Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KJKL 280615 AAD
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
215 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 205 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016

HOURLY GRIDS HAVE BEEN UPDATED TO TREND THE AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION AS WELL AS MORE SCATTERED ACTIVITY
AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THIS. POPS WERE CARRIED THE REMAINDER OF THE
NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD SUPPORT ADDITIONAL CONVECTION MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1000 PM EDT WED APR 27 2016

MAIN LINE OF RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS ENCROACHING ON THE
AREA AS OF 02Z. THIS LINE HAS WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY AS IT CROSSED
CENTRAL KENTUCKY EARLIER THIS EVENING SO ONLY EXPECT HEAVY
RAIN...SOME GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHTNING AS IT MOVES INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. FURTHER WEAKENING OF THE LINE IS ANTICIPATED AS IT
CROSSES THROUGH EASTERN KENTUCKY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

IN TERMS OF THE FORECAST GRIDS...UPDATED POPS BASED ON RADAR
TRENDS...AND REFRESHED HOURLY GRIDS TO REFLECT MOST RECENT OBS.
SENT UPDATED GRIDS TO NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 642 PM EDT WED APR 27 2016

UPDATED SKY AND POP GRIDS BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. ALSO
REFRESHED THE HOURLY GRIDS TO REFLECT MOST RECENT OBS. WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY
RAIN SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING AS WELL BUT
THINKING MOST OF IT WILL REMAIN SUB SEVERE. SENT UPDATED GRIDS TO
NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 327 PM EDT WED APR 27 2016

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS
EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND DURING THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL DATA...AND RADAR
IMAGERY FROM AROUND THE REGION...IT APPEARS THAT SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA IN WAVES THROUGH TOMORROW
MORNING. A WESTWARD MOVING COLD FRONT WILL BE WHAT BRINGS US OUR
PRECIPITATION OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS. WITH INSTABILITY AND
WIND SHEAR LIMITED...ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT OCCUR SHOULD BE OF THE
GARDEN VARIETY. ONCE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING...THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF
FROM WEST TO EAST. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
LINGER THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THE LAST FEW SHOWERS SHOULD BE
OUT OF THE AREA BY AROUND DAWN ON FRIDAY...IF NOT SOONER. WINDS
WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND GENERALLY OUT OF THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST
THROUGH TOMORROW EVENING...AND WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST THURSDAY
NIGHT AFTER THE FRONT HAS PASSED BY.

TEMPERATURES DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE TIME OF YEAR...ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAY
ON THURSDAY...WHEN WE COULD SEE HIGHS TOP OUT AROUND 80 DEGREES.
OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE FORECAST TO BOTTOM OUT AROUND 60 TONIGHT...AND
IN THE LOW TO MID 50S TOMORROW NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM EDT WED APR 27 2016

THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST BEGINS ON FRIDAY IN THE MIDDLE
OF AN ACTIVE AND PROGRESSIVE PATTERN. AT THIS TIME...WE WILL
BE UNDER A BREAK IN THE ACTIVE WEATHER AS A SHORTWAVE RIDGE
PASSES OVERHEAD THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY. IN THIS ACTIVE PATTERN
THE NEXT FEATURE TO IMPACT THE REGION WILL BEGIN ON SATURDAY. AT
THIS TIME ANOTHER LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS A
SHORTWAVE EJECTS INTO THE MIDWEST AND OH VALLEY REGION FOR THE
WEEKEND. HEADING INTO THE NEW WEEK...NUMEROUS SHORTWAVES WILL
TRACK ACROSS THE UPPER OH VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION
BRINGING UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE WEEKEND.

CLOSER TO THE SURFACE...WE BEGIN ON SATURDAY WITH ANOTHER WARM FRONT
IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTH JUST LIKE THE LAST SYSTEM...BUT SET
UP WITH THIS FEATURE SEEMS FARTHER NORTH. EAST KENTUCKY BEING IN
THE WARM SECTOR THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL LEAVE
WARM...MOIST...AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A
LACK OF FORCING...SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS SCENARIO. WITH
THIS...SATURDAY AND SUNDAY SEEM TO FEATURE A DIURNAL LIKE TREND
WITH THE MAX CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE HEAT OF THE DAY
AND LIKELY JUST MARGINAL OR STRONG STORMS AT THE VERY MOST
EXPECTED. AS WELL...WITH ANY CLOUD COVER THAT LINGERS WITH
PREVIOUS STORMS WILL TAKE AWAY FROM THE ALREADY LACK OF
INSTABILITY. FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO OCCUR
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS CONTINUING INTO MONDAY. ANY CHANCE OF
STRONGER STORMS LOOK TO HOLD OFF UNTIL WITH OR JUST AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. AFTER THIS...WILL RESULT IN A COOL DOWN WITH TEMPERATURES
A BIT BELOW NORMAL FOR THE LAST 2 DAYS OF THE EXTENDED.

MODELS LOOK TO BE SOMEWHAT IN AGREEMENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE
EXTENDED BUT THE GFS DRIES OUT THE AREA TOWARDS THE END OF THE
EXTENDED WITH THE EURO KEEP PRECIP AROUND FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD.
THIS WAS DISPLAYED AS WELL WITH THE ALL MODEL BLEND ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY KEEPING PRECIP OVER THE AREA. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE TAKES A
MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY FOR MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP INTO THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 205 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016

AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA AND
GENERALLY BRINGING A PERIOD OF MVFR WITH VIS FOR A BRIEF TIME DOWN
INTO THE IFR RANGE. THIS SHOULD AFFECT JKL AND SJS INITIALLY WITH
MORE SCATTERED CONVECTION BRINING MVFR AT TIMES TO LOZ...SME...AND
SYM MAINLY THROUGH 8Z. HOWEVER...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY JKL AND SJS
THROUGH AS LATE AS THE 18Z TO 0Z PERIOD. THIS CONVECTION COULD
BRING VIS AND OR CIGS DOWN INTO THE MVFR RANGE WITH BRIEF IFR
POSSIBLE. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN AT 10KT OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD
SOUTHERLY INITIALLY...THEN BECOMING WESTERLY FROM ABOUT 18Z ON.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...JP


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.