Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 051014
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
514 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 514 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

A MAJOR WINTER STORM CONTINUES TO AFFECT EASTERN KENTUCKY EARLY
THIS MORNING. A LARGE AREA OF MODERATE SNOW IS CURRENTLY MOVING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN KENTUCKY GENERALLY EAST OF THE I75
CORRIDOR. ANOTHER BAND OF INTENSE SNOW IS ALSO REORGANIZING AND
MOVING BACK INTO OUR FAR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES. A QUICK CHECK OF
UPSTREAM RADAR LOOPS CLEARLY SHOWS MORE BANDS AND AREAS OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW MOVING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY THAT
WILL EVENTUALLY MAKE THEIR WAY INTO OUR AREA. EVEN THOUGH SNOW
TOTALS ACROSS THE AREA HAVE NOT BEEN QUITE AS HIGH TO THIS POINT
AS WE HAD PREVIOUSLY FORECAST...IT DOES APPEAR WE WILL HAVE PLENTY
OF CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE MORNING TO PICK UP WARNING CRITERIA SNOW
FALL FOR ALL OF THE AREA. THE ONE AREA WHERE THE SNOW HAS BEEN
PILING UP QUICKLY IS NORTH OF THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY. THE I64
CORRIDOR HAS SEEN A NUMBER OF LOCATIONS PICK UP 6 TO 8 INCHES OF
SNOW SINCE YESTERDAY EVENING. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT MORE
SNOW IS ON THE WAY...SO THERE COULD BE AREAS UP THERE THAT SEE
AROUND A FOOT OF SNOW BEFORE THE EVENT COMES TO AND LATE THIS
MORNING.

THE FORECAST GRIDS WERE MODIFIED TO REFLECT THE HIGHER SNOW FALL
AMOUNTS IN OUR FAR NORTH IN RELATION TO A NARROW BAND OF HEAVY
SNOW THAT MOVED THROUGH THERE OVERNIGHT. THE NEW FORECAST WILL
ALSO REFLECT HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA PER THE LATEST HRRR MODEL OUTPUT.
TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY WILL NOT RISE VERY MUCH DUE TO ALL THE
SNOW...SO HIGHS WILL LIKELY ONLY TOP OUT 20S ACROSS THE AREA. THE
SNOW SHOULD BEGIN WINDING DOWN BY MID MORNING...AND BE OUT OF
EASTERN KENTUCKY BY MID AFTERNOON.

FLOODING WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO BE AN ISSUE TODAY AND TOMORROW...AS
AREA RIVERS HAVE BECOME SWOLLEN DUE TO HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THE
PAST 24 HOURS AND RUNOFF FROM SNOW MELT. NUMEROUS FLOOD WARNINGS
ARE CURRENTLY IN AFFECT ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. A NUMBER OF OUR
RIVERS WILL CONTINUE TO RUN HIGH THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 514 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

AN EXTENDED DISCUSSION WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1237 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

A COMPLEX WINTER STORM CONTINUES TO PUMMEL EASTERN KENTUCKY
TONIGHT. MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW CONTINUES TO FALL AT SYM AND WILL
DO SO THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE SNOW WILL LIKELY NOT
SLACK UP THERE UNTIL AROUND 15Z ON THURSDAY. JKL AND SME WERE
EXPERIENCING A MESSY MIX OF RAIN...FREEZING RAIN...AND SLEET AT
TAF ISSUANCE. LOZ SHOULD BE SEEING THE MIX OF PRECIP BETWEEN 6 AND
7Z. THE TRANSITION TO SNOW IS EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE AT JKL BY 7
OR 8Z...WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW EXPECTED THROUGH MIDMORNING ON
THURSDAY. LOZ AND SME ARE AT THE SOUTHERN END OF THE MAIN AREA OF
SNOW...AND SHOULD NOT RECEIVE AS MUCH SNOW AS THE TAF SITES AT
JKL...SYM...AND SJS...WHERE MUCH HIGHER TOTALS ARE EXPECTED.
CONDITIONS AT THE TAF SITES WILL VARY GREATLY DURING THE
NIGHT...AND WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE INTENSITY OF THE SNOW. THE
WORSE CASE SCENARIO WILL BE LIFR CONDITIONS IN THE HEAVIEST
SNOW...WITH VSBYS WELL BELOW 1/4SM AT TIMES. TIMES WHEN THE SNOW
IS NOT FALLING AS HEAVILY THE TAF SITES ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE MVFR
TO IFR CONDITIONS.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-
069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR KYZ044-
050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...AR


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