Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 221800
AFDJKL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson KY
200 PM EDT MON AUG 22 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 200 PM EDT MON AUG 22 2016

Fantastic day out there for sure. Light northerly winds bringing
in some drier air combined with good mixing within the boundary
layer are producing dew points well into the 50s this afternoon,
leading to pleasantly low humidities. Afternoon highs still look
on track but would not be surprised to see a few locations wind
up a degree or so higher than advertised. No major updates to the
forecast package and only minor tweaks to the grids.

UPDATE Issued at 1112 AM EDT MON AUG 22 2016

Quick update is out for this morning to remove fog wording from
the zones and to bump grids towards the hourly trends. Otherwise
forecast is on track. No other updates ATTM.

UPDATE Issued at 744 AM EDT MON AUG 22 2016

Fog is starting to lift and dissipate in some locations,
although it remains the most widespread and dense in some of the
valleys generally south of the Mountain Parkway and along and east
of Interstate 75. The HWO highlighted this and an SPS was issued
to handle the dense fog in the valleys through 9 AM earlier this
morning and with the fog starting to lift and mix out this timing
still remains on target. Only minor adjustments have been made to
the hourly grids based on recent observations.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 339 AM EDT MON AUG 22 2016

Early this morning, a mid level trough continues to depart to the
east of the area with mid level height rises as a mid level ridge
is building into the area. At the surface, high pressure is
building into the Great Lakes and Lower OH Valley Region from the
mid MS Valley. The height rises are expected to continue on
average into the day on Tuesday, before the axis of the ridge
approaches and begins to shift east of the area late in the
period. The surface high will continue building across the OH
Valley today with the center of the high settling across the Mid
Atlantic States by late tonight. The axis of this high should move
to the Eastern Seaboard by the end of the period.

Fog should persist through sunrise, dense in some of the valley
locations, particularly the deeper valleys, before lifting and
dissipating by 2 to 3 hours after sunrise today. The dense valley
fog this morning will remain the primary weather concern in the
short term as high pressure will remain dominant. The fog is
already highlighted in the HWO and a Graphical Nowcast and plan to
highlight in an SPS for the morning commute.

Otherwise, the relatively cooler and drier airmass will bring a
reprieve from the warm and humid weather that has prevailed for
much of this month. Highs today will average around 5 degrees
below normal and this combined with dewpoints in the mid to upper
50s will make it feel more like early September. Lows tonight
should fall into the mid to upper 50s, especially in the valleys
while some ridgetops may not fall below 60 as the surface high
remains dominant, but begins to shift east leading to the small to
moderate ridge/valley temperature split. This pattern will favor
fog formation again, but this should be confined to the
climatologically favored spots for fog such as the deeper and more
sheltered valleys near the larger creeks, streams and area rivers.

The airmass will begin to moderate on Tuesday as the surface high
moves east. 850 mb temps are expected to be about 3 degrees C
warmer than today so highs should return to closer to normal with
mid 80s for highs common outside of the high terrain. However, the
break from the heat and humidity that has been prevalent this
month will continue as afternoon dewpoints should be in the upper
50s to around 60.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 333 AM EDT MON AUG 22 2016

The weather will be mostly dry throughout the extended period as mid
and upper level ridging takes hold of the southeastern US. At the
surface, high pressure will slide off to the east Tuesday afternoon,
with return flow bringing slightly warmer and more humid air back
into the region. This will allow for some isolated showers to return
to the forecast during the second part of the work week. A shortwave
is expected to push through the Ohio Valley late Wednesday into
Thursday with the best forcing grazing our northwest counties. As
this feature departs Thursday afternoon, a cold front will spill
south and wash out as it tries to move across the forecast area.
What is left of the boundary would be over the area on Friday,
leading to a few isolated showers or storms. High pressure will be
reinforced over Kentucky into the upcoming weekend, with a return to
dry and mild conditions. Temperatures will average a couple degrees
warmer than climatology in the afternoons, with mild overnight lows
around 70 degrees.&&

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 200 PM EDT MON AUG 22 2016

VFR conditions expected through the period. Exception will be
our deeper valley locations where late night, early morning fog
will develop again late tonight. With drier air settling down
across the region do not expect the fog to be as prevalent
tonight as it was this morning except possibly in the river
valleys. Consequently KSME VSBYS will likely be influenced for a
few hours through the pre-dawn hours Tuesday and as such went
with a short period of MVFR/IFR VSBYS, 09-12Z. Otherwise winds
will generally be light and variable.

&&

.JKL Watches/Warnings/Advisories...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...RAY
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...KAS/JVM
AVIATION...RAY



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