Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 220832

National Weather Service Jackson KY
332 AM EST Wed Nov 22 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 259 AM EST WED NOV 22 2017

A cold front is advancing southward across east Kentucky early
this morning. The narrow band of precipitation along the boundary
has already shifted off to the north and east with just a band of
clouds now existing with the feature. As the front exits this
morning, questions still surround cloud cover potential. NAM Bufr
soundings still show some low cloud development. Given the
upslope flow, this scenario could still play out, but as of right
now, very little low clouds observed immediately behind the
frontal boundary. There are some lower clouds farther back to the
north (north of Cincinnati), that could filter into the area
closer to daybreak. However, confidence is not high on how cloud
cover will behave this morning given the tremendous clearing
presently noted to our northwest. Temperatures will fall into the
30s by daybreak, and the degree of sunshine we see today will
determine how to what degree we warm through the 40s for afternoon
highs. More sunshine would likely yield higher values than are in
the current forecast. Whatever cloud cover does develop will clear
off this afternoon, with clear skies expected tonight. With the
high building in across the area tonight, a cold night is
anticipated with lows well into the 20s. A few upper teens may be
possible in the eastern valleys. Temperature advection heading
into Thanksgiving day looks very weak, so likely looking at highs
in the 40s again after the very cold start. However, we should
see a good deal of sunshine for Thanksgiving day.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 332 AM EST WED NOV 22 2017

The long wave pattern will be amplified through the period across
the CONUS. Ridging will remain in control across the Desert
Southwest, with troughing in the East, as well as across the
Pacific Northwest. Early next week, the Pacific Northwest long
wave trough will pull onshore, eventually crossing the Rockies and
into the Plains by next Tuesday. This will shunt the ridging off
to the east, maintaining an extended period of mainly dry weather
across the Ohio and Tennessee valleys.

Thursday night will start out with high pressure gradually
shifting to our east, allowing for another cold night in the
decoupled valleys. Have undercut the blended guidance, with some
lower 20s likely in the far eastern sheltered sites. A cold
front will move through the Ohio Valley Friday through Saturday.
Any shower activity, looks to stay just to our north, closer to
the better moisture pooling and forcing. Temperatures will average
near normal across our area, with highs generally in the mid 50s.
Another cool down will follow this front, with highs back in the
40s by Sunday. Warming will then ensue once again, as heights
recover into early next week. Highs on Monday will be in the lower
50s, with upper 50s to near 60 by Tuesday.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)

VFR conditions will continue over the next 3 to 4 hours...but
confidence is increasing that a low deck of clouds may develop
behind a departing cold front around or after 10z. Thus, will
bring in some MVFR conditions around this time. Model soundings
show some potential for ceilings to reach IFR, but confidence is
lower in this scenario. West Winds of 5-10 knots will veer
northerly overnight while diminishing below 5 knots Wednesday
afternoon as clouds lift and mix out.




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