Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 271936
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
336 PM EDT MON OCT 27 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 112 PM EDT MON OCT 27 2014

WILL UPDATE NDFD FOR LATEST HOURLY TRENDS...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES ARE PLANNED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1047 AM EDT MON OCT 27 2014

UPDATED NDFD TO ADD MORE CLOUDS ACROSS THE EASTERN PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS AN AREA OF SC IS
MOVING EAST THROUGH THE AREA. THE LOW CLOUDS EXTEND ALL THE WAY
SOUTH TO MIDDLESBORO. BASED ON CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS THE CLOUD
COVER WILL DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON. RECORD OR NEAR RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES STILL LOOK ON TARGET FOR THIS AFTERNOON. THE RECORD OF
81 AT LONDON IS IN JEOPARDY BUT THE RECORD OF 83 AT JACKSON WILL BE
MORE DIFFICULT TO REACH.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 648 AM EDT MON OCT 27 2014

A FEW MORE CLOUDS PASSING ACROSS NORTHERN KENTUCKY THIS MORNING THAN
PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED...SO OTHER THAN A BRIEF INCREASE IN CLOUDS
THIS MORNING...REST OF FORECAST REMAINS IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM EDT MON OCT 27 2014

RIDGE AXIS WILL PROGRESS EAST ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY TODAY WITH
SOUTHERLY WINDS TRANSPORTING A VERY UNSEASONABLY WARM AIRMASS INTO
THE REGION. UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...TEMPERATURES WILL SOAR INTO
THE LOWER 80S BY THIS AFTERNOON. WITH RECORDS IN THE LOWER
80S...THESE WILL VERY MUCH BE IN PLAY TODAY. THE RECORD AT LONDON IS
81...WHILE THE RECORD AT JACKSON IS 83. MODELS CONTINUE TO BE TOO
AGGRESSIVE IN GETTING THE HIGHER MOISTURE INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY. WITH
TOO MUCH OF A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT TO TH WINDS TODAY...IT WILL BE HARD
TO ACHIEVE DEWPOINTS MUCH INTO THE 50S. IN FACT...DEWPOINTS IN SOME
AREAS ARE STILL IN THE 30S THIS MORNING. GIVEN THE SLOW
INCREASE...HAVE OPTED TO GO MUCH LOWER THAN GUIDANCE ON
DEWPOINTS...PUTTING RELATIVE HUMIDITIES DOWN TO AROUND 25 PERCENT OR
LOWER AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE WE SHOULD HAVE A BIT MORE WIND
TODAY...WE SHOULD STAY LOW ENOUGH TO PREVENT ANY SIGNIFICANT FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS. GIVEN THE DRY AIR IN PLACE...WE SHOULD SEE ANOTHER
GOOD RIDGE/VALLEY SPLIT TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES QUICKLY FALLING
BACK INTO THE 40S IN THE VALLEYS BY LATE EVENING. RIDGES SHOULD STAY
CLOSER TO THE 60 DEGREE MARK OVERNIGHT.

ON TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY.
CLOUDS SHOULD BE FAIRLY MINIMAL TO START THE DAY...SO IT LOOKS LIKE
TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM FAIRLY QUICKLY ONCE AGAIN. RECORDS MAY AGAIN
BE IN JEOPARDY...WITH THE RECORD AT JACKSON 78...AND LONDON IS 84
(MAY NOT GET THIS HIGH). SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE
INTO CENTRAL KENTUCKY BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON...AND MARCH INTO
EASTERN KENTUCKY BY 00Z. GOOD CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND MODEST
FORCING ALOFT SHOULD YIELD GOOD COVERAGE. THE ONLY QUESTION AT PLAY
IS HOW FAR EAST PRECIPITATION REACHES PRIOR TO 00Z. AT THIS
TIME...HIGHEST PROBABILITIES WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE WEST
(CATEGORICAL)...WITH A TIGHT GRADIENT TO THE EAST...TO JUST SLIGHT
CHANCE. GIVEN THE WARMING AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AND DEWPOINTS POOLING
TO AROUND 60 JUST ALONG OR AHEAD OF THE FRONT...MAY GENERATE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY TO WARRANT A MARGINAL CHANCE FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS.
SEEMS TO BE PLENTY OF UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR IN PLACE. THUS...WILL
INCLUDE A MENTION IN THE HWO THAT A FEW STORMS COULD CONTAIN DAMAGING
WINDS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 336 PM EDT MON OCT 27 2014

A FAST ZONAL FLOW REGIME EARLY IN THE PERIOD WILL BECOME AMPLIFIED
AS A SHARP TROUGH PLOWS SOUTHWARD INTO THE EASTERN CONUS FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. WHILE THE TROUGH IS PROGRESSIVE AND RIDGING IS PROGGED TO
ALREADY BUILD INTO THE REGION BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY...THE TROUGH WILL
BE DEEP AND COLD AND LIKELY BRING A KILLING FREEZE SUNDAY MORNING.

THE FRONT ADDRESSED IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE TO OUR
SOUTHEAST BY WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH A FEW LINGERING MORNING SHOWERS
POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY. COOL HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS BEHIND
THE FRONT INTO THURSDAY BEFORE THE NEXT RATHER MOISTURE STARVED
FRONT ENTERS THE PICTURE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. MODELS ARE
DRIER TODAY THAN YESTERDAY AND WE BACKED OFF ON THE POPS A BIT WITH
ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS NOW IN THE FORECAST ON
FRIDAY...LINGERING INTO FRIDAY EVENING ALONG THE VIRGINIA BORDER.
THERE STILL COULD BE A FEW SNOWFLAKES MIXING IN FRIDAY EVENING OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN...BUT LOW LEVEL FLOW QUICKLY GOES FROM WEST TO
NORTH...SO UPSLOPE COMPONENT IS NOT IDEAL TO SQUEEZE OUT THE MEAGER
MOISTURE LEFT IN THE COLUMN BY FRIDAY NIGHT.

A 1030 MB HIGH IS THEN PROGGED TO BUILD ACROSS THE OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEYS OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL BE CENTERED OVERHEAD
SATURDAY NIGHT ACCOMPANIED BY LIGHT WINDS...CLEAR SKIES AND A VERY
DRY AIRMASS (DEWPOINTS IN THE 20S). AS SUCH...CONFIDENCE IS
INCREASING THAT WE WILL SEE A KILLING FREEZE SATURDAY NIGHT WITH OUR
NORMALLY COLDER LOCATIONS POSSIBLY DROPPING AS LOW AS THE MID 20S.
THE MODERATING TREND WILL THEN BEGIN ON SUNDAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
ENGAGES IN ADVANCE OF WHAT WILL BE OUR NEXT SYSTEM POISED TO BRING
INCREASING RAIN CHANCES BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 112 PM EDT MON OCT 27 2014

PATCHES OF LOW CLOUD..GENERALLY BETWEEN 2500 AND 4000 FEET...HAVE
BEEN MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON. THIS PATCHY LOW CLOUD WILL BE DECREASING THROUGH THE DAY
WHILE THERE WILL BE SOME INCREASE IN HIGH CIRRUS CLOUD. OTHER THAN A
FEW ISOLATED MVFR CEILINGS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE AREA ON TUESDAY...BUT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY OR UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SBH
SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...SBH




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