Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000
FXUS63 KJKL 252331
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
731 PM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 250 PM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015

UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE OH VALLEY. WITH HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATING THE LOCAL WEATHER WE HAVE SEEN CALM TO LIGHT
WINDS...WARM TEMPERATURES AND SUNNY SKIES. HIGH AND MID CLOUDS
STREAMING TOWARDS OUR AREA FROM LAST NIGHTS MD MS VALLEY MCS
SHOULD THIN AS THEY SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. WITH MOST CLOUD
LATE TONIGHT EXPECTED TO BE THIN AND HIGH...AND WITH CALM
WINDS...WILL ONCE AGAIN FORECAST SOME LOCALLY DENSE RIVER VALLEY
FOG AS LOWS DIP INTO THE 60S.

FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT THE FOCUS SHIFTS TO A WEAK SHORT WAVE
ROUNDING THE NORTHEAST PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE...AND A WEAK
SURFACE COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE DROPPING TOWARDS THE AREA. THE
TIMING AND IMPACT OF THIS IS UNCERTAIN...AND MODELS ARE PROVIDING
VARIOUS SOLUTIONS AND VARIOUS POTENTIAL RAIN CHANCES. GENERAL
TREND HAS BEEN TO DECREASE RAIN CHANCES AND SLOW DOWN THE
TIMING...ESPECIALLY FOR SUNDAY. WILL HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS ONLY IN THE EXTREME NORTH BY LATE IN THE DAY
SUNDAY...WITH THE SLIGHT CHANCE THEN EXTENDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE AREA DURING THE NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015

MODELS REMAIN VERY UNCERTAIN AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. GFS AND FOR
THE MOST PART ITS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS CONTINUE TO PAINT VERY LITTLE
PRECIPITATION OVER THE AREA AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS ITS
GROUND OVER THE REGION. MEANWHILE...JUST ABOUT EVERY OTHER SUITE OF
MODELS IS SHOWING A WAVE DIVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS AT A MINIMUM. HARD TO RESOLVE THE
DIFFERENCES THIS FAR OUT...AND WILL STAY TOWARDS A COMPROMISED
FORECAST FOR MONDAY GOING WITH 30 TO 40 POPS. HARD TO GO ANY HIGHER
OR LOWER GIVEN THE DIFFERENCES.

BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...NO REAL TRIGGERS FOR SHOWERS/STORMS
EXPECTED...SO IT LOOKS LIKE ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS WILL BE STRICTLY
TIED TO DAYTIME INSTABILITY WITH RAIN CHANCES REMAINING VERY LOW.
BEST CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE EXTENDED WILL COME THURSDAY AS A COLD
FRONT PRESSES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. MODELS ARE IN GENERALLY
BETTER AGREEMENT BY THURSDAY...SO WAS ABLE TO GO SLIGHTLY HIGHER
WITH THE RAIN CHANCES. WE SHOULD DRY OUT AS WE HEAD INTO FRIDAY AND
NEXT SATURDAY...AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WASHES OUT OR STALLS JUST TO
OUR SOUTHEAST AND HIGH PRESSURE NOSES INTO THE AREA.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE A TOUCH ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE
FALLING BACK TO SEASONABLE VALUES LATE IN THE WEEK IN THE WAKE OF
THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 731 PM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015

HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION IS MAKING FOR CALM AND MOSTLY
CLEAR CONDITIONS. THIS IS FOSTERING VFR CEILINGS ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THE CAVEAT IS THAT A CALM AND
CLEAR NIGHT CULTIVATES FOG FORMATION OVERNIGHT AND NEAR DOWN
HOURS ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS. GIVEN THAT LAST NIGHT MANY SITES
SAW AFFECTS FROM FOG AND LAMP GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INTRODUCE THE
IDEA TONIGHT...HAVE KEPT MVFR TO IFR VIS IN THE TAFS FOR
SME...LOZ...AND SJS. DID OPT TO BE MORE CAUTIOUS TONIGHT GIVEN
THAT ANY HIGH CLOUDS THAT COME IN COULD HELP SOME WHAT NEGATE THE
DROPS WE EXPERIENCED LAST NIGHT. OTHERWISE BRING SITES BACK TO
P6SM BY 13Z AND KEEP MOST SITES SCT100...BUT DID BRING BKN100 TO
SITE SYM. SOME WHAT BETTER STORM CHANCES EXIST MOSTLY PAST THE TAF
PERIOD AND AT THIS POINT ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES EITHER WAY. THEREFORE
OPTED TO KEEP ANY MENTION OUT OF SYM TAF AT THIS JUNCTURE. WINDS
THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT ALL SITES.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SBH
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...DJ



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