Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000
FXUS63 KJKL 280223
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1023 PM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1023 PM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015

NO SUBSTANTIVE CHANGES WERE MADE. HAVE BLENDED EVENING OBS GRIDS INTO
THE FORECAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 757 PM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015

WITH NOTHING BUT PERHAPS SOME SPRINKLES LEFT...REMOVED THE POP
FROM THE FIRST PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA AS OF 1930Z FEATURE THE COLD
FRONT NOW CROSSING I-75 AND MOVING INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY. SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS STILL REMAIN AHEAD OF
THE FRONT CROSSING THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES ALONG HIGHWAY 80 AT
THIS TIME. SOME MINIMAL CAPE AND FORCING FROM THE FRONT HAS
ALLOWED FOR A FEW STORMS BUT THESE WILL BEGIN TO WANE AND OR PUSH
EAST OUT OF KENTUCKY THIS EVENING. GIVEN THE PROGRESSION OF THE
FRONT...AND OBS UPSTREAM...SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT THIS
EVENING AND INTO EARLY TONIGHT ESPECIALLY SINCE WITH THE HEATING
OF THE DAY ENDING...THE CU UPSTREAM WILL DIMINISH. WITH SURFACE
RIDGING NUDGING INTO KENTUCKY TONIGHT...THIS SUBSIDENCE WITH THE
SATURATED BOUNDARY LAYER AND COOLING TEMPS...AND LIGHT WINDS...FOG
WILL BE THE FORECAST CONCERN TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THE ONE PLACE
WHERE THIS WILL BE MOST PROMINENT WILL BE THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF
THE CWA. SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH FAR EASTERN AND NORTHERN
KENTUCKY.

RIDGING ENTERING THE AREA WILL MAKE FOR A RATHER PLEASANT DAY
ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY ON SUNDAY WITH LITTLE CLOUD COVER AND
TEMPS REBOUNDING INTO THE MID AND UPPER 70S. FLOW REMAINING
WESTERLY WILL LEAD TO DRIER CONDITIONS AS WELL AND THEREFORE A
MUCH LOWER HUMIDITY FOR SUNDAY. TIMING WITH THE NEXT FEATURE WILL
BE SOMEWHAT OF A CONCERN WITH NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUING. A
SHORTWAVE TRACKS OVER THE WESTERN RIDGE AND SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES AREA AND INTO THE OH VALLEY. THIS WILL BRING
AN MCS TO EASTERN KENTUCKY/S DOORSTEP LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING. THE FORECAST ISSUE HERE IS THAT INSTABILITY WILL
BE A BIT LACKING FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...ESPECIALLY WITH AN EARLY
MORNING ARRIVAL. FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE WITH THE FORECASTED
ARRIVAL TIME WITH THIS. FOR NOW...THE EARLY MORNING ARRIVAL AND
LACKING INSTABILITY SEEMS TO MATCH UP WELL WITH SPC/S SUGGESTED
MARGINAL THREAT ON MONDAY AND WILL MENTION A GENERAL THUNDERSTORM
POSSIBILITY IN THE HWO.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 PM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AN AMPLIFIED
LONG WAVE PATTERN TO REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE CONUS THROUGH MUCH
OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. A RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN CONTROL ACROSS THE
WEST...WITH TROUGHING RESIDING IN THE EAST. BY NEXT WEEKEND...THE
FLOW PATTERN WILL FLATTEN OUT. THIS WILL RESULT IN MORE UNSETTLED
WEATHER FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY...ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE
BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S.

CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW IN TIMING PASSING SHORT WAVE TROUGHS AS
WELL AS PREDICTING HOW SURFACE FEATURES WILL PLAY OUT...SO STUCK
CLOSE TO THE BLENDED GUIDANCE. DID ALLOW FOR A BIT MORE UNDERCUT
OF THE POPS DURING TIMES OF WEAKER FORCING...MAINLY DURING THE
NIGHTTIME PERIODS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 757 PM EDT SAT JUN 27 2015

VFR PREVAILED AT TAF ISSUANCE. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WERE
GUSTING AROUND 20 KTS OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF OUR AREA. THE
WINDS WILL DIE DOWN THIS EVENING. LATE TONIGHT...VALLEY FOG WILL
DEVELOP AND BRING VERY LOCALIZED IFR. THE ONLY TAF SITES EXPECTED
TO HAVE AN IMPACT ARE KSME AND KLOZ...WHERE MVFR IS FORECAST FOR A
BRIEF TIME AROUND SUNRISE.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...HAL


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