Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 190745

National Weather Service Jackson KY
345 AM EDT Wed Oct 19 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 345 AM EDT WED OCT 19 2016

Morning surface analysis showing a surface cold front and weak low
pressure to our NW nearing the Ohio River Valley region. This
boundary will remain quasi stationary today and we will see
clouds and showers ride along and just ahead of the boundary. That
said CAMS generally keep best chances of POPs along and north of
the I-64 corridor. This seems reasonable given boundary placement
and general forecast progs. That said keep best coverage of clouds
across the far NW and therefore the lower overall afternoon highs.
Now while the high temps may not exceed the records from 2005
particularly at JKL, we will remain well above normal today

Tonight the frontal boundary will begin to start moving toward the
eastern KY, as upper level trough begins to deepen across the
plains. This will begin to bring additional clouds toward dawn and
slight POPs in the western portions of the CWA toward dawn. These
additional clouds will aid in limiting the ridge/valley temp

Thursday the upper level trough will continue to deepen across the
Mid Mississippi River Valley. This will aid in deepening a surface
low pressure and swing a frontal boundary toward the eastern KY
for Thursday afternoon. This will bring widespread much needed
rainfall to the region, as deep layer moisture progresses across
the region with PWATs greater than 1 inch. The next issue will be
the marginal chance for a strong to severe storm across the
region. This as unidirectional bulk shear increases to around 40
knots and modest destabilization occurs through the afternoon.
The destabilization is one of the bigger concerns, as cloud cover
ahead of this system could limit destabilization. Therefore
marginal severe setup with gusty winds being primary threat seems
reasonable at this point. Given some mid level dry air and if we
can get low level lapse rates approaching 7 to 8 c/km, as seen in
some of the model soundings.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 345 AM EDT WED OCT 19 2016

Available shortly...


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. We have
however seen some mid level clouds at around 5 to 6 KFT streaming
across portions of the region. Therefore kept SCT to BKN deck at
most sites through the night and into the day today. The only
site that may see better coverage of clouds is SYM, as they
remain closer to the boundary. Also introduced VCSH toward dawn
for SYM, as some showers moving out of Ohio are possible based on
consensus of the short term models. Winds have subsided and will
remain light through the period.




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