Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 160831
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
331 AM EST Thu Nov 16 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 331 AM EST THU NOV 16 2017

This morning the surface analysis shows a weak and more diffuse
cold front has generally moveed east of eastern Kentucky. The
model theta-e gradient magnitude would suggest another front is
west and this is also seen on the surface analysis charts this
morning. This is a little stronger and will introduce more changes
in wind and possibly some temperature differences. The challenge
that has been presented this morning is in relation to the lower
stratus. Behind the first front, we have seen some clearing but
there has been some left over stratus/fog at times. This maybe
tough to clear out until second front moves across the region and
therefore did keep some clouds going and patchy fog through the
morning. The second front has a area of stratus slowly progressing
southward toward at least the BLuegrass portions of eastern
Kentucky. The models have been having a tough time handling this
and leaned toward a combo of NAMnest and HRRR with adjustments.

Later today, the lower stratus will slowly scatter out in the
north as we move toward the afternoon. This will lead to more sun
by the afternoon, but highs will remain in the upper 40s to lower
50s under cold air advection pattern. Tonight, an area of high
pressure will crest across the Ohio Valley as upper level ridge
builds eastward. Given the potential for mostly clear skies this
will lead to a decent shot of ridge/valley temperature splits. The
question will be how much fog do we see in the valleys to
mitigate lower temperatures. Right now will lean toward previous
forecast of upper 20s in the deeper valleys and lower 30s
elsewhere. There could be some freezing fog similar to yesterday
morning, but think similarly this will be more of the heavy frost
scenario.

By Friday, a warm air advection pattern will take hold as surface
high pressure moves east out the region. However, winds will be
more in the way of southeasterly and this will probably lead to
downsloping. Consequently, this will likely lead to lower
afternoon RH values in the mid 20s to lower 30s, but winds will
remain light. The superblend was overdone on the dewpoints and
trended these closer to the adjusted MAV and MET. This will
continue to be highlighted in the FWF. Otherwise, we are looking
at a nice day with some increasing high clouds in the afternoon.
Temperatures are in expected to top out in the mid 50s to lower
60s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 331 AM EST THU NOV 16 2017

Available shortly...

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
ISSUED AT 1241 PM EST WED NOV 15 2017

Most sites are beginning the TAF cycle with MVFR to IFR CIGs and
even some VIS restrictions for fog/drizzle. The latest GOES-16
imagery is showing a good amount of clearing and drier air moving
into portions of western and central Kentucky. Therefore, will
taper the clouds off from northwest to southeast through the
overnight into the dawn hours. Then we will see sites improve to
VFR across the board to round out the period. Winds will remain
light out of the southwest then veering west to northwest through
the overnight into later today.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DJ
LONG TERM...GREIF
AVIATION...DJ



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