Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 201210 AAA
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
710 AM EST Tue Feb 20 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 630 AM EST TUE FEB 20 2018

Again touched up the sky cover grids through mid morning and also
added in the latest T and Td obs/trends. These grids have been
sent to the NDFD and web servers.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 340 AM EST TUE FEB 20 2018

08z sfc analysis shows a well defined warm front off to the
northwest of the area with high pressure holding on through
eastern Kentucky and points southeast. The pressure gradient
between these two features is keeping the winds moving from the
south to southwest above the inversion. This is supporting a very
mild night for most places, though a large ridge to valley
difference has set up with readings varying from the upper 40s in
the most sheltered eastern valleys to the low and mid 60s on the
ridges and in the more open areas. Dewpoints, meanwhile, are
in the low to mid 50s with winds generally 5 to 10 mph, though
occasional gusts to 15 mph are noted. Some mid and high level
clouds passing by, and the warm temperatures, are keeping any fog
at bay so far this night with that expected to be the case
through dawn.

The models are in terrific agreement aloft through the short term
portion of the forecast. The abnormally strong ridge will hold off
the Southeast Coast while any energy streams by well to the north
and west of Kentucky today and tonight. A shift in this ridge will
allow slightly lower heights to slip into the area on Wednesday,
though, along with more packets of energy strafing closer to the
CWA. Given the model matches will favor a blend with a lean toward
the higher resolution HRRR and NAM12 for specifics.

Sensible weather will feature a very unseasonably warm day in the
warm sector of a larger system to the west. In fact, with the
right amount of sunshine at peak heating we could set a max
temperature record for the month at JKL - while a daily record
high is nearly assured. Southwest winds - breezy through the
western portion of the area - will help to support warm
conditions. These winds could also produce some gusts to 30 mph
this afternoon in the western parts of the area and this will be
highlighted in the HWO. For tonight, see a repeat with slightly
warmer temperatures and just as much of a ridge to valley
difference in the east - more muted distinctions will be noted to
the west. Again fog will be hard to get due to the warmth and
clouds. Wednesday will be plenty warm, too - especially in the
east. The boundary to the northwest wavers into the area with
showers and even a thunderstorm or two possible for Wednesday
afternoon. More clouds and the rain potential will lower max temps
for the west on Wednesday. There is some question of whether the
front will be able to push too deep into eastern Kentucky and this
should spare the headwaters of our rivers from the heavier rains
in the near term. That may not be the case later in the week.

Again used the CONSShort and ShortBlend as the starting point for
all the grids through the short term. Continued to make
significant changes to the eastern valleys for lows tonight and
also more minor adjustments to the spot high temperature forecasts
for today and Wednesday. As for PoPs, allowed for some marginal
pre-frontal activity seeping up the spine of the Appalachians
tonight and Wednesday.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 240 AM EST TUE FEB 20 2018

The extended period will feature above normal temperatures and an
active weather pattern. A series of weather systems will bring
multiple rounds of rain to eastern Kentucky over the next seven
days. We ma even see a few thunderstorms across the area Wednesday
evening and again during the day on Friday. Several days of good
soaking rainfall are on tap. Temperatures on the warmest days should
max out in the 70s, while the less warm days will see highs in the
50s and 60s across the area. Nightly lows will follow a similar
pattern, with the warmest readings only falling into the 50s, and
the cooler nights seeing lows in the 40s. Friday will be the
windiest day during the period, with southwest flow of 10 to 15 mph
expected on that day. Sunday will also be quite breezy, with west
winds coming in at 10 to 15 mph that day as well.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
ISSUED AT 710 AM EST TUE FEB 20 2018

VFR conditions can be expected throughout the TAF period for
eastern Kentucky as the lower cigs will be kept well to the
northwest until later Wednesday. An ongoing LLJ is in place
across the Tennessee and Ohio Valley necessitating LLWS in the
TAFs until around 15z. This waning LLJ will likely lead to some
gusty winds mixing down late this morning and into the afternoon.
Overall, we will be looking at some 20 to 25 knot gusts for our
western airports, but higher gusts are not out of the question
mainly to the northwest of the official TAF sites. Look for more
LLWS to be a concern later this evening and continuing into
Wednesday morning.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GREIF
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...GREIF



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