Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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515
FXUS63 KJKL 241908
AFDJKL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson KY
308 PM EDT WED AUG 24 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1214 PM EDT WED AUG 24 2016

Update over the last hour included just minor changes, mainly to
make sure the near term grids for the temps, dew points, and winds
were on track with the current conditions. Also made some minor
changes to the pops and weather for the rest of today based on
current conditions and latest hires model data. This should keep
precip chances out of the CWA through the day. No changes to the
ongoing forecast package were needed with this update.

UPDATE Issued at 921 AM EDT WED AUG 24 2016

Conditions have cleared out across eastern KY this mid morning in
respect to any precipitation, with just some lingering mid and
high clouds remaining across the region. Took out mention of
sprinkles in the weather group, and also freshened up the near-
term temp, dew point, and wind forecast with the latest
observations. All changes have been published and sent to
NDFD/web. A new forecast package was sent out to remove sprinkles
wording this morning.

UPDATE Issued at 612 AM EDT WED AUG 24 2016

A few showers have popped up on radar across Indiana and Ohio over
the past hour. These showers are associated with the remnants of
an overnight MCS that affected Iowa and Missouri. For now, they
appear to be tracking to the east/northeast. However, some of the
convective models track a few of these showers across far
northern Kentucky later this morning into the early afternoon.
Additionally, the convective models indicate some diurnal
convection along the Tennessee/Kentucky border so decided to keep
slight pops in both of these areas today.

Also freshened up the hourly temps and sky cover to reflect recent
trends. Sent updates to NDFD and web servers.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 352 AM EDT WED AUG 24 2016

Moisture continues to increase across the region this morning with
west to southwest flow in place at the surface up to mid/upper
levels. This has allowed mid and high level clouds to increase in
coverage and dew points to rise towards the mid 60s. Luckily, this
increase in cloud cover has kept most fog development at bay early
this morning. While shower activity should be sparse today, there
may be just enough moisture and lift to spark off a few showers
this afternoon. This shouldn`t be a big deal as widespread mid and
upper level forcing is absent during the day.

On Thursday, a cold front extending from a surface low along the
United States/Canadian border, will shift towards the Ohio Valley.
The front will attempt to cross into Kentucky but is expected to
weaken and fall apart as it runs into a dominate upper ridge in
place over the southeastern CONUS. In fact, the upper ridge is
expected to reinforce itself over Kentucky Thursday afternoon,
limiting any shower activity to the northern and eastern counties
during the morning hours. Skies will begin to clear Thursday
afternoon/evening as surface high pressure builds back into the
Ohio Valley.

Temperatures will warm into the upper 80s today and tomorrow,
with some locations hitting that 90 degree mark on Thursday.
Humidity will also be higher, making for more muggy and
uncomfortable conditions through the short term.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 308 PM EDT WED AUG 24 2016

A stout upper level ridge will dominate our weather into early
next week. This will keep temperatures much warmer than normal
and muggy dewpoints in the upper 60s to mid 70s. Isolated
showers/storms will be possible each day over the weekend into
early next week in the warm and humid airmass. It appears the
ridge will weaken slightly by the end of the period, possibly
allowing a cold front to sag into the region. The front appears
very weak in the models so will keep PoPs low and diurnally
influenced even during these periods. Models keep any influences
from a potential tropical system developing in the Caribbean to
our south and east through Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
ISSUED AT 643 AM EDT WED AUG 24 2016

VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. A few showers
are thunderstorms are possible today and tonight but are expected
to be very isolated in nature and therefore have kept them out of
the TAFs. Additionally, with a more humid air mass in place,
valley fog is possible again tonight and could therefore reduce
visibilities down to MVFR/IFR at times. Winds will generally be
between 5 to 10 knots from the south/southwest.

&&

.JKL Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JMW
SHORT TERM...JVM
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...JVM



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