000
FXUS63 KJKL 171819
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
219 PM EDT FRI MAY 17 2013

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 220 PM EDT FRI MAY 17 2013

A CUTOFF AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER FAR WRN KY WITH
BANDS OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING NORTH AND
NORTHEAST FROM THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION. THIS WAVE IS SCHEDULED TO
MOVE EAST TO MIDDLE KY BY LATE SAT NIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP ERN KY UNDER
THE THREAT OF NEARLY CONTINUOUS BANDS OF RAIN. TEMPS WILL REMAIN ON
THE COOL SIDE FOR MIDDLE MAY WITH HIGHS ON SAT ONLY ABLE TO SQUEEZE
OUT MIDDLE 70S WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW ADVECTING WARM AIR INTO THE
REGION TO COUNTER THE CHILLING EFFECT OF THE RAIN. FCST DWPTS IN THE
LOWER 60S INDICTE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR THUNDER...HOWEVER THE SKINNY
CAPE AND CLOUD COVER WILL PRECLUDE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS AND
LIKELY NOTHING SEVERE. THE OVERCAST SKY WILL ALSO HELP TO HOLD
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S. IN BETWEEN PERIODS OF RAIN THE
OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL COOL ENUF FOR PATCHY FOG TO FORM. THE FOG COULD
BECOME RATHER DENSE WITH OCCASIONAL VISIBILITIES LESS THAN A QUARTER
OF A MILE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 428 AM EDT FRI MAY 17 2013

THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH AN AMPLIFIED AND UNSETTLED
LONG WAVE PATTERN TO TAKE PLACE ACROSS THE CONUS THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
THE FIRST SYSTEM OF INTEREST WILL BE A CUTOFF LOW THAT WILL DAMPEN
AND SLOWLY EXIT OFF TO EAST THROUGH MONDAY. WILL STAY WITH THE GIVEN
LIKELY POPS ON SUNDAY WITH THE COMBINATION OF DAYTIME HEATING AND
THE UPPER LOW STILL CLOSE ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR CONVECTION. PWATS WILL
BE AROUND 1.5 INCHES AND WITH SLOWER STORM MOTIONS...AT LEAST MINOR
FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS WILL BE A THREAT.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL THEN DIMINISH INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
SHORT WAVE RIDGING BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. MEANWHILE...TROUGHING
ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS WILL CULMINATE INTO ANOTHER CUTOFF LOW. THE
MODELS DIFFER WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THIS FEATURE...SO HAVE JUST USED
A BLEND OF THE OUTCOMES...WHICH YIELDS THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME...WITH SOLID CHANCES
LINGERING THROUGH THURSDAY...AS THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT LOOKS TO
BE SLOW TO EXIT.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO AVERAGE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH HIGHS RETURNING TO THE 80S ONCE AGAIN FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 118 PM EDT FRI MAY 17 2013

AN UPPER LOW OVER MISSOURI WILL PINWHEEL CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ACROSS
THE AREA TODAY AND THIS EVENING. THE AREA SHOULD STAY MOSTLY VFR
DURING THE DAY. SOME OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS MAY DROP THE CIG AND VSBY
TO MVFR. THE WEATHER SHOULD REMAIN UNSTABLE FOR A FEW DAYS. EXPECT
THE FOG TO BE MORE WIDE SPREAD IN THE MORNING AND THE RAIN SHOULD
ENTER THE FORECAST SOONER.


&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DUSTY
LONG TERM...GEOGERIAN
AVIATION...DUSTY