Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KJKL 130552
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
1252 AM EST Sat Jan 13 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1043 PM EST FRI JAN 12 2018

The band of snow that produced appreciable amounts in western and
parts of central KY and TN is starting to look less prolific that
it did earlier. This is likely due to the low starting to
reorganize over the mid Atlantic states and another deformation
band many form northeast of the area later tonight. High Res
guidance brings the weakening band across the area overnight.
Ahead of this band, some upslope enhancement is occurring to the
precipitation in the southeast at this time and upslope flow will
have some influence on qpf and snow amounts as the band works
east. The band should shift east across the northwestern two
thirds of the area over the next few hours. However, given recent
downward trends in qpf and weaker radar presentation of the
incoming band amounts should average 1 to 3 inches across the
area. The far southeast should mainly be in the 1 to 2 inch range
with locally 3 inches from upslope enhancements. If the main band
holds together somewhat a stray 4 inch storm total may still be
possible in Fleming County.

As temperatures continue to fall into and through the 20s and into
the teens in the north, impacts to highways will still exist and
untreated or secondary roads, bridges, and overpass will likely
lead to hazardous travel.

UPDATE Issued at 718 PM EST FRI JAN 12 2018

Reports of rain changing to snow or a mix of sleet and freezing
rain or even all sleet from Rowan County to Whitley County. AWOS
sites at EKQ and SME are reporting all snow with spotter reports
of snow in Rockcastle, Mccreary, and Whitely counties as well.
Precipitation is expected to continue to change to transition
from rain to snow with a mix during the transition over the next 4
hours. Latest trends in QPF and snow ratios as well as surface
temperature curve supports the previous forecast snowfall with 1
to 3 inches for most locations. Some spotty amounts a little over
3 inches are possible north of I 64 with the northern half of
Fleming expected to average near 4 inches. Other than minor
adjustments to precipitation type and temperatures based on
observations no significant changes were needed at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 243 PM EST FRI JAN 12 2018

A negatively tilted shortwave trough will push northeast across
the region through tonight. An area of low pressure over
Tennessee will push northeast across far southeast Kentucky
tonight associated with this wave. As the system strengthens,
colder air currently off to our west will get pulled east with a
changeover from rain to snow this evening. We do lose ice for a
short time this evening under the dry slot, so we could see a
period of freezing drizzle as temperatures drop to or just below
freezing. However, shouldn`t see much impact except for elevated
surfaces as ground temperatures are still fairly warm. Ice will be
quickly reintroduced into the low level clouds later this evening
as the low levels cool off rapidly. This will bring the threat of
snow into the area after 6 or 7 pm. Expected snowfall for this
event has not changed, but given amounts in the north are close to
warning, generally 3 to 4, it would not take much to push us
over. Thus, we have coordinated with Charleston and Wilmington to
issue a winter storm warning for Fleming county. Still looks to be
a borderline warning situation, but close enough to pull the
trigger. The rest of the area still looking at a solid 1 to 3
inches of snowfall as the wrap around moisture swings across the
area tonight. With temperatures dropping into the upper teens to
lower 20s by dawn, icy conditions will develop on untreated roads.

Snow will come to an end early Saturday morning, but some flurries
or light snow showers could hold on into the afternoon.
Temperatures will hold fairly steady through the day with cold
advection and cloud cover holding on. We may see clouds hold on
through Saturday night and if this is the case, the flurries could
continue as well. Will generally stay close to blended guidance
for Saturday night lows given the uncertainty with the cloud
cover.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 438 PM EST FRI JAN 12 2018

An overall cold period is in store, with an eastern North American
trough dominating our weather until late in the week. An upper low
is expected to drop south in the trough Sunday and Monday, with an
associated surface low sending a cold front through Kentucky late
Monday and Monday night. Warm air advection/overrunning along the
front should bring clouds and potentially some light snow to the
JKL forecast area mainly Monday night into Tuesday. After above
freezing temps on Monday, the cold front will send us back into
the deep freeze. Lows Tuesday night and Wednesday night should be
in the single digits, and highs Tuesday and Wednesday below
freezing. Late in the week the upper trough/low shifts eastward
and gets replaced by ridging over the eastern CONUS, with a
return of warm air advection and temps expected to climb well
above freezing on Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
ISSUED AT 1252 AM EST SAT JAN 13 2018

MVFR to IFR conditions still plaguing much of eastern Kentucky as
light snow continues to fall across much of the local airspace.
SYM has been experiencing LIFR visibilities and ceilings, but
these should improve within the next couple of hours as snow
diminishes in coverage/intensity. Northwest winds will continue to
gust upwards of 20-25 knots through the night into early Saturday
morning as the snow tapers to mainly flurries after daybreak.
Speeds should then gradually decrease through the day as MVFR and
eventually VFR ceilings return.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for
KYZ050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.

Winter Storm Warning until 7 AM EST this morning for KYZ044.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...GUSEMAN



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.