Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 141536
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1136 AM EDT MON APR 14 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1136 AM EDT MON APR 14 2014

A FEW UPDATES MADE TO THE FORECAST FOR TODAY. BASED ON THE LATEST
SURFACE OBS AND EXPECTED TRENDS...DECIDED TO LOWER TODAYS HOURLY AND
OVERALL HIGH TEMPERATURES BY 3 OR 4 DEGREES ACROSS THE BOARD. WITH
MOIST GROUND...STEADY WINDS...AND PERSISTENT OVERCAST CLOUD
COVER...DID NOT SEEM REASONABLE THAT PREVIOUS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S
AREA WIDE WERE REACHABLE. THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND MODEL
DATA...PARTICULARLY THE HRRR...SEEMED TO SUPPORT THE CURRENT POPS FOR
THE REST OF THE DAY. THE PRECIP CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE AREA
SEEMS TO HAVE A DISTINCT BACK EDGE THAT WILL BE THROUGH OUR AREA IN
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AFTER THAT IT APPEARS THAT WE WILL SEE A BREAK IN
THE ACTION UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING A COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA. WILL ALSO BE SENDING OUT UPDATED VERSIONS OF
THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY AND FREEZE WATCH. WINDS ACROSS THE AREA SO FAR
TODAY HAVE BEEN MEETING LAKE WIND CRITERIA AND THERE IS NO REASON TO
BELIEVE THIS WILL CEASE TO BE THE CASE THE REST OF THE DAY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 702 AM EDT MON APR 14 2014

NO UPDATE PLANNED THIS MORNING. LATEST HRRR HAS STUCK TO ITS SCENARIO
TODAY REGARDING SCATTERED LINE OF SHOWERS PUSHING ITS WAY ACROSS THE
AREA TODAY. THESE SHOWERS ARE JUST NOW WORKING INTO THE I-75
CORRIDOR...AND THE CURRENT FORECAST HAS THIS COVERED WELL. NOT SURE
IF WE WILL BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE OUT MUCH LIQUID WITH SUCH DRY AIR
ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE AREA...BUT WE COULD SQUEEZE OUT A HUNDREDTH OR
TWO THROUGH THE MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM EDT MON APR 14 2014

THERE ARE SEVERAL FEATURES OF INTEREST THIS MORNING UPSTREAM. A WEAK
MID LEVEL TROUGH IS NOW MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN OHIO RIVER VALLEY
WITH A SURFACE LOW PUSHING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS INITIAL
TROUGH HAD BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR AN ORGANIZED AREA OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS AS IT PUSHED INTO WESTERN KENTUCKY OVERNIGHT. AS THIS
ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST THIS MORNING IT WILL ENCOUNTER A MUCH
MORE STABLE AND DRY AIR MASS AND WILL QUICKLY WEAKEN. HRRR HAS A GOOD
HANDLE ON THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION. AS IT REACHES EASTERN
KENTUCKY...IT LOOKS LIKE THE ACTIVITY MAY BECOME MORE SCATTERED AND
EVEN MORE SO AS IT PUSHES FURTHER EAST. WHILE A FASTER ONSET OF
PRECIPITATION LOOKS LIKELY TODAY...IT ALSO LOOKS LIKE ONLY A LIMITED
WINDOW FOR PRECIPITATION THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE WE DRY OUT
AGAIN BY LATE AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING AS SUBSIDENCE SPREADS BACK
OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH. THUS...GOING TO BACK OFF POPS
TO MORE SCATTERED COVERAGE TODAY AS MANY AREAS...ESPECIALLY IN THE
EAST MAY NOT MEASURE TODAY OR WILL LIKELY SEE VERY LIGHT RAINFALL.
WINDS ARE THE OTHER CONCERN FOR TODAY AS WINDS ARE ALREADY GUSTING UP
TO 30 MPH THIS MORNING. WITH THE WEAKENING SHOWERS SPREADING INTO THE
AREA...WE MAY TAP INTO SOME HIGHER WINDS ALOFT WITH 40 KNOTS AROUND
900 MB. THIS MAY CREATE SOME VERY GUSTY CONDITIONS AS THIS BAND OF
SHOWERS MOVES EAST THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. THUS...WENT AHEAD AND
ISSUED A LAKE WIND ADVISORY THROUGH 23Z TODAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE
WINDS.

MEANWHILE...A SHARPER MID LEVEL TROUGH IS CONTINUING TO DIG OVER THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES WITH A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE PUSHING INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. AS THESE TWO SYSTEMS PHASE AND MOVE EAST...IT WILL ACCELERATE
THE COLD FRONT ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY LATE TONIGHT. WITH GOOD
DYNAMICS IN PLACE...AND GOOD CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY...WE WILL SEE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION DEVELOP AS THIS
BOUNDARY MOVES EAST. A NARROW RIBBON OF INSTABILITY JUST AHEAD OF THE
FRONT COULD LEND ITSELF TO SOME LIGHTNING OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER...INSTABILITY SHOULD REMAIN ELEVATED...AND POSE NO SEVERE
THREAT. THE BIGGER STORY WILL BE THE RETURN OF MUCH COLDER AIR INTO
EASTERN KENTUCKY FOR TUESDAY. IT DOES APPEAR SOME MOISTURE WILL
LINGER BEHIND THE COLD FRONT YIELDING AN A BRIEF OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME
SNOW TO MIX IN JUST BEFORE PRECIPITATION ENDS. MOST LOCATIONS WILL
ESCAPE ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION AS THE GROUND WILL SIMPLY BE TOO WARM.
THE EXCEPTION WILL BE IN THE HIGHEST TERRAIN ABOVE 2.5KFT AS COLDER
SURFACE TEMPERATURES MAY ALLOW FOR BETTER ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL.
WILL GO WITH UP TO 2 INCHES ON THE HIGHEST PEAKS IN SOUTHEAST
KENTUCKY. PRECIPITATION WILL COME TO AN END THROUGH THE DAY
TUESDAY...BUT SOME DRIZZLE OR FLURRIES COULD LINGER ACROSS THE HIGH
TERRAIN IN THE SOUTHEAST INTO THE AFTERNOON OR EVENING HOURS. HIGHS
WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 40 ON TUESDAY...WITH HIGHS POSSIBLY OCCURRING
EARLY IN THE DAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 449 AM EDT MON APR 14 2014

A SURFACE RIDGE WILL BE MOVING OVER THE AREA WITH AN UNSEASONABLY
COLD AND DRY AIR MASS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. MODELS HAVE BEEN
CONSISTENT IN THEIR SOLUTIONS...AGREEING ON CLEARING SKIES AND EASING
WINDS LEADING TO A HARD FREEZE FOR MOST LOCATIONS...AND A FREEZE
WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE
HIGH WILL SLIP TO OUR EAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AND WEAK WARM AIR
ADVECTION WILL RETURN. MOISTURE WILL BE SLOW TO INCREASE...SO EVEN
THOUGH AFTERNOONS WILL BE MILDER...CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL
ALLOW FOR A LARGE DIURNAL RANGE WITH CHILLY EARLY MORNINGS. FROST
WILL BE EXPECTED FOR MANY LOCATIONS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND POSSIBLY
ON THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE COLDEST VALLEYS.

FROM FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND THE MODELS BECOME MORE DISPARATE AS
TIME GOES BY. IN GENERAL TERMS...ANOTHER MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
PROGRESS EAST ACROSS THE CONUS. COMPARED TO THE GFS...THE ECMWF IS
STRONGER WITH THE SOUTHERN END OF THIS FEATURE NEAR THE GULF COAST.
MEANWHILE...THE GFS IS WEAKER NEAR THE GULF COAST...BUT MUCH MORE
AMPLIFIED ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL CONUS. THIS AFFECTS CORRESPONDING
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT. BOTH SCENARIOS BRING THE GREATEST POP ON
FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT THE GFS IS MORE SUPPORTIVE OF PRECIP. THE
DIFFERING SURFACE PATTERNS ALSO AFFECT HOW MUCH COLDER FLOWS
SOUTHWARD DURING THE WEEKEND. SOME MEMBERS OF THE GFS ENSEMBLE VARY
QUITE A BIT FROM THE OPERATIONAL RUN...AND LEND SUPPORT TO THE ECMWF
PATTERN...BUT THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SUPPORTS THE OPERATIONAL GFS.
WITH ALL THIS IN MIND...WILL CONTINUE TO USE A GENERALIZED MODEL
COMPROMISE...WITH A LOWER CONFIDENCE THAN NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 702 AM EDT MON APR 14 2014

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING. .
THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN TODAY WILL BE GUSTY SOUTH AS THEY COULD
REACH AROUND 30 KNOTS AT TIMES THROUGH THE DAY. A FEW ISOLATED HIGHER
WIND GUSTS COULD ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN AND AROUND SHOWERS WHICH WILL BE
SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. A SHARP WIND SHIFT IS ANTICIPATED
TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY. THIS WIND
SHIFT WILL LIKELY OCCUR CLOSER TO MIDNIGHT OR LATER AS WINDS GO FROM
THE SOUTH TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST. IN ADDITION...WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA LATE TONIGHT WITH CIGS COMING
DOWN LATE TONIGHT TO MVFR OR LOWER.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.

LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR KYZ044-
050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.

&&

$$

UPDATE...AR
SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...HAL
AVIATION...KAS






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