Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 190520

National Weather Service Jackson KY
120 AM EDT Wed Oct 19 2016

Issued at 749 PM EDT TUE OCT 18 2016

Forecast remains on track. Updated hourly NDFD for latest
observational trends. Main forecast challenge in the near term
will be sky cover for the overnight period and impact on
temperatures. A band of clouds extending from western KY through
southern OH continues to advance southeast, just now getting into
the extreme northern part of Fleming County. It is uncertain how
far southeast this cloud band will make it tonight. Most of the
high resolution short range models currently have this band too
far to the northwest. Updated sky cover grids with idea that
clouds will gradually spread across the forecast area during the
overnight period. This is generally in line with previous
forecast, with only some timing differences showing up.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 400 PM EDT TUE OCT 18 2016

A cold front is pushing southeast across the Midwest and should
reach the Ohio River by about dawn on Wednesday. This system will
stall out right along the Ohio River as it loses its upper level
support and Mid/upper level heights begin to increase aloft. A
stronger upstream trough will drop into the Missouri-Mississippi
valley regions Wednesday night and produce a sfc wave or low over
the lower Ohio Valley which will then ride up the Ohio River
reaching SDF by early Thursday morning. Together these features
will bring an increasing threat of precipitation to portions of
our area beginning late tonight into Wednesday afternoon for areas
along and north of the Interstate 64 corridor and then further
south and east Wednesday night. Regardless PoPs will remain low
ahead of the main event just beyond the short term. We can expect
slight to low chance PoPs where the threat of rain exists. Best
chance for thunder appears to be during the afternoon Wednesday,
generally along and north of Interstate 64. Any thunder would be
Isold to Sct in coverage. Better instability is lacking otherwise
and mainly elevated in nature. However, did keep some Isold
thunder in the forecast for early Wednesday evening.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 400| PM EDT TUE OCT 18 2016

A sharp mid level trough will drive a strong cold front eastward
across Kentucky on Thursday with widespread precipitation expected.
The best chances of rain will come during the afternoon and evening
hours with the frontal passage.  Instability will increase ahead of
the approaching front with surface LI`s dropping to -4.  We also
have some modest SW unidirectional shear in place which could
support a few bowing structures with any storms that can develop.
DCAPE is getting up there as well and could support some downburst
winds.  Thus, will introduce the mention of a few storms containing
some strong winds.  Thunder threat will decrease as the front
departs Thursday evening, but some clouds and showers could linger
behind the front well into Friday morning.  Still some question as
to how long clouds will linger into Friday afternoon and evening and
its possible we continue to deal with cloud cover through Friday
night.  However, as the mid level ridge builds in on Saturday, any
remaining cloud cover will exit, leaving behind mainly clear skies
for the rest of the weekend.  Highs on Friday and Saturday will take
a large step downwards with readings only in the 50s. Despite the
cool highs, conditions never really come together for a good freeze
or frost, so as of right now, looks like we might be able to squeeze
past this weekend without a frost or freeze.  Still wouldn`t rule
out some patchy frost in some of the deeper eastern valleys late
Saturday night.  Airmass will moderate as we head into Sunday and
next week with highs back into the 60s. High pressure will generally
be in control from Saturday onward, leading to another extended dry
stretch of weather well into next week.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. We have
however seen some mid level clouds at around 5 to 6 KFT streaming
across portions of the region. Therefore kept SCT to BKN deck at
most sites through the night and into the day today. The only
site that may see better coverage of clouds is SYM, as they
remain closer to the boundary. Also introduced VCSH toward dawn
for SYM, as some showers moving out of Ohio are possible based on
consensus of the short term models. Winds have subsided and will
remain light through the period.




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