Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 301748
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
148 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 9 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

A FEW SHOWERS HAVE ALREADY POPPED UP ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CWA THIS
MORNING. WHILE IT APPEARS THAT THEY ARE DIMINISHING ON
RADAR...DECIDED TO GO AHEAD AND START THE ISOLATED POPS AN HOUR
OR SO EARLIER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED. ALSO...WE ONLY HAVE A
COUPLE SITES ACROSS THE REGION REPORTING FOG AS OF 13Z...AND THE
ONES THAT ARE SEEM TO BE SHOWING RAPIDLY INCREASING VISIBILITIES.
AS SUCH...WENT AHEAD AND REMOVED FOG FROM ONGOING FORECAST AS IT
SHOULD BE COMPLETELY BURNED OFF DURING THE 13Z HOUR.
FINALLY...LOADED IN THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS FOR TEMPS...DEW
POINTS...AND WINDS...TO MAKE SURE THE CURRENT NEAR TERM FORECAST
WAS WELL ON TRACK WITH THE ONGOING CONDITIONS. AN UPDATE TO THE
ZONE FORECAST WAS SENT OUT TO REFLECT THESE CHANGES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 655 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

SENT OUT AN UPDATE TO THE GRIDS THIS MORNING TO INPUT THE LATEST
OBS IN. OVERALL THE FORECAST REMAINS LARGELY ON TRACK WITH SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS STILL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY THIS AFTERNOON.
EVEN NOW SOME SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST AND
EXPECTED TO EVENTUALLY MOVE INTO THE AREA LATER. SO UPDATED THE
GRIDS AND SENT THEM TO NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FEATURE SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO THE
OH VALLEY REGION AHEAD OF A STALLED BOUNDARY STRETCHING FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE UPPER OH VALLEY. ALSO DURING THIS
TIME...A SEPARATE SLUG OF MOISTURE PUSHES NORTHWARD INTO THE FL
AND GA COASTLINE. THIS SURGE OF WARMER AND MOIST AIR WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE DAY TODAY AS THE LOW TRACKS NORTH AND EAST OVER THE
CAROLINAS. MEANWHILE A SEPARATE LOW CENTER JUST OFF THE SOUTH FL
COAST TRACKS NORTHWEST AND NORTH INTO THE AL AND FL PANHANDLE
TRACKING INLAND INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS AS WELL...THIS BEING
THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA. THIS CLUSTER OF CIRCULATIONS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST AND THE WEAK BOUNDARY SLOWLY SLIDING EAST WILL PROVIDE
AN INFLUX OF MOISTURE NEAR THE SURFACE INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY FOR
TODAY AND TOMORROW. THIS IS OCCURRING UNDERNEATH A BROAD UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND WILL BE FOR THE SHORT TERM.

ACCORDING TO THE MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR TODAY AND TOMORROW...AN EVER
PRESENT WEAK MID LEVEL CAP SEEMS TO BE IN PLACE UNDER THIS
PATTERN BUT STILL WITH ENOUGH SURFACE INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE FOR
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN DIURNALLY DEPENDENT THROUGH THE
PERIOD...ESPECIALLY WITH THE LACK OF ANY GOOD SURFACE GRADIENT IN
THIS PATTERN. SO WILL KEEP SOME SLIGHT AND CHANCE POPS THIS
AFTERNOON AND AGAIN INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH AN EMPHASIS ON THE
TERRAIN AREAS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 354 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED WITH THE LONG
WAVE PATTERN GRADUALLY AMPLIFYING WITH TIME THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEKEND. TROUGHING WILL BE INCREASINGLY ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE LOWER 48...WITH RIDGING TAKING HOLD ACROSS
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION. THERE ARE SUBTLE DIFFERENCES WITHIN
THE SMALLER SCALE FEATURES...SO STUCK CLOSE TO THE BLENDED
GUIDANCE...WHILE MITIGATING SOME OF THE TYPICAL SHORTCOMINGS GIVEN
THE PATTERN.

THIS WILL RESULT IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH BOUTS OF MAINLY ISOLATED
CONVECTION DURING THE DIURNALLY FAVORED PERIODS. HIGHS WILL AVERAGE
IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WITH A FEW
90 DEGREE READINGS LOOKING LIKE A GOOD BET TOWARDS NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 144 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO PLAGUE MOST OF EASTERN KY.
FROM THESE CLOUDS WE ARE SEEING RADAR RETURNS THAT WOULD SIGNIFY
RAIN. HOWEVER...SO FAR...MOST OF THIS MOISTURE HAS BEEN ELEVATED
AND HAS NOT REACHED THE GROUND. GIVEN THE LACK OF COVERAGE THIS
AFTERNOON...WENT AHEAD AND REMOVED MENTION OF VCTS FOR THE REST OF
THE AFTERNOON/ WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KSME WHO COULD SEE SOME
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO/. DON/T WANT TO RULE
OUT RAIN COMPLETELY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT LACK OF COVERAGE AT THIS
POINT MAKES IT HARD TO KNOW EXACTLY WHEN OR EVEN IF A SPECIFIC TAF
SITE WILL BE IMPACTED. AS WE LOSE DAYTIME HEATING THIS
EVENING...SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE ALL TOGETHER. LATEST NAM
SOUNDINGS AND GFS GUIDANCE ARE STILL POINTING AT FOG DEVELOPMENT
BETWEEN 9 AND 12Z DESPITE SOME LINGERING CLOUDS. CONFIDENCE IN
THIS IS LOW...ESPECIALLY WHEN IT COMES TO THE INTENSITY OF THE FOG
AT EACH TAF SITE...SO JUST TRENDED TOWARDS MVFR AT THIS TIME. BY
TOMORROW...EXPECT MORE OF THE SAME AS TODAY...WITH FOG
DISSIPATING IN THE MORNING AND A DIURNAL CU DECK SETTING UP ALONG
THE MVFR/VFR ZONE. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...BUT GIVEN THE LOW POPS AND UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING AND
LOCATION...DID NOT INCLUDE IN TAF.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JMW
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...JMW



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