Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 311745
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
145 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1242 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

QUICK UPDATE TO FRESHEN UP THE T/TD GRIDS. NO OTHER CHANGES WERE
NEEDED. SENT UPDATED GRIDS TO NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 942 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

EARLY MORNING FOG IS STILL LINGERING IN A COUPLE LOCATIONS AS OF
940AM BUT FOR THE MOST PART HAS BURNED OFF. THIS FOG/CLOUD COVER
HAS KEPT SOME TEMPS DOWN...ESPECIALLY IN THE FAR EASTERN COUNTIES
SO HAVE ADJUSTED TEMPS ACCORDINGLY. OTHERWISE...FORECAST REMAINS
ON TRACK TODAY. SENT UPDATED GRIDS TO NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 757 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

UPDATED THE FORECAST THIS MORNING TO INPUT PATCHY DENSE FOG ACROSS
THE AREA THIS MORNING. CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK
CIRCULATION MOVING ALONG THE APPALACHIAN RANGE HAS DRIFTED OFF TO
THE NORTHEAST. WILL KEEP THE FOG IN THE FORECAST THROUGH 14Z THIS
MORNING. ADJUSTED THE CLOUD COVER FOR THIS AS WELL. A NEW ZFP HAS
BEEN SENT OUT FOR THIS UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FEATURE A WEAK CIRCULATION AT
THIS HOUR TRACKING NORTHERLY ALONG THE PEAKS OF THE APPALACHIAN
RANGE. THIS CENTER ALONG WITH CLOUD COVER WILL SLOWLY TRACK NORTH
AND EAST AS EAST KENTUCKY LOOKS TO CLEAR OUT A BIT TOWARDS DAWN.
THIS HAS ALREADY ALLOWED FOR SOME SIGNIFICANT FOG DEVELOPMENT AS
ALREADY NOTICED WITH SOME OBSERVATIONS TO THE WEST AND INTO
CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

HEADING INTO THE DAY...WITH THE BARELY NOTICEABLE BOUNDARY STILL
TO THE NORTHWEST AND THE WEAK UPPER LOW OVER THE APPALACHIANS
TRACKING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE AREA...A GOOD DEAL OF LIFT WILL BE
ABSENT TODAY. THIS...WHILE THE REGION IS STILL UNDER A
SIGNIFICANT MID LEVEL RIDGE AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL FLOW. THIS IN
MIND...STEERING FLOW IS QUITE LACKING...THE IMPACT FROM WHAT IS
LEFT OF ERIKA SEEMS TO STILL BE STUCK OVER FL AND DRIFTING
NORTHEAST POSSIBLY TO BE KICKED NORTHEAST ALONG WITH THE REST OF
THE UNSETTLED WEATHER UP THE EAST COAST. HI RES MODELS...ESPECIALLY
THE OPERATION NAM AND GFS HAVE HAD A TOUGH TIME PIN POINTING THIS
FEATURES AND WHERE THEY WILL DRIFT IN THIS WEAK FLOW.

THAT SAID...AND ESPECIALLY WITH THE CAP THE MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE
INDICATING...HAVE GONE WITH ONLY ISOLATED PRECIP TODAY SINCE THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS WILL PROBABLY SEE A STORM OR TWO POP UP.
WEST OF THIS LOCATION WILL DIFFICULT ESPECIALLY WITH THE
BOUNDARY...OR WHATS LEFT OF IT...STILL TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST.
NEEDLESS TO SAY...FOR THIS EVENING...THE LOSS OF HEATING FOR THE
DAY WILL BRING AN END TO SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER EAST
KENTUCKY. IN FACT...OVERNIGHT THE MID LEVEL RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER
THE GREAT LAKES REGION AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPS JUST EAST
OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY AND EXTENDS INTO THE TN VALLEY. THIS
DEVELOPMENT...IF STILL ON TRACK WILL LEAD TO CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT
AND MORE IMPACTFUL FOG DEVELOPMENT AS WELL AS A DRY FORECAST INTO
TUESDAY. HENCE...HAVE GONE FOR WARMER TEMPS FOR TUESDAY AND A DRY
FORECAST FOR NOW. IN THIS PATTERN...MODEL PERFORMANCE HAS BEEN A
BIT MORE TO BE DESIRED.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AN AMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL
PATTERN TO CONTROL ACROSS THE CONUS THROUGH THE PERIOD. TROUGHING
WILL BE THE RULE IN THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS...WHILE RIDGING
WILL DOMINATE IN THE EAST. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES WITH THE
PROGRESSION OF THE TROUGH TOWARDS THE WEEKEND...WITH THE GFS MORE
PROGRESSIVE...WHILE THE ECMWF REMAINS MORE AMPLIFIED AND SLOWER.
WILL CONTINUE TO USE A BLENDED APPROACH.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH A FEW SHOTS OF ISOLATED
CONVECTION AT TIMES...MAINLY DURING THE DIURNALLY FAVORED PERIODS.
HIGHS WILL AVERAGE FROM THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90...WITH LOWS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 145 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

SCATTERED CU AROUND 4-5KT FEET HAS DEVELOPED AREA-WIDE THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A FEW SHOWERS POPPING UP ON RADAR. THESE SHOWERS
SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED IN NATURE SO HAVE KEPT THEM OUT OF THE TAF
SITES WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING. CLOUDS
AND ANY REMAINING SHOWERS SHOULD DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET. WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA TONIGHT...FOG DEVELOPMENT WILL BE
EXTENSIVE TOWARDS DAWN SO HAVE PUT IN IFR AND BELOW CONDITIONS AT
THE TAF SITES BETWEEN 8Z AND 13Z. FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 14Z
ALLOWING FOR A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JVM
SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...JVM



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