000
FXUS63 KJKL 140820 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
420 AM EDT FRI JUN 14 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM EDT FRI JUN 14 2013

EARLY THIS MORNING...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDED NORTH THROUGH
THE CENTRAL CONUS INTO SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA WITH A TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES AND OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS AND EASTERN SEABOARD.
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS CENTERED NEAR THE BIG BEND REGION OF THE RED
RIVER VALLEY. AT THE SFC...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WAS NOSING INTO
THE OH AND TN VALLEYS AND CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WITH THE
COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE AREA ON THU NOW OVER THE GULF COAST
STATES AS THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF LONG ISLAND AND CAPE COD.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE OH AND TN
VALLEYS AND THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE CENTER OF THE
RIDGE MOVING FROM THE ARKLATEX REGION TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY/NORTH
CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO REGION. THIS RIDGING WILL BECOME FLATTER
THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE UPPER LEVEL GETS LIFTED NORTH AS THE SHORTWAVE
TROUGH MOVES FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AN
ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE PLAINS AND INTO THE
UPPER MS VALLEY AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD. AS THE UPPER LOW OPENS UP INTO AN OPEN WAVE AND THE SHORTWAVE
WORKS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE
MIDWEST AND PLAINS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH ONLY DEBRIS CLOUDS
WORKING AROUND THE RIDGING POSSIBLY WORKING INTO THE AREA BY LATE
SATURDAY.

OVERALL...THE SHORT TERM WILL BE DRY AND QUIET WITH TEMPERATURES A
BIT BELOW NORMAL THROUGH TONIGHT AND MODERATING TO NEAR NORMAL ON
SATURDAY. VALLEY FOG COULD INITIALLY BE DENSE IN SOME LOCATIONS
THROUGH AN HOUR OR TWO PAST DAWN. MOISTURE NEAR 800 MB SHOULD LEAD TO
A DIURNAL CU FIELD TODAY THAT SHOULD WANE BY EVENING. RIVER VALLEY
FOG SHOULD ALSO DEVELOP TONIGHT BUT SHOULD BE LESS WIDESPREAD AND
NOT AS SIGNIFICANT AS WHAT IS OCCURRING ATTM.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 420 AM EDT FRI JUN 14 2013

THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT...KEEPING THE LONG WAVE PATTERN
MORE ZONAL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH SOME AMPLIFICATION
TAKING PLACE THEREAFTER. HUMIDITY WILL BE ON THE INCREASE BY
SUNDAY...AS SOUTHWEST FLOW COMMENCES ONCE AGAIN. A COLD FRONT WILL
GRADUALLY SAG SOUTH ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY...WITH OCCASIONAL SHORT
WAVE TROUGHS TRAVERSING THE FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL KEEP UNSETTLED
WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHANCES
STILL LOOKING LIKE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

A MORE DECISIVE TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE THROUGH BY TUESDAY
NIGHT...EXITING THE COLD FRONT OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN TAKE CONTROL...PROVIDING DRY WEATHER FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...AS WELL AS ANOTHER REPRIEVE FROM THE HUMIDITY FOR A FEW
DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 235 AM EDT FRI JUN 14 2013

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA DURING THE PERIOD AND BRING
MAINLY VFR. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE VALLEY FOG AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR IT TO AFFECT ALL THREE TAF SITES TONIGHT. OF THE THREE TAF SITES
LOZ WOULD APPEAR TO BE MOST PRONE FOR MVFR FOG...BUT DEW POINTS HAVE
RECENTLY CLIMBED AT SME AND SOME MVFR FOG SEEMS POSSIBLE THERE AS
WELL. JKL MAY BE AFFECTED BY MVFR FOG LIFTING OUT OF THE VALLEYS AN
HOUR OR TWO EITHER SIDE OF 11Z. RIVER VALLEY LOCATIONS SUCH AS 1A6
AND I35 COULD FALL TO IFR OR EVEN NEAR AIRPORT MINS. THE FOG WILL
BURN OFF QUICKLY BY 13Z...SETTING UP A VFR DAY WITH A SCT-BKN 5KFT
CU FIELD.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...JP