Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 220216

National Weather Service Jackson KY
1016 PM EDT Fri Oct 21 2016

Issued at 1016 PM EDT FRI OCT 21 2016

Extended isolated shower mention past midnight while bumping up
cloud cover a bit more through the night as upslope flow remains

UPDATE Issued at 800 PM EDT FRI OCT 21 2016

Isolated to scattered showers continue this evening across the
higher terrain of far eastern Kentucky. Trough axis shifting east
into the Appalachians will allow for this activity to continue a
weakening trend, although a decent pressure gradient will allow
for enough of a low level upslope component to keep mention in the
forecast through around midnight. These gusty winds combined with
a persistent stratocumulus deck should keep any frost spotty in
nature and confined to sheltered/deeper valleys.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 350 PM EDT FRI OCT 21 2016

Lingering isold to sct upslope showers will gradually diminish
through the late afternoon and early evening as surface high
pressure begins to nose its way into the area tonight. In
addition, our low stratocu deck will be slow to dissipate. Areas
most likely to begin clearing first will be our far southwest
counties later tonight or early in the morning. Clearing line
will gradually move eastward through the remainder of the day

Real focus for the short term turns to overnight lows and whether
there will be a potential for any frost. Clouds and a steady
northwest gradient flow around 5 mph will tend to keep our
temperatures up and kill any potential for frost tonight. Feel
the potential for frost will be low Saturday night into Sunday as
well. The center of the sfc high pressure will remain well to our
south Saturday night and gradient return flow will also be on the
increase ahead of an approaching system moving through the
Midwest. Thus radiative cooling will not be ideal. The only
concern might be our typically colder, deeper eastern valleys
where a nocturnal inversion will have an opportunity to set up
before return flow is able to keep the boundary layer mixed out.
As a general rule, western valleys are much easier to mix out
under these circumstances. Guidance does suggest eastern valley
locations will see temperatures dropping in the mid to upper 30s
by sunrise Sunday. However, models also indicate that wet bulb
temperatures will remain in the mid to upper 30s. So while fog may
be possible am not confident enough that frost would be a problem.
To summarize, while some very isolated patchy frost in a couple of
spots can not be ruled out, lack of coverage and low confidence
allows leaving any mention of frost out of the forecast for now.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 350 PM EDT FRI OCT 21 2016

A mainly dry and seasonable forecast is in store for Eastern
Kentucky through the extended period. The period will start out on
the chilly side Sunday morning with lows in the mid 30s and low 40s.
Temperatures will rebound towards 70 degrees in the afternoon as
high pressure skirts by. A cold front will push through the area
Monday morning but won`t bring any precipitation, just a wind shift
back to the north and a much drier airmass. Tuesday morning is
looking quite chilly with Co-Op MOS showing valley temps at or just
below freezing. So have decided to drop valley temps below
Superblend into the low and mid 30s and include patchy frost in the

Temperatures will rebound into the low 70s by Wednesday ahead of
shortwave trough. This trough is expected to bring a cold front
through the region late Wednesday night into Thursday. Moisture with
this frontal passage looks a bit better than in previous model runs
so there is a decent chance for precipitation on Thursday. Low level
moisture appears to hang around on Friday, allowing for at least
partly cloudy skies and seasonable temperatures to prevail.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)

VFR conditions in place for all TAF sites as gusty northwest winds
keep ceilings elevated above MVFR levels, and lingering shower
activity this evening remains south and east of all sites. May
see borderline MVFR ceilings through the night, especially at
JKL/SJS, but overall diminishing trend in cloud cover overnight
should preclude this from becoming widespread. Cloud cover will
continue to decrease and lift through the day Saturday as
northwest winds increase to near 10 knots by mid-late morning.




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