Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 181757

National Weather Service Jackson KY
1257 PM EST Sat Feb 18 2017

Issued at 100 PM EST SAT FEB 18 2017

Current conditions around the area feature a swath of moisture
advecting north from the southwest in the form of some showers.
Trends have made for some difficulty of saturating the atmosphere
for rain to reach the surface given the rather dry past 24 hours.
Finally over the past hour has a few locations along the TN border
has some reports of measured rainfall occurred. Have updated the
forecast to account for this slow development and according to
WPC, QPF amounts have been lessened as well. Due to this, should
begin to see the bulk of the rainfall in the next 6 to 8 hours as
the disturbance traverses the area. Sunday and Sunday night look
to be a dry period as high pressure shifts back over the area.

UPDATE Issued at 640 AM EST SAT FEB 18 2017

Forecast still on track early this morning. Rain showers are
beginning to move across the Tennessee border and into eastern
Kentucky as we speak. These showers will be isolated to start, but
should become scattered by late this morning. The rain will
persist through the overnight hours, and should exit the area by
mid morning Sunday. The rain will be generally light, with a
quarter of an inch or less expected at most locations.


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 302 AM EST SAT FEB 18 2017

Rain chances will return to eastern Kentucky today, as an area of
low pressure moves across the Tennessee and lower Ohio valley
regions. The first rain showers should begin moving into the area
early this morning, with scattered showers spreading across the
remainder of eastern Kentucky through out the day. The rain
should begin to taper off tonight, with the last rain showers
exiting the area mid morning Sunday. Based on the latest model
data, precipitation amounts should be meager at best, with a
quarter of an inch or less expected pretty much everywhere. Above
normal temperatures will persist during the weekend as well, with
highs today in the upper 50s and lower 60s expected, and in the
low to mid 60s on Sunday. Tonights lows should only fall into the
low to mid 40s. Winds will be out of the south or southwest at 5
to 10 mph today, and will shift to the west on Sunday after the
area of low pressure moves off to our east.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 346 AM EST SAT FEB 18 2017

Springlike warmth will remain in place through the upcoming week.
While the vast majority of the week looks to remain precipitation
free, later Tuesday into early Wednesday looks to bring some
meager rainfall amounts of perhaps one to two tenths of an inch.
This will come by way of a shortwave trough extending from the
Northwestern Territories to Mexico, following deep layer ridging
and an invasion of balmy 850 mb temperatures, warming temperatures
into the upper 60s to lower 70s Monday. Further promoting this
warmth will be a downslope wind component with east/southeast low
level winds in place. Any lingering rainfall Wednesday morning
will shift east during the afternoon, although would not be
surprised to see drying ensue by early Wednesday morning given the
northern stream of this wave dampening and shearing out as the
southern stream portion digs into the Gulf of Mexico. Nonetheless,
temperatures will remain warm, in the mid-upper 60s, despite a
period of low clouds and without a notable change in airmass.

An upper level disturbance will then develop across the Great
Basin and Intermountain West Wednesday and Thursday. Additionally,
an upper low from the Canadian Prairies to Hudson Bay will usher
energy into the Great Lakes and upper Ohio Valley. Not expecting
any resulting rainfall for eastern Kentucky from this latter
feature, but will have to monitor lead impulses ejecting
downstream of the former system. Slim rain shower chances will
thus result Thursday, before chances increase later Friday into
the first half of next weekend. Currently looking like a cold
front will finally kick through eastern Kentucky, bringing
bonafide rain chances and cooler temperatures. However, upper low
track across the upper Midwest and Great Lakes warrants skepticism
as to greater rainfall and also potential thunder chances. Will
therefore keep thunderstorm mention out of the forecast until
prospects for more appreciable/robust large scale forcing for
ascent become clearer.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)

Expect VFR conditions to persist through 00Z tonight for all the
TAF sites but as the bulk of the moisture advects into the region
over the next 6 hours, there may begin to be some lowering of
cigs. Have put this into the TAFS mostly after 03Z tonight with
some lowering to MVFR and possibly IFR. These cigs should persist
at least into Sunday morning. Winds should remain light through
the period.




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