Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 021535
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1135 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1135 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FEATURE A STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. UPSTREAM IN TN...A WAVE IS
TRACKING NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION. WITH THIS...ALREADY THIS
MORNING SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED AND ARE
MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. EVEN INSTABILITY STRONG
ENOUGH TO DEVELOP A STRONG STORM OR TWO. THUS HAVE UPDATED TO
BRING POPS INTO THE AREA IN EARNEST AND UPDATED THE FLOOD WATCH.
AS INSTABILITY INCREASES AND DEW POINTS STILL AROUND 60...THE
CHANCE OF STRONG STORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE PRESENT IN THE
AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING. NEW GRIDS HAVE BEEN
SENT AND A NEW ZFP HAS BEEN SENT OUT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 655 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

DEWPOINTS HAVE COME UP SOME IN THE PAST FEW HOURS AND WITH THIS
INCREASE NOW WE ARE STARTING TO SEE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOP
ACROSS THE AREA. ENVIRONMENT CONTINUES TO BE VERY MOIST. ALSO
NOTING AN UPTICK IN SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS UPSTREAM OVER ARKANSAS
AND MISSISSIPPI. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEAST
INTO KENTUCKY BY MIDDAY OR EARLY AFTERNOON. HI-RES MODELS SEEM TO
BE HANDLING THE CURRENT ACTIVITY VERY POORLY...SO OUTSIDE OF
CURRENT TRENDS...NOT MUCH TO KEY OFF OF AT THE MOMENT.
CLEARLY...THE MOIST ENVIRONMENT COMBINED WITH THE SHOWERS/STORMS
MOVING IN WILL GIVE WAY TO SOME DECENT RAINFALL POTENTIAL INTO
THIS AFTERNOON. 1 HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE HAS COME UP JUST A
TOUCH TO AROUND 1 INCH FOR MUCH OF SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY...WITH THE 3
HOUR ALSO COMING UP A TOUCH TO AROUND 1.50 INCHES. CLEARLY WITH
ANY CONVECTION...THESE AMOUNTS WILL NOT BE HARD TO OBTAIN...SO
FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS VERY VIABLE. NOT MANY CHANGES THIS
MORNING...EXCEPT TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER AND BRING IN SOME SMALL
POPS A BIT EARLIER TO ACCOUNT FOR SHOWERS DEVELOPING PRESENTLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

FINALLY A LULL IN THE ACTION EARLY THIS MORNING AS MOST OF THE
CONVECTION HAS SHIFTED OFF TO THE NORTH. HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT
REMAINS JUST OFF TO OUR WEST ACROSS CENTRAL KENTUCKY THIS
MORNING...WITH PLENTY OF SURFACE MOISTURE REMAINING ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SWING NORTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY THIS AFTERNOON AND INTERACT WITH THE APPROACHING FROM
FROM THE WEST TO GENERATE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS.
UNFORTUNATELY...THIS IS NOT GOOD NEWS AS FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE
REMAINS VERY LOW. THE ONE HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS 0.75-1.00
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...WHILE THE 3 HOUR FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS
BETWEEN 1.00 AND 1.50. WITH THE GFS RUN SHOWING OVER 1.50 INCHES
OF RAIN THIS AFTERNOON...THIS IS VERY CONCERNING. SO MUCH
SO...THAT WE HAVE ISSUED A NEW FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL OF
SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY FROM LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH TONIGHT. PW
VALUES ARE NOT QUITE AS HIGH AS THE PAST 24 HOURS...BUT STILL ON
THE HIGH SIDE...SUPPORTING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. LATEST 00Z ARW AND
NMM BOTH HAVE THE SAME CORRIDOR THAT GOT HIT HARD LAST NIGHT
GETTING HIT AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON...SO THIS CERTAINLY BEARS
WATCHING FOR THOSE IN EASTERN KENTUCKY. WITH THE FRONT VIRTUALLY
STALLED...THE SETUP FOR TRAINING STORMS IS CERTAINLY THERE...WHICH
COULD AID IN THE FLASH FLOOD CONCERN. WHILE MANY MODELS HAVE
ANOTHER LULL TONIGHT...THE NAM...WITH SOME WEAK SUPPORT FROM THE
HI-RES SHORT TERM MODELS SUPPORT SOME SHOWER/STORM ACTIVITY
LINGERING IN SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. FOR
THIS REASON...KEPT THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH GOING THROUGH 15Z
TUESDAY. ONE LAST THING TO CONSIDER TODAY IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A
FEW STRONG STORMS AS MLCAPES APPROACH 1000J/KG IN THE SOUTHEAST
WITH MODEST SHEAR IN PLACE. THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME HAIL AND
STRONG WINDS FROM A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS. WILL CONTINUE TO
HIGHLIGHT THE FLOODING/STORM THREAT IN THE HWO AND FLASH FLOOD
WATCH.

BY TUESDAY...WE ARE KIND OF BETWEEN THE DEPARTING SYSTEM AND ONE
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH. MODELS ARE HINTING AT A BIT MORE
INSTABILITY TODAY...AND WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN ON TUESDAY AS THE WAVE DIPS IN FROM
THE NORTH. FORTUNATELY...WHATEVER HAPPENS ON TUESDAY SHOULD NOT BE
AS WIDESPREAD AND HOPEFULLY CAN AVOID THE AREAS IMPACTED BY THE
RECENT FLOODING. HIGHS ON TUESDAY SHOULD TAKE A STEP BACK AS
COOLER AIR ADVECTS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM/COLD FRONT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 614 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

THE PERIOD WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED BY A BURST OF VERY COOL AIR EARLY
ON...AS A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DROPS SOUTHWARD
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AHEAD OF THE MAIN
SYSTEM COULD PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS ON TUESDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN
EVENT ARRIVES ON WEDNESDAY AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH
UNDERNEATH THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH AXIS. DESPITE MEAGER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...MODELS ARE SUGGESTING SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR...DUE TO COLD AIR ALOFT AND THE STRENGTH
OF THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. IF SHOWERS LINGER INTO THURSDAY AS THE
MODELS SUGGEST...THERE COULD EVEN BE SOME SNOW AT THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS NEAR THE VA BORDER.

THE UPPER LOW SHOULD BE PULLING AWAY TO THE EAST BY FRIDAY...AND
RIDGING/HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST AT ALL LEVELS.
THIS WILL BRING DRIER WEATHER AND A WARMING TREND LASTING INTO THE
WEEKEND. BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND...THE HIGH/RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO
GET SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NEW ENGLAND. THIS WOULD SEND
A COLD FRONT SOUTH TO THE OHIO VALLEY. THE PREVIOUS 12Z RUN OF
THE ECMWF GENERATED LIGHT PRECIP ALONG THE FRONT IN OUR
AREA SUNDAY...WHILE THE LATEST 00Z BACKED OFF. DID ALLOW A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST AT THIS POINT. HOWEVER...IF
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE DRY...THIS COULD END UP REMOVED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 655 AM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

A MIX OF MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE SEEN OVER THIS AREA THIS
MORNING BEFORE BECOMING MAINLY VFR BY MIDDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
INTERACT WITH A SYSTEM MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH TO BRING
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND COULD
BRING SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS/VISBYS. AS THE SYSTEM/FRONT
DEPART TONIGHT...LOW CLOUDS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA
WITH MVFR BECOMING DOMINANT OVERNIGHT. SOME IFR CIGS MAY BE
POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AS CIGS CONTINUE TO LOWER OVERNIGHT.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR KYZ080-084>088-104-
106>120.

&&

$$

UPDATE...SHALLENBERGER
SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...KAS



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