Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 300551

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson KY
151 AM EDT TUE AUG 30 2016

Issued at 137 AM EDT TUE AUG 30 2016

Clear skies persist across eastern KY, with patchy dense fog
in the deeper valleys. Some of this fog has made it up the
mountain at JKL, but otherwise current observations are reading 10
miles at most ob sites. So far everything seems to be on track
with the ongoing forecast, so no major updates were needed at this
time. Loaded in the latest observations for temps, dew points, and
winds to make sure the near term forecast was on track with
current conditions. All changes have been published and sent to

UPDATE Issued at 1032 PM EDT MON AUG 29 2016

Convection has ended and skies are clearing. Freshened up the
hourly temperatures and dew points according to the latest trends
in observations. Otherwise, the forecast remains on track.

UPDATE Issued at 900 PM EDT MON AUG 29 2016

Only a few storms remain across the far southeast. This will be
diminishing in the next hour, so for now have freshened up the
downward trend in POPs through this evening. Areas of dense fog
will likely be setting in across locations that saw heavier
rainfall into the overnight hours. Lows Tuesday morning will be
similar to early this morning, generally in the mid to upper 60s.
Updates have been sent.

UPDATE Issued at 512 PM EDT MON AUG 29 2016

Convection has increased in areal coverage across the middle of
the forecast area. As such, have increased pops to match up a bit
better with radar trends. Some of the storms have been producing
gusty winds and small hail, but overall, these are not as intense
as the ones from yesterday afternoon. Storm motions are also
a little more progressive, allowing for a lower threat of
localized flooding. Expect a gradual weakening trend to the
convection towards sunset. Updates have been sent.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 316 PM EDT MON AUG 29 2016

Isolated showers and storms will continue to form and move across
portions of eastern Kentucky this afternoon and evening. There is
just enough energy and moisture around for this convection to feed
off of. This activity is generally drifting from northeast to
southwest across the area. These showers and storms will likely
be short lived and weak and should be gone by the time the sun
begins to set. Overnight, we can expect to see mostly clear skies,
light winds, and areas of valley fog. Patchy dense fog may form
near bodies of water and in our deeper and more sheltered valleys.
A ridge of high pressure will finally take firm control of area
weather tomorrow, bringing warm and dry conditions to the eastern
Kentucky. Temperatures the next two nights should be slightly
cooler, with readings in the mid to upper 60s. Tomorrows highs
will still be quite warm, upper 80s and lower 90s, but the
humidity should be quite a bit lower, with max values in the 40s
and 50s during the afternoon, so the air should feel a bit more
pleasant tomorrow than it has over the past week or so.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 347 PM EDT MON AUG 29 2016

The long term period will offer a reprieve from the heat and
humidity that has plagued the area over the past few weeks. At
upper levels, a long wave trough in place over Kentucky (through
the work week) will shift east, being replaced with ridging for
Labor Day Weekend. At the surface, a weakening cold front will
drop through the region late Wednesday night into Thursday. This
late timing of the frontal passage along with limited instability
should keep precipitation to a minimum with only a slight chance
for showers or storms. A cooler and much drier air mass will then
push into the area as high pressure builds across the Great Lakes
Thursday afternoon. As a result, temperatures will fall from the
upper 80s on Wednesday into the upper 70s and low 80s behind the
front beginning Thursday and lasting through the first half of the
weekend. Humidity levels will also be lower and more comfortable.
Temperatures and humidity start moderating back towards summer-
time levels Sunday as the surface high shifts to our east and
southerly flow returns. Labor Day looks to be warm and muggy with
dew points in the mid 60s and temperatures in the upper 80s. No
precipitation is expected beyond Thursday.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)

Skies have cleared across eastern KY, and should remain clear
through the morning before some few/sct afternoon CU develops
around 4k ft. Given the rains of yesterday, and the ongoing
clear/calm conditions, patchy dense fog has formed across many of
the valley locations in eastern KY. While most of the TAF sites
should remain fog free, KJKL did receive a good dowsing of rain
yesterday and therefore may continue to see off and on fog
throughout the night. As such, LIFR VIS will be possible at times
into the morning, with off and on CIGs below airport mins. Can`t
also rule out some brief lowering of VIS and CIGS at other
airports near daybreak as fog lifts before dissipating. Winds will
remain light and variable throughout the period...generally 5
knots or less.


.JKL Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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