Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 020818
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
418 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

PRESENTLY...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS PUSHING INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY
REGION. AN MCS DEVELOPED YESTERDAY EVENING HEAD OF THIS TROUGH AND
IS NOW MARCHING EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN INDIANA...STRETCHING
BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST ACROSS SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. IR SATELLITE HAS
SHOWN SOME WARMING WITH THE CLOUD TOPS OVER THE PAST HOUR OR
TWO...INDICATING THAT THIS MCS MAY ALREADY BE ON THE DECLINE. IN
FACT...THE HRRR SUPPORTS THE IDEA OF A DYING MCS AS IT TRIES TO PUSH
INTO CENTRAL KENTUCKY TOWARDS DAYBREAK. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS
PUSHING INTO THE BLUEGRASS SHORTLY AFTER 8 AM...BUT ANTICIPATE MORE
OF THE ACTION WITH THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL COME LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AS WE GENERATE SOME INSTABILITY. WITH THIS IN MIND...PLAN
TO BACK OFF THE POPS THROUGH MIDDAY WITH JUST SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS
FOR AREAS NORTH OF I-64. OUTFLOW FROM THE DYING MCS WILL BE PUSHING
ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...AND COULD KICK START
THE CONVECTION AS IT ENCOUNTERS SOME DECENT INSTABILITY. THE FORCING
ALOFT SHOULD ALLOW FOR FAIRLY GOOD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. WITH BULK SHEAR VALUES OF 30-40KTS THIS
AFTERNOON...A SEVERE THREAT WOULD EXIST AS THUNDERSTORMS COULD PUT
OUT SOME DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. THE SHEAR PROFILES WEAKEN BY MID
EVENING AND THE LOSS OF DAYTIME INSTABILITY SHOULD YIELD WEAKENING
STORMS AFTER 6 PM. HOWEVER...A FEW GUSTY WINDS MAY STILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH 8 OR 9 PM.

THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL STALL A COLD FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN
KENTUCKY BY LATE THIS EVENING. GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF THIS
BOUNDARY...AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE...IT MAY BE POSSIBLE TO SEE
ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGH THE NIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
KENTUCKY. THIS BOUNDARY WILL LINGER AROUND INTO WEDNESDAY AND WITH
INSTABILITY AGAIN RAMPING UP DURING THE AFTERNOON...WE COULD BE
LOOKING AT A FEW MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...BY WEDNESDAY...VERY LITTLE SHEAR IS
PRESENT...SO WE SHOULD SEE MORE ORDINARY THUNDERSTORMS WITH NO SEVERE
THREAT.

TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT 2 DAYS SHOULD BE FAIRLY SIMILAR TO WHAT WE
HAVE SEEN LATELY WITH HIGHS INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S. SAME CAN BE SAID
FOR LOWS TONIGHT WITH READINGS GENERALLY AROUND 70.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 418 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY REFERENCED IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE DISSOLVING
EARLY IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD...BUT THERE SHOULD STILL BE DRY AIR IN
PLACE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ALOFT. IF ANY CONVECTIVE PRECIP
CAN DEVELOP OFF OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...IT
SHOULD DIE OUT BY NIGHT AS HEATING IS LOST AND SUPPORT ALOFT WILL
LIKELY BE LACKING.

DEEPER MOISTURE WILL MAKE A COMEBACK LATE IN THE WEEK AND MAY FUEL
A RESURGENCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...BUT A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
ALOFT OVER THE SE CONUS WILL HELP TO KEEP COVERAGE LIMITED FOR A
WHILE. THE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AND GET SUPPRESSED BY A BROAD TROUGH
DROPPING SE INTO THE NE CONUS DURING THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL ALLOW A
COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO OUR REGION FROM THE NW. THE SCENARIO WILL
ALLOW AN INCREASE IN PRECIP COVERAGE...WITH A PEAK EXPECTED ON
SATURDAY. EVEN THOUGH THE FRONT SHOULD PASS BY SUNDAY...THE MODELS
STILL LEAVE SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW EFFECTIVE THE FRONT WILL BE AT
BRINGING IN A DRIER AIR MASS. HAVE HELD ONTO LOW POPS IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...ESPECIALLY IN OUR SE
COUNTIES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 207 AM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES OVER THE NEXT 24
TO 36 HOURS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY
TODAY AND COULD SPAWN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS. PLAN TO
STICK WITH THE VCTS THIS AFTERNOON AS TIMING AND UNCERTAINTY ARE TOO
GREAT TO GO WITH A THUNDERSTORM PREVAILING GROUP. ACTIVITY SHOULD
WANE BY MID TO LATE EVENING WITH A QUIET NIGHT EXPECTED TONIGHT.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...KAS






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