Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 171155 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
755 AM EDT Sun Sep 17 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 755 AM EDT SUN SEP 17 2017

Freshened up the hourly temperature rise into this morning,
otherwise the forecast remains on track, with most fog burning
off between 9 and 10 am. Updates have been sent.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 355 AM EDT SUN SEP 17 2017

The latest surface map features high pressure from New England
down to the lower Mississippi Valley. Aloft, troughing is ruling
across the West, while ridging is found in the East.

Another foggy start to the morning will be on tap for eastern
Kentucky today. The fog will burn off by the mid-morning hours,
with mostly sunny skies then prevailing with highs in the lower
80s. The upper level ridge axis will remain in place across the
Ohio and Tennessee valleys through early next week, with lows
tonight in the upper 50s to lower 60s, with areas of dense valley
fog once again. Monday will feature a few more clouds, with highs
similar to today, generally lower 80s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 402 AM EDT SUN SEP 17 2017

Models continue to display pretty good agreement through the
extended. However, run to run consistency over the last few days has
been less than ideal with all the models, leading to a little lower
confidence than normal. Models depict a mean mid-level ridge over
the lower Ohio Valley through much of the period. This mean ridge
breaks down late Tuesday through Wednesday in response to Jose as it
rides up the Atlantic coast. This allows some shortwave energy to
pass through the Ohio Valley during the same time frame, late
Tuesday through Wednesday. Previous run(s) had ridging building back
into the region. However, most recent runs have backed off on this
scenario and now leave what could best be described as some
troughiness across the southeast CONUS and Tennessee Valley while
the center of greatest heights shift more northward over the
Great Lakes.

Sensible weather remains generally uneventful and warm through the
extended. A short wave disturbance will bring the threat of rain to
portions of the area between Tuesday afternoon and Wednesday
evening. Thereafter, aforementioned troughiness across the
southeast CONUS will keep a slight threat of rain in the forecast
for at least portions of the area through the remainder of the
extended period. Forecast soundings show enough surface based
instability to allow for the mention of thunder, mainly in the
afternoon and early evening time frame. High temperatures will
average around 5 degrees above normal. Highs will run in the lower
80s and overnight lows in the 60s. Conditions remain favorable
for patchy/areas of fog each night.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
ISSUED AT 755 AM EDT SUN SEP 17 2017

LIFR or worse fog will lift and burn off between 13 and 14z, with
VFR conditions prevailing into this evening. Some scattered
cumulus at around 5k feet agl will be seen during the day, with
IFR or worse fog seen once again in the valleys between 06 and
12z. Winds will average below 5 kts through the period.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...RAY
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN



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