Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 230643 AAA

National Weather Service Jackson KY
143 AM EST Fri Feb 23 2018

Issued at 143 AM EST FRI FEB 23 2018

Increased the dense fog a bit more through the overnight, as skies
have partially cleared along and south of the Hal Rogers Parkway
and Highway 80 corridors. Surface winds will engage closer towards
dawn, as a warm front develops and lifts north of our area, which
should mix out the dense fog. Freshened up the hourly temperatures
through the rest of the night. Showers will threaten the Bluegrass
towards dawn, but precipitation rates should be weaker at that
point. Updates have been sent.

UPDATE Issued at 1028 PM EST THU FEB 22 2018

Issued an update to the forecast to input the latest observations
and trend them through the night. The forecast remains largely on
track and so a new ZFP will not be needed. Beefed up the mention
of fog and included it in the HWO. This will only be the case
through the first part of tonight as once the warm front lifts
north the fog over much of the area will dissipate.

UPDATE Issued at 810 PM EST THU FEB 22 2018

Issued an update to the forecast to input the latest observations
and trend them into the overnight hours. Temps should slowly be on
the rise through the night as warmer air slowly shifts north into
the area. As well, the last of the showers have shifted off to the
east and updated the pops to put in a break in the precip until
later tonight when the boundary shifts east into the area bringing
a round of rain to mainly the northwestern Bluegrass. As well,
with a saturated boundary layer, some fog is possible tonight
along the ridges. The valleys will likely see a low ceiling
instead. A new zfp was required for this update.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 458 PM EST THU FEB 22 2018

A frontal boundary was laid out across the southern part of the
forecast area this afternoon. Temperatures were as mild as the 70s
south of the front, but only in the 40s north of I-64 on the cold
side of the boundary. A few light showers lingered, but most of
the region was precip free.

Models are in relatively good agreement for at least the first
couple of forecast periods. An impulse (evidences by precip over
AR) will move along the front and pull it northward tonight. It
should make it entirely north of the JKL forecast area Friday
morning. The most significant precip associated with the wave
should stay to our north and northwest tonight. However, aside
from the continuation of our scattered showers, some of the precip
associated with the wave will probably affect our northwest
counties for a while late tonight into Friday morning, and a
likely POP has been used for this.

We should emerge into another generally lull in precip on Friday,
and also see some breaks in the clouds. Being on the warm side of
the front, this should allow for unseasonably mild highs in the
70s across the area.

On Friday night the frontal boundary may settle slightly further
south into our area for a time (in the wake of the passing
wave/impulse). A stronger low pressure system will take shape
over the plains and result in increasing flow off the Gulf. With
the front in our area, this will bring another increase in the
POP, but once again the most significant rain should be further to
the north and northwest.

In terms of rainfall amounts, models have not been consistent, but
do suggest that we will not see enough to cause hydro problems
through Friday night. That being the case, no Flood Watch has
been issued. Problems in the long term period can`t be ruled out
yet, and and ESF product has been reissued for the northern part
of the forecast area to address this.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 458 PM EST THU FEB 22 2018

Saturday will continue to feature mild conditions with shortwave
energy departing in the morning with a brief lull in precipitation
expected. However, another vort max will cross northern Kentucky
by the afternoon, with additional rain chances across the area.
Will maintain the rather high pops given the moist environment for
late February. A few thunderstorms may be possible in our western
and northwestern zones on Saturday, but its a question to if we
can generate enough instability with ongoing cloud cover. A strong
shortwave trough will bring a stronger low pressure system across
the great lakes Saturday night into Sunday, dragging a strong cold
front across eastern Kentucky. Some thunderstorms will likely
develop upstream and gradually weaken as they move into the area
Saturday night as they outrun the better instability. There is a
marginal risk of a few strong to severe storms in our southwestern
zones given the tremendous shear in place, but confidence remains
low on how much of this activity will hold together as it reaches
the area overnight. For now, will introduce the possibility of a
few strong storms along the heavy rain potential for Saturday and
Saturday night into the HWO. Showers will taper off on Sunday,
although NAM and ECMWF keeps some moisture around in southeast
Kentucky into Monday morning. Thus, have kept some low end pops
going a bit longer for these areas.

High pressure eventually returns by Monday into Monday night with
a return to more seasonable temperatures. In fact, lows Monday
night may dip below freezing for the first time in awhile. More
rain chances will return by midweek and last into Thursday as the
active weather pattern continues.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)

IFR/LIFR ceilings/fog will be prevalent in the valleys through
around 09z, including LOZ and SME. A warm front will develop and
eventually lift north across the area towards dawn, helping to mix
out the dense fog. An accompanying low level jet will also provide
a limited window of low level wind shear between 10 and 13z.
More sustained showers will threaten the Bluegrass towards dawn,
before diminishing through the rest of the morning. Light east to
southeast winds will veer around to the south southwest during
the day, increasing to around 10 kts, with some gusts of 15 to 20
kts at times. Ceilings will generally remain VFR during the day,
with a threat of some showers developing in the afternoon. Winds
will diminish into the evening hours.




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