Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 281908
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
308 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 122 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

QUICK UPDATE THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY TO ADJUST FOR AFTERNOON
HIGHS. BASICALLY INCREASED TEMPS A BIT IN THE SOUTH...LOWERED A
DEGREE OR TWO IN THE NORTHEAST BASED ON TRENDS THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON. SFC DEW POINTS ARE ON THE RISE...RESULTING IN
CONDITIONS NOT QUITE AS COMFORTABLE AS THE PREVIOUS FEW DAYS. NO
OTHER CHANGES TO THE FORECAST ATTM.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1040 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

FORECAST IS IN GREAT SHAPE THIS MORNING...AS IS THE WEATHER.
SHORTWAVE RIDGING INDUCED BY APPROACHING TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE
PLAINS WILL KEEP OUT WEATHER NICE FOR ANOTHER DAY...THOUGH
MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE DUE TO RETURN FLOW THROUGH THE
DAY. SO IT MAY NOT FEEL QUITE AS COMFORTABLE AS THE PREVIOUS FEW
DAYS. UPDATED GRIDS FOR LATEST HOURLY TRENDS WHICH RESULTED IN FEW
IF ANY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST PACKAGE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 837 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

FRESHENED UP THE SKY COVER...TEMPERATURES...AND DEW POINTS TO
BETTER JIVE WITH THE CURRENT TRENDS IN OBSERVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY CENTERED NEAR THE EASTERN OHIO
VALLEY...WITH ANOTHER COOL NIGHT BEING ENJOYED ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY. MOST VALLEYS HAVE DIPPED DOWN INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S.
ALOFT...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE PLAINS...WITH
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW ROTATING NEAR THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST
TODAY...ALLOWING FOR WARMER AIR TO ADVECT IN ACROSS THE OHIO AND
TENNESSEE VALLEYS. HIGHS TODAY WILL REACH THE LOW TO MID 80S FOR
MOST LOCATIONS. MOST OF THE HIGHER RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SHOWS SOME
ISOLATED CONVECTION POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST TODAY...ALTHOUGH
THEY DO LOOK A BIT OVERDONE ON THE MOISTURE...AND WITH HEIGHTS
BUILDING ALOFT...THINK THAT THE CAP SHOULD HOLD MOST CONVECTION AT
BAY BESIDES A STRAY POP UP.

A WEAK 850 MB LOW LEVEL JET WILL ENGAGE ACROSS THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY TONIGHT...WHICH WILL BRING A MORE SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN
MOISTURE TO EASTERN KENTUCKY. LOWS TONIGHT WILL MAINLY BE IN THE
60S...ALTHOUGH EXPECT THAT SOME OF THE MORE SHELTERED VALLEYS IN
THE FAR EAST WILL DIP DOWN INTO THE 50S ONCE AGAIN.

THE INCREASED MOISTURE AND A WEAKER CAP ON SATURDAY WILL ALLOW
FOR THE THREAT OF AT LEAST ISOLATED CONVECTION...PARTICULARLY IN
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE CAP IN THE EAST MAY
STILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO STAVE OFF ANY POP UPS...SO WILL
MAINTAIN DRY WEATHER...AS MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS. HIGHS
WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID 80S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

OUR FORECAST IS A TAD BIT MUDDLED AS THE AREA LIES IN BETWEEN TWO
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CORES...ONE LOCATED OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
AND THE OTHER OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. WEAK SHORTWAVES IN
BETWEEN THESE RIDGE CORES WILL AFFECT US THROUGH TIME. MOISTURE
WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS WELL AS SOUTHWEST FLOW AROUND THE RIDGE
CORE TO OUR EAST TAPS INTO SOME TROPICAL MOISTURE...INCLUDING
POTENTIALLY SOME MOISTURE FROM WHAT IS NOW TROPICAL STORM ERIKA
LATE IN THE PERIOD.

SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL FEATURE THE THREAT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND STORMS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW NOW
LOCATED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF SHIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS OUR REGION.
ONCE THIS PASSES...THE THREAT FOR RAIN DIMINISHES WITH PERHAPS AN
AFTERNOON SHOWER OR STORM POSSIBLE OVER OUR HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG
THE VIRGINIA AND TENNESSEE BORDERS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. RAIN
CHANCES...ALBEIT LOW...WILL THEN CREEP BACK INTO THE FORECAST
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS MODELS INDICATE A REINFORCING SHOT OF
MOISTURE MOVING BACK NORTH INTO THE AREA PERHAPS ASSOCIATED WITH
ERIKA...ALTHOUGH THERE IS NOT REAL CONSENSUS ON WHERE THAT SYSTEM
WILL BE BY THAT FAR OUT IN TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 122 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
EXCEPTION MAY BE SOME MVFR FOG AT SME AND LOZ AS MOISTURE BEGINS
TO SEEP BACK INTO THE AREA. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
BUT WITH AN INCREASINGLY SOUTHERLY TENDENCY TO THEM BY SATURDAY.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...RAY
SHORT TERM...GEOGERIAN
LONG TERM...ABE
AVIATION...RAY



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