Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KJKL 250031
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
731 PM EST WED DEC 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 716 PM EST WED DEC 24 2014

HEAVIEST SHOWERS AND WINDS ARE NOW HEADING EAST OF THE REGION. SOME
WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS ARE LESS ARE STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS...BUT OTHERWISE...THINGS SEEM TO BE DYING DOWN. WENT
AHEAD AND UPDATED THE SHORT TERM POPS BASED ON THE LATEST RADAR
TRENDS. ALSO UPDATED POPS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BASED BOTH ON
THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS UPSTREAM...AND THE LATEST HIRES MODEL DATA.
THIS ADDED ISOLATED CHANCES BACK INTO THE CWA DURING THE FIRST HALF
OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...BUT ALSO BUMPED SCATTERED SHOWERS BACK
DOWN TO ISOLATED COVERAGE DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT.
INCORPORATED THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA FOR TEMPS...DEW
POINTS...AND WINDS...INTO THE NEAR TERM FORECAST...BUT THESE
PARAMETERS SEEM TO BE IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 352 PM EST WED DEC 24 2014

SURFACE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY ALIGNED FROM FLEMINGSBURG TO BOONEVILLE
TO BARBOURVILLE. A SOLID LINE OF INTENSE SHOWERS HAS FORMED ALONG THE
BOUNDARY...WITH WIND GUSTS RANGING FROM 35 TO 50 MPH WITHIN THE LINE
FOR MOST LOCATIONS. MOST OF THESE WINDS ARE LASTING LESS THAN 10
MINUTES BEFORE DIMINISHING. WILL LET THE CURRENT WIND ADVISORY
HEADLINES RIDE THROUGH THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR AT
LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER. THE LINE WILL EXIT EASTERN KENTUCKY
BY AROUND 6 PM.

THERE WILL BE A LULL IN THE ACTION THIS EVENING...BEFORE THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH AND PROVIDES A RENEWED...BUT OVERALL
SMALLER CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. ICE CONTINUES TO LOOK
MARGINAL ALOFT...AND THE LOW LEVELS ARE FORECAST TO NOT COOL OFF
QUITE ENOUGH FOR SNOW...SO WILL ONLY MAINTAIN A SMALL CHANCE FOR
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 2500 FEET.

CLOUDS WILL LINGER AROUND THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF CHRISTMAS
DAY...BEFORE BREAKING UP FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST IN THE
AFTERNOON...AS RIDGING BUILDS IN. THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE MOSTLY
CLEAR...WITH VALLEYS LIKELY DIPPING INTO THE MID 20S AT LEAST.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM EST WED DEC 24 2014

MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH DY4...SUNDAY. THEREAFTER
MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE ENOUGH THAT CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST WANES
CONSIDERABLY THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD. ONE TREND MODELS
DO APPEAR TO AGREE ON HOWEVER IS AN INCREASINGLY AMPLIFIED UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN. MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MEAN...
GENERALLY DEEP AND BROAD WESTERN CONUS TOUGH WHICH OPENS UP INTO A
SOUTHWEST FLOW REGIME ALOFT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY REGION. MODELS
ADVERTISE A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES KICKING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST...
AND/OR BAJA. IF CORRECT THIS SHOULD KEEP OUR WEATHER GENERALLY
UNSETTLED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...AFTER A VERY WARM START TO THE EXTENDED WE
SHOULD EXPECT A GRADUALLY COLDER PATTERN WITH TIME. THIS COMBINED
WITH AN INCREASINGLY ACTIVE SOUTHERN STREAM MAY SET US UP FOR SOME
INTERESTING WEATHER BEFORE OR BY THE FIRST OF THE YEAR...BUT AGAIN
OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS LOW AFTER DY4. OUR FIRST SYSTEM WILL BE
WARM...WITH SHOWERS OVERSPREADING THE AREA AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH LATE THIS WEEKEND. THEREAFTER OUR WEATHER BECOME MORE
UNCERTAIN. THE 0Z ECMWF...WITH SOME SUPPORT FROM THE CANADIAN
SUGGESTS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA...KEEPING OUR WEATHER UNSETTLED THROUGH MONDAY. BUT
WHAT HAD BEEN A VERY CONSISTENT ECMWF HAS NOW COME IN WITH A FASTER
SECONDARY WAVE FOR MONDAY...SIMILAR TO THE GFS BUT NOT NEARLY AS
PROGRESSIVE. BOTTOM LINE IS THAT CONFIDENCE IS LOW THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED...WITH A MODEL BLEND HANGING ONTO SOME
LOWS POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD AND GRADUALLY COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 730 PM EST WED DEC 24 2014

A COLD FRONT HAS NOW PASSED EAST OF THE REGION...LEAVING BEHIND
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS...AND WINDS WHICH ARE SLOWLY
STARTING TO SUBSIDE. EXPECT RAIN TO COME TO AN END FROM WEST TO EAST
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. ANOTHER AREA OF ISOLATED
SHOWERS...CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL KY...COULD MAKE IT INTO THE TAF
SITES LATER TONIGHT...BUT SHOULD POSE LITTLE THREAT TO VISIBILITY.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST BETWEEN 15 AND 25KTS OVER THE NEXT HOUR
OR TWO...BUT SHOULD CONTINUE A DOWNWARD TREND AS WE HEAD INTO
OVERNIGHT. CIGS WILL REMAIN BKN TO OVC AND IN THE MVFR/FUEL
ALTERNATE RANGE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...BEFORE FINALLY MIXING OUT
DURING THE MORNING TOMORROW. OTHERWISE...THE TAF PERIOD FROM LATE
TONIGHT ON LOOKS TO BE QUITE CALM.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR KYZ044-050>052-
058>060-068-069-088-104-106>120.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JMW
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...RAY
AVIATION...JMW






USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.