Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000
FXUS63 KJKL 310105
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
905 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 905 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

FORECAST ON TRACK THIS EVENING. DISTURBANCE....SFC COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTHEAST IS KICKING OFF A FEW SHOWERS ACROSS OUR
NORTHEAST THIS EVENING. CAN NOT RULE OUT A STRAY THUNDERSTORM WHICH
THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS HANDLED WELL. UPDATED TEMP...DEW POINT...
POP GRIDS FOR LATEST HOURLY TRENDS AND THOUGHTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

19Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER
ACROSS EAST KENTUCKY. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT IS SINKING SOUTH
THROUGH OHIO AND AHEAD OF THIS AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
HAS DEVELOPED. OVER NORTHEAST PARTS OF KENTUCKY...A FEW SPRINKLES
AND STRAY SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ADVANCE OF THE LARGER CLUSTER
OF CONVECTION FURTHER NORTH. ON SATELLITE...THE CU OVER THE AREA ARE
MOSTLY SMALL AND OF A FAIR WEATHER VARIETY WHILE TO THE NORTH THEY
HAVE BETTER DEVELOPMENT AND COVERAGE...IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
BUILDING CONVECTION. THESE CLOUDS DID LITTLE TO HINDER THE
TEMPERATURE RISE TODAY FROM CHILLY LATE JULY LOWS IN THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE 50S. READINGS REACHED INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 70S FOR MOST
OF EAST KENTUCKY BY MID AFTERNOON. DEWPOINTS...MEANWHILE...ARE
HOLDING IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
REPORTED FOR THE MOST PART...THOUGH A FEW WEST TO NORTHWEST GUSTS UP
TO 15 KTS HAVE OCCURRED ACROSS THE NORTH SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT WITH THE GYRATIONS OF THE DEEP
UPPER LOW OVER THE HUDSON BAY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. THIS BROAD LOW
COVERS MORE THAN HALF THE NATION WITH ITS CORE EXTENDING INTO THE
GREAT LAKES. A COUPLE SHORTWAVES SPINNING AROUND THIS CENTER WILL
PASS NORTH OF KENTUCKY THROUGH TONIGHT. THE MID LEVEL ENERGY WILL
THEN TAKE A BREAK FROM AFFECTING THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY ON THURSDAY
BEFORE THE NEXT BATCH HEADS THIS WAY LATER THURSDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE
GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT...HAVE FOLLOWED DETAILS FROM THE HRRR AND
NAM12 MOST CLOSELY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM AMONGST THE SPRINKLES OVER NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE CWA
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE
EVENING. THE LATEST HRRR AND NAM12 GUIDANCE STILL KEEP THE BULK OF
ANY ACTIVITY OFF TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. HAVE FOLLOWED
THIS IDEA WITH THE POPS AND WEATHER THROUGH THE EVENING. HOWEVER...
SHOULD A MORE SUBSTANTIAL STORM MAKE IT IN HERE...OR DEVELOP...THERE
WILL BE A CHANCE FOR HAIL DUE TO THE COOLER MID LEVELS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE NEARBY UPPER LOW. ONCE THE MID LEVEL WAVES MOVE BY LATER
TONIGHT...THE CLOUDS WILL LIKELY CLEAR ALLOWING FOR ANOTHER NIGHT OF
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AND PATCHY TO WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPING IN
THE VALLEYS TOWARDS DAWN. WENT WITH A DECENT RIDGE TO VALLEY
TEMPERATURE SPLIT FOR LOWS TONIGHT AND ALSO FOR THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
A SIMILAR EXPECTATION FOR LATE NIGHT VALLEY FOG. HOWEVER...OVER FAR
EAST KENTUCKY...THERE WILL BE A POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS TO DEVELOP
THURSDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THAT NEXT APPROACHING MID LEVEL WAVE.
ON THURSDAY...ANOTHER NICE DAY WILL BE HAD UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
AND COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS AS READING REACH THE UPPER 70S AND
LOWER 80S.

ONCE AGAIN USED THE CONSSHORT...AND ITS BC VERSION...AS A STARTING
POINT FOR THE T...TD...AND WIND GRIDS THROUGH THE FIRST 24 HOURS AND
THE CONSALL SUITE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM FORECAST. MADE
SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT TO
BETTER REFLECT THE EXPECTED RIDGE TO VALLEY SPLITS. AS FOR POPS...
ENDED UP ON THE HIGH SIDE OF MOS GUIDANCE THIS EVENING AND AGAIN ON
THURSDAY NIGHT...MOST SIMILAR TO THE MET NUMBERS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD. EARLY ON...THE TROUGH/S AXIS
WILL SHIFT TO OUR WEST AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE DIVES INTO THE BASE OF
THE TROUGH. IN ADVANCE OF THIS SHORTWAVE...MOISTURE WILL GET PULLED
NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. WHILE THE
SURFACE FRONT WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTHEAST...AN 850 MB TROUGH AXIS
WILL BE ALIGNED RIGHT OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH OF A FOCUS TO SUPPLY SOLID CHANCES
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...PARTICULARLY EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

THE SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO SWING THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT
LEAVING A BROAD TROUGH ALOFT OVER OUR REGION. AT THE SURFACE...WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN AND THE DEEPER ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL
GET SHUNTED OFF TO OUR EAST. WILL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST FROM MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING THROUGH THE 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 905 PM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE BULK OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
EXCEPTION WILL BE LATE TONIGHT WHEN THE VALLEY SITES ARE EXPECTED TO
SEE A BOUT OF MVFR CONDITIONS FROM FOG...WHILE THE RIDGES MAY DIP
DOWN THERE FOR AN HOUR OR SO. CANNOT RULE OUT LOWER VSBY AND CIGS FOR
A TIME CLOSER TO DAWN AT KSME AND DEEPER VALLEY LOCATIONS. ANY FOG
THAT MANAGES TO FORM WILL BURN OFF SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE... RESUMING
VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD
WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...RAY
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...RAY




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