Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 270053
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
853 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 853 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

SENT OUT AN UPDATE TO REMOVE THE EVENING WORDING. CLOUDS HAVE
CONTINUED TO CLEAR ACROSS THE AREA WITH JUST A FEW POCKETS LEFT
OUT THERE. WHILE TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED A BIT FASTER THAN
FORECAST...WE SHOULD STILL BE ON TRACK FOR THE FORECAST LOWS
DESPITE THE FASTER DROP OFF THIS EVENING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 524 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

UPDATED TO LESSEN THE CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE EVENING AS CLOUDS
HAVE PEAKED AND ARE GIVING WAY TO MORE SUNSHINE IN THE PAST FEW
HOURS. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO BETTER RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 304 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

MID LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY
WILL CONTINUE TO RELAX AND LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST WHILE SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS EAST FROM THE MS VALLEY INTO THE GREAT LAKES
AND OH VALLEY. THE DRY MILD AIR MASS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE
HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BRING US A TASTE OF EARLY FALL LIKE WEATHER.

THE SHORT TERM PART OF THE FORECAST REMAINS A TEMPERATURE AND SKY
COVER FORECAST. THE CU/SC FIELD THAT RAPIDLY DEVELOPED EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON IS MUCH MORE EXTENSIVE THAN YESTERDAY. THE CLOUDS SHOULD
ONCE AGAIN LINGER INTO THE NIGHT...BUT WITH THE RELAXING OF THE MID
LEVEL TROUGH LATER TONIGHT DO THINK THE CLOUDS WILL EVENTUALLY
SCATTER OUT. LAST NIGHT THE CLOUDS LINGERED LONGER THAN EXPECTED
AND THIS RESULTED IN TEMPERATURES NOT GETTING AS COOL AS FORECAST
IN MOST AREAS. FORECAST WILL HAVE CLOUDS LINGERING LONGER TONIGHT
THAN MODELS SUGGEST...BUT NOT AS LONG AS LAST NIGHT. WILL ALLOW
FOR SMALL RIDGE VALLEY TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE TONIGHT BUT NOT AS
LARGE AS IF SKIES WERE CLEAR THROUGH THE NIGHT. WITH THE SURFACE
HIGH SLIDING TO OUR EAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND LESS CLOUD COVER...THE
RIDGE VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT WILL BE GREATER FOR FRIDAY MORNING
MINIMUMS. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES
WARMER THAN TODAY WITH MORE SUNSHINE AND THE MID LEVEL TROUGH NOT
AS DEEP. IT WILL STILL BE MILD THOUGH WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE
UPPER 70S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 3O4 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

MODELS ARE ONLY IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH MID AND UPPER LEVEL PATTERNS.
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND DRIFT
SLOWLY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...OHIO VALLEY REGION FROM SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL ALSO LIFT OUT OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO SATURDAY AND MAY PARTIALLY PHASE WITH THE MAIN SHORTWAVE OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...OR SUNDAY PROPER. THIS
SYSTEM EVENTUALLY EXITS TO OUR EAST BY THE END OF THE EXTENDED
FORECAST WINDOW. A BIG SPREAD IN ENSEMBLE MEMBERS HANDING THIS
SYSTEM ONLY A LITTLE OVER 72 HOURS INTO THE FORECAST IS LEADING TO A
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST WITH RESPECT TO THE EVOLUTION OF
THIS SYSTEM.

THE 0Z ECMWF...SLOWER AND MORE CONSOLIDATED WITH THE MAIN SHORTWAVE
CARRIES THE ADDITIONAL ENERGY FROM THE GULF OFF TO THE NORTHEAST
SHOWING LITTLE IF ANY INTERACTION WITH THE MAIN SHORTWAVE SYSTEM.
THE 06/12Z GFS SPLITS THE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE MAIN
SHORTWAVE...THUS ADVERTISING A MORE DISORGANIZED SYSTEM AS PART OF
ITS ENERGY RIDES QUICKLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND PART OF
IT DIGS FURTHER SOUTH INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI/LOWER OHIO VALLEY BY
EARLY SUNDAY. THE GFS THEN SHOWS AT LEAST SOME PARTIAL PHASING WITH
WITH THE DISTURBANCE LIFTING OUT OF THE GULF.

APPLYING A BROAD BRUSH APPROACH TO THE FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
DIFFERENCES/INCONSISTENCIES IN THE MID/UPPER LEVEL PATTERNS...WE
APPEAR TO BE HEADING INTO A MORE SEASONABLE LATE SUMMER TIME TYPE
WEATHER PATTERN. LOOK FOR THE RETURN OF HEAT AND MOISTURE THROUGH
THE PERIOD ALONG WITH AN INCREASING THREAT OF MAINLY DIURNALLY
DRIVEN AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WOULD
EXPECT THAT USING A BLEND OF MODEL SOLUTIONS AND GUIDANCE SHOULD
HANDLE TRENDS EXCEPTIONALLY WELL. BASICALLY EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
CLIMB BACK UP TO NORMAL VALUES...AND ISOLD TO SCT POPS TO BE THE
RULE THROUGH THE BULK OF THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 117 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO CONTROL OUR WEATHER WITH
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING THROUGH THE NEXT 36 HOURS. AN EXTENSIVE
BROKEN TO OVERCAST CLOUD DECK AROUND 5K FEET WILL BE SLOW TO
DISSIPATE TONIGHT...BUT CLOUDS SHOULD EVENTUALLY SCATTER OUT. ANY
FOG FORMATION TONIGHT WILL DEPEND ON HOW LONG THE CLOUDS
LINGER...WITH FOG FORMATION LESS LIKELY THE LONGER THE CLOUDS
LAST. AT THIS POINT WILL INCLUDE A COUPLE OF HOURS OF MVFR
VISIBILITY AT SME AROUND DAWN...BUT WILL KEEP ALL OTHER TAF SITES
AT VFR.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KAS
SHORT TERM...SBH
LONG TERM...RAY
AVIATION...SBH



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