Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 241749
AFDJKL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson KY
149 PM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 149 PM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016

Have seen a meager cumulus field develop across portions of the
Big Sandy region and adjacent Appalachians. Nonetheless, plenty of
insolation still looking to send temperatures into the low-mid 80s
by rush hour.

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 302 AM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016

The weather of eastern Kentucky will dominated by a ridge of high
pressure today and tonight. This weather system will bring well
above normal temperatures, mostly clear skies, light winds, and
dry conditions to the area through late tonight. The warm weather
will continue on Wednesday. Low and middle level cloud cover will
spread across the region late tonight and tomorrow, as an area of
low pressure moves out of the south central plains and toward the
western Great Lakes region. Warm front associated with this system
will provide a focus for shower and thunderstorm formation from
around dawn tomorrow and through the day on Wednesday. At this
time it appears that lift and moisture in the vicinity of this
boundary will be limited, so we can expect only isolated to
scattered showers and storms in eastern Kentucky during the day on
Wednesday.

Temperatures during the period will be well above normal, with
highs topping out the 80s both today and Wednesday. Tonights lows
will also be quite mild, with minimum readings in the mid to upper
50s expected for most locations.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 358 AM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016

Models are in good agreement for the overall pattern heading into
the weekend. A summertime regime will be in place for the local
area, with mid/upper level ridging over the southeast ConUS, and the
main westerlies to our north and west. We will be close enough to
the periphery of the ridge that convective precip can not be ruled
out. However, it is more probable further north and west. Have used
slight chance pops each period.

The ECMWF and GFS show some differences starting late in the
weekend. Each has a tropical or subtropical wave which has
progressed northwestward to the carolinas, but the GFS then takes
it slowly westward, while the ECMWF takes it northward. The
result is deep moisture finding its way over our area in the GFS,
while the ECMWF keeps the deep moisture to our east. Members of
the GFS ensemble also show varying possibilities. Considering the
weak features in play and the long time range, confidence in a
model solution is very low, and have used a continuation of slight
chance pops through the end of the period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 149 PM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016

Vfr conditions remain in the offing through the period. Any
leftover afternoon cumulus will dissipate this evening as high-mid
clouds begin to move in from the west overnight. Will see
scattered to broken decks lower to around 4-5k feet by Wednesday
morning, but not currently expecting any degradation to vfr
criteria. Increasing cloud cover should mitigate much in the way
of fog potential, but could still very well see some patchy fog
across a few of the deeper valleys nearer the Virginia state line
where surface ridging will reside a tad longer. Winds will remain
light at below 10 knots out of the south to southwest.

&&

.JKL Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GUSEMAN
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...GUSEMAN



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