Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 010558
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
158 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 158 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

UPDATED TO REMOVE THE LAST OF THE PRECIPITATION AS EVERYTHING HAS
ENDED ACROSS THE NORTH. GOING TO SICK WITH THE PATCHY FOG WORDING
GIVEN THE GRADIENT WINDS REMAINING A BIT ELEVATED OVERNIGHT AND SOME
LINGERING CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS. OVERALL FORECAST IS
ON TRACK WITH ONLY MINOR CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1038 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

HEAVIEST RAIN SHIFTED NORTH OF THE ORIGINAL FLASH FLOOD WATCH
AREA...AND HAVE DROPPED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH. HOWEVER A FLASH FLOOD
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM...IS IN EFFECT FOR AREAS
JUST NORTH OF THE ORIGINAL WATCH. IFLOWS GAGES IN POWELL COUNTY
INDICATE 0.68 INCHES IN 30 MINUTES AT CLAY CITY WITH 1.88 INCHES IN
THE LAST 3 HOURS. STANTON HAD 0.76 INCHES IN 30 MINUTES AND 1 INCH IN
1 HOUR. QPE SHOWS 3 HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE HAS BEEN EXCEEDED IN
PARTS OF POWELL COUNTY...AND SOME OF THE HEAVIEST RAIN HAS OCCURRED
IN IDENTIFIED FLASH FLOOD PRONE AREAS. ONCE THE CURRENT CLUSTER OF
HEAVY RAIN MOVES NORTHEAST AND DIMINISHES...THE REMAINDER OF THE
NIGHT SHOULD BE MORE QUIET. HAVE UPDATED FORECAST FOR LATEST TRENDS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 834 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

UPDATED NDFD AND ASSOCIATED PRODUCTS BASED ON LATEST OBSERVATIONAL
TRENDS. HEAVIEST SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE SHIFTED JUST NORTH OF
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AREA. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE SW PART OF THE FORECAST AREA ARE HEADED TOWARDS THE WATCH
AREA...BUT CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THIS ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH
AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT
OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 2 HOURS...BUT WILL LIKELY BE ABLE TO CANCEL THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH EARLY. IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE WILL LIKELY BE ABLE TO
CANCEL THE WATCH AROUND 10 PM EDT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 628 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

TRAINING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING FROM SW TO NE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PART OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING...WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. WITH PWS IN
EXCESS OF 2 INCHES AND SOME SPOTS ALREADY RECEIVING IN EXCESS OF ONE
INCH OVER THE PAST 2 TO 3 HOURS HAVE EXPANDED AND EXTENDED THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH FOR THE CENTRAL PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT FOR A SWATH OF COUNTIES
FROM JACKSON TO MARTIN AND PIKE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

NONE OF THE MODELS ARE REALLY HANDLING THIS AFTERNOONS SHOWER AND
STORM ACTIVITY VERY WELL. AS IT STANDS...THE NAM12 IS CLOSEST BUT
STILL IS NOT DOING A VERY GOOD JOB. AS FOR TONIGHT THROUGH THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT...A BLEND OF THE VARIOUS SHORT TERM MODELS WAS USED DUE
TO UNCERTAINTY...WITH SOME MASSAGING DONE TO MAKE THE RESULTING
FORECAST GRIDS LOOK REASONABLE. A WEAK ATMOSPHERIC WAVE WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND EVENTUALLY ACROSS KENTUCKY
AND THEN THE OHIO VALLEY THIS EVENING. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE
BEGINNING TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE WAVE MOVES
THROUGH. OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WE CAN EXPECT TO SEE SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS...ALL WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL. ONCE THE SUN BEGINS TO SET...THE LOSS OF
HEATING...AND THE MOVEMENT OF THE WAVE OUT OF THE AREA INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY AND POINTS NORTH...SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL QUICKLY DECREASE IN
COVERAGE. THE OVERNIGHT HOURS MAY FEATURE SOME ISOLATED
ACTIVITY...BUT BY SUN RISE ON MONDAY THE AREA SHOULD BE FREE OF RAIN.
AFTER A LULL DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY AND AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT...A
FAIRLY WELL DEFINED COLD FRONT WILL FINALLY APPROACH THE AREA FROM
THE NORTHWEST...AS A LARGE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT PUSHES OFF TO
THE EAST OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SHOWERS AND STORMS FIRE ALONG
THIS FRONT AS IT MOVES ACROSS INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY. BY 12Z ON
TUESDAY WE SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS BEGIN MOVING INTO OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES. A FLOOD WATCH
IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING...AND WE WILL BE LEAVING THIS IN
PLACE SINCE IT IS BEGINNING TO RAIN A BIT MORE ACROSS THE AREA. THE
EVENING SHIFT WILL DO AS THEY SEE FIT WITH THE FLOOD WATCH.
TEMPERATURES DURING THE SHORT TERM WILL LIKELY BE ABOVE NORMAL DUE
TO THE PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MOISTURE FEED OFF THE GULF OF
MEXICO. TOMORROWS HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER
80S...WITH LOWS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

THE MODELS START OUT IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS
THE US WITH AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL US. AT THE
SURFACE...THE BERMUDA HIGH IS RETREATING TO THE EAST AS THE UPPER
TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. A SURFACE LOW WILL BE LOCATED OVER
THE GREAT LAKES WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
WISCONSIN AND THEN CURVING ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. WARM MOIST
AIR IS IN PLACE OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY AND WILL RESULT IN THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME AIR MASS THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY
MOSTLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE
MOVING TO THE EAST AND IT WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA ON
TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT MOVE TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY.
ON WEDNESDAY MORNING THE UPPER FLOW WILL BE VERY ZONAL ACROSS THE US
WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE WHICH WILL STAY IN PLACE
ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR WARM MOIST FLOW WITH
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AIR MASS THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH FRIDAY. BY
SATURDAY MORNING A DEVELOPING SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL BE PUSHING A
COLD FRONT INTO THE BLUEGRASS. THIS WILL INCREASE THE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE FOR THE WEEKEND. BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD...THE TIMING OF THE SHORT WAVES BEGIN TO DIFFER AND
CONFIDENCE STARTS TO PLUMMET. PREFER THE SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION TO
THE GFS. FOR TEMPERATURES...STAYED CLOSE TO THE MODEL BLEND AS THE
MODELS WERE IN BETTER THAN AVERAGE AGREEMENT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 158 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN PORTION
OF THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT. THESE SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR BY MID
MORNING ON MONDAY. WHILE SOME PATCHY VALLEY FOG IS ANTICIPATED
TONIGHT...SOME WEAK SOUTHERLY GRADIENT WINDS SHOULD KEEP THE FOG OUT
OF THE TAF SITES. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING.
A WEAK DISTURBANCE COULD TRIGGER A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT COVERAGE SHOULD NOT BE ENOUGH TO
INCLUDE THESE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KAS
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...JJ
AVIATION...KAS






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