Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 202000
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
400 PM EDT Tue Jun 20 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 359 PM EDT TUE JUN 20 2017

The latest surface map features broad high pressure across the
mid-Mississippi Valley, with Tropical Storm Cindy located across
the central Gulf of Mexico. Aloft, a strong ridge remains poised
across the Desert Southwest, with troughing in the northeastern
quadrant of the CONUS. Eastern Kentucky has been enjoying dry
weather, with temperatures in the low to mid 80s and dew points
down as low as the lower 50s in places at times.

Dry weather will continue through the rest of the short term, as
high pressure remains nosed in from the east southeast through the
column. Tonight will feature a mostly clear night, with lows
ranging from the mid 50s in some of the cooler valleys, and lower
60s on the ridges. Wednesday will feature a warmer day, with highs
in the mid 80s, and dew points also a bit higher.

The moisture will make a bigger increase through Wednesday night,
as thicker high clouds stream in from the approach of Cindy. Lows
will be in the mid to upper 60s.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 359 PM EDT TUE JUN 20 2017

The extended portion of the forecast begins on Thursday with the
upper level pattern favoring a more northern track with the jet
leaving the central and southern CONUS under weak flow to begin the
extended. Focus of the extended will be on the approach of the
remnants of or rather a still organized Tropical Depression
possible moving into Kentucky. Models have wavered a bit on the
track and QPF amounts but overall have kept a consistent time period
of rainfall. As the surface tropical low track north and northeast
around the mid level ridge parked over the southeastern CONUS it
will track east into KY and the TN Valley. At this point the system
interacts with a cold front dropping from the western Great Lakes
southeast into the Ohio Valley. Models have indicated, though
slightly inconsistent on the placement of the heaviest band of
precip, that this interaction with the front and the deep rich
tropical moisture will produce the heaviest rainfall during the Sat
00Z to 12Z period. Model soundings during this time indicate a 2
inch plus PWAT over eastern Kentucky. However, the inconsistency of
models and the lessened QPF of WPC 12Z solution has made the case to
reduce QPF a bit so added a 50% blend to the super blend from the
WPC run. Thus have gotten a more reasonable QPF amount and in
agreement with the neighboring offices. So will continue to mention
the heavy rainfall threat in the HWO for Friday through Saturday
night with the best chance being Friday night into Saturday.

By Sunday, expect a brief period of dry weather before the next
disturbance tracks east across the mid MS Valley into eastern
Kentucky by Sunday afternoon. The front will hang up along the
middle Appalachians keeping the chance of precip lasting from Sunday
afternoon into Monday afternoon. Confidence at this point is not
very high given the uncertainty of the track of the remnants of
Tropical system Cindy. Thus pop chances will be slight for Sunday
night through Monday night.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 219 PM EDT TUE JUN 20 2017

High pressure will keep VFR conditions in place, besides some
patchy IFR or worse fog between 06 and 13z. This should be
confined to the deeper river valleys. Scattered cumulus at 6-7k
feet agl will gradually dissipate through this evening, with some
increase in mid level clouds possible towards dawn Wednesday
morning. West winds at 5 to 10 kts will become light and variable
by this evening.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN



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