Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000
FXUS63 KJKL 140632
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
232 AM EDT MON APR 14 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 232 AM EDT MON APR 14 2014

UPDATED TO REFINE POPS PER THE LAST SEVERAL RUNS OF THE HRRR. IT
LOOKS LIKE A WEAKENING BAND OF SHOWERS WILL PUSH EAST THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS AND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY. WITH DRY LOW LEVELS...THIS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
LIGHT AS IT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA AND WE MAY NOT EVEN MEASURE IN
SOME PLACES WITH THIS INITIAL BAND. IT THEN LOOKS INCREASINGLY LIKELY
WE WILL DRY OUT BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA. PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT WILL
HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE TONIGHT. THESE GRIDS HAVE BEEN UPDATED
ACCORDINGLY. THUNDER CHANCES LOOK MINIMAL THROUGH THE DAY WITH VERY
LITTLE INSTABILITY PRESENT. BETTER DEWPOINTS WILL ARRIVE TONIGHT JUST
AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND COULD PROVIDE A NARROW WINDOW FOR SOME THUNDER
AS THE FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME
NO REAL SEVERE THREAT ACROSS OUR NECK OF THE WOODS WITH ANY
INSTABILITY REMAINING ELEVATED. WINDS ARE RAMPING UP QUICKLY
OVERNIGHT AND WE MAY NEED SOME KIND OF WIND ADVISORY THROUGH THE DAY
TODAY. WINDS MAY BE AIDED BY THE WEAKENING SHOWERS AS THEY COULD MIX
DOWN SOME STRONGER WINDS FROM ALOFT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1110 PM EDT SUN APR 13 2014

DID A QUICK UPDATE TO THE GRIDS TO REFLECT THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS
FOR TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS
SPOTTY RIDGE AND VALLEY DIFFERENCES CONTINUE...ESPECIALLY EAST.
THESE HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 745 PM EDT SUN APR 13 2014

23Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS DEEP LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST OUT OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS IS RESPONSIBLE...IN A LARGE PART...FOR THE
WARM...RECORD AND NEAR RECORD FOR THE DATE...AND BREEZY...
ESPECIALLY WEST...DAY THAT MOST OF EAST KENTUCKY ENJOYED. ON THE DOWN
SIDE...IT DID NOT DO MUCH TO HELP CONTAIN SOME OF THE ON-GOING FIRES
ACROSS THE AREA. ONE JUST OVER LETCHER/S BORDER WITH WISE COUNTY IN
VIRGINIA SHOWS UP QUITE WELL ON SATELLITE AND HAS BEEN SENDING SMOKE
INTO PIKE COUNTY THROUGH THE DAY. EXPECT THE LOWER HUMIDITIES AND
WARM BREEZES TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING FOR RIDGETOP
LOCATIONS WHILE THE VALLEYS SHOULD BE ABLE TO DECOUPLE AND GET A BIT
COOLER AND HAVE HIGHER HUMIDITIES DUE TO THE LIGHTER WINDS AND LACK
OF MIXING. EXPECT MANY VALLEY LOWS TO OCCUR DURING THE LATE EVENING
AND EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS BEFORE TEMPERATURES REBOUND TOWARD DAWN AS
THE INVERSION BREAKS WITH THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. CIRRUS AND
ADDITIONAL HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE AREA THOUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS
WILL MITIGATE THE VALLEY DROP OFF TO SOME EXTENT...BUT STILL EXPECT
IT TO BE SUBSTANTIAL ENOUGH FOR SPLIT WORDING IN THE ZONES. SOME
SHOWERS MAY MOVE INTO FAR WESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA TOWARDS DAWN...BUT
THE BULK OF THE CONVECTION WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL MID MORNING FOR MOST
PLACES. HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS WITH THIS IDEA IN MIND AND THESE HAVE
BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS. WILL ALSO UPDATE THE ZONES TO
REMOVE SOME OF THE TRANSITIONAL WORDING FOR THIS EVENING. THESE WILL
BE ISSUED SHORTLY WITH AN HWO UPDATE TO FOLLOW AS THE FIRE THREAT
WANES LATER THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 432 PM EDT SUN APR 13 2014

THE LATEST SURFACE MAP FEATURES HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ATLANTIC...WITH LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...WITH A STATIONARY STRETCHED NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
STOUT BAROCLINICITY IS IN PLACE AS EXEMPLIFIED IN KANSAS...WHERE
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MID 70S IN THE SOUTHWEST PART OF THE
STATE...WHILE LOWER TO MID 30S ARE PRESENT ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE
BOUNDARY IN THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE STATE.

EASTERN KENTUCKY REMAINS RIGHT IN THE MIDDLE OF THE TWO AFOREMENTIONED
SURFACE FEATURES...ENJOYING NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH SOME
BREEZY CONDITIONS UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE DYNAMIC STORM SYSTEM
TO AFFECT OUR AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. TONIGHT WILL FEATURE SOME
THINNESS IN THE CIRRUS SHIELD...ALLOWING FOR SOME OF THE EASTERN
VALLEYS A QUICK DROP OFF INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S...OTHERWISE MOST
OTHER LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S.
SOUTH WINDS WILL STAY UP AND CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY IN THE BROADER
VALLEYS OUT WEST AND THE BLUEGRASS...BESIDES A BRIEF DROP DOWN INTO
THE EARLY EVENING. A FEW SHOWERS MAY ENCROACH UPON THE WEST TOWARDS
DAWN.

THE FRONT WILL MAKE STEADY PROGRESS TOWARDS THE AREA ON MONDAY...WITH
ALL BUT PERHAPS THE EXTREME EAST SEEING MEASURABLE RAINFALL BEFORE
THE DAY IS OUT. ANOTHER BREEZY DAY IS EXPECTED WITH STRONGER WINDS IN
PLACE ALOFT AND A GOOD PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUING AT THE SURFACE.
SOME INSTABILITY OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT SUPPORTS AT LEAST MAINTAINING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.

THE MORE SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE IN MONDAY NIGHT...AS A
DEEP TROUGH MOVES IN FROM THE WEST...ALLOWING FOR SOME SURFACE WAVE
DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT AS IT MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE
APPALACHIANS. COLDER AIR WILL WRAP IN QUICKLY TOWARDS DAWN TUESDAY
MORNING...WITH SOME SNOW STILL LOOKING LIKE A GOOD BET...ALTHOUGH
WITH SUCH WARM GROUND TEMPERATURES...NO ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED AT
THE MAJORITY OF LOCATIONS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. THE NAM IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THE COLDER AIR WHILE
LINGERING THE MOISTURE LONGER...SUGGESTING SOME DECENT ACCUMULATION
FOR THE SOUTHEAST HIGH TERRAIN. THE GFS HAS TRENDED A BIT
COLDER...BUT NOTHING LIKE THE NAM...SO HAVE STUCK CLOSER TO THE
INHERITED NUMBERS...WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES AT AND ABOVE 2000 FEET...AND
PERHAPS A BIT MORE ON TOP OF BLACK MOUNTAIN.

TEMPERATURES WILL TAKE A NOSE DIVE BEHIND THE FRONT ON TUESDAY...WITH
HIGHS STRUGGLING TO MAKE IT INTO THE 40S...WITH RIDGETOPS LIKELY
REMAINING IN THE 30S. PRECIPITATION WILL COME TO AN END FROM WEST TO
EAST BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 432 PM EDT SUN APR 13 2014

NOT THE BEST OF AGREEMENT AMONGST THE MODELS IN THE EXTENDED. THE
ECMWF CAME IN WEAKER AND SLOWER WITH ITS WEATHER SYSTEM FOR THE
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY TIME FRAME THAN THE GFS DID. THE LATEST HPC
GUIDANCE AND NAEFS WERE ALSO DIFFERENT THAN THE GFS AND ECMWF
SOLUTIONS WITH THEIR OVERALL LARGE SCALE PATTERN AND TIMING OF THE
WEATHER SYSTEM AT THE END OF THE WEEK. THAT ALL BEING SAID...USED
PRETTY MUCH THE STRAIGHT MODEL BLEND FROM THE EXTENDED FORECAST
TOOL...WITH A FEW ADJUSTMENTS MADE HERE AND THERE.

THE INITIAL FORECAST ISSUE WILL BE THE BLAST OF COLD AIR EXPECTED TO
DESCEND UPON THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND...TO SOME EXTENT...WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THE COLDEST AIR WE HAVE SEEN IN AWHILE WILL LIKELY SETTLE
OVER THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...AS A FRIGID AIR MASS MOVES IN BEHIND A
DEPARTING COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA ARE EXPECTED TO
PLUMMET INTO THE 20S AREA WIDE...WITH SOME OF THE COLDER VALLEYS
PERHAPS DROPPING INTO THE LOWER 20S. AS A RESULT...WIDESPREAD FROST
AND A HARD FREEZE LOOKING INCREASINGLY LIKELY. THE LATEST MOS
GUIDANCE ALL CAME IN QUITE A BIT COLDER THAN YESTERDAY...BUT WAS
STILL NOT QUITE COLD ENOUGH ACROSS THE BOARD. THEREFORE...ONLY A FEW
MINOR TWEAKS TO TUESDAY NIGHTS TEMPERATURES WERE MADE...AS THEY
ALREADY LOOKED PRETTY GOOD. A FREEZE WATCH AND OR WARNING WILL
PROBABLY BE NEEDED AT SOME POINT TO ADDRESS THE COLD OUTBREAK
TUESDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER FROST EVENT IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE 30S ACROSS THE
AREA. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO REBOUND QUITE NICELY ON
WEDNESDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA AND THE AIR MASS
MODIFIED DURING THE DAY UNDER AMPLE SUNSHINE. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY ARE
FORECAST TO MAKE IT INTO THE 50S...WHICH WILL SEEM QUITE NICE AFTER
HIGHS IN THE 30S AND 40S ON TUESDAY. A NICE WARM UP WILL BE ON TAP
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH DAYTIME HIGHS
PERHAPS TOPPING IN THE 60S EACH DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS AND
THE AIR MASS MODIFIES EVEN MORE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 232 AM EDT MON APR 14 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD.
THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THEN WINDS
WILL RAMP UP BY MORNING WITH GUSTY SOUTH WINDS ANTICIPATED AND THESE
GUSTS COULD REACH AROUND 30 KNOTS AT TIMES THROUGH THE DAY. A FEW
ISOLATED HIGHER WIND GUSTS COULD ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND
SHOWERS WHICH WILL BE ARRIVING AROUND DAYBREAK IN THE WEST. A SHARP
WIND SHIFT IS ANTICIPATED TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS
EASTERN KENTUCKY. THIS WIND SHIFT WILL LIKELY OCCUR CLOSER TO
MIDNIGHT OR LATER AS WINDS GO FROM THE SOUTH TO THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST. IN ADDITION...WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL OVERSPREAD THE
AREA LATE TONIGHT WITH CIGS COMING DOWN LATE TONIGHT TO MVFR OR
LOWER.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KAS
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...KAS





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