Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 071945

National Weather Service Jackson KY
245 PM EST Wed Dec 7 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 245 PM EST WED DEC 7 2016

Upper low north of Lake Superior will continue to move east
across Ontario, with trailing upper trough axis over the plains
shifting east. At the surface, cold high pressure will continue
to nose east into the Ohio Valley. The upper troughing and surface
ridging results in colder air working its way into KY, with lows
tonight mostly in the upper 20s and highs on Thursday from the mid
30s to around 40, about 10 degrees cooler than today. Even with
the trough shifting east, and the surge of colder air, there will
be very little moisture available. The outside chance for a few
flurries remains in the forecast for late tonight and early

Thursday night will be even colder than tonight, with lows in the
upper teens to lower 20s. Some clouds will affect the northeastern
part of the forecast area as a short wave trough swings by to our
northeast. The clouds are not expected until late in the night, so
temperatures should still fall off quickly in the northeast
Thursday evening. If the clouds move in earlier than expected
overnight lows would be warmer than current forecast in the
northeast. There is still an outside chance for a few flurries in
the northeastern part of the forecast area late Thursday night.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 307 AM EST WED DEC 7 2016

A very cold airmass will be settling in over the area Thursday
night. The H5 trough axis passes by during the night and models
continue to indicate an increase in low level clouds overnight
with a marginal upslope component to the low level flow. Soundings
show cloud temps in the -8C to -12C range and this should be good
for flurries to develop late Thursday night and continue into the
day on Friday. Temperatures on Friday will likely remain below
freezing for most locations giving us our coldest day since last
February. High pressure then settles in over the region Friday
night. Mid and high clouds streaming overhead may disrupt
radiational cooling some, but temperatures will still likely fall
deep into the teens.

The weekend starts dry and chilly on Saturday, and then turns
unsettled as a shortwave moves across the Upper Midwest and into
the Ohio Valley. This forces a cold front across the state Sunday
into Sunday night. Models are still having difficulty with this
system and forecaster confidence on the details is lacking. Models
are trending colder with the temperature profile and this draws
into question precip type. Models do show a 50kt H85 jet which
should draw enough warm air northward to cause the bulk of any
precip to fall as rain. However, we will continue with the idea of
a chance of rain/snow Sunday morning, then rain likely Sunday
afternoon and evening before precip transitions back to a
rain/snow mix late Sunday night into Monday morning. This system
exits leaving what should be dry and seasonably cool day behind on

Looking further out...while it appears we get a brief taste of
Arctic air late this week, longer range models bring in a true
Arctic blast later next week preceded by some accumulating snow.
Certainly something to keep an eye on with future model runs...


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)

An 30-50 mile wide band of broken to overcast cloud with MVFR
ceilings continues to hold fast across southeast Kentucky from
Lake Cumberland to Pike County. This should begin to lift and mix
out by late afternoon, but MVFR ceilings should persist at LOZ
and SJS through mid afternoon. SME should even see some MVFR
ceilings for a short time. VFR conditions will prevail from
tonight through Thursday. Winds will generally be light and
variable through tonight, but become westerly Thursday morning at
5 to 10 knots.




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