Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 192054
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
354 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

19Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE STILL IN CONTROL OF THE WX OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY. THE LOWER CLOUDS OVER THE NORTHEAST ARE FINALLY
RESPONDING TO THE DRIER AIR FROM THIS HIGH BY ERODING OFF BENEATH A
LAYER OF HIGH CLOUDS SPREADING IN AND THICKENING FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA VARY FROM THE CHILLY LOW 30S IN THE
NORTH TO THE LOWER 40S IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST. MEANWHILE...WITH LIGHT
WINDS IN PLACE OVER THE AREA...DEWPOINTS VARY FROM THE LOW 20S NORTH
TO THE MID 20S SOUTH.

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A COUPLE OF
DAMPENING WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE REGION OVER THE NEXT 36 TO 48
HOURS. THE FIRST OF THESE WILL PASS TO THE SOUTH LATE TONIGHT AND
INTO SATURDAY MORNING...WHILE A BIT BETTER DEFINED ONE WILL MOVE
JUST NORTH OF EAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL OHIO VALLEY DURING THE DAY
SATURDAY. THE MODELS ALSO CONTINUED THEIR TREND OF THESE WAVES BEING
WEAKER AND OF LESS SUBSTANCE. LATER SATURDAY NIGHT...HEIGHTS WILL
RISE AHEAD OF THE NEXT MORE SIGNIFICANT TROUGH. ACCORDINGLY...HAVE
FOLLOWED A BLENDED SOLUTION AND LEANED MORE CLOSELY TO THE NAM12 AND
HRRR.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE CLOUDS THICKENING AND LOWERING THROUGH
THE NIGHT WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW OR RAIN MOVING INTO OUR
SOUTHERNMOST AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY QPF
OUT OF THIS WITH MOST OF THE PCPN FALLING AS JUST VIRGA OR
FLURRIES/SPRINKLES. GIVEN THE DRY DEWPOINTS THE PCPN RATE WILL LIKELY
NOT FALL FAST ENOUGH TO CONTRIBUTE TO WETBULBING...KEEPING IT AS
LIQUID LONGER THAN NORMAL IN THESE TYPE OF SITUATIONS. THE WEAK
SOUTHERN WAVE WILL MOVE AWAY FROM KENTUCKY BY NOON SATURDAY WITH EVEN
SOME CLEARING POSSIBLE BEFORE EVENING. THIS WILL MAKE FOR A TRICKY
TEMPERATURE FORECAST INTO SATURDAY WITH A WIDE VARIANCE BETWEEN THE
COOLER MET NUMBERS AND THE MUCH MILDER MAV ONES. AS WE ARE LEANING
MORE TOWARD THE STILL RATHER DRY NAM12 SOLUTION WILL ALSO FAVOR THE
COOLER MET MAX T NUMBERS. ANOTHER COOL NIGHT FOLLOWS INTO SUNDAY
MORNING AS SOME CLEARING WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THE WEST.

AGAIN USED THE BCCONSSHORT AS A STARTING POINT FOR THE T/TD/WIND
GRIDS FOR THE FIRST 20 HOURS OR SO BEFORE POPULATING WITH THE
SUPERBLEND THEREAFTER. ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE FOR TERRAIN
EFFECTS BOTH TONIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT GIVEN THE CLOUDS...BUT DID
DROP THE MAXT DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM THE TOO WARM BLEND. AS
FOR POPS...ENDED UP CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE WETTER MET AND DRY MAV
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...AND THEN DRY ON SATURDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

ACTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES TO BE THE STORY FOR MUCH OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. SUNDAY DOES LOOK QUIET FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS...HOWEVER CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH THROUGH THE DAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS IS SYSTEM ONE WHICH
WILL COME FROM THE SOUTHERN BRANCH AND WILL BRING BEST CHANCES OF ALL
RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS NE
BUT THERE IS QUESTIONS AS TO THE PHASING OF THIS SOUTHERN AND
IMPENDING NORTHERN BRANCH SYSTEM. GIVEN SOME UNCERTAINTY WILL KEEP
SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

THEN FOCUS SHIFTS TO THE NORTHERN SYSTEM AS UPPER LEVEL LOW AND
SURFACE LOW APPROACHES THE GREAT LAKES MONDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS ARE
STILL NOT IN AGREEMENT ON WHAT HAPPENS WITH THIS SYSTEM IN TERMS OF
TIMING AND EVOLUTION. THE GFS DEVELOPS A SECONDARY LOW LATER THAT
MOVES NE ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF
DEVELOPS A LOW ACROSS TN AND OH VALLEY THEN MOVES IT STRAIGHT NE
TUESDAY NIGHT. THESE TIMING AND EVOLUTION ISSUES WILL PLAY A ROLE IN
HOW MUCH PRECIP AND PRECIP TYPES. EITHER WAY THINKING WEDNESDAY WE
WILL SEE RAIN/SNOW TO SNOW AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE DAY INTO THE NIGHT
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION...HOWEVER IT DOES LOOK LIKE IT WILL BE
MORE WRAP AROUND LATER WEDNESDAY. THE WRAP AROUND SNOW SHOWERS
SHOULD DIE DOWN AS WE MOVE THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY WITH SYSTEM
TRACKING INTO THE FAR NE US BY THURSDAY NIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
OFF TO THE SOUTH AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE
SE US THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL LEAD TO RETURN FLOW AND
HIGH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE LOWER 50S BY FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 125 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

LOW...MVFR...CLOUDS ARE LINGERING OVER THE NORTHEAST PORTION OF THE
AREA WITH JUST HIGH CLOUDS SEEN ELSEWHERE. EXPECT THE NORTHEAST
CLOUDS TO BREAK UP LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS THE HIGHER CLOUDS SLOWLY
START TO THICKEN AND DESCEND. THESE CLOUDS ARE COMING FROM WEAK LOW
PRESSURE WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA. THIS LOW WILL BRUSH BY
EASTERN KENTUCKY LATER TONIGHT AND INTO THE DAY SATURDAY. CANNOT RULE
OUT SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW OVER OUR SOUTHERNMOST PARTS OF THE AREA
WITH MAYBE A SPRINKLE OR FLURRY FURTHER TO THE NORTH. IN THE SOUTH WE
COULD SEE SOME MVFR CIGS RETURN AS THE MAIN SYSTEM PASSES LATE
TONIGHT...OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE. WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT AND VARIABLE.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...GREIF








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