Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 261815
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
115 PM EST FRI DEC 26 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 115 PM EST FRI DEC 26 2014

UPDATED FORECAST PACKAGE TO BRING GRIDS IN LINE WITH CURRENT HOURLY
OBSERVATIONS. RIDGE TOPS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO RESPOND THUS FAR AND TRENDS
SUGGEST A BIT COOLER AFTERNOON HIGHS THAN ORIGINALLY ANTICIPATED IN A
HANDFUL OF LOCATIONS. MADE ADJUSTMENTS ACCORDINGLY. ADDITIONAL MID
AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL ENTER OUR AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON...THEN
THICKEN AND LOWER WITH TIME. CONSEQUENTLY BEEFED UP SKY COVER A BIT.
NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 945 AM EST FRI DEC 26 2014

UPDATED MORNING FORECAST PACKAGE TO REMOVE MENTION OF FREEZING FOG
FROM THE ZONES. BROUGHT GRIDS IN LINE WITH HOURLY OBS. OVERNIGHT LOWS
WERE QUITE COLD AND WE APPEAR TO BE SLOW GETTING OUT OF THE GATE.
TWEAKED AFTERNOON HIGHS JUST A BIT BUT STILL EXPECT TEMPS WILL
REBOUND NICELY TODAY UNDER FULL SUNLIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 AM EST FRI DEC 26 2014

THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT SLOWLY PROGRESS
EAST AS SURFACE HIGH MOVES EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC. THIS SLOW MOVING
FRONT WILL HAVE SEVERAL AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE ALONG THE
BOUNDARY. ONSET OF PRECIP COULD BE SLOWED DUE TO DOWNSLOPING...
HOWEVER MOISTURE WILL EVENTUALLY DEEPEN AS WE MOVE INTO SUNDAY. NO
TREAT OF WINTER PRECIP AS TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE
NORMAL DURING THIS PERIOD. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ELONGATED TROUGH
WILL MOVE EAST WITH THE TROUGH BEGINNING TO FLATTEN OUT SUNDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROGRESS EAST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND THIS WILL
ALSO USHER IN COOLER CLOSER TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP WEATHER FAIRLY QUIET AND TEMPS
GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. TUESDAY
NIGHT THERE IS A WEAK SHORT WAVE THAT CROSSES THE AREA WITH MAINLY A
BIT MORE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL KEEP FROM GAINING
MAX COOLING AND COULD EVEN BRING POTENTIAL OF SOME FLURRIES...HOWEVER
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THIS AT THIS POINT GIVEN HOW DRY IT WILL BE.
ALSO BASED ON MODEL SOUNDING THE MOISTURE IS QUITE SHALLOW. HIGH WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD EAST BRINGING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AS WE MOVE INTO
LATER WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THAT HIGH WILL BE MOSTLY
CRESTING ACROSS THE REGION AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WOULD EXPECT THIS
TO ONE OF THE COLDER NIGHTS WITH GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. RIGHT NOW
GOING WITH LOW TEMPS IN THE UPPER TEEN TO LOWER 20S WED NIGHT. MOVING
INTO THURSDAY MORE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH 500MB SHORTWAVE EJECTING
OUT OF THE FOUR CORNER AND HOW QUICKLY MOISTURE SPREADS NE AHEAD OF
DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS SOUTHERN TX. RIGHT NOW JUST
KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE OF MIX RAIN/SNOW BEFORE CHANGING TO RAIN ON
THURSDAY...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON HOW MUCH OF THIS SYSTEM WILL
BE OCCURRING ON THURSDAY VERSUS FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 115 PM EST FRI DEC 26 2014

VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST WINDOW.
HOWEVER...HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE...THICKEN AND
LOWER THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WELL. DO NOT EXPECT ANY SHOWERS IN THE
FORECAST UNTIL LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING...MOVING INTO THE
AREA FROM THE WEST...SOUTHWEST. WINDS WILL BE LESS THAN 10 KTS...
AND GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTH...SOUTHWEST.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...RAY
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...RAY






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