Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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539
FXUS63 KJKL 082015
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
315 PM EST Thu Dec 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 315 PM EST THU DEC 8 2016

Surface analysis reveals the strong Canadian high pressure remains
parked across the central portion of the country and we remain in
the middle across eastern KY. This has led to tighter isobars
and consequently we have seen west to WNW flow with gusts 15 to
20 knots. Also we have seen some CU develop this afternoon given
decent low level lapse rate and weak moisture at around the 850mb
level. The better coverage of Stratocu is placed to our north and
this will continue to spread SE through the evening and
overnight. Model soundings would suggest we also manage to get
some moisture into the dendritic growth zone and this will aid in
the potential for some flurries. Also given the better cloud cover
went really close to previous in trying to show overall higher
numbers low temp wise in the east and lower values across the
Bluegrass and Lake Cumberland region. Goes without saying that
Black Mountain will likely be the big winner with lower teens.

Friday the surface high pressure is expected to build east and
this will ease the pressure gradient across the region. Also upper
level winds will reduce overtime and lead to little influence from
afternoon mixing. Cold air will be maximized early Friday as 850mb
temps will be between -10 to -12C, and this will lead to one of
the coldest afternoons of the season with most not making it above
the freezing level. While 850mb temps begin to warm Friday night
the surface high will crest across the region. This will lead to
another night of teens and even lower teens for many including the
valley spots. The only issue would be some mid level clouds and
how they could lead to a slight dampening of temps. That said was
not willing to go much lower than the lowest COOP MOS number which
came in at 14 degrees.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 315 PM EST THU DEC 8 2016

availiable shortly

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1225 PM EST THU DEC 8 2016

Much of the lower deck from this morning has scattered out and now
we are left with mostly high clouds across eastern KY. While we
have returned to VFR this afternoon Vis Sat and Obs are showing a
area of low MVFR building SE toward the region. These clouds will
stream in through evening and overnight and some snow
showers/flurries will also be possible. We have seen winds
increase out of the west at around 7 to 10 knots this hour and
would expect that to continue through the afternoon. Gusts will
generally be around 15 to 20 knots. These winds are still expected
to reduce through the evening.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DJ
LONG TERM...GREIF
AVIATION...DJ



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