.

Expect showers to gradually shift southeast with time through this
morning, as a surface wave makes it way northeast along the
boundary, along with a passing short wave trough traversing the
Ohio Valley aloft, helping to lend some upper level support. The
better rainfall totals will be favored across the Bluegrass, with
another half inch or so on top of what falls through 12z this
morning. This should not be enough to cause much in the way of
problems besides some full ditches and moderate response on
creeks and streams.

A relative lull in the activity looks to occur tonight, before
another surface wave tracks along the boundary into Friday. Again,
higher POPs and QPF will be favored to our northwest; however, the
forcing will not be as strong, so QPF does not look to be
excessive. As such, will continue to roll with the ESF, and look
towards this weekend for the potentially excessive rainfall.

Temperatures will be cooler today, with highs ranging from the
lower 50s in the north, to around 70 in the far south. On Friday,
readings will be back towards record territory once again, with
mid to upper 70s expected.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 333 AM EST THU FEB 22 2018

The first part of the extended will feature multiple rounds of
rainfall, which could be heavy at times, especially Saturday night
into Sunday. We may even see a few thunderstorms across the area
Saturday and Saturday night, as a cold front moves through the
region. The rain will last through Sunday morning, before tapering
off and exiting the area Sunday afternoon and evening. After a
period of dry weather Sunday night through Tuesday night, another
round of rain will be possible Wednesday and Thursday, as an area of
low pressure moves across the region.

Temperatures during the period will be cooler than what we`ve seen
the past few days, but should still be above normal each day and
night. The warmest days will be Saturday and Sunday, when day time
highs are forecast to max out from the upper 60s to lower 70s and
the low to mid 60s respectively. The coolest days should be Tuesday
and Wednesday, when highs should top out from the upper 50s to lower
60s across the area.  Nightly lows will vary from the mid to upper
50s Friday night to the mid to upper 30s Monday night.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 310 PM EST THU FEB 22 2018

A frontal boundary was laid out across extreme southeast KY at the
start of the period. Conditions south of the front (on the warm
side) were generally VFR, while most places north of the front (on
the cold side) were IFR or worse. There were a few light showers
in the area as well.

The front will show an overall northward drift tonight, making its
way completely north of the forecast area by around 13Z.
Conditions should improve with passage of the front as it heads
north, with mainly VFR expected during the day Friday. While there
is good confidence in the overall scenario, the specific timing
for improvement at individual TAF sites is fairly low confidence.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...HAL


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