Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 290610 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
210 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 210 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

FRESHENED UP THE HOURLY SKY COVER...TEMPERATURES...AND DEW POINTS
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SCATTERED HIGHER BASED CU IS STARTING TO
MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST...ALONG WITH SOME THICKER HIGH CLOUDS.
THIS SHOULD KEEP THE LOWS FROM BOTTOMING OUT TOO MUCH MORE IN THE
SOUTH. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1029 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE ON TRACK EARLY TONIGHT. A LARGE RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND WILL
REMAIN IN CONTROL OF AREA WEATHER OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
CALM WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES ASSOCIATED WITH THIS RIDGE WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR A RIDGE VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT AND VALLEY FOG
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. THE LATEST OBS HAVE BEEN
INGESTED INTO THE HOURLY FORECAST GRIDS TO ESTABLISH NEW TRENDS
FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ASIDE FROM THAT THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN
UNCHANGED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 732 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

THE FORECAST FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY IS STILL ON TRACK SO FAR THIS
EVENING. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR
A RIDGE VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT AND VALLEY FOG OVERNIGHT.
TONIGHTS TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE A BIT WARMER THAN WHAT WE SAW
LATE LAST NIGHT AND EARLY THIS MORNING...AS CONDITIONS WERE MUCH
WARM TODAY THAN THE PREVIOUS FEW DAYS. ASIDE FROM INGESTING THE
LATEST OBS DATA INTO THE FORECAST GRIDS TO ESTABLISH NEW
TRENDS...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WERE NECESSARY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 330 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE AND RETURN MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE THE THREAT FOR SOME SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY EVENING. EXPECT ANY
ACTIVITY THAT DOES MANAGE TO DEVELOP TO BE ISOLD AND DIURNALLY
DRIVEN...DISSIPATING BY AROUND SUNSET. THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN
INCREASES AGAIN TOWARDS DAWN SUNDAY AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH GETS
CLOSER TO OUR AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO MODERATE TO NEAR
NORMAL LEVELS. DEW POINTS WILL ALSO RISE...MAKING IT FEEL LESS
COMFORTABLE THAN THE PREVIOUS FEW DAYS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

OUR FORECAST IS A TAD BIT MUDDLED AS THE AREA LIES IN BETWEEN TWO
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CORES...ONE LOCATED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
AND THE OTHER OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. WEAK SHORTWAVES IN
BETWEEN THESE RIDGE CORES WILL AFFECT US THROUGH TIME. MOISTURE
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS WELL AS SOUTHWEST FLOW AROUND THE RIDGE
CORE TO OUR EAST TAPS INTO SOME TROPICAL MOISTURE...INCLUDING
POTENTIALLY SOME MOISTURE FROM WHAT IS NOW TROPICAL STORM ERIKA
LATE IN THE PERIOD.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE THE THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW NOW
LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF SHIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR REGION.
ONCE THIS PASSES...THE THREAT FOR RAIN DIMINISHES WITH PERHAPS AN
AFTERNOON SHOWER OR STORM POSSIBLE OVER OUR HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG
THE VIRGINIA AND TENNESSEE BORDERS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. RAIN
CHANCES...ALBEIT LOW...WILL THEN CREEP BACK INTO THE FORECAST
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS MODELS INDICATE A REINFORCING SHOT OF
MOISTURE MOVING BACK NORTH INTO THE AREA PERHAPS ASSOCIATED WITH
ERIKA...ALTHOUGH THERE IS NOT REAL CONSENSUS ON WHERE THAT SYSTEM
WILL BE BY THAT FAR OUT IN TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 210 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

MVFR OR WORSE FOG WILL SET IN ACROSS MAINLY THE VALLEYS THROUGH
THE REST OF THE NIGHT...INCLUDING SME...LOZ AND SJS. SOME
TEMPORARY IFR IS POSSIBLE AT LOZ...HOWEVER EXPECT THE SCATTERED
HIGHER BASED CU TO KEEP VISIBILITIES IN CHECK THROUGH
DAWN. ONCE THE FOG BURNS OFF BY BETWEEN 12 AND 13Z...EXPECT VFR
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL. SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL THREATEN
DURING THE DAY...HOWEVER WILL LEAVE OUT A MENTION AT THE TAF SITES
FOR NOW GIVEN THE EXPECTED LIMITED AREAL COVERAGE. WINDS WILL
ENGAGE OUT OF THE SSW AT AROUND 5 KTS DURING THE DAY.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...RAY
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN


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