000
FXUS63 KJKL 191614
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
1214 PM EDT Thu Oct 19 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1214 PM EDT THU OCT 19 2017

Surface analysis shows an area of high pressure centered just to
our south across the greater Tennessee Valley. This is providing
clear and calm conditions across eastern Kentucky this afternoon.
Only minor changes needed to account for latest obs and trends.

UPDATE Issued at 950 AM EDT THU OCT 19 2017

Visible Satellite still showing fog and/or stratus in a few of
the river valleys this morning. This will continue to burn off
through late morning. Otherwise nearby high pressure will continue
to provide clear and calm conditions across eastern Kentucky.
Only minor changes needed to grids for latest obs and trends.

UPDATE Issued at 628 AM EDT THU OCT 19 2017

Valley fog showing up well on the GOES-16 RGB Nighttime
Microphysics channel this morning. This fog, much like the past
several mornings will burn off by 10 am this morning. We`ve had
several valley locations dip into the 30s once again this morning.
All in all, forecast is in good shape with o changes planned to
the forecast early this morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 252 AM EDT THU OCT 19 2017

Strong ridging will continue to hold over the region through
Friday with heights continuing to build. This will allow for a
continued warming trend with highs into the mid 70s today and
upper 70s by Friday. Overnight lows Thursday night will remain
chilly with lows into the upper 30s to around 40 with ridges
staying closer to the upper 40s. Area of dense valley fog will
burn off by 10 am this morning with more dense valley fog expected
tonight.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 420 AM EDT THU OCT 19 2017

An anomalously strong upper ridge will be over the southeast
CONUS as the period starts, providing dry and mild weather for the
local area. An upper trough over the western CONUS will be
heading east and butting up against the ridge, with a low expected
to close off near the lower Mississipi Valley Sunday night. An
associated surface low should also develop, with the system then
tracking northeast toward the Great Lakes. The timing/track of
this system is still in question. Although precip should occur
with the system, exactly when is still a bit unclear, and have
chosen to avoid categorical POPs. The upper low will be absorbed
back into the westerlies as another substantial trough drops
southeast toward the eastern CONUS early in the work week. This
large scale trough will be responsible for a deep chilly air mass
moving into the area. The heart of the cold air is expected to
remain to our north, but it could still result in enough
instability to allow showers to linger through the end of the
period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
ISSUED AT 628 AM EDT THU OCT 19 2017

Mainly VFR conditions will be seen at the TAF sites through
Thursday night. However, some dense valley fog will be seen
early this morning, then again late Thursday night. Light winds
are expected through the period.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DJ
SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...KAS