Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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544
FXUS63 KJKL 270705
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
305 AM EDT Thu Apr 27 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 303 AM EDT THU APR 27 2017

An area of low pressure is lifting northeast into the great lakes
this morning with a trailing cold front extending southward
across Illinois into western Tennessee. A band of showers with a
few embedded thunderstorms is working into central Kentucky
presently, left over from the convection in the lower Mississippi
river valley yesterday. This band is encountering very little, if
any instability as it continues to press eastward. This activity
will push across eastern Kentucky this morning. The risk for any
severe storms is greatly diminishing as instability remains much
too limited. While the showers should exit by midday, there likely
will not be enough time to destabilize behind the departing
showers, so the front will continue to press on through the area
during the evening hours. As a surface ridge builds in tonight, we
should see slightly cooler temperatures with a slight ridge to
valley split. While ridge will slide eastward on Friday, we will
remain dry as southerly flow begins to pick up. Models are likely
over doing the moisture advection on Friday with a due south flow.
This will likely keep dewpoints a bit lower than models anticipate
and further keep rain chances at bay.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 303 AM EDT THU APR 27 2017

Long term discussion to follow shortly.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
ISSUED AT 154 AM EDT THU APR 27 2017

Low level wind shear will continue just ahead of an approaching
cold front overnight. As the front moves on through, a complex of
showers and a few thunderstorms will push east across the area. In
the wake of this activity and the front, we may see a brief period
of MVFR cigs. These MVFR cigs will return to VFR this afternoon
with VFR conditions remaining for the rest of the TAF forecast
period.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...KAS



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