Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 281805 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
205 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 205 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015

FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS HAS FILLED IN NICELY THROUGH EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. FORECAST HIGHS STILL LOOK ON TARGET...HOWEVER DID UP
THE SKY COVER BASED ON THE SATELLITE TRENDS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1047 AM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015

THE FORECAST IS RIGHT ON TRACK. JUST MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO
THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES BASED ON THE LATEST TRENDS IN
OBSERVATIONS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 655 AM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015

UNSEASONABLE COOL START THIS MORNING WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID
50S ACROSS THE REGION. STILL EXPECTING A BEAUTIFUL DAY ACROSS THE
REGION AS THE W TO NW FLOW HAS SET UP BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS WILL
BRING MID TO UPPER 70S FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY. UPDATED GRIDS
WITH LATEST OBS AND TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015

MODELS CONTINUE TO INITIALIZE QUITE WELL WHEN COMPARING THIS WITH
THE UA DATA. THE CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO TRACK NE INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. OVERALL PATTERN WILL REMAIN THE SAME WITH LONG WAVE TROUGH
IN THE EASTERN CONUS AND STRONG RIDGE IN THE WESTERN CONUS.
ANOTHER EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE DROPS SE THROUGH THE PERIOD BRINGING A
RETURN OF UNSETTLED WEATHER MONDAY.

SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS MORNING INDICATES SURFACE LOW CONTINUING TO
WRAP UP ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION AS IT BECOMES
VERTICALLY STACKED. THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT OFF A SECONDARY LOW
STRETCHING SW FROM THE MID ATLANTIC REGION TO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. HERE IN EASTERN KY WE ARE ENJOYING NW/W
FLOW THAT IS USHERING IN DRIER AND COOLER AIR. GIVEN THIS SUNDAY
WILL BE QUITE NICE WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AND DRY CONDITIONS.
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE AND COLD FRONT DROP SE LATE IN THE PERIOD.
THIS WILL INTRODUCE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS EARLY MONDAY AND POSSIBLY
AN AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM. HOWEVER MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT
INSTABILITY IS LACKING AND MAY BE BETTER AS WE MOVE INTO MONDAY
EVENING. THEREFORE DID KEEP ACTIVITY ISOLATED AND SCATTERED AT
THIS POINT...GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN LIFTING FEATURES AND INSTABILITY
DURING THIS PORTION OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A MEAN EASTERN CONUS
LONG WAVE TROUGH THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. DIFFERENCES ARE
MUCH MORE APPARENT WITH BOUNDARY LAYER/SFC DETAILS AND TIMING OF
DISTURBANCES. MODELS DO HINT AT THE POSSIBILITY OF THE MID/UPPER
LEVEL FLOW FLATTENING OUT A BIT LATE IN THE WEEK. BUT OVERALL
PATTERN SUGGESTS ADDITIONAL UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR EASTERN KENTUCKY
WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES...HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER
80S.

CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW DUE TO DIFFERENCES IN MODEL DETAILS AND
THEREFORE HOW SENSIBLE WEATHER PLAYS OUT. THEREFORE WILL CONTINUE TO
STAY CLOSE TO BLENDED SOLUTIONS/GUIDANCE. IN GENERAL DID ALLOW FOR
LOWER POPS DURING TIMES OF WEAKER FORCING...MAINLY DURING THE NIGHT
TIME PERIODS WITH LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING. HOWEVER...THE OPERATIONAL
ECMWF AND GFS DO SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL OF SOME MCS ACTIVITY DURING A
WED-THU TIME FRAME. THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN LOOKS FAVORABLE FOR MCS
DEVELOPMENT DURING THAT TIME FRAME BUT HAVE QUESTIONS ON MODELS
ABILITY TO DETERMINE EXACT TRACKS OF THESE TYPES SYSTEMS SO FAR OUT
IN TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 205 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015

FEW TO SCATTERED CUMULUS AT AROUND 5K FEET AGL WILL BE SEEN
THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON...BEFORE DISSIPATING TOWARDS DUSK.
NORTHWEST WINDS AT 5 TO 10 KTS...WITH A FEW GUSTS TO AROUND 15
KTS...WILL ALSO LIGHTEN TOWARDS DUSK. CLOUDS WILL THEN BE ON THE
INCREASE LATER TONIGHT...AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH MONDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THIS WAVE AS THE HEART OF IT PASSES
JUST TO THE NORTH OF EASTERN KENTUCKY. WILL INCLUDE SOME VCSH BY
THE MID TO LATE MONDAY MORNING...WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR THUNDER
LIKELY HOLDING OFF UNTIL MAINLY AFTER 18Z MONDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS
OF AROUND 10 KTS...WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 20 KTS WILL ALSO ENGAGE
BY MID TO LATE MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GEOGERIAN
SHORT TERM...DJ
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN/RAY
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN



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