Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 231925

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson KY
325 PM EDT MON MAY 23 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 325 PM EDT MON MAY 23 2016

The short term discussion will be issued shortly.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 325 PM EDT MON MAY 23 2016

As the upper level low scoots off to our east, ridging will build
into the region at the start of the long term. Flow will then turn
to the southwest, ushering in higher moisture and warmer
temperatures. Ridging is expected to stay parked over the region
through the work week, shift to the east just a bit for the
weekend as a shortwave trough lifts into the Great Lakes, then get
reinforced back into the Tennessee Valley to end the month of May.
There will be chances for afternoon showers and thunderstorms
every afternoon, but any source of low level forcing in terms of a
front will likely hang up to our northwest. There is the potential
for more widespread shower activity over the weekend if the upper
level low feature nudges closer to East Kentucky (closer to the
GFS20 solution). However, decided to keep it generalized with
slight to chance pops in the afternoons each day to account for
model differences in timing and coverage of precipitation.

Temperatures will average well above normal each day with highs
in the low to mid 80s and overnight lows in the low 60s.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)

Vfr conditions are expected at all sites throughout the period
as this afternoon`s cumulus field remains scattered and above 3000
feet. Patchy valley fog is possible late tonight into Tuesday
morning, but this should remain confined to deeper valleys outside
of Taf sites. Light winds at or below 6 knots will prevail out of
the northeast today before veering south or southeasterly tonight
and southwesterly tomorrow.


.JKL Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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