Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000
FXUS63 KJKL 251144
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
644 AM EST WED FEB 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 421 AM EST WED FEB 25 2015

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA AS OF 09Z FEATURE JUST SOME LOW
LEVEL CLOUD COVER TRACKING OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY FROM THE
NORTHWEST AS A WEAK TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH. THIS FEATURES WILL
LIKELY THROW A FEW FLURRIES ACROSS SOME LOCATIONS THIS MORNING
BEFORE HEADING OFF TO THE EAST. THE CLOUD COVER MOVING OVER THE
AREA HAS REALLY KEPT OUR LOW TEMPERATURES UP FOR MINS THIS
MORNING. AT THIS TIME...A DEVELOPING SYSTEM BEGINS TO TAKE SHAPE
OVER THE LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY AND WILL TRACK NORTHEAST TODAY.
SHORT TERM MODELS HAVE COME INTO DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THIS
FEATURE AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING AND MOVING EAST INTO THE LOWER TN VALLEYS AND
APPALACHIANS BY 00Z TONIGHT.

THE PREVIOUS RUNS HAVE TRENDED THIS FEATURE NORTH FAR ENOUGH TO
BRING A DECENT SHOT OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL TO SOUTHERN AND
SOUTHEASTERN EAST KENTUCKY. MODEL PROFILES DO SHOW A DECENT DRY
AIR LAYER TO OVERCOME BUT AS EXPERIENCED IN THE PREVIOUS EVENT IN
THE SOUTHERN STREAM...THE LAYER CAN BE OVERCOME QUITE EFFECTIVELY
WITH THE AMOUNT OF GULF MOISTURE THIS SYSTEM WILL BE TAPPING INTO.
AS WELL THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN COUNTIES THROUGH THIS EVENT WILL
HAVE A SATURATED LAYER IN THE -10 TO -20 CELSIUS ZONE FOR A GOOD
PORTION OF THIS EVENT. THE CLOUD COVER HANGING AROUND EARLIER IN
THE DAY THAT KEPT TEMPS WARM MAY HAVE AN EFFECT ON AMOUNTS FROM
THE EVENT TONIGHT BUT DIURNAL TRENDS AND NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW
SHOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW AT ONSET. THEREFORE...WITH THESE
FACTORS...HAVE GONE WITH 10 OR 12 TO 1 SNOW RATIOS IN THE SOUTH
AND THEN GOING HIGHER IN THE NORTHWEST TOWARDS THE COLDER AIR.
THIS WILL GIVE SNOW AMOUNTS IN THE 1 TO 2 INCH RANGE WITH UP TO 3
INCHES IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WENT WITH AN WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR THIS AND WILL PUT AN SPS OUT FOR THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES AS SOME OF THOSE AREAS MAY AT LEAST GET UP TO AN
INCH...ESPECIALLY WITH THE HIGHER RATIOS.

HEADING INTO THE DAY ON THURSDAY...THE SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO THE
EAST AS ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT MOVES IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM. THIS
PATTERN WILL ONCE AGAIN FAVOR AN UPSLOPE EVENT FOR SNOW SHOWERS
BUT NOT ANTICIPATING SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS FROM THIS AS
PROFILES SEEM TO BE TOO DRY BUT ALSO LACKING IN ANY SIGNIFICANT
INSTABILITY. KEPT AMOUNTS FOR THIS THROUGH THE DAY UNDER AN INCH
WITH HIGH RATIOS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 427 AM EST WED FEB 25 2015

THE SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW WILL BE
WELL NE TO START THE PERIOD. THE NORTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE WILL
KEEP CHANCE POPS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE FAR SE OVERNIGHT BEFORE
EXIT THE REGION MOVING INTO FRIDAY. UPPER LEVELS WILL GRADUALLY
TRANSITION TO ZONAL FLOW. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE PLAINS
WILL THEN GRADUALLY BUILD EAST ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE
VALLEYS. THIS WILL ONCE AGAIN USHER IN WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
ACROSS THE REGION WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND
TEENS THURS AND FRI NIGHT AND HIGHS FRI IN THE 20S. THIS HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE FAIRLY TRANSIENT WITH A BIT OF RETURN FLOW AS WE
MOVE INTO SATURDAY UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS TOWARD EVENING. HIGHS ON SATURDAY BOUNCE BACK INTO THE LOW
TO MID 30 NORTH AND AND MID TO UPPER 30S SOUTH. THIS HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC OVERNIGHT
SATURDAY. THEN EYES WILL TURN TO OVERRUNNING EVENT FOR THE FIRST
PART OF NEXT WEEK. INITIALLY THIS WILL BRING INCREASE IN CLOUDS
ON SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. INCREASE IN POPS WILL ALSO BEGIN
PARTICULARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THERE ARE REMAINS A FAIR AMOUNT OF
UNCERTAINTIES AROUND EXACT AMTS AND TRACK OF THIS OVERRUNNING
PORTION OF THE SYSTEM. THEN LATE IN THE PERIOD FOCUS SHIFTS TO THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE SW US STRENGTHENING AND EJECTING NE.
THIS WILL BRING SURFACE LOW ACROSS THE MIDWEST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
BY TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS DISAGREE ON
TIMING OF THIS SURFACE LOW WITH GFS MOST PROGRESSIVE AND RIGHT NOW
BLEND BRINGS BEST POPS FOR TUESDAY. EITHER WAY GIVEN SUBSTANTIAL
FETCH OF MOISTURE WITH PWATS AT OR ABOVE 1 INCH AND EVEN A
CONVECTIVE ELEMENT WITH THE FRONT/NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH...THIS
WILL POSE A FLOODING THREAT ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT STILL HAVE A
SUBSTANTIAL SNOW PACK. FUTURE SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING ISSUES AND FLOODING PRODUCTS
WILL POSSIBLY NEED TO BE ISSUED FOR THIS WARMUP AND PRECIP EVENT
AS WE MOVE INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 644 AM EST WED FEB 25 2015

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD. THERE IS A
WEAK FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING AND THERE MAY BE
A FEW LOCATIONS AFTER DAWN WHERE A 3 KFT CIG POPS UP BUT
OVERALL...CIGS WILL BE AROUND 4 KFT. THROUGH THE DAY...WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WITH CLOUD COVER INCREASING TOWARDS THE END
OF THE TAF PERIOD. SOME IFR CEILINGS WILL MOVE IN AFTER 00Z INTO
THE LOZ...SME...AND JKL...THEN LOCATIONS NORTH...AS THE NEXT
SYSTEM MOVES IN. SOME LIGHT SNOW WILL DEVELOP INTO THESE AREAS
AFTER 03Z TONIGHT. BY 06Z TONIGHT AND TILL THE END OF THE
PERIOD...BELOW FEILD MINS IN VIS AND CIGS WILL SET IN AS THE MORE
MODERATE SNOW MOVES IN.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
THURSDAY FOR KYZ079-080-083>088-110-113-115>118-120.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER


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