000
FXUS63 KJKL 290556
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
156 AM EDT Thu Sep 29 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 155 AM EDT THU SEP 29 2016

Quick update to refresh the hourly grids per recent trends. Sent
updates to NDFD and web servers.

UPDATE Issued at 1038 PM EDT WED SEP 28 2016

The cold front that dropped across the region is now well south
across the TN Valley and Southwest VA this hour based on radar.
The lagging line of showers continues to weaken as it propagates
slowly to the east. All the short term models would suggest this
is going to be the trend and leaned toward the consshort and
other short term models for the POP grids. Hourly temps have also
been difficult to pin down as the front has caused sharp drop
offs. Overall more manual adjustments were required to deal with
this.

UPDATE Issued at 807 PM EDT WED SEP 28 2016

A cold front has dropped south across eastern KY this hour and
resides across the far SE portions of the state. Behind the front
a line of showers resides along the lagging mid level front at
around the 700mb level. However with loss of daytime heating these
showers continue to decrease in intensity. That said the CAM
model guidance continues to show this same idea through the late
evening hours. After this we will be left with only some more
isolated shower activity through the night. Updated grids to
reflect the current obs and trends.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 455 PM EDT WED SEP 28 2016

A cold front was located over the far NW portion of the JKL
forecast area at mid afternoon, and was moving SE. Showers were
occurring near and behind the front, with thunderstorms further
northwest over IN where colder air aloft was located near an upper
low center. The front will continue progressing SE tonight,
bringing showers with it. However, the showers should be on a
decline this evening as instability wanes. Have used categorical
POP in our far NE, trimmed down to chance POP late in our SE.
Decided not to continue thunder potential tonight, with very
little thunder occurring any longer in the band of precip
currently moving in, and instability weakening by late tonight as
colder air aloft arrives after surface temps have cooled down.
However, the cold pool aloft will be centered over KY on Thursday,
and daytime heating will lead to instability and a potential for
thunder. Instability wanes again on Thursday night, and models
agree on a dry slot of sorts wrapping around the upper low, with
the result being most precip drying up during the night.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 358 PM EDT WED SEP 28 2016

Very blocky pattern will continue into the upcoming weekend with
the upper level low continuing to spin over the Ohio river
valley. Looks like eastern Kentucky will be located more or less
in a semi-dry slot on Friday with showers exiting to our
northeast and the main with the main low center retrograding back
to the west into southern Illinois. This may keep most of the area
dry on Thursday. A few showers may approach the I-75 corridor
during the afternoon, but confidence is fairly low on this and
thus, chance of rain will remain low. After another lull Friday
night, the upper level low will make a slow track northward and
send a vort max across central Kentucky. This may push a better
chance for showers into central/northern Kentucky Saturday
afternoon/evening. Again shower chances will likely stay across
our western and northern zones. Upper level low will then slowly
drift east across the great lakes and into New England over the
weekend and into early next week with rain chances staying off to
our north. This will spell a dry end to the weekend and dry
conditions through the first half of next week. Temperatures will
stay cool through the weekend with warmer weather on tap as we
head through next week. Highs may climb back to around 80 or
better by early to middle portion of next week as heights start to
build over the area once again.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
ISSUED AT 155 AM EDT THU SEP 29 2016

A scattered line of showers continues to push eastward through
far eastern Kentucky this morning. Behind this line, CIGS have
generally shown a downward trend and models have picked up on
this. So have decided to take CIGS/VIS down to IFR/LIFR during
the early morning period and then slowly recover them during the
morning and afternoon hours. Confidence isn`t particularly high
regarding the CIGS or the dense fog potential so sticking close to
LAV guidance at this time. VCSH is possible this afternoon as the
upper level system resides right over top of the region. Depending
on the amount of low level moisture tonight and afternoon shower
activity, fog will be possible again towards the end of the TAF
period. Winds will be light and variable throughout the period.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JVM
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...JVM