000
FXUS63 KJKL 250533
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
133 AM EDT SAT MAY 25 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 133 AM EDT SAT MAY 25 2013

A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING FROM ONTARIO TO THE
CAROLINAS WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY DURING THE PERIOD...BRINGING
US A DRY SURFACE AIR MASS. WE WILL HAVE NEARLY NEUTRAL OR SLIGHT
COLD AIR ADVECTION. WITH AN UNUSUALLY COLD AIR MASS INITIALLY IN
PLACE...THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL ALLOW STRONG
LATE SPRING SUN TO BEGIN TO WARM AND MODIFY THE AIR MASS.

FLOW BETWEEN THE EASTERN CONUS RIDGE AND LOW PRESSURE OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS WILL RESULT IN WARM AIR ADVECTION OVER THE PLAINS AND MIDWEST.
THIS WAS ALREADY CAUSING THUNDERSTORMS OVER IA ON FRIDAY NIGHT.
ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF CONVECTION ARE EXPECTED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST
THROUGH SUNDAY. MOISTURE/DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM THAT AREA WILL BE CARRIED
SOUTHEAST BY THE FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS
LOCALLY. CAN NOT RULE OUT PRECIP LATE TONIGHT OR SUNDAY...BUT VIRGA
IS THE MORE LIKELY SCENARIO WITH OUR DRY SURFACE AIR MASS IN PLACE.
WILL CARRY JUST A CHANCE OF SPRINKLES TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 133 AM EDT SAT MAY 25 2013

AN UPDATED LONG TERM DISCUSSION WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 133 AM EDT SAT MAY 25 2013

VFR AND LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...HAL