000
FXUS63 KJKL 180203 AAB
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1003 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1003 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STILL ONGOING. SOME STORMS ARE MODERATE
INTENSITY WITH FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS. MAIN CONCERN IS
HEAVY RAINFALL DUE TO THE SLOW MOVEMENT. REPORTS OF RAINFALL RATES OF
OVER 2 INCHES PER HOUR. THUS FAR...NO REPORTS OF FLOODING. HAVE
ISSUED SEVERAL URBAN AND SMALL STREAM ADVISORIES FOR THE HEAVY RAIN.
ZONES AND GRIDS UPDATED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 815 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
COMMONWEALTH. STORM INTENSITY HAS DIMINISHED WITH THE SETTING SUN.
STORM MTION IS NEARLY NON EXISTANT AND SO THE RAINFALL IS VERY HEAVY
WHERE THE STORMS SET. HAVE ISSUED A COUPLE URBAN AND SMALL STREAM
ADVISORIES FOR VERY LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN. EXPECT THE SHOWERS TO
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT BUT AT A MUCH LOWER INTENSITY.
UPDATED GRIDS WITH LATEST DATA BUT ZONES STILL APPEAR ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 304 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013

THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOULD BE MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY WITH POP UP
THUNDERSTORMS FORMING. TODAY IS ACTUALLY A BIT MORE UNSTABLE THAN
YESTERDAY AND THERE IS SOME DRY AIR ALOFT. AS SUCH...THERE IS A
BETTER CHANCE TO SEE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OR TWO THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING WITH STRONG WINDS BEING THE BIGGEST THREAT. THE HRR
CONTINUES TO SHOW THE CONVECTION STARTING TO BLOSSOM SOON ACROSS THE
AREA. THE FORECAST IS ASSUMING THAT THERE WILL BE MORE CONVECTION
DEVELOPING IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. THE STORMS ARE MORE SLOW
MOVING THIS EVENING SO THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SOME LOCALIZED
FLOODING...WITH SOME DITCHES AND LOW WATER CROSSINGS RUNNING FULL.
FOR TEMPERATURES WENT FOR A MODEL BLEND EXCEPT FOR TOMORROW WHICH IS
A BIT WARMER THAN THE BLEND.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013

THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE EXTENDED CONTINUES TO BE QUITE
UNCERTAIN. THE VARIOUS FORECAST MODELS HAVE YET TO CONVERGE ON ANY
ONE SOLUTION...WITH THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH PRODUCING ISOLATED RAIN
SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING DIFFERENT PERIODS FROM THURSDAY ONWARD.
THE MOS GUIDANCE WAS ALSO FALLING IN LINE WITH THIS TYPE OF NEBULOUS
PATTERN. THAT BEING SAID...WITH WARM MOIST CONDITIONS EXPECTED...AND
WITH WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCES PASSING SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
AREA...DECIDED TO KEEP IN PERIODS OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS
BASED ON THE SPARSE EVIDENCE AVAILABLE. OVERALL IT SHOULD BE WARM
AND MOSTLY DRY PERIOD...BUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM COULD POP UP
AT ANYTIME DURING THE DAYTIME PERIODS OF THE EXTENDED...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD WILL BE RUNNING AT OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN
THE 80S EACH DAY AND LOWS EACH NIGHT IN THE 60S. VALLEY FOG WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE EACH NIGHT DURING THE EXTENDED...WITH THE MORE
WIDESPREAD AND DENSER FOG CONFINED TO THE RIVER VALLEYS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 742 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013

FORECAST SOUNDINGS LOOK SUPPORTIVE FOR CONTINUED CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT THROUGHOUT THE EVENING AND EVEN OVERNIGHT. THERE SHOULD
BE SOME FOG/MIST FORMING IN THE MORNING...ESPECIALLY WHERE THE
SHOWERS HAVE PASSED.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DUSTY
SHORT TERM...JJ
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...DUSTY