Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 161934
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
234 PM EST Mon Jan 16 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 200 PM EST MON JAN 16 2017

Hourly weather grids have been freshened up based on recent
satellite and observation trends. The warm front continues to
lift northeast across the area and temperatures have climbed into
the 60s in many locations and into the upper 60s in some
locations. Some showers should encroach on the region shortly
after sunset.

UPDATE Issued at 1120 AM EST MON JAN 16 2017

Hourly grids were updated for the lingering fog on some of the
eastern ridgetops and to account for the light showers that are
moving through Northeast KY and into the Big Sandy Region. Current
satellite imagery shows an area of clearing over northern and
central parts of the area in which some locations are experiencing
their first sunshine in several days as the area has been in the
proximity of the frontal zone since late last week. This area is
not that large and should be short lived in any given location as
those areas likely will fill in with cumulus or more mid and high
clouds will move back in on southwest flow. The warm front is
lifting north across the area and many locations should reach the
60s this afternoon. Hourly grids were also updated based on recent
observations.

UPDATE Issued at 553 AM EST MON JAN 16 2017

The fog has been fairly erratic and therefore did keep the SPS
going given the uncertainty in the valley locales. Some of the
sites to the south have already seen wholesale improvements and
would think this will be the story through the morning. No major
changes needed this update.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 330 AM EST MON JAN 16 2017

Surface analysis shows high pressure has moved east and is parked
along the Mid Atlantic Coast this morning. That said, the winds
are generally out of the northeast and east this hour. The fog is
fairly sporadic this morning. therefore do not see a need for a
NPW this morning, but will keep the SPS going at this point. Today
the quasi stationary front is expected to lift north through the
day and bring unseasonably warm air mass into the region.
Temperatures are expected to climb into the mid and upper 60s in
near the TN border and this will lead to near record high
temperatures. Also some of the short term guidance and even the
lower resolution guidance would suggest showers form near the warm
front. Therefore kept some mostly isolated POPs nearer the
boundary.

Tonight all eyes toward low pressure across Central Oklahoma this
morning. There is good agreement on this vertically stacked system
ejecting into the Upper Midwest through the night. A trialing cold
front will slowly press east along with jet energy. The first
part of this will be upper level jet dynamics punch into the
region, as left exit region comes through the Ohio Valley leading
to divergence aloft. This will induce a moderate 850mb jet
approaching 60 knots by early Tuesday morning. These elements will
lead to deep layer moderate to strong omega seen in the time
heights, as mid to upper level short waves ride the flow into the
region. Therefore could not argue with CAT POPs as we move toward
dawn hours on Tuesday morning. Right now best axis of precip is
lining up in areas generally along and north of the Hal Rogers
Parkway. Overall amounts will be around a quarter to three tenths
of an inch through the morning. That said, the dynamics are such
that a few rumbles of thunder would be possible and this lines up
with best MUCAPE and SPC.

Now this is a two part system as the cold front will lag behind
the initial mid and upper level dynamics. The front will approach
the region on Tuesday with band of precip moving through from west
to east through the afternoon. Did opt to go a bit lower QPF wise
for the far SE, given the better dynamics are early in the day
mainly north of the Hal Rogers Parkway. Either way did keep CAT
POPs given the chances of seeing measurable precip are reasonably
high. Also keep the slight thunder along the highest areas of
POPs through the day and again this seems to follow best areas of
MUCAPE.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 234 PM EST MON JAN 16 2017

Decent model agreement continues through the rest of the week and
into next weekend...leading to good forecast confidence.  Starting
off Wednesday, lots of moisture will be in place to lead to some
lingering drizzle, especially with moisture extending just above the
low level inversion.  Model soundings support cloud cover holding
through the day and this would likely keep highs in the 40s behind
the departing cold front.  High/mid clouds will already be on the
increase ahead of our next system Wednesday night. In fact, whatever
clearing we see will be short lived Wednesday night.  A shortwave
trough will then move across the region from Thursday afternoon into
early Friday morning. Good moisture and tremendous forcing/lift will
lead to widespread rain, especially for the Thursday night period.
As the system exits north on Friday, rain chances will diminish.
Shortwave ridging will slide across the area Friday night and
Saturday, providing a dry period.  This will also set the stage for
some sunshine on Saturday which will help boost temperatures well
into the 60s.  This will probably be our best chance at reaching the
highs on guidance for the whole week.  Clouds and rain chances will
limit temperatures the rest of the week, but we will stay well above
normal regardless.  A deeper storm system may develop by Sunday,
bringing rain chances back into the area once again.  Despite the
active weather, all of the systems seem progressive this week,
keeping any flooding concerns at bay.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 140 PM EST MON JAN 16 2017

As a warm front continues to advance north and east, vis and or
cig has improved to VFR in the warm sector. VFR should continue
until a shortwave trough and cold front begin to approach the area
tonight and into Tuesday. As the lower levels begin to saturate
again tonight as showers return, MVFR should return from northwest
to southeast between 2Z and 9Z. South to southeast winds should
remain on the light side through 6Z to 9Z, and then begin to
increase and veer to the southwest as the front approaches.
Thunderstorms will also be possible beginning around 9Z and then
lingering as late as 22Z in the far southeast as the front moves
in. Low level wind shear will be possible as winds aloft increase
ahead of the front and a LLJ increases after 6Z. However, this
threat will go away as the thunderstorm threat arrives.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...DJ
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...JP



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