Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 160839
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
339 AM EST Sat Dec 16 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 339 AM EST SAT DEC 16 2017

Surface high pressure is centered across the Gulf Coast States,
with ridging nosed up into the Tennessee and Ohio valleys. Aloft,
a split flow pattern is in place, with a trough axis shifting off
the New England Coast within the northern stream, while an upper
level low spirals across northern Mexico within the southern
stream. Stratocu cloud cover is finally relenting across eastern
Kentucky, with clearing skies working in from the west. Return
flow out of the south southwest has ensued, with cooler valleys in
the east reporting in the lower 20s, while upper 20s are noted on
the ridges.

The models are in good agreement through the short term, with the
upper level low across northern Mexico ejecting out and dampening
as it moves northeast. This feature will reach the Arklatex
region by tonight, and then moves through the Ohio Valley by late
Sunday, bringing a round of light precipitation to the region.

Today will feature a mostly sunny day, as ridging sharpens up
across the Mississippi Valley in response to the approaching short
wave from the southwest. Temperatures will rebound to around the
50 degree mark for most locations today, with southwest winds of
around 10 mph, and a few gusts of 15 to 25 mph for some locations
during peak mixing.

Mostly clear skies will be in place initially tonight, as the
ridge axis moves overhead. This will allow for the valleys to drop
off quickly in the east, with some mid 20s expected. Clouds will
thicken and lower for the second half of the night, likely
stifling the diurnal drop through dawn. The short wave will then
move through the region on Sunday, bringing light precipitation
to the area. Most of the guidance has generally trended slower
with the precipitation onset, ensuring that this will fall as
light rain. Did stay on the cooler side of guidance for the highs,
with generally mid 40s expected, given the wet-bulbing.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 339 AM EST SAT DEC 16 2017

The long term forecast discussion will follow shortly.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
ISSUED AT 105 AM EST SAT DEC 16 2017

VFR conditions will prevail through the period. A broken stratocu
deck ranging from 4-6k feet agl will break up and exit off to the
east through the overnight hours, with mainly just a few passing
mid and high level clouds expected thereafter. Southwest winds
will average between 5 and 10 kts through the period, with the
strongest winds occurring during the afternoon hours, with some
gusts of around 15 kts possible at times.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN



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