Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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398
FXUS63 KJKL 280654
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
254 AM EDT Sun May 28 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 254 PM EDT SUN MAY 28 2017

Deep convection has shifted off to our south with much more
limited instability across eastern Kentucky. A few showers have
managed to pop up over Pike county in the last few hours, but
these should be short lived as subsidence takes over and spread in
on the north side of the convection to the south. CAMs support
very little convective activity through the upcoming day. In fact,
there is very little forcing or triggers to be had. A vort max
sliding northeast across the area could spark some convection, but
instability is limited, so the better threat may be to our north
or northeast. In the wake of the vort max, not much expected
through the afternoon and early evening hours. A cold front
advancing across the Ohio river valley this evening and overnight
will bring the best shot at a few showers or storms, but
instability never fully recovers and models have very limited
activity over eastern Kentucky with most of the instability and
moisture being taken up by the storms to our south near the Gulf
coast. With this said, conditions for flash flooding look very
weak today/tonight and thus, we have decided to cancel the flash
flood watch. The storm prediction center has also downgraded the
area to a marginal mainly due to the lack of airmass recovery
today. If instability can build enough, we could still see a few
severe storms, but overall, the risk appears to be diminished
today. This is good news for those areas recovering from
yesterdays heavy rain and storms.

As the front shifts south early Monday morning, so will the rain
chances, leaving behind a dry Monday. We should also see slightly
less humid conditions as well.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 254 PM EDT SUN MAY 28 2017

Long term discussion will follow shortly.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
ISSUED AT 223 AM EDT SUN MAY 28 2017

A tricky forecast overnight as some low stratus or fog may try to
form after the recent rain. In fact, KJKL already has a low cig
and KLOZ has one now. The other sites are still VFR. For now will
go IFR at these sites and go VFR elsewhere, but may need to amend
if the IFR conditions spread. Ceilings will go back to VFR on
Sunday and should stay that way through Sunday night. A cold front
will bring a threat of a few showers or storms Sunday evening, but
confidence in coverage is too low to include in TAFs at this
point.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KAS
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...KAS



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