Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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122
FXUS63 KJKL 031745
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
145 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 145 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

MOST OF THE LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY HAS BROKEN
UP AND A FEW PEAKS OF SUN ARE REACHING THE SURFACE. AS WELL...SOME
SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOP BUT THE CURRENT FORECAST STILL SEEMS TO HAVE
A HANDLE ON THIS. HAVE LOADED THE MOST CURRENT OBSERVATIONS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1007 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

ISSUED AN UPDATE THIS MORNING TO INPUT THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS.
LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL PERSIST IN MOST PLACES TO THE EAST.
SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER TO THE WEST WILL LEAD TO SOME CU
DEVELOPMENT. FURTHER BREAK UP OF CLOUD COVER EASTWARD MAY LEAD TO
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS DEVELOPING. WILL LEAVE THE FORECAST
AS IS FOR NOW.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 702 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

STILL A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS OUT THERE THIS MORNING IN THE
EAST...BUT CERTAINLY LESS COVERAGE THAN EARLIER AND THAT SHOULD
CONTINUE TO BE THE TREND OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WATCHING THE
TROUGH AXIS TO THE NORTH OVER CENTRAL INDIANA AND SOUTHERN OHIO
START TO LIGHT UP WITH SOME LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY. THIS SHOULD
SLOWLY SINK SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHERN KENTUCKY INTO THIS AFTERNOON.
A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AS THIS FEATURE MOVES IN. OVERALL
FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE THIS MORNING...SO NO CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

COLD FRONT HAS NOW SLIPPED INTO SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY AND WILL
CONTINUE TO SLIP JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE KENTUCKY BY DAYBREAK. SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOP ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THIS
BOUNDARY...AND MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD ALSO BE SHIFTING
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING. MEANWHILE...A SURFACE
TROUGH WILL SLIP SOUTH INTO NORTHERN KENTUCKY THIS MORNING AND
STALL OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF AN ISOLATED
SHOWER ACROSS NORTHERN AND NORTHEAST KENTUCKY THROUGH THE DAY
TODAY. FARTHER SOUTH...NOT MUCH SUPPORT FOR SHOWERS ONCE THE FRONT
EXITS SOUTH AND EAST...SO WILL ACTUALLY SQUEEZE IN A MUCH NEEDED
DRY DAY FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. TONIGHT...NOT MUCH
CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH JUST INCHING EAST
AND SOUTH OVERNIGHT. THUS...WILL MAINTAIN SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL KICK THINGS OUT AS MID
LEVEL RIDGING SPREADS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. THIS WILL
TEMPORARILY END ANY SHOWER CHANCES. HOWEVER...THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS KENTUCKY LATE WEDNESDAY
MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. IMPRESSIVE FORCING
WITH THE FRONT SHOULD YIELD A BROKEN TO PERHAPS WIDESPREAD LINE OF
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE INSTABILITY IS
WEAK...FREEZING LEVELS SHOULD BE COMING DOWN WITH THE FRONT...SO
SOME LOW TOPPED THUNDERSTORMS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. WITH THE
FREEZING LEVELS ONLY ABOUT 5.5KFT...CERTAINLY POSSIBLE WE COULD
SEE ANY STORMS PRODUCING SOME PEA SIZE HAIL. WILL INCLUDE THE
MENTION OF HAIL IN THE HWO THIS MORNING.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...TODAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER AS CLOUDS
WILL LIKELY STAY IN PLACE WITH THE TROUGH AXIS. WILL ALSO GO
SLIGHTLY WARMER WITH LESS VALLEY/RIDGE DISPARITY FOR TONIGHT WITH
ANTICIPATED CLOUD COVER. TOMORROW...WE MAY BE ABLE TO WARM UP
BRIEFLY BY MIDDAY BEFORE THE COLD FRONT BRINGS FALLING
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS ALONG WITH
THE RAIN SHOWERS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

A CHILLY REGIME WILL BE IN PLACE TO START THE PERIOD...AS A DEEP
UPPER LOW DESCENDS SOUTH OVER KY...AND THEN TURNS TOWARD THE EAST
COAST. LINGERING MOISTURE AND STEEP LAPSE RATES UNDER THE LOW WILL
KEEP A THREAT OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST AT LEAST INTO THURSDAY...
BEFORE THE UPPER LOW DEPARTS TO THE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
AND TAKES THE PRECIP WITH IT. THUNDERSTORMS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT
ON WEDNESDAY EVENING...BEFORE THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS ENOUGH TO
PUT AN END TO DEEP CONVECTION. IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH BY THURSDAY
MORNING THAT A FEW SNOWFLAKES COULD BE SEEN AT THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS NEAR THE VA BORDER.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE PASSING BY TO OUR SOUTHWEST WILL BRING A
PERIOD OF FAIR WEATHER ARRIVING THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. WARM
AIR ADVECTION AND A RETURN OF SUNSHINE WILL RESULT IN A
SIGNIFICANT WARMING TREND FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

AN UPPER TROUGH DROPPING SOUTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHEAST CANADA
SHOULD SEND A COLD FRONT SOUTH THROUGH KENTUCKY LATE IN THE
WEEKEND. IT WILL STALL NEARBY BEFORE HEADING BACK NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT EARLY IN THE NEW WORK WEEK. MOISTURE AND UPPER SUPPORT LOOK
LIMITED... BUT NEVER THE LESS...MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN
GENERATING LIGHT PRECIP ALONG THE FRONT. LOW POPS WILL CONTINUE TO
BE MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 145 PM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

WHILE MOST OF THE CLOUD COVER HAS LIFTED INTO A CUMULUS LAYER
ACROSS THE AREA...A FEW MVFR CIGS STILL REMAIN. THIS WILL BEGIN TO
LIFT LATER THIS EVENING. AS TEMPS COOL OFF TONIGHT AND NORTHWEST
FLOW CONTINUES...CIGS WILL LOWER AGAIN TONIGHT AND WITH ANY
CLEARING AREAS...SOME FOG WILL DEVELOP. WILL ANTICIPATE IFR AND
BELOW CIGS AGAIN TONIGHT BEFORE LIFTING AGAIN AFTER 13Z TOMORROW.
AS THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE AREA...SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA TOMORROW AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL RELATIVELY BE LIGHT AND OUT OF THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SHALLENBERGER
SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER



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