Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 230900
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
400 AM EST Thu Feb 23 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Friday)
Issued at 400 AM EST THU FEB 23 2017

Morning surface analysis showing surface high pressure parked off
the Carolina coast line. This is bringing some return flow to the
region with winds out of the SE to SW for most. The valley sites
have been able to decouple and the has lead to areas of dense fog
especially in locations that saw rain yesterday and/or nearer bodies
of water. Overall think the SPS will handle the situation, as we
could see improvements as high clouds move into the region. WV
loop does show a weak upper level wave moving east out of Missouri
this morning with weak mid to upper level QV convergence seen in
portions of southern Indiana and Northern Kentucky. This combined
with mid level moisture being transported from the Baja is
inducing a line of lower clouds to our NW, and this lines up well
with some of the short term guidance data. That said did keep
some isolated showers mainly north of the Mountain Parkway, but
think the instability is overdone for this afternoon in much of
the short term guidance. That said, did opt to remove thunder for
the afternoon and this also aligns with the SPC thinking at this
time. Clouds and potential for precip will keep temps in the low
70s for most which remains 20 degrees above normal for his time of
year.

All the focus will shift to the west, as deepening surface low and
upper level system takes shape across the Central Plains by
tonight. This dynamic system will begin to induce a LLJ out ahead
of the main system, but the valleys will still have a chance to
decouple. This could lead to some slight temp splits and perhaps
some patchy fog. However do think as low level inversion mixes out
the winds will begin to kick up early in the day Friday. Winds of
25 to 30 mph will be common in the afternoon across portions of
the Bluegrass and Lake Cumberland regions. Right now model
soundings suggest the driest air is not quite taped into, but this
will have to be looked at for brief window of fire weather
concerns Friday afternoon. Also this could lead to even higher
afternoon temperatures with many locales looking at upper 70s and
some even closing in on 80 degrees. These kind of temperatures
would shatter the current record high temperatures for Friday of
71 at JKL and 70 at LOZ. Based on model trends think the Friday
afternoon period will remain dry for most and therefore did slow
POPs from what the model blend produced.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 400 AM EST THU FEB 23 2017

Available shortly...

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM EST WED FEB 22 2017

The TAF period will be a complicated one with several dependent
variables to deal with. The period is beginning with some lower
stratus streaming across the Bluegrass and some high clouds mixed
in at times across the remainder of the region. Valley locations
that have cleared and decoupled are seeing widespread to areas of
dense fog. This will as usual be more dense in areas that saw
more rainfall yesterday and/or areas nearer bodies of water. The
TAF sites are currently not seeing any issues with most of the
ridge sites remaining mixed this hour. The only question at some
of the elevated sites will be does any fog actually advect in
toward dawn and right now will leave that thought out given low
confidence.

The next issue will be cloud cover overnight and just how much
are we going to see. The guidance is certainly struggling
initiation wise including much of the short term guidance, and
this is making for a challenging sky cover forecast. Right now
sticking close to previous forecast and given the HRRR which is
the best guidance right now has clouds developing toward dawn.
That said it does look like this will be in the low MVFR range at
this point. Winds will remain light through the period.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DJ
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...DJ



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