Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 290540 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson KY
140 AM EDT SUN MAY 29 2016

Issued at 120 AM EDT SUN MAY 29 2016

Just a quick update to nudge temperatures and dewpoints toward the
latest obs and trends, incorporating the ongoing ridge to valley
temperature split. Also, touched up the sky cover and fog
potential through the rest of the night. These have been sent to
the NDFD and web servers.

UPDATE Issued at 1040 PM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016

Showers have ended across the area and still expecting a good lull
until closer to dawn. High clouds have also been prevalent thanks
to moisture streaming in from Bonnie. As such, increased the low
temperatures a touch across the area. Updates have been sent.

UPDATE Issued at 830 PM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016

The last of the shower activity looks to exit the I-64 corridor in
the next hour. There should be a nice lull in the activity for
several hours following this, before a slight uptick occurs late,
as height falls ensue out ahead of a short wave trough moving
into the Ohio Valley/Great Lakes regions.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 350 PM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016

As of mid afternoon, the region remains on the western edge of a
ridge centered over the Atlantic that extends west into the Mid
Atlantic States and Mid Ohio Valley region. West of the area, a
trough extended from the Dakotas/Upper MS Valley region south
toward the Arklatex region. In addition, a couple of rather weak
shortwave troughs were moving from the MS Valley region toward the
Lower OH Valley and Great Lakes region. TD TWO continues to inch
closer to the South Carolina coastline late this afternoon.

Tonight into Sunday, the trough is expected to approach the Great
Lakes on Ohio Valley region and lead to a bit of height falls late
tonight. In addition, the upper level system associated with TD
TWO is expected to be drawn northwest inland of the Carolinas/GA
in response to the trough passing to the north. However, the model
consensus does not pick up or merge it with this upper trough and
this upper level disturbance should meander over the Southeast
through the end of the period. Meanwhile, the shortwave generally
passing north of the area through the Great lakes and toward the
Northeast by the end of the period should send a cold front toward
the region late in the period.

Very isolated convection has developed so far this afternoon and
recent trends point toward much of the cu field having mixed out.
In addition, this mixing has brought dewpoints back down into the
lower 60s is several locations. Recent short term model runs such
as as the HRRR have less convection this evening across the area
and this seems very reasonable given the recent trends. With that
in mind, we have isolated chances through early evening across
central and eastern locations and scattered chances across the
west closer to the slowly approaching wave and boundary.

With the loss of daytime heating, the convection should generally
dissipate around sunset this evening, if not before. A stray
shower or two cannot be ruled out in the warm sector overnight.
Valley fog will again be a threat, especially if clouds can
scatter out for a while. The few locations that received rain may
also experience fog.

Daytime heating and the wave passing by to the north and
northwest as well as the boundary approaching should lead to
isolated to scattered convection on Sunday. The threat for
convection will linger into Sunday evening, but wane around or
shortly after sunset with the loss of daytime heating. Fog should
again develop in the valleys on Sunday night and where rain
occurs on Sunday.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 234 PM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016

Confidence has increased that we will see a longer stretch of dry
weather from Monday through Wednesday night.  A cold front will be
slipping southeast to start the day on Monday, with perhaps a few
pop up showers possible along the boundary before it departs
southeast by midday. High pressure will then center itself over the
area late Monday through Tuesday. Slightly less humidity will also
be seen through the early portion of the week making for a fairly
pleasant memorial day and Tuesday.  By Wednesday, moisture starts to
return as we see return flow kick in.  However, still missing a
trigger for convection through Wednesday afternoon so coverage will
remain very sparse. Best chances may be for convection to form along
a ridge axis, but may still see a weak mid level cap preventing
convection from getting organized or seeing much thunder. Any
convection will diminish Wednesday evening setting the stage for a
quiet night. The period of more tranquil weather will likely come to
an end by Thursday as a shortwave trough pushes a frontal boundary
into the Ohio river valley. Return flow should increase ahead of
this front bring ample moisture into the region. This coupled with
forcing aloft should allow for increased coverage in showers and
storms by Thursday evening. Still a ways out, but there may be just
enough shear in place to support a low end severe event for the
area. Still plenty of time for this to evolve, but since it may be
the most noteworthy thing in the extended, probably worth
mentioning. The boundary may stall somewhere in the region for the
rest of the week, keeping the weather unsettled, but confidence is
low on placement of the boundary pending the convection on Thursday.
Regardless, will carry chance pops through the remainder of the
forecast period.

Overall temperatures will remain mild with highs into the 80s each
day and lows in the 60s.  We could see some lows into the 50s Monday
night and Tuesday night with the slightly less humid airmass.
However, that won`t be the case later in the week as humidity


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)

Current VFR conditions may give way to some MVFR fog at SME between
09 and 12z, but most of the other TAF sites should stay fog free.
Do expect any IFR conditions to mainly be restricted to the
deeper river valleys. Additionally, a few showers may be seen
towards dawn, with better convective potential initiating Sunday
afternoon, though still too sparse - predictive-wise to include in
any TAF aside from SJS. Look for winds to remain light, at around
5 kts or less, through the period.


.JKL Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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