Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 041257
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
757 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 757 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

JUST SENT OUT A QUICK UPDATE TO THE FORECAST TO REMOVE FOG FROM
THE TODAY PERIOD OF THE ZONES. ALSO FRESHENED UP THE GRIDS WITH
THE LATEST HOURLY OBS DATA. ASIDE FROM THOSE TWO THINGS...THE
FORECAST IS LOOKING PRETTY GOOD SO FAR THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

THE FIRST 36 HOURS OF THE FORECAST CONTINUE TO DEPICT A VERY
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY ON TAP FOR
TODAY...WITH THE FLOODING LIKELY ACROSS THE AREA. ALSO STILL ON
TRACK IS OUR WINTER STORM...WHICH IS STILL ON TRACK TO BEGIN
AFFECTING THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON
WITH A NASTY MIX OF RAIN...FREEZING RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW. ALL OF
EASTERN KENTUCKY BE EXPERIENCING SOME FORM OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION
BY 8Z THURSDAY. BASED ON THE EXPECTED EVOLUTION OF THE AREA OF
WINTRY PRECIP AS IT MOVES EAST TONIGHT AND EARLY TOMORROW...OUR
FAR EASTERN AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES COULD SEE LIGHT ICE
ACCUMULATIONS FROM FREEZING RAIN. THE MODELS WERE STILL IN A BIT
DISAGREEMENT AS TO HOW STRONG THE WARM NOSE WILL BE WITH THIS
EVENT...BUT ENOUGH EVIDENCE EXISTS TO SUPPORT THE SLIGHTLY
INCREASED ICE TOTALS FOR OUR SOUTH AND EAST. ALSO INCREASED SNOW
TOTALS SLIGHTLY TOWARD THE END OF THE EVENT FOR MOST OF OUR
COUNTIES...AS THE LATEST MODEL TIME HEIGHTS AND SOUNDINGS...THIS
INCLUDES THE NAM12...GFS...AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS...ALL STRONGLY
SUGGESTING THAT THE SNOW WILL LAST A FEW HOURS LONGER ON THURSDAY
THAN ORIGINALLY FORECAST. THAT BEING SAID...OUR EASTERN AND
SOUTHERN COUNTIES MAY SEE ABOUT AN INCH MORE OF SNOW THAN
ORIGINALLY THOUGHT. OVERALL THE WINTER STORM WARNING PRODUCT WILL
NOT CHANGE DRAMATICALLY WITH THE 4 PM FORECAST PACKAGE
ISSUANCE...BUT IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT OVERALL STORM TOTAL SNOW
AND ICE AMOUNTS WILL BE SLIGHTLY HIGHER ACROSS THE BOARD. SEE THE
UPDATED WINTER STORM WARNING PRODUCT FOR FORECAST SNOW AND ICE
AMOUNTS.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE QUITE WARM AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH VALUES RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S FROM PIKE COUNTY SOUTHWESTWARD TO WAYNE COUNTY. IN
FACT...AS OF THE WRITING OF THIS AFD...MONTICELLO WAS REPORTING A
TEMPERATURE OF 62...LONDON 62...AND THE WHITESBURG MESONET SITE
REPORTING 62 DEGREES. THESE TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO FALL
STEADILY ONCE THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH LATER THIS MORNING. THE
COLD AIR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE A BIT SLOW TO INVADE THE
AREA...WITH A LARGE PORTION OF EASTERN KENTUCKY SEEING WELL ABOVE
FREEZING TEMPERATURES FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE DAY. IT LOOKS AT
THIS POINT LIKE IT WILL TAKE UNTIL MIDNIGHT OR 1 AM FOR ALL OF
EASTERN KENTUCKY TO BE BELOW FREEZING. OUR NORTHWEST COUNTIES WILL
BE COLDEST LONGEST...AND WILL THEREFORE SEE THE MOST SNOW FROM THE
UPCOMING WINTER STORMS. OUR CENTRAL COUNTIES WILL SEE A GOOD DEAL
OF SNOW AS WELL...BUT NOT QUITE AS MUCH AS OUR FAR
NORTHEAST...WITH THE FAR EAST PICKING LESS SNOW AND A BIT MORE
SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN. THE COLD AIR WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BEGIN
TO BECOME FIRMLY ENTRENCHED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
LOWS ON THURSDAY SHOULD HAVE NO TROUBLE DROPPING INTO THE MID TO
UPPERS FOR THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE AREA. LOCATIONS EAST AND
SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM PAINTSVILLE TO NORTHERN PERRY COUNTY TO
LONDON TO EASTERN WAYNE COUNTY WILL BE SLIGHTLY LESS COLD...WITH
LOWS ON THURSDAY IN THE 20S EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 520 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

THE PERIOD WILL BEGIN WITH AN UPPER RIDGE IN THE WESTERN CONUS AND A
TROUGH EXTENDING FROM EASTERN CANADA SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN CONUS. THE STORM SYSTEM THAT WILL AFFECT THE REGION IN THE
NEAR TERM WILL BE DEPARTING EARLY WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BUILDING IN.

AS THE EXTENDED PERIOD PROGRESSES...THE TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN
CANADA AND THE CONUS WILL BECOME MORE BROAD IN NATURE WITH THE
MAIN BAND OF WESTERLIES RETREATING NORTH CLOSER TO THE US/CANADIAN
BORDER. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY DOMINATE. THIS
PATTERN SHOULD LEAD TO A GRADUAL MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES TO
ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS FROM THE WEEKEND THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
NEXT WEEK.

THE MAIN CONCERN IS EARLY IN THE PERIOD IS THE WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES OF 20 OR MORE DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE. THERE IS A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHEN CLEARING OCCURS ON THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT
GUIDANCE WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NAM POINTS TOWARD THE COMBINATION
OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION AND SEVERAL FRESH
INCHES OF SNOW PACK LEADING TO WIDESPREAD LOW TEMPS FRI MORNING IN
THE 5 BELOW ZERO TO 5 ABOVE ZERO RANGE. CLEARING SHOULD OCCUR
FIRST ACROSS THE NORTH AND THAT AREA SHOULD ALSO HAVE THE MOST
SNOW ON THE GROUND...AND THUS SHOULD BE COLDEST ON FRIDAY MORNING.
HIGHS ON FRIDAY SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.

THE VALLEYS WILL HAVE ANOTHER COLD MORNING ON SAT AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO DEPARTS WITH A RIDGE/VALLEY SPLIT EXPECTED. SOME
SINGLE DIGIT ABOVE ZERO READINGS WOULD AGAIN BE POSSIBLE.
THEN...THE MODERATION BEGINS...WITH UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ON
SATURDAY FOR HIGHS...WHICH ARE STILL ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL. FURTHER MODERATION INTO THE 40S FOR ALL AREAS IS EXPECTED
ON SUNDAY. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES SHOULD FOLLOW FOR MONDAY
HIGHS...WITH ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES BY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 635 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE FORECAST CONCERN THROUGHOUT
MOST OF THE DAY AT THE TAF SITES. THE RAIN WILL CREATE MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS DEPENDING ON THE INTENSITY OF THE RAIN AND HOW MUCH FOG
IS ABLE TO FORM. THE BIGGEST CONCERN FOR AVIATION INTERESTS WILL
COME FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...AS
A MIX OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION AND SNOW MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT SYM AROUND 23Z THIS
EVENING...AND AROUND 2Z AT JKL...LOZ...SME...AND SJS. THE TAF
SITES SHOULD HAVE ALL CHANGED OVER TO SNOW BY 8Z...WITH SYM SEEING
THE SNOW AROUND 5Z. FREEZING RAIN ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
LIGHT...BUT COULD STILL LEAD TO ICING ISSUES. THE SNOW WILL FALL
HEAVY AT TIMES AND WILL REDUCE VSBYS TO IFR OR EVEN LIFR
LEVELS AT THE AIRPORTS...PARTICULARLY BETWEEN 5 AND 12Z.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING FOR KYZ044-050>052-058>060-
068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM EST
THURSDAY FOR KYZ044-050>052.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM EST
THURSDAY FOR KYZ058>060-104-106-108-111.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST THURSDAY
FOR KYZ068-069-079-080-083>086-107-109-110-112>117-119-120.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
THURSDAY FOR KYZ087-088-118.

&&

$$

UPDATE...AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...AR


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