Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 062000
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
300 PM EST Tue Dec 6 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 300 PM EST TUE DEC 6 2016

Cool damp weather to continue through out the afternoon and
evening hours today, although the ongoing rain is tapering off quite
a bit faster than previously forecast. The HRRR model has the last
of the rain out of eastern Kentucky by between 0 and 1Z this
evening. Based on the latest radar trends, and the HRRR data, have
decided to speed up precipitation evolution across eastern
Kentucky by several hours, with the last isolated showers or
patches of drizzle moving out of the area between 3 and 4Z. The
rain may actually end even faster than this, but did not feel
comfortable going completely dry as quickly as the HRRR is
currently suggesting. The latest model data has eastern Kentucky
experiencing a dry period of weather on Wednesday as the current
upper trough continues to move off well to our east. There could
be a brief period of light rain and snow showers Wednesday night
into early Thursday morning, as a second upper level low moves by
just to our south. At this time precipitation probabilities late
Wednesday into Thursday look be quite low, 15 to 24 percent on
average, so only isolated rain/snow showers are expected at this
time. With such a small chance of precipitation expected, decided
not to include any snowfall accumulations at this time.

Temperatures should be running slightly below normal tomorrow and
tomorrow night, with daytime highs on Wednesday in the 40s and
overnight lows ranging from the mid 20s to lower 30s. Tonights
lows should be at or slightly above normal due to the influence
of the expected widespread cloud cover. Tonights lows should be in
the low to mid 30s for most locations.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 505 AM EST TUE DEC 6 2016

The models are in good agreement concerning the amplified long
wave pattern in place across the CONUS during the middle of the
week. This regime will transition to more zonal flow through the
first part of the weekend, before amplifying once again through
early next week. There is more confidence in the smaller scale
features through Saturday. Confidence then drops off through the
rest of the extended portion of the forecast due to timing and
evolution differences.

A deep upper level low will shift east from Ontario to
Quebec through Thursday, enabling a short wave trough to swing
through the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley regions. This will bring
the coldest air thus far this season into eastern Kentucky. Winds
will shift to the northwest late Wednesday night into Thursday,
with some light snow, although impacts looks to be minimal given
the shallow depth of the moisture available and most of the better
upper level support passing by further north. Highs on Thursday
will be in the low to mid 30s at best, with temperatures likely
dropping through the afternoon.

Despite lingering cloud cover into Thursday night, lows will drop
off into the teens for most locations, with highs on Friday only
in the 20s. The center of the high pressure looks to pass through
the region Friday night into Saturday morning. Clouds should be a
bit thinner, as the flow becomes more zonal, allowing at least for
some mid teens, if not lower potentially.

Highs will recover back to the mid to upper 30s on Saturday. The
next system will affect the area from Sunday through Monday, as a
trough digs in across the Plains and then moves east, dragging a
cold front across the Commonwealth. The GFS is more progressive
with this system compared to its mean, with the ECMWF slower
still. Have therefore allowed for a slightly slower onset of the
precipitation compared to that of the blended guidance. Consequently,
this also resulted into hanging onto higher pops deeper into Monday
and beyond. Did allow for a small chance of a rain/snow mix for
early Sunday; however, given the likely slower trend, any
foreseeable impacts look too low confidence to mention at this
point. Temperatures will be moderating back closer to normal
through early next week, with highs back near the 50 degree mark
by Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 1232 PM EST TUE DEC 6 2016

Complex TAF forecast today and tonight. Widespread rain showers
will continue to move across eastern Kentucky through 21 or 22Z,
before tapering off to scattered and then isolated showers between
23Z today and around 4Z tonight. Patchy drizzle will be possible
behind the back edge of the rain showers this evening and tonight.
Conditions at the TAF sites will vary from IFR to MVFR depending
on the intensity of the rain. Widespread MVFR conditions are not
expected to set in until after 5Z tonight. The clouds will be slow
to exit the area, so BKN to OVC CIGS will be possible through
around 13Z tomorrow. Winds will continue to shift from the
southwest to northwest over the next several hours with sustained
values at around 10 mph.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...AR



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