Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 230815
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
315 AM EST TUE DEC 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM EST TUE DEC 23 2014

A CUT OFF LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS
MORNING WITH BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. LOW
LEVEL FLOW REMAINS SOUTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. A LULL IN
PRECIPITATION IS OCCURRING PRESENTLY ACROSS THE AREA AS THE LATEST
WAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR SOME RAIN EARLIER TONIGHT HAS EXITED TO THE
NORTH. HOWEVER...MORE SHOWERS ARE SPREADING NORTH OUT OF CENTRAL
TENNESSEE AND WILL PROVIDE SOME RAIN INTO SOUTHERN KENTUCKY OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH MIDDAY WILL REMAIN
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA.

ANOTHER WILL EMERGE FROM THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND PUSH NORTH ACROSS
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BRINGING WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS BACK TO THE AREA. THE SHOWALTER INDEX REMAINS NEGATIVE
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. THUS...ANY
ENHANCED AREAS OF LIFT WILL PROVIDE THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME THUNDER.
THE THUNDER THREAT SHOULD REMAIN ALL ELEVATED LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT. GIVEN THE TREMENDOUS LIFT ARRIVING LATE IN THE DAY AND THE
WIDESPREAD COVERAGE DEPICTED IN THE HRRR...HAVE OPTED FOR
CATEGORICAL POPS LATE IN THE DAY INTO TONIGHT. AS THIS INITIAL WAVE
EXITS TO THE NORTH...WE MAY SEE ANOTHER LULL THROUGH A PORTION OF
TONIGHT. HOWEVER...ANOTHER STRONG WAVE WILL PUSH NORTH LATE TONIGHT
WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NORTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL
KENTUCKY. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA.

AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM STRENGTHENS AND HEADS INTO MICHIGAN ON
WEDNESDAY...IT WILL SEND A STRONG COLD FRONT TO THE EAST ACROSS
KENTUCKY. AGAIN...GOOD CONVERGENCE AND LIFT ALONG THE FRONT SHOULD
PROVIDE ANOTHER PERIOD OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS. THIS FRONT WILL ALSO
PRODUCE THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDER THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS IT
CROSSES THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THIS TIME
AROUND...WE MAY BE ABLE TO GENERATE ENOUGH SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY
TO POSSIBLY MIX DOWN SOME OF THE STRONGER WINDS AS THE SHOWERS ALONG
THE FRONT PUSH EAST. THIS COULD YIELD WINDS 45+ KNOTS. EVEN WITHOUT
THE INSTABILITY...SYNOPTIC WINDS WILL TURN QUITE GUSTY JUST BEHIND
THE FRONT WITH WIND GUSTS REACHING AS HIGH AS 40 MPH AT TIMES. AS THE
FRONT PUSHES EAST...WE SHOULD FINALLY SEE PRECIPITATION COME TO AN
END FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS WEDNESDAY AS A DRY
SLOT OVERSPREADS THE AREA.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE MILD SIDE THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH
HIGHS WELL INTO THE 60S BOTH DAYS AND LOWS TONIGHT ONLY IN THE 50S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM EST TUE DEC 23 2014

LONG TERM DISCUSSION WILL FOLLOW SHORTLY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 223 AM EST TUE DEC 23 2014

A MIX OF VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24
HOURS AS A NUMBER OF WEAK DISTURBANCES PUSH NORTH AHEAD OF AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH ADVANCING FROM THE WEST. THE PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER
WILL BE MOST LIKELY TO SEE THE MVFR CONDITIONS...WITH VFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE BETWEEN WAVES. THE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO MAINTAIN MVFR CIGS
WILL BE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY...FARTHER AWAY FROM THE
INFLUENCE OF THE SOUTHEAST WINDS DOWNSLOPING OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...KAS






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