Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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000
FXUS63 KJKL 251754
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
154 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1000 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

CLOUDS ARE COMING IN A TAD QUICKER THAN FORECAST SO MADE A MINOR
UPDATE TO SPEED UP THE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND TO TWEAK NEAR
TERM TEMPS...WHICH HAVE BEEN A LITTLE SLOW TO RISE IN THE FOGGY
SPOTS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 700 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

JUST A QUICK UPDATE TO FINE TUNE THE TEMPS...DEWPOINTS...AND SKY
COVER INTO MID MORNING BASED ON THE LATEST OBS AND TRENDS. THESE HAVE
BEEN SENT TO THE NDFD AND WEB SERVERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

06Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE STILL IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER
ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY WHILE A WEAK COLD FRONT IS NOTED TO THE
NORTHWEST. THIS HIGH HAS KEPT THE CLOUDS AT BAY TONIGHT AND LED TO A
GOOD NIGHT FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. AS SUCH...COMBINED WITH NEARLY
CALM WINDS...A DECENT RIDGE TO VALLEY SPLIT IS UNDERWAY WITH TEMPS
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 30S IN THE EASTERN VALLEYS TO THE MID 40S ON
THE RIDGES. WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE VALLEYS FALLING TOWARD THE
DEWPOINTS WE ARE SEEING PATCHY FOG FORMATION. THIS FOG SHOULD KEEP
MOST OF THE COLD SPOTS FROM PICKING UP ANY FROST EARLY THIS
MORNING...BUT IT CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT AWAY FROM RIVERS...
CREEKS...AND OTHER BODIES OF WATER.

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ALOFT WITH A QUIET WEATHER PERIOD
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THEY ALL FLATTEN OUT A SOUTHERN PLAINS RIDGE IN
RESPONSE TO A FAIRLY DEEP TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND
INTO NEW ENGLAND. HEIGHTS OVER THE REGION WILL REMAIN SIMILAR DURING
THIS TRANSITION BEFORE TICKING UP IN THE TROUGH/S WAKE ON SUNDAY AS
SOME RIDGING OOZES EAST INTO OUR AREA. THERE WILL BE SOME WEAK
ENERGY PASSING OVER EAST KENTUCKY TODAY IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE
TROUGH MOVING BY TO THE NORTH...BUT IT SHOULD NOT AMOUNT TO MUCH WX
WISE. GIVEN THE MODEL SIMILARITIES HAVE FAVORED THE NAM12 FOR
FORECAST SPECIFICS.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE ANOTHER COUPLE DRY AND PLEASANT DAYS
SANDWICHING A QUIET NIGHT. A COLD DRY FRONT WILL BRING MAINLY HIGH
AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS TO EASTERN KENTUCKY LATER TODAY AND EARLY
TONIGHT BEFORE CLEARING LATE. SUNDAY WILL LIKELY BE AS WARM AS
TODAY...OR A TAD WARMER...EVEN POST FRONTAL OWING TO A RETURN OF
MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS.

WITH THE TEMPERATURE...DEWPOINT...AND WIND GRIDS THE CONSSHORT...AND
ITS BC VERSION...WERE USED AS A STARTING POINT THROUGH THE FIRST 18
TO 24 HOURS OF THE FORECAST AND THE SUPERBLEND THEREAFTER. DID MAKE
SOME CHANGES TO BETTER REFLECT THE...AT LEAST MINOR...RIDGE VALLEY
DIFFERENCES ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA AGAIN TONIGHT.
POPS THOROUGH THE PERIOD WERE KEPT LOW...IN LINE WITH THE VALUES FROM
THE MOS GUIDANCE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

WHILE CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH ON A FRONTAL PASSAGE TUESDAY/TUESDAY
NIGHT...MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON THE SPEED OF THE FRONT...MAKING
THE CHALLENGE IN THIS FORECAST WHEN WILL PRECIPITATION ARRIVE IN
EASTERN KENTUCKY. THE OTHER CONCERNS REVOLVE AROUND THE LATE
WEEK/NEXT WEEKEND PERIOD AS MODELS CONTINUE TO BE ALL OVER THE PLACE
WITH VARIOUS SCENARIOS...ALL INVOLVING A COLDER AIRMASS. THE 00Z
ECMWF CERTAINLY DID NOT MAKE THINGS ANY EASIER AS IT NOW HAS A CUT
OFF LOW OVER TENNESSEE BY WEEKS END. CLEARLY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IS NOT GREAT AS WE HEAD TOWARDS THE WEEKEND.

FORTUNATELY...THE FIRST PART OF THE FORECAST CAN BE AGREED UPON AS
MID/UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SPRAWLS ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY. WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SUNDAY
NIGHT...SHOULD SHOULD YIELD FAIRLY GOOD RIDGE/VALLEY SPLITS AS
VALLEYS FALL INTO THE LOW/MID 40S WHILE RIDGES STAY A TAD MILDER
WITH THE SOUTHERLY WINDS IN THE LOW 50S. REGARDLESS...TEMPERATURES
WILL RESPOND QUICKLY ON MONDAY WARMING TO AROUND 80 BY THE
AFTERNOON. MODELS REMAIN FAR TOO AGGRESSIVE ON MOISTURE RETURN AND
HAVE KEPT DEWPOINTS LOWER...CLOSER TO MOS GUIDANCE.

TUESDAY NIGHT WILL FEATURE FAIRLY MILD CONDITIONS AS WE REMAIN AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. ON TUESDAY...GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO
DIFFER ON THE SPEED OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE 00Z GFS
REMAINS THE FASTER SOLUTION BRINGING THE FRONT INTO EASTERN KENTUCKY
BY 00Z WEDNESDAY. THE ECWMF KEEPS THE FRONT TO OUR WEST THROUGH THIS
TIME. GIVEN THE FASTER POSSIBILITY...HAVE INCREASED POPS A BIT IN
OUR WESTERN ZONES...AND BROUGHT SOME LOWER POPS A BIT FARTHER EAST.
IT LOOKS LIKE A SURE BET BY TUESDAY NIGHT...MOST AREAS WILL SEE SOME
RAIN AS THE FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA...AND WILL MAINTAIN THE
LIKELY POPS. STILL LOOKS LIKE MEAGER INSTABILITY...SO WILL MAINTAIN
NO THUNDER AS WELL. MODELS ARE NOW AGREEING THAT THE FRONT WILL EXIT
THE AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH DRY CONDITIONS RETURNING BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN CROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING...KEEPING EASTERN KENTUCKY DRY. IT LOOKS
LIKE AN INITIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY DROP ACROSS THE AREA LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...AND COULD PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS.
HOWEVER...THIS IS THE POINT WHERE MODELS END UP ALL OVER THE PLACE.
FOR NOW...OPTING TO KEEP FRIDAY NIGHT ONWARD DRY...BUT GIVEN THE
LATEST ECMWF RUN...WE MAY NEED MORE POPS INTO THE WEEKEND AND
BEYOND. IF A WETTER SCENARIO PLAYS OUT...THIS MAY LIMIT FROST/FREEZE
POTENTIAL THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. IF A DRIER
SCENARIO PLAYS OUT...WE COULD SEE SOME PRETTY GOOD FROST COVERAGE
AND PERHAPS A FREEZE IN SOME AREAS. CERTAINLY THOSE WITH
AGRICULTURAL INTERESTS SHOULD CHECK BACK REGARDING NEXT WEEKENDS
FORECAST. FOR NOW...OPTING TO HEDGE ON TEMPERATURES AND NOT GO WITH
EITHER EXTREME AND STAY CLOSER TO CLIMATOLOGY UNTIL MODELS CAN REACH
BETTER AGREEMENT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 154 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

CLOUDS HAVE OVERSPREAD THE AREA AS A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS INTO THE
REGION...WITH MVFR CIELINGS OBSERVED MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF I-64.
THE LOWER CIGS MAY MAKE IT AS FAR SOUTH AS JKL...THUS THE TEMPO MVFR
CONDITIONS IN THAT TAF...BUT OTHERWISE CLOUDS SHOULD STAY VFR THIS
AFTERNOON. A LITTLE CONCERNED THAT LOW CLOUDS MAY REDEVELOP TONIGHT
AS HAPPENED LAST NIGHT IN A SIMILAR POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT IN
CENTRAL ILLINOIS. HOWEVER...MOISTURE IS VERY SHALLOW AND LOW LEVEL
WINDS STAY NORTHWESTERLY...NOT THE NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION WHICH
TYPICALLY BRINGS THE LOW CIGS. SO...WILL ONLY ADVERTISE SCATTERED
CLOUDS AND SOME MVFR FOG AT LOZ AND SME LATE TONIGHT FOR NOW.
TOMORROW SHOULD BRING CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...ABE
SHORT TERM...GREIF
LONG TERM...KAS
AVIATION...ABE




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