000
FXUS63 KJKL 090103 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
903 PM EDT TUE JUL 8 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 830 PM EDT TUE JUL 8 2014

THE GRIDS HAVE BEEN UPDATED BASED ON OBSERVATION AND RADAR TRENDS.
EARLIER SHOWERS AND SOME STORMS HAVE STABILIZED THE ATMOSPHERE OVER
THE NORTHEAST TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA AND WARM AIR AND ASSOCIATED
RATHER STABLE LAPSE RATES BETWEEN 400 AND 500 MB CONTINUES TO BE A
LIMITING FACTOR TO CONVECTION DESPITE OTHER FAVORABLE PARAMETERS.
CONVECTION NEAR THE TN BORDER SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE RATHER WIDESPREAD
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. AS THE COLD FRONT WORKS INTO THE
REGION OVERNIGHT AND THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH SOME
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED REDEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR...BUT THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD BE A BENEFICIAL RAIN EVENT WHERE IT OCCURS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 454 PM EDT TUE JUL 8 2014

STORMS CONTINUE TO HAVE A HARD TIME ORGANIZING. UPDRAFTS DO NOT
APPEAR TO BE ABLE TO MUSTER ENOUGH STRENGTH TO OVERCOME SOME WARM AIR
BETWEEN 400 AND 500 MB. MODEL SOUNDINGS DO NOT SHOW THIS WARM LAYER
GOING AWAY. AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WITH GUSTY WINDS CANNOT
BE RULED OUT INTO THE EVENING...BUT SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO BE
DWINDLING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 258 PM EDT TUE JUL 8 2014

STORMS HAVE BEEN A LITTLE SLOW TO DEVELOP OVER EAST KENTUCKY DUE TO
PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER...BUT BREAKS ARE DEVELOPING IN THE CLOUDS AND
STORMS SHOULD RESPOND TO THIS AND THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND
IGNITE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. HRRR HAS BEEN ADAMANT THAT
STORMS WILL BE SCATTERED AT BEST OVER OUR AREA...BUT LATEST RAP
MAKES A LITTLE MORE SENSE CONSIDERING THE ENVIRONMENT. IT DEVELOPS
CONVECTION OVERHEAD AND THEN TO OUR NORTHWEST AND WEST WITH THE
FRONT. THIS CONVECTION THEN MOVES OVER US INTO THE EVENING...WITH
THE UPPER CUMBERLAND REGION LOOKING TO TAKE THE BRUNT OF THE
ACTIVITY. FORECAST WAS TRENDED IN THIS DIRECTION AND DID LOWER POPS
A BIT...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH BASED ON MODEL DATA. WILL CONTINUE
TO ADVERTISE THE SEVERE THREAT THROUGH THE EVENING.

THE FRONT WILL HANG UP OVER SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY ON WEDNESDAY. CLOUD
COVER MAY BE SLOW TO ERODE AGAIN...BUT MODELS INDICATE STEEPENING
LAPSE RATES DEVELOPING DURING THE DAY WITH ADEQUATE CAPE TO POP OFF
AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE AS TEMPS RISE AGAIN
INTO THE 80S. THIS THREAT WILL END QUICKLY EARLY IN THE EVENING WITH
THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND EXPECT DECREASING CLOUDS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT TUE JUL 8 2014

THE MODELS WERE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED THIS TIME
AROUND. THE 12Z RUN OF THE ECMWF WAS COMING MUCH MORE INTO LINE WITH
THE GFS MODEL...WITH A DRY START TO THE PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE
GRADUALLY DRIFTS OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. THE
CONSENSUS VIEW IS NOW FOR A VIGOROUS AREA OF UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
TO MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES SOUTHERN CANADA
AREA...PARTICULARLY OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. THE TROUGH LOOKS TO BE
AT ITS MOST POTENT FROM SUNDAY ONWARD...AS IT DIPS SOUTH OUT OF
CANADA AND INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL CONUS TO BEGIN THE WORK WEEK NEXT
WEEK. THE BULK OF THE EXTENDED LOOKS TO BE DRY AT THIS POINT...WITH
THE ANTICIPATED PATTERN LENDING ITSELF TO MORE MOIST AND ACTIVE
PERIOD AND RAIN CHANCES FROM SUNDAY ONWARD. TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD SHOULD BE AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...WITH THE COOLER
DAY TIME HIGHS OCCURRING SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS CLOUD COVER AND
PRECIPITATION BEGIN OVERSPREADING THE AREA. THE START OF THE PERIOD
LOOKS TO BE MORE WARM AND HUMID.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 840 PM EDT TUE JUL 8 2014

SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION MAY AFFECT THE TAF SITES
THROUGH ABOUT 9Z OR SO...THOUGH CONVECTION THROUGH AT LEAST 3Z SHOULD
COME CLOSEST TO SME AND LOZ. AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED. ALONG
AND BEHIND THE FRONT...GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A PERIOD OF MVFR
CEILINGS BETWEEN 7Z AND 15Z. VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THEREAFTER.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...ABE
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...JP