Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 141156
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
656 AM EST Sun Jan 14 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 656 AM EST SUN JAN 14 2018

Single digit temperatures continue across much of eastern Kentucky
early this morning, with the exception being in the valleys of far
eastern Kentucky where low clouds have hung tight through the
night and kept temperatures in the lower teens. Moisture should
be shallow enough to negate anything other than a stray flurry or
two, so will maintain a dry forecast at this time. Low clouds
should gradually break up this morning in the higher terrain as
high clouds stream in from the west through the day.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 354 AM EST SUN JAN 14 2018

Low stratus across the Virginia and Tennessee borders will continue
to diminish as winds veer further east/northeast this morning and
drier air filters in courtesy of a 1040 mb surface ridge. Despite
some light downsloping west of the higher terrain and meager warm
air advection/height rises, the combination of recent snowpack
and cyclonic flow underneath a residual cold dome will only allow
for a warmup into generally the mid 20s this afternoon. Mostly
sunny skies early will be somewhat tainted by high clouds
streaming in from a lower Mississippi Valley shortwave trough, but
sunshine will nonetheless be abundant compared to yesterday.

A digging shortwave/upper low from Manitoba and western Ontario
riding through the upper Midwest and western Great Lakes will bring
thickening/lowering clouds overnight, complete with a minor uptick
in temperatures for Monday as its attendant surface low drags a
meager warm front across the Bluegrass region. This may bring a few
light snow showers Monday morning with accumulations of a tenth of
an inch or two not out of the question as upper support is further
enhanced by the left exit region of an upper jet streak. Any
precipitation should lift well north of Interstate 64 Monday
afternoon, prior to an arctic front plowing southeast toward eastern
Kentucky later in the afternoon. While better snow chances will hold
off until Monday evening/night, the Bluegrass region will again see
the best chances for an additional dusting to couple tenths of an
inch by dusk. With surface temperatures looking to warm into the mid
30s to near 40 Monday afternoon, could see a brief stint of some
rain mixing in. However, a relatively dry boundary layer will
undergo cooling due to wet-bulb effects as initial
precipitation/virga falls, therefore likely keeping the brunt of any
precipitation in the form of snow as the remainder of the
atmospheric column stays below freezing.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 400 AM EST SUN JAN 14 2018

The extended period of the forecast will feature very cold
temperatures and a good chance of accumulating snow at the
beginning of the period and much warmer temperatures and a good
chance for rain at the end of the period. The coldest period will
be from Tuesday through Wednesday, when temperatures will be in
the upper teens and 20s during the day, and mostly in the single
digits Tuesday night and Wednesday night. A gradual warm up should
begin to take place on Thursday, when highs are forecast to max
out in the lower 30s for most locations. The warming will continue
into the weekend, with highs on Friday expected to be in the low
to mid 40s for most locations, and in the 50s for Saturday. A fast
moving clipper type system will bring snow to eastern Kentucky
Monday night and Tuesday. Another area of low pressure may then
bring rain to the area Saturday night.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
ISSUED AT 656 AM EST SUN JAN 14 2018

Lingering MVFR ceilings at SJS and along the Virginia border will
break up this morning as any residual snow flurries come to an
end. VFR conditions will then hold in place today and tonight as
high pressure remains overhead, keeping veering northeasterly to
southeasterly winds at 5 knots or less. Clouds will lower and
thicken this evening through tonight with light snow showers
possible from SYM to points northwest by 12Z.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GUSEMAN
SHORT TERM...GUSEMAN
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...GUSEMAN


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