Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 181716
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
116 PM EDT Thu May 18 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1011 AM EDT THU MAY 18 2017

Radar shows very isolated showers across the central and southern
part of the forecast area. Latest short range guidance indicates
coverage should be isolated at best for the remainder of the day.
This was well handled in the ongoing forecast, so have only
needed to make some minor adjustments, mainly for the areas being
affected and expected to be affected by the isolated showers this
morning. Have also kept out mention of thunder until this
afternoon. NDFD has been updated with latest modifications.

UPDATE Issued at 700 AM EDT THU MAY 18 2017

The forecast is on track so far this morning. A few rain showers
have been showing up on radar in southern Ohio and portions of
central Tennessee this morning. This trend should continue with
eastern Kentucky seeing isolated showers and storms forming across
the area early this morning. This activity should persist through
the day before ending around sunset. With no good trigger in
place, the showers and storms should not be able to become more
than isolated in coverage. A second round of rain is expected to
begin moving into the area from the northwest overnight, as a
weather system approaches from the Plains. Ingested the latest obs
into the forecast grids to establish new trends this morning. No
major changes to the forecast were necessary.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 309 AM EDT THU MAY 18 2017

The latest model data is now suggesting that some isolated showers
and storms may form early across the area early this morning, and
gradually spread northward as the sun rises and instability
increases a bit. The current solutions are showing enough low
level moisture, weak lift, and instability to support the
aforementioned activity, so the new forecast will reflect that.
The new forecast will show isolated showers and storms moving
across the TN border and into our southwest counties between 12
and 15Z this morning, with the convection spreading to the north
and east through out the day. More showers and storms will also
form further to the northwest, as a weather system moves out of
the northern Plains and across the upper Mississippi valley and
across the Ohio Valley region late tonight and during the day on
Friday. Precipitation chances will increase accordingly, as the
weather system gets closer to the area, and we should see 40 to 50
percent coverage of showers and storms across the area by Friday
afternoon.

Temperatures in the short will continue to run well above normal,
with daily highs in the 80s both today and Friday. Overnight lows
will be quite warm as well, with minimum readings in the mid to
upper 60s expected. Winds will gradually strengthen through out
the day today as well, as the pressure gradient across the region
tightens up a bit. We should see winds out of the southwest
increasing from around 5 mph early this morning to 10 to 15 mph by
this afternoon with occasional gusts possible.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 423 AM EDT THU MAY 18 2017

The models are in good agreement with an overall dynamic long
wave pattern to rule across the CONUS through the long term
portion of the forecast. A persistent ridge across the
southeastern CONUS will be in the process of breaking down by the
start of the weekend, as an upper level low/trough axis moves
from the central Plains into the western Great Lakes region. A
short wave trough moving southeast out of south central Canada
will then help reinforce a deeper trough across the eastern half
of the nation, with another potential upper level low emerging
near the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley by the middle of next week.
Surface features and timing are in decent agreement through the
end of the week, but then breakdown into the early and middle of
next week.

Eastern Kentucky will see increasing moisture out ahead of the
trough to our west and associated cold front. POPs Friday night
and Saturday will be more diurnally influenced, but as the
boundary approaches late Saturday night, chances will increase
even during the overnight period. Best overall POPs continue to be
Sunday afternoon/evening as the cold front marches east across
the region, leading to widespread convection.

The front will exit early Monday morning, with a few showers
lingering in the east. A brief reprieve from the wet weather will
set in from Monday afternoon through Tuesday morning, before
additional height falls move in for Tuesday afternoon, and another
cold frontal passage set to move in for Wednesday. Again,
confidence is lower this far out, so have maintained a more
generalized POP regime. Did introduce some slight chances of
thunder for Wednesday, with some steep low level lapse rates in
place.

Above normal temperatures will continue through the end of the
week, before dropping back to slightly below normal readings for
next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 116 PM EDT THU MAY 18 2017

VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period. However,
extremely isolated showers and thunderstorms will occur this
afternoon and into the evening. With the extremely isolated nature
of any thunderstorms we will not carry thunder or VCTS in the
TAFS for this afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms will be possible
again late tonight into Friday. It is possible coverage could be
higher than today, but at this time confidence in thunderstorms
late tonight into Friday is very low so will leave out of TAFS
for now. Winds will gust from the southwest to around 20 knots
over the northern and western parts of the forecast area this
afternoon with the winds decreasing this evening.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SBH
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...SBH



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