Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 282113

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson KY
513 PM EDT THU JUL 28 2016

Issued at 513 PM EDT THU JUL 28 2016

Opted to let the flash flood watch go for much of the area given
the lack of sufficient rainfall rates. Still some higher rainfall
rates to move through southeast Kentucky, so will maintain the
watch down that way for now. May be able to revisit the need for
the watch in the next few hours as things move on out. Looks
fairly dry back behind this batch of rainfall.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 325 PM EDT THU JUL 28 2016

Latest surface analysis shows a surface low just southwest of the
forecast area, along the central KY/TN border. This surface low
should continue to lift northeast through the evening and early
overnight hours, spreading showers and thunderstorms across the
area. Looks like these showers will be lighter overall than
rainfall earlier in the day. However, still cannot rule out
locally heavy rain mainly in the eastern portions of East
Kentucky. Fortunately, the Bluegrass region looks to be spared
from additional heavy rainfall as drier air is quickly building
east towards Lexington, per latest Visible imagery.

The surface low should be east of the area prior to 12Z tomorrow
with showers exiting southwest to northeast during the overnight
hours. Depending on rainfall coverage overnight, in conjunction
with a very saturated ground, there is the potential for dense
fog to develop. This will be the primary concern overnight

Additional upper level waves will move through the broad trough
that is situated over the area. This will allow for continued
shower and thunderstorm chances tomorrow afternoon through the end
of the period. Though, coverage will be more scattered in nature
compared to today.

Temperatures will rebound into the mid 80s tomorrow with more
sunshine in place, whereas morning lows will stay mild, around 70

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 335 PM EDT THU JUL 28 2016

Upper level wise a large scale trough will setup across much of
the Eastern CONUS, meanwhile the upper level high will be
suppressed into the Gulf of Mexico. This trough is expected to
hang on through much of the period before a ridge builds back east
from the Southern and Central Plains by mid to late week. Overall
models are in decent agreement with the overall large scale upper
level pattern. Now in terms of the surface we are looking at a
pesky front to be the feature of interest at least through
Tuesday. This will interact with upper level waves riding through
the flow to bring chances of storms to the region. Overall best
chances for pops right now will be Saturday before signals become
less defined. Particularly as the quasi stationary front drops
south of the region by Tuesday. The best chances after this look
to be more in the far east and southern portion of the CWA. All
this said for most days this will be diurnally driven convection.
The temperatures will be near to slightly below average before
climbing back to bit above average by the end of the period.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)

Several rounds of heavy rainfall moving northeast through Eastern
Kentucky today has led to variable conditions across the forecast
area. The initial round of rainfall is now in far east KY,
affecting SJS. Behind this, some breaks in the rainfall can be
expected before a surface low brings more rainfall to the central
and eastern portions of the area later this afternoon and evening.
With these showers, can expect any heavier shower or thunderstorm
that passes over a TAF site to drop conditions down to or below
LIFR. Depending on the rain coverage overnight tonight,
development of patchy dense fog is possible with a very moist
airmass in place. Tomorrow, rain should taper off from southwest
to northeast prior to dawn, with additional scattered showers and
thunderstorm chances during the afternoon hours.


.JKL Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Flash Flood Watch through Friday morning for KYZ087-088-110-113-



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