Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 222104
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
504 PM EDT Thu Jun 22 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 504 PM EDT THU JUN 22 2017

The leading edge of deeper moisture associated with Cindy has
brought widespread showers to eastern Kentucky through the day.
Lightning has been scarce so far today, with most locations
receiving between a few hundredths of an inch and a half inch of
rainfall, as some downsloping flow has cut into totals.

The main band of showers will lift off to our northeast through
this evening, with generally lesser chances expected through the
overnight hours. A low level jet does pick up towards dawn, and
this may initiate some better areal coverage.

The remnants of Cindy will track up the Mississippi Valley on
Friday, before turning more northeast across the northern half of
Kentucky Friday night. An approaching cold front will interact
with this system, allowing for a period of heavy rainfall that
will move in to eastern Kentucky later Friday afternoon into
Friday night. The models have generally shifted the higher QPF
amounts more to the north with time, although given the high
moisture content of the air mass, any location would have the
potential for heavy rainfall and flash flooding.

As such, a flash flood watch is in effect from Friday afternoon
through early Saturday morning. Locations generally near and north
of a line from Mckee to Jackson to Inez will have the higher
flash flood threat, where the higher 6 hour QPF totals will
reside. Depending on the exact amounts, some significant river
rises will also be possible.

In addition to the heavy rainfall, there may also be a severe
threat window Friday afternoon into Friday evening, given the
stronger low level wind profiles in place and the proximity of the
low center. As is typical, instability will be in question as
mid-level lapse rates will be lacking. Have continued to
mention this potential in the HWO.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 244 PM EDT THU JUN 22 2017

The extended portion of the forecast begins on Saturday with the
upper level pattern featuring a stout ridge over the western CONUS
transitioning into a trough over the Great Lakes. The first wave
associated with the combination of tropical moisture and a cold
front will finally exit the area at the start of the forecast
period. So will see a chance of showers over eastern Kentucky
through the day on Saturday as the last of the showers exit the
area by the evening. This will usher in a dry period as models
have trended drier and drier. The mentioned stout ridge in the
west will build as it shifts east nudging the axis over the
Midwest by Wednesday. In addition, a bubble of surface high
pressure will carve out an area of subsidence over eastern
Kentucky and much of the central Appalachians. In fact, the
airmass intrusion behind Cindy will bring some welcomed cooler
temps to start next week with highs in the 70s expected through
Wednesday.

One difference in the forecast might be on Monday afternoon as the
most recent 12Z Euro and GFS has brought a weak wave dropping far
enough south to bring a small chance of showers and a
thunderstorm. This is a change to the model trends so am more
inclined to keep the dry forecast inherited from the super blend.
Otherwise, the extended features dry weather and slightly cooler
high temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
ISSUED AT 149 PM EDT THU JUN 22 2017

Showers and MVFR ceilings at the leading edge of the moisture
advection associated with Tropical Storm Cindy will continue to
advance northeast across the region. Ceilings then look to raise
up this evening, before potentially lowering again towards dawn.
Shower chances will be diminishing from southwest to northeast
this evening, as the first surge of moisture exits off to the
northeast. Low level wind shear will threaten later tonight, as
850 mb winds remain around 40 to 50 kts, while south to southeast
winds at the surface remain at around 5 kts or less. There will at
least be a threat of scattered showers and a few thunderstorms
into Friday, as the cold front begins to move in from the
west and northwest.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch from Friday afternoon through Saturday morning
for KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...SHALLENBERGER
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN


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