Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 211104
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
704 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 655 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

FORECAST SEEMS TO BE FAIRLY WELL ON TRACK AS RAIN AND COLD FRONT HAVE NOW
EXITED TO OUR EAST...AND THE NEXT BATCH OF CLOUDS ARE ROLLING IN
RESPONSE TO WRAP AROUND MOISTURE FROM THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CURRENTLY SITTING OVER THE MID/UPPER ATLANTIC COAST. WENT AHEAD AND
KEPT 30 POPS IN THE FAR EAST WHERE UPSLOPE MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO
LEAD TO THE REDEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS TODAY...THOUGH SO FAR
WE ARE IN A BIT OF A BREAK FROM THE ACTION. THE INCOMING CIG HEIGHTS
ARE VARYING FROM MVFR TO VFR...SO WILL BE INTERESTED TO SEE HOW THEY
WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT EASTERN KY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ELSEWHERE
ACROSS THE REGION...PATCHY DENSE VALLEY FOG HAS BEEN REPORTED.
UPDATED THE ONGOING WEATHER GRIDS TO ACCOMMODATE THIS THROUGH EARLY
MORNING. HOPEFULLY THE PUSH OF INCOMING CLOUD COVER AND DAYTIME
HEATING WILL BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOG TO DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. IN THE MEANTIME...WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED AN SPS GOOD UNTIL
9AM/13Z FOR THE PATCHY DENSE FOG.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

AFTER THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT LAST NIGHT...MUCH OF THE
REGION SHOULD EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS INTO THE DAY TODAY UNDER
GENERALLY NW FLOW. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE FAR EAST...WHICH WILL
SEE ENOUGH WRAP AROUND MOISTURE FROM THE STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CURRENTLY SITTING JUST TO OUR NE...THAT UPSLOPE FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR
SCT SHOWER CHANCES BOTH TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE MOISTURE AND FORCING
WILL BE WEAK...SO RAIN ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT...IF NOT
INSIGNIFICANT. THE MOISTURE WILL ALSO LEAD TO CONTINUED CLOUD COVER
ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE CWA AS WELL...WITH ONLY THE FAR SW
COUNTIES EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY CLEAR TODAY AND TONIGHT. BY
TOMORROW...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TREK SLIGHTLY FARTHER
EASTWARD...JUST ENOUGH TO PULL ANY FURTHER MOISTURE POTENTIAL OUT OF
THE FAR EAST.

IN ADDITION TO THE MOISTURE PULL ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS LOW...KY
WILL ALSO FIND ITSELF UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A STRONG NORTH TO SOUTH
ORIENTED UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK...PULLING STRONG NRLY COOLER AIR
FROM CANADA. THIS JET STREAK WILL MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST FOLLOWING
THE UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE PATTERN. JKL CAN EXPECT TO FIND ITSELF
UNDER THE BEST INFLUENCE OF THIS JET STREAK OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND
INTO THE DAY TOMORROW. SO ALTHOUGH THE MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO KEEP
CLOUD COVER ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE REGION...THE STRONG PULL OF
CANADIAN AIR WILL STILL PLAY A LARGE INFLUENCE IN THE OVERNIGHT
TEMPS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT OUT OF THE UPPER
30S...ESPECIALLY IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN
HAVE A HARD TIME REBOUNDING TOMORROW. LOW TO MID 50S ARE TO BE
EXPECTED FOR HIGHS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION. AS THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH CONTINUES TO SLOWLY TREK EASTWARD TOMORROW...THE LOW AND WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO MOVE OUT OF EASTERN KY...WITH
CLEARING SKIES EXPECTED TO ENSUE AS WE HEAD INTO LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 430 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

A WEAKENING RIDGE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BE MOVING IN FROM THE
WEST AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...BRINGING DRY WX AND DECREASING
CLOUDS. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO FLATTEN THE RIDGE AND PASS
OVER EARLY ON FRIDAY. HOWEVER...WITH LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...
NOTHING MORE THAN A FEW CLOUDS IS EXPECTED. THE ECMWF IS SHOWING
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ON FRIDAY NIGHT. SOME RUNS OF THE ECMWF GENERATE
LIGHT PRECIP WITH THE FRIDAY NIGHT FEATURE...BUT NOT CONSISTENTLY...
AND THE GFS IS DRY. HAVE OPTED TO MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST AT THIS
POINT.

AFTER FRIDAY NIGHT...A LARGE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD
EASTWARD FROM THE PLAINS...PASSING KY ON SUNDAY AND REACHING THE EAST
COAST ON MONDAY. IT WILL BRING MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES TO START THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 702 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

AFTER THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT THROUGH EASTERN KY THIS
MORNING...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT TO A MORE NW DIRECTION. DECENT
PRESSURE GRADIENTS BETWEEN THE EXITING LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE OFF TO
OUR WEST WILL LEAD TO HEIGHTENED WIND SPEEDS OVER THE NEXT 48
HOURS...ESPECIALLY IN THE UPPER LEVELS. AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAK
WILL ORIENT ITSELF FROM NORTH TO SOUTH FROM CANADA THROUGH
KY...MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
MEANWHILE...AT THE SURFACE...EXPECT WRAP AROUND MOISTURE FROM THE
EXITING LOW /CURRENTLY SITTING OVER THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE
APPALACHIAN REGION/...TO CONTINUE TO PULL CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE
REGION. CIGS SHOULD GENERALLY LIFT TO VFR DURING THE DAY...AFTER THE
DISSIPATION OF MORNING FOG...AND THEN FALL AGAIN OVERNIGHT...MOST
LIKELY TO MVFR...THOUGH SOME LOWER CIGS MAY BE POSSIBLE BY LATE IN
THE TAF PERIOD AROUND 24 HOURS FROM NOW. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY...JUST
STUCK WITH MENTION OF MVFR AT THIS TIME. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL
ALSO LEAD TO UPSLOPE FLOW IN THE FAR EAST...RESULTING IN RAIN SHOWER
CHANCES TODAY AND TONIGHT. EXPECT THAT KSJS SHOULD BE THE ONLY TAF
SITE WHICH WILL BE AFFECTED. AND ANY SHOWERS THAT DO FORM ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AND CAUSE MINIMAL IMPACTS.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JMW
SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...JMW








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