Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000
FXUS63 KJKL 270200
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1000 PM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1000 PM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

LATEST UPDATE IS ONCE AGAIN BLENDING LATEST OBS INTO THE OVERNIGHT
FORECAST...WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST AS A
WHOLE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 708 PM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

HAVE UPDATED FCST GRIDS TO ACCOMMODATE LATEST OBS...BUT WITH NO
SUBSTANTIAL CHANGE TO THE OVERALL FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

STRONG RIDGING CONTINUES TO HOLD OVER KENTUCKY TODAY YIELDING A
FAIRLY PLEASANT AFTERNOON FOR LATE AUGUST. EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS
CONTINUE TO TRANSPORT DRIER AIR INTO THE AREA FROM THE EAST...KEEPING
HUMIDITY LEVELS DOWN. WITH SKIES CLEAR TONIGHT...WE SHOULD SEE
ANOTHER NIGHT OF COOL TEMPERATURES WITH LOWS IN THE EASTERN VALLEYS
FALLING TO AROUND 60. AS IS TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...MORE
RIVER VALLEY FOG WILL OCCUR TONIGHT. A FAIRLY SIMILAR DAY IS EXPECTED
TOMORROW. HOWEVER...A WASHED OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DRIFT SOUTH
INTO NORTHERN KENTUCKY LATE IN THE DAY...AND COULD SPARK ISOLATED
SHOWERS OR STORMS. NOT MUCH FORCING WITH THIS FEATURE...SO COVERAGE
SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIMITED. ANY SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT DEVELOP SHOULD
DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF INSTABILITY TOMORROW EVENING...LEAVING A
ANOTHER DRY NIGHT. DEW POINTS WILL CREEP UP TOMORROW NIGHT AS THE
WASHED OUT BOUNDARY HELPS TO POOL A BIT HIGHER DEW POINTS. THUS...IF
WE CAN CLEAR THE CLOUDS OUT ENOUGH...WE COULD BE LOOKING AT A BIT
BETTER FOG POTENTIAL. LOWS WILL ALSO BE A TAD MILDER ONLY FALLING
INTO THE MID 60S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 PM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

THE PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LOOKS TO LOSE ITS GRIP ON THE REGION...AS A SLOW-
MOVING UPPER TROUGH/CLOSED LOW MOVES FROM THE PLAINS TO THE GREAT
LAKES THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND...BRINGING A RETURN OF MORE
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. THE UPPER
RIDGE WILL THEN BUILD BACK IN ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BECOMING MORE DIURNALLY
DRIVEN IN NATURE. WILL CONTINUE TO USE A GENERAL BLEND OF THE LATEST
GUIDANCE TO ACCOUNT FOR SMALL SCALE VARIABILITY.

ON THURSDAY...A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR THE THREAT OF A
FEW STORMS IN THE SOUTHWEST. FOR FRIDAY...THE BOUNDARY WILL GRADUALLY
LIFT NORTHEAST OF THE AREA AS A WARM FRONT...WITH HIGHS RETURNING TO
NEAR THE 90 DEGREE MARK. A FEW STORMS MAY POP ALONG THE BOUNDARY
ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE AREA DURING PEAK HEATING.
GENERALLY DRY WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FROM FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING...BEFORE THE UPPER TROUGH DRAWS CLOSER SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FROM
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH SEVERAL BOUTS OF HEALTHY
RAINS POSSIBLE AS PWATS INCREASE TO THE 1.8 TO 1.9 INCH RANGE. WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION THE POTENTIAL FOR AT LEAST SOME BANK FULL
CONDITIONS WITHIN SMALLER CREEKS AND STREAMS IN LOW LYING AREAS THIS
WEEKEND. HIGHS WILL BE KNOCKED BACK TO THE LOW TO MID 80S WITH ALL OF
THE CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION THREATENING.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL THEN REASSERT ITSELF INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH
WARMER TEMPERATURES RETURNING AND CONVECTION BECOMING MORE TIED TO
THE DIURNAL TRENDS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 733 PM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

FOG WILL AFFECT THE DEEPER VALLEYS AGAIN LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT SHOULD NOT AFFECT TAF SITES. OTHERWISE...VFR
WITH LIGHT WINDS IS EXPECTED.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...HAL





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