Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 231738
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
138 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 134 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

CURRENT SATELLITE IS SHOWING SCT TO BKN HIGH CLOUDS MOVING
EASTWARD ACROSS KY...BEGINNING TO MAKE THEIR WAY INTO OUR CWA.
WENT AHEAD AND UPDATED SKY GRIDS THROUGH THE SHORT
TERM...INCLUDING 40 TO 50 PERCENT SKY COVER THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA. EXPECT
THESE CLOUDS TO REMAIN OVER THE 1000FT RANGE. OTHERWISE...FORECAST
SEEMS TO BE WELL ON TARGET. HAVE MADE A COUPLE UPDATES TO INCLUDE THE
LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA FOR TEMPS...DEW POINTS...AND WINDS INTO
THE NEAR TERM FORECAST IN ORDER TO MAKE SURE THE FORECAST IS WELL
IN CHECK WITH THE ONGOING CONDITIONS. OTHERWISE...NO FURTHER
UPDATES ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 730 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

THE OBS AND WEB CAMS SUGGEST THAT THE FOG IS MINIMAL OUT THERE NOW
WITH ONLY A HINT OF IT IN THE BOONEVILLE IMAGES. ADDITIONALLY THE
SKIES HAVE BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH RELATIVELY THICK...BUT
HIGH...CLOUDS. HAVE UPDATED THE GRIDS TO REFLECT THIS AND ALSO TO
FINE TUNE THE NEAR TERM T AND TD GRIDS PER THE LATEST OBS AND
TRENDS. THESE GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS
ALONG WITH A FRESHENED SET OF ZONES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

06Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS COOL HIGH PRESSURE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST OF
THE AREA WITH A COLD FRONT SOUTH OF THE CWA. A BAND OF MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY ARE PASSING THROUGH
FAR SOUTHERN KENTUCKY. OTHERWISE...THE SKIES ARE CLEAR AND THIS
HAS HELPED TO SET UP A PRETTY GOOD RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE
SPLIT THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. READINGS CURRENTLY VARY
FROM THE MID 40S IN THE SHELTERED EASTERN VALLEYS TO THE MID 50S
ON THE RIDGES. MEANWHILE...DEWPOINTS ARE RUNNING IN THE MID 40S
SO THAT THE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS HAVE CLOSED IN THOSE COOLER
VALLEYS LIKELY RESULTING IN SOME PATCHY FOG...THOUGH NONE IS SEEN
IN THE OBS... WEB CAMS...OR FOG CHANNEL FROM THE SATELLITES.
EITHER WAY THE FOG WILL BE LESS OF A PROBLEM THIS MORNING THAN IT
WAS ON FRIDAY.

THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AS THEY ALL DEPICT A SHARPENING RIDGE OVER
THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE NATION. THIS BURGEONING RIDGING
WILL HELP SHUNT A WEAK MID LEVEL ENERGY STREAM NORTH OF THE AREA
THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER...A DEEP AND BROAD TROUGH INITIALLY
MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TODAY WILL PRESS EAST AND START TO
OPEN UP RELEASING MORE ENERGY THAT WILL BEGIN TO STRAFE THE
WESTERN BOUNDARIES OF THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO VALLEYS BY SUNDAY
EVENING. GIVEN THE BROAD MODEL AGREEMENT HAVE FOLLOWED THE HRRR
AND NAM12 MOST CLOSELY FOR WX DETAILS.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE A BIT OF PATCHY VALLEY FOG AND COOL
CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT NOT AS COOL OR FOGGY AS IT WAS
24 HOURS AGO. PARTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO REACH
THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S THIS AFTERNOON WITH COMFORTABLY LOW
HUMIDITY. A BIT MORE IN THE WAY OF HIGH CLOUDS TONIGHT MAY LIMIT
THE RIDGE TO VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT A TAD MORE THAN WHAT WE ARE
SEEING THIS MORNING. FOR SUNDAY...THE HEART OF THE RIDGE SHOULD
RESULT IN FEWER CLOUDS...BUT SOME HIGH CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE FROM
THE APPROACHING UPPER SYSTEM AND DEEPENING SURFACE LOW TO THE
WEST...ALONG WITH PERHAPS SOME LOWER ONES MOVING IN FROM THE WEST
BY EVENING. TEMPERATURE WILL TICK UP ANOTHER NOTCH FOR HIGHS ON
SUNDAY WITH MID 80S ANTICIPATED.

AGAIN USED THE SHORTBLEND AS A STARTING POINT FOR THE T/TD AND
WIND GRIDS TODAY BEFORE FOLLOWING WITH THE SUPERBLEND. DID MAKE
SOME MODERATE TERRAIN BASED CHANGES TO THE LOW TEMPERATURES AGAIN
TONIGHT. AS FOR POPS...KEPT THEM MINIMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...IN
LINE WITH MOS GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

THE PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WITH HEIGHT RISES AND A RIDGE
BUILDING FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES INTO THE OH VALLEY
REGION...WITH A BROAD TROUGH OVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN US INTO THE
PLAINS STATES. THE AXIS OF THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST OF THE
AREA ON MONDAY...WITH THE FIRST OF A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES
MOVING FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER OH AND TN VALLEY
REGION MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A
GENERALLY SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
REGION FOR THE MEMORIAL DAY HOLIDAY AND INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...THE REGION WILL REMAIN IN THE
WARM SECTOR...WITH SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PREVAILING
WITH THE RIDGE AXIS TO THE EAST. A WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS IS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN
CONVECTION IS ANTICIPATED ON TUESDAY...AND CONVECTION SHOULD HAVE
AT LEAST A DIURNAL FLAVOR EACH DAY FROM TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
THE SECOND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION AT MIDWEEK PER THE MODEL CONSENSUS...BRINGING CONTINUED
CHANCES FOR CONVECTION AND POSSIBLY BRINGING A BIT MORE COVERAGE
AT NIGHT. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S WITH LOWS MODERATING
THROUGH THE PERIOD AS DEWPOINTS AND MOISTURE GENERALLY INCREASE.

LATE IN THE PERIOD...ON FRIDAY...RECENT GUIDANCE HAS THE RIDGE
GENERALLY DOMINATING WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES. CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION APPEAR BEST CLOSER TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE CUMBERLAND PLATEAU...HOWEVER...DEPENDING ON
THE POSITION AND STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE...THE REGION MIGHT END UP
CAPPED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 137 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

VFR CONDITIONS UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY OPAQUE HIGH CLOUDS WILL PREVAIL
AT THE TAF SITES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH LIGHT WINDS /GENERALLY
5 KTS OR LESS AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION/. WHILE SOME VALLEY FOG
IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT...DO NOT EXPECT TAF SITES TO BE AFFECTED.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JMW
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...JMW



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