Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000
FXUS63 KJKL 200745
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
345 AM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

03Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS FRONT HAS MOVED SOUTH OF THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY AND CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BROADLY CENTERED ACROSS THE
UPPER PLAINS. IN THE UPPER LEVELS THE RIDGING THAT HAS BEEN IN
PLACE HAS FLATTENED WITH MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW IN THE WAKE. MUCH
DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS PREVAIL BEHIND THE FRONT THAT USHERED
IN NORTHERLY FLOW. WE HAVE BEEN ABLE TO STAY FAIRLY MIXED
OVERNIGHT GIVEN THE PLACEMENT OF THE SURFACE HIGH...SO SEEING A
MORE SUBTLE RIDGE/VALLEY SPLIT THIS MORNING. DID OPT KEEP MENTION
OF VALLEY FOG...HOWEVER GIVEN THE MIXING MOST PLACES WILL SEE
LITTLE IF ANY ISSUES THIS MORNING. TODAY WILL FEATURE MOSTLY SUNNY
DAY WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING IN FROM THE WEST. A FEW MORE
CLOUDS WILL WORK THERE WAY INTO THE FAR WEST LATE IN THE DAY.

ALL EYES THEN TURN TO UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY ACROSS
THE PLAINS. THIS WILL BE THE NEXT FEATURE TO BRING POSSIBILITY OF
SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN KY TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. A COUPLE OF
ISSUES TO MENTION IS THE VERY DRY AIR IN PLACE AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM AND THE FACT THAT THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM DOES WEAKEN/SHEAR
OUT AS IT MOVES EAST...HOWEVER THAT SAID MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO
INCREASE POP CHANCES WITH GFS BEING THE WEAKEST. GIVEN THIS TREND
DID COME UP SOME WITH REGARDS TO POPS BUT STAYED IN THE HIGH RANGE
OF CHANCE. ALSO DID KEEP ALL ACTIVITY AS JUST RAIN SHOWERS AT THIS
POINT...HOWEVER NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO HINT AT A BIT MORE
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE SOUTH NEAR THE TN BORDER. THIS WILL HAVE
TO BE LOOKED AT CLOSER IN SUBSEQUENT FORECAST UPDATES BUT WOULD
THINK WE WOULD ONLY BE LOOKING AT ISOLATED CHANCES IF THAT.
OTHERWISE DID BUMP PREVIOUS FORECAST HIGHS DOWN FOR THURSDAY GIVEN
THE TREND FROM THE THE GUIDANCE AND THE CLOUD COVER/GENERAL NW
FLOW IN PLACE. THESE HIGH TEMPS WILL BE NEARING 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH NORMAL THIS TIME OF YEAR 75 AT
JKL AND 77 AT LOZ.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

LONG TERM DISCUSSION WILL BE AVAILIABLE SHORTLY...

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 100 AM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT HAS MOVED SOUTH OF THE REGION
TONIGHT AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTHEAST. THIS HELP FOSTER
GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR TAF SITES WITH AT MOST SOME HIGH
THIN CIRRUS STREAMING ACROSS. OTHERWISE FOG DEVELOPMENT IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS VALLEY LOCATIONS AND ESPECIALLY ALONG RIVER
VALLEYS...BUT THIS IS NOT EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE TAF SITES. HIGH
TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD WITH
APPROACHING DISTURBANCE. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN
LIGHT AND GENERALLY OUT OF THE NORTH.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DJ
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...DJ


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