Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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392
FXUS63 KJKL 200549 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
149 AM EDT Sun Aug 20 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 149 AM EDT SUN AUG 20 2017

The forecast continues to be on track as fog sets in across the
river valleys once again. Temperatures are running a few degrees
warmer compared to last night at this time, with forecast lows
still looking on target.

UPDATE Issued at 1040 PM EDT SAT AUG 19 2017

The forecast remains on track so far tonight. Fog will be the
weather issue of note late tonight into early Sunday morning,
especially in valleys and near bodies of water. The latest obs
were ingested into the hourly forecast to establish new trends. No
other changes to the forecast were needed.

UPDATE Issued at 800 PM EDT SAT AUG 19 2017

A forecast update has been issued this evening, to remove the late
afternoon period that the dayshift had included with the 4 pm
package. The latest obs were also ingested into the hourly
forecast grids to establish new trends.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 332 PM EDT SAT AUG 19 2017

Afternoon surface analysis shows an area of high pressure off to
the southwest with winds light out of the SW. This will keep much
of the region under mostly sunny skies with a few CU or higher
level clouds passing through. That said, a trough axis continues
to move across the region, and this is leading the development of
a few showers and thunderstorms to our northwest. Some of these
could drop southeast into the Bluegrass and therefore kept the
slight POPs going for a few more hours in the grids. These
isolated storms will diminish late this afternoon and we will be
left with mostly clear skies tonight.

Models are in good agreement with heights rising in the wake of
the previously mentioned trough and given the clearing skies kept
at least patchy fog across a good portion of Eastern KY. Did opt
to go areas in the deeper valley locations. The fog will burn off
through the morning on Sunday. Then continued rising heights will
lead to a mostly sunny day for Sunday, but a few afternoon CU
will remain possible. These rising heights will combine with
rising 850mb temperatures to send the temperatures into the upper
80s for most by Sunday afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 410 PM EDT SAT AUG 19 2017

Ridging at the surface and aloft over the southeast CONUS should
result in a quiet but warm start to the period. For the partial
solar eclipse on Monday, some fair weather cu and thin ci are
expected, but at this time it does not look like enough to foil
the event. Based on what was reported during an annular eclipse in
1994, have made some minor adjustments to our temperature grids on
Monday. Have allowed for the temps to level off or even dip
slightly near the peak coverage, and have shaved a couple degrees
off of what would otherwise be the maximum.

A southwest to northeast oriented upper trough dropping southeast
into the CONUS is expected to settle over the Great Lakes by
Tuesday evening. A cold front associated with it will approach
from the northwest on Tuesday and Tuesday night, and move through
on Wednesday. Showers and thunderstorms are likely for most of the
area ahead of the front, with anything lingering into Wednesday
coming to an end as the front departs. The upper trough will be
fairly significant, similar to others we`ve seen periodically late
this summer. This will result in a very noticeable change to a
cooler and drier air mass at mid week, with lows at least as cool
as the 50s for a few nights in a row late in the week, and highs
in most locations not getting out of the 70s.

By Saturday there could be enough low level moisture creeping
back to the north for some showers/thunderstorms to pop up. Any
activity would likely be poorly organized, low in coverage, and at
this point appearing to be limited to the southern part of the
area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
ISSUED AT 149 AM EDT SUN AUG 20 2017

IFR or worse fog will be seen along the river valleys through
12z. Have included temporary IFR at SME, and LIFR or lower at LOZ,
given the clear skies and LOZ already reporting 3SM. The fog will
burn off by 13z at most locations, with a few cumulus at around
5k feet agl seen during the day. Winds will average less than 5
kts through the period.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...DJ
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN



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