Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 181855
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
255 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT THE WIDESPREAD RAIN LAST NIGHT
INTO THIS MORNING HAS MOVED INTO WV...TAKING THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND
BETTER LIFT WITH IT. A WEST EAST ORIENTED QUASI STATIONARY FRONT
REMAINS ACROSS KENTUCKY...AND SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUE TO
MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA. ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
EVIDENT ON SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY WAS MOVING EAST ALONG THE TN MS
BORDER. THIS FEATURE...ALONG WITH THE BOUNDARY ACROSS KY WILL
NECESSITATE CONTINUING WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER THE
BEST RAIN AND THUNDER CHANCES SHOULD BE SOUTH OF KY TONIGHT.

WITH VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND SOME BREAKS EXPECTED IN THE CLOUDS
THIS EVENING...FOG AND LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE
NIGHT AND LINGER INTO THE MORNING ON TUESDAY. WILL INCLUDE FOG IN THE
FORECAST FOR TONIGHT. ON TUESDAY THE NEXT SHORT WAVE IN THIS VERY
ACTIVE PATTERN WILL BE PUSHING INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. AT
THE SURFACE A VERY MOIST AND WARM AIR MASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
ACROSS EASTERN KY ON TUESDAY...WHILE A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHEAST ACROSS IL
AND INDIANA. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT TUESDAY AFTERNOON. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP TO OUR NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY WILL MOVE INTO
OUR AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH THIS THOUGHT IN MIND WILL INTRODUCE
LIKELY PROBABILITIES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTHERN
PART OF OUR FORECAST AREA TUESDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

MODELS CONTINUE TO DISPLAY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE EXTENDED.
UPPER/MID LEVEL GREAT LAKES LOW WILL MAKE A BEE LINE TO THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST BY FRIDAY. MEANWHILE BURGEONING RIDGE TO OUR WEST
WILL EXERT ITS INFLUENCE FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/MISSISSIPPI RIVER
DELTA NORTHWARD INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. GREAT LAKES LOW WILL PASS TO
OUR NORTHEAST DURING ITS MARCH TO THE COAST AND DRAG A SURFACE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE OHIO VALLEY REGION.
SHARPENING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD OVER OUR
AREA TOWARDS THE END OF THE EXTENDED AS ENERGY ROUNDS ITS TOP ACROSS
THE NORTHERN TIER. DESPITE THE BUILDING RIDGE ALOFT...THE BY THEN
QUASI-STATIONARY SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN IN OUR VICINITY AS
IT BECOMES ORIENTED PARALLEL TO THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN. THUS
WITH LITTLE TO NO FORCING AT THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS...THIS
BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN CLOSE ENOUGH TO OUR AREA TO SERVE AS A FOCUS
FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH THE LATTER
HALF OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY BE AUGMENTED BY ONE OR TWO ORGANIZED
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES DROPPING DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON THE EAST
SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE.

FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...WE WILL SEE THE RETURN OF TRUE SUMMER LIKE
WEATHER AS RIDGING TO OUR SOUTHWEST WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SEND
TEMPERATURES INTO AND ABOVE SEASONABLE NORMS DESPITE THE INCREASED
HUMIDITY. THIS WILL ALSO HELP TO ENHANCE THE DIURNALLY DRIVEN
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA RESULTING IN THE BEST CHANCES OF STORMS
EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE THREAT OF RAIN DECREASES BY NEXT
WEEKEND AS THE UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES AND SHIFTS EASTWARD A BIT...BUT
THE POTENTIAL CAN NOT BE TOTALLY REMOVED. IN ADDITION...SHOULD THE
RIDGE EXERT A STRONGER INFLUENCE BY SHIFTING JUST A BIT MORE EAST WE
MAY BE IN FOR EVEN HOTTER WEATHER BY NEXT WEEKEND. WITH THE 0Z ECMWF
ADVERTISING H850 TEMPS UP AROUND 22C TO 24C...THE POSSIBLY EXISTS
THAT WE MIGHT SEE SOME OF OUR HOTTEST WEATHER OF THE SUMMER THUS
FAR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 138 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

A WIDE VARIETY OF CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH BROUGHT WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE AREA LAST NIGHT
HAS MOVED INTO WV. HOWEVER AN EAST WEST STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS
ACROSS KY. WELL TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. HOWEVER NEAR THE
FRONT LIFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED. POOREST CONDITIONS
THIS AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED AT THE JKL AND SJS TAF SITES WITH BETTER
CONDITIONS AT LOZ AND SME. LOW CLOUD AND FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
TONIGHT AND LINGER INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITH WIDESPREAD IFR TO LIFR
CONDITIONS.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SBH
LONG TERM...RAY
AVIATION...SBH






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