Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 201820
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
120 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 120 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

MADE ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO THIS AFTERNOON BASED ON LATEST TRENDS.
LOWERED CLOUD COVER A BIT MORE...AND RAISED TEMPS SLIGHTLY IN OUR SE
COUNTIES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1052 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

BASED ON OBS AND LATEST MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS...HAVE UPDATED
MAINLY FOR TEMPS AND CLOUD COVER. OVERALL...CLOUDS SHOULD BE A BIT
LESS EXTENSIVE THAN WAS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. EVEN SO...TEMPS SHOULD
NOT SHOW MUCH RISE TODAY...AS COLD AIR ADVECTION OFFSETS SOLAR
INSOLATION.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 757 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

FRESHENED UP THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES...DEW POINTS...AND SKY COVER TO
MATCH UP BETTER WITH THE LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS. TEMPERATURES
HAVE COOLED OFF TO THE MID AND UPPER 20S NEAR THE I-64
CORRIDOR...WITH LOWS STILL BEING ESTABLISHED ACROSS LOCATIONS TO THE
SOUTH. HAVE REMOVED FLURRIES FROM THE FORECAST WITH THE MOISTURE
BECOMING MORE AND MORE SHALLOW WITH TIME. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

A SURFACE COLD FRONT IS ALIGNED FROM CENTRAL WV DOWN ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL KENTUCKY...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FOUND ACROSS THE PLAINS
STATES. ALOFT...BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW IS CURRENTLY ENTRENCHED ACROSS
THE EASTERN CONUS...STEMMING FROM AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CHURNING ACROSS
SOUTHERN ONTARIO.

SOUTHWEST WINDS AND CLOUD COVER OUT AHEAD OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT
HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES UP ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY DURING THE
OVERNIGHT...WITH MOST OF THE VALLEYS AND RIDGE TOPS REMAINING IN THE
UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S. BEHIND THE FRONT...TEMPERATURES ARE STARTING
TO COOL OFF...WITH LOWER 30S FOUND ACROSS THE I-64 CORRIDOR AND LOWER
20S CLOSER TO THE OHIO RIVER. A FEW LIGHT RADAR RETURNS ARE SEEN
ACROSS SOUTHERN OHIO...WITH A STRAY FLURRY REPORT HERE AND
THERE.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...WITH THE
FRONT CLEARING EASTERN KENTUCKY THROUGH DAYBREAK. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN
TO SCATTER OUT DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH HIGHS REACHING THE LOWER
30S IN THE NORTH...TO THE LOWER 40S TO THE SOUTH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY TONIGHT...WITH
LOWS BACK DOWN INTO THE TEENS FOR MOST LOCATIONS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. THE HIGH WILL THEN SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH SOME MODEST RETURN FLOW STARTING TO WORK IN. HIGHS
WILL MODERATE SLIGHTLY TO THE MID 30S IN THE NORTH...TO THE MID 40S
IN THE SOUTH.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM EST THU NOV 20 2014

TO START OFF 0Z SATURDAY...EASTERN KY WILL FIND ITSELF IN A ZONAL
FLOW PATTERN...WITH A STRONG UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW TO OUR NE
EXITING OFF THE CANADIAN EAST COAST...AND A DEEPENING
SHORTWAVE/CLOSED LOW MOVING SW WARD ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS.
BETWEEN 0 AND 12Z SATURDAY...A SMALL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW EXPECTED ACROSS
THE REGION...ABUNDANT MOISTURE FLOW WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THE GULF
COAST AND UP THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. ALL MODELS ARE CONTINUING
TO SHOW PRECIP POTENTIAL FROM ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO RIVER
AND POINTS NORTHWARD. HOWEVER...NONE OF THE MODELS /WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE LATEST GFS/ SHOW THE PRECIP ACTUALLY MAKING IT INTO
EASTERN KY DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. THIS IS CONTRARY TO SOME OF THE
PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS...BUT SEEMS TO CONTINUE TO HAVE A SLOWING TREND
AWAY FROM OUR CWA...SO WILL TRY TO FOLLOW.

BY SUNDAY...THIS SHORTWAVE WILL LOSE CONSIDERABLE STRENGTH...WHILE
THE STRONGER SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS...ON THE OTHER
HAND...CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN. ALL MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT THE SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH EASTWARD INTO ARKLATEX
SATURDAY EVENING...AND THEN MAKE A QUICK SHIFT IN ITS DIRECTIONAL
TRACK...PULLING UP NE ACROSS KENTUCKY. AT THE SURFACE...THESE
LOWERED HEIGHTS WILL TRANSLATE TO A STRONG SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM...WITH ABUNDANT WAA ADVECTION AND MOISTURE FLOW OFF OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO AHEAD OF THE LOW. UNLIKE SATURDAY WHERE THE MODELS
WERE UNDETERMINED ON IF PRECIP WOULD AFFECT THE AREA...IT IS A
DEFINITE THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY REGION. IT IS A QUICK MOVER...SO ACCORDING TO THE LATEST GFS
AND ECMWF...PRECIP SHOULD MOVE INTO THE CWA BETWEEN 12 AND 18Z
SUNDAY...AND MOVE BACK OUT JUST AFTER 0Z MON. MODELS ALSO CONTINUE
TO SHOW AN EXCELLENT VEERING PATTERN WITH SRLY/WSW WINDS NEAR THE
SURFACE...AND GOOD SPEED SHEER IN THE LOW LEVELS AS WELL. AS A
RESULT...WILL KEEP THUNDER MENTIONED DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS
SUNDAY...BUT GIVEN THE STRONG LLVL CAP IN PLACE THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS...WOULD BE A LITTLE MORE HESITANT TO GO ABOVE SLIGHT CHANCES
AT THIS POINT. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE ALSO SHOWING A SECONDARY
BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH AFTER THE INITIAL FRONTAL PASSAGE...WHICH
COULD BRING YET ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIP TO KY SUNDAY NIGHT AND
THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY.

A LITTLE UNCERTAINTY SURROUNDS TUESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THE
ECMWF POINTS AT SOME LIGHT WRAP AROUND MOISTURE MOVING BACK INTO
NORTH CENTRAL KY...THE GFS DOES NOT. AFTER SOME COLLABORATING WITH
NEIGHBORING OFFICES...DECIDED TO GO AHEAD AND KEEP OUR MODEL
BLEND...WHICH FEATURED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THIS LOCATION AND TIME
PERIOD. REGARDLESS...IF ANYTHING DOES OCCUR...IT WILL LIKELY BE VERY
LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES...AND SHOULDN/T CAUSE TOO MUCH IMPACT.
ASSUMING IT EVEN SHOWS UP IN THE NEXT MODEL RUNS. GIVEN THE BOUNCING
AROUND NATURE OF THE MODELS DURING THE END OF THE
EXTENDED...WOULDN/T BE SURPRISED ONE WAY OR ANOTHER.

IT IS DURING THIS TIME /SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY/ THAT THE SHORTWAVE
ALOFT WILL MERGE WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM AND CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY.
GIVEN THE MERGER LOCATION DUE NORTH OF KY MONDAY NIGHT...IT IS
ENTIRELY POSSIBLE THAT SOME WRAP AROUND MOISTURE COULD AFFECT KY AS
WE HEAD INTO MIDWEEK. UNFORTUNATELY MODELS DISAGREE ON THIS
SUBJECT...WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING PRECIP...AND THE GFS NOT. WILL
CONTINUE TO GO WITH GENERAL CONSENSUS THIS FAR OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 120 PM EST THU NOV 20 2014

VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF SOME
IFR OR MVFR CEILINGS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY...MAINLY IN THE
NE PART OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...AT THIS POINT THE PROBABILITY IS LOW
ENOUGH THAT FORECAST IS NOT CALLING FOR CEILINGS. WINDS WILL BE A
LITTLE BRISK THIS AFTERNOON...SUSTAINED AROUND 10 KTS OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA...WITH A FEW GUSTS BETWEEN 15 AND 20 KTS. THE WINDS WILL DIE
DOWN EARLY THIS EVENING.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...HAL





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