Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 241902
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
302 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 302 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES DURING THE PERIOD ENSURING A DRY FORECAST AFTER THE INITIAL
SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON EXIT INTO VIRGINIA IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.

THE MAIN QUANDARY IN THE SHORT TERM IS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG TONIGHT. THIS POTENTIAL HAS BEEN ADDRESSED IN THE
AVIATION SECTION BELOW AND THE PUBLIC FORECAST WILL FEATURE A
MENTION OF AREAS OF FOG AND A PARTLY CLOUDY FORECAST FOR MOST AREAS.
CLOUDS MAY END UP BEING MORE PREVALENT...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE
DANIEL BOONE NATIONAL FOREST...AND THIS WOULD LIMIT FOG DEVELOPMENT
IN THE VALLEYS. WHATEVER HAPPENS...SKIES WILL CLEAR BY MIDDAY ON
FRIDAY WITH GENERALLY FAIR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT.

TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL HINGE ON THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER THAT
HANGS AROUND AND ANTICIPATE IT BEING PREVALENT ENOUGH TO KEEP MOST
LOCATIONS AROUND 60...EXCEPT OVER THE NORTHEAST BLUEGRASS AND
GATEWAY REGION WHERE SOME MID 50S ARE POSSIBLE. A PLEASANT FRIDAY IS
THEN EXPECTED WITH COMFORTABLE DEWPOINTS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 AM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

THE EXTENDED PORTION WILL FEATURE A STRONG SHORT WAVE MOVING
SOUTHEAST FROM MN AND INTO THE OH VALLEY BY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
AS THIS WAVE SWINGS THROUGH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH...A 90 KNOT JET
MAX WILL PUSH THROUGH DEEPENING THE LONG WAVE TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN CONUS AND KEEPING THE QUITE AMPLIFIED TROUGH IN PLACE
THROUGH THE REST OF THE EXTENDED. IN RESPONSE...THE WESTERN RIDGE
INCREASES IN STRENGTH KEEPING A RARE MERIDIONAL PATTERN IN PLACE FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. WITH THE MODELS SHOWING SOME AGREEMENT IN THIS
TREND IT CAN BE SAFE TO SHOW A HIGH LEVEL OF CONFIDENCE WITH THE ALL
MODEL BLEND SOLUTION.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL COME ON
SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH. WENT
WITH THE LIKELY POPS INHERITED FROM THE ALL MODEL BLEND. AT AN EARLY
LOOK TO THIS SCENARIO...QUITE A BIT OF DYNAMICS ARE WITH THIS
FEATURE WITH THE STRONG JET STREAK MOVING THROUGH THE OH VALLEY AND
AFTERNOON CAPE VALUES REACHING 2500 J/KG...A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
IS CERTAINLY NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION IF THE STRENGTH OF THE WAVE
HOLDS TRUE THROUGH THE DAYS LEADING UP TO THE EVENT. THIS WILL BE
THE REAL FORECAST CHALLENGE AS THE POTENTIAL IS THERE...BUT WILL
HAVE TO SEE HOW THE MODELS TREND UP TO THE EVENT. A COUPLE WEAK
DISTURBANCES WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THIS WAVE AND WILL PROVIDE A LOW
CHANCE FOR PRECIP INTO TUESDAY BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN FOR
THE REST OF THE EXTENDED. THE AIR MASS MOVING IN BEHIND THIS FRONT
IS QUITE COOL WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY IN
THE MID 70S...AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
MODEL TRENDS WOULD SUGGEST THAT AN OVERALL COOLER PATTERN FOR THE
LAST WEEK OF JULY WILL BE THE CASE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 143 PM EDT THU JUL 24 2014

DIFFICULT AVIATION FORECAST WITH LOW CONFIDENCE IN DETAILS AT THIS
TIME. LOW CLOUDS CURRENTLY IN PLACE WILL SLOWLY LIFT AND ERODE
AROUND THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN EDGES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS LOW
PRESSURE TRACKS OUT OF FAR EAST KENTUCKY INTO THE VIRGINIAS. DRIER
AIR WILL WORK INTO THE REGION ON NORTHERLY WINDS AND RESIDUAL SHOWER
ACTIVITY OVER FAR SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY WILL END BY EVENING. LOW LEVEL
FLOW WILL VEER AROUND TO A NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION WITH TIME
OVERNIGHT. THIS TYPICALLY RESULTS IN A TENDENCY FOR LOW CLOUDS TO
HANG IN TOUGH OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY...OR REDEVELOP IF THEY BREAK UP
FOR A TIME DURING THE EVENING. SO...WHILE FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL
GRADUALLY IMPROVE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...IT IS LIKELY THEY
WILL DETERIORATE AGAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
LIFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS LIKELY AROUND DAWN ON FRIDAY.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ABE
LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...ABE




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