Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 271718
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
118 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1028 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK. UPDATED NDFD HOURLY TEMPERATURES
AND DEW POINTS BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 801 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

FRESHENED UP THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS TO JIVE BETTER
WITH THE CURRENT CONDITIONS...OTHERWISE THE FORECAST REMAINS ON
TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

SOME PESKY CU HAVE MOVED INTO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
FORECAST AREA SO HAVE BUMPED UP SKY COVER TO ACCOUNT FOR THE CLOUD
COVER. OTHERWISE...TRICKY PART OF THE FORECAST TONIGHT IS THE LOW
TEMPS. SOME SPOTS ARE ALREADY IN THE LOW 50S SO BUMPED THE LOWS
DOWN 1-2 DEGREES...WITH THE COLDEST SPOTS FORECAST TO DIP INTO
THE UPPER 40S.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR
THE SHORT TERM. AT UPPER LEVELS...THE TROUGH WILL FINALLY PUSH EWD
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE SFC RIDGE FOLLOWING SUITE BY LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. AS THE SFC HIGH SLIDES
EAST...MID LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF A
DEVELOPING SHORTWAVE IN THE NRN PLAINS. ADDITIONALLY...THE LL
RETURN FLOW FROM THE GULF WILL BEGIN USHERING IN 60 DEGREE DEW
POINTS AND WARMER TEMPS...MAKING THINGS FEEL A BIT MORE HUMID BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY WILL REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL BUT WILL FINALLY RETURN TO THE LOWER 80S ON FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

THE MODELS REMAIN IN ONLY DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST. A STRONG PACIFIC NORTHWEST SYSTEM WILL
BE MOVING ONSHORE...HELPING TO PIVOT THE RIDGE AXIS FROM THE
ROCKIES TO THE PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY
THE WEEKEND. IN THE EAST...A SHORT WAVE WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY REGION...WITH ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY
TO CONTEND WITH ALONG THE GULF STATES.

THE ECMWF AND GFS REMAIN AT ODDS WITH EACH OTHER WITH REGARDS TO
THE EVOLUTION OF THE PATTERN IN THE EAST. THE ECMWF REMAINS SLOWER
AND MORE AMPLIFIED WITH THE NORTHERN SHORT WAVE...WHILE WEAKER IN
THE SOUTH. THIS ALLOWS FOR MORE DECISIVE RIDGING TO BUILD IN
ACROSS THE AREA AFTER TUESDAY. THE GFS IS FASTER AND WEAKER WITH
THE NORTHERN WAVE...WHILE STRONGER WITH THE SOUTHERN
WAVE...KEEPING MORE TROUGHINESS IN ACROSS THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO
VALLEYS INITIALLY...BEFORE THEN DEPICTING SOME INFLUENCE FROM
ERIKA BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY AMONGST THE MODELS AND PARTICULARLY THE
ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FOR NEXT WEEK...A CONSERVATIVE BLEND OF THE
GUIDANCE WAS USED. SMALL CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
RETURN TO THE FORECAST FROM SATURDAY ONWARD...WITH THE BEST
OVERALL CHANCE OCCURRING ON SUNDAY...WHEN MORE FORCING WILL BE IN
PLACE. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S AND LOWS IN
THE LOW TO MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 118 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY WILL CONTINUE
TO CONTROL OUR WEATHER INTO FRIDAY...WITH VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAILING. SCATTERED TO BROKEN CU AND SC HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. MOST
CEILINGS ARE ABOVE 4K FEET...BUT A FEW LOCAL CEILINGS AROUND 3K
FEET ARE BEING OBSERVED. ANY MVFR CEILINGS WILL LIFT TO VFR BY MID
AFTERNOON. SKIES WILL CLEAR THIS EVENING...AND RIVER VALLEY FOG
WILL FORM LATE TONIGHT. FOG IS NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE TAF
SITES. A FEW N TO NE WIND GUSTS OF 12 TO 18 KNOTS FROM CAN BE
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON...BUT OVERALL LIGHT WINDS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SBH
SHORT TERM...JVM
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...SBH



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