Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 220813

National Weather Service Jackson KY
413 AM EDT Sun Oct 22 2017

Issued at 130 AM EDT SUN OCT 22 2017

Quiet night with temperatures on track for the most part early
this morning. Am seeing some hints of valley fog on regional
satellite underneath extensive but thin high cloud cover. Also
had a little patchy fog on the way in to shift. Forecast has all
of this handled well. Made only minor tweaks to hourly grids for
latest surface obs. No updates to the zone package this morning.

UPDATE Issued at 1101 PM EDT SAT OCT 21 2017

Freshened up the low temperatures in places based on the latest
trends in observations. High clouds have thinned a bit this
evening, lending support for the cooler drop off. Still expect
some valleys in the east to get down to the low to mid 40s.

UPDATE Issued at 758 PM EDT SAT OCT 21 2017

High pressure is maintaining control tonight; however, there are
some high clouds streaming in on southwest flow aloft. Late
afternoon dew points were similar to yesterday, so think that
valley locations will drop off more, especially in the east. There
may be a touch of fog along the river valleys, but this should be
a bit less than previous mornings, given the modified air mass.
Updates have been sent.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 300 PM EDT SAT OCT 21 2017

A ridge of high pressure will bring dry and warmer than normal
weather to eastern Kentucky through early Sunday evening.
Scattered to broken high level cloud cover will stream across the
area during that time. Highs on Sunday should be similar to today,
with max readings in the upper 70s to lower 80s expected. Tonights
low will also be warmer than normal, with minimum readings ranging
from the upper 40s to the mid 50s across the area. Cloud cover
will finally begin to increase Sunday evening, as a large trough
of low pressure aloft, and its attendant surface cold front,
begin moving across the region. We should see the first rain
showers begin moving into the southwestern portion of the forecast
area late Sunday night.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 413 AM EDT SUN OCT 22 2017

The extended forecast begins on Monday night with a deepening longwave
trough digging southeast into the OH Valley. This, exhibiting a
rather amplified upper level pattern beginning the extended. A
closed 500MB low develops and lifts northeast out of the area as
precip associated with the low exits eastern Kentucky by Tuesday
morning. Given the lack of instability apparent in the GFS model
sounding, rainfall Monday night and through the day on Tuesday
will be more showery precip with no thunder expected.`As some of
the coldest air of the season so far advects into the region, a
secondary wave behind the front will push in from the northwest
with another chance of showers expected in northeast and eastern
Kentucky Tuesday night and into the day on Wednesday.

With coldest part of the fall like airmass reaching the area on
Wednesday, the 0 degree 850MB isotherm will dip into eastern
Kentucky. In fact. highs on Wednesday will barely make it out of the
40s for highs in some parts. With lows Thursday morning dipping
into the mid 30s and dew points dropping into the low 30s,
widespread frost will be an impact to vegetation.

The upper level pattern begins to shift to a more progressive flow
as brief ridging will keep eastern Kentucky dry for Thursday and
much of Friday. The pattern then begins to amplify again as a
second trough digs south as another front pushes southeast through
the OH Valley. At this point, the front seems to be lacking the
instability so will keep thunder out of the forecast at this point
as well. However, another good soaking rain looks to be on tap for
next weekend with another shot of cold air, possibly colder than
the last.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)

VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast. Am picking up
on some valley fog on the regional satellite under some extensive
but thin high level cloud cover up around 300-350 ft. making it a
little more difficult for nighttime navigation. Also experiencing
a some light southeast winds along the ridgetops. These will veer
a bit later today, out of the south and increase to around 10 kts.
VAD wind profilers further west do indicate the potential of some
non-convective LLWS across the far southwest. Added a touch of
LLWS to KSME`s TAF to cover this potential.




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