571
FXUS63 KJKL 291110
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
710 AM EDT Thu Sep 29 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 710 AM EDT THU SEP 29 2016

We should see a lull in precipitation this morning as the
lingering overnight showers exit the area. So have trended back
pops mainly in the western half of the forecast area throughout
the morning hours. Also refreshed the hourly temps to reflect
most recent obs. Sent updates to NDFD and web servers.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 355 AM EDT THU SEP 29 2016

Scattered showers continue to progress eastward through far East
Kentucky this morning, well behind the cold frontal boundary that
has already exited to the southeast. The deep upper level low that
provided us with this showers is currently over southern Indiana
and is expected to push into central Kentucky today. With the low
centered over our forecast area, skies will remain mostly overcast
throughout the day with high temperatures only reaching the lower
60s. With upper level dynamics in place, showers and a slight
chance of thunder will once again be possible today, peaking in
the afternoon hours. Though, most high-res models keep the best
chance for rain/storms in the far east and over West Virginia.
Depending on how the upper low pivots across the area, along with
the position the upper level jet, this certainly seems possible.
Instability wanes tonight, and models agree on a dry slot wrapping
around the upper low, with the result being most precip drying up
by dawn on Friday. The upper low is then progged to wobble a bit
northwest throughout the day on Friday as the dry slot works
further into our area. High temperatures should rebound slightly
into the upper 60s and low 70s Friday afternoon as long as the dry
slot comes to fruition and skies clear up a bit.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 355 AM EDT THU SEP 29 2016

The models remain in general agreement with an amplified long
wave pattern to continue through the period. The Ohio Valley
upper level low will gradually wobble its way back towards the
Great Lakes, and eventually get absorbed into the Westerlies by
early next week. Meanwhile, a deeper trough will be swinging
through the western CONUS, sharpening up a ridge across the middle
of the CONUS. This trough will move east into the Plains by the
middle of next week, slowly shoving the ridge east of the
Mississippi River. Model differences in timing and amplitude
remain; however, there is general agreement on a slower trend to
the pattern evolution by the middle of next week.

A few more showers will continue to be in the vicinity of eastern
Kentucky through Saturday night, as the upper low slowly pulls
away to the north. Generally dry weather can then be expected
through the rest of the period, as we come under the influence of
the ridge axis moving in from the west. Temperatures will be
modifying through the period. Highs to start the weekend will be
in the low to mid 70s, before reaching the upper 70s and lower 80s
by the middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
ISSUED AT 610 AM EDT THU SEP 29 2016

Visibilities/CIGS have started to improve as winds began to mix
out the column. This has led to variable conditions across the
area this morning. CIGS should continue to improve throughout the
morning as the upper level low moves over Kentucky. Showers and
thunderstorms will once again be possible this afternoon and any
heavier shower or storm could reduce conditions briefly. Later
tonight, dependent on how much low level moisture sticks around
and how many locations see rain today, fog will be possible. For
now, have decided to include IFR fog across all TAF sites but this
will need to be updated in future forecasts as confidence
increases. Winds will remain around 5 knots or less throughout the
period.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JVM
SHORT TERM...JVM
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...JVM