Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 271949

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson KY
349 PM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 349 PM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016

Afternoon showers and storms have developed as expected mainly
near the VA/TN border this afternoon. So far these showers have
struggled to become thunderstorms, and thus far little to no
lightning has been detected on the NLDN/ENTLN networks. That said
the MRMS VII product suggest only hints of ice in the far east
showers and that has been the area with the only cloud to cloud
strike so far. Either way will keep wx grids going with isolated
to scattered thunderstorms given the decent CAPE and steep lapse
rates. However given the fact that there is such weak steering
flow and no shear these storms will have a up hill battle becoming
organized. These showers and storms will be mostly diurnally
driven and are expected to subside through the evening hours.
After this did keep some valley fog in the forecast and this would
be enhanced in areas that do manage to see a storm

For Saturday the focus shifts to the west where a 500mb wave
across the lower Mississippi River Valley that will eject NE into
western KY. This will bring PVA across western and central KY by
Saturday afternoon. This wave is also translating to the 700mb
level as well and will advect reasonable vertical velocities
across central KY. Right now will keep shower and storm chances
isolated to scattered through the day on Saturday with better
chances overall residing in the NW portions of the CWA. While the
weakly sheared environment and 700mb cap will be the caveat; steep
low level lapse rates, decent mid level dry layer, and MUCAPE
around 2000 to 2500 J/kg could be enough to get a isolated
marginally severe storm. The main risk would be gusty winds and
small hail

Saturday night we should see most of the storms subside as we
loose the heating. That said areas that see storms and deeper
valleys will have another opportunity to see patchy fog. After
this the GFS remains more robust with bringing weak PVA/western
wave influence and moisture from the potential tropical
disturbance. Meanwhile the NAM/ECMWF seem a bit more reserved with
this thought. Therefore toward dawn kept pops isolated coverage
and mainly in the far east

Temperatures in the short term remain above normal with highest
temps forecast in the far east.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 349 PM EDT FRI MAY 27 2016

Available shortly...


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)

All sites this early afternoon hour are remaining VFR with some
scattered CU across the eastern KY. We are seeing some isolated
showers developing along and near the VA border this afternoon and
this will become the aviation concern this afternoon. Right now
the issue is the isolated to scattered nature leads to VCTS
confidence at best. Most sites are not expected to get nearby
storms till generally after 20Z to 21Z. This could lead to brief
lowering in CIGS and VIS under heavier storms. Overnight the
concern becomes patchy valley fog and any location that gets
enhanced moisture from storms. Right now kept most sites VFR but
southern sites of SME/LOZ did add MVFR VIS. Given no steering flow
and high pressure no issues with winds are expected.


.JKL Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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