Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000
FXUS63 KJKL 291450
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1050 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1050 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

THE FORECAST WAS UPDATED TO REMOVE ANY MENTION OF MORNING FOG AND
AFTERNOON WORDING. OVERALL THE FORECAST STILL APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK
SO FAR TODAY. ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED SPRINKLES HAVE BEEN
POPPING UP ALONG THE VIRGINIA AND WEST VIRGINIA BORDERS SO FAR THIS
MORNING. BASED ON THE LATEST RUN OF THE HRRR MODEL IS SHOWING
ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SPRINKLES FORMING EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON DURING PEAK HEATING. THEREFORE WILL LET THE FORECAST
RIDE AS IS CONCERNING THIS AFTERNOONS PRECIPITATION CHANCE AND AREAL
COVERAGE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 802 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

REFRESHED GRIDS TO REFLECT EARLY MORNING OBS BLENDING INTO THE LATE
MORNING FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

SHOWERS FALLING FROM A HIGH CLOUD BASE WERE NEAR THE KY/VA BORDER
OVERNIGHT. THIS REGIME IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT TO THE SOUTHEAST
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. AFTER A LULL...THERE WILL BE A POTENTIAL FOR
MORE SHOWERS TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY AS HEATING LEADS TO SHALLOW
INSTABILITY. IT SHOULD BE CAPPED AROUND 650 MB. THIS LEVEL IS TOO
WARM FOR GLACIATION OF CLOUD TOPS...BUT ALLOWS FOR A DEEP ENOUGH
CLOUD TO PERHAPS GET SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES. THESE WILL DIE
OUT WITH LOSS OF HEATING MONDAY EVENING. DURING THE NIGHT...SLIGHTLY
DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE IN THE LOWER LEVELS...WHILE SLIGHT
WARMING OCCURS IN THE MID LEVELS. THIS WILL KEEP TUESDAY DRY AND
MOSTLY SUNNY WITH LITTLE OR NO CU DEVELOPMENT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

MODELS ARE STARTING TO WAVER A BIT WITH AN EXPECTED COLD FRONT ON
FRIDAY...BUT OVERALL STILL IN AGREEMENT ON WIDESPREAD SHOWERS FOR
EASTERN KENTUCKY AS IT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA. MODELS ARE ALSO
DIVERGING ON POSSIBLE SOLUTIONS HEADING THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
THUS...WHILE CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH ON PRECIPITATION
CHANCES...CONFIDENCE IS DEGRADED AROUND THE TIMING OF THE RAIN LATE
IN THE WEEK...THEN EXACTLY HOW COLD/CLOUDY IT WILL END UP THIS
WEEKEND.

THE PERIOD WILL START WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL...SETTING UP
DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS INTO THE DAY ON THURSDAY. A SHARP MID LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS WILL THEN PUSH ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY...DRAGGING A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. GOOD UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE...COMBINED WITH GOOD LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHOULD
PROVIDE PLENTY OF SUPPORT FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS. WHILE INSTABILITY
IS WEAK...FORCING MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO
PRODUCE A LIGHTNING STRIKE AS IT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA. THUS...WILL
MAINTAIN THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE 00Z ECMWF SUPPORTS
THE 12Z RUN WITH A FASTER SYSTEM...BRINGING PRECIPITATION IN FASTER
THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH EVERYTHING EXITING EARLIER ON FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...THE 00Z GFS HAS ALSO REMAINED SUPPORTIVE OF A SLOWER
SYSTEM...WITH MORE PRECIPITATION OCCURRING ON FRIDAY. THUS...WILL
MAINTAIN A LONGER PERIOD OF HIGHER POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS
UNCERTAINTY. REGARDLESS...THIS SYSTEM SHOULD PRODUCE DECENT LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAINFALL ACROSS THE AREA.

AS THE INITIAL FRONT DEPARTS...A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL BRING A
SURGE OF MUCH COLDER WEATHER INTO THE AREA FOR THE START OF THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND AS A 500MB VORT MAX PUSHES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.
THE 00Z ECMWF CUTS OFF THIS SYSTEM...WITH A MUCH SHARPER TROUGH
PUSHING SOUTH INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THIS SCENARIO WOULD
SUPPORT MORE CLOUDS AND MUCH COOLER READINGS. MEANWHILE...THE GFS
DOES NOT CUT OFF THIS SYSTEM...AND IS MUCH WEAKER WITH THE TROUGH.
GIVEN WE ARE HEADING INTO THE COLD SEASON...TENDENCY IS TO WANT TO
SUPPORT THE SHARPER TROUGH SEEN IN THE ECMWF AS THE PATTERN WOULD BE
SUPPORTIVE FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. THUS...STAYING WELL BELOW
GUIDANCE ON HIGHS AND LOWS FROM SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. IF
THINGS PLAY OUT AS THE ECMWF SUPPORTS...WE MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH 60
ON SATURDAY WITH LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO THE UPPER 30S/LOWER 40S.
AT THIS TIME...REGARDLESS WHICH SOLUTIONS PLAYS OUT...FROST APPEARS
UNLIKELY AS THE COLDER ECMWF WOULD SUPPORT MORE CLOUD COVER...AND
THE GFS SIMPLY WOULD NOT BE COLD ENOUGH. IN FACT... THE ECMWF MAY
SUPPORT A FEW RAIN SHOWERS ON SATURDAY OR SATURDAY NIGHT AS A VORT
MAX DROPS SOUTH INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. GOING TO LEAVE THINGS
DRY FOR NOW...BUT MAY NEED TO ADD SOME RAIN CHANCES IF THE ECMWF
GAINS SUPPORT. BY SUNDAY...WE SHOULD SEE THE AIR MASS PERHAPS START
TO MODIFY WITH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER
60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 1050 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2014

THE FOG AND LOW CIGS THAT HAD BEEN PLAGUING SOME OF THE TAF SITES
THIS MORNING HAS FINALLY BEGUN TO LIFT AND DISSIPATE. AT THIS
TIME...NONE OF THE TAF SITES ARE REPORTING. SME STILL HAD A CIG OF
300 FEET AT 1445Z...BUT THESE CLOUDS SHOULD SCATTER OUT QUICKLY BY
NOON TODAY. AFTER THAT IT LOOKS LIKE VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF
THE DAY.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AR
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...AR





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