Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000
FXUS63 KJKL 300800 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
400 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

CLEAR SKIES...COMBINED WITH MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE...AND LIGHT
WINDS...HAS LED TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF DENSE FOG ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY THIS MORNING. THIS FOG WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
DAYBREAK...BEFORE BURNING OFF BY 9 OR 10 AM. A FAIRLY PLEASANT DAY IS
ON TAP. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL WORK SOUTH ACROSS OHIO AND INTO WEST
VIRGINIA TODAY...PUSHING A WEAK COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN
KENTUCKY. THE BEST FORCING IS EXPECTED TO STAY TO OUR NORTH AND EAST
AS THE FRONT JUST GRAZES OUR NORTHERN AREAS. WHILE A FEW SPRINKLES
MAY BE POSSIBLE...MODELS GENERALLY KEEP THE AREA DRY. THUS...PLAN TO
STICK WITH A DRY FORECAST...ALTHOUGH A STRAY SHOWER COULD GET FAIRLY
CLOSE TO OUR NORTHERN AREAS BY LATE IN THE DAY. TONIGHT...THE
SHORTWAVE WILL DEPART AS THE BOUNDARY STALLS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY.
NO FORCING OR INSTABILITY TO SPEAK OF...SO WILL STICK WITH THE DRY
FORECAST THROUGH TONIGHT. MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THE BOUNDARY COULD
YIELD ANOTHER NIGHT OF DENSE FOG...ESPECIALLY IN THE RIVER VALLEYS
YET AGAIN. PLAN TO INCLUDE THIS IN THE HWO THIS MORNING. ANOTHER
PLEASANT DAY IS ANTICIPATED ON WEDNESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE AREA. TEMPERATURES TODAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE FAIRLY SIMILAR
WITH READINGS GENERALLY AROUND 80 AND LOWS TONIGHT WILL FALL BACK
INTO THE 50S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT AT LEAST THROUGH THE FIRST
PART OF THE EXTENDED. THEY ALL PUMP A RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF
THE NATION IN RESPONSE TO A DIGGING FULL LATITUDE THROUGH MOVING INTO
THE PLAINS ON THURSDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL APPROACH EASTERN KENTUCKY
LATER THAT NIGHT WITH DECENT HEIGHT FALLS AND A HEALTHY CHUNK OF
ENERGY. THE INITIAL PORTION OF THIS ENERGY ROLLS THROUGH BY MIDDAY
FRIDAY WITH A SIGNIFICANT PORTION HELD BECK OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST.
IT IS THIS TIME FRAME AND THE CORE OF THIS ENERGY THAT STARTS TO
SEPARATE THE MODEL SOLUTIONS. THE GFS REMAINS THE FASTEST OF THE
MODELS SWINGING THE TROUGH AXIS AND THE BULK OF THE ENERGY THROUGH
THE OHIO VALLEY LATER FRIDAY WHILE THE ECMWF HOLDS ITS CORE BACK A
BIT. THE MODELS OF LATE HAVE BEEN TRENDING TOWARD A SLOWER SOLUTION...
BUT NOT AS EXTREME AS THE 12Z ECMWF AND THE LATEST VERSION OF THE
OVER SEAS MODEL SEEMS TO HAVE BACKED OFF ON ITS MORE SOUTHERN UPPER
LOW FOR THE WEEKEND. IT DOES STILL KEEP THE LOWEST HEIGHTS OVER
KENTUCKY WHEN COMPARED TO THE OTHERS...BUT THE ECMWF IS NOT AS MUCH
OF AN OUTLIER AS IT SEEMED EARLIER IN THE SHIFT. NEVERTHELESS...THE
TROUGH LOOKS LIKE IT WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN TWO
THIRDS OF THE NATION THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY. THROUGH IT
ALL THE ECMWF HOLDS TO ITS DEEPER SOLUTION FOR THE OHIO VALLEY.
FAVORED THE ECMWF SOLUTION THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE EXTENDED
FOLLOWED BY A GENERAL MODEL BLEND THEREAFTER.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A COUPLE OF WARM AND PLEASANT EARLY
FALL DAYS BEFORE A STRONG COLD FRONT BRINGS A REMINDER OF WHAT SEASON
WE ARE IN LATER THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WITH THIS BOUNDARY/S
ARRIVAL SHOWERS CAN BE EXPECTED INVADING FROM WEST TO EAST LATE
THURSDAY INTO THE DAY FRIDAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT...
ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY. COLDER AIR
THEN RUSHES INTO THE STATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS
AND A SMALL CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS LINGERING INTO THE DAY
SATURDAY...MAINLY IN THE NORTH. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH A RENEWED SHOT OF CHILLY AIR
AND A POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS.

THE CR GRID LOAD AGAIN PROVED TO BE A GOOD START TO THE EXTENDED
GRIDS...THOUGH DID ADJUST THE POPS A TAD TOWARD THE ECMWF SOLUTION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DID ALSO TWEAK THE LOW TEMPERATURE GRIDS A BIT
EACH NIGHT TO REFLECT AT LEAST SOME MINOR RIDGE AND VALLEY
DIFFERENCES THAT WILL PROBABLY BE LARGEST LATER IN THE FORECAST FOR
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHTS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 123 AM EDT TUE SEP 30 2014

CLEARING SKIES AND NEARLY CALM WINDS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN AREAS OF
DENSE FOG ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. HAVE ALLOWED FOR LIFR OR WORSE
CONDITIONS BUILDING IN AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH 12Z. ONCE THE
FOG BURNS OFF BETWEEN 13 AND 14Z...VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN. WINDS
WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WELL.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR KYZ058>060-
068-069-079-080-083>088-106>120.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...GREIF
AVIATION...KAS




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