Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 241830 AAA

National Weather Service Jackson KY
230 PM EDT Mon Oct 24 2016

Issued at 145 PM EDT MON OCT 24 2016

Did a quick update to the grids through the rest of the afternoon
to account for the latest obs and trends. This includes a
smattering of lower clouds settling south into the area
associated with the cold front. These have been sent to the NDFD
and web servers.

UPDATE Issued at 1145 AM EDT MON OCT 24 2016

15z sfc analysis shows a dry and mostly cloud free cold front
descending through eastern Kentucky this morning. With this a wind
shift to the northwest and north is noted. However, the air mass
is fairly similar across this boundary with temperatures in the
low to mid 60s ATTM throughout the area while dewpoints are
holding in the low to mid 40s. The forecast is on track and only
made minor adjustments to the grids per the latest obs and trends.
These have been sent to the NDFD and web servers.

UPDATE Issued at 654 AM EDT MON OCT 24 2016

Quite a range in temperatures this morning from the mid 40s up to
the mid 50s. With limited fog this morning, sunshine should help
to warm things up fairly quickly this morning, allowing for mild
daytime conditions despite the cold front dropping in from the
north through mid morning. We will see a wind shift to the
northwest by late morning into the midday hours. Otherwise, no
cloud cover with the front, so no other impacts expected. Drier
and cooler air will lag behind the front a bit, so it may take
awhile to feel the full effects of the frontal passage. No
significant changes planned this morning.


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 345 AM EDT MON OCT 24 2016

A dry cold front currently just north of the Ohio river this
morning, will work south across the area today. Conditions have
remained somewhat mixed overnight with temperatures still holding
in the mid 50s in most areas. Some of the eastern valleys have
decoupled and fallen back into the 40s. Either way, cold front
will lack any cloud cover, so with the sun coming up this morning,
we will quickly warm just ahead of the front reaching the mid 60s
to around 70 in most places today. With drier and cooler air
settling in behind the front tonight, lows will be much cooler
with some mid 30s showing up in the deeper valleys of eastern
Kentucky. With the dry air lagging behind the front, it looks like
conditions should favor more fog formation tonight in the river
valleys. Model sounds show a tremendous amount of dry air just off
the surface on Tuesday. Model blend continues to handle this dry
air very poorly and have undercut all guidance with respect to
afternoon/early evening dewpoints. Have dropped most places a good
5 degrees under guidance. The dry air will also lead to highs
above guidance. In fact, 850mb temperatures warm a degree or two
heading into Tuesday. Right now going to shoot for highs in the
mid 60s to around 70, not too far off from today`s temperatures.
We could be a degree or two cooler just because we will be
starting off the day much cooler.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 359 AM EDT MON OCT 24 2016

Surface ridging will be translating eastward across the Appalachians
Tuesday night downstream of a shortwave trough pushing from the
eastern Great Plains into the Midwest and Great Lakes region. This
will induce return flow and subsequent warm air advection through
the night. This combined with a bone dry boundary layer will likely
put a damper on much in the way if any frost potential for Wednesday
morning. Could see some patchy fog in the more sheltered valleys
bordering Virginia and West Virginia as return flow will arrive
later nearer the axis of the departing surface ridge.

The next chance of precipitation will arrive across the Bluegrass
region near or after midnight Wednesday into Thursday as the
aforementioned trough and an attendant cold front approach the Ohio
Valley. Better rainfall chances will occur later in the night into
Thursday morning as moisture from the Gulf of Mexico eventually
works into eastern Kentucky. Will continue to keep thunder mention
out of the forecast as overall instability appears weak, although
will have to monitor potential for an elevated storm or two if
stronger dynamical cooling can erode a chunk of the low-mid level

High pressure will then build back in for the end of the week as
high temperatures generally remain in the mid 60s to lower 70s,
before an upper level disturbance moves toward lower Ontario and the
western Great Lakes. This could bring another round of showers by
Friday night into Saturday, while another weak system may try to
load up for the second half of the weekend. Despite the passage of
these systems and associated cold fronts, a widespread freeze
continues to look unlikely before Halloween.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)

Aside from some scattered clouds with the front at 3-4k feet, VFR
conditions will continue through Tuesday afternoon. Winds will be
up between 5 and 10 kts through this fropa with a turn more
northerly. Look for the winds to subside to light and variable
after 23z and pick up again from the north on Tuesday at around 5




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