Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 050822
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
422 AM EDT WED AUG 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 421 AM EDT WED AUG 5 2015

CURRENT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA FEATURE A QUASI-STATIONARY
BOUNDARY ACROSS THE OH VALLEY AND INTO THE MID MS VALLEY. ALONG
THIS BOUNDARY CURRENT...PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER CONTINUES TO MOVE
THROUGH KY ASSOCIATED WITH DECAYING UPSTREAM CONVECTION. ACROSS
THE AREA...PLENTY OF MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE WITH DEW POINTS
ACROSS THE AREA IN THE MID 60S. SUCH A MOIST AND UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR EARLY CONVECTION THIS MORNING AND
ESPECIALLY HEADING INTO THE DAY. WILL DEAL WITH SOME FOG IN THE
DEEPER RIVER VALLEYS THIS MORNING BEFORE THIS BURNS OFF JUST AFTER
14Z.

ALOFT...THE PATTERN REMAINS WITH A TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS
WITH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH ROUNDING OUT JUST ALONG THE TN VALLEY.
HEADING INTO THE DAY A STRONG WAVE HAS TRAVERSED THE RIDGE OVER
THE FRONT RANGE AND NOW STREAKS EAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND
THEN WESTERN KY. SOME UPPER LEVEL ENERGY AHEAD OF THIS ALREADY NOW
INTO WESTERN KY WILL BE ENOUGH FOR SOME CONVECTION TO DEVELOP INTO
EASTERN KY BY 15Z. THE BETTER FORCING AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
ARRIVES LATER TODAY AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. MODELS HAVE BEEN OFF
ON THE TIMING OF THIS FEATURE BUT CURRENT CONDITIONS UPSTREAM IN
MO AND KS WOULD SUGGEST AN EARLY START TO THE ACTIVITY TODAY.
MODEL SOUNDINGS HEADING INTO THE AFTERNOON...WHILE A TAD OVER
DONE...SUGGEST PLENTY OF INSTABILITY IN PLACE WITH PWATS IN THE
1.6 TO 2.0 RANGE. ONCE AGAIN THIS WILL POSE A THREAT OF HEAVY
RAINFALL AND TRAINING STORMS. A RATHER HIGH FREEZING LEVEL AND
LACK OF WINDS ALOFT WILL MAKE FOR MOSTLY SUB SEVERE STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THOUGH A FEW STORMS MAY BE STRONG. THE
BULK OF THESE INGREDIENTS ARRIVE THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT AS THE
MENTION STRONG WAVE ARRIVES IN EAST KY.

CONCERNING FOR TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY...MODEL PROFILES FOR THIS
TIME PERIOD INDICATE QUITE A STEEP WARM LAYER...NEAR 2 INCH
PWATS...AND CAPE PROFILES EQUALLY DISTRIBUTED ALONG THE COLUMN
ALLOWING FOR EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCTION. WHILE STORM MOTION
WILL BE A BIT QUICKER AT 10 KNOTS OR MORE ALLOWING LESS RESIDENCE
TIME...THOUGH...THE PREVIOUS MENTIONED INGREDIENTS WILL BE ENOUGH
TO SET THE STAGE FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WITH FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE.
THEREFORE...HAVE EXTENDED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO INCLUDE THE
SOUTHERN COUNTIES AND THUS...ALL OF EASTERN KENTUCKY. HAVE ALSO
INCLUDED SOME HEAVY RAINFALL MENTION IN THE WEATHER GRIDS TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS. FOR THURSDAY...AS THE UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS AND
THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES THROUGH KENTUCKY WITH THE BETTER SUPPORT
ALOFT AND INSTABILITY FROM THE DAYS HEATING...THOUGH LESS...WILL
ALLOW HEAVY RAINFALL PRODUCING STORMS TO CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.

ONE FORECAST ISSUE WITH ANY CONVECTION LATER TONIGHT AND INTO
THURSDAY...MOST LIKELY THERE WILL BE SOME ORGANIZATION WITH STORMS
DEVELOPING ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IN PLACE SO
THIS WOULD MAKE PRECIP RATHER INTERMITTENT AT TIMES THROUGH THE
PERIOD. IF ANY OF THIS DEVELOPS DURING THIS TIME OR A COLD POOL
DEVELOPS...THERE MAY BECOME A WIND THREAT BUT THIS IS UNLIKELY AT
THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 421 AM EDT WED AUG 5 2015

THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 147 AM EDT WED AUG 5 2015

RECENT RAINS ACROSS THE AREA THIS PAST EVENING HAS LEFT A
SATURATED SURFACE. WITH THE LIGHT WINDS...THIS WILL LEAVE THE AREA
CONDUCIVE TO FOG DEVELOPMENT BUT LINGERING CLOUD COVER WILL MAKE
THIS A VARIABLE CONDITION THROUGH THE NIGHT. FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE
AT THE TAF SITES BY 14Z AS HEATING INTO THE DAY BEGINS. WITH A
STALLED BOUNDARY OVER THE AREA...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP AGAIN LATER TODAY IN THE AFTERNOON AND MORE TOWARDS THE
EVENING SO WILL INTRODUCE VCTS TO THE TAF SITES. FOG WILL AGAIN
DEVELOP AGAIN LATER TOMORROW NIGHT AS WELL.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
FOR KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-088-104-106>120.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SHALLENBERGER
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...SHALLENBERGER


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