Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, KY

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FXUS63 KJKL 152359
AFDJKL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Jackson KY
759 PM EDT Sun Oct 15 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 759 PM EDT SUN OCT 15 2017

Strong, fast moving cold front is a little more than half way
through the forecast area. Expectations are that it will exit
eastern Kentucky between 9 and 10 p.m. this evening. Winds along
and just behind the front have been gusting as high as 40-45 mph
through the late afternoon and early evening. But there seems to
have been a decreasing trend over the last hour or so. There has
also been some isolated thunder through the evening as well. But
the threat of thunder should end in the next hour or so. Frontal
boundary will continue to push east overnight as northwesterly
winds gradually drop off. Clouds will also linger until closer to
dawn. Adjusted PoPs, sfc temps and dew points for the early
evening update, mainly in an attempt to better capture changes in
sensible elements associated with the frontal zone as it pushes
across the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 317 PM EDT SUN OCT 15 2017

A broken line of showers well ahead of the approaching cold front is
moving across the area. The lack of instability has limited the
strength of the convection, but instability is a little greater in
the southwest part of the area where 18Z SPC mesoanalysis has
CAPE over 1000 j/kg. Some lightning has shown up southwest of the
forecast area in far northern TN near the KY border so will
continue to carry a slight chance of thunder for the next few
hours. Other scattered showers are near the front which has passed
SDF and CVG. There are some gusty winds with the front with a
peak wind of 36 knots at CVG and 39 knots at SDF.

The front will move quickly southeast across the area late this
afternoon and early evening and be southeast of KY by around 00Z.
The shower chance will diminish quickly after the frontal passage
and much cooler air will spread into the area. While fog will
likely limit frost formation Monday night, there may still be some
scattered frost in some areas.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 317 PM EDT SUN OCT 15 2017

There is good model agreement with the evolution of the overall
upper level flow across the United States during the coming week.
Initially there will be weak troughing in the east, and weak ridging
over the southwest U.S. This will transition to a slightly wavy
zonal flow, but by the end of the week as troughing develops in the
west, upper ridging will build in the east. Overall this means an
extended period of dry weather for us, with warming temperatures.

At the beginning of the period we will still be under the influence
of the cool air mass which will overspread the area Sunday night,
and frost remains a possibility in a few spots Wednesday morning.
However on Tuesday the surface high will begin a gradual shift to
the east and this will combine with a building upper level ridge
late in the week to bring a warming trend, with temperatures well
above normal by the end of the week. Very warm weather will continue
through next weekend with readings around 10 degrees above normal.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
ISSUED AT 759 PM EDT SUN OCT 15 2017

Strong, fast moving cold front is a little more than half way
through the forecast area. Expectations are that it will exit
eastern Kentucky between 9 and 10 p.m. this evening. Winds along
and just behind the front have been gusting as high as 40-45 mph
through the late afternoon and early evening. But there seems to
have been a decreasing trend over the last hour or so. There has
also been some isolated thunder through the evening as well. But
the threat of thunder should end in the next hour or so. Frontal
boundary will continue to push east overnight as northwesterly
winds gradually drop off to around 5 kts and shower activity comes
to an end. Generally MVFR CIGS will linger until around dawn.
Northwest winds will increase again as diurnal effects kick in,
generally about 10 kts.

&&

.JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...RAY
SHORT TERM...SBH
LONG TERM...SBH
AVIATION...RAY



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