Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 240820
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
320 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

WSR-88D CONTINUES TO SHOW AREAS OF SNOW AND RAIN MOVING EAST ACROSS
THE CWA THIS MORNING. MOST SPOTS HAVE TRANSITIONED TO SNOW WITH A
FEW SPOTS STILL SEEING A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW OR RAIN ACROSS THE FAR SE
AND EAST. THE BACK EDGE OF THE PRECIP IS NOW MOVING INTO THE FAR
WESTERN AND NORTHERN EDGES OF THE CWA AND WILL PROGRESS ACROSS THE
REGION THOUGH THE MORNING. MUCH OF THIS BAND WILL PROGRESS EAST OF
THE REGION BY 15Z AS DRYER AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION. SOME AREAS
BACK TO THE WEST OF THE REGION ARE EVEN SEEING SOME CLEARING WITH LMK
ASOS SEEING SCATTERED SKIES AT 27 KFT THIS HOUR. THIS LOW PRESSURE
AND UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL PROGRESS NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION
THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL PREVAIL THIS MORNING.
SOME CLEARING POSSIBLE MOVING INTO THE AFTERNOON SEEN IN MODEL
SOUNDINGS BEFORE WE SEE INCREASING CLOUD COVER TONIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT
FALL BACK INTO THE LOWER 30S.

FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO NEXT SYSTEM DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF THE NORTHERN
PLAINS FOR SUNDAY. THIS SHORTWAVE AND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING
CHANCE TO LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE REGION FROM NW TO SE AS WE MOVE
THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY. BETTER CHANCES OF PRECIP LOOK TO BE SUNDAY
NIGHT WHICH WILL BE DISCUSSED IN LONG RANGE PORTION OF THE AFD. GIVEN
WARMER AIR IN PLACE ON SUNDAY WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO RISE INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 40S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...THIS ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN. PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT
WITH AMTS GENERALLY AROUND A TENTH TO FIFTEEN HUNDREDTHS OF A INCH ON
SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 401 PM EST FRI JAN 23 2015

AN ACTIVE AND MERIDIONAL UPPER LEVEL PATTERN LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK
FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. MODELS ARE STILL TRACKING
A SHORTWAVE MOVING SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE UPPER PLAINS INTO THE OH
VALLEY AND THE GFS AND EURO BOTH SEEM TO HANDLE THIS FEATURE WELL
AND HAVE EVEN TRENDED DRIER WITH IT. A SLIGHTLY QUICKER EXIT OF THE
WAVE SEEMS POSSIBLE AS WELL. HOWEVER...IN THIS FLOW WITH A DEEP
LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS ANOTHER IMPULSE MAY MOVE
SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY NIGHT. BOTH THE EURO AND GFS PICK
UP ON THIS FEATURE AND IT EXITS THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY AS A MID LEVEL
RIDGE THEN DEVELOPS AND NOSES INTO THE AREA PROVIDING A PERIOD OF DRY
WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE PATTERN THEN WEAKENS
A BIT AS THE NEXT WAVE TAKES AIM AT THE OH VALLEY BY THURSDAY. AT
THIS TIME...THE LONGWAVE TROUGH DEEPENS AGAIN BY THE THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY PERIOD.

THE MODEL ALL BLEND ALONG WITH THE TRENDS KEEP THE CLIPPER SYSTEM
MOVING THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY AND INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. WARMER AIR
OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY SHOULD KEEP PRECIP IN ALL LIQUID FORM THROUGH
THE DAY ON SUNDAY AND MOST OF SUNDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER GIVEN THE AMOUNT
OF INSTABILITY WITH THIS FRONT...SHOULD SEE A CHANGE OVER TO SNOW A
BIT EARLIER AND SOME ACCUMULATION BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
MORNING...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE MODEL ALL BLEND
FOLLOWS ALONG WITH THE EURO AND GFS HEADING INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS
NORTHWEST WINDS SET UP...ALLOWING FOR FAVORABLE UPSLOPE THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON AS WELL. SOME ISSUES WITH CONSISTENCY ARISE BY LATE
MONDAY NIGHT AS A SECONDARY WAVE DIVES SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA BUT
THE GFS AND THE EURO ARE QUITE DIFFERENT ON HOW MUCH AND WHERE THAT
AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL MOVE THROUGH. A SECOND SHOT OF MOISTURE WITH
THIS WAVE IF IT MATERIALIZES WILL MEAN SOME ADDITIONAL SNOW SHOWERS
AND A PROLONGED EVENT POSSIBLE. ALONG WITH COLLABORATION...WILL KEEP
SOME SLIGHT CHANCE SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE IT
SEEMS THE COLDER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE FIRST FRONT WILL BE
SLOW...SOME ACCUMULATION SEEMS LIKELY BETWEEN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND
INTO MONDAY MORNING IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND IN THE NORTHWEST
BUT WILL BE LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS. WILL NEED TO MONITOR THE APPROACH OF
THE COLD AIR AND DEPTH OF THE MOISTURE AS THIS WAVE TAKES SHAPE.

THE SECOND WAVE MOVES THROUGH BY TUESDAY EVENING WITH SOME HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING IN THE AREA. A SECOND WEAK FRONT LOOKS POISED TO
IMPACT THE AREA BY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. ONCE AGAIN IN THIS
PATTERN...MOISTURE SEEMS TO BE IN QUESTION. TEMPERATURES SEEM TO BE
RIGHT AROUND OR JUST BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1234 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

MOST SITES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO SEE IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS MUCH
OF OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS HAS BEEN DUE TO RAIN AND SNOW MOVING ACROSS
THE REGION AND THESE BANDS OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO PIVOT
ACROSS THE REGION. THESE BANDS OF PRECIP WILL TAPER OFF AS WE MOVE
INTO SATURDAY MORNING WITH SITES EXPECTED TO SLOWLY IMPROVE GENERALLY
BETWEEN 12 AND 16Z FROM NW TO SE. MOST SITES ARE EXPECTED TO
TRANSITION TO VFR/MVFR AS WE MOVE INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
KYZ044-050>052-058>060.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR KYZ088-
118.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DJ
LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...DJ






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