Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 141948
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
348 PM EDT MON APR 14 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 340 PM EDT MON APR 14 2014

AFTER COMPARING ALL THE LATEST MODEL DATA TO THE ACTUAL WEATHER
CONDITIONS OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS...THE NAM12 BY FAR AND AWAY HAS
BEEN HANDLING THINGS THE BEST AND HAD THE BEST INITIALIZATION.
THEREFORE...THE NAM12 SOLUTION WAS USED TO CREATE THIS AFTERNOONS
FORECAST PACKAGE THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. WITH NO PRECIPITATION
ONGOING...AND NOTHING AT ALL APPROACHING FROM UPSTREAM...THE AREA
SHOULD REMAIN FREE OF RAIN FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. ISOLATED RAIN
SHOWERS SHOULD BEGIN POPPING UP AND MOVING INTO THE AREA EARLY THIS
EVENING...AS A STRONG COLD FRONT BEGINS TO PUSH EASTWARD TOWARD THE
AREA. NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT...AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THE PERIOD BETWEEN 4
AND 8Z LOOKS TO BE THE IDEAL TIME FOR ANY THUNDER WE EXPERIENCE AS
THAT WILL BE THE TIME OF BEST LOW LEVEL WARM MOISTURE FEED. ONCE THE
FRONT MOVES BY...MUCH COLDER AIR WILL QUICKLY SPILL INTO THE AREA
BEHIND IT. THIS WILL BE WHEN WE COULD SEE SOME SNOW FLAKES FLYING AND
PERHAPS EVEN A BIT OF SLEET. WITH GROUND TEMPERATURES EXTREMELY WARM
THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...AND WITH THE SOILS ALREADY WET FROM RAIN...IT
WILL VERY HARD FOR ANY SNOW TO ACCUMULATE. THE ONE EXCEPTION WOULD BE
THE HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG THE VIRGINIA AND WEST VIRGINIA
BORDERS...WHERE THE TALLEST PEAKS COULD SEE MAYBE UP TO AN INCH OF
SNOW.

ONCE THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA LATER TONIGHT...TEMPERATURES
WILL BEGIN FALLING STEADILY THROUGH THE PREDAWN HOURS. TEMPERATURES
WILL STILL RISE DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY...BUT WILL NOT RISE VERY
MUCH AS A COLD AIR MASS SETTLES OVER THE AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR
MOST LOCATIONS ON TUESDAY WILL LIKELY STRUGGLE TO REACH 40 DEGREES.
THE MOST PRESSING MATTER FOR THIS PERIOD OF THE FORECAST WILL BE THE
FRIGID TEMPERATURES WE ARE EXPECTING TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING. AN ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL HAVE FULLY SETTLED OVER THE REGION
TOMORROW NIGHT...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO PLUMMET INTO THE LOW TO MID
20S FOR MOST FOLKS. SOME OF OUR COLDER VALLEYS AND TALLEST MOUNTAIN
PEAKS MAY EVEN SEE THE MERCURY DIP INTO THE UPPER TEENS. WITH WINDS
GOING NEAR CALM MOST OF THE NIGHT...AND WITH SKIES BEING MOSTLY
CLEAR...THE STAGE WILL BE SET FOR A WIDESPREAD KILLING FREEZE EVENT.
WIDESPREAD FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR MOST OF THE NIGHT AND INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES THIS COLD WILL EASILY KILL ANY
SENSITIVE OUTDOOR VEGETATION THAT IS LEFT UNPROTECTED. A FREEZE
WATCH IS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT TO ADDRESS THIS ISSUE...BUT THIS PRODUCT
WILL LIKELY BE UPGRADED TO A FREEZE WARNING BY THE UPCOMING NIGHT
SHIFT EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM EDT MON APR 14 2014

THE MODELS START OUT IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AN UPPR TROUGH EXITING
THE EAST COAST FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE REST OF THE CONUS. AN
UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED FRONT SYSTEM IS OVER THE DAKOTAS. THIS
UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS WITH TIME AND SLOWLY PUSHES A COLD FRONT TOWARD
THE AREA. THE FRONT SHOULD BE MOVING ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY ON
FRIDAY NIGHT. LEFT SOME PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST FOR
FRIDAY...HOWEVER WOULD NOT BE TOO SURPRISED TO SEE ANY PRECIPITATION
TO BE DELAYED UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS IS WHERE THE MODES BEGIN TO
DISAGREE WITH THE GFS A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE ECMWF...WHICH IS THE
PREFERRED MODEL. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND WILL
KEEP THINGS DRY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

FOR TEMPERATURES...NUDGED THE MODEL BLENDS TOWARD THE NEW ECMWF
WHICH WAS TYPICALLY COOLER THAN THE BLEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 137 PM EDT MON APR 14 2014

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH AROUND 4Z TONIGHT. THE ISSUE
FOR AVIATORS TODAY WILL BE WINDS. SOUTHWESTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS OF 8 TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. BASED ON THE LATEST TRENDS IN RADAR
BOTH OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY AND POINTS WESTWARD...IT APPEARS THAT THE
REST OF THE DAY COULD BE RAIN FREE. IT LOOKS LIKE THE NEXT CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION MAY NOT ARRIVE UNTIL BETWEEN 4 AND 6Z TONIGHT AT THE
TAF SITES. UNTIL THEN...THE AIRPORTS WILL CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE
OVERCAST CIGS OF 3-6K ACROSS THE BOARD. JKL WILL LIKELY SEE THE
LOWEST CIGS THROUGH THIS EVENING. ONCE THE PRECIPITATION BEGINS...THE
TAF SITES SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE MVFR CIGS...WITH IFR CIGS POSSIBLE WHEN
WIDESPREAD LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER AND RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS BEGIN TO
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 11 AND 14Z ON TUESDAY. TUESDAYS WEATHER
WILL FEATURE A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS...WITH PERHAPS A LITTLE
BIT OF SLEET EARLY IN MORNING.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.

LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR KYZ044-
050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...JJ
AVIATION...AR





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