Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 261810
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
110 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1155 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

THE BAND OF STEADIER SNOW CONTINUES TO WORK ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
COUNTIES WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES ON UPSLOPE FLOW/INSTABILITY
LINGERING BEHIND THIS. SOME OF THIS LIGHTER SNOW AND FLURRIES ARE
BELOW THE RADAR BEAM...SO THE AREAL EXTENT AT THIS TIME MAY BE A BIT
GREATER THAN INDICATED BY RADAR. THE TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY
RUNNING BELOW GUIDANCE ONCE THE COLDER AIR MOVES IN AND WE CURRENTLY
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO RECOVER ONLY A DEGREE OR TWO THE REMAINDER OF
THE DAY...SO NEARLY STEADY TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED IN MOST
PLACES...WITH A BUMP DOWN IN THE DEEPEST VALLEYS IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST
AND THEN NEARLY STEADY FOR THE REST OF THE DAY.

NORTHWEST FLOW AN ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES PASSING BY WILL LEAD TO
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES THROUGH AT LEAST
TONIGHT. ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT GENERALLY LESS
THAN A HALF OF AN INCH. HOWEVER...THE NEARLY STEADY TEMPERATURES
BELOW FREEZING AND SOME LIGHT FALLING PRECIP SHOULD ACT TO COOL
ROADWAYS AND SURFACES AND SLICK OR REFREEZE SPOTS ARE ANTICIPATED AT
TIMES ESPECIALLY ON ANY UNTREATED LOCATIONS. THESE COULD BECOME MORE
PREVALENT BY DARK...DEPENDING ON WHERE SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES
OCCUR. AN SPS HAS BEEN REISSUED TO HANDLE THIS AND GRAPHICAL NOWCASTS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE ISSUED THIS AFTERNOON TO ADDRESS THIS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 647 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

WSR-88D RADAR SHOWS A FEW SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION THE MORNING AS CLIPPER LOW CONTINUES TO PROGRESS ACROSS
EASTERN KY. THE TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN TRICKY OVERNIGHT INTO THIS
MORNING AS COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO SLOWLY ADVECT FROM NW TO SE THIS
MORNING. FRESHENED UP GRIDS WITH LATEST OBS AND TRENDS THIS MORNING
INCLUDING A QUICK UPDATE OF WX GRIDS TO BETTER SHOW TRANSITION THIS
MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 342 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

WSR-88D THIS MORNING HAS CONTINUED TO SHOW AREAS OF RAIN SHOWERS
MOVING ACROSS EASTERN KY THIS MORNING. BEST COVERAGE HAS GENERALLY
BEEN ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER THIS MORNING WE HAVE SEEN GENERALLY LOWER AMTS OF PRECIP AND
TEMPS ARE STILL ABOVE FREEZING AT MOST LOCATIONS BESIDE BLACK MTN AT
8Z. GIVEN THIS HAVE LESSEN POPS AND ALSO LESSENED QPF AMTS ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS MAY STILL BE TOO OPTIMISTIC AS RETURNS FROM RADAR HAVE
BEEN QUITE LOW ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN KY THIS MORNING. THIS TREND
OF LOWERING REFLECTIVITIES IS ALSO BACK UP BY THE HRRR WHICH ALSO
INITIALIZED FAIRLY WELL AT 7Z. OTHERWISE LEFT OVER SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY
TRANSITION TO SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY WITH BEST COVERAGE ACROSS
THE FAR EAST THIS AFTERNOON.

THIS SURFACE LOW AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE EXIT EAST WHERE
IT DEVELOPS INTO A STRONG NOREASTER ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD LATER
TODAY. ACROSS EASTERN KY WE WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSITION TO GENERALLY
WEST TO NW FLOW. MODELS DO SHOW A FETCH OF MOISTURE DROPPING SOUTH
FROM THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. RIGHT NOW HAVE MOVED
TOWARD SLIGHT CHANCES OF SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS SW PORTION OF THE
CWA WHERE BETTER PLACEMENT OF MOISTURE AXIS EXISTS. EVEN SO GENERALLY
MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD AREA
WIDE COUPLED WITH GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 445 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE
EXTENDED AND ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE LATTER PART. THE RUB HERE
IS THAT THE CONSISTENCY HAS BEEN TAKING HITS LATELY WITH THE FORECAST
FOR NEXT WEEKEND. A ONCE DISCARDED SOLUTION...MAINLY SEEN EARLIER IN
THE GFS...HAS RETURNED WITH SOME LIMITED SUPPORT FROM THE ECMWF.
EARLY ON...THE FOCUS WILL BE ON A DEEP CYCLONE OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD WHILE A FAST FLOW OF ENERGY ROILS ABOVE EAST KENTUCKY ON A
GENERALLY NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST PATH INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS
VORT STREAM IS SHUNTED EAST BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY AS HIGHER HEIGHTS
FROM A WEAKENING SOUTHERN RIDGE MOVES INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND THEN OVER THE LOWER OHIO BASIN. AT THE SAME TIME...A
DEVELOPING TROUGH WILL DIP INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND SLIDE EAST.
THIS FEATURE RAMPS UP INTO THE DAY THURSDAY WITH THE GFS PROVIDING
BETTER SUPPORT FOR THE MORE ROBUST SOLUTION OF THE ECMWF. THIS
TROUGH CROSSES EAST KENTUCKY LATER THURSDAY NIGHT WITH FLAT FLOW TO
FOLLOW. HOWEVER...OVER THE SOUTHWEST PARTS OF THE NATION A LARGE
CLOSED LOW IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM IS NOW DEPICTED...PARTICULARLY BY
THE LATEST ECMWF...OPENING UP AND SPILLING ITS ENERGY EAST INTO THE
FLOW RIDING OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THE MODELS NOW SHOW SOME
CONNECTION TO THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS WHICH WOULD CERTAINLY
MAKE THINGS MORE INTERESTING FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND IF THAT PANS
OUT. FOR NOW...WILL SHOW ONLY LIMITED INTERACTION AND EASE INTO A
MORE DYNAMIC SCENARIO GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY AND LACK OF MODEL RUN TO
RUN CONSISTENCY WITH THIS PART OF THE FORECAST. IN GENERAL...A BLEND
OF THE MODELS WAS PREFERRED THROUGH THE BULK OF THE FORECAST WITH
SOME ADJUSTMENT TOWARD THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEKEND GIVEN
THE CONSISTENCY CONCERNS.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE THE ENDING OF THE UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES IN THE FAR EAST EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH SOME
SUNSHINE RETURNING. THE NEXT CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS THE
AREA INTO FRIDAY MORNING. ONLY A BRIEF WINDOW FOR DRYING CAN BE
EXPECTED FROM FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE THE POTENTIAL
FOR MAINLY SNOW ARRIVES FROM THE SOUTHWEST IN FAST LOW AND MID LEVEL
FLOW RIDING ALONG A WEST TO EAST ARCTIC BOUNDARY LYING OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY. THIS BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ON THROUGH KENTUCKY BY
SUNDAY MORNING WITH SNOW CHANCES CONTINUING...MAINLY IN THE SOUTHERN
PARTS OF THE CWA. THIS SETUP WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY...
THOUGH...AS THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR THE COLD AIR TO SETTLE INTO THE
STATE BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND A LOW TO FORM IN THE NORTHERN GULF
SLIDING NORTHEAST WHILE SENDING AMPLE MOISTURE NORTH INTO OUR AREA
ON THE COLD SIDE OF THIS ARCTIC BOUNDARY. FOR NOW...HAVE GONE WITH
JUST SMALL CHANCES FOR SNOW FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY...
BUT THAT WILL SURELY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED ONE WAY OR ANOTHER AS THE
MODELS GET A BETTER HANDLE ON THIS SITUATION IN FUTURE RUNS.

THE CR GRID LOAD MADE FOR AN OKAY START TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST
GRIDS WITH CHANGES MADE PRIMARILY TO BETTER REFLECT THE LATEST ECMWF
SOLUTION FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. ALSO...MADE SOME TYPICAL RIDGE
AND VALLEY TEMPERATURE ADJUSTMENTS FOR LOWS EACH NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 109 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

EXPECT VARYING CIGS THROUGH THE EVENING AND INTO TONIGHT AS SOME
UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. WITH
THIS...ACTIVITY...CIGS WILL GENERALLY BE AT AIRFIELD MINS OR JUST
ABOVE FOR THE TAF SITES. VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS WILL BE SHORT IN
DURATION DUE TO THE SHOWERY NATURE OF THE SNOW SHOWERS THIS EVENING.
A BRIEF BREAK IN THE ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR AROUND 00Z THROUGH 06Z
TONIGHT BEFORE THE NEXT SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH AND BRINGS ANOTHER
ROUND OF SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE WEST AND NORTHWEST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
SOME GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS AT TIMES THROUGH THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...DJ
LONG TERM...GREIF
AVIATION...JVM/SHALLENBERGER






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