Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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203
FXUS63 KJKL 030707
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
307 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 307 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

COLD FRONT HAS NOW SLIPPED INTO SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY AND WILL
CONTINUE TO SLIP JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE KENTUCKY BY DAYBREAK. SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOP ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THIS
BOUNDARY...AND MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD ALSO BE SHIFTING
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING. MEANWHILE...A SURFACE
TROUGH WILL SLIP SOUTH INTO NORTHERN KENTUCKY THIS MORNING AND
STALL OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF AN ISOLATED
SHOWER ACROSS NORTHERN AND NORTHEAST KENTUCKY THROUGH THE DAY
TODAY. FARTHER SOUTH...NOT MUCH SUPPORT FOR SHOWERS ONCE THE FRONT
EXITS SOUTH AND EAST...SO WILL ACTUALLY SQUEEZE IN A MUCH NEEDED
DRY DAY FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. TONIGHT...NOT MUCH
CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH JUST INCHING EAST
AND SOUTH OVERNIGHT. THUS...WILL MAINTAIN SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL KICK THINGS OUT AS MID
LEVEL RIDGING SPREADS ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. THIS WILL
TEMPORARILY END ANY SHOWER CHANCES. HOWEVER...THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS KENTUCKY LATE WEDNESDAY
MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. IMPRESSIVE FORCING
WITH THE FRONT SHOULD YIELD A BROKEN TO PERHAPS WIDESPREAD LINE OF
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE INSTABILITY IS
WEAK...FREEZING LEVELS SHOULD BE COMING DOWN WITH THE FRONT...SO
SOME LOW TOPPED THUNDERSTORMS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. WITH THE
FREEZING LEVELS ONLY ABOUT 5.5KFT...CERTAINLY POSSIBLE WE COULD
SEE ANY STORMS PRODUCING SOME PEA SIZE HAIL. WILL INCLUDE THE
MENTION OF HAIL IN THE HWO THIS MORNING.

AS FAR AS TEMPERATURES GO...TODAY WILL BE MUCH COOLER AS CLOUDS
WILL LIKELY STAY IN PLACE WITH THE TROUGH AXIS. WILL ALSO GO
SLIGHTLY WARMER WITH LESS VALLEY/RIDGE DISPARITY FOR TONIGHT WITH
ANTICIPATED CLOUD COVER. TOMORROW...WE MAY BE ABLE TO WARM UP
BRIEFLY BY MIDDAY BEFORE THE COLD FRONT BRINGS FALLING
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS ALONG WITH
THE RAIN SHOWERS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 407 PM EDT MON MAY 2 2016

UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW WILL BE SPINNING ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES TO BEGIN THE PERIOD WITH A WAVE RIDING THROUGH THE REGION.
WHILE A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHEAST BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING. THIS WILL AID IN KICKING OFF SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A FEW STORMS...AS COLD CORE 500 MB CLOSED LOW WILL SLIDE
SOUTH STEEPING LAPSE RATES AND LOWERING HEIGHTS. THEREFORE RIGHT
NOW WILL KEEP WITH BETTER POPS OVERALL THROUGH THE PERIOD ON
WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BECOME MORE VERTICALLY
STACKED AS CLOSED LOW CONTINUES TO DEEPEN. SPOKES OF VORTICITY
WILL WRAP AROUND THIS UPPER LOW AS IT SLOWLY SLIDES SOUTH AND EAST
AND THEREFORE KEEP THE REGION UNSETTLED UNTIL EARLY FRIDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SLOW PROGRESS EAST FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AND WE
SHOULD SEE A DRY STRETCH AT THAT POINT. SOME RIDGE RIDING UPPER
LEVEL WAVES AND BAROCLINIC ZONE MAY LEAD TO SOME SLIGHT CHANCE
STORMS IN THE FAR NORTH AND NORTHEAST BY SUNDAY AND SHOWERS SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

OVERALL TEMPS WILL START OFF WELL BELOW NORMAL WITH LOWS DROPPING
INTO THE UPPER 30S IN A FEW SPOTS THURSDAY MORNING AND ONLY
CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 50S FOR THURSDAY. HOWEVER SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AND RISING HEIGHTS WILL LEAD TO RISING TEMPS INTO THE MID
TO UPPER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 209 AM EDT TUE MAY 3 2016

A MIX OF MVFR/IFR CIGS AND VISBYS WILL BE SEEN...PRIMARILY OVER
SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY THROUGH THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOME
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENTS ARE POSSIBLE LATE...BUT STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON HOW QUICKLY WE SEE THESE IMPROVEMENTS. CLOUDS WILL
HOLD TOUGH THROUGH TUESDAY...BUT CIGS SHOULD LIFT TO VFR AREAWIDE
BY EARLY AFTERNOON. CIGS MAY COME BACK DOWN TO MVFR OVERNIGHT
TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...KAS



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