Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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891
FXUS63 KJKL 301911
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
311 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 210 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

CONTINUED CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA WITH PRECIP WILL KEEP TEMPS
COOLER THAN ANTICIPATED. HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPS A BIT LOWER WITH THIS
UPDATE. THE REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS TO BE ON TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1115 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

ISSUED AN UPDATE TO THE FORECAST FOR THE CURRENT CONDITIONS.
UPSTREAM IN CENTRAL KY...SOME MORE HEAVIER RAIN WILL BEGIN TO
ENTER THE AREA INTO THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE UPPED THE POPS HEADING
INTO THIS AFTERNOON IN THE NORTH. THIS AREA PROVES TO BE THE BEST
CHANCE FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. ALSO LOWERED MAX TEMPS A BIT IN
ANTICIPATION OF SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS DUE TO THE EXTENSIVE
RAINFALL AND CLOUD COVER. THE QUESTION STILL REMAINS HEADING INTO
THE LATER AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS TO IF THIS RAINFALL HINDERS ANY
DEVELOPMENT ON INSTABILITY LATER FOR SOME STRONG STORMS. HAVE
ISSUED A NEW ZFP HAS BEEN ISSUED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 756 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK. HAVE UPDATED TO BLEND EARLY MORNING OBS
INTO THE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 441 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

AN ACTIVE PERIOD IS IN STORE AS LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY TRAVELS FROM
MISSOURI TO OHIO. IT WILL BRING WARM AIR ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC
LIFT FOR THE JKL FORECAST AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT ALONG AND AHEAD
OF A WARM FRONT. THIS WILL PROVIDE GOOD SUPPORT FOR PRECIP. THE
FRONT SHOULD MOVE TO OUR NORTH SUNDAY MORNING...TAKING THE BEST
SUPPORT FOR PRECIP WITH IT.

AS THE FRONT APPROACHES...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO
SUPPORT THUNDER BEGINNING THIS AFTERNOON. A DECENT AMOUNT OF SHEAR
IS EXPECTED...BUT THE INSTABILITY SHOULD BE FAIRLY WEAK. THE
GREATEST INSTABILITY IS FORECAST FOR OUR SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES...
POSING THE BEST SHOT AT SEVERE WX THERE. EVEN SO...SPC HAS THEIR
SLIGHT RISK AREA JUST TOUCHING OUR FORECAST AREA.

AS WE EMERGE INTO THE WARM SECTOR OF THE STORM SYSTEM ON
SUNDAY...MUCH DRIER AIR ALOFT IS ANTICIPATED...ALONG WITH WEAKER
VERTICAL FORCING. WHILE ADDITIONAL HEATING WILL LEAD TO GREATER
INSTABILITY...SHEAR WILL ALSO BE LESSENED. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY
CONCERNING COVERAGE/PROBABILITY WITH THE WEAKER FORCING. IF
CONVECTION CAN FIRE...THE DEGREE OF EXPECTED INSTABILITY STILL
SUPPORTS A SEVERE THREAT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL FEATURE PERIODS OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS AND COOLER WEATHER THAT WHAT WE HAVE BEEN
EXPERIENCING THE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS. THE MODELS ALL HAVE A LARGE
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT DIVING OUT OF CANADA AND BASICALLY
SPINNING IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION AND
SOUTHWESTERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH OUT THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. THE
WEATHER SYSTEM THAT WILL BRING SHOWERS AND STORMS TO EASTERN
KENTUCKY TODAY AND TOMORROW...WILL BE DEPARTING THE AREA MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT. ONCE THAT SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO OUR EAST...A MUCH
LARGER AND MORE WELL DEVELOPED TROUGH IS FORECAST TO INFLUENCE THE
WEATHER OF EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. MULTIPLE
SHORT WAVES WILL MIGRATE AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER
TROUGH...WHICH WILL BRING US PERIODS OF RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE
WEEK. THE RAIN WILL BE LIGHT AND SHOULD NOT PRESENT ANY MAJOR
ISSUES. WE WILL JUST BE IN STORE FOR A DAMP AND CLOUDY WEEK WITH
PERIODS OF SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS.

TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD WILL GENERALLY RUN AT OR BELOW
NORMAL AS THE TROUGH PULLS COOL MOIST AIR INTO THE REGION. DAY
TIME HIGHS WILL VARY FROM THE LOW TO MID 60S DURING THE RAINIEST
PERIODS...TO AROUND 70 ON THE LESS RAINY LESS CLOUDY DAYS.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE 40S ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 210 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT. SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP INTO THE EVENING
HOURS AS THE WARM FRONT BEGINS TO LIFT NORTHWARD. THUS...WILL HAVE
CIGS AND VIS LOWERING THROUGH THIS EVENING AND THROUGH MIDNIGHT
BEFORE THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA. AFTER THIS...IFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE INTO THE DAY ON SUNDAY. WILL KEEP
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE TAFS THROUGH 06Z BEFORE A BREAK IN THE ACTION
TAKES PLACE AS THE FRONT SHIFTS NORTH. CONDITIONS WILL DEGRADE
AGAINBY 18Z TOMORROW AS THE NEXT DISTURBANCE PRODUCES MORE
CONVECTION TOMORROW AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF THE EAST
BEFORE SHIFTING AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST TOMORROW MORNING AND
INCREASING UP TO 10 KNOTS.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SHALLENBERGER
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER



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