000
FXUS63 KJKL 201900
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
300 PM EDT MON MAY 20 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM EDT MON MAY 20 2013

THE PERSISTENT RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE IS
FINALLY CLEARING THE STATE TO THE EAST. THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM IS
PROVIDING THE PLAINS WITH DAILY ROUNDS OF STRONG TO SEVERE WEATHER.
THIS SYSTEM WILL BEGIN AFFECTING ERN KY BY LATE TUE NIGHT. HOWEVER
THE SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE LOSING STRENGTH AS IT MOVES EAST ACROSS THE
MISS RIVER SO SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL BE LIMITED. BETWEEN TONIGHT WITH
NO PCPN EXPECTED AND WED WHEN THE FRONTAL BNDRY WILL PUSH
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE AREA...THE FLOW FROM THE SW WILL CONTINUE.
THIS WILL KEEP MOISTURE AND RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AT A HIGH LEVEL AND
DAILY HEATING WILL PRODUCE RANDOM AIR MASS THUNDERSTORMS. THESE STORMS
SHOULD NOT BE SEVERE BUT THEY WILL BE SLOW MOVING AND WILL BE VERY
EFFICIENT RAIN MAKERS. LOCALIZED AREAS WILL SEE PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN
AND MAY EXPERIENCE LOCALIZED FLOODING PROBLEMS. THE SW WINDS WILL
KEEP TEMPS IN THE 80S FOR HIGHS WHILE OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ONLY DROP
TO NEAR DEWPOINT LEVELS IN THE MID 60S. EXPECT ROUNDS OF PATCHY
DENSE FOG EACH MORNING UNTIL THE SUN CAN WARM THE GROUND AND
DISSIPATE THE FOG.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT MON MAY 20 2013

THE LONG TERM MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE DETAILS OF
THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST. THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH ARE BOTH
PUSHING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY
REGIONS TO BEGIN THE PERIOD...WITH WRAP AROUND MOIST NORTHWEST FLOW
SETTING UP BEHIND THE FRONT...AS THE PARENT LOW MOVES ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND INTO NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. ENOUGH
INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT WITH THE FRONT TO SPARK WIDESPREAD RAIN
SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...AND THE NEW FORECAST WILL
REFLECT THIS TREND. THE MODELS THEN ALL AGREE THAT THERE WILL BE AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF QUIET WEATHER FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING...AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS SLOWLY
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. CLOUD COVER
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ONCE AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT...AS A WEAK WARM
FRONTAL OR SURFACE TROUGH BECOMES ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.
THE MODELS ALL HAVE THIS BOUNDARY AS A DIFFUSE LINE OF MOISTURE
DISCONTINUITY AND WEAK WIND SHIFT ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN
KENTUCKY. LIMITED INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE AVAILABLE...THE THINKING
IS FOR ONLY A MINIMAL CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION AND ONLY A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDER DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. THE RAIN CHANCES MIGHT
INCREASE SOME NEXT MONDAY...BUT WITH THE BOUNDARY BEING ILL DEFINED
AND WITH ONLY LIMITED MOISTURE/INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH...WENT WITH
LOW PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES BOTH DAYS...20-30 PERCENT ACROSS THE
BOARD. TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WILL LIKELY RUN AT OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE BOARD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 106 PM EDT MON MAY 20 2013

EXTENSIVE FIELD OF CU AND SC IS ACROSS THE AREA. SKY CONDITIONS ARE
QUITE VARIABLE RANGING FROM SCT TO OVC...WITH CEILINGS RANGING FROM
LESS THAN 3K FEET TO AROUND 5K FEET. CEILINGS WILL BE LIFTING
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON...WITH CLOUDS ALSO SCATTERING
OUT LATE. AS SUCH VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO THE NIGHT. WITH UPPER
LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MUCH
LESS LIKELY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. MVFR FOG CAN BE EXPECTED TOWARDS DAWN ON
TUESDAY...BUT THIS WILL BE VERY SHORT LIVED.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DUSTY
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...SBH