Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 141434
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1034 AM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1033 AM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

FORECAST IS STILL WELL ON TRACK THIS MORNING. FRESHENED UP HOURLY
TEMPS...DEW POINTS...AND WINDS BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL
GUIDANCE. FOG HAS BURNED OFF ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE LAST HOUR.
SENT OUT A NEW ZONE FORECAST TO REMOVE THE FOG WORDING FOR THE REST
OF THE DAY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 805 AM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

MAINLY FRESHENED UP THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES...DEW POINTS...AND SKY
COVER BASED ON THE LATEST TRENDS IN THE OBSERVATIONS. PATCHY
FOG/STRATUS IN THE DEEPER RIVER VALLEYS WILL BURN OFF BY AROUND 10
AM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 AM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY CENTERED ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES...WITH MUCH OF THE OHIO VALLEY REPORTING TEMPERATURES IN THE
40S. A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS ALIGNED FROM THE
CAROLINAS AS DOWN THROUGH THE GULF COAST. A COLD FRONT IS ALSO ALIGNED
ALONG THE NORTHERN PLAINS...STEMMING FROM AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN MANITOBA. ALOFT...UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING REMAINS ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES...WITH BROAD TROUGHING
IMPACTING THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...WITH
GENERALLY BENIGN WEATHER CONTINUING ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. HIGHS
WILL REBOUND A BIT BETTER TODAY...WITH MOST LOCATIONS MAKING IT INTO
THE LOW AND MID 70S. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT MAKES
ITS WAY TOWARDS NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT
WILL BE ON TAP...WITH LOWS BACK DOWN IN THE 40S IN THE NORTH...WITH
50S IN THE SOUTH...WHERE MORE CLOUD COVER WILL LINGER.

ON MONDAY...BETTER RETURN FLOW WILL ENSUE ACROSS THE AREA OUT AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. HIGHS WILL REBOUND TO THE MID AND UPPER
70S...WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND EVEN POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ENCROACHING
ON OUR AREA FROM VIRGINIA. WILL STILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST
GIVEN THE WEAK FORCING AVAILABLE...AND EVEN THE CONVECTION SENSITIVE
SREF MAINTAINS FAIRLY LOW POPS ON THE KENTUCKY SIDE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 AM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST BEGINS OM MONDAY NIGHT WITH AN
AMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL PATTERN AS A RIDGE BUILDS IN THE WEST AND
LIKEWISE...A TROUGH DIGS IN THE EASTERN CONUS. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...THE PATTERN FOR THE REST
OF THE EXTENDED LOOKS PRETTY BENIGN FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY. A FEW VERY
WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW DURING THE
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY TIME FRAME COUPLED WITH SOME TROPICAL LOWER
LEVEL MOISTURE MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF EASTERN KENTUCKY WILL KEEP
SHOWERS MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. BY FRIDAY...THE RIDGE
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN AS A STRONGER SHORTWAVE
MOVES EAST ACROSS THE PLAINS.

MODELS ARE GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED WITH
LITTLE TO NO POPS FOR THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY AND THE MODEL ALL BLEND SHOWS SOME AGREEMENT IN THIS
SOLUTION. THE LACK OF GOOD INSTABILITY THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WELL
WILL ONLY LEAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL AS WELL WITH THE LINGERING
LONGWAVE TROUGH THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. WITH SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE MAINTAINED OVER THE APPALACHIANS AS WELL...A DRY PERIOD
WILL PERSIST DURING THE TUESDAY TO FRIDAY PERIOD BEFORE A FRONT
FINALLY BEGINS TO IMPACT THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 805 AM EDT SUN SEP 14 2014

IFR OR WORSE FOG/STRATUS WILL LIFT AND DISSIPATE THROUGH
14Z...OTHERWISE SCATTERED TO BROKEN STRATOCU RANGING BETWEEN 3 AND
4K FEET AGL WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THERE LIKELY WILL BE
SOME THINNING THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...BEFORE THE CLOUDS
DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN DURING THE OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH
THE PERIOD...GENERALLY STARTING OUT FROM THE N AND NE...AND THEN
VEERING AROUND TO THE EAST LATE.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JMW
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN





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