Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000
FXUS63 KJKL 280748
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
348 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

DEEP TROUGH AXIS IS WORKING ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS...WITH A FEW
FLURRIES STILL OCCURRING ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY IN COLD NORTHWEST
FLOW. THE FLURRIES WILL GRADUALLY WIND DOWN FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGH AROUND DAWN. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT THROUGH THE DAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN...WITH HIGHS ONLY MAKING IT INTO THE UPPER 30S
TO LOWER 40S. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH WILL BUILD IN OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT...WITH A VERY DRY COLUMN IN PLACE...SETTING THE STAGE FOR
LOWS DOWN IN THE MID TEENS IN THE VALLEYS...WHILE RIDGES STAY UP
IN THE LOW 20S.

THE HIGH WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY...AS A SHORT
WAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY
REGIONS. VERY DRY AIR IN PLACE SHOULD HOLD OFF MOST SHOWER
ACTIVITY UNTIL AFTER SUNDOWN IN THE NORTHWEST. HIGHS ON SUNDAY
WILL REBOUND TO THE LOW AND MID 50S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM EDT FRI MAR 27 2015

THERE IS GENERAL MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL MEAN PATTERN NEXT
WEEK...WITH FAIRLY FAST ZONAL FLOW...AND A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE
DISTURBANCES AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONTS BRINGING PERIODIC CHANCES
OF RAIN SHOWERS. WITH THIS TYPE OF PATTERN IT IS NOT SURPRISING
THERE ARE TIMING DIFFERENCES AMONG THE MODELS WITH THE SHORT WAVES
THAT WILL BE AFFECTING THE AREA NEXT WEEK.

A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE MS VALLEY AND AN ASSOCIATED
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL BE MAKING THEIR WAY TOWARDS KY SUNDAY
EVENING. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE FROM NW TO SE SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH RAIN SHOWERS BECOMING LIKELY ALMOST AREA WIDE SUNDAY
NIGHT. RAIN CHANCES WILL THEN DECREASE FROM NW TO SE DURING THE
DAY MONDAY.

AFTER THE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY SYSTEM...THE NEXT SHORT WAVE TO
AFFECT THE AREA LOOKS TO BE DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK...FOLLOWED BY YET ANOTHER SYSTEM AS WE HEAD TOWARDS NEXT
WEEKEND. THERE ARE AGAIN SIGNIFICANT TIMING DIFFERENCES...AND THUS
QUESTIONS ON WHEN TO REINTRODUCE RAIN CHANCES BACK IN THE
FORECAST. WILL FOLLOW A BLENDED MODEL APPROACH FOR THE MID TO LATE
WEEK SYSTEMS...WHICH WILL YIELD SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES MOST AREAS
WEDNESDAY...AND THEN CHANCE OR LIKELY PROBABILITIES FOR THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.

WITH THE ZONAL FLOW A FAIRLY MILD WEEK WILL BE IN STORE FOR THE
AREA...WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S FORECAST FOR TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 144 AM EDT SAT MAR 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN AS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS IN
ACROSS THE AREA. A FEW SNOW FLURRIES AND CEILINGS IN THE 3 TO 4K
FEET AGL RANGE WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
THROUGH DAWN. SKIES WILL THEN TURN CLEAR FOR THE REST OF THE
PERIOD. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST AT 5 TO
10 KTS THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT BY DUSK.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...SBH
AVIATION...GEOGERIAN


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