Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 250637 AAC
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
137 AM EST THU DEC 25 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 125 AM EST THU DEC 25 2014

HOURLY GRIDS WERE FRESHENED UP BASED ON RADAR AND OBSERVATION TRENDS.
THIS LED TO LITTLE CHANGE OVERALL FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. DRIZZLE
WAS INCLUDED FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY ON THURSDAY AS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNTIL AROUND OR A COUPLE OF HOURS PAST
SUNRISE...WHILE THE CHANCES FOR THE PRESENCE OF ICE IN THE CLOUDS
WILL DECREASE. THE CURRENT BAND OF SHOWERS...LIKELY FALLING AS SNOW
ABOVE 3000 FEET IS GRADUALLY DEPARTING THE CWA. THERE ARE SOME
RETURNS UPSTREAM OVER CENTRAL KY ALONG WITH AN AREA OF COLDER CLOUD
TOPS MOVING FROM WESTERN INTO CENTRAL KY. CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL
REMAIN WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
REMAINING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1043 PM EST WED DEC 24 2014

SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE CURRENTLY COVERING MUCH OF EASTERN
KY. THESE SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT TWO TO THREE HOURS BEFORE
BECOMING MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE...AND THEN EVENTUALLY TAPERING OFF
BY MORNING...AS DEPICTED BY THE LATEST HI RES MODEL DATA AS WELL AS
RADAR TRENDS. THE ISOLATED SHOWERS THAT WERE ADDED IN THE PREVIOUS
UPDATE WERE UPGRADED TO SCATTERED FOR THIS UPDATE AS A RESULT.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS WOULD SUGGEST THAT SOME DRIZZLE MAY BE POSSIBLE AS
WELL. PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD WIND GUSTS DYING DOWN BY THIS POINT...BUT
LATEST OBSERVATIONS ARE STILL SHOWING SOME GUSTS BETWEEN 15 AND 20
KNOTS ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN KY. AS SUCH...KEPT SOME HIGHER GUSTS IN
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...SLOWLY TAPERING OFF INTO TOMORROW MORNING.
OTHERWISE...TEMPS...DEW POINTS...AND CIGS SEEMED TO BE WELL ON TRACK.
LOADED THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA INTO THE NEAR TERM FORECAST TO
MAKE SURE THE TEMPS...DEW POINTS...AND WINDS WERE WELL REFLECTED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 716 PM EST WED DEC 24 2014

HEAVIEST SHOWERS AND WINDS ARE NOW HEADING EAST OF THE REGION. SOME
WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS ARE LESS ARE STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS...BUT OTHERWISE...THINGS SEEM TO BE DYING DOWN. WENT
AHEAD AND UPDATED THE SHORT TERM POPS BASED ON THE LATEST RADAR
TRENDS. ALSO UPDATED POPS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BASED BOTH ON
THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS UPSTREAM...AND THE LATEST HIRES MODEL DATA.
THIS ADDED ISOLATED CHANCES BACK INTO THE CWA DURING THE FIRST HALF
OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...BUT ALSO BUMPED SCATTERED SHOWERS BACK
DOWN TO ISOLATED COVERAGE DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT.
INCORPORATED THE LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA FOR TEMPS...DEW
POINTS...AND WINDS...INTO THE NEAR TERM FORECAST...BUT THESE
PARAMETERS SEEM TO BE IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 352 PM EST WED DEC 24 2014

SURFACE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY ALIGNED FROM FLEMINGSBURG TO BOONEVILLE
TO BARBOURVILLE. A SOLID LINE OF INTENSE SHOWERS HAS FORMED ALONG THE
BOUNDARY...WITH WIND GUSTS RANGING FROM 35 TO 50 MPH WITHIN THE LINE
FOR MOST LOCATIONS. MOST OF THESE WINDS ARE LASTING LESS THAN 10
MINUTES BEFORE DIMINISHING. WILL LET THE CURRENT WIND ADVISORY
HEADLINES RIDE THROUGH THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR AT
LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER. THE LINE WILL EXIT EASTERN KENTUCKY
BY AROUND 6 PM.

THERE WILL BE A LULL IN THE ACTION THIS EVENING...BEFORE THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THROUGH AND PROVIDES A RENEWED...BUT OVERALL
SMALLER CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. ICE CONTINUES TO LOOK
MARGINAL ALOFT...AND THE LOW LEVELS ARE FORECAST TO NOT COOL OFF
QUITE ENOUGH FOR SNOW...SO WILL ONLY MAINTAIN A SMALL CHANCE FOR
ELEVATIONS ABOVE 2500 FEET.

CLOUDS WILL LINGER AROUND THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF CHRISTMAS
DAY...BEFORE BREAKING UP FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST IN THE
AFTERNOON...AS RIDGING BUILDS IN. THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE MOSTLY
CLEAR...WITH VALLEYS LIKELY DIPPING INTO THE MID 20S AT LEAST.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM EST WED DEC 24 2014

MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH DY4...SUNDAY. THEREAFTER
MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE ENOUGH THAT CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST WANES
CONSIDERABLY THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD. ONE TREND MODELS
DO APPEAR TO AGREE ON HOWEVER IS AN INCREASINGLY AMPLIFIED UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN. MODEL CONSENSUS SUGGESTS THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MEAN...
GENERALLY DEEP AND BROAD WESTERN CONUS TOUGH WHICH OPENS UP INTO A
SOUTHWEST FLOW REGIME ALOFT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY REGION. MODELS
ADVERTISE A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES KICKING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST...
AND/OR BAJA. IF CORRECT THIS SHOULD KEEP OUR WEATHER GENERALLY
UNSETTLED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

FOR SENSIBLE WEATHER...AFTER A VERY WARM START TO THE EXTENDED WE
SHOULD EXPECT A GRADUALLY COLDER PATTERN WITH TIME. THIS COMBINED
WITH AN INCREASINGLY ACTIVE SOUTHERN STREAM MAY SET US UP FOR SOME
INTERESTING WEATHER BEFORE OR BY THE FIRST OF THE YEAR...BUT AGAIN
OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS LOW AFTER DY4. OUR FIRST SYSTEM WILL BE
WARM...WITH SHOWERS OVERSPREADING THE AREA AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH LATE THIS WEEKEND. THEREAFTER OUR WEATHER BECOME MORE
UNCERTAIN. THE 0Z ECMWF...WITH SOME SUPPORT FROM THE CANADIAN
SUGGESTS A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA...KEEPING OUR WEATHER UNSETTLED THROUGH MONDAY. BUT
WHAT HAD BEEN A VERY CONSISTENT ECMWF HAS NOW COME IN WITH A FASTER
SECONDARY WAVE FOR MONDAY...SIMILAR TO THE GFS BUT NOT NEARLY AS
PROGRESSIVE. BOTTOM LINE IS THAT CONFIDENCE IS LOW THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED...WITH A MODEL BLEND HANGING ONTO SOME
LOWS POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD AND GRADUALLY COOLER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 130 AM EST THU DEC 25 2014

AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WORKS ACROSS THE REGION AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE REMAINS...AND DRIZZLE AND SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG WITH
CIGS IN THE MVFR/FUEL ALTERNATE RANGE WILL LINGER THROUGH ABOUT
12Z. ANY LINGERING LIGHT PRECIP SHOULD END BETWEEN 12Z AND 18Z. MVFR
CIGS SHOULD LINGER AS LONG AS 18Z OR LATER IN THE EAST...BUT AS
RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE AREA...CIGS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR FROM WEST TO
EAST. WINDS WILL REMAIN SOUTHWEST TO WEST SOUTHWEST FOR THE FIRST 12
HOURS OF THE PERIOD AND THEN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AS THE CENTER
OF HIGH PRESSURE NEARS.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JP
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...RAY
AVIATION...JP






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