Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 191447
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1047 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1047 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

UPDATED THE FORECAST TO BETTER REFLECT CURRENT CONDITIONS AND MODEL
TRENDS. ONLY MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO THE TEMPERATURES AND
HUMIDITIES. THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 730 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

DRIZZLE HAS ENDED FOR THE MOST PART...BUT LOW CLOUDS REMAIN. HAVE
UPDATED THE FORECAST BASED ON LATEST OBS...WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE TO THE OVERALL FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

MOISTURE TRAPPED IN UPSLOPE FLOW UNDER AN INVERSION WAS KEEPING
CLOUDS AND DRIZZLE IN THE AREA OVERNIGHT. AS THE INVERSION LOWERS...
THE MOISTURE BEARING LAYER WILL BECOME MORE AND MORE SHALLOW. THIS
WILL EVENTUALLY PUT AN END TO DRIZZLE AND ALLOW CLOUDS TO BREAK UP
DURING THE DAY. HIGH TEMPS TODAY WILL BE DEPENDENT ON CLOUDS BREAKING
UP. HAVE HELD CLOSE TO MOS VALUES. ACTUAL READINGS COULD VARY DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING OF CLEARING.

TONIGHT WILL START OUT MOSTLY CLEAR WITH GOOD RADIATING CONDITIONS.
WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL KICK IN DURING THE NIGHT AND CONTRIBUTE TO
RIDGE/VALLEY TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES. HIGH CLOUDS WILL LOWER AND
THICKEN LATE IN THE NIGHT...AND MAY BEGIN TO IMPEDE SURFACE COOLING.
AT THIS POINT...HAVE USED VALLEY LOW TEMPS NEAR EXPECTED AFTERNOON
DEW POINTS. THIS MAY BE COLD ENOUGH FOR A BIT OF FROST IN THE
COLDEST VALLEYS.

WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE ON MONDAY AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE OHIO VALLEY. THE CLOUD/MOISTURE BEARING LAYER WILL
LOWER DURING THE DAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A PERIOD OF VIRGA
DURING THE DAY. BY EVENING...THE MOIST LAYER MAKES IT LOW ENOUGH FOR
A THREAT OF SHOWERS IN OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

A PERSISTENT TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL BE THE HIGHLIGHT OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...KEEPING TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL AND
PROVIDING THE POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER FROM
MONDAY EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
INTO MID WEEK...SO CONFIDENCE REMAINS FAIRLY HIGH THROUGH THE
EXTENDED.

THE PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH AN ADVANCING SHORTWAVE TROUGH INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY ON MONDAY EVENING/NIGHT. UNLIKE THE PAST FEW
SYSTEMS...THIS TROUGH LOOKS TO BE MORE MOISTURE STARVED...ESPECIALLY
IN THE LOWER LEVELS. THUS...NOT AS CONVINCED WE WILL SEE MUCH OUT OF
THIS FEATURE. HOWEVER...ENOUGH MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS THERE TO AT
LEAST SUPPORT A ISOLATED SHOWER OR SPRINKLE GOING INTO 0Z TUESDAY. A
STRONGER VORT MAX WILL DROP SOUTH OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES LATE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY...TAKING AIM ON EASTERN KENTUCKY. GIVEN THE
MODELS TENDENCY THE LAST FEW SYSTEMS TO DOWNPLAY THE STRENGTH OF
THESE FEATURES...OPTED TO GO A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE ON THE POPS AS
THE DEGREE OF FORCING ALOFT SHOULD ALLOW FOR DECENT
COVERAGE...ESPECIALLY HEADING INTO TUESDAY. BEST CHANCES WILL RESIDE
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE AREA...WITH SOUTHWEST ZONES POSSIBLY
STAYING DRY. THE INITIAL VORT MAX WILL CREATE AN UPPER LEVEL CUT OFF
LOW OVER THE EAST COAST...KEEPING THE AREA ON THE EDGE OF THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WITH THE POTENTIAL OF ADDITIONAL VORT
MAXES DROPPING SOUTH ALONG THE BACK EDGE OF THIS TROUGH...THE THREAT
FOR SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON HOW FAR WEST ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL REACH.
THUS...RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN LOW. WHILE MODELS START TO DIVERGE A
BIT ON HOW QUICKLY THE TROUGH WILL DEPART BY THURSDAY...THE GENERAL
CONSENSUS IS THAT CONDITIONS SHOULD DRY OUT WITH A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. IT DOES LOOK LIKE THE
POTENTIAL FOR A GORGEOUS STRETCH OF FALL WEATHER AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT
WEEKEND AS RIDGING BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 730 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

SKIES WERE CLOUDY AT TAF ISSUANCE WITH MOSTLY MVFR CONDITIONS...AND
A SMATTERING OF VFR. CEILINGS SHOULD BREAK UP THIS MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON... LEAVING VFR TO LAST THROUGH THE NIGHT IN MOST LOCATIONS.
HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF THE BREAK-UP IS LOW. FOG IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN VALLEYS CONTAINING RIVERS AND LARGE STREAMS
LATE TONIGHT...RESULTING IN LOCALIZED IFR.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJ
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...JMW
AVIATION...HAL





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