Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 240805
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
405 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

THE MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM. THE NAM12
SOLUTION WAS PREFERRED WITH ITS NORMAL RELIABILITY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL KEEP THE WEATHER OF EASTERN KENTUCKY DRY AND WARM TODAY THROUGH
EARLY TONIGHT. DAYTIME HIGHS SHOULD HAVE NO TROUBLE CLIMBING INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS TODAY...AS LIGHT WINDS AND DRY
AIR ALLOW FOR MAXIMIZED DAY TIME HEATING. THE INITIAL FORECAST ISSUE
IN THE SHORT TERM WILL IN FACT BE THE DRY WEATHER. LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY AND FUEL STICK MOISTURE VALUES WILL LEAD TO ENHANCED WILD
FIRE DANGER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. OUR NEXT ISSUE OF NOTE IN THE
FORECAST WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE LATEST MODELS ARE BRINGING A FAST MOVING COLD
FRONT ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEY REGIONS TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW. AS THIS FRONT TAPS INTO GULF MOISTURE ON ITS EASTWARD
TREK...NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRE
ALONG IT. OUR ONE SAVING GRACE WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ITS
TIMING...AS THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA MAINLY
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS WILL GREATLY LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY AVAILABLE FOR THUNDERSTORM FORMATION. THIS SHOULD KEEP
CHANCES OF THUNDER AT A MINIMUM BOTH TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE TIME OF
YEAR...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 50S ACROSS THE BOARD. HIGHS ON
FRIDAY WILL A BIT CLOSER TO BUT LIKELY STILL A BIT ABOVE
NORMAL...WITH MAX VALUES IN THE LOWER 70S EXPECTED. THE PRESENCE OF
CLOUDS AND PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BE THE REASON FOR THE
WARMER TEMPERATURES THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 404 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

THE MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH REGARDS TO A BLOCKY
AMPLIFIED LONG WAVE PATTERN TO RULE ACROSS THE CONUS INTO NEXT WEEK.
A DEEP TROUGH WILL ESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
CONUS THIS WEEKEND...WITH RIDGING INITIALLY SHARPENING ACROSS THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND TROUGHING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE SPINNING ACROSS THE PLAINS...WHILE
ANOTHER SPIRALS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC. ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH
THESE TWO FEATURES WILL GRADUALLY BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE IN
BETWEEN...ALLOWING FOR THE PLAINS LOW TO TAKE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...WITH AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER IN THE OFFING.

DETAILS ASSOCIATED WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE
FEATURES REMAIN LOW CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT...GIVEN THE HIGH
AMPLITUDE OF THE SYSTEM. AS SUCH...WILL RELY HEAVILY ON A BLEND OF
THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE AND THE INHERITED FORECAST.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE ACROSS
EASTERN KENTUCKY THIS WEEKEND...AS WE REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...WHILE WINDS REMAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST IN THE LOW LEVELS.

EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE TROUGHS OUT AHEAD OF THE PLAINS LOW WILL BEGIN TO
THREATEN THE AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. HAVE UNDERCUT THE
BLENDED POPS JUST A BIT...AS THE OVERALL TREND DOES LOOK A TAD SLOWER
AND WE WILL HAVE DOWNSLOPE WINDS IN PLACE. POPS WILL GRADUALLY RAMP
UP TO LIKELY AT ALL LOCATIONS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK...ALTHOUGH ATTEMPTED TO PUT A LITTLE BIT OF A DIURNAL INFLUENCE
ON THE POPS AT TIMES...GIVEN THE LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING THE
MULTIPLE SHOTS OF FORCING.

TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY COOL OFF INTO NEXT WEEK...WITH HIGHS
DROPPING BACK TO WELL BELOW NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW DRIFTS CLOSER WITH TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 131 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

VFR AND LIGHT WINDS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE IS A MID
LEVEL CEILING AT 10-15K FT AGL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER ABOUT 08Z.
THIS CLOUD DECK WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY DURING THE DAY
TODAY...AND WILL EVENTUALLY GIVE WAY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. LATER
TONIGHT...A SCATTERED DECK OF HIGH CLOUDS IS EXPECTED TO INVADE THE
AREA FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...AR





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