Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 251736
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
136 PM EDT Sat Mar 25 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1253 PM EDT SAT MAR 25 2017

The forecast in general has been on track so far today. BKN to OVC
high level clouds have overspread the area, but this still jives
with the partly to mostly cloudy sky conditions being portrayed
in the forecast. Hourly temperatures have also been on track for
the most part as well. The only change made to the zone forecast
text product was to remove any outdated morning wording. The
latest obs were ingested into the hourly forecast grids to
establish new trends.

UPDATE Issued at 810 AM EDT SAT MAR 25 2017

Clouds are a little less extensive than was forecast this morning,
and have backed off on forecast sky cover for a while. Otherwise,
have only blended early morning temps and dew points into the
forecast.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 435 AM EDT SAT MAR 25 2017

A slow moving stacked low pressure system currently over eastern
OK will move northeast, reaching the Chicago area by Sunday
evening. A warm, moist flow off the Gulf of Mexico and the
advancing upper trough associated with the system are responsible
for a line of showers and thunderstorms currently extending from
southern IL south to the Gulf Coast. The precip will move east
along with the regime, bringing rain to our local area this
weekend. It should hold off long enough to give us another mild
and dry day today. A model blend solution brings precip in from
the west tonight, likely bisecting the JKL forecast area at dawn
on Sunday, and then continuing to move eastward over the remainder
of the area on Sunday.

Modest instability is expected, and thunder will continue to be
mentioned for tonight and Sunday. With decent flow aloft and
freezing levels only around 8K ft on Sunday, organized convection
could bring strong winds and hail. However, in terms of severe
weather, parameters are not overly impressive.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 435 AM EDT SAT MAR 25 2017

The first of a string of upper level waves will be placed across the
Upper Ohio Valley/Southern Great lakes region in a negatively tilted
position. A weak low will be stacked with it and trailing cold front
attempting to progress through the area. There will be lingering
showers and thunderstorms Sunday night and slowly wane from west to
east through Monday. Did keep chance to slight chance POPs going
into Monday, as the front may in fact stall out near by. That said,
another wave will be on the heels of the previous and will eject
east into the TN/OH valleys by Monday night. Another Low will
develop and bring the front back across the region leading
additional showers and thunderstorms Monday night into Tuesday. This
is where is gets convoluted as front may in fact stall again nearby,
but the agreement on this becomes less in the deterministic models
past this point. Right now given a upper level ridge builds east
will cap POPs at slight on Wednesday and mainly confine these to the
southern portions of the CWA.

Another upper level wave will move out of the Four Corners into the
Southern Plains Wednesday and progress east by Thursday. However,
the models diverge on how this will evolve and struggle with what
looks like some phasing issues. This leads to more uncertainty and
would think all the issues leading in will have affects on this part
of the forecast period as well. Not to mention the timing and
evolution differences seen in the ensemble mean of the GFS versus
the operational run. Given this felt like POPs would need to be
caped at chance and unsure on where the highest POPs will truly
exists. Therefore, will keep close to general trends in the model
blend. Despite the active pattern it does look like a extended
period of above normal temperatures will remain the story throughout
the long term period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 136 PM EDT SAT MAR 25 2017

VFR conditions are expected to hold until around 9Z at LOZ and
SME. Scattered to numerous rain showers, and few thunderstorms,
should be moving into the area around LOZ and SME by then. JKL and
SYM can expect the showers and storms around 12Z, with SJS not
seeing any precipitation in the vicinity until near the end of the
TAF period. Any storms or intense showers could bring MVFR, or
locally worse, conditions to any given airport. As for the rest of
today, southerly winds of around 10 mph could gust to around 20
mph through 22Z. BKN to OVC layers of high level cloud cover will
be in place to begin the TAF period, but will gradually be
replaced by middle and low level clouds as a weather system
approaches from the west this evening and tonight.

South to southwest winds will pick up and gust to around 20 kts
over much of the area during the day Today.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AR
SHORT TERM...HAL
LONG TERM...DJ
AVIATION...AR



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