Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000
FXUS63 KJKL 211656
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1156 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1156 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

NOTHING BUT BLUE SKIES WITH TEMPS STILL LARGELY ON TRACK. UPDATED ONLY
TO BLEND LATE MORNING OBS INTO THE AFTERNOON FORECAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 909 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

MADE ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO ACCOUNT FOR OBS AND LATEST MODEL DATA.
LOWERED CLOUD COVER FORECAST FOR TODAY INTO THIS EVENING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 745 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

FRESHENED UP THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS TO ACCOUNT FOR
THE LATEST TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS...OTHERWISE THE FORECAST REMAINS ON
TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

THE LATEST SURFACE MAP FEATURES HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY...WITH THE CENTER CURRENTLY RESIDING ACROSS ILLINOIS. A
WEAKENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FOUND ACROSS SOUTHERN QUEBEC...WITH
A LEFTOVER COLD FRONT STRETCHED FROM NEW ENGLAND DOWN ACROSS THE DEEP
SOUTH...BEFORE THE BOUNDARY BECOMES MORE STATIONARY NEAR THE ARKLATEX
REGION. ALOFT...CYCLONIC FLOW IS PULLING AWAY TO THE EAST...WITH MORE
ZONAL FLOW LOCATED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CONUS AND THE PLAINS. EASTERN
KENTUCKY REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE...WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES ALLOWING FOR A CHILLY NIGHT...WITH SHELTERED VALLEY
LOCATIONS CURRENTLY REPORTING IN THE TEENS.

THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...WITH
AMPLIFICATION ALOFT TAKING PLACE OUT WEST...AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH
SWINGS EAST FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...WHILE A MUCH DEEPER WAVE
MOVES IN ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. THE NORTHERN STREAM WAVE WILL
ALLOW FOR DEEPENING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE IN ACROSS THE
U.S./CANADIAN BORDER NEAR THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL SHOVE THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BY
LATE IN THE DAY ON SATURDAY. THE RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING A
MODERATION TO THE TEMPERATURES ACROSS OUR AREA OVER THE NEXT 36
HOURS.

TODAY WILL FEATURE A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY WITH HIGHS REBOUNDING TO THE
UPPER 30S IN THE NORTH...TO THE MID 40S IN THE SOUTH. A LOW LEVEL JET
WILL RAMP UP ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES TONIGHT. THIS
WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA...HOWEVER
PRECIP LOOKS TO HAVE A HARD TIME OVERCOMING THE DRY AIR IN
PLACE...AND THE BEST LIFT WILL BE FURTHER OFF TO THE NORTHWEST...SO
HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. LOWS WILL BE
TRICKY...AS THE EASTERN VALLEYS WILL LIKELY DECOUPLE THROUGH THE
FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT AND THEN MAY REMAIN NEARLY STEADY AS CLOUDS
INCREASE. BROADER VALLEYS OUT WEST AND THE BLUEGRASS WILL LIKELY SEE
THEIR LOWS IN THE EVENING...AND THEN GRADUALLY WARM TOWARDS
DAWN...AS SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ALONG WITH CLOUD COVER
INCREASE.

THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A MILD SATURDAY...AS THE WARM AIR
ADVECTION CONTINUES AND ALLOWS FOR HIGHS TO RETURN TO SEASONABLE
LEVELS IN THE MID 50S...UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

THE PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ORGANIZING
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS
ILLINOIS...AND INTO MICHIGAN BY SUNDAY NIGHT. AS THIS SYSTEM LIFTS
NORTH...A WARM FRONT WILL PUSH NORTH ACROSS THE AREA. A STRONG MID
LEVEL TROUGH WILL PIVOT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA ON SUNDAY...PROVIDING
LOTS OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER...AT THE SAME
TIME...STRONG SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP LATE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH DOWNSLOPING FLOW ANTICIPATED ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY. THIS WILL SET THE BATTLE BETWEEN THE DOWNSLOPING FLOW AND
FORCING ALOFT. AS IT STANDS NOW...FORCING SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO
OVERTAKE THE DOWNSLOPING FLOW BY LATE IN THE DAY...BUT STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY THERE...SO HAVE GONE WITH A GRADIENT IN POPS FROM THE
WEST TO THE EAST THROUGH THE DAY. QPF WILL ALSO SEE A GRADIENT
MATCHING THE POPS. IN ADDITION...THE DOWNSLOPING FLOW COULD ALLOW
FOR SOME SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES IN THE EAST...ESPECIALLY IF
THE RAIN HOLDS OFF INTO THE AFTERNOON.

BY SUNDAY NIGHT...FORCING EXITS TO THE NORTH...LEAVING EASTERN
KENTUCKY IN A QUASI-DRY SLOT. WHILE A FEW SHOWERS COULD POP UP
ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES THROUGH THE NIGHT...IT APPEARS MUCH OF THE
AREA MAY STAY DRY THROUGH THE NIGHT. BY MONDAY...A SURFACE/MID LEVEL
TROUGH WILL WORK EAST ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS WILL BE CRANKING JUST
BEHIND THIS TROUGH AND COULD BE A WINDY DAY ACROSS THE AREA. GFS
925MB WINDS ARE NEAR 40 KNOTS.  FORECAST BECOMES A BIT MORE MUDDLED
AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. A DEEP TROUGH WILL
RETURN FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED WITH THE PATTERN TURNING A
BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE. THIS WILL YIELD SMALL CHANCES FOR RAIN OR SNOW
JUST ABOUT EACH DAY THROUGH THE EXTENDED. AT THIS TIME...IT DOES NOT
APPEAR TO BE LOOKING LIKELY FOR ANY LARGE IMPACTFUL WINTER
STORMS...BUT GFS IS SUGGESTING A BAROCLINIC ZONE MAY SET UP OVER THE
AREA TOWARDS WEEKS END AND COULD EVENTUALLY LEAD TO A LARGER SYSTEM
TOWARDS THANKSGIVING WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 745 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS THROUGH
THIS EVENING. MAINLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL THEN BE ON THE INCREASE
FROM THE WEST OUT AHEAD OF A WEAK PASSING UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM. WINDS
WILL ALSO GRADUALLY VEER AROUND TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST AT AROUND
5 KTS.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HAL
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN







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