Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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991
FXUS63 KJKL 270800
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
400 AM EDT WED APR 27 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT WED APR 27 2016

THIS MORNING WSR-88D RADAR IS SHOWING SOME RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY
ACROSS PORTION OF EASTERN KY. MORE OF A SCATTERED COVERAGE OVERALL
AND RIGHT NOW THE LATEST HRRR SEEMS TO BE HANDLING THIS...HOWEVER
THE NMM/ARW SEEM TO BE OVERDONE ON THE UPSTREAM SHOWERS. JUST CAN
NOT JUSTIFY THE MORE ROBUST POP CAMS ARE PAINTING GIVEN THE CLOUD
TOP WARMING TREND BASED ON IR SAT.

NOW THE REST OF THE DAY STILL REMAINS IN QUESTION. CAMS DO
REDEVELOP CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND WOULD PROBABLY RESIDE
ALONG LEFT OVER BOUNDARIES. HOWEVER GIVEN LACK OF UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT AND EVEN LESS SHEAR THAN YESTERDAY...WOULD THINK ANY
CONVECTION THAT FIRES WOULD BE FAIRLY DISORGANIZED. HOWEVER FELT
LIKE SCATTERED CONVECTION COULD NOT BE RULED OUT AND PERHAPS A
ISOLATED SEVERE REPORT IF WE REALIZE THE INSTABILITY. OVERALL KEPT
BETTER POPS IN THE SW TO MATCH THE SSEO THINKING UNTIL MORE
ORGANIZED CONVECTION WOULD ONCE AGAIN RIDE EAST THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT. THEREFORE BRING MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
STORMS AFTER 00Z...AND WOULD THINK OVERALL BETTER CHANCES WOULD
RESIDE ALONG AND NORTH OF THE MOUNTAIN PARKWAY. GENERALLY THINK
CONVECTION WILL WANE OVERNIGHT AND ISOLATED STORM WOULD BE THE
STORY OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY.

NOW FOR THURSDAY THERE LOOKS TO BE ONGOING CONVECTION EARLY ON AS
MENTIONED ABOVE. WE THEN LOOK TO AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM
THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AT THE SAME TIME AN UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW
EJECTS NE INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY REGION. THIS WILL LEAD TO
FALLING HEIGHTS AND LIFTING FROM THE BOUNDARY. TIMING SEEMS TO BE
THE BIGGEST QUESTION AND HOW MUCH CAN WE GET TO DEVELOP GIVEN THE
EARLY ON CONVECTION. HOWEVER THE WESTERLIES ALOFT BEGIN TO PICK
UP WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 35 TO 40 KNOTS. THE MODEL SOUNDING
FROM BOTH THE NAM AND GFS WOULD SUGGEST DCAPES APPROACHING THE
1000 J/KG RANGE...STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND AMPLY MID
LEVEL DRYING WHICH WOULD LEAD TO POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS. THE HAIL THREAT WOULD ALSO BE THERE WITH DECENT BOUYANCY IN
THE HAIL GROWTH ZONE...AFOREMENTIONED DEEP LAYER SHEAR...AND
FREEZING LEVELS LOWERING...BUT OVERALL THE STRONGER SIGNALS SEEM
TO POINT TO MORE OF A WIND THREAT. ALSO THERE ARE CERTAINLY SOME
SIGNALS WITH RESPECT TO THE CIPS ANALOG FOR THURSDAY. HOWEVER
RIGHT NOW GIVEN SOME OF THE UNCERTAINTY AKA MARGINAL SPC
RISK...AND WITH RESPECT TO MOST OF THE SHORT TERM MODELS MODEST
SIGNAL THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WILL HOLD OFF ON STRONGER MENTION IN
THE HWO.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM EDT WED APR 27 2016

AVAILABLE SHORTLY...

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 129 AM EDT WED APR 27 2016

MOST OF THE HEAVIER STORMS ARE ON THE WAY OUT OF THE REGION AT THIS
EARLY MORNING HOUR. BEST STORM COVERAGE RESIDES ACROSS THE FAR
EAST THIS HOUR. THIS WILL LEAD TO QUICK LOWERING OF VIS AND CIG TO
MAINLY MVFR AND PERHAPS IFR NEARER THESE STORMS. OTHERWISE MOST
SITES HAVE IMPROVED TONIGHT ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HEAVIER STORMS.
DID KEEP SOME MVFR IN THE FAR NORTH FOR CIGS JUST GIVEN THE CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO THE FRONT AND THIS SEEMED MATCH UP WITH THE BLENDED
GUIDANCE. SOME OF THE MESO GUIDANCE WOULD SUGGEST A LULL
OVERNIGHT...BUT WILL KEEP SOME -SHRA IN THE TAFS THROUGH THE
MORNING. THEN TOMORROW AFTERNOON MORE CONVECTION COULD FIRE
UP...HOWEVER A FAIR AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH WHERE THAT
WILL OCCUR. RIGHT NOW WILL KEEP THE VCTS/-SHRA GOING INTO THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING TODAY.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DJ
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...DJ



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