000
FXUS63 KJKL 140855
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
455 AM EDT Sun Apr 14 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A passing disturbance and descending weak boundary may bring
  isolated showers and storms to parts of the area later tonight
  and again on Monday.

- Well above normal temperatures will be in place over the area
  through Thursday, with readings peaking in the upper 70s to mid
  80s each day, or about 10 to 15 degrees above normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 455 AM EDT SUN APR 14 2024

08Z sfc analysis shows Kentucky between a large area of low
pressure to the north and high pressure over the Deep South. The
high has helped to dry the area out, settled the winds, and also
kept the skies clear for most of the night. As a result, any fog
has been mostly kept at bay while a rather large ridge to valley
temperature split developed. Accordingly, readings vary from
around 40 degrees in the most sheltered spots to the mid 50s for
the more open areas and on hills. Meanwhile, dewpoints are down in
the mid to upper 40s.

The models, and their individual ensemble suites, are still in
pretty good agreement aloft through the short term portion of the
forecast. They all depict Kentucky between the larger scale
features of ridging to the southwest, a deep trough well to the
northeast, and another closed low one moving through the Four
Corners region later today and tonight. This will keep slightly
northwest flow going at mid levels over the state with the
periodic passing of energy impulses. Today, one slides past
through the Tennessee Valley while another moves by to the north -
closer to that large trough. More energy passes later Monday, but
still mainly targets areas south of eastern Kentucky. Given the
small model spread, the NBM was used as the starting point for the
grids along the addition of terrain based adjustments for
temperatures still this morning and to a lesser extent tonight
into Monday morning.

Sensible weather features the continuation of our warm up today
through Monday - and beyond. While most places stay dry during
this period, there will be a chance for some convection later
tonight and again on Monday as a boundary settles in from the
north. Return flow moisture will help to provide energy for storms
later Monday but most models have only spotty coverage. However,
conditionally, any storms that are able to develop could become
strong and organized given good venting aloft and CAPE of 500 to
800 J/kg. The limiting factor seems to be the focusing mechanism
for triggering convective initialization - keeping confidence low
at this time. For tonight, a layer of lower clouds will likely
limit the radiational cooling and temperature differences
compared to this past night.

The main adjustments to the NBM starting point were focused on
terrain based adjustments for temperatures early this morning and
a bit tonight. Did also tweak the PoPs higher late tonight and on
Monday, more in line with the higher resolution CAMs/latest HRRR.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 443 AM EDT SUN APR 14 2024

An active pattern on tap in the extended portion of the forecast.
The large scale upper level pattern will start off with an extensive
trough of low pressure taking shape over the west central Plains
Monday night. A quasistationary boundary will extended eastward from
an area of surface low pressure over the west central Plains, across
the mid-Mississippi and Ohio Valleys, and out to the Mid-Atlantic
area of the east coast. Showers and storms will fire all along this
boundary, as warm, moist air from the Gulf of Mexico surges
northward and interact with the front. This pattern is expected to
shift eastward with time, as the Plains trough strengthens and
begins moving eastward and then northeastward by Tuesday night. The
GFS, ECMWF, GFS Ensembles, and WPC solutions all are in general
agreement with the large scale pattern and its evolution.

The first round of rain should be confined to areas mainly along and
north of the Mountain Parkway, as the front moves slowly north. As
the parent low continue to develop, it will move into the southern
and eastern Great Lakes on Wednesday. As it does so, the surface
cold front associated with the system will move steadily across the
Ohio and Tennessee Valleys Wednesday and Wednesday night. Widespread
showers and scattered thunderstorms will fire all along the front,
and will move through our area. A few storms could become strong
with gusty winds, frequent lightning, and locally heavy rainfall.
The initial low and surface front will move off to the east of our
area on Thursday. After a brief lull in precip part of Thursday,
another area of low pressure, and its surface cold front, will move
in from the west on Friday, and will bring more rounds of showers
and a few storms to eastern Kentucky late Thursday through Friday.
This round of rain will gradually taper off Friday night through
Sunday, and should be out of the area by Sunday morning, as the
system pushes off to our east.

Temperatures will be quite warm the first few days of the extended,
as we will be firmly entrenched in the warm sector of an eastward
moving cyclone. With increasing southerly flow spreading across the
region, temperatures could climb as high as the upper 70s and lower
80s Tuesday through Thursday. After the first system moves through
on Thursday, winds will shift to the west for a short time, and will
allow cooler air to temporarily overspread the area, leading to much
cooler temperatures Friday and Saturday. In fact, daytime highs on
those two days could be 10 to 20 degrees cooler than what we see
Tuesday through Thursday. Nightly lows will only fall into the 50s
and 60s the first half of the period, before falling into the upper
30s to mid 40s Friday night and Saturday night, as much cooler air
spills into the region behind the departing second area of low
pressure.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
ISSUED AT 150 AM EDT SUN APR 14 2024

VFR conditions prevail through the TAF period. Winds will be light
and variable at the sfc through the night, though southwesterly
LLWS of up to 40 kts develops toward 08Z/Sunday and persists
through 13Z. Sfc winds then increase out of the southwest at 10
to 15 kts with some gusts to around 20 kts - continuing through
dusk before diminishing again.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...VORST/GREIF