Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 220752

National Weather Service Jackson KY
352 AM EDT Wed Mar 22 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 352 AM EDT WED MAR 22 2017

Available shortly...

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 352 AM EDT WED MAR 22 2017

Above normal temperatures and multiple rain chances will be the
story for the long term period.

An area of surface high pressure will be parked of the Mid
Atlantic Coast to begin the period and heights will be on the rise
as upper level ridge builds east. This will combine with lifting
warm front to bring above average temperatures to the region.
Right now looks like this warm front will be dry here in the
eastern side of the state Thursday night. All eyes then turn to
the Rockies for already developed upper level closed low and
nearly vertically stacked system. This will system will eject east
and then northeast into the Mississippi River Valley by Saturday.
Given the models are backing off on speed with this did opt to
back off on POPs for Saturday. Overall think the best chances will
occur Saturday night into Sunday based on the latest guidance.
Keep some slight thunder in the grids with some instability
Saturday afternoon through Sunday. Overall this system becomes
less significant, as the surface low weakens as it moves NE into
the Great Lakes. The ridging behind this will be brief, as another
wave ejects east out of the Rockies into the Mississippi River
Valley Monday. Given timing uncertainty with this will keep some
POPs in the grids on Monday, but could see a small window of
drying before precipitation chances rise again Late Monday into


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)

Expect VFR conditions across eastern Kentucky through the TAF
period. A few low and some mid level as a shortwave trough passes
through the area. Winds will average out of the north to northeast
at 5 to 10 KT as high pressure builds into the area. Winds will
slacken to closer to 5KT or less during the 22Z to 6Z period with
gradual loss of solar insolation and deeper mixing combined with
a decrease in the pressure gradient.


Freeze Warning until 10 AM EDT this morning for KYZ044-050>052.



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