Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 230759

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson KY
359 AM EDT SAT JUL 23 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 359 AM EDT SAT JUL 23 2016

Lingering light shower activity has just about wrapped up early
this morning across the Lake Cumberland region. Should continue to
see this trend as peak diurnal cooling approaches and only sign of
any lift sits across southern Kentucky into the Tennessee Valley
in the form of a convective outflow boundary. Areas of dense fog
will continue in the deeper valleys this morning and in locations
that received appreciable rainfall amounts Friday, especially
across northeast Kentucky into the Big Sandy region in the
presence of better clearing. Will see this mix out come mid
morning as turbulent mixing ensues.

Main focus for isolated to scattered thunderstorms today will come
by way of the aforementioned outflow boundary. This should spell
the best precipitation chances beginning along the Tennessee
border as diurnal heating takes place in a sultry airmass. Locales
along the Virginia border will see a slightly better potential for
storms as well due to the aid of orographic forcing. Not much if
anything to work with in terms of forcing aloft as the eastern
extent of central through southern U.S. ridging remains overhead.
Given Friday`s rainfall, high temperatures should remain capped in
the lower 90s, still leading to heat indices near the century

Upper forcing for ascent will be lacking once again for Sunday as
upper ridging strengthens across the region, leading to greater
thicknesses and subsequently hotter temperatures given a likely
lower coverage in rainfall. Heat indices could very well approach
heat advisory criteria (105F) Sunday afternoon, but this will be
dependent on the presence of any rainfall, which will be dependent
on any remnant outflow boundaries near eastern Kentucky. Terrain
induced storms may once again develop, but likely not covering
enough real estate to alleviate the significant heat likely to

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 359 AM EDT SAT JUL 23 2016

Broad elongated high pressure will remain across the southern half
of the conus throughout much of the extended...keeping deamplified
troughing and shortwaves passing across the northern half. The Ohio
River Valley will find itself oscillating between the two main
features, being affected by multiple shortwaves, before a slightly
deeper trough moves into the upper midwest during the midweek. This
will result in height falls across KY which will persist into next
weekend as an even larger/deeper trough moves into the region,
rounding out the period.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will start off the period Monday
as a cold frontal boundary drops southward to the Ohio River by late
in the day. This boundary stalls out and will tend to keep any
convection focused across the region through mid week. What`s left
of the boundary lifts northward late Wednesday, just as another
slightly more amplified trough begins to drop into the region from
the northwest by late Thursday or Friday, pushing the frontal zone
back closer to the Ohio River while remaining focused north of the
CWA, as well as enhancing precip chances, especially during the
afternoon/evening hours.

From here, more drastic height falls will take hold as the deepest
of the troughs moves through the region through the weekend. Despite
no frontal boundaries passing through the region, overall
instability and upper level forcing will continue to drive scattered
to numerous convection across eastern KY through the weekend.

The loss of mid and upper level ridging combined with daily
convection will help keep our high temperatures close to normal for
this time of the year, or possibly slightly cooler as we head into
the weekend. But overall our weather will remain quite muggy.
Overnight lows will be warm, running a little above normals, in
the upper 60s and low 70s.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)

IFR fog was currently plaguing SYM while MVFR visibilities were in
place at SME. All sites should see at least MVFR conditions as
clearing works south across eastern Kentucky, with likely IFR
conditions lasting for a period at SYM and developing at SME.
Should see VFR conditions return by 12-13Z Saturday as low
clouds/moisture mix out. Best chance of seeing thunder will reside
at LOZ/SME by early Saturday afternoon. Will maintain VCTS for now
given sparse coverage currently expected, while negating mention
elsewhere for now. VFR conditions should persist through 06Z
Sunday as winds remain light near or below 5 knots.


.JKL Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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