Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 220605
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
205 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 756 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

UPDATED THE FORECAST GRIDS WITH THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS TO ESTABLISH
NEW TRENDS. ALSO UPDATED THE ZONE FORECAST TEXT PRODUCT TO REMOVE THE
PRE FIRST PERIOD THAT MENTIONED THUNDERSTORMS. THE STORMS HAVE MOVED
OUT OF THE AREA WITH NO FURTHER ACTIVITY EXPECTED. THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK WAS ALSO UPDATED TO REMOVE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 329 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

A SURFACE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH EASTERN
KENTUCKY...STRETCHED NEAR A LINE FROM KFGX TO KBWG. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE POPPING UP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
BEEN LIMITED...WITH ONLY A LITTLE IN CLOUD LIGHTNING SHOWING UP IN
TENNESSEE IN THE PAST HOUR. A DISTINCT CLEARING LINE MARKS THE CUSP
OF THE MUCH DRIER SURFACE AIR ADVECTING IN...WITH LOTS OF DEW POINTS
IN THE 40S NOTED UPSTREAM.

THIS BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO WORK SOUTHEAST ACROSS OUR AREA THROUGH
THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON. WILL MAINTAIN SOME SCATTERED CHANCE POPS
AND JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A RUMBLE OF THUNDER OR TWO. SKIES WILL
CLEAR OUT THROUGH THIS EVENING...BEFORE SOME LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP TOWARDS DAWN AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
LOWS TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 50 TO 55 DEGREES...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF A FEW 40S UP NORTH AS WELL AS ALONG THE HIGHEST TERRAIN
IN THE SOUTHEAST.

CLOUDS WILL LIKELY HANG AROUND THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING HOURS ON
MONDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHEAST. THIS SLOW START TO THE DIURNAL
RISE WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S FOR MOST LOCATIONS. THE
COOL DAYTIME READINGS WILL THEN SET THE STAGE FOR A CHILLY MONDAY
NIGHT...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP OFF INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY BY 12Z TUESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN STRONG
OVER THE REGION...WITH WINDS BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT PULLING
DRY AND COLDER AIR IN FROM CANADA. AFTERNOON HIGHS TUESDAY WILL
LIKELY FALL SHORT OF THE AGGRESSIVE MAV GUIDANCE...ENDING UP CLOSER
TO THE MET NUMBERS. THIS WILL PUT THEM RIGHT AROUND THE 70 DEGREE
MARK. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN BLOCKED OVER THE REGION
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. AS SUCH...DRY AIR WILL PERSIST
ACROSS MUCH OF THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY...THOUGH THE LOSS OF STRONGEST
NRLY WIND FLOW AT BOTH THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL LEAD TO AIR MASS
MODIFICATION AND RISING TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED.

MODELS ARE NOT IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT HEADING THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
DEEP SOUTHEAST FLOW MAY DEVELOP WITH MOISTURE ADVANCING INTO THE
AREA FROM THE ATLANTIC. WHILE DOWNSLOPING FLOW MAY LIMIT POTENTIAL
PRECIPITATION...IF THE FLOW IS DEEP ENOUGH...SOME MOISTURE MAY STILL
MAKE IT OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN LEADING TO POSSIBLE SHOWERS BY SUNDAY.
HOWEVER...THIS PERIOD REMAINS VERY MUCH UNCERTAIN. MORE SHALLOW
SOUTHEAST FLOW WOULD LIMIT THIS PRECIPITATION THREAT AS DOWNSLOPING
WOULD DOMINATE. THUS...WILL ONLY INCLUDE SOME SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
RAIN AS WE HEAD INTO THE END OF THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 204 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

SUBSTANTIAL DRY AIR HAS MOVED IN ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN KY AFTER A
DEPARTING COLD FRONT FROM EARLIER IN THE DAY. HOWEVER...A
DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION HAS
CAUSED A BROAD DECK OF MVFR CLOUDS. ACCORDING TO THE LATEST
IMAGERY...THESE CLOUDS ARE CONTINUING TO PUSH SSE-WARD AND ARE
EXPECTED TO ENTER INTO EASTERN KY WITHIN THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
GIVEN THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS UPSTREAM...AND WITH SUPPORT FROM THE
LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS AND LAMP GUIDANCE...DECIDED TO INCREASE CLOUD
DECK HEIGHTS BACK TO MVFR AS THEY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.
OTHERWISE...PATCHY FOG SHOULD ONLY BE CONFINED TO THE DEEPEST VALLEYS
AND IN SOME LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVED RAINFALL TODAY...BUT SHOULD
GENERALLY STAY OUT OF THE TAF SITES. BY LATE TOMORROW
MORNING...STRONG SUBSIDENCE WILL TAKE HOLD...WITH CLOUDS LIFTING TO
VFR AND THINNING OUT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AR
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...KAS/JMW
AVIATION...JMW





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