Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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783
FXUS63 KJKL 040547
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1247 AM EST THU FEB 4 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1034 PM EST WED FEB 3 2016

STRATUS DECK HAS BEEN A TAD DELAYED IN PUSHING EAST ACROSS
LEXINGTON AND INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY. STILL LOOKING FOR THIS LOW
STRATUS TO SET IN AFTER MIDNIGHT AS COLD AIR ADVECTION HELPS DROP
TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOW-MID 30S BY DAYBREAK THURSDAY. STILL
POSSIBLE TO SEE A SPRINKLE TONIGHT MIXED WITH A FLURRY OR TWO
LATER ON AS TEMPERATURES DROP...BUT NOTHING TO CAUSE ANY CONCERN
REGARDING MEASURABLE AMOUNTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 305 PM EST WED FEB 3 2016

CLOUDS QUICKLY CLEARED OUT BEHIND THE FRONT EARLIER TODAY AS DRY
AIR FILTERED INTO THE REGION. THANKS TO PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE AND
GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON...HIGHS ARE TOPPING OUT IN THE LOW TO
MID 60S. LOWS TONIGHT WILL TAKE A TUMBLE TO NEAR FREEZING OR JUST
BELOW...EVEN WITH LLVL MOISTURE AND CLOUDS EXPECTED TO MOVE BACK
INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY. LATEST MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE
LLVL MOISTURE WILL GET TRAPPED FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE OVERNIGHT
AND MORNING PERIOD BEFORE CLEARING OUT SOMETIME IN THE AFTERNOON.
AS THE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THURSDAY...WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST...USHERING MUCH COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION.
THIS WILL LIMIT THE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE SWING TOMORROW WITH HIGHS
ONLY NIPPING AT THE 40 DEGREE MARK. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BEGINS
BUILDING INTO THE COMMONWEALTH THURSDAY EVENING MAKING FOR A
CHILLY NIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS AROUND 20 DEGREES. A SUNNY
AND SEASONABLE DAY IS THEN EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM EST WED FEB 3 2016

THE PERIOD IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DEPARTING
TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST OF THE AREA AND SHORTWAVE RIDGING
BUILDING INTO THE OH AND TN VALLEYS FROM THE MS VALLEY. ALSO TO
BEGIN THE PERIOD...A RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND NORTH INTO THE
WESTERN CONUS WITH A COUPLE OF UNPHASED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS OVER
THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. AT THE SFC...A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE SHOULD BEGIN THE PERIOD EXTENDING FROM THE OH VALLEY
SOUTH TO THE GULF COAST STATES WITH A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL WORK ACROSS
THE AREA WITH THE AXIS OF THE RIDGE MOVING EAST OF THE REGION ON
FRIDAY NIGHT. THE NORTHERN SHORTWAVE SHOULD TRACK INTO THE GREAT
LAKES ON FRIDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY AND
NORTHEAST WHILE THE SOUTHER SHORTWAVE SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE LOWER
MS VALLEY AND INTO THE DEEP SOUTH BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS
WILL TAKE THE BEST MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE
AREA TO START THE WEEKEND...WITH HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING IN PLACE
AT THE SFC. THE RESULT SHOULD BE DRY WEATHER AND TEMPERATURES A
FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR DAYTIME HIGHS. LOWS ON FRI NIGHT
SHOULD BE ON THE COLD SIDE IN THE VALLEYS...WITH THE COLDEST SPOTS
PROBABLY FALLING INTO THE UPPER TEENS WITH 20S ELSEWHERE.

SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...THE AXIS OF TROUGHING AT 500 MB
SHOULD MOVE EAST OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY NIGHT WITH SHORTWAVE
RIDGING BUILDING IN BEHIND IT FOR MUCH OF SUNDAY. AT THE SAME
TIME THOUGH...THE PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS SHOULD BEGIN TO AMPLIFY
WITH RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS THE WEST AND TROUGHING BUILD INTO THE
CENTRAL CONUS.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MIDWEEK...THE PATTERN SHOULD CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY
DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK WITH THE RIDGING REMAINING IN
PLACE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS INTO THE CANADIAN ROCKIES AND A
TROUGH MOVING FROM THE CENTRAL TO EASTERN CONUS. MODEL DIFFERENCES
REMAIN FROM RUN TO RUN AND MODEL TO MODEL IN THE DETAILS OF TIMING
AND EXACTLY HOW COLD THE AIRMASS WILL BE. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES
SHOULD WORK ACROSS THE OH VALLEY REGION. MODEL AGREEMENT IS
BETTER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY THAT A SHORTWAVE SHOULD TRACK FROM
THE NORTHERN PLAINS/SOUTHERN CANADA INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND
CLOSE OFF BY THE START OF THE PERIOD WITH A SFC LOW ALSO TRACKING
INTO THE GREAT LAKES. A COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTH FROM THIS SYSTEM
SHOULD CROSS THE AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT OR DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY. THIS SHOULD USHER IN THE LEADING EDGE OF AN AIRMASS THAT
WILL BRING A RETURN OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THOUGH THE
MAGNITUDE BELOW NORMAL REMAINS UNCERTAIN. A MODEL COMPROMISE
SUGGESTS TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO EXCEED THE FREEZING MARK IN
MANY LOCATIONS ON TUESDAY BEFORE STRUGGLING TO GET OUT OF THE
UPPER 20S ON WEDNESDAY.

SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE ALSO ANTICIPATED DURING THIS PERIOD
FROM SUNDAY EVENING INTO MIDWEEK...AS WEAK SHORTWAVES PASS AND
MODELS INDICATE SOME MOISTURE WITH THESE AS WELL. DAYTIME HEATING
SHOULD COMBINE WITH THE LOW LEVEL FLOW HAVING AN UPSLOPE
COMPONENT FOR PORTIONS OF THIS PERIOD. SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
FORM TIME TO TIME ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLY AND POTENTIAL HAS
CONTINUED TO BE HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HWO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1245 AM EST THU FEB 4 2016

A LLVL STRATUS DECK IS CURRENTLY MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS EASTERN
KY...WITH LOW END VFR TO HIGH END MVFR CIGS EXPECTED AT ALL THE
TAF SITES THROUGH THE NIGHT. ENOUGH DRY AIR CURRENTLY LOOKS TO BE
LOCKED IN NEAR THE SURFACE TO PRECLUDE FOG DEVELOPMENT AT THIS
TIME...AS W/NW WINDS REMAIN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE 5 KNOTS. CAA
PRODUCING GUSTS IN THE 15KT RANGE WILL FURTHER REDUCE ANY FOG
CONCERNS. HOWEVER...COULD SEE A SPRINKLE OR EVEN A SNOW FLURRY
LATER TONIGHT FALL FROM THIS STRATUS. EXPECT THESE VFR/MVFR
CEILINGS TO MIX OUT THROUGH THE MORNING...THOUGH SCT CLOUDS NEAR
3000FT COULD REMAIN THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM
THE NW THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...DIMINISHING TO GENERALLY LESS THAN
10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GUSEMAN
SHORT TERM...JVM
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...JMW



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