Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 200229
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1029 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1027 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

USED OBSERVED TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS TO ADJUST HOURLY GRIDS FOR
TONIGHT...BLENDING TOWARD THE PREEXISTING FORECAST BY MORNING. NO
SUBSTANTIVE CHANGES TO THE OVERALL FORECAST WERE MADE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 729 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

HAVE UPDATED TO ALLOW FOR A FASTER DROP IN VALLEY TEMPS THIS
EVENING. ALSO...REDUCED SKY COVER FOR MOST AREAS THIS EVENING.
MESOSCALE MODELS ARE PERSISTENT IN SHOWING CLOUDS DEVELOPING NEAR OUR
WESTERN BORDER LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...A WELL AS SOME
SHOWERS. HAVE ACCOUNTED FOR A FEW CLOUDS...BUT KEPT THE FORECAST IN
THE JKL FORECAST AREA DRY AT THIS POINT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 307 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

A LARGE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE EAST
COAST INTO THE WEEKEND...PROVIDING A DRY START TO THE WEEKEND. STILL
A REMOTE CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER ACROSS PIKE COUNTY LATER THIS
EVENING...BUT CHANCES SEEM TO BE DIMINISHING WITH EVERY HOUR THAT
PASSES. THE CU JUST DOES NOT LOOK ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE.
REGARDLESS...UNTIL INSTABILITY WANES THIS EVENING CANNOT RULE OUT A
BRIEF POP UP SHOWER. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT AGAIN TONIGHT. WITH
DEW POINTS CLIMBING HIGHER TODAY...AND CLEARING SKIES...ANOTHER NIGHT
OF FOG CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA. SHOULD BE A FAIRLY TYPICAL
FOG FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HIGHS WILL CLIMB TO THE HIGHEST READINGS
OF THE WEEK ON SATURDAY AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB INTO THE LOW 80S DURING
THE AFTERNOON. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE SATURDAY NIGHT AS A
COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY COULD MAKE IT INTO AREAS NORTH OF 1-64
PRIOR TO 12Z SUNDAY...BUT IT APPEARS THE MAIN PRECIPITATION WITH THE
FRONT SHOULD COME COME LATER ON SUNDAY. WITH CLOUDS AND SURFACE
MOISTURE INCREASING SATURDAY NIGHT...A MILDER NIGHT IS ON TAP WITH
LOWS ONLY INTO THE 60S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

ALL OF THE WEATHER IS AT THE FRONT END OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD AS A
COLD FRONT IS SET TO SWEEP QUICKLY ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY.
MOISTURE RETURN IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT IS NOT GREAT WITH PWATS ONLY
CREEPING UP TO ABOUT 1.5 INCHES IN A THIN RIBBON. COUPLED WITH ONLY
WEAK INSTABILITY...ANTICIPATE A NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. THE
BULK OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE TO OUR SOUTHEAST BY SUNDAY EVENING.
FOLLOWING THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE...A LARGE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SLIDE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. COUPLED WITH A BUILDING RIDGE ALOFT...
THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER WITH
PLEASANT TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK. THERE IS ONE POSSIBLE FLY IN THE
OINTMENT THOUGH AS FORECAST MODELS HINT THAT A WEAK UPPER LOW MAY
GET TRAPPED TO THE SOUTH OF THE UPPER RIDGE. ALL SIGNS CURRENTLY ARE
THAT ANY ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WITH THIS LOW WOULD STAY TO OUR SOUTH
AND EAST SO WILL NOT GIVE THIS ANY PLAY IN OUR LOCAL FORECAST AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1029 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

ASIDE FROM LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG...VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT
WINDS WILL PREVAIL DURING THE PERIOD. THE FOG WILL FOLLOW ITS TYPICAL
LATE SUMMER/EARLY AUTUMN PATTERN OF DEVELOPING FIRST IN DEEP VALLEYS
AND THEN GROWING IN BREADTH AND DEPTH...WITH THE POTENTIAL TO BEGIN
TO REACH SOME RIDGES AND OPEN TERRAIN BY DAWN. MOST FOG WILL
DISSIPATE BY LATE MORNING.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...HAL





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