Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 141613

National Weather Service Jackson KY
1113 AM EST Thu Dec 14 2017

Issued at 1113 AM EST THU DEC 14 2017

Wind gusts continue to trend downward in magnitude with peak
values currently in the 10-15 mph range. Diminishing winds will
continue as high pressure builds across the Ohio Valley, also
promoting the slow mixing/lifting of low clouds through the
afternoon. Nonetheless, temperatures will be largely limited to
the 30s this afternoon with perhaps a few locales along the
Tennessee border reaching 40 degrees in a post-frontal airmass.

UPDATE Issued at 731 AM EST THU DEC 14 2017

The cold front has made its way southeast of the Commonwealth. The
gusty winds will continue to diminish through the mid-morning
hours, with temperatures bottoming out around the same time. Have
freshened up the hourly temperatures to reflect the continued drop
through around 10 am, before nudging back upward through the rest
of the afternoon. Updates have been sent.


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 335 AM EST THU DEC 14 2017

A quick-moving area of surface low pressure has made its way into
western PA. The attendant cold front is aligned southeast of a
line from KSYM to KGLW. Winds have been gusty across eastern
Kentucky into the overnight, with speeds ranging from 25 to 35 mph
at times. Currently, most temperatures range from upper 30s and
lower 40s near the Bluegrass, to the mid 40s out ahead of the
surface boundary. Aloft, an amplified pattern remains in place,
with northwest flow guiding plenty of short wave energy, generally
along and north of the Mason-Dixon Line.

For eastern Kentucky, yet another reinforcing shot of colder air
will be the main story across the area for the short term.
Temperatures will bottom out through the mid-morning hours, as
readings fall off behind the frontal passage. Winds will also be
on the decrease through the morning, as the surface low pulls
further away. A soft diurnal rise will occur today, amidst plenty
of low and mid-level cloud cover. Afternoon highs will range from
the mid to upper 30s for most locations, with perhaps a few 40
degree readings southwest of I-75, where clouds will be thinner.

Lower clouds will diminish into this evening, as drier air advects
in; however, mid-level clouds will continue aloft, as a short wave
trough moves through the Ohio Valley. The clouds will keep the
low temperatures from achieving readings similar to yesterday
morning. A few upper teens look possible southwest of I-75, again
where clouds will be a bit thinner, with generally lower 20s
expected elsewhere.

Friday will see decreasing clouds, as the short wave trough exits
off to our east. Highs will be similar to today, generally between
35 and 40 degrees, with locations in the north perhaps a degree or
so warmer compared to today.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 335 AM EST THU DEC 14 2017

The latest model data is showing two periods of active weather in
the extended. The first period of active weather looks to be the
period from Sunday morning through early Monday night. Although some
minor timing differences exist, the models in general have a large
trough of low pressure aloft moving down the west coast of the CONUS
Saturday night into Sunday. As this trough moves into the
southwestern CONUS, a smaller scale trough of low pressure is
progged to form over the southern Plains Saturday night as well.
This second area of low pressure is what will likely be our weather
maker Sunday and Monday, as it moves through the Tennessee and Ohio
Valley regions. There could be a brief period of rain and snow
Sunday morning, before temperatures are able to rise above freezing
across the area. After that, rain is expected across eastern
Kentucky through the day on Monday. There may also be a brief
period of rain/snow mix along and north of I64 late Sunday night,
as a bit of colder air may filter into that area. The overall
model guidance has come in slower with the system for Sunday, and
the forecast will reflect that. A much weaker and faster moving
area of low pressure is then forecast to move up from the lower
Mississippi and Tennessee valley regions late Monday night and
Tuesday. This system could bring a bit of rain to eastern Kentucky
from late Monday night through early Tuesday evening. After that,
the rest of the week looks to be high and dry, as a large ridge
of high pressure is progged to settle over the eastern portion of
the CONUS.

Daytime highs should generally be in the 40s and 50s, with nightly
lows mostly in the 30s expected. Friday night looks to be the
exception at this time, with lows in the 20s forecast for that
period, as partly cloudy skies and light winds should allow for good
radiational cooling. A few of our eastern valley locations may also
bottom out in the upper 20s Saturday night before the main push of
cloud cover is able to envelope the area.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)

A cold front has exited into TN/VA, with MVFR clouds hanging on
for a few more hours in the wake of its departure. Ceilings will
then raise up to 3-5k feet agl. Low level clouds will break up
through this afternoon, with at least some mid-level clouds
hanging around through the rest of the period. Northwest winds of
around 10 kts, with gusts of 15 to 20 kts, will also diminish to 5
to 10 kts after 15z. Winds will then become light and variable
after dusk.




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