Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 281942
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
342 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 341 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

CURRENTLY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
AND TOWARDS JAMES BAY. AS IT MOVES...IT WILL PUSH A SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE SAME DIRECTION...WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING
SOUTHWARD THROUGH KY. THIS FRONT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER CENTRAL
KY AND SHOULD BE MAKING IT THROUGH THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE STATE
DURING THE EVENING HOURS. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT...A LINE OF SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED...AND IS CURRENTLY MOVING
INTO THE NW PORTION OF THE CWA. GIVEN THE LATEST TRENDS...THE GUSTY
WINDS WILL BE NON/EXCLUSIVE TO THE RAIN SHOWERS...AND SHOULD
CONTINUE INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON UNTIL NIGHTFALL /LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING/ AND THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. DUE TO THE AMOUNT OF
WIND...THE RAIN SHOWERS THAT ARE OUT THERE ARE SHOWING SIGNS OF
SHEARING OUT...AND AS A RESULT ARE MUCH WEAKER AND SCATTERED IN
NATURE THAN ORIGINALLY EXPECTED OR MODELED. GIVEN THE LACK OF ANY
STORM DEVELOPMENT THIS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON...EXPECT THAT MUCH OF
EASTERN KY SHOULD BE OUT OF THE WOODS FOR ANYTHING OTHER THAN
SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OF THUNDER AS
THIS SYSTEM PASSES OVER. THE LAST OF THE SHOWERS AND COLD FRONT
SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES AWAY FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND
INTO NE CANADA OVERNIGHT...MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS WILL BE LEFT
UNDER A STRONG TROUGHING PATTERN. THE NORTHERN JET STREAM WILL SINK
SOUTH INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY REGION...WITH NW FLOW USHERING IN
MUCH COLDER TEMPS FROM THE INTERIOR PORTIONS OF CANADA. SKIES WILL
BEGIN TO CLEAR OUT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO PLACE
TOMORROW. LINGERING MOISTURE AND CLOUDS TONIGHT SHOULD KEEP TEMPS
MODERATED TO AROUND THE 50 DEGREE RANGE...WITH HIGHS TOMORROW ONLY
EXPECTED TO REACH AROUND 60 DEGREES ONCE THE SKIES CLEAR IN THE
AFTERNOON. THEN...UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND MAXIMUM RADIATIONAL
COOLING...EXPECT WEDNESDAY NIGHT TEMPS TO DROP OUT INTO THE UPPER
30S IN MANY LOCATIONS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 421 AM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AS SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO EXIT EAST. THIS WILL BRING MOSTLY CLEAR TO
MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. HOWEVER
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE LATER THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT
AHEAD OF NEXT SHORTWAVE. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL DIG SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY AND WILL BRING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS NORTHERN AND
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AS WE MOVE INTO LATER FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT. THE CLOUD COVER COULD KEEP SOME AREAS FROM MAXIMIZING
RADIATIONAL COOLING FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. SATURDAY WILL
BE COOL DAY ACROSS THE REGION AS AIRMASS USHERS IN HIGHS IN THE MID
TO UPPER 40S TO EVEN LOWER 40S IN SOME SPOTS AS SURFACE HIGH
CONTINUES TO BUILD EAST. MOVING INTO SATURDAY NIGHT SURFACE HIGH WILL
CONTINUE TO CREST ACROSS THE REGION AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO
BUILD EAST. THIS WILL GIVE WAY TO CLEAR SKIES AND GOOD SETUP FOR
RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH KILLING FREEZE STILL POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE LOW 30S TO MID 20S ACROSS THE
REGION. SUNDAY INTO MONDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST
ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE UNDER RETURN FLOW WITH TEMPERATURES
BACK INTO THE LOWER 60S FOR HIGHS ON MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 152 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

AS A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO NEAR FROM THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE
STATE...A LINE OF SHOWERS /WITH THE POSSIBLE EMBEDDED ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM/ HAS CURRENTLY MOVED INTO THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE
STATE. EXPECT THIS LINE TO CONTINUES ITS MOVEMENT INTO EASTERN
KY...AFFECTING THE TAF SITES BETWEEN 19 AND 22Z. SO FAR...FROM
OBSERVATIONS UPSTREAM...MOST OF THE RAIN IS FAIRLY LIGHT AND
VISIBILITIES HAVE STAYED AROUND 6SM OR MORE...WITH CIGS IN THE LOW
RANGE VFR CATEGORY. SOME OF THE HEAVIEST RAIN SHOWERS MAY BRIEFLY
DROP VIS DOWN SLIGHTLY LOWER...BUT THE IMPACT OF A PARTICULARLY HEAVY
SHOWER OVER A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME TO A SINGLE TAF SITE IS TOO HARD
TO PINPOINT TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME. AN UPDATE WILL BE
MADE IF A PARTICULARLY HEAVY SHOWER IS NEARING A SITE.
OTHERWISE...THE MAIN THREAT TODAY WILL BE THE WIND GUSTS...WHICH ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. BY TONIGHT...EXPECT THUNDER CHANCES TO DIMINISH AND
RAIN TO SLOWLY TAPER OFF. SOME FOG MAY DEVELOP AS THE RAIN CLEARS
OUT...BUT SHOULD POSE A MINIMAL THREAT. BY TOMORROW...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE BACK INTO PLACE...KEEPING VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS
ACROSS EASTERN KY.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JMW
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...JMW






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